sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3d73e6a560634d7642f40c85b7b76b203ddd16de | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x308794564c1a7eb33451adfaacd012fc76a56a2475c163fb6e1491419f4c1fa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | adrian-dittmann-of-tweets-january-3-10 | Will Dittman tweet between 60 and 69 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,714,698 | 66,714,698 |
219467c6c80d0686c92a4d0a92dd0189b0a908f6 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x94aa7a2a4106356c803c6955c5eb46152cd58c372b843ce02a8db0239dd74a46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | no | 1 | global-heat-increase-2024 | Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024? | 66,714,698 | 66,714,698 |
faabd275b407ec30e31d44f2ca3a43a759a5923a | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x99027e405731cec721127a7d96da3c28bc9a6d83638596193d91b561a718cbf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,714,698 | 66,714,698 |
c5e00d53fd5fd6f42c02ace4a0c21837dc29c6fe | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0xd971abf6d25fb08d4386846f314b57f33e09f3cf8a1327de3c731f6d29b837cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | no | 1 | december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | 66,714,698 | 66,714,698 |
a2cdd83c2db9a225879b973b0358c0827775a4bf | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0xf78c31c6ea7fabeed89ef8411af11f94ed69f66c6ddbd32c88ecdab2634927ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,714,698 | 66,714,698 |
09debc3ed331452b2a9f9db5590096c54091515b | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x4f10ba569f9b3589a1bca4b719d73b28ce5f05555decf7f0845b6450a538d386 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,714,699 | 66,714,699 |
29a3d2e3bfb3df35583f61068afaca4104665c03 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0xb66abcfb57eb86effef8a728011c837f305216804183b050e8b705745434c042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-10-continued | Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,714,699 | 66,714,699 |
f62b605be5caa6d323792dd7ac4324bbe1a920a6 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 67,322,023 | 67,322,023 |
9931bc1ab6878e84196843b4f47417b2ef32d269 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,322,024 | 67,322,024 |
6ec82b0550eb0e2dfaad34c967e23202eda1b195 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x7e58abd89b04a34b4a066d94c0bcf53cf0c7ccd9f568c6c1a339d996bce6356a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | 67,322,024 | 67,322,024 |
8763a537a87c7bd4da4d37fd8c781188df0019cd | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x6a539d6b727716a683def53c8ace5f876a2b01b4fd4b74675a89e4c4ed9788e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France?
Event: next-french-prime-minister
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | next-french-prime-minister | Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | 63,069,314 | 63,069,314 |
0fd1ad95f7d0881d8ebd9a56f4dc185e88b01bee | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x8c6387e2221479e46e76f7c06641f96bd1895cd815225824d6a3bcd046943fc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France?
Event: next-french-prime-minister
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output str... | no | 1 | next-french-prime-minister | Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | 63,069,314 | 63,069,314 |
d3cab6fd75bad26a7dab4c7142c6a2a5c8648704 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x9a872b0da4652c144f34302906446fd93de7e20ddda42f3bc39cf5342324daad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime... | no | 1 | next-french-prime-minister | Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of France? | 63,069,314 | 63,069,314 |
8d3542bc25c1b05c7218e1771d70bd106e853db4 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xe6c986842244b43245207841d987e9885688fe0c362eedd1249a9029a2004739 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | trump-vs-harris-polling-margin-friday-oct-4 | Will Trump lead in RCP on Oct 4? | 63,069,314 | 63,069,314 |
e9463122993e071246b3668e2f69f7cedf55d870 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x78c311c856fc22431bae03b2b3d3fa74f7d0c9f46552619367c92208a7797b52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | yes | 1 | joker-folie-a-deux-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? | 63,069,319 | 63,069,319 |
c68c9aaf15204d6d67ebdcb5e246a4b16e302179 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x7fb0b7244a692b85d354c65ebcd03f8d43bf13c7dbf7cb4605e77c6185fb9125 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | next-french-prime-minister | Eric Ciotti next Prime Minister of France? | 63,069,319 | 63,069,319 |
5298c3a6c6c23fd1ce0e72c4d5e32d4bb2efd10b | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x0e8fc620e52455faed4c33d14f6a8f8d69788362f4480d779115630ddf9f000b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | september-2024-temperature-increase-c | September temperature increase by less than 1.17°C? | 65,888,193 | 65,888,193 |
8b71bbd50e1fcd4a552d8d1dc4efe29d8b64ee1a | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x325038359610a566c0963c9f0ea2ea33b2ddedf7808898c4ed4166787213f1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | yes | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to no prison time? | 65,888,193 | 65,888,193 |
d4bfc79fa8f3a3db18c09393016f9fb040a75438 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x8abf82eb4647a787edf71dd017852e4bc8219c4e833e3013f861ed989fde38f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | connecticut-presidential-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut Presidential Election? | 65,888,193 | 65,888,193 |
81ac13e3417c8092fc4c918dd37154e58834a060 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xbb9312495200f165c8e5ea714a2286d1a8f840fe1e50d91c7f82cd1762fb2656 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | next-james-bond-actor | Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? | 66,708,469 | 66,708,469 |
ecb9fad268c0cb6ec09d85a0cc47f3a0e23ce1b7 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xdf27fa31b9fa64575e07fa5af8cb7ff9a2b4e8bc60ffd116999c5eb8fb57945c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | next-james-bond-actor | Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond? | 66,708,469 | 66,708,469 |
28ac52cab7414cb97aa5ddbb169a393e1c395df2 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | next-james-bond-actor | Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? | 66,708,469 | 66,708,469 |
04ed214c4d6a6cd00d68e30ca438e418b146ea5d | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xf16beeed75c5f75a6bec765511631c5f145b0328d20a29d4f73b1f7f3dbf8657 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | next-james-bond-actor | Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? | 66,708,469 | 66,708,469 |
9f98e0d56f570309a5a9672f5318fae13af54e6a | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x19ceaa8e4dc8e9146fd9a82dda67a11c3fbfde4425e699ee46362a3ced83ab87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,814,845 | 67,814,845 |
4091b0f0e931a3c551b51bebc0d94e6acdfa92b0 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x88f26c6c4ceb821a38206eaa354e7a33dc1350cd08a5495625314877917bb80d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-ireland | Will Roderic O'Gorman be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? | 67,814,845 | 67,814,845 |
5bfa95ab491892370afd97480c0a5e998072c49a | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xbbdf490c4c7585675e11a23c70b46099a9d8edb05719dc45bf2f428617e3abb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | nfc-champion | Will the Rams win the NFC Championship? | 67,814,845 | 67,814,845 |
9b1192fad4b52e1eabcf5822d5e9b6b0bc9c51d3 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xf93660084fe450ce104644078abb801012baf4238d61763e26165fc5b42b155b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | ontario-parliamentary-election-winner | Will the New Democrats win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election? | 68,607,936 | 68,607,936 |
c190152e4a633ec23fd318c14424ddc95dd39a5d | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xe36b2294a52e0d9c2f0ff6eb3973a52ba4d20e96d180a082efaeb9d31db47830 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-canadian-election | Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | 71,068,859 | 71,068,859 |
7a5c6c2da5527c5571b29253b71eebf3c2535ab5 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x637a5ea27eaf78e1014c7610a2c5b455a280bf32412468002c9a9eaf98ab6dc3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | next-government-of-australia | Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority? | 72,696,784 | 72,696,784 |
19c40da21416785da8e7d9548f9b55cf483973fe | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xc686bd00ec0428d1e72b82d6379a32d668f69ccef45debdae418039d47e658c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | f1-canadian-grand-prix-winner | Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? | 73,695,226 | 73,695,226 |
0e8a3b606a976418189e40be05192badfcf4cc62 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xdd01414a0ff92d9ccd3190372885b2e58348ec8c029f56358a6e9d1a0fd0d30e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will FlyQuest win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 74,077,275 | 74,077,275 |
c5f787c4f2c9cfd20a97274450eb999773cc7c3a | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x362c61cfb577a719526b03e7596a3ef3d6d9aadf5292e2e2391c2cdf62892730 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | 74,767,077 | 74,767,077 |
6452138a30383f0e7c4b5f7b2410e8a7d5cee1b9 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xd762dd57bc18c369ca9137668cc88c5754e1e4da65236bcf494e2be9562917ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | malawi-presidential-election-981 | Will Joyce Banda win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? | 77,649,611 | 77,649,611 |
ac4744759121e1bd6ef78a81916e62c143464503 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x15561b3e2df99d1121997c74832dd5d36abbb3d7ef72a311ad43cb663e84e98e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? | 78,200,939 | 78,200,939 |
691699c77569c933504e37656e484e924e1b5128 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x36cb5f8c6f1f3fd2d39a5773631d18e28b9dbe59dffc1e14df9387ece405b6fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? | 78,200,939 | 78,200,939 |
693e5ac2999b8ff06e4a499d9ce9634a37cf73f7 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x5d499a5a6108c7376f45acf40563f6120a431e2e56d8af382217de673b2f4ecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? | 78,200,939 | 78,200,939 |
b4a4a40663f8c82e00666c80e9903f7bc4bd89ba | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0x922e3703ad7c0398358e4b6cb9624c56a01269e00c1a76becb907a3faad2bbf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? | 78,200,939 | 78,200,939 |
fcc98076af36415476156826f25a8769dd016ebf | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xd92a52db01b8e5847c7349c405b7c4291de06953c7cb175d585ff5e78a4a253b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix pole? | 78,200,939 | 78,200,939 |
e34aabf6b1a38dc60e21814d58141db525778fe7 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xdd05dff3cdc8005b7fde5e275d8ceab76673f1900987d7d190b787e24c91cf5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Will Alpine have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 78,200,939 | 78,200,939 |
f8bacc72d346cf4cbadc55dffe236c59873c1a97 | 0x0909a5dae309d9b3cb226bb99a5b182d8012754a | 0xf66fdb28c7389dfe41fae032d1a3542464fa02a1ce42f7695080186c175e8b0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Laurent Berger next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Marine Le Pen next Prime Minister of France? | Event: next-french-prime-minister | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Jean-Luc Melenchon next Prime Minister of ... | no | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-1st | Will Aston Martin have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 78,200,939 | 78,200,939 |
945672912abba822ed8c63655b12869aabc8d674 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xa92931d92f2616c04ba0f8bae402c9200380c6577732b9c7bfe38818288adc88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14?
Event: solana-price-on-october-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | 77,684,655 | 77,684,655 |
4a676932ac8ca318a8eb3bd6d2c5a3f374d93e5e | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xf29d3cbbdabda56ce48cd97d5f468019c44a6a532309d397a2552be0633f6bb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14?
Event: solana-price-on-october-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence f... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | 77,684,655 | 77,684,655 |
778641063258eb23cc828329955a0eba2482fde7 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x203724b6732e51443876cb7d6f057885ae7d5f492693aa816e0961ea8afd9ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Questio... | yes | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,011,083 | 78,011,083 |
28dc2ec8158ba4f2f14ca7f28a9d742da5b9cea4 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x6357420f127da202885b329b0ab345d8e4cad127e8f85f3919cbcc43b5fc1511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | 78,011,083 | 78,011,083 |
2f2d8ee3c40110f801c7c68fa6bd0955f5198f46 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x9fc7409858de8572111082603e165c85e3a6078009db880a5fe5fb57d6c4c3c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,011,083 | 78,011,083 |
59fd5cd341dfd6d183c3b79b61cbd919ee47144a | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xf3ac6c8e5dba7a18c546587d855cdf1e20c5a6826f1d34dedbcb4229140702db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | 78,011,083 | 78,011,083 |
ee2c5339e7d53ad4a9f447379d4e13e7fc7ec26d | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x0b82821f6e2d907a1a719dc94531268e99bd2c686ed0587fe70632fa85e7788c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | spl-fay-taa-2025-10-23 | Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-10-23? | 78,072,860 | 78,072,860 |
38716161af05b109aef9373a3d9e8e6405d521e6 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x79609881fe49e5289b45333beb052cd6ad42c801a3349eb5c69fec825923ea9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | uel-goa1-ast4-2025-10-23 | Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? | 78,095,707 | 78,095,707 |
caca20e5ada6f6fddfb4a5c43a0803e3ffa87663 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x8420848b911c110e9d6fe3c9b6bde6d5f5b957f5a5a4605ee6605690ece8c557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | uel-yob1-lud1-2025-10-23 | Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | 78,095,707 | 78,095,707 |
ac338dee54b86ef3881c61855214d5a338face8b | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xa26ac375eabcaf287a9ee25a71a067125f388b510fed679510aad6797a1007bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | 78,095,707 | 78,095,707 |
69ea90536dcab49c5eaf897527e0d06c81132754 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xf7414748322d2689606f5030537182231f3c5e6e01fbcdd370b17fcab1291855 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | 78,095,707 | 78,095,707 |
913ee0f26c7fff2bd519f97e4753cfde173a085c | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x17cd926896aa499bea870e218dc2e32c99f102237e6ae90f49f4b03d69cac4da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | ireland-presidential-election | Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | 78,201,658 | 78,201,658 |
89b5c3146336a9cb585285c9b34eaf7b46702abd | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x66ec7e2bb2dc538206761e9a7ef5836a239807a2c161e904c83023af6a429eed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-str-2025-10-26 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | 78,242,938 | 78,242,938 |
1f7611ef367583d94e2ca4fda8e55d672ad7912f | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xab00d3d93312cacea864022590bf9eaaef711686ac21bbe4212e53b0e4107c81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-ala-2025-10-26 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-26? | 78,242,938 | 78,242,938 |
d6bf087f0893992847f8c9513c8bd7e8559c3493 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xc3e184df47498c57139892d9ebd7ff1bdca29c80d4298211d1e13d75e4bf6726 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | 78,282,858 | 78,282,858 |
8be1e3fd6dbbe0d2d4d949cb20aab56061caba6e | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xfe96b81152abf34035302b4c337abbf8417c1e8fc7b31478c398b3da814240e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | den-ode-bro-2025-10-27 | Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | 78,282,858 | 78,282,858 |
9aa498221b4871c23e26396200204800492aefcd | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xc60adc7b47a5b89fcaa0a1ec790c38ac76656c04a03bab51f143b68b95c2993e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | dfb-fce-rbl-2025-10-28 | Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2025-10-28? | 78,308,647 | 78,308,647 |
b9432ba3afbab63145fa8ff9f0dab3501e0f6c68 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xce14a542f76071d8d65130886be15c68fd7348887dbbe8bbbd3d7631917119d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Will Lecce win on 2025-10-28? | 78,308,647 | 78,308,647 |
83c2b05896e06bc38ffe2d9c8ae2e0fec5eb9bb2 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xeb3f582e67e501331f133bea29f832301aa13b3a1710fbcc1eeacf386cea5221 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | dfb-wob-ksv-2025-10-28 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-28? | 78,308,647 | 78,308,647 |
5213bc913396f8f5159230276fe520108a45015f | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xfa8018e45235ff04947a5aba33797ee9cd998fa2bb28ff6fd4a7a775ac1474d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-10-28? | 78,308,647 | 78,308,647 |
bce29c91780ef2f284b0672999d251ecac0fcd7f | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x083416aa3e520383536b351cfcfcbf3876764ecf70683d110be1487018ba584f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | bra-flu-csc-2025-10-29 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,355,888 | 78,355,888 |
094b2dd47daa9b574da61597e91c89fff263469b | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x88cc982ef6102d2202214c0c53c59a629eeefb084f24a0ce4a38a6b9a4af43d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | fl1-olm-ang-2025-10-29 | Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | 78,355,888 | 78,355,888 |
aaf5470560ee836988562411f040a4a8a9896940 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xe7f0f9b8c424e412b0e677a1e3e10a4aba797851a500d424f0eb4ce130b6e3f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-30? | 78,396,932 | 78,396,932 |
957fc21be3a251c2839874e9f03eaa8dcf6bb829 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x4608e77181e31ea47bc5fa13499ca568ec7d9a32dd3b3ec74f78620caed5f7a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,414,199 | 78,414,199 |
cc40a9cbd151c5722b4a8d75cdb8dba4e8f83ab1 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xd4ca539a4ebbc42db533c7a166327280da03e6a62fdcb3bcf3030dba13c96ede | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | chi-shp-zhe-2025-10-31 | Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,414,199 | 78,414,199 |
4a16dbf86062c5374958e31c6277f6c56a29d1a8 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xd7bcd5f62ba835b641dc35add63976f588d134cb125101829407961fb9483610 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | 2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-731 | Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? | 78,424,413 | 78,424,413 |
6fc88b0c301c93e615d7472b7a8830a9b19120ec | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xc96665c1d75c90385ed4c4250c90c53fed9adf54e8c21952fd5765f0a635aad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | rus-csk-nov-2025-10-31 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-31? | 78,438,717 | 78,438,717 |
ca57a45134e57451898ca52951aef57f9fc3dc18 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xffdc82a879a8dbef493a59f5bc8fb3f2de140fecc28fd70fb1a8c3ffc09d42f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | yes | 1 | ere-psv-sit-2025-10-31 | Will PSV win on 2025-10-31? | 78,438,717 | 78,438,717 |
4fff8fc903ee4a1c01078c8c34bd7b34a186ffed | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x4fe77bbd58dff5bf27e52b4eb05577fb339684d9beedb4bc347d31b881e19564 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | aus-new-syd-2025-11-01 | Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,445,295 | 78,445,295 |
2ef7acb8a89e9019d4a4b21d87961bb40e08f534 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x91c56e65dca59f905572df77fe34d3d53750d8eb960a2fc2265051d4df3691ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | kor-san-poh-2025-11-01 | Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,449,940 | 78,449,940 |
99422688dc91efa8e9fe66b06fddbbefb185554f | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xdf3bdc84dd17163bd7feaaf12271f5f68a271f1b0188161dda037d3e1a9c89ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris... | no | 1 | chi-sha-jin-2025-11-01 | Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,449,940 | 78,449,940 |
de0b09e47ff9c0423743a8db741f9387ae89e927 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x2c6789c9431c99e009b89dc785b649472850e0bb0f89dd3793c8b5dd3acf28ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be less than $180 on October 14? | Event: solana-price-on-october-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano w... | no | 1 | epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,465,996 | 78,465,996 |
56de6f354424ea2f2a25e08abde8f94d41af7877 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x3a774977a7c45f48e9838f4353c551e25d5eec0604dc1a772d232bd4cb19bffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event:... | no | 1 | epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | 78,465,996 | 78,465,996 |
b95c1f2bb4c93cba37fa7a13cf639363212ff8a8 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x96634633577ebc7500136dee2136f35454824deb4e74f8a116a707d83bc1f8d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-1... | no | 1 | bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01? | 78,465,996 | 78,465,996 |
94fda936790c409397a21b9fd6137e403ceea705 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x056e76932b9e8581064ae928345011ef7014786ea72eae82a3b5ca325f0abc78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-10-23? | Event: spl-fay-taa-2025-10-2... | no | 1 | fl1-lil-ang-2025-11-02 | Will Angers SCO win on 2025-11-02? | 78,509,705 | 78,509,705 |
e4bbcd06548ada9fe1c7062fb17ad5277983e0da | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xc0ccbdadc3b92b954c0bf36de26e270cca570b0be0fef3f33d003d340dbcb9cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-10-23? | Event: spl-fay-taa-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-goa1-ast4-20... | yes | 1 | atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | 78,509,705 | 78,509,705 |
823e51d445968428672315da8153db08be70a170 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xfb8f4369b49f6726ba2ca5ee75393745e2a438e22d3462b882d454f43409fe88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-10-23? | Event: spl-fay-taa-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-goa1-ast4-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel... | no | 1 | arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 | Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03? | 78,573,575 | 78,573,575 |
e2a724d47d7da571e5b1cbeb03499cd5a5b2c7e9 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x2538a1d8ab0b1daf60896fbc4ebc6d0d63417f05764601655cf40a3cdbfc730c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-goa1-ast4-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-yob1-lud1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-ut... | no | 1 | ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-11-04? | 78,616,988 | 78,616,988 |
3a070f45c46e2e45add28a2f7700f74dea4e0bf0 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x895093179fad1e484d51a0e99dd32148088d0e678436477fe0971c9be55509b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-yob1-lud1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mid... | no | 1 | ucl-ben-lev-2025-11-05 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? | 78,655,783 | 78,655,783 |
bcd985fd1fc702ccf17e95cb56e025ee7a0ae27b | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xf3a7eabbfc1d68e4659f8539a17e6259802f853c3b2211192c8c4dc5d152732d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | E... | no | 1 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,655,783 | 78,655,783 |
ce64ff659e0a34be5f458322e0276443e206f18a | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x582277d98d0d72c630c12b973ef6ce11ae1abe50be7cc49ce8aa1aa949345fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-10-23? | Event: uel-mta1-mid1-2025-10-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Event: ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025... | no | 1 | bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-07? | 78,752,835 | 78,752,835 |
aa43a0bd7df07713ef4296b40a1771cf3991fd7f | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xac4fdbe4b3043f9f1219ad055c01b3c2c3cd896896c428d8b905034f88f4464d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Event: ireland-presidential-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo-str-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-1... | no | 1 | ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-09? | 78,811,826 | 78,811,826 |
aecd214ba359e0fd96237ada8a7231d31c384e29 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xcf07e94b3a74e1860fec28a6fd6f88321863d037ed2f8664cb259b21ff860a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26? | Event: fl1-lyo-str-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-26? | Event: lal-ray-ala-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2... | no | 1 | bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-09? | 78,831,095 | 78,831,095 |
46fd6807e9f1128c46a61878eea8001c516da248 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xc21479304a8793ebc495ca49d2d0c3a5eadd7f2b50fd7e021e46e89c5c3ed745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-10-26? | Event: lal-ray-ala-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | Event: den-ode-bro-2025-10-27... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-7-november-14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | 78,852,536 | 78,852,536 |
4cff319e87f96210de2c55cde2430c43c33a959a | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x05014b6073018829bc2dc891dc788aa2835ac119500c4aa9867b5da1e8b09de0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27? | Event: lal-bet-mad-2025-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | Event: den-ode-bro-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-fce-rbl-2025-1... | no | 1 | arg-rie-ind-2025-11-10 | Will CD Riestra win on 2025-11-10? | 78,874,333 | 78,874,333 |
683f9276ad924d7048842cdefe6dbfde4867e897 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xa13265b2c87f6eb41889cd992ecb6629f7e787eb15b7c36ed10792b08cd58e60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-10-27? | Event: den-ode-bro-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-fce-rbl-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-4-november-11 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? | 78,894,085 | 78,894,085 |
91a58c963da8f69bc90ece51dff021ec640699a7 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x2450d563f75eac55ac7ed30d02179cf5d4aeba06c614f07b9aa4951511009c69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Energie Cottbus win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-fce-rbl-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-wob-ksv-2025-10-2... | no | 1 | fif-alg-zim-2025-11-13 | Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-11-13? | 78,999,250 | 78,999,250 |
782bbb888d785afc555abedf11ce669ab7069ccc | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x83faaf96641064af302c5685019819328940548f09a1756bbd1c18676a94a2cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-10-28? | Event: sea-lec-nap-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-wob-ksv-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-hei-hsv-2025-1... | no | 1 | uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Will Azerbaijan vs. Iceland end in a draw? | 78,999,250 | 78,999,250 |
59efaf82ee39c11676180091a6ec56a43e2b0197 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x98a69eee30afe8da11938da20f13ea809d908f6f8c8d4b741372cd7d8b86b3a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-wob-ksv-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: bra-flu-csc-202... | no | 1 | uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Will Estonia win on 2025-11-13? | 78,999,250 | 78,999,250 |
44a2b89cfc2d7f2077a2e180c0761181ba98d71d | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xfa9cc2fb4031c1a8c2a2501d09f2d2f1e7d845846c29975c7de1a365e87d40b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2025-10-28? | Event: dfb-hei-hsv-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: bra-flu-csc-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-olm-ang-2025-1... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-7-november-14 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | 79,027,122 | 79,027,122 |
e1535a7db26c9021e10fe6e0a3a9b0b8e95294f8 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x8612235e7a3288cb614a33e927f046e6cee42c6266b09451a216a0b0b4116bcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: bra-flu-csc-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-olm-ang-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-30? | Event: sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Choice... | no | 1 | uef-geo-esp-2025-11-15 | Will Georgia win on 2025-11-15? | 79,070,429 | 79,070,429 |
30039cb86b3a86dfb087fd5bf1f5d29ea0490145 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xda49a81339ef7471d571a54b125dfd0e13016c31c5a90f1a6f1f19e6c35b01db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-olm-ang-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-30? | Event: sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-202... | yes | 1 | uef-geo-esp-2025-11-15 | Will Spain win on 2025-11-15? | 79,070,429 | 79,070,429 |
71e8c0b157838bb0ccdffc9f50f85325517d6c56 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x5bc69479b60b6555505e1d4cb6d9100ac9909ae277b8a49fc405cdd36f1ebed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cagliari win on 2025-10-30? | Event: sea-cag-sas-2025-10-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-shp-... | no | 1 | bra-rec-fla-2025-11-15 | Will SC Recife win on 2025-11-15? | 79,106,172 | 79,106,172 |
2708ab922c5d837eff5b06723e8bb9db749e9a3c | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x9eec02338e4ca65b2ce072092b3b1e9c3b455f5985df8ec837046e3a0711731f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-sgr-xin-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-shp-zhe-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the second most valuable company on ... | no | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will Albania win on 2025-11-16? | 79,113,745 | 79,113,745 |
07537a2da10784195b3059fe1bdd7beac070c65c | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x398bf72051f55d32922e90a14fa809395477c538ea667840bf8f96262c70a43f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2025-10-31? | Event: chi-shp-zhe-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-731 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii... | no | 1 | uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-17? | 79,175,929 | 79,175,929 |
7ec219d802b333094f4ba25111484d78b2725d55 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xaecea1d6995f18fe252614fe1c02e401ea0199286e57a0b83d4e0cbec9ad2a0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? | Event: 2nd-largest-company-end-of-october-731 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-31? | Event: rus-csk-nov-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSV win ... | no | 1 | fif-bah1-som-2025-11-17 | Will Bahrain win on 2025-11-17? | 79,175,929 | 79,175,929 |
02726623528f9a151bbc74211985ea838245b9b0 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xd81a5549f60fa3589ccdf9a4aa8d3c01e73b28bc86fc404531562f53105ad05d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-31? | Event: rus-csk-nov-2025-10-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-10-31? | Event: ere-psv-sit-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: aus-n... | no | 1 | fif-cha-moz-2025-11-17 | Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17? | 79,175,929 | 79,175,929 |
082bb2e0695baaf8e23c41d10fbab9942f89cdf3 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xb9c84b4e6360657c1f854274f96a2e8beee66be05bbb9f3edd7d6783d62445e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSV win on 2025-10-31? | Event: ere-psv-sit-2025-10-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: aus-new-syd-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: kor-san-poh... | no | 1 | fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Will Bolivia win on 2025-11-18? | 79,188,897 | 79,188,897 |
5fb51e057ac06674b6cace5dca8aa8a1af5b295f | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xf5c7ccdae83cc78e5a264374b0aead279317c95a1883f8e27912125073314d40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: aus-new-syd-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: kor-san-poh-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2025-11-01? | Ev... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-14-november-21 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | 79,262,844 | 79,262,844 |
f5fb961fac712752667f83686a23d6830708e8be | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x6d46f95793541d4fb4ca377ed3c4639845e1be390e327c6e4407919d16395ad3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: kor-san-poh-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: chi-sha-jin-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-a... | no | 1 | spl-ahl-qad-2025-11-21 | Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club end in a draw? | 79,330,217 | 79,330,217 |
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