sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a589243ad63aecde31f4745e672240f5f82e2cb9 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x0ba4633dc493329834a4d46a574d12ed3cf36f38d44a938ea7865214fd87c9db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-24 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58–59°F on May 24? | 71,939,386 | 71,939,386 |
817a8ad09ead57702992d77794acd793a90dd3bb | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0xa42134040623e57e502f0fb6da4e12a92348d73294bc59300d2fbf5985220f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-25-799 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 25? | 71,952,262 | 71,952,262 |
6739a4a294ad1ba80d961b8f46b3cdfed48563de | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x1dc58284e7743dc0119455539c9a97281b247b34d464a2c76a8225e92ce1b0fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-25-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? | 71,978,160 | 71,978,160 |
2e005ff7145e2315cacf24255bb3d6395942a4a4 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x8de8fab633612c435345e04026272e30a75199cda81beb9211a3b538dab1fff6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 25? | 71,978,168 | 71,978,168 |
fc0606f4e3904e92de8832b56be4b0dcd0bc67d1 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0xd7559cf8ffde21e61f76170c20ef53534f65a84a399208edd3eaccd65f511d28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-may-25-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on May 25 at 5 PM ET? | 71,978,176 | 71,978,176 |
6a4f46cf776831f72c74a5bb349f79c93b757c44 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0x90458fdb5c8307e964f521f4c21365b08fc1a077ca4ec1ebd746ae8e99dd4bac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-25-719 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or higher on May 25? | 71,982,295 | 71,982,295 |
07f2dce1c1684d88843c97f850a2a407a107ab20 | 0x083dac53eedd95b1347de653696b06f814c0ca55 | 0xd75fa2b808c253875c949bed24f6e3e6b9b642bcc849a967e9a6ec1733c7a851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on May 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on May 22 at 5 PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-may-22-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-27 | Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on May 27? | 72,021,498 | 72,021,498 |
bff1309a15cab353dd757e1d05392f024deebcd3 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xdcc14f14b46062ba6598902170838e0f99a7321f804bac63595451469980c290 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02?
Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | 78,508,915 | 78,508,915 |
0d1de6e018aa637f8aa7901f86d6392d8c5d0416 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x617458741c0a2f568b12b3d72a98d96827ed4330773bac45fc891aa9886c597d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02?
Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | 78,510,284 | 78,510,284 |
96b11f6f13b4461fe2c650e6336a76e8071247d0 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xbbeb658f222a6f0518dbdf4e6ba7ddf4c792d480e0d6732f579c2d2b7defd57c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02?
Event: lal-bet-mal-202... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | 78,537,776 | 78,537,776 |
b8d91ca2b10020fd7ffc68cbddcfbab11a091f53 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x4714297d095ab987f1ad968cbd1a2b42d9d20433cac64bed224c16626045ae02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | col-ray-lep-2025-11-06 | Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? | 78,694,978 | 78,694,978 |
1c5e7ffb2f214cfecfe43e57dab4177c016a0009 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x12cea61bfcfce2e9fb4057d583025dadf4f282ab76933ee6b2f09a380f1e97b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Elche CF vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? | 78,730,250 | 78,730,250 |
a2878fc96a710de40fdaf73e88819d3c01c14875 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x86c515e6d1bb9e852347c8dc9350365ecf4da047667a794cc00173dd7d9473e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | no | 1 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | 78,730,250 | 78,730,250 |
3ca74ae0109204f72b26129e3725d26f868c9d3c | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xe8ea657cb5b515880ecc39509b250db8374cf22dc08b65b516c6d48a77dc128d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | no | 1 | fl1-pfc-ren-2025-11-07 | Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,730,250 | 78,730,250 |
9be156b1dcbb05b723ba8ddcf67ff7a0d69dbc72 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xea038ac9034aa7733e8a5b6b595135c3ff29dedcc6b3102f552799995dbbd804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-07? | 78,730,250 | 78,730,250 |
23d03fc6d36133aa18d2d1f0064b849dd6e806f6 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x8581d02dbdcd59fac4439c0df7d9174ed27d37e993647a423da36872f4d0a3c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | 78,747,479 | 78,747,479 |
a46cfd761f76dd24478238d9b491b89fe0d714b8 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x0045b49312f21d8e21509e96df5423a784d8ead8d14f9e67e46af9905190582f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | no | 1 | lal-gir-ala-2025-11-08 | Will Alaves win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,134 | 78,764,134 |
f40d28568743d7b6a76477a6ce49826312701f01 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x4164cca7c5da1cfc6d9684651f308188ddbbbd8fe1e54402f20c9df732386cd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | no | 1 | epl-tot-mun-2025-11-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? | 78,764,134 | 78,764,134 |
abb7802182aa69375056a018b5ceb5f7668529bb | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x08a820efdd951fd333cbb77e50b4450117c5eaca22f3ed055927c235b0955778 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | no | 1 | lal-esp-vil-2025-11-08 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-08? | 78,774,250 | 78,774,250 |
43ee74f920a1ab3eaecaae26554e7d7ee1088e21 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xafbef5a84d713a2aa81f87699a548be786cc2616c0073158ef99045cd1e66839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ovi-2025-11-09 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? | 78,806,999 | 78,806,999 |
1077d7193d003ed9c7080ee095ff8a13e6286096 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xaa79bd3e2e9cbec5171ec85ebac8b93f35d0b43847df9e4efcdf1bf91aff66f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on November 14? | 79,025,921 | 79,025,921 |
6a324c24fc7647babfb05003961ba98fcb538650 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x2cbabf694ea8a6ae1d6577783efdae3c7e1ddf648621abd4bf2cdb21350ce5ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Croatia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,045,460 | 79,045,460 |
de816829791647e7dbaa07124ec2e0b27efd54d8 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x5de19b0b1b06973722a18e4553fc66946b32413d4baff3a3cc0cf13c7a970846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | no | 1 | uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,045,460 | 79,045,460 |
cc1738df6c69ec60b303dfd1317e0f57d856d3ef | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x6d8ae6d4f09d2f751155d3c704d9f18d9976f5dec5170ce7528eaa24698ddeed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | lal-val-lev-2025-11-21 | Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? | 79,348,598 | 79,348,598 |
59a7b3a36e7bb33c9b8c4d912f3609e33d1a0f1b | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x25ea014b83ff8a8de10f60a1d263a242ba5c59818a3d84167a91beec0bac0a9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | ucl-slp1-ath1-2025-11-25 | Will SK Slavia Praha vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? | 79,534,108 | 79,534,108 |
1037e4b12416a869d9736394a734c7811d509eca | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xc8380243406c2e64f74f1f8fbe3575d904c927ebc4720cc4a6222da396c1f0b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | ucl-cfc-fcb1-2025-11-25 | Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,534,108 | 79,534,108 |
4965fe1b602900ffdd91a1e0c0b8ed1242ae9975 | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0x0b13c27cced708928ca49f045781f1b0abfcc7aef6253371e07f007878dda0f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-26? | 79,576,772 | 79,576,772 |
2fd830f3e77243f52115191c60d3e0162f52d62a | 0x084d839feac613f0e36db3e3c374768ee5a27e47 | 0xc71ec6617d1781dc31c9882952d8a5661cb615cd57115631eaac5bffa061fabb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-lev-cel-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bar-elc-2025-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? | Event: lal-bet-mal-2025-11-02 | C... | yes | 1 | ucl-oly1-rma1-2025-11-26 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? | 79,576,772 | 79,576,772 |
6ca7d833ab90853b849d723b215a6f2b8be4777c | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x55094f77e9dbc107fc354a9b8a5939cd0b4d0cfae24c7f892dd778b565b579c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
Event: venezuela-election-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | venezuela-election-winner | Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | 60,271,349 | 60,271,349 |
2355ce2bd7158f82dedab162599820b81711f0e3 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xda6b02132a4739dca455b489aee53df859da5c01809b216be2a026110223f71c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?
Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office
Pre... | yes | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | 61,651,816 | 61,651,816 |
ad82b647855e9cebef09174b0c0798e8a60494b8 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xca4031d645b28cb8954cc425fbbb4394c6e783b595d52dab1fd4602844f18c5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $85m and $95m opening weekend? | 61,651,822 | 61,651,822 |
290f6abef7e047f51b5980ee1de1704cf3ab4b74 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x2c95c926e924f243aab41e96a90d22fcaf8cf273a678a07c49abb95fde489678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | august-2024-temperature-increase-c | August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C? | 61,664,129 | 61,664,129 |
cf52a5ef22794be4a978609122e3e3b1646f279c | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xfa7c3f38df227ee85db0511e88ecc329e6d715476a36017211723dfda23b1dce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | august-2024-temperature-increase-c | August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C? | 61,664,192 | 61,664,192 |
553310553247039d61aed0cce4930a95907f3409 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x70357debf15a956d82d8b2022aaf5f868763d1d0716d2c6e5ce35712e49a3b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | 61,990,392 | 61,990,392 |
c8dbc557dd1b10a078a06ad7a17f90a21c7abd9a | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xd9662074d7926b124f8e24d757ed50064a2f5f81d2ba4b6747ef352af33d87d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? | 62,856,202 | 62,856,202 |
6e460bc51d93c7836834954a8e516aaef0f7d576 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xa04d9d2ee9cc4d6d84538bfc8b7e674cc4fa9c2f0a843f88cfd74a784b85fa9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | when-will-sony-release-the-playstation-5-pro | Will Sony release the Playstation 5 Pro in Q4 2024? | 64,064,172 | 64,064,172 |
515c25da1b54d544a145f982ccf8e4a86e3e77f4 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x396d7be702dc88e1110b52b76b91056a87abf81b8e4a961b3e4702cc308ba574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-hhs-secretary | Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary? | 64,305,280 | 64,305,280 |
4b44744cefe85528c403d01939d18e77d5bd1394 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x54a1d0da9b18ac0dd1b1ae10fad2eb782427733e4ad2f14f190b979bbb5c7d65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 0.099964 | israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-in-2024 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? | 64,512,148 | 65,102,004 |
dac7359552d763e4a07ce95104a8c1c2201a3b84 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x62cb3e1f93e717296c7207c645adce86a47849997ab96191d05362dce2914300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | who-will-trump-nominate-for-agriculture-secretary | Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? | 64,664,769 | 64,664,769 |
93e3a1d5caa0d3f1381fed2612a6bb481749541b | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x1a5dbff18745feb9efda07f903126e59c957ca313bf44c819846136609fc6247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | 64,870,753 | 64,870,753 |
17cc78da345fe2c33672351b68161a2ae1b63dc4 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x2e9a4324f3e2269b6069daec1473eeb127859c72f9db70b3842d70fcb87c31dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,061,256 | 65,061,256 |
f32ac99cb04ab29cc8e6efe29bbb64ae5391bf82 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xad1b0c00056e2f29ac47f2b410a91f2dda57181d5c01257f6efa395089805558 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | andrew-tate-guilty-of-human-trafficking-in-2024 | Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? | 66,334,700 | 66,334,700 |
daca0d69ea945719d7a0ed685f36aaad76499823 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xb36d9c4fb1fac427ee93c27730c7c2b88c8e6000c7ff693bbcab68458b658f6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | will-ukraine-join-nato-in-2024 | Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024? | 66,334,703 | 66,334,703 |
a38159213c99cb0d0e0f09a1cd27c89ebdc7b72d | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xcd30346281d728bb08a85f4e36adccdd3c443300fa74aaefc7a4ee83744b4f49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | 66,334,703 | 66,334,703 |
8af33b72215d86319b08148880d706712fdfaa7b | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x2314e7f043881010b65cb14908494dfdc8b5ec9416fac883d4940873f3a080b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-2 | Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | 67,001,353 | 67,001,353 |
481f230ab85c984cce0fdc2af86476403e619f68 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xcc5a06c3b79f72f1abfd6bb4e360f627180fcb723a42f273ee625c4d6e65d241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 0.061205 | trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | 67,106,225 | 67,130,940 |
3f133b77853c24d777b713487fb51a1d8b3625d6 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xb147d0a5da2f7058bbd57e88b6d05b8159ac067bff9290d7e8cee561037570f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26? | 67,197,068 | 67,197,068 |
b0302c06c43b39787dd34f6bc0343655513ce8ee | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,247,882 | 67,247,882 |
a4a9995c30dbdf84a86c3db79a3b2eaa4bda9a4b | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 0 | will-russia-pull-out-of-syria | Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025? | 67,287,596 | 67,287,596 |
5a549eb83a498dd9a827cdbf225554c531f89ee6 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xa5ac4cdcfff44ddfb0d332d33575f766414465786fb7d4350782db40d5e9da11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 0.000115 | trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | 67,287,596 | 67,287,596 |
d0ac70250ba089531381319f72f0e2d6184b9b48 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xa096c4c14af77593e170d583a508d6ed8849cf406412d416020028f015020fb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 0.294576 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | 67,287,596 | 71,166,818 |
b98434e81422b1e1af753b525d5cff9ac3f0dbad | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x66a86bed2460bb982e1a9a22d111b08bea41349423ef9e8669570e488cf96de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 0.589953 | will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | 67,358,488 | 67,358,488 |
69b865db0b186b72e9387d373160ba4aad24e311 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x920d55e034e8591e9bcc5d1e5c8fd250283f5d2d2eed4fe138afa50c449781b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,397,378 | 67,397,378 |
dff0937bd414bb41fe46c2dea4a67e5f82903ff3 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x4d9f6935dcf70c4b27cd8f00ba6348191591bb9a2c842746fbb9b77dd63d57d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | 67,566,912 | 67,566,912 |
3dccd7c343e64778a543fe24cbdd6dfce8e87326 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x1c4b70bdfc589af7c4084b1d0517bfdfd8921c9fd624c0e80a49ecf630194429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 0.663393 | will-doge-bring-back-marko-elez-in-february | Will DOGE bring back Marko Elez in February? | 67,716,543 | 67,717,178 |
e45171ad582c5f8802ad84c590d2843ad4475a46 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x1f308d5009b7264e4f425417a8552fc08bd0939c9a73e74c03c8bc05242845a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 0.971496 | which-candidates-will-advance-in-romanian-presidential-election-1st-round | Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff? | 67,732,413 | 71,152,552 |
655d264325130c6125ce182e51b12e3e7d72609e | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x6837fb20ba39a81cf273970a3766a38306a6d819168a4a05a3c37128b4776e84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secretary | Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary? | 67,887,505 | 67,887,505 |
09bfbbb0400a5df33388828bab0329707a7cb9fe | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x005d2eab3e9c9b0418c45c8e97303668d88630a7287261180dc5edf700f197f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? | 68,005,986 | 68,005,986 |
bd10a768a522a2ca4d596a65f130523bf8f4ecb2 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election? | Event: venezuela-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,314,853 | 68,314,853 |
2b0c3e80079144fefae648b4401d51e1ba470a35 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x019abe7fb01d769cee8d8b4afc067d1b40f5b440b18da1941a35032f84bc7aba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $85m and $95m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-w... | no | 0.000004 | will-anyone-audibly-fart-during-digital-asset-summit | Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? | 69,294,281 | 69,294,281 |
1b447f6b70494d2bde390286ddb3608d9939ef5e | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xf57fab5f1f0695eeacff603f431184d2db19350aab3f729b85ddd39b66cc24ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $85m and $95m opening weekend? | Event: beetlejuice-beetlejuice-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C? | Event: august-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | israeli-military-action-against-iran-by-friday | Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? | 69,352,760 | 69,352,760 |
b4d9412bc68c412838d3ac57667c32fa926f1b09 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x040915034b8d3240ce0e33f38ba7aae4a77c51b27998c4114cb1f9d3468c907e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: August temperature increase greater than 1.29°C? | Event: august-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C? | Event: august-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases ... | yes | 1 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-mar-31-2025 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? | 69,757,141 | 69,757,141 |
f699111a305550822862a3e0806db5bf5b4fb06c | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x9f65517eb17b4fa4a7c35fbb8b010b86438b5f91dacd92332d782f5240ee9fb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: August temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29°C? | Event: august-2024-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0.113176 | will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-june | Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | 69,830,538 | 69,877,246 |
13df4e0d6d9f7d2d5aac9f94f884bf569f31e64d | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x88fad6af135ca7cbd55a8bda5a1243125ded68b1e521066009cc990b13960b88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-september-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 0 | nyse-marketwide-circuit-breaker-in-2025 | NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | 70,137,033 | 70,137,033 |
b641179b426bb6b16707d5da0e4790354f48e559 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x5e8042ee380c9246f361bd68dbc50876e798d429e20799daffa435b8e089feca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi? | Event: who-will-hbo-doc-identify-as-satoshi | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sony release the Playstation 5 Pro in Q4 2024? | Event: when-will-sony-release-the-playstation-5-pro | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? | 70,141,815 | 70,141,815 |
8325b36499a748a4485b1d6106d0f77fd5df62ab | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x7ded24e43b37ca583dc01a901c6e511fb22bc1df478c004f67928e0f70b296ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sony release the Playstation 5 Pro in Q4 2024? | Event: when-will-sony-release-the-playstation-5-pro | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-hhs-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30? | 70,660,468 | 70,660,468 |
5635c74b560f7ca08634665d500a8cf81cedb1cf | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-hhs-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? | Event: israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09996360233257238
3. Question: Will T... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,951,078 | 70,951,078 |
48c46d9e7d8f56f5ad2d9cc1a9fe8d482afbbea7 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x778c304547cd1edfc3d4e16ae3e7ccbc19feec635724cd373e5acd8645856966 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? | Event: israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09996360233257238
2. Question: Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-agriculture-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30? | 70,952,657 | 70,952,657 |
6f708ce9329837e035ed40d7aba1bd442d2a33f6 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x106b080f86a538a0d64d62495139fd34944c51ec564162b459e55218d66dc617 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? | Event: who-will-trump-nominate-for-agriculture-secretary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | us-announces-afghanistan-military-base-in-april | US announces Afghanistan military base in April? | 70,973,428 | 70,973,428 |
41058d6bcbd44dcdf088a69d5dd4b5fb5db14aa5 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x94631ed57d3803fe789adbbba4c0d66ef2a8ed4f800c1a6897a37ad076cf309d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? | Event: hyperliquid-token-launch-wen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Andrew Tate ... | no | 1 | trump-x-ukraine-mineral-deal-signed-before-may | Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? | 71,084,194 | 71,084,194 |
77b6b43bd057a437f9a1a032af614b604bbd9a09 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x2158f77724c533b76dc9544657007d4b63e70eb259c164a12c86b1f24f6f361f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? | Event: andrew-tate-guilty-of-human-trafficking-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 0.248648 | trump-announce-run-for-3rd-term | Trump announce run for 3rd term? | 71,131,826 | 71,131,858 |
b0968ef06abdc0639bbc30b9a81d62a49cc0f069 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x3a369bc286924ad5ec7b8a6c906ebd7e79739d8b97fc1bc0ca0f629d71963a94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? | Event: andrew-tate-guilty-of-human-trafficking-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024? | Event: will-ukraine-join-nato-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q... | no | 1 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | 71,152,552 | 71,152,552 |
edcd438af7bc648d95a05157ef2ad9f5633d62c9 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xd7ae128967f894b9eef9aec572fede03e801ebc185cdb618b05f0d7162efe781 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024? | Event: will-ukraine-join-nato-in-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | Event: ho... | no | 0 | openai-becomes-a-for-profit-in-2025 | OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | 71,153,760 | 71,153,964 |
34e25ebcb7eedb4537f7d7492ddf66e1a916b1cf | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x8702261edac5d25be23c11c9d81fa3a08a95959a19197439dcbd616dfff0a371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | Event: first-ftx-bankruptcy-payout | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Trump declassifies JFK... | no | 1 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | 71,166,818 | 71,166,818 |
1296855234b85a1cb2760f47854554610b31f1bf | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x37e6c1227c1ee562cbd906099dadbd658ddca8cdb9730736857b4d82701c6393 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 21? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | Event: trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.061204943018... | yes | 1 | next-chancellor-of-germany | Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | 71,194,044 | 71,194,044 |
54b18025e83bbfb266e15c2ebe020d89d2163cb4 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xffffb2874475ae9c1e3a0e3c3c4b4e329eb3105427aa484f357bf41c5fd77c4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump declassifies JFK files in first week? | Event: trump-declassifies-jfk-files-in-first-week | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06120494301815068
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | C... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | 71,237,763 | 71,237,763 |
3145f65b92a013e7d6ed40463a9a185879f3b205 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choic... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,250,024 | 71,250,024 |
68202e42d72058b9da20ea14b0367f4291749aaa | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x49ac6b66581bce72d76268430e0d9acd3fc9bc7e7841cec7cbbdd270bc1a489f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025? | Event: will-russia-pull-out-of-syria | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Trump e... | no | 0 | pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-by-friday-956 | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? | 71,312,795 | 71,312,795 |
fc5d8c6b17616078a07d52aa5c2f378f03a77070 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x7438e4e9db9de0d894207eedc2f1d4c74d2866034760ec48c99f560efc3c5922 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025? | Event: will-russia-pull-out-of-syria | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Event: trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00011464828472501576
3. Question: Will Căli... | yes | 1 | pakistan-airmissile-strike-on-indian-soil-in-may | Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil in May? | 71,333,752 | 71,333,752 |
b326e9d07fb31f0ea3c76a3fcaf384926c6b0952 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x3282e5d3e9c10396d0ccc4d129774cab5eecea3897fe678f540555a20046ed8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Event: trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00011464828472501576
2. Question: Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-ro... | yes | 0 | will-fartcoin-be-listed-on-hyperliquid-before-may-14 | Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week? | 71,475,146 | 71,475,146 |
4b684030b804c47f64686330496d57d90c7efadd | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xc2cc475142c25f842fdc17ed3f617632d7e639f61dcb94888d22b2e3636ecce1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.29457560192458043
2. Question: Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | Event: will-t... | no | 0.000001 | will-putin-meet-with-zelenskyy-by-friday | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? | 71,531,352 | 71,531,352 |
97ccb8d26a7d579c2e7e217d4f4fc8f6ecc951a4 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? | Event: will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5899530895174351
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Event: largest-company-on-january-31... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,694,284 | 71,694,284 |
d315ac51b5470185ae6ac558cf1827ae9af225bb | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x7c40d60588b721d3a3eb775bab5bb9f4ff89cb45307d1ef4b9090153150a97b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | Event: largest-company-on-january-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on May 31? | 72,211,158 | 72,211,158 |
977bab55f7683535d3ef5faa39c4deb8d0dd1446 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xd29b9c891042ab16eda7589d009e71261ab3df3ec561e867bd02795cdc3a75d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will DOGE bring back Marko Elez in February? | Event: will-doge-bring-back-marko-elez-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.66339... | yes | 1 | india-pakistan-declare-war-before-june | India-Pakistan declare war before June? | 72,228,297 | 72,228,297 |
1a5d5895ac8dac07d15a8f1dedc33aef6bd49048 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will DOGE bring back Marko Elez in February? | Event: will-doge-bring-back-marko-elez-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6633929352659583
2. Question: Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff? | Event: which-candidates-will-advance-in-romanian-president... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,267,622 | 72,267,622 |
b2642519d47e2841734c7b3ae10517b77f9d7f5d | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x30f262c6a1267418b4804da863df50d5af9a9aaef1e5d972d1e8e191155b987a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff? | Event: which-candidates-will-advance-in-romanian-presidential-election-1st-round | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9714955421648062
2. Question: Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary? | Event: who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secre... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%? | 72,291,618 | 72,291,618 |
4a4c4c10a8df5863c62e5645f13f63b7c73f2024 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary? | Event: who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secretary | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the ne... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,329,840 | 72,329,840 |
734f936552365ead83cfc2bacc89026fe3d662a3 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xf9425f69ce7fbde7ee54887ea24b164d2d4c06b594c4d4f94b1921cd79321b19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will anyone audibly ... | no | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,329,840 | 72,329,840 |
a033101ca66735bf0360f8557d19052d3c087e7a | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? | Event: will-anyone-audibly-fart-during-digital-asset-summit | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.8206... | no | 0.000001 | israel-military-action-against-iran-before-july | Israel military action against Iran before July? | 72,668,474 | 72,668,474 |
1fde2aeb6a0e054cfa0503fae365b4346fef24a4 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x052d57cb01437fefba9bef4c0fd06c4cd97acd628d193697bbd11f6c8bd62d68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? | Event: will-anyone-audibly-fart-during-digital-asset-summit | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.8206182841272414e-06
2. Question: Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? | Event: israeli-military-action-against-iran-by-friday | Choice: ... | yes | 0.958963 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-july-2025 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? | 72,668,474 | 73,436,143 |
c9068941ad066070675bba07a2b90ed1c2ce5172 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xd219e16129ab22d86c00d294e17b7d53cc2b6423033be8b68f94ec9550214f39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? | Event: israeli-military-action-against-iran-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-mar-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump in... | yes | 0.656609 | houthi-strike-on-israel-before-july | Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? | 72,724,902 | 73,466,773 |
b4db97225db4859291279d049306f55881dcd05f | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? | Event: israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-mar-31-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | Event: will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.11317562491520909
... | no | 0.087785 | us-military-action-against-iran-before-july | US military action against Iran before July? | 73,002,901 | 73,002,901 |
5483c7348cf3f5731fa6bb2a1eca905db35aebbb | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x997b435aeeb8a9b81a4d1374510529b915908639193e1f84f37267c19794c3f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June? | Event: will-trump-increase-sanctions-on-russia-before-june | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.11317562491520909
2. Question: NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | Event: nyse-marketwide-circuit-breaker-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0.997276 | will-iran-strike-gulf-oil-facilities-before-july | Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July? | 73,002,901 | 73,002,901 |
468fc429669d009451c701c17fce322ef33d07d5 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xeff458dac9abcf69cdb56a41c445738058a829b281992d5fe3388f0b3936211d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | Event: nyse-marketwide-circuit-breaker-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? | Event: march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0 | will-trump-announce-military-action-against-iran-before-july | Will Trump announce military action against Iran before July? | 73,061,666 | 73,067,024 |
df2e23ced0892cff0c3e30092dd69c93429e4229 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xfe4ddfdf4e6b6188967331f5932c8ec6dcbc815572ef9f3566b5d903a708b61f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? | Event: march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july | Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | 73,067,619 | 73,427,649 |
dbb761898711cb0d85ee845ba3690e153fb11a86 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xff5137265a5541424ce7d67cea3cd1833d8cf745c20f3697d487e4f5656b70cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.479594 | iran-military-response-by | Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 30? | 73,129,457 | 73,208,499 |
0d321614518976d225d96fa55cd0999ef8d28f8f | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x5d2110fad0732d6bf14770ebb909a186fdf5d17ce25e55c927eda26f54c796af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | next-prime-minister-of-romania | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be George Simion? | 73,158,501 | 73,158,501 |
9e25b727d536cbe7971754e74afc1244c9975a2c | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x6614828eb735b658bb9c448b6d217f639f3ee17a3d0776cd41b1b86398491b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US announces Afghanistan military base in April? | Event: us-announces-afghanistan-military-base-in-april | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | will-india-invade-pakistan-before-june | Will India invade Pakistan before July? | 73,436,143 | 73,436,143 |
dcc1ac3cf578d311febca31caac1141b8a4159c8 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0x0d133da4c0c95cef63d19e8d5bef0ed0cf2616f81bfc843fecfd8469fe54be49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US announces Afghanistan military base in April? | Event: us-announces-afghanistan-military-base-in-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? | Event: trump-x-ukraine-mineral-deal-signed-before-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m? | 73,710,463 | 73,710,463 |
c4dcd6f4e1931ffb75ac29c72b3e1ec517a87c69 | 0x088ffbbc6f2c0b3839d2832e75f37e1bcecbc9e7 | 0xd9840e7924f7458f9a4cea9d3b117238d9dc68ea07f861c9a42c382d74744387 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? | Event: trump-x-ukraine-mineral-deal-signed-before-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump announce run for 3rd term? | Event: trump-announce-run-for-3rd-term | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.24864754387456298
3. Question: Will George... | yes | 0.000003 | us-strikes-yemen-before-august | US strikes Yemen before August? | 73,826,291 | 73,826,291 |
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