sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9910b924829945b916680aaa22b1048424d56b26 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xb5670f041ddb14f0924f18deb73e953c74227bab42733278934c8000f2f8d061 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | up | 0.000092 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-10-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10 PM ET | 72,621,812 | 72,621,812 |
737a16923576b72177ef5bf38556ec2355054987 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe64bdce6aea1037da8768419b804af75d94768da91540e9bbf8b55d0f1cdcd89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | up | 0.000177 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-11-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11 PM ET | 72,623,796 | 72,623,796 |
e4f333be0d267d3a21aeb12312b6831386abef51 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xa68fd5b3d238ffcca9d69f96d14c3dc672afff2466b8fc1957f60da55dbec0e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | up | 0.000111 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12 AM ET | 72,623,803 | 72,623,803 |
2e9dcd367476795f44332c238a981607d4a4f7b8 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x98f4a3825f3435038559bef467201046e8995329249e50ea4a90e718a2b83a0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-1am-et-358 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1 AM ET | 72,623,989 | 72,623,989 |
006ae825671d68a2bdc7779b061f6f9e89c3a445 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xb68c6fb9911b220e5f36de602b82cf01955b51e199c2b89f061034b295e0d1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0.000081 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-2am-et-833 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2 AM ET | 72,626,363 | 72,626,363 |
9ae54b7bd7fda02f9c62aef89c8ab9d99a1a17fa | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xa7dcaeb3d48888e99edb09513750bdeed713ab1a7d5209204f4fe70e43dd8899 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3 AM ET | 72,627,237 | 72,627,237 |
d4c53c142a15683589ca3f6ed7155e9e39d31b52 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xfd979c621ce12b91f2723ddcdee6b19f2956038fd188d702386366a24dc90c7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4 AM ET | 72,629,711 | 72,629,711 |
8a99087fdb65a88f643c58a75f70fa5fe5979edc | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x03678cfa26cc5dd03f60541e3c12a997638d07c21d1342d517a493fde1be3bcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | up | 0.000007 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5 AM ET | 72,630,578 | 72,630,578 |
f7780bb53a86a821ba237845283c3365662b8d25 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe50f04388ed2d986701e4d21371f9a87a50eddcbc1c5933040c02e08bee3b426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0.000044 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6 AM ET | 72,632,507 | 72,632,507 |
36795f253d0fdbe7c65f46d59c9d43eeb5c7dc25 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x7898d6e87f41fa0d46ed7c68b6fc81ca8e6c2dd4388efc1c0be66a499ce0daa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0.000028 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7 AM ET | 72,633,903 | 72,633,903 |
84b689cc20b9807de791058c6f4fa0d3df304b4b | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xd53e22a2141a9808a4fd69c925452331a8d0ede2e09414b9f2e7963267db2f78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET | 72,636,930 | 72,636,930 |
ea4d1ae5609b0dcad3ae7a8f843d45c9ccd6a421 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x33d0849b13eccfadc41fe5924c6566bba8db511bc30b7885e200c7494f4089bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0.000052 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET | 72,637,284 | 72,637,284 |
cb41018f6e012748a41f9e311747ee7a731f98ce | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xb1c341eca1c2d9fc18bfb93403a40ef81c1795d6c115bc34d7b4c0397b60276a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET | 72,640,977 | 72,640,977 |
6949b81bd12d6f119e1cfe0144a955951fd06217 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x0d0949c0c69b886bffad25b4a6010e7f9c018ef27172c64412d8bf990a5ec8c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? | Event: which-party-wins-second-most-seats-in-uk-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | down | 0.000034 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11 AM ET | 72,640,998 | 72,640,998 |
cc9b54cd6131842800346732b86e2f56185c4e1f | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x53508bb2662aadfae90a6642b59f2eebb04817f153530a6fea9482d58389d919 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? | Event: uk-election-next-prime-minister | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jude Bellingham be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will one member of The Squad lose their pr... | down | 0.000093 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12 PM ET | 72,642,495 | 72,642,495 |
6126e73fba25fd7f1f4c96fb88e5f9f6ec278da0 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x24f228057e314533c700bc3a478233c4e1a255efa95f4ec7402faa67363b9d59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jude Bellingham be Euro 2024 top scorer? | Event: euro-2024-top-scorer | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will one member of The Squad lose their primary? | Event: how-many-members-of-the-squad-will-lose-their-primaries | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Game 10 of... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9 PM ET | 72,658,626 | 72,658,626 |
a8c056b994b4ad938167b5c4309e41fd5884d397 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xf71c13e990d55d801e4de5d99b6a5b83ffe75eeb303d9c6359eb9a7b8a89a68f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will one member of The Squad lose their primary? | Event: how-many-members-of-the-squad-will-lose-their-primaries | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | down | 0.000036 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8 PM ET | 72,658,793 | 72,658,793 |
ce134a1adb041ca4a64dbf41fbe307dc1eb3cfba | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xa68086361619b24cae9ac15f8745a288bd3496a3d02c3b4e648401af8c5b3e93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | down | 0.000081 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7 PM ET | 72,658,799 | 72,658,799 |
1dfc1357ac3231c4d3bc8986b8e0dfae2f0453b6 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x9cad401dbd45da2e861893cdcfb8f37a8fb762d1af1246ff27b4da2236c26879 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | down | 0.000007 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10 PM ET | 72,659,178 | 72,659,178 |
6b7860b4a5910df59949a31b20059d8df7537d47 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xb69e0cdfe67b340af6f6020b4bbba530fdfc8a62ef165e5aa91cbf3df208e01e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Game 14 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | down | 0.000017 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-12-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12 AM ET | 72,662,681 | 72,662,681 |
4432941bc9025071675b234e36f58e4244cb78b2 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe09026ab1c5bcfcca2faee98f7eb8021da6e42fbc5613bf853b46a2d0e9b4c97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Game 14 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | up | 0.000039 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 AM ET | 72,664,242 | 72,664,242 |
28d48611dbc3f75bdb75d5fc0b1b9c5761fb642c | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x4342385abdd5020623638ca172ce19332ac32fb90a058456d77e26c482f46af5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-2-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2 AM ET | 72,665,896 | 72,665,896 |
c9f00ee0d193c8155a862f3cb7f520133f78bc50 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xda05242fb0951159a92288730e3f4e9534a3e0bbd481321800a3baafcad521de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-11-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-3-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3 AM ET | 72,667,799 | 72,667,799 |
77dbb857873558bae13bb82c1f5eae46c67046e5 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xeb6faec68e8d2e12a1ba70e4da9e77e4bf4f75654670531344818dd891f6f1c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-11-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-9-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12 PM... | up | 0.000031 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-6-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6 AM ET | 72,675,174 | 72,675,174 |
8e2e83ba172d479135e78b1b5af0ac040f66bcea | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x03ca6b3693cb302cc7446ed22673f36583c1da97bc78b855a774e66b196a4d8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-9-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-12-pm-et-393 | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.025877581760218e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-7-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7 AM ET | 72,675,184 | 72,675,184 |
8ea00ada249dbe241754bab60a246b74380af1e8 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x501964cdd1397ec06f5bf44d40064e3fb52307a2908dcdf185b836c4791a05d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-12-pm-et-393 | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.025877581760218e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-1-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | up | 0.000062 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-5-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5 AM ET | 72,675,187 | 72,675,187 |
bcbc2aee3940a4015a8b1d2079820ad3a5c1cb2e | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x5dcb05ae69a9f7bbd05b89757d7da821050774217e08305348b69693966c2a7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-1-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-9-pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.256740114924322e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0.000014 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-8-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8 AM ET | 72,675,980 | 72,675,980 |
24c8bd4f817ea24de250513350967a655e7b4e54 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xbf06a51a342ea1d4b491152c4b05d2357e934c640d7c5673ad2e11fc6218ef32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-9-pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.256740114924322e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-8-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.078956004570992e-05
3. Question: Bitc... | down | 0.000019 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-9-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9 AM ET | 72,677,758 | 72,677,758 |
68682bc8aabe24827954dcf7fa9e4edc974f77c6 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xd7835fbc5a7a13698382beca1b4d09bda813b6025c269bd3c941e6057599c0c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-8-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.078956004570992e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-7-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.180348449516024e-05
3. Question: Bitco... | up | 0.000008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-10-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10 AM ET | 72,679,423 | 72,679,423 |
54c8357720432d6135033f1dae9af6af8ae3615b | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x5a1ff8522dac9a8b4509e4393d2126320c624f298e639774ed7c7f26cf85f063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-7-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.180348449516024e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-10-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.225501832998682e-05
3. Question: Bit... | up | 0.000061 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-11-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11 AM ET | 72,681,588 | 72,681,588 |
6d0979a35689d26e58887afe20aec22d566195d6 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xcc6733e6992003121c4d89773a6c9013abb6cec5e1e05a034faf5a52f70fab79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-10-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.225501832998682e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-11-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00017653615951483516
3. Question: ... | down | 0.000005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-12-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12 PM ET | 72,682,796 | 72,682,796 |
2d188e14e4cdc38e3635cc49e4ee2aa3118468b5 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xfb336690b0546628b4033903ccfc15cfb56164f893a388e74ffd5fcf7fb00a59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-10-11-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00017653615951483516
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011082228021687083
3. Question: ... | down | 0.000002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 PM ET | 72,684,342 | 72,684,516 |
5d46d4f44fea37b42ca3d2e73731ccf92f572beb | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x8cec82c5775cd5822831ad6457153eb540750b71a1bffdde436ce65739266613 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011082228021687083
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-1am-et-358 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-8-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8 PM ET | 72,701,061 | 72,701,061 |
3572cc2ea80141e43f97e1112bd58bd91bc87ef3 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x5a66edbd27e7c73aba947c8d29e2e9365ed8eb6abeced1cc38bc2eaa5bda5212 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-1am-et-358 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-2am-et-833 | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.139662487129828e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | up | 0.000041 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-9-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9 PM ET | 72,701,066 | 72,701,066 |
03fabf47c37dc9298295646fbd669811065a1a02 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x2379847f9622b062969173fad7a8ec5fba74a50ef36f9dd9284f9293c48ec1b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-2am-et-833 | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.139662487129828e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-10-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10 PM ET | 72,701,070 | 72,701,070 |
17292401ace6f442e9a44420f8fcdbd5bb33a0c4 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x2df5a55f539c767ef4b5f2bb081a43700de9c9135e4c674f4d8c061d1f521c46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5 AM ET |... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-11-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11 PM ET | 72,701,353 | 72,701,353 |
5541376f0a9d76c200dc39f4b08522a8891f7da5 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x9eba5c7db14890d43f15dabed8fd793857c201bdcdfb897a5be8dc8cdd8d99d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.095322837028557e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Ju... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-4-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4 AM ET | 72,709,811 | 72,709,811 |
7d901d71d69079e50510860d070ed27f5fc9147f | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xc72d5939a933eb7c3f09102ac83202f6551200d95b0d88ffc29868d63c962fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.095322837028557e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.4126947101540854e-05
3. Question: Bitc... | down | 0.000031 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-5-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5 AM ET | 72,711,542 | 72,711,542 |
b77fcb5166cdb7e5cd394f4b9efa0e7957b4e675 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe4c4d504051805f5d6da2415d849d5d3dd24925169603d472642ad51e1813b77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 4.4126947101540854e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.843586487683023e-05
3. Question: Bi... | down | 0.000012 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-2-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2 AM ET | 72,711,546 | 72,711,546 |
425569bd220e8ef4e5ec91bcf6f9ac8dfd11cac8 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x5da2d722e661feb0c249dde9d39a8608cdb95d1ab917fedb5f71dd5185b85ab1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.843586487683023e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - J... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-6-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6 AM ET | 72,713,194 | 72,713,194 |
10ef176dfe7cd26f94c4daf8105de35db95ff1e4 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe988e086a8ae1e6638017cd707e4a3b3605489eac0148be57606944f52ee81ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.19777015410376e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Jun... | up | 0.000033 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-7-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7 AM ET | 72,717,206 | 72,717,206 |
4492c0f24306309aec40317451d94513d23f9a4f | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x82fdc8afee8b0a578a66c16bfd53193ab2818201cf3983c90135c67333406226 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.19777015410376e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - J... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-9-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9 AM ET | 72,718,287 | 72,718,287 |
d8d2779d57c703a6d75de5234f43c70906d26fe3 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x70218f59b1a79b9b5ea15cdc06c5bddef712ad943e632c0882fc7b544ffce5fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.432117790282563e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down... | up | 0.000018 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-12-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12 PM ET | 72,723,466 | 72,723,466 |
dd7d82579ca8a05b17fa3c241d60815d19fe5347 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xb3f8c734e788ba149d8ca66e362bc5004ea5c1f16c8a06c466d256090f28df29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.432117790282563e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.3168679594191e-05
3. Question: B... | up | 0.00002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-1-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1 PM ET | 72,725,058 | 72,725,058 |
7d66b6bdb1942d3eac1ad663c6bfcbe6f19d87b4 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x7892eaf90f346ffaf50d308e822f537f5294f342083f198acf843cbe8961e7d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.3168679594191e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.000012 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-2-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2 PM ET | 72,726,689 | 72,726,689 |
e66e1d02932e99d82a001aa23bfed74c2fc97566 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x0a33682202f832286a6afe1d94b64a894bc046d620fe872f7da2e00ab93966a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.6291317011894364e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | up | 0.000002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-8-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8 PM ET | 72,739,925 | 72,739,925 |
c57803248c413120f3ef8fcbf6592c534fdfabed | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xdb9388e035c520decb6b348f15a5baffb0551d83adbece7684b48a5646467b79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.6291317011894364e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.140162568532266e-05
3. Question: Bi... | up | 0.000055 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-7-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7 PM ET | 72,739,929 | 72,739,929 |
f68362c0ffc8e2656d8f9104e3ed10b1a8d13ae1 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xed204999e5f618f245544926040b97a5bd074348cf04e5e83a1953f9d4f0823e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.140162568532266e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.860100980686436e-06
3. Question: B... | up | 0.000002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-10-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10 PM ET | 72,740,899 | 72,741,730 |
0f95e954d09899c653bd686b8e69463de1c6ecdf | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xaf75881f456f1d2e2facb260e579fff3c2b32e5709bd8f5629127d039964f277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-11-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.860100980686436e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-12-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.659771137688652e-05
3. Question... | down | 0.000006 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-13-11-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11 PM ET | 72,742,648 | 72,742,648 |
fe5cebf38ab04af57ab8ac1917ff5274f4bbbbe3 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x15ab3c896e2747f08849f257d976188f278df352626b4da94293be2d926073f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-12-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.659771137688652e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.9226538660978974e-05
3. Question: ... | up | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-1-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1 AM ET | 72,745,293 | 72,745,293 |
274ab9f7d68b59e34047e7497e030745e9fe4712 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x9cf84d276a4cc7e8adf7cf27e796f8953c10a1cff36dd931855753a8744b762c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.9226538660978974e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-2-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0.000007 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-5-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5 AM ET | 72,755,428 | 72,755,428 |
329b992f0283224321c41300c83964dce3dbf5f5 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x408a5a00923ec8b6888f8915f37b7b9f881128c999abdea8e779a4b2e22bbdfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-2-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-3-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6 AM ET... | up | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-7-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7 AM ET | 72,755,451 | 72,755,451 |
dbb8e86ba4bd1f6dce3888a79306b561d2f25a8d | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xd21ede41cf345bdc9ea0d0bff7ef02b45f2f65a67c3bffe9b4ad8c70ffec8b30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-3-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-6-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.137666155111244e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.00002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-6-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6 AM ET | 72,755,461 | 72,755,461 |
3edfed77212eb0576028551d0ce91f796a9139d7 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x5c97bcdb53809544be308e01fa273e0239de26c12368733121dc38df8c798c19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-6-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.137666155111244e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-7-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-9-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9 AM ET | 72,758,638 | 72,758,676 |
922eb44aabfe536de0664291df447cc506a06672 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe6664f291d950b29b136f8aff44452b0a34ffd672e67662e8ec8a661ce66bbfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-7-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-5-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.178381700421453e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0.000005 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-10-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10 AM ET | 72,761,236 | 72,761,995 |
c88d9296f1d6dfaa64bd2d1913ca1cdae409683c | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xf7acc3f38db88dd75894fc61b8ca210140b28dfdf601001ed41ef1c96aee7fa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-5-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.178381700421453e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-8-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.3740188790193977e-05
3. Question: Bi... | up | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-11-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11 AM ET | 72,762,003 | 72,763,642 |
672d2fbf47fdf57aa98ab870387f6fc155a68582 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xd5e05bcb05cedbb6909e65943e284dc3fbd69bed610d98033c3cf85a6fab9d65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-8-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.3740188790193977e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-9-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.864721239851502e-05
3. Question: ... | down | 0.000008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-12-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12 PM ET | 72,763,709 | 72,765,140 |
aa57abc8dfaff352365524cc7d49301bb6da9cdd | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x9f652ad6f2e3e06134805aa01e4f88352d432348214bc1fd18a369c8592851b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-9-am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.864721239851502e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-10-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.6000577604389794e-06
3. Question: ... | down | 0.000042 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-2-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2 PM ET | 72,767,824 | 72,767,824 |
5af1f3d26db8d3ac72eefcf69ad7db6b48fad2c0 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x5af133a2edb5218d0b0c17a15b79ad8dbd0d4ab88539f8ee3e015c43c1f3a917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-10-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.6000577604389794e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-11-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.0802627201535295e-05
3. Question:... | down | 0.000013 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-1-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1 PM ET | 72,767,832 | 72,767,832 |
5cbfc6b453b94f6544cf17f30be807a327ce0114 | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xc594e0ab7890de0435522447007180fed1135fa66b43a636d544848420a12667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11 AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-11-am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.0802627201535295e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-12-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.296028047764541e-06
3. Question... | up | 0.000013 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-8-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8 PM ET | 72,781,636 | 72,781,636 |
9c3b7dc94d8e137e08f2897e9471826dbf83898f | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xe77c833e481f582e851fbeef307c4d9269948ad804877c69742b54ad19a0913b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-12-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.296028047764541e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.962272680974062e-06
3. Question:... | down | 0.000088 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-9-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9 PM ET | 72,781,642 | 72,781,642 |
9a6209db202d7f2aaa8840ed57694f1c95d0df3b | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x413afa9195cd9cdfa7077de3c26be14248a61eb512300db617fd1c2437005d07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-1-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.962272680974062e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-8-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0.000022 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-10-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10 PM ET | 72,781,647 | 72,781,647 |
e6f4dd65a591b46bfe0c2e82750b709691af10aa | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0xdc784484837dc679f405cfbc79e2b0a81daf7c1a42233cf050618eeedf88bc1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-8-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-9-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.1191696685986495e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0.000024 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-14-11-pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11 PM ET | 72,782,444 | 72,782,444 |
01c685c3eae6a3328d70d2441e80fa083fd413ab | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x4feae995be268193a02f590f5186102f31d5d3b80ea77ece3999f9f75ec27f28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-9-pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.1191696685986495e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-10-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down... | up | 0.000023 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-15-12-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12 AM ET | 72,785,768 | 72,785,768 |
817c1508d2e7714c242980cb5cee45afa0906abb | 0x08e69f7579903c7b14cedf7df077a6b7ccac94b4 | 0x247a13386671d85dfbff770236efd2e77375b88bc176aa4376a7b4292a8a764f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-10-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11 PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-12-11-pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4 A... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-15-1-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1 AM ET | 72,785,779 | 72,785,779 |
92047c17e8d6a09cc0cb4d40bc1ca8e7397b0dec | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x1d3a7507842b9f8f599f5a7ba75f5295bc36ba8adeb37fea0db5ebc02cab72aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,398 | 73,852,398 |
5c64c8ddb65f26f250d521a1eb9239e2a0c66af6 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x638b7bdba727b1c173787d7cb4475c0523bd354bbca8fc9b0907c21816b47fd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time?
Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time
Predict the user's choice ... | no | 1 | fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | 73,852,402 | 73,852,402 |
be5a5f24dd1bd85b0925c9422858526195eca80d | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x323662daf184cc9fb30d7ad4f854c0273d0f916edd5df62234e67daadaedb56e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | no | 1 | bitcoin-all-time-high-before-august | Bitcoin all time high before August? | 73,852,404 | 73,852,404 |
6ea6663deb335cb3125c660531579da902f8fa62 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x4032138ecca7c3005e219e466c19e2e739782650419759c2e27cd8c68c5c6d21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m? | 73,852,406 | 73,852,406 |
dfe96bacbb4c543af6480868969a1b5efdb89c7d | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x312b9549372ddfed3cd9f79db1e34b5613e07a90d7b161f2b7c6e36ade87b8c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on July 6 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,420 | 73,852,420 |
b461e54fbf9824af62001eb027c70a28df02518d | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x2fca8e8e6225a5e45ae3231c6e6e4e5896aa4b2f1dd58fb94caa5e1a2e6a30b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,852,424 | 73,852,424 |
6706258c2e41747704d069244fde9cce1a3db635 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x14960d60c790fbf1746f06416e7d66d0e552e3530d3788c9c46603ee98d7b858 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-june-441 | Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June? | 73,852,428 | 73,852,428 |
1e768dee7a6d42d4981d400366b5c92daaa0b156 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x0ac964dba3fbfe42ed5402be46f88ce633145e1ca57e6ea045016dc50ee628b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 6 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,430 | 73,852,430 |
88abd34badd5a79af3d166ce4b5a8f2f44a1ae97 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xb5ce8214892816e5903015509a30c14ee0dd5ec1d347a0a6f53a3cc6d26646e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-9 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 9? | 73,852,432 | 73,852,432 |
c4f42448cfbd75341e923fd084238d9823c7039c | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x2dd205b3e7c111440f9cd93f53dd426664b14ab3c4e9cd1e9dc9ed0fed971a8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,852,436 | 73,852,436 |
a9b8a02a5932ab74c6f0aeaac567bbc950fdc034 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xdf4949f0f84ab354aa90b9176e30cce7ca155c8cf2f993fed913d686761b3be2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4? | 73,852,447 | 73,852,447 |
784057ad053123f243b1271f88cba0de0e59c1e2 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x398e26afdd4f9197bc203c1dd350df493daab84b54d6108103962c2363c9d149 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-method-of-win | Will Mexico beat USA in Regulation Time? | 73,852,449 | 73,852,449 |
9a6431d63e62a341e98c2df42018ba3e1584700a | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x32002036d6fa81dcf715d5775dfe7ce1537c46b6c555de94c884c92c3c78beef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-2nd-place | Will Oscar Piastri finish in 2nd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,852,457 | 73,852,457 |
d777bbb3e9a08fa70374b1a75e0146223c247dc5 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x95f02eafe721c3c61f20f0e658886379999f95e920ae8b05804802515ef2bdd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Will India win the match? | 73,852,461 | 73,852,461 |
48d6147544c735cbff70b975ca65dc69f3b4277f | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x8214929dfc630d5a900d0fb3f0b1213bcdc94f60abd1968da357859de50a0686 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | 73,852,463 | 73,852,463 |
87e9aca82f52669af9e5e08b59bdd7510aea2af5 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x3db95df632e37092db99748c3bef0bb88835aa964e476f6db322ec6d4d1482b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 4? | 73,852,464 | 73,852,464 |
0d74f02627096081a326baddaf1fcdfc67ee6dbd | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x08501f1aca276c587a9f42897fa06b39815c761c4e94ee3eb8c41be1103b89f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Will the Reconciliation bill receive 217–218 votes? | 73,852,468 | 73,852,468 |
02ee5cbb5e15e88b7c0d3c16eec3ae9bcb66bf79 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x7144850a23cd7582df6bb1a68d32b7978c6838b73bc026d06a387e248c4b9e6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on July 2? | 73,852,470 | 73,852,470 |
f19dcc83cf3b904af5239318933ba5128036ce27 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x2cd6620ae4e87b4e97bb6c92257042d078e444a9c5545387e5cb36788cf31c60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | down | 1 | trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-336 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | 73,852,479 | 73,852,479 |
264570456aaafa840f626c45e126696f44c9179b | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xa99c0c76d0f94643cfdd7ed79fdf95c4c53119d82990e88d1022be810d9628f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on July 8 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,484 | 73,852,484 |
468e5cef5695cd84d0c54fb1138f24a7c5682102 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xd46b6b8aa22b6d2068e3d98877e13dcb95f52bc6298156b3c6d76644f003cefd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? | 73,852,486 | 73,852,486 |
d46c87e63d357bb539069ed0175ab3be8bad9cfb | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x64ba916ef4eebfe5188f1eb29fe29991f6eb3aeae66916b6e18438be8b489159 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 9? | 73,852,488 | 73,852,488 |
0cecd0f9fd6b7d2bfc7b4c2b8b048982e064cd39 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x146654cd673f51f8a7a35dd0d32df2a730e5879dbf1632c5b2ce13bbbd4bcc44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 8? | 73,852,490 | 73,852,490 |
d004cd80de0fe4c756ed8eb06e1e76cc8cf18c92 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x3281ee2d3787a39fee6ac925bf71736483f7d3f4f0eefe342d3e87c138bb6c4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-184 | 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? | 73,852,492 | 73,852,492 |
1087b596ed46c47dd7ebd1e846943d0b573113ce | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x657a8d8285e271827872edc7405ab6f1a79fa1d7a2df6f6f19ef2bf30a6bbc6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89? | 73,852,494 | 73,852,494 |
00794690bbea4574392892c4cbcbb258e498b8c3 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x08cf5c8c74a809ff52fb2897b8560b29ad11781bf3114b9ad8e1df7064194c42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,496 | 73,852,496 |
59292832fa490f4b8f082614cbede075c8a154cd | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x489175dfe2cdbdb1b6e92925ba7c78d447746de55742c34211eb8fde5a538cd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-5-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 5 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,498 | 73,852,498 |
be0a947eed2c0f5a810abad739b0e17d8e0e91fc | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x77a8d93b968e801adc08e20eb51e24e6e1bce86b6b04e0ce5fe371813b019ab7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-4 | Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on July 4? | 73,852,502 | 73,852,502 |
2aed1a26fafd908c46d064c155e4ebee8f9dc01d | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x7ffc4f1a34c2250cd55754a0d4a9f107234b8a3db69997f1874eb7ae690f6a7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-inter-miami | Will Inter Miami beat New England Revolution? | 73,852,504 | 73,852,504 |
2f477c70f6dcb6632a291a5e99a7c0cdd5cbc137 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x3ce9d69c83cbdd831e6e300553cf6c1168171d271326c5b314779731abd69f10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on July 4? | 73,852,506 | 73,852,506 |
735ca4ce5c644e54e02b05315a81f7f751a7f519 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x64e4e2be8b0cbeab53f96bd383985be00b368ba938ab75c5a0b17fdb1a3035cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | will-grok-resume-replying-by-wednesday | Will @Grok resume replying by Wednesday? | 73,852,508 | 73,852,508 |
82477393076a53e4cce1b618a5b12d509180c0fa | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x8b687ef3cd727786eeb3567a5ea7ed3cf797f99b5f0c7d324af3bd8404ddaee6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense beat Al Hilal in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-al-hilal-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin all time high before August? | Event: bitcoin-all-time-high-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Jurassic World" Ope... | no | 1 | real-madrid-vs-dortmund-regulation-time | Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund in regulation time? | 73,852,510 | 73,852,510 |
dab2f06a551d1f8538d0e5ed29dcefc94342ece9 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xff8896627f0e34ab3937994ead975538d1476952c588bfa1fc2280bf99bb3b80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin all time high before August? | Event: bitcoin-all-time-high-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 8 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,517 | 73,852,517 |
80d3cae313166f54ba79d5ad3f5ec9366cf6c3c5 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xb1590ad4c1be4fc31864a08dcc4e445e3759188198b3309ffa9c8a9ae324d338 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on July 6 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-6-5pm-et | ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,521 | 73,852,521 |
9474b59b5ad4e0806c0d574cd11b6382d3e1f688 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xc4b6bc6f5280a5249e48d33bd7e47d8eeca47e83383a625591c9ff68363837bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on July 6 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-6-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | no | 1 | chess-superunited-rapid-blitz-croatia-winner | Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament? | 73,852,523 | 73,852,523 |
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