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f048c30a66a587a26758040460b626233e8535bf
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0xe3b1bc389210504ebcb9cffe4b0ed06ccac50561e0f24abb6379984cec030f00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
1
presidential-election-winner-2024
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
52,747,346
52,747,820
10102e4598fb9962ed00b0238207827b6a382810
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x840746cbbb151954ff531a7c29588998b0d75806508bae0a0d7bc0fc5e36a700
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
1
trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary
Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote?
52,800,086
53,760,196
619a9fe65378c3ae9ef17937d8f8fc42f70935bd
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x99ca03b50ee65e84362d66964f9f0f5ae41939b86484f8e22c8f9440335dad00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
1
super-bowl-winner-2024
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?
53,400,757
53,416,037
e5353ad629e43b10ac452c23d3cfb7589dc34d99
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x909221dd5a742f2d5640022fa28989f4a737e7e3727f1664f3008a871636d766
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
yes
1
super-bowl-mvp
Will Patrick Mahomes win 2024 Super Bowl MVP?
53,425,681
53,425,681
337559e5c81be2b2b086e0e34d649a772d1f1056
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x079fd5cd4c762657700526c9c8066445c71be8277ff4978662905dcb3b9fda58
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
0.973766
super-bowl-winner-2024
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?
53,425,692
53,425,692
2c33e4104252ae5d0874855381cc8799d61f0d70
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x5e596465dca57c10c8b175f901974e2de2877498410b0210d0a21b57e14da000
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
1
dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?
53,769,968
53,780,493
5c884cb9d8f67cec802658c0e58c8861e5845847
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x1a4a25d45ef3a9e7d897579e6f85bc9296c2c94d99b50ca3640a325197f7785d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
0.295775
dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?
54,284,589
54,284,589
15976f242dc42f71e75a140fb8c0ae6da7dec2e1
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0xe619ee258c7c51de584bc9f1d251ef94ae479c5faaed33f43d4d434a8e662fbf
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
0.664783
first-place-in-california-senate-primary
Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary?
54,506,209
54,672,866
eb3c537ac0172f1f88b1c06efdc2df267cea50c7
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x40d59bbfbd74a384ba16fa34703b60f47cf731a57e379d01fba3e35ed6479dbc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
yes
1
oscars-best-animated-feature-film
Will Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film?
54,518,365
54,518,365
7ea19296cde73579c36fcab65ae23db4f7aa1d88
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x717e74a033011a3f6f0ed5a972954f8a00d44e20bd24159984aeccbbff7ef896
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
1
oscars-best-animated-feature-film
Will The Boy and the Heron win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film?
54,518,365
54,518,365
0f8f88373e2962b5633aeca51bdcc10ce6eb4e44
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0xc6ea348dce1867d63836bf12bde5b46acd0b9af0713db61f104ffaf9b6402e88
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
yes
1
oscars-2024-best-actor
Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor?
54,518,365
54,518,365
038afcebea7fee326ca0a259a78b6b9cd60b2223
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x92b7766d144e1670924646a23c44ff314b804f253539cba5de53aa496b6e373c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
0.545381
first-place-in-california-senate-primary
Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary?
54,672,891
55,525,564
49ba6af18307abf29133df9de0cd6d6e182ad86e
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x3dc1ae67a338dd88cd605e3eb12ba5da7258ac9945d373f8d101485af2016800
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
1
first-place-in-california-senate-primary
Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary?
54,672,903
55,523,297
84c16401572f05efdf7ae7563d337342fa8d8437
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0xfca4df6ab43272d0f355550faeecd926b4a39f7b7307dde14217197b26d655e9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
0
california-senate-primary-margin-of-victory
Will Schiff win the California Senate Primary?
54,672,952
54,751,449
be7f88e0bc187f0dc66477432569a0e758b468cf
0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c
0x7bbd234927ed3121f12ad902b827e5c58930e734990567b850da2a51af3042b9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0 2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06 3. Question: SEC approves first sp...
no
1
march-madness-how-many-1-seeds-in-final-four
March Madness 2024: Will no #1 seeds make it to the Final Four?
55,277,692
55,277,692
d1632ff6ea82fa9f97a4910d50dc54094da5e41c
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0x1ba906e40b7700d097f8a63f545a0268a7c3050d6fd27cce14cb292c34c4a8e5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?
60,441,388
60,441,388
4b755f82c3a51bf1d13144fa50ca8dc839d8d162
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0x8fb661f60c235904919106b417ab4180b7b0e1ab02029ffcd7b1775eb804bcc3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target mark...
yes
1
how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week
Will Trump post 46-49 times this week?
60,679,398
60,679,398
ae066703af5c827948c49c0d58cb233898694d33
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xf1f674d4a8a9c659ef6db8a7ec530af2ca57a9e8dd8a7e5bb9e5894a194fa510
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Trump twe...
yes
1
how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23
Will Trump tweet 7 times this week?
60,766,120
60,766,120
9d81d58b2c58298d0639d8e62673d52c40be7f5b
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xf10b06088d1b7a68a52a3f709264c957778488f39d1d28c7550c7e1b604a4261
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
alien-romulus-opening-weekend-box-office
Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend?
60,923,087
60,923,087
13130bbd205fd886cb50122196167f64ff07bfdb
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xf9d8ccb054515c5c05908a9cbc5a5da844b418ffd41db478b5b2358a357a04bc
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X?
61,092,840
61,092,840
1d79822e673399ee4c098bda07e66ed2d9c206f7
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xfd5b317784cf00b4bd63eb0a01b9ec8964e79b5268bb811e119ffa8f34797b24
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
bachelorette-winner
Will Jonathan Jonhnson win?
61,489,236
61,489,236
4a571aa8c2e4b317a0fc99a6143aa73c7ab87bc1
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0x82f725a0cbc65df35be7312b08c9ef4dd8bd46a33be58ecc83fd4ce4b33df17d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
caroline-ellison-prison-time
Caroline Ellison sentenced to 36-47 months in prison?
62,237,785
62,237,785
2fd9fecad3e9db65c06021429527c0aa2465909e
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xf49de8b6f857ada46a59104305a040033255dfb3db06bbf1720fc89a5200df33
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
epl-chelsea-vs-brighton
Will Chelsea beat Brighton?
63,627,849
63,627,849
b9d827ef49e678878e62df2f44154e7489958300
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xac955bd7d224399bb49a8d6b0811cdfff48a7e66cb4d5856d842e7b874ba46a5
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
epl-wolves-vs-liverpool
Will Liverpool beat Wolves?
63,627,857
63,627,857
541a1177ec455df790f2e740d17fcd206e73c529
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0x13813f310d11d7d8d93244ca9c9c81722fb64140a2d526851505008832519c06
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
epl-arsenal-vs-leicester-city
Will Arsenal beat Leicester City?
63,627,859
63,627,859
de97d9cbf8fd489c15791dd33fe2caa5b7fb04d7
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0x05517aeb8a578100b47f5e13a676c6d109cacd49cf5a1b91c7188309833475c0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
no
1
hyperliquid-token-launch-wen
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in September?
63,627,864
63,627,864
26de8bbb019418de7eea656085dd488e806f48c8
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xb2d70919366e5ca31ee7cdbeb5ca0d68205b0a8c3e2f1abec97345545e5195c6
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
no
1
berachain-token-launch-wen
Will Berachain launch a token in September?
63,627,864
63,627,864
09b1c7f7fd80877725bf857224871dfcd56b228d
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xe9297af868a517eebd652813dbfda4b83277c3ff962264c9e198548034f6422c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
europa-league-bodo-glimt-vs-porto
Will Porto beat Bodo Glimt?
63,627,867
63,627,867
967194a3864d720d8501de681fb8b987a02e5c58
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xafe77052c605e761915e3f32b1d106136f50497c24bbe347dc406ac1b8c72323
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
hyperliquid-token-launch-wen
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in October?
63,792,610
63,792,610
8affee945d0cff25df06bfdc42cea548950e32ce
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xd625e0e9a3abf876489ac2f7beb8e51483075d60bbfa8e2a6daad60755dcb374
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
berachain-token-launch-wen
Will Berachain launch a token in October?
63,792,610
63,792,610
5c4e350bd23073e29e6e1a22cb42559e5f9cf204
0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f
0xc058c2c0228e7c00c14b65fd0ecbb379f455a0b049bce275f07df64dfab7fed1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th...
yes
1
epl-lei-ful-2025-01-18
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-18?
66,911,789
66,911,789
334813bd0b75f97183d3457e6b9fb749539a3f43
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x2421a6037fe1d5cd0818c66c0828ed95438269d17954648dcc6bfc37c3e4fe70
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name
Will the next Pope be named Benedict?
71,505,834
71,505,834
8ac85cce503fc4f88c5c5cf492d263fef73423e8
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x2d8fd37760d0c045db3f8f15e466d753a705ff764882754e8d56181875866228
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. O...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name
Will the next Pope be named Francis?
71,505,834
71,505,834
d13a57ae882b142e1f822cfd45341d304d8a67ed
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x7a50eb9e685ea7d3177d7a11bbd2456d0e86ea345bca0c934b09dc60511e8eb9
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will the next Pope ...
yes
1
what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from
Will the next Pope be from Asia?
71,505,834
71,505,834
33c5271fbdcd45a9ab0be03f4fcdd6d115d94224
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0xb906c3feb63c4de0e6c3d160bf7427b7877c0ef37ca2c1632f0a1a636c9db85e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from
Will the next Pope be from Africa?
71,505,834
71,505,834
a60ce371e4f8eca3dbbdb2c1e182477902143a88
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0xdb553ea306f2eb004b78817508c961e0aa7d3538de894187bd42737421cf220c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from
Will the next Pope be from South America?
71,505,834
71,505,834
b879cb0d577e4c52759dcb151c6e9bc883cab9f6
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0xff6cf61a2ee2f0be671e47f46fbbdfc04d996c059084196744b67da4bb0266f7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from
Will the next Pope be from Oceania?
71,505,834
71,505,834
66ae6df9609cf5de724fea6fe0787c7be31ae250
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x0bb805c339e04a175e4020526d5be7e1a39398928c2a1824591a73db5a7a2a1f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-11
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May 11?
71,505,835
71,505,835
e3b14bcc9e1591998adfce8a9020b06fe1423228
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x60b27f298c367a5ee13208f006a1daf32d354e26db8a286b01d3d80021d351aa
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-9
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on May 9?
71,505,835
71,505,835
19d3d058c85f87fbc1e92dbab0ba07f96d38b6f1
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x64023150e8db71a77d862cbbf100823c40f07fe65567d1d442c08d2dc5799b54
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on May 10?
71,505,835
71,505,835
95e7181c4ef66343ae7ed1874ffb225bfde2cca5
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0xacd4b2f1f739a7e105e2cda591ff7c2713233d51c13c4ebcfbd6641304b94a7a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name
Will the next Pope be named Pius?
71,505,835
71,505,835
85f0b006cdd9495a845337182b8b3ef5bf6fdc8b
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0xd3fea25e8f09e6a1c239741d3e8039df146fdb99339307d515f740ce82a0843e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name
Will the next Pope be named John Paul?
71,505,835
71,505,835
ba6101c740ef82cdd0b01ad3833a908a820f1b10
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0xecb6a5e33d64c2d8bfc0d741c937a6004093b0a02d40cbd3ba772ea1f8cadcc7
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
days-to-elect-the-next-pope
Will the next pop be elected in 3 days?
71,505,835
71,505,835
80e0cb3b5ebeec867c952e5195ffe412e7d503bd
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x80147cd287c4780b910f34de32b4d9bfeb1ddcb897d4047426b0c0fd8b776e86
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72–73°F on May 16?
71,633,658
71,633,658
c565e0d11df4896e29f0e5fcbad64de486d67f13
0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca
0x803cfe5fa40d0e6c8249b4cf454dbfef4b4ed775079afb663fc691943566ad67
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?...
yes
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-19
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 19?
71,753,237
71,753,237
67347faf9d1f7476232a8f41a2ab7d584a104742
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x68bea4ddcd459f0ae93cca6667011f98ea9c532ff3d8977300ef4315826e0e23
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
yes
1
ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01?
77,176,479
77,176,479
a2a8ad248a448961af90f78c2a046ecdde8f1298
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x8a65d6d3a472606b167bfa8544faba42a29616afb086884b883127955d3564ec
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "...
yes
1
uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02
Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02?
77,202,114
77,202,114
c2434dc8580f6e7183cc578000a5a40d9b8cc219
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x06f05725ec331f38ee0c5e048e342b1a20501ce7ffc2c4c2a82467c771ec1f8a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? Event: fl...
yes
1
fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05?
77,597,514
77,597,514
d83a9eba1082d9b8bb7204171194cd4553dc85ca
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x37ff58bf4cac638a8f33610858a54843638ad9690b70a707d76b80aef9e5c53d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19
Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19?
77,908,517
77,908,517
002e19cb8532fd63d84c6abde81857794b1dae4d
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xb2ee5288623d02b7e9a15ce7bf53a12ac1a4c38722d162d945b49a3506bb752d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25?
78,142,959
78,142,959
8da8fe39f26482e35e4cdc687987190e04404bd5
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x846b528390cacbe69011c56d68f76fb3c41a4e6dfe2392258efd99ea7d2f2b45
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26?
78,214,988
78,214,988
479d7e3dacaa8854f06ee42ee19f92a3dec2cd63
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x29841fb26ac4dfe9d971592a34499280c53018a9bd1fa4913aa1ab0a60e17e0d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
cdr-tor-juv-2025-10-29
Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29?
78,345,188
78,345,188
4d16a4eb9d0ba95de661066707dd7834a92725f0
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x29c50f94c61ed1048f4cf1ef58d00c42eec823ea5fa6de20ab7c7f98910d1595
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29?
78,345,188
78,345,188
37055c6671e0846c71d53aada5799bbafcbdd750
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x5acded5083567cca2d13f92df0c7e0af7d792b5ad68b764f1c5d72a3bebf3371
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29
Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw?
78,345,188
78,345,188
2340e9d71ab0cb04d888aadf9ff7f43a694e1ea1
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x5f56402167ff2bbd14f3691bfdf584aa085ff2b47ae85b7bfd33582611293054
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29
Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29?
78,345,188
78,345,188
5830786df133309d0f3133c103215edf3abbb8db
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x77e74e9a863f6cfb1edf0423f47d5482ff5456ff2ecc16596ee7299c9f7b3bce
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
dfb-dus-scf-2025-10-29
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
78,345,188
78,345,188
5563ed9f7247159af0c98292bcec4123624aca1a
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xb787143b4d93b7d7f31aef47892ed7fa9302cbc6814ea84a5540a2b3c4f8105c
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
cdr-por-vld-2025-10-29
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29?
78,345,188
78,345,188
96c01bca9eccead12369d59d30b3476f47c36baf
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xcd59de7edcee678c62d61a1b04d1320f71e9dd6da96ae0b38cd9e75879493088
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
cdr-azu-leg-2025-10-29
Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in a draw?
78,345,188
78,345,188
a7e2441655cb58780f376d27141c6223a1719bbe
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x694cd67d820e22002bf795e5691685726d0491c1d43b2db65477506f38c06faa
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29
Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29?
78,345,191
78,345,191
7a3289d52c883d14c69063091ca37a395df1a13f
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x719cac1d1b03282ec7db3851e703344cdf4925f6ead7417efeb7ef75452718fb
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
cdr-cie-co-2025-10-29
Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29?
78,345,191
78,345,191
9925a94b290bb31bf77693eb9392d7fe5c8f9f09
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x6cc7aa1d09bda0524d115d740f41105d49233cb63d61485f018f107a982715e2
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?
78,351,411
78,351,411
4aeb9994a30bd5c9cbf727328cdbd2613473d8fa
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xe8fff19ee3b3236eab94771532713dc1dfb2fcf811b8d737ec0d61ebecfe8084
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025?
78,351,411
78,351,411
b4ec7e3d38bfc24aa6512f77b3bcbeb62494d948
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x749f479c4f5498a13b66d6d96ce75e2ce83fe7c2b3cf054efdd56101b7b653f0
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
chi-ron-hen-2025-10-31
Will Henan FC win on 2025-10-31?
78,412,638
78,412,638
0fc4115be1ef2e2c02c0214245832310b446780d
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xcf9767c12be8c1b7620bdbe3fe2f317af269891db1b8bef826e086860b5e8fbe
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
spl-hil-sha-2025-10-31
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-10-31?
78,419,134
78,419,134
61a28d5507b27f09ef5c96ff8fa305b94b45a184
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x3b2d325f747302b3032d1046007f0274750458dec9d8cb7d802352bb662ec931
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
rus-csk-nov-2025-10-31
Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2025-10-31?
78,431,224
78,431,224
f36b05f6c2134b7abfcba5e5331d2eb41a9f3ad8
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x23c9101efb37263d6607542edf9c7d1899015571c6ab5654a1bda6e825c1f29d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2025-11-01?
78,449,041
78,449,041
b902beb3fa8a8ea07fac98a40a01d5a1a42c63d8
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xdb7d252b3e426a6a4a09a78c38c4c44e69adf90c99ba4bfb198ae5b10de065ec
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01
Will Changchun Yatai FC win on 2025-11-01?
78,449,041
78,449,041
101f294c632cca1afbdb54d4966c432c7ea903cc
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xe6b051d00684c0b77eeff21c6a1fd6298149d42bbaa576089b6d8cf317d44702
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01
Will Changchun Yatai FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?
78,449,041
78,449,041
bd7e01557f69e8ddd01edd667b16bdfc2e3f4a14
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xeeb6159ea3b97b20166ccad0b8c82e9aa2f969a7e04599cb1979202610b65443
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
chi-mei-ygb-2025-11-01
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2025-11-01?
78,455,425
78,455,425
13d710d963ba95ec6dfb0ce087a4f9ad8662af2b
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xa497879fa6951974311092a53f5959cd92fb68d076328f052195916ffef732da
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01
Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01?
78,457,589
78,457,589
3ea6ece67b6a2b0dac4219e0489e0016d1f2c36d
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xea80ffd068f792e6d3408f83b4fdbfb3ebb45132cc3d4f9eb5313a92e38606e1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
spl-nsr-fay-2025-11-01
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-11-01?
78,469,246
78,469,246
a42809ea3bef8d8448d3dee481a6a3f132ca752b
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x15120ee804e671c4a939a93470a83ce70e22d2b9cf3f3abd834cde0ac21b4510
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
mex-atl-tol-2025-11-01
Will Atlas FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
78,480,135
78,480,135
f56f7411e471264d4021c8c4b685b94550df432f
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x1cc11db2f1b5b7efab9c18ac9e2e3ab7b993855831747c8593f1aa5db857041a
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01
Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-01?
78,480,135
78,480,135
f1fc4849cc34c0d40307bcd7adbc65f9290a2d41
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x50f2dfd84b7ae4796dae5fecef86e848c6b8b82f3ab831ca471ae0d4f4382532
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01
Will CA Tucumán win on 2025-11-01?
78,480,135
78,480,135
ebd303c816d134973529c56cc4bdd1cf570db1ba
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x64330396b9b03405c6596a2f288c046748a69121ec38c4385a9f8d605cc88503
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
no
1
arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01
Will CA Independiente vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?
78,480,135
78,480,135
47b0eb1ee8f99a4b5f599ba685675647531dd43c
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x1a8fbafd2c3b2791b201a4810eeb6c3bcd9b5bbafcaa14b9e53f37e9ab061b88
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2...
yes
1
chi-hai-wsz-2025-11-02
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2025-11-02?
78,491,215
78,491,215
0953a9150efac58483a0002b863bfdd49bed2298
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x91a34e98c597ebb034fdbf349cc82b22d2b9eb9e80dfc2ffe6c845fa007a0b90
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19...
no
1
chi-hai-wsz-2025-11-02
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2025-11-02?
78,491,215
78,491,215
8d20ba8cd43bae324dd57d961cdcbbf7d1b81575
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x6ce282ad88f9b92538de28979ac50330669f89a6af67d5d6622dedf9e8bd02c1
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-202...
no
1
kor-suw-dae-2025-11-02
Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-02?
78,492,595
78,492,595
ffab56a00affa855ad328803e4b2e4b53f5549bc
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x6d94bbd67a20e9f86bccdb948ddc4cd4deae84a86d53e4d9c0f26fa43f57495e
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | C...
no
1
aus-ccm-wel-2025-11-02
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-11-02?
78,492,595
78,492,595
2483b3d175e13bff508b29d206b8a91dd7a1b576
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xc5fc8e51d7a57e93066411e4a8f6d147029a618be2d0263356fce701ec20f4ac
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-tor-j...
yes
0.834245
kor-suw-dae-2025-11-02
Will Suwon FC win on 2025-11-02?
78,492,595
78,492,595
de1658ee4cc5b031c1f24141a9994dd75eff2430
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xdcacd858a867ffff6651d774dbc47f62794e7250997bd64abb23d29129be8ced
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-tor-juv-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-b...
no
1
aus-ccm-wel-2025-11-02
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-02?
78,492,595
78,492,595
39bdfcfd3aab6bacda46d5340a634e5b8b780a3e
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x2dfc4994952f6c64c04c906fe878935cb93938e832b17ac7d748dadbb8703470
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-tor-juv-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw? ...
no
1
nor-ham-san-2025-11-02
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2025-11-02?
78,506,561
78,506,561
fff8f4611afefcc60e60d0e914472e1955e0e4b3
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x8820013b2875775c8400d0caf21d9b3bc40be8d2c5c4ca95427ea15e8c98df93
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr...
no
1
nor-kfu-fkh-2025-11-02
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2025-11-02?
78,506,561
78,506,561
5180def377cac63c278c7359b3b32f030a0e5443
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xd8a2e75099816d60d3607696bd7186e381fb3b99d49584f673197e73a96be4c8
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end...
yes
1
nor-ffk-kbk-2025-11-02
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2025-11-02?
78,506,561
78,506,561
c82eafba064dac679763c9dd6a59c3ac670716d7
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xd8a325d08aa614e0b40a3440bf7b1cbbbb9b64cc173a97f8c0d8765a64c83bed
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? | Event: dfb-dus-scf-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29...
yes
1
nor-ham-san-2025-11-02
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2025-11-02?
78,506,561
78,506,561
b1b320a82263fe4c787d98864f2cf73ead277631
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xf87dba978626820b8201e8cc57649ccb668d84c768065d4d9f8e55fa7ed1f6e4
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? | Event: dfb-dus-scf-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-por-vld-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in...
no
1
nor-ham-san-2025-11-02
Will Hamarkameratene vs. Sandefjord Fotball end in a draw?
78,506,561
78,506,561
d8c507cc0014bff71f7ecd7089874922c128bb95
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x0c310c0dd164e77c068f2a5ea99b48b2cf7570aea31965ce0bad2029efea1457
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-por-vld-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? | Event: cdr-azu-leg-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-...
yes
1
epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02?
78,507,494
78,507,494
516e673955c1b796f809b424bb49649b86c3ea12
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xc00d5ca4a6e429b5ea3d3381481e40f5ea36bb249c042b7c51f2ad03ee2f3c0d
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? | Event: cdr-azu-leg-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-cie-co-202...
no
1
epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02
Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
78,507,494
78,507,494
3a2658bbe7a0c5dea743f2bddc41a157ce2373e1
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x849471e396e6888926d8d216daf876e12b1e484c810863417479c1bdb6bdd09f
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-cie-co-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October...
no
1
lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-02?
78,510,505
78,510,505
af5155fb2da6d04729634e3598599abc4cb853a4
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0x8d552f04b0c90766c881a1bdad32c605bba642e21ae7d936c2cb0c50c78ca3fa
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-cie-co-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 3. Question: W...
no
1
lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02
Will Real Betis vs. Mallorca end in a draw?
78,521,407
78,521,407
8ec9f6bce2011fb08e7fbafa7f5c43540aeea112
0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0
0xfbcc6e58703681819f2c9d2b42eafb9632f059fa9ac2a40af780c2069f2fc611
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi...
no
1
lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02
Will Mallorca win on 2025-11-02?
78,521,407
78,521,407
19edead67983af31b407db07285903236db6bd54
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x2fde545271ab97b40ad1930ffc745a7a51d9663a54ff91a462e893c33a5c7f00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: None Target market: Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...}
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22?
71,828,841
71,828,841
871ad4edfa2fb7f9f0d2cb806860a74b816ead1d
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x651ad09eb00199a564bcd70629fd2e13c1471f11c6384429fa91398d12b32f00
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 Target market: Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et Predict the use...
no
1
ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET?
71,849,158
71,849,158
2af55dd677f323c14d2a4abbbf3afa198f73034b
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x4aed8c4c4a7b37054d030a43f87884b0bb7add12ff19a52084b1139c60489400
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23
Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on May 23?
71,869,227
71,869,227
8cc4611563d46256cda97cf5c005780aa26dea42
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x7cb36f0bf12f27eeac427f155fffa2dbee97c00f11de45eba4eb15d0b19205b3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or below on May 23?
71,899,826
71,899,884
7e7fad678e223ca18fbe22bdbd129039edcaffe6
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0xd892aa2b057892d5a77ae25811a71ed4fc3d05403d7dbdc82f9df2e1e6434b95
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
no
1
ethereum-price-may-23-5pm-et
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 23 at 5 PM ET?
71,899,831
71,899,831
b9ef5d716c78e4024cd980604a38c4e4b2b75457
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x0a5b764f8a74a544c4f69be7dad23c36a7fe873583ed87a56bb4779bcbc465bd
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57–58°F on May 23?
71,899,838
71,899,838
8165641ea76a54f77d2659f846ce15561218e2ff
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x4a732ed24abaea466d424e4b3b08f74f8fb5c213d9c07ad8d27df39733e70ca3
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59–60°F on May 23?
71,899,842
71,899,842
01956415f1e4f9ff8d2b82623919867cc2506b41
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x5349058139566c74c6e299d7736db5ea3b2bd6b02914095836f08926fc4ac043
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
no
1
ethereum-price-may-24-5pm-et
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 24 at 5 PM ET?
71,939,378
71,939,378
fc453641b14b667efb6c8cbd9f58c826d769b7d5
0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55
0x5a1546c606c72d28a776bad4c18243224f73975e52b9aab9dda07d47ab70e962
train
You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale.
User history: 1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0 2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ...
no
1
highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-24
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60–61°F on May 24?
71,939,382
71,939,419