sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d482949ff66f61866b99e19acb5d35b53eb35816 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xa9edf2b32064b48a05adb4cf16bb78a3f78214f8cb59fd9e66f8ed6f6a6889f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: chi-sha-jin-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-0... | no | 1 | den-sif-agf-2025-11-21 | Will Silkeborg IF win on 2025-11-21? | 79,331,400 | 79,331,400 |
e2d966531445374f6fdb151de91f83ce9abcf78e | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xc78682f439dcdf91bfb92632bb0249a1c52abfe1aa012a44a54e74621319e880 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Cho... | no | 1 | nor-kfu-bog-2025-11-21 | Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2025-11-21? | 79,331,400 | 79,331,400 |
d6fd74281c098dc26f6e610637990fa26f76c838 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xc7a763c52024fe48c90c4e746d6c72c4de545045c9c8df4219679b7ec1cc54ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-11-01? | Event: epl-ful-wol-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-lil-ang-2025-11-02 | Cho... | no | 1 | nor-kfu-bog-2025-11-21 | Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? | 79,331,400 | 79,331,400 |
785fc722e6d2bfb70feca333ea97e96c99da037f | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x0b5f39db46895cce033abbe9cc353a29c68c870ff9d75577ea3770cf00e88fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-01? | Event: bun-lei-stu-2025-11-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-lil-ang-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles To... | yes | 1 | rus-ore-bal-2025-11-22 | Will FK Orenburg vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad end in a draw? | 79,361,987 | 79,361,987 |
89c965a556a0e49c131f06309b4dcb0846c7f33b | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x55d3cbdf47295dfdc265faaf4999a5ef26c3663c55aa4d6d8b1bc191e1b3c373 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-11-02? | Event: fl1-lil-ang-2025-11-02 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Lanús win ... | no | 1 | elc-bri-swa-2025-11-22 | Will Swansea City AFC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,365,612 | 79,365,612 |
ac8095bcc2ebafd6f3dcc061e32bfbca41c2b9fa | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x6641d50514493c1161bfaed7ea2f505214d51ebcec1fda81e42b3a2e6fcdd391 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament | Event: atp-paris-masters-singles-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03? | Event: arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Slavia Praha... | no | 1 | lal-ala-cel-2025-11-22 | Will Alaves win on 2025-11-22? | 79,365,612 | 79,365,612 |
28a86689ad4b86fa8201110c2bd76b27fb227dc3 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x7cf0f34759e339e454ede0f2232bf93b792d259f95d2de17f0b6061c9ca0c3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03? | Event: arg-ban-lan-2025-11-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-ben-lev-... | no | 1 | epl-bur-che-2025-11-22 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,365,612 | 79,365,612 |
297b33fb08c735c9fff9cd8763af6c6616dd70c6 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xf5207508633fb8e2ef8c4f18ac22e6037cb8f29e2a7bb75ed307bf1d2300ead2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-ben-lev-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai... | no | 1 | elc-cov-wba-2025-11-22 | Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,365,612 | 79,365,612 |
cfd87df9f11e600ed77773065bbdafdd511e76aa | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x13920ebc9c25f07fc06d6c69e8b2acba060baadc8ee1677a89afdf2f26ff6851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-ben-lev-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-07? | Event: bun-wer-wol-2... | no | 1 | nor-tro-rbk-2025-11-22 | Will Rosenborg BK win on 2025-11-22? | 79,367,068 | 79,367,068 |
1e460d70bd9f16932e7bd120bf690a3ed90d208a | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x493ab0d47e5a99e72dbc8cc78147a25106d37163cfaee86606a25d23ef3a92bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-07? | Event: bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Ch... | no | 1 | lal-osa-rso-2025-11-22 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? | 79,373,939 | 79,373,939 |
c6c47525c16987be0352c350265d4f4f3fbbf932 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0x53bb8ea93e85d70b8185029f2f315c41aeae70c1b0611276ee97e85b1415b4fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-07? | Event: bun-wer-wol-2025-11-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Ch... | no | 1 | bun-koe-ein-2025-11-22 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-22? | 79,373,939 | 79,373,939 |
73876cee75d9dbf86db2edce74215e7f73fd4658 | 0x091eff205c9852cce82b530c6c2c31e530c684bc | 0xf965c868e0007f001f7222a0215655cda79ec356f621ad2e9093ff80bf53b7c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-09? | Event: ere-utr-aja-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-09? | Event: bra-fla-san-2025-11-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | E... | no | 1 | lal-osa-rso-2025-11-22 | Will Osasuna vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? | 79,373,939 | 79,373,939 |
1f5a6fe76934c4741f4034d021f147a4a32f28e8 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x055f0838ccbaafce2a0d694d20ffb815cb0b5bb85667fee55cce958a7fe89c5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
fb445ba886c58d378f71e3d0aa0ba837ffbacd64 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x1674811cafd247b0884098f871117ee6a0d73ce4a39985c4968459c902041b44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend?
Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office
Predict the user's choice and confidence for ... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
3c22a58e2e08ee990403cee2c202c8b69e5021d4 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x2b249d906ea21e96c92ff64230190da86e3fa0830b517ac58471b4e0f5a2c7c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question:... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
8e354f7a8160cf56be89bfdccacebbf3bb9f17b3 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x381b7b45c22f94e13fac89bf754bf3611414d5f2e739eab374072125e1a716ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
e8d5b97647ad9c61328deab6243c23e5ac7158ee | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x67e68c5eee8ac767dd1177de8c653b20642fee48f0f2a56d784e4856b130749d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
470b98c3cb4268543a6435d3b2330f75071dea7d | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x729a3298ae0559a4eebd1320216c8c9b8d51381ce5ce690da7e8df1f951a923a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
ec1b8e6985895d6e025b9972bd6ecbc87a80d8fc | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x95effab3f01f856708b93dd1e9cc92c8774eba9e387c49128007d6a19f6b035c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
9a345eea60938e51d295383b1a2f43227127dc27 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xcbbff50d5b91df1c098990afb653c799660e7bb2a818501b00f03bdfadb351c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
39db8c295a8078d1cfdca2c8f0606b85db339408 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xe9adc4dc5fe6a7c2f952918809b10c56076272ff0fd030d0b347cbfc4f2dd27e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
59c8c2ff544f21beef9eba6888a319811cab0c89 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xf56b00519c0841f123302402a247d0241acd93a22e1a1cc8a7a557abe6e34dc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,873 | 66,184,873 |
e76cc79dfb59166db6c85d12ab2d8411d293217c | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x1ba85a54b6ff5db0d5f345bb07c2466850e476a8a735a6b82d407222a19b8a07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
8b32d78dbb91b00ca268e777e4443801467d5a53 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x2ae8f1bb3cb5f75296999eccf7d7e2e351641128a2c571f4be96f24bc33c5038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
192e6c8427899244b34a605f007d74bb4825ef82 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x3e388cdb2df676ec02935cf75a535d764cb8dc7cd997dab18b3779df02a263de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
9b9788d51fcddeb81e8980d005796fc545da8d35 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x3e3d61f477848499d6f5d61b3573cabe2ad8547c5957454e4052f8266003fb9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
e717daa913146e80f82f86a188a9636f68d10519 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x436cdf35f5cbe92a02a1d544061fc7686d08e946ab237520bfb8679151565f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
ed9c9df2391df37c3c9c9a0e9b45891520fdcb0b | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x5d28003556995083ad8f5a09eb6461e8b41c0f6af8d1c2269374e2cc83d8bb80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
c0e248f20cbfe64c8b4d9ed9e631be5b2e2b155a | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x7d65c2360ae87c27b252cfb41356914e80187659be5685fb65da8e17ccfd215d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
c3005967bb6799f4efb7060dfd6771a9c64e01b2 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xe14a4418679b88bab097a05f2e7d598d9cec0b11824464aef949ca3c9c90440c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
3d9db2de8b7a5b29e38c50cac7a08e9dde21ed6e | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xe18a5a9d08e3f89798244959c20d198d13ab5d8230ee48c1b8201f73ae969ffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,874 | 66,184,874 |
cf950420511e18e937a25f6e157ae61c3b4efdad | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x5edfb7499c1b5f6a5a7b0588270592a4474c1a0416894ad618dccbbbb3187a39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,875 | 66,184,875 |
5c85911603b4871a1d91b5b1595494e43a3db92c | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x643a489de21c4c07d50065a90cb44f3b3e746a54660b940eaf21a1d9e4dc4a87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,875 | 66,184,875 |
34ce41c2b6d833e38818264246e1747a03062f9e | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x67500eddcbf5fe7d5e5ec16b67c212eb58e462845a0bb10bf4401c48088bbd07 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,875 | 66,184,875 |
0e49bea705af3942a42337994aaa2d10c115e36c | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x8dea7119588d217a183b0d31bb5d3acc220986a1bb95976b2d02858d8b37eb35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,875 | 66,184,875 |
5cb57f0168fc6ca5c32313fa67f7a4bd50f84d81 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xcebed92d00e70d9283100b73927b74ea46a4a0161959e104e80fb0acbec3876c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | no | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,184,875 | 66,184,875 |
310d13343a2287c35bde32ab444766e255b015b7 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xdc7d3eba0d5c91f58cc90626065c95243fc2d9b47ce9dfe1ab4341e230b6dc84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27? | 66,184,875 | 66,184,875 |
5ead40b47e77f79a8b9a58a2815d2dffaef58b2f | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x0ba973b06865c78d6423a91f6971bff776b80f1b9b76b6f0dbdeca3f212d68a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? | 66,184,876 | 66,184,876 |
fb8be2a86a3fd46c5a7089d10fb142f6950180f1 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xd3aa69a5c84bb794c59b2caf0d2e9e2208cc06a6e8d59c827a987925b6f72ed7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | no | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? | 66,184,876 | 66,184,876 |
5893245c154793e34156c4aac85dfb8d76c12bd5 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xf153eefd52dad93c1675f76c17b3c6b59e67cd5ae2a452a6b9a2d028f5833fc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | 66,184,876 | 66,184,876 |
95192317195af688230b36405244f6518772fb5d | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x60a6042337283bf2a1441be185d25fd46ab26bd29ff17d498125dcf3fd7e1f75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | 66,258,797 | 66,258,797 |
6d3066c040b4d72c77659f53bb2a45e1452964a2 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x0e07d28fc57cf979bb6b09fa7ca9e7530c86fa5ac16bf0171a53d58cfd420e6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
1df925b4dbd3045a8708342501a438a0df7d3013 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x10adf7acb35da349caf13ab8d71a0afa661258f37f12ad3d82592696042f08ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic ... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
5a885775bda2d0d7d09bdd68bdecf964a7e8b221 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x2fc8f8cc40668ba16c45d37f45d0bd8a3601c4d84d9c0d50f83bf3ded5f580bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
56b7570dd478eef0b54f67ab6c716ab319e6a2c4 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x34d650cd671bfe703a0bbb2b2aab0387afb6292a6cdf4a08836245246b4f7b54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the 49ers win Super B... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
49ca1074aa86db4e79abe978423cc6409461839b | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x39ea2c78a19e57d5c1de6e5180c039038a6a1a9c483f10e370f242b3da207b4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-cham... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
53a2a97d2498f80afd799d48c755915426a44dc0 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x441e51dcff7c576a75d9a72d920b1e55e7173bcd9905dc499c5000fb39588b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
126b3033d02832ce5f28e64a7af0c69564a654c3 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x9170008ce066642f6dfe51292fe526bd842bd9ffa121ec9b053de8dfc1444123 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champ... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
37de7c521967fa968ba0fc74f9d2e10cd92e2732 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x9a8987859d0109cbd84d4ab1bdc7041233e7ce8810d52f148b078f9cf6fa73a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-a... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
0f06d372aaaec7e78ef782e871cf3d417ca0a4e9 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xc48215384852516beb6b234237ad5ed9cec0f7ba1836fb2f06791b3d05294073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27? | Even... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
8802f2b378ce4cc72653286a618f10dc2e8bcced | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xd8fd65b176e52ac37807d46aeeaad7aeb68ba086b15a012830e45382810848cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times D... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,097 | 66,607,097 |
dda538e54e2457d010e118cea0a86cf7fc50db39 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x339ea91e747d04777adfb737a264debeddd1b90f527abe02ce2cbee395455169 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
e5e11a02abb2052ea0aeacfabaa89f4ca5917272 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x446e2d8e2ffbe7db85cd2239892df5447e73325b3552d07d5d6901b2eff95a59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
26f4f6159cb292d3784e1c315a30dbdc81739d20 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x5a3a787704c11ae925566b5193f1ad3ea61c2aa8eea6514e14e9152a4feb0f7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another model be the top... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
2d3ac2673c65dd65d3299a2f46b9141c5e74e236 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x64a87c7559aef832f6630af3e501919fb47a5d0107dbb1eb2236f71f910e5bdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross betwe... | no | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
0e1f1ad857da6eb8348f8a2d389d3eb974f31d54 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x8a2af36b760cae72ad72ce391429a3599923ea0c5c91f0f7a0e8e834d0e2a518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
86c57ac76ddb03909c4b7d3c58177fab65c1dbc7 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xa6cee46a6b278b406fc8ec11760cc0c2389060dd318afacccc05231327a81760 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon t... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
4ff8aeed646aa2e2fc1616784fc68336650cce11 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xde00758fcf1165cfce32dc4f85f021e71da12e40c4b9140117c9beddd090776d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
f13dc68d026f20caeec14cc027bf74e7c8f7592e | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xe727b6516b9c7549d61185ab18bf540e5922c131131134f187265d8a3a933c3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27? | Eve... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,607,100 | 66,607,100 |
c23e7bb7bc3bdaffa2e180ad8112bb5985ee9a5a | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x0f812245214ee9e3b8e7c5057df1474a1f427e633e895b8f698da7e1d56be643 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,819,312 | 66,819,312 |
1ac131d1fa49dc12e40292d92a0a0bfa631d48e5 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xa20bb3917e90f70e503d00387741ae8e65470de61e39ad46c09df3eafd599d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 tim... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,819,312 | 66,819,312 |
15ee0e2777f94f62dd6190f585cbd8b343ac0598 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xd2850d5a4e221848fb7fe1b0d09259a516653bf5f59de50ad76520e9a70d56da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 tim... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,819,312 | 66,819,312 |
42d4a65404ccf6c2a298d537f86fcd932d360834 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xeb12fb23c56c8d690c51f6b2501c62fa0dcf25f8af04c0f92c68f94167a1f43b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? | 66,819,312 | 66,819,312 |
b6b778e47a51a81fc8b14f6b087155e62d2ea069 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x0e73cc6c999f4fc1e3692905fc99fe7eb98beb16a284c4be762e3e64c42d1544 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI model... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,300,066 | 67,300,066 |
00dc18dd1ab05516f9d14455663aa7e361537add | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x436c765bcbdca98b4b773fc87be547dd1a3b7155eece9870bcb997e89b184950 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times De... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,300,066 | 67,300,066 |
ff01e3bfffdfbb0c79581ff2b9cca9103f79d40b | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x80b4f6ca982ba1ff550316f725193f5f29761bf65770e37f11fa4b9736f1f7c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,300,066 | 67,300,066 |
46bd26a9abe154196c8ea4bf034fe3fc442bec8a | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xe80491f1675238b1e1bd3705520d1fe2539ecfacb42716f5558b10b6efa95d91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Sonic... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,300,066 | 67,300,066 |
95a980f124b7af9f9741886365e1ed66c21cc2dd | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xeb3cef6b7f43fcd35ce139e89c0b00cbc3a70a556c87ef934f8ca984208aaaa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,300,066 | 67,300,066 |
75c62d7956c56a16c5f31b31a760cec62868d4f7 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xeb52004d81a0458910b98afbab213f85e488d0046a2241ab5e70c7b3aa2dee23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,300,066 | 67,300,066 |
66af558aa303e857821306403763610c47c8ecf0 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x04e07c6085d96ecc1ac7568d6cb640f09e4d300a25afc763b67f15d8f2c8597c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31? | Event: top-ai-model-on-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jack Bergman be... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,448,942 | 67,448,942 |
9ae9b353df3cb73f120f24435441d6ba3c87ff33 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-december-27-january-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,448,942 | 67,448,942 |
88002960d79ea1476dfd22c421dbc688027b6403 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x64123306a517e078fa636231a9cc9339a46bcfe3fadf62c92fdb031881c5d0d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,448,942 | 67,448,942 |
d917e4a59c4ad81dc918202304503f1fd23e92b6 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x7883a3c40bb01cbd3b9ec9e3b73d75af705e300c9369f27178739cf3f4fa089a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-hou... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,448,942 | 67,448,942 |
c397e8651470f00c6d2a44c905b06bbf006298cf | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xf48f79d8e60ab1efa76e53bec8c005611bfdc097cc0e51dc2f612709c04f5acf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-hous... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,448,942 | 67,448,942 |
4c7b295134446c399baf8eade5cd7d8ca129225d | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x399b3e538eae06db62ba0e166cf3772276dabf75862c938119d17d59684c7e40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,802,523 | 67,802,523 |
fcb9a99ccf9c7bee73b52cdb00cec32a1c39aa3c | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xcd14a0b8d67206ebf320c3e7754c5a1db352c4b163a90c2d6c598024e465a2b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Byron Donalds be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,802,523 | 67,802,523 |
b5a48a246ab1cea8cb17d76e7a6b3a3f28ce783a | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x70752303a2d5fafa21bd6df7c7b90d63ab8ec71b56a7cf3fc49a9617633fd87a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Leicester City wins the Premier League? | 67,996,166 | 67,996,166 |
a924c7972968a22f2db93ae7e5bbf054b78675f3 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xde8ca3ccc8e3de8f8325258b4c99f704ae8084b07b00666097223f25351ab1f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? | 67,996,166 | 67,996,166 |
84402717211934184b934d61387ab35f12d38748 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xf4d8f5dcd9f6d7cca429e895387b260e15287f30f4217dcd4485f4009313e5a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet 700-749 times February 7-14? | 67,996,166 | 67,996,166 |
6be931c3a545a1f44d6b125b52ce67bd46ea51db | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x005d2eab3e9c9b0418c45c8e97303668d88630a7287261180dc5edf700f197f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-h... | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? | 68,243,133 | 68,243,133 |
f43d66e0ac98566c719747c005604bb16e315873 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x5eb712298a5f9808ad04286cae74eece84f1fa9fd0a51970317eeb37b244b823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 21-28? | 68,420,315 | 68,420,315 |
0a31e1a3969949e86188fb9c62bb4a24c612d211 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x7a04d6df56abc69278d849cb3fff7995d776b77b29ebaab6823bd7f0569df9af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House... | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? | 68,420,315 | 68,420,315 |
21449d1e4f94bcd99b51de0a23432b839c896fc3 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xa5bfa29f27399fce767abbff2d875bb5ad7a236748fb2818762641c4c1992632 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Everton wins the Premier League? | 68,420,315 | 68,420,315 |
b588bb15f7a89bcd9cc5447bda528d6f49a1fbcc | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xab608570086569af43cff6c998de1de6859af5261d6c3b1003d1ffa3f91a7e8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-ho... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | West Ham United wins the Premier League? | 68,420,315 | 68,420,315 |
cf6075dbc1253ff04da08c330a5b17cff0887d1d | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xc3c4c99a9b9173154a4b121e3a996c685a2a481a7da0aea144eb600886d85560 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-... | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Manchester United wins the Premier League? | 68,420,315 | 68,420,315 |
7183619d2a1b38d8ad39f054cd7cb175a650b0ba | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x5fd3d8604616935f40f6e57ba23f1b57ed8550f2a9df09b2c8be044c4c2489b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-fo... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Brentford wins the Premier League? | 68,992,962 | 68,992,962 |
e0ca59950d80d0ffbf88ac60761445fe9bf112ff | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xdc42f4785d777459645f7d5373c8f6eddbb30b703e1316ac17c527b22694f1b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tom Emmer be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? | 68,992,962 | 68,992,962 |
167cd4519abff50600699acbefe46a408f75398e | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0x4b73d2b80fcc70e12ba15b7c7ebe0c0a05a425d9b0c7707b03d3ae918c0e4d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 69,392,684 | 69,392,684 |
0e03dad09a791a4b716a06f8f079643ee2c8e060 | 0x0929254e4e0e9e93d2aaacd015ea061845356520 | 0xdec94686ac38e6ab576e20b946eeb475580bc82b37e36ad17503666eae587eb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? | 69,392,684 | 69,392,684 |
92d6cdf0a845c08f2bac65b81592ab3ad94fcf33 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x53f6b966701a41c8d98d57d9cc4d79a45de340c0f4d6dc67faeda54e8cc4afeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane?
Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | 66,067,950 | 66,067,950 |
23b1b48c45b161195a1e2c06c72564465ceb8198 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x57858d7b061a48238bf51d254f40279a1244e12ba08cc7c3c30a99f668a7102f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration
Predict the user's choice and con... | yes | 0.001166 | trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | 66,115,217 | 66,115,217 |
849828553e38b4b9bd23c86684de77f00256e732 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xacedef109bc86502ba263a768545470197634b12d7cd0eefddd7f306172b360c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? | 66,172,282 | 66,172,282 |
91bc0a17a7b95987b4c5b8c0f3c975348c205ca4 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x4cfe8afc969fc85f4aa92ef01e8c82b84f773ea1cdf198d694ef9da1155393eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0.7448 | will-putin-meet-with-trump-by-first-100-days | Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | 66,245,812 | 68,265,923 |
2a910310640995d25aad0023ea8580cbfd204c1c | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xc201255ac4fd4ca73d38eb331681dd9c4597fc85ed52a89ef664fa399a2f185a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 1 | bitcoin-above-94000-on-january-3 | Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | 66,282,562 | 66,282,562 |
65ef012c1ae17c574c5ce73b3ee27bb6145120ef | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x2e52a72e036adfba7577a3f04f08b4b49e379a66837760bc567504b8ea88a759 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0 | yoon-arrested-by-january-31 | Yoon arrested by January 31? | 66,658,098 | 66,658,098 |
9b020eb15ac88c19c23bac5838f60a9505f5d2fa | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x689eb479c285abbe526ea31e32f3b300c8f77d7f144e78f3f2d35e200e52c2b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0.002156 | yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2025 | Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? | 66,658,159 | 66,914,157 |
14a8d817cd0c5cc7bae089d63f74020810a8e31b | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xa638577415195ac2ca0e8ab8befd45e3991612be6d2cf64e661abc6350c7900a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0.000932 | yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-before-april | Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? | 66,658,414 | 66,914,104 |
460de03720a3d43dc45559a11c2aa47765a0d068 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xc32e15dcd78c7743cb6909d81a3233e302b48512c701f8e4f234d947227dbd95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 0.249609 | will-biden-issue-a-preemptive-pardon | Will Biden issue a preemptive pardon? | 66,698,089 | 66,739,675 |
f0f2fe3bbf53d2449aa341c171630f0d5d6c189b | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xa5ac4cdcfff44ddfb0d332d33575f766414465786fb7d4350782db40d5e9da11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 0.004292 | trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | 66,714,741 | 66,714,741 |
2f90c215ad6345fb339516c6d954238dca38566e | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x8fbfd38766cc418ffd335752fb2c4214cbd53f7940f3eb859e2272dc7d2a5ade | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0.834851 | israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-january-31 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? | 66,835,949 | 66,835,949 |
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