sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
f048c30a66a587a26758040460b626233e8535bf | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0xe3b1bc389210504ebcb9cffe4b0ed06ccac50561e0f24abb6379984cec030f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 52,747,346 | 52,747,820 |
10102e4598fb9962ed00b0238207827b6a382810 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x840746cbbb151954ff531a7c29588998b0d75806508bae0a0d7bc0fc5e36a700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote? | 52,800,086 | 53,760,196 |
619a9fe65378c3ae9ef17937d8f8fc42f70935bd | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x99ca03b50ee65e84362d66964f9f0f5ae41939b86484f8e22c8f9440335dad00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | 53,400,757 | 53,416,037 |
e5353ad629e43b10ac452c23d3cfb7589dc34d99 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x909221dd5a742f2d5640022fa28989f4a737e7e3727f1664f3008a871636d766 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-mvp | Will Patrick Mahomes win 2024 Super Bowl MVP? | 53,425,681 | 53,425,681 |
337559e5c81be2b2b086e0e34d649a772d1f1056 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x079fd5cd4c762657700526c9c8066445c71be8277ff4978662905dcb3b9fda58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 0.973766 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | 53,425,692 | 53,425,692 |
2c33e4104252ae5d0874855381cc8799d61f0d70 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x5e596465dca57c10c8b175f901974e2de2877498410b0210d0a21b57e14da000 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 1 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend? | 53,769,968 | 53,780,493 |
5c884cb9d8f67cec802658c0e58c8861e5845847 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x1a4a25d45ef3a9e7d897579e6f85bc9296c2c94d99b50ca3640a325197f7785d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 0.295775 | dune-part-two-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend? | 54,284,589 | 54,284,589 |
15976f242dc42f71e75a140fb8c0ae6da7dec2e1 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0xe619ee258c7c51de584bc9f1d251ef94ae479c5faaed33f43d4d434a8e662fbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 0.664783 | first-place-in-california-senate-primary | Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary? | 54,506,209 | 54,672,866 |
eb3c537ac0172f1f88b1c06efdc2df267cea50c7 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x40d59bbfbd74a384ba16fa34703b60f47cf731a57e379d01fba3e35ed6479dbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-animated-feature-film | Will Spider-Man: Across the Spider Verse win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film? | 54,518,365 | 54,518,365 |
7ea19296cde73579c36fcab65ae23db4f7aa1d88 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x717e74a033011a3f6f0ed5a972954f8a00d44e20bd24159984aeccbbff7ef896 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 1 | oscars-best-animated-feature-film | Will The Boy and the Heron win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film? | 54,518,365 | 54,518,365 |
0f8f88373e2962b5633aeca51bdcc10ce6eb4e44 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0xc6ea348dce1867d63836bf12bde5b46acd0b9af0713db61f104ffaf9b6402e88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | yes | 1 | oscars-2024-best-actor | Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar for Best Actor? | 54,518,365 | 54,518,365 |
038afcebea7fee326ca0a259a78b6b9cd60b2223 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x92b7766d144e1670924646a23c44ff314b804f253539cba5de53aa496b6e373c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 0.545381 | first-place-in-california-senate-primary | Will Steve Garvey get first place in the California Senate Primary? | 54,672,891 | 55,525,564 |
49ba6af18307abf29133df9de0cd6d6e182ad86e | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x3dc1ae67a338dd88cd605e3eb12ba5da7258ac9945d373f8d101485af2016800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 1 | first-place-in-california-senate-primary | Will Adam Schiff get first place in the California Senate Primary? | 54,672,903 | 55,523,297 |
84c16401572f05efdf7ae7563d337342fa8d8437 | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0xfca4df6ab43272d0f355550faeecd926b4a39f7b7307dde14217197b26d655e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 0 | california-senate-primary-margin-of-victory | Will Schiff win the California Senate Primary? | 54,672,952 | 54,751,449 |
be7f88e0bc187f0dc66477432569a0e758b468cf | 0x07ad59e1c277d82b166e98585cd5eb36d17d4c0c | 0x7bbd234927ed3121f12ad902b827e5c58930e734990567b850da2a51af3042b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Epstein documents name Bill Gates? | Event: who-will-be-named-in-epstein-documents | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Event: bitcoin-etf-approved-by-jan-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.5578757396352573e-06
3. Question: SEC approves first sp... | no | 1 | march-madness-how-many-1-seeds-in-final-four | March Madness 2024: Will no #1 seeds make it to the Final Four? | 55,277,692 | 55,277,692 |
d1632ff6ea82fa9f97a4910d50dc54094da5e41c | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0x1ba906e40b7700d097f8a63f545a0268a7c3050d6fd27cce14cb292c34c4a8e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?
Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | 60,441,388 | 60,441,388 |
4b755f82c3a51bf1d13144fa50ca8dc839d8d162 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0x8fb661f60c235904919106b417ab4180b7b0e1ab02029ffcd7b1775eb804bcc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week?
Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target mark... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | 60,679,398 | 60,679,398 |
ae066703af5c827948c49c0d58cb233898694d33 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xf1f674d4a8a9c659ef6db8a7ec530af2ca57a9e8dd8a7e5bb9e5894a194fa510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Trump twe... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week-aug-23 | Will Trump tweet 7 times this week? | 60,766,120 | 60,766,120 |
9d81d58b2c58298d0639d8e62673d52c40be7f5b | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xf10b06088d1b7a68a52a3f709264c957778488f39d1d28c7550c7e1b604a4261 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | alien-romulus-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Alien: Romulus' gross less than $44m opening weekend? | 60,923,087 | 60,923,087 |
13130bbd205fd886cb50122196167f64ff07bfdb | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xf9d8ccb054515c5c05908a9cbc5a5da844b418ffd41db478b5b2358a357a04bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-august-23-30 | Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? | 61,092,840 | 61,092,840 |
1d79822e673399ee4c098bda07e66ed2d9c206f7 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xfd5b317784cf00b4bd63eb0a01b9ec8964e79b5268bb811e119ffa8f34797b24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | bachelorette-winner | Will Jonathan Jonhnson win? | 61,489,236 | 61,489,236 |
4a571aa8c2e4b317a0fc99a6143aa73c7ab87bc1 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0x82f725a0cbc65df35be7312b08c9ef4dd8bd46a33be58ecc83fd4ce4b33df17d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | caroline-ellison-prison-time | Caroline Ellison sentenced to 36-47 months in prison? | 62,237,785 | 62,237,785 |
2fd9fecad3e9db65c06021429527c0aa2465909e | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xf49de8b6f857ada46a59104305a040033255dfb3db06bbf1720fc89a5200df33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | epl-chelsea-vs-brighton | Will Chelsea beat Brighton? | 63,627,849 | 63,627,849 |
b9d827ef49e678878e62df2f44154e7489958300 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xac955bd7d224399bb49a8d6b0811cdfff48a7e66cb4d5856d842e7b874ba46a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | epl-wolves-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat Wolves? | 63,627,857 | 63,627,857 |
541a1177ec455df790f2e740d17fcd206e73c529 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0x13813f310d11d7d8d93244ca9c9c81722fb64140a2d526851505008832519c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | epl-arsenal-vs-leicester-city | Will Arsenal beat Leicester City? | 63,627,859 | 63,627,859 |
de97d9cbf8fd489c15791dd33fe2caa5b7fb04d7 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0x05517aeb8a578100b47f5e13a676c6d109cacd49cf5a1b91c7188309833475c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | no | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid launch a token in September? | 63,627,864 | 63,627,864 |
26de8bbb019418de7eea656085dd488e806f48c8 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xb2d70919366e5ca31ee7cdbeb5ca0d68205b0a8c3e2f1abec97345545e5195c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | no | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain launch a token in September? | 63,627,864 | 63,627,864 |
09b1c7f7fd80877725bf857224871dfcd56b228d | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xe9297af868a517eebd652813dbfda4b83277c3ff962264c9e198548034f6422c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | europa-league-bodo-glimt-vs-porto | Will Porto beat Bodo Glimt? | 63,627,867 | 63,627,867 |
967194a3864d720d8501de681fb8b987a02e5c58 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xafe77052c605e761915e3f32b1d106136f50497c24bbe347dc406ac1b8c72323 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid launch a token in October? | 63,792,610 | 63,792,610 |
8affee945d0cff25df06bfdc42cea548950e32ce | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xd625e0e9a3abf876489ac2f7beb8e51483075d60bbfa8e2a6daad60755dcb374 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain launch a token in October? | 63,792,610 | 63,792,610 |
5c4e350bd23073e29e6e1a22cb42559e5f9cf204 | 0x07af173c3e29c72d5294c6bc918aa767bf47ee5f | 0xc058c2c0228e7c00c14b65fd0ecbb379f455a0b049bce275f07df64dfab7fed1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? | Event: mens-basketball-gold-medal-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 46-49 times this week? | Event: how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 7 times th... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-ful-2025-01-18 | Will Fulham win on 2025-01-18? | 66,911,789 | 66,911,789 |
334813bd0b75f97183d3457e6b9fb749539a3f43 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x2421a6037fe1d5cd0818c66c0828ed95438269d17954648dcc6bfc37c3e4fe70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict?
Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | 71,505,834 | 71,505,834 |
8ac85cce503fc4f88c5c5cf492d263fef73423e8 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x2d8fd37760d0c045db3f8f15e466d753a705ff764882754e8d56181875866228 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis?
Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. O... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Will the next Pope be named Francis? | 71,505,834 | 71,505,834 |
d13a57ae882b142e1f822cfd45341d304d8a67ed | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x7a50eb9e685ea7d3177d7a11bbd2456d0e86ea345bca0c934b09dc60511e8eb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the next Pope ... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Asia? | 71,505,834 | 71,505,834 |
33c5271fbdcd45a9ab0be03f4fcdd6d115d94224 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0xb906c3feb63c4de0e6c3d160bf7427b7877c0ef37ca2c1632f0a1a636c9db85e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Africa? | 71,505,834 | 71,505,834 |
a60ce371e4f8eca3dbbdb2c1e182477902143a88 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0xdb553ea306f2eb004b78817508c961e0aa7d3538de894187bd42737421cf220c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from South America? | 71,505,834 | 71,505,834 |
b879cb0d577e4c52759dcb151c6e9bc883cab9f6 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0xff6cf61a2ee2f0be671e47f46fbbdfc04d996c059084196744b67da4bb0266f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Oceania? | 71,505,834 | 71,505,834 |
66ae6df9609cf5de724fea6fe0787c7be31ae250 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x0bb805c339e04a175e4020526d5be7e1a39398928c2a1824591a73db5a7a2a1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May 11? | 71,505,835 | 71,505,835 |
e3b14bcc9e1591998adfce8a9020b06fe1423228 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x60b27f298c367a5ee13208f006a1daf32d354e26db8a286b01d3d80021d351aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on May 9? | 71,505,835 | 71,505,835 |
19d3d058c85f87fbc1e92dbab0ba07f96d38b6f1 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x64023150e8db71a77d862cbbf100823c40f07fe65567d1d442c08d2dc5799b54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on May 10? | 71,505,835 | 71,505,835 |
95e7181c4ef66343ae7ed1874ffb225bfde2cca5 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0xacd4b2f1f739a7e105e2cda591ff7c2713233d51c13c4ebcfbd6641304b94a7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Will the next Pope be named Pius? | 71,505,835 | 71,505,835 |
85f0b006cdd9495a845337182b8b3ef5bf6fdc8b | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0xd3fea25e8f09e6a1c239741d3e8039df146fdb99339307d515f740ce82a0843e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Will the next Pope be named John Paul? | 71,505,835 | 71,505,835 |
ba6101c740ef82cdd0b01ad3833a908a820f1b10 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0xecb6a5e33d64c2d8bfc0d741c937a6004093b0a02d40cbd3ba772ea1f8cadcc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | days-to-elect-the-next-pope | Will the next pop be elected in 3 days? | 71,505,835 | 71,505,835 |
80e0cb3b5ebeec867c952e5195ffe412e7d503bd | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x80147cd287c4780b910f34de32b4d9bfeb1ddcb897d4047426b0c0fd8b776e86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-16 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72–73°F on May 16? | 71,633,658 | 71,633,658 |
c565e0d11df4896e29f0e5fcbad64de486d67f13 | 0x07cb9a762f6127b44f71bb822f4be2136e02b6ca | 0x803cfe5fa40d0e6c8249b4cf454dbfef4b4ed775079afb663fc691943566ad67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be named Benedict? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be named Francis? | Event: what-will-be-the-next-popes-papal-name | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Asia?... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-19 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 19? | 71,753,237 | 71,753,237 |
67347faf9d1f7476232a8f41a2ab7d584a104742 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x68bea4ddcd459f0ae93cca6667011f98ea9c532ff3d8977300ef4315826e0e23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01?
Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | 77,176,479 | 77,176,479 |
a2a8ad248a448961af90f78c2a046ecdde8f1298 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x8a65d6d3a472606b167bfa8544faba42a29616afb086884b883127955d3564ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02?
Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | 77,202,114 | 77,202,114 |
c2434dc8580f6e7183cc578000a5a40d9b8cc219 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x06f05725ec331f38ee0c5e048e342b1a20501ce7ffc2c4c2a82467c771ec1f8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05?
Event: fl... | yes | 1 | fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | 77,597,514 | 77,597,514 |
d83a9eba1082d9b8bb7204171194cd4553dc85ca | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x37ff58bf4cac638a8f33610858a54843638ad9690b70a707d76b80aef9e5c53d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19 | Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | 77,908,517 | 77,908,517 |
002e19cb8532fd63d84c6abde81857794b1dae4d | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xb2ee5288623d02b7e9a15ce7bf53a12ac1a4c38722d162d945b49a3506bb752d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | 78,142,959 | 78,142,959 |
8da8fe39f26482e35e4cdc687987190e04404bd5 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x846b528390cacbe69011c56d68f76fb3c41a4e6dfe2392258efd99ea7d2f2b45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | 78,214,988 | 78,214,988 |
479d7e3dacaa8854f06ee42ee19f92a3dec2cd63 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x29841fb26ac4dfe9d971592a34499280c53018a9bd1fa4913aa1ab0a60e17e0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | cdr-tor-juv-2025-10-29 | Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,188 | 78,345,188 |
4d16a4eb9d0ba95de661066707dd7834a92725f0 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x29c50f94c61ed1048f4cf1ef58d00c42eec823ea5fa6de20ab7c7f98910d1595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,188 | 78,345,188 |
37055c6671e0846c71d53aada5799bbafcbdd750 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x5acded5083567cca2d13f92df0c7e0af7d792b5ad68b764f1c5d72a3bebf3371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw? | 78,345,188 | 78,345,188 |
2340e9d71ab0cb04d888aadf9ff7f43a694e1ea1 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x5f56402167ff2bbd14f3691bfdf584aa085ff2b47ae85b7bfd33582611293054 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,188 | 78,345,188 |
5830786df133309d0f3133c103215edf3abbb8db | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x77e74e9a863f6cfb1edf0423f47d5482ff5456ff2ecc16596ee7299c9f7b3bce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | dfb-dus-scf-2025-10-29 | Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? | 78,345,188 | 78,345,188 |
5563ed9f7247159af0c98292bcec4123624aca1a | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xb787143b4d93b7d7f31aef47892ed7fa9302cbc6814ea84a5540a2b3c4f8105c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | cdr-por-vld-2025-10-29 | Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,188 | 78,345,188 |
96c01bca9eccead12369d59d30b3476f47c36baf | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xcd59de7edcee678c62d61a1b04d1320f71e9dd6da96ae0b38cd9e75879493088 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | cdr-azu-leg-2025-10-29 | Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? | 78,345,188 | 78,345,188 |
a7e2441655cb58780f376d27141c6223a1719bbe | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x694cd67d820e22002bf795e5691685726d0491c1d43b2db65477506f38c06faa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,191 | 78,345,191 |
7a3289d52c883d14c69063091ca37a395df1a13f | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x719cac1d1b03282ec7db3851e703344cdf4925f6ead7417efeb7ef75452718fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | cdr-cie-co-2025-10-29 | Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29? | 78,345,191 | 78,345,191 |
9925a94b290bb31bf77693eb9392d7fe5c8f9f09 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x6cc7aa1d09bda0524d115d740f41105d49233cb63d61485f018f107a982715e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025? | 78,351,411 | 78,351,411 |
4aeb9994a30bd5c9cbf727328cdbd2613473d8fa | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xe8fff19ee3b3236eab94771532713dc1dfb2fcf811b8d737ec0d61ebecfe8084 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025? | 78,351,411 | 78,351,411 |
b4ec7e3d38bfc24aa6512f77b3bcbeb62494d948 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x749f479c4f5498a13b66d6d96ce75e2ce83fe7c2b3cf054efdd56101b7b653f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | chi-ron-hen-2025-10-31 | Will Henan FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,412,638 | 78,412,638 |
0fc4115be1ef2e2c02c0214245832310b446780d | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xcf9767c12be8c1b7620bdbe3fe2f317af269891db1b8bef826e086860b5e8fbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | spl-hil-sha-2025-10-31 | Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-10-31? | 78,419,134 | 78,419,134 |
61a28d5507b27f09ef5c96ff8fa305b94b45a184 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x3b2d325f747302b3032d1046007f0274750458dec9d8cb7d802352bb662ec931 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | rus-csk-nov-2025-10-31 | Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2025-10-31? | 78,431,224 | 78,431,224 |
f36b05f6c2134b7abfcba5e5331d2eb41a9f3ad8 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x23c9101efb37263d6607542edf9c7d1899015571c6ab5654a1bda6e825c1f29d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01 | Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,449,041 | 78,449,041 |
b902beb3fa8a8ea07fac98a40a01d5a1a42c63d8 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xdb7d252b3e426a6a4a09a78c38c4c44e69adf90c99ba4bfb198ae5b10de065ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01 | Will Changchun Yatai FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,449,041 | 78,449,041 |
101f294c632cca1afbdb54d4966c432c7ea903cc | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xe6b051d00684c0b77eeff21c6a1fd6298149d42bbaa576089b6d8cf317d44702 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | chi-cha-bgu-2025-11-01 | Will Changchun Yatai FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? | 78,449,041 | 78,449,041 |
bd7e01557f69e8ddd01edd667b16bdfc2e3f4a14 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xeeb6159ea3b97b20166ccad0b8c82e9aa2f969a7e04599cb1979202610b65443 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | chi-mei-ygb-2025-11-01 | Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,455,425 | 78,455,425 |
13d710d963ba95ec6dfb0ce087a4f9ad8662af2b | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xa497879fa6951974311092a53f5959cd92fb68d076328f052195916ffef732da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-ray-2025-11-01 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,457,589 | 78,457,589 |
3ea6ece67b6a2b0dac4219e0489e0016d1f2c36d | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xea80ffd068f792e6d3408f83b4fdbfb3ebb45132cc3d4f9eb5313a92e38606e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | spl-nsr-fay-2025-11-01 | Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-11-01? | 78,469,246 | 78,469,246 |
a42809ea3bef8d8448d3dee481a6a3f132ca752b | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x15120ee804e671c4a939a93470a83ce70e22d2b9cf3f3abd834cde0ac21b4510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | mex-atl-tol-2025-11-01 | Will Atlas FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | 78,480,135 | 78,480,135 |
f56f7411e471264d4021c8c4b685b94550df432f | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x1cc11db2f1b5b7efab9c18ac9e2e3ab7b993855831747c8593f1aa5db857041a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01 | Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-01? | 78,480,135 | 78,480,135 |
f1fc4849cc34c0d40307bcd7adbc65f9290a2d41 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x50f2dfd84b7ae4796dae5fecef86e848c6b8b82f3ab831ca471ae0d4f4382532 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01 | Will CA Tucumán win on 2025-11-01? | 78,480,135 | 78,480,135 |
ebd303c816d134973529c56cc4bdd1cf570db1ba | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x64330396b9b03405c6596a2f288c046748a69121ec38c4385a9f8d605cc88503 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | no | 1 | arg-ind-cat-2025-11-01 | Will CA Independiente vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw? | 78,480,135 | 78,480,135 |
47b0eb1ee8f99a4b5f599ba685675647531dd43c | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x1a8fbafd2c3b2791b201a4810eeb6c3bcd9b5bbafcaa14b9e53f37e9ab061b88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2... | yes | 1 | chi-hai-wsz-2025-11-02 | Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,491,215 | 78,491,215 |
0953a9150efac58483a0002b863bfdd49bed2298 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x91a34e98c597ebb034fdbf349cc82b22d2b9eb9e80dfc2ffe6c845fa007a0b90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19... | no | 1 | chi-hai-wsz-2025-11-02 | Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,491,215 | 78,491,215 |
8d20ba8cd43bae324dd57d961cdcbbf7d1b81575 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x6ce282ad88f9b92538de28979ac50330669f89a6af67d5d6622dedf9e8bd02c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? | Event: fl1-hac-ren-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-202... | no | 1 | kor-suw-dae-2025-11-02 | Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,492,595 | 78,492,595 |
ffab56a00affa855ad328803e4b2e4b53f5549bc | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x6d94bbd67a20e9f86bccdb948ddc4cd4deae84a86d53e4d9c0f26fa43f57495e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: den-mid-vbk-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | C... | no | 1 | aus-ccm-wel-2025-11-02 | Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,492,595 | 78,492,595 |
2483b3d175e13bff508b29d206b8a91dd7a1b576 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xc5fc8e51d7a57e93066411e4a8f6d147029a618be2d0263356fce701ec20f4ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-10-25? | Event: jap-cer-kaw-2025-10-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-tor-j... | yes | 0.834245 | kor-suw-dae-2025-11-02 | Will Suwon FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,492,595 | 78,492,595 |
de1658ee4cc5b031c1f24141a9994dd75eff2430 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xdcacd858a867ffff6651d774dbc47f62794e7250997bd64abb23d29129be8ced | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sagan Tosu win on 2025-10-26? | Event: ja2-veg-sag-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-tor-juv-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-b... | no | 1 | aus-ccm-wel-2025-11-02 | Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,492,595 | 78,492,595 |
39bdfcfd3aab6bacda46d5340a634e5b8b780a3e | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x2dfc4994952f6c64c04c906fe878935cb93938e832b17ac7d748dadbb8703470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventud Torremolinos CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-tor-juv-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw? ... | no | 1 | nor-ham-san-2025-11-02 | Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,561 | 78,506,561 |
fff8f4611afefcc60e60d0e914472e1955e0e4b3 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x8820013b2875775c8400d0caf21d9b3bc40be8d2c5c4ca95427ea15e8c98df93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-10-29? | Event: nor-bra-bog-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr... | no | 1 | nor-kfu-fkh-2025-11-02 | Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,561 | 78,506,561 |
5180def377cac63c278c7359b3b32f030a0e5443 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xd8a2e75099816d60d3607696bd7186e381fb3b99d49584f673197e73a96be4c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Puente Genil FC vs. FC Cartagena end in a draw? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end... | yes | 1 | nor-ffk-kbk-2025-11-02 | Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,561 | 78,506,561 |
c82eafba064dac679763c9dd6a59c3ac670716d7 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xd8a325d08aa614e0b40a3440bf7b1cbbbb9b64cc173a97f8c0d8765a64c83bed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? | Event: dfb-dus-scf-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29... | yes | 1 | nor-ham-san-2025-11-02 | Will Hamarkameratene win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,561 | 78,506,561 |
b1b320a82263fe4c787d98864f2cf73ead277631 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xf87dba978626820b8201e8cc57649ccb668d84c768065d4d9f8e55fa7ed1f6e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? | Event: dfb-dus-scf-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-por-vld-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in... | no | 1 | nor-ham-san-2025-11-02 | Will Hamarkameratene vs. Sandefjord Fotball end in a draw? | 78,506,561 | 78,506,561 |
d8c507cc0014bff71f7ecd7089874922c128bb95 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x0c310c0dd164e77c068f2a5ea99b48b2cf7570aea31965ce0bad2029efea1457 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-por-vld-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? | Event: cdr-azu-leg-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? | 78,507,494 | 78,507,494 |
516e673955c1b796f809b424bb49649b86c3ea12 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xc00d5ca4a6e429b5ea3d3381481e40f5ea36bb249c042b7c51f2ad03ee2f3c0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Azuaga vs. CD Leganés end in a draw? | Event: cdr-azu-leg-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-cie-co-202... | no | 1 | epl-mac-bou-2025-11-02 | Will Manchester City vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? | 78,507,494 | 78,507,494 |
3a2658bbe7a0c5dea743f2bddc41a157ce2373e1 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x849471e396e6888926d8d216daf876e12b1e484c810863417479c1bdb6bdd09f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Puente Genil FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-pue-car-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-cie-co-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October... | no | 1 | lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-02? | 78,510,505 | 78,510,505 |
af5155fb2da6d04729634e3598599abc4cb853a4 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0x8d552f04b0c90766c881a1bdad32c605bba642e21ae7d936c2cb0c50c78ca3fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Cieza win on 2025-10-29? | Event: cdr-cie-co-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | Will Real Betis vs. Mallorca end in a draw? | 78,521,407 | 78,521,407 |
8ec9f6bce2011fb08e7fbafa7f5c43540aeea112 | 0x08052d80ffe580e132fa94d66619f80aff2b31c0 | 0xfbcc6e58703681819f2c9d2b42eafb9632f059fa9ac2a40af780c2069f2fc611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi... | no | 1 | lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-11-02? | 78,521,407 | 78,521,407 |
19edead67983af31b407db07285903236db6bd54 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x2fde545271ab97b40ad1930ffc745a7a51d9663a54ff91a462e893c33a5c7f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | 71,828,841 | 71,828,841 |
871ad4edfa2fb7f9f0d2cb806860a74b816ead1d | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x651ad09eb00199a564bcd70629fd2e13c1471f11c6384429fa91398d12b32f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et
Predict the use... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | 71,849,158 | 71,849,158 |
2af55dd677f323c14d2a4abbbf3afa198f73034b | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x4aed8c4c4a7b37054d030a43f87884b0bb7add12ff19a52084b1139c60489400 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be 60°F or below on May 23? | 71,869,227 | 71,869,227 |
8cc4611563d46256cda97cf5c005780aa26dea42 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x7cb36f0bf12f27eeac427f155fffa2dbee97c00f11de45eba4eb15d0b19205b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or below on May 23? | 71,899,826 | 71,899,884 |
7e7fad678e223ca18fbe22bdbd129039edcaffe6 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0xd892aa2b057892d5a77ae25811a71ed4fc3d05403d7dbdc82f9df2e1e6434b95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-23-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 23 at 5 PM ET? | 71,899,831 | 71,899,831 |
b9ef5d716c78e4024cd980604a38c4e4b2b75457 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x0a5b764f8a74a544c4f69be7dad23c36a7fe873583ed87a56bb4779bcbc465bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 57–58°F on May 23? | 71,899,838 | 71,899,838 |
8165641ea76a54f77d2659f846ce15561218e2ff | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x4a732ed24abaea466d424e4b3b08f74f8fb5c213d9c07ad8d27df39733e70ca3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59–60°F on May 23? | 71,899,842 | 71,899,842 |
01956415f1e4f9ff8d2b82623919867cc2506b41 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x5349058139566c74c6e299d7736db5ea3b2bd6b02914095836f08926fc4ac043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-may-24-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on May 24 at 5 PM ET? | 71,939,378 | 71,939,378 |
fc453641b14b667efb6c8cbd9f58c826d769b7d5 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x5a1546c606c72d28a776bad4c18243224f73975e52b9aab9dda07d47ab70e962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60–61°F on May 24? | 71,939,382 | 71,939,419 |
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