sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ef3b74fbf5b8c038e1c5258e72259caa8d42ac5f | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x8566865c2f3a559a5b58e045289cd6437ad1d5437fee535b26d18d3b6b950afc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | 66,956,421 | 66,956,421 |
05108cdcefa3832ded073ed932fbafdf402967a8 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x1eef55abca2789b05a017d94e6fd6ce3173d8d3a269ba7170142b87dd8bb834c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 1 | will-trump-save-tiktok-in-first-week | Will Trump save TikTok in first week? | 66,959,665 | 66,959,665 |
56e318910d96c0fff4fc91aba8f42d1998aa6c98 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x4b87cba72865218e48cbe7c0ebf4f878132a2014e4507693aef2a84304562679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | 67,025,936 | 67,025,936 |
f53ed87b67581b319079104d50cef3fc01ceb751 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xb08c905b375ef4063e12ddd69a320ef38db2e7b6e42d06a378b2190a4d0058dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 0.989881 | will-tiktok-be-on-the-app-store-on-friday | Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? | 67,039,023 | 67,039,023 |
d8308f8c71a99820e52129ede071e3e59bd12dd8 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x67d64e67bf5854b30de8535b418b771b9bb909f2cb2df7d54c929ee65ac46094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-3 | Will Trump sign between 1 and 3 executive orders on January 22? | 67,066,098 | 67,066,098 |
989e3d9ec405c36ac1a8b7709ec13ff6dc5b8180 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x3254f16fb7fbf7c8b00ff7507fef145d69aaca832967446fb8090c3f5de0c9f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 1 | will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-day-11 | Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11? | 67,346,262 | 67,346,262 |
293a61dbbc355ecff00425584a95215a57a01b1e | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x90022f8972b01ea54fafc30e38412b2f6bcfe5544f3cfbfbcba0cd1b3fc1b3d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0 | will-deepseek-still-be-1-free-app-on-friday | Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday? | 67,375,859 | 67,375,859 |
e70f91de0ac9e0263e5b430cb1f3174cfe32284e | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x672734ef6dec13a0187e7d811ac9769d9f0c948fd0cec06c0ad15a80a491a678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 1 | tiktok-on-app-store-again-before-february | TikTok on App Store again before February? | 67,400,671 | 67,400,671 |
a9f7319fee55fef72711f5aee40a1c73fc237425 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x849608be4c85e59d1e38216c483d2dbec2ac87675832bc60b3115548aba1ec45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 1 | human-to-human-bird-flu-transmission-before-february | Human to human bird flu transmission before February? | 67,400,671 | 67,400,671 |
3748730061b3e4b5e79ed137af7cb1860fd9d96c | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xfa02778570805dfba88f6868614e4498bbdb41615e25d8e226e002427b33715a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 0.002073 | will-openai-become-a-for-profit-business-before-april-2025 | OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? | 67,477,221 | 67,477,221 |
df6728478acada5e0a33fae40cac7b41890133d8 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x38b3f83975b123fd50d1de3cb58e32bc48bf35a5766d4dded790d8c25f1226e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Will there be 100-150k jobs added in January 2025? | 67,668,563 | 67,668,563 |
356190728e24356d39bd95fc125323345e5ca84c | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xc1d49ff81efa1809ad9d7d107581dcd2d91eab63fb5ddc055015ee3dc48fa650 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Will there be less than 100k jobs added in January 2025? | 67,668,563 | 67,668,563 |
88ea6c836886c176e86f06a53c0df27461205da7 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x1663edea3eba0d1ae8f064276dd426cb0497a19bb5188dae48a2f8fa8ea34da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 0.371199 | ukraine-agrees-to-give-trump-rare-earth-metals-before-april | Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | 68,072,562 | 68,533,092 |
0522f920d8ab672a70862f4e952e9d6d7974a97f | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xaa7a42b6d71e8bd7fec17efadc76afa298ec4ccd8fecc538d63274d84d483c7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 1 | will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-17 | Will Trump issue an executive order on February 17? | 68,093,266 | 68,093,266 |
84bb8f55330a0fe8b83e5d1c7182e6884e914006 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x12da9018becd98b431fb377ae57087ebbe8ad4a1cf82c832fb0aed7c4b6b791d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 0.000053 | will-trump-visit-russia-before-july | Will Trump visit Russia before July? | 68,185,551 | 68,266,274 |
b8d139b505c47c0f09365403a37144b227c2d0b3 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xa503070c5f90c70e460260460637f50ded4d8886e0a3969c76c557d5377b42f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0 | will-putin-visit-the-us-before-july | Will Putin visit the U.S. before July? | 68,224,431 | 68,265,785 |
09e8b1a426e9eb4eb68c96719a77b4a06a967fe7 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x97004cec761044f6eb772191377b3a352d3ec05ec0249a1bf5ca442ba1fac097 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 1 | will-ukraine-agree-to-payback-us-aid-before-july | Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July? | 68,236,821 | 68,281,336 |
ca695d903398fd76e7ce95b5e7e0faabb9b77bf7 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x2820f9e0e7fac7f3cc909bccdd212c6f3de818a6b0e4ca401c24beba941a2249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 0.002903 | will-trump-visit-russia-by-may-9 | Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? | 68,266,099 | 68,266,099 |
ba5e1edb088e721f4da3804cb8d13726a49a3b20 | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0x93ec7298069d02293cf8cf4261e0c6bcee2f83b4a4ff11ffb9abaa8c4261c681 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | no | 0 | will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | 68,267,266 | 68,267,266 |
80690be0b90292c28c7038a8cb939a9e786f7cff | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xa0e3abfe90ee6664e9d3bff58d804b59be167d5554c1ce09b92bf99fcb4d195d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Event: azerbaijan-claims-russia-responsible-for-downing-plane | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.001166107461746... | yes | 1 | will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-24 | Will Trump issue an executive order on February 24? | 68,369,496 | 68,369,496 |
3268a76004cad747bc3c039c6474901b5456443a | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xcaf8ab830bcca035773dbcb56c37329b05cd174294f17384b9b8b5bed8b2dea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? | Event: trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0011661074617462595
2. Question: Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 0 | spacex-starship-flight-test-8 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? | 68,428,662 | 68,428,662 |
300e79dea91c8aa0fd2459bdb705098ef15bff8c | 0x092f5ecfcf1df6356a534b6d23d3dd2557fa18ac | 0xb6ef4ee16da2e6530b1e4000302fb15fc915a1ef898c5677eee563cbf58f8e3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Event: will-putin-meet-with-trump-by-first-100-days | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7447999024037689
3. ... | yes | 1 | will-trump-sanction-russia | Will Trump sanction Russia before March? | 68,528,219 | 68,528,219 |
91c7ccbba6e0a8480d56a4f7957b4461fead1a0d | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x1576c61f293d59b870702c21d7ba8112258a3efd107409c60d4347e3eab28176 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17?
Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.170685 | gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | 56,988,322 | 57,150,651 |
e9d567007c5731add74d7b48417d7070e38a2a5f | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x5498a3c406b898aa4c0eb8b2e5fbc291980593e43e4fb4ec1595a3629b8284f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
Target market:
Question: $GME halted on Wednesday?
Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON:... | no | 0 | gme-halted-on-wednesday | $GME halted on Wednesday? | 56,997,241 | 57,002,063 |
8e2afebac800a9a0e231aa1bca5c97c7531e9d59 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0xb94b3f423602fc4c7914fff5c14f4f0f7ea61f997535d00d8d03f7213b2c6113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30?
Event: aird... | yes | 0.000107 | airdrops-by-june-30 | zkSync airdrop by June 30? | 57,041,557 | 57,041,557 |
3dc427d4698fc7f67db7d61160b16fd61e243ae5 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x0c187b260d8e25faeb8c4741aabf5bf074889b2c2c9c3991ff54c50009a29dc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | no | 0.000001 | airdrops-by-june-30 | Scroll airdrop by June 30? | 57,041,587 | 57,212,381 |
8339d94492397e17e0c2d55dd6b2ddaec95ee06f | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x9e8c2004776c629f373a060a1e4441e26c3cac80364f671d8700cc53d9c07f82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | no | 0 | pumpfun-exploiter-arrested-in-may | Pump.fun exploiter arrested in May? | 57,058,276 | 57,414,800 |
7d071b071d1d4d4fb96b4d0ba2b8246d930c1e28 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x7bcf60b146f4d60ca757c98e0e70ae76bb82377e5e9f3b4513c0382578270252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | no | 0.209995 | gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | GME market cap $8-10b on May 17? | 57,150,627 | 57,150,627 |
919e72fa6d8856a0c6ea3f332521fb4113f8aea8 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0xd561afb7bdb5e9e991fb58a1f9046aad8d3cc3783f1798bdc7a54edd9e4bc9ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | yes | 1 | gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | GME market cap $6-8b on May 17? | 57,150,634 | 57,150,634 |
403690e9d17d1a914fd6d732cbd38167851f8f5c | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x6cf0b1f8d7041d2eaf9b2c107c36f9de48f95f61922f0feafeed15e210965fd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | yes | 1 | gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | GME market cap below $6b on May 17? | 57,150,639 | 57,150,639 |
7c628fc2cc5e24a227dd23f7437e243981df62c0 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0xe384b2246221fa3e4e74e176cafa7d17434f28e603e893f0bda652a9dbbf3d7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | yes | 0.661017 | gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | GME market cap $14-16b on May 17? | 57,150,644 | 57,150,644 |
d090aa75f900748cd49a04c0f259d43cfd0b99bb | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x76e5f6bdbb8b9747ec373b4f9a053443f13ebdf2248f70d8522df82d4240dcd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | yes | 0.185493 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) greater than $40b one day after launch? | 57,207,037 | 57,211,296 |
7d45bf4b9d7f915d2ff5daf032e8643c2d12a61b | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x49840b617c32858f786529168a3bf4424e31935ce415550e4cfd1af3d8c511e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | no | 0.764284 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $35-40b one day after launch? | 57,207,051 | 57,207,051 |
e217cce39f57dc5dee76ef4ae5350a1920d75d67 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x10c085ad9796aa0f7eda5ba053722c8c12357623257f301d01a2414ffee3ba40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | no | 1 | eigenlayer-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $20-25b one day after launch? | 57,207,221 | 57,207,221 |
c2d31585c4085373e6b65da3fce5bd3aaa4d4cf7 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x442328c16a9dc25ddafd42efbe7c40895e1982ff0308257ba5f475b3260e0999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | no | 0.0005 | airdrops-by-june-30 | Taiko airdrop by June 30? | 57,212,316 | 57,212,316 |
cce69eab0c769b3bd1f562bba8016f0595c91632 | 0x0941a6bfcea1b0644aea9637a2cbf0c20b2beaf9 | 0x07534bc8869ae2ea1971cdb06e83229d4c9a28e1c576fcdb398f4d3f8080c3e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: GME market cap greater than $16b on May 17? | Event: gme-market-cap-on-may-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.17068498450749842
2. Question: $GME halted on Wednesday? | Event: gme-halted-on-wednesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: zkSync airdrop by June 30? | Event: airdrops-by-jun... | no | 0.000001 | eu-election-which-party-will-win-the-most-seats | Will the EPP win the most seats in European Parliament? | 57,213,043 | 57,213,043 |
aad4801e54d2b4d6b1e63bb7899637049c38571c | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x3b5e5484fd4ab230a18cd42bdab433e53c1a1bb1106339fc5be35585f5bfb152 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0.000011 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | 79,132,353 | 79,132,353 |
be131fefee6c6857724daaa57d8f3fbc7c53400d | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x34573b54208a979c179ce3e2fdbdb273d3fb84ea7e28026c6fa97fbfab975ea2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence... | down | 0.000012 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | 79,133,844 | 79,133,844 |
156bc91969c9b16ca3206888f2ea226f305e3275 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xf73f920b5dbad747d0517723e83970799cffbf45a45fe4235569c5f162253f0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0.000105 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8AM ET | 79,141,800 | 79,143,017 |
15190ba60a7baa363a265c414446555a60736392 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x40835091e68783791ea3958e0b2fc798bdf0df59d44312419e6f04488f7683ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9AM ET | 79,144,806 | 79,652,039 |
ae2b0e3ac4525af91fb4d010f2cb1bf2fe1d1bed | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x983cbb27789f47bf1f0fb559cc897d8496b1e3c7cd1f2beadb892b91f221609e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | up | 0.000022 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10AM ET | 79,145,091 | 79,145,091 |
fe2236130a974ca717533a02f65bf7203013921d | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x4881c08e8dbf854059baa64d337d71427b4a6b9c7e6865e0d3b3c3798049bdbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | up | 0.000008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11AM ET | 79,146,463 | 79,146,463 |
9df13cfef5e19bdc7f60870c94504822d864c65a | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xa268c18b1a52621ac90dab8c94f25a97bf1316e1784be15f66d2d89c2660615f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET | 79,170,283 | 79,652,038 |
d1e4c33ef3f341b8844cb201995b446765262625 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xcda250de6c52d164739d46fce6f141d479c8bb1a726ceef04c546c3e2d7f615b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | 79,175,352 | 79,652,038 |
0280ee7c09d7c2b973986282b104258f6ef5be26 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x8ab0ee13a39266e4c15a8c5f991212416edc4e8270b091eedc04ad31d27b87a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | 79,175,407 | 79,652,039 |
509677403470ec4be28013f1fae91828b90822ac | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x82e8f478b6471bd836db7074c1d50e0678c82f9eb1cdae4986f8119b7e53df06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10PM ET | 79,176,876 | 79,176,876 |
bbc6d43c34318967dc1f077b0005f3f8851a66cc | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xb35a204c4f44b19e456d9ee761c0e6d38b90ee9b63cc835908481aad2f1a1c62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11PM ET | 79,176,930 | 79,177,040 |
cb4f873d8548a4641ccc1131acce9016996b9cca | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xb5d2673fbe76a1f2c99793c1c8187781cedc35677ef491d86eebcd3ea2761459 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | 79,177,447 | 79,652,039 |
3c37a01998dd1bb3486e3bcf0a4200eb4ef14981 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xaaabf1ae6770338267742e7f2b87b50a8ed97e09eebf0618acd99b1c24bc1b4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | 79,177,617 | 79,652,039 |
4162d8d0a89f5954acea8992100ae16f6d8a92a0 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x369fcadc92bcd3d8f09e89c3091c6c6c03ab47e3a2547a00aeed52927d38cd10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | up | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | 79,179,231 | 79,179,231 |
5e028e52c98e01f04be23c79c92abbdc9366fbff | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xaa9c2fcf1eee0fa87cf34603b39ba9a44db13af6335f51384e20d99e71e67419 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0.000001 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | 79,179,278 | 79,179,278 |
69a252eb651a5e54b513be6bda5174c1acdf5c30 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xfc80fffc879f012fd70ed7507ea1648f9e6ad789e9a1b798cd5b2805f34e1cab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | 79,180,600 | 79,181,104 |
7655a330deb36cd0b43687c1039d07133edc7c28 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xcb094d4fe3337ff160581f1f474da7bb92c49fddf3a8be04f5c49a4b7c449eee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | up | 0.000013 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | 79,181,081 | 79,181,081 |
30cb1468960b2b7c095c6af417a4a3b217034723 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x26fea62a4b80dcfc49e8f4119f79e15ad984a9a2e81da81704210f8bc28fbdaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET | 79,182,123 | 79,182,987 |
6f07ab3ae3d3482a3bee461fe9f8a7276921a8ff | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x7d6ee68583071c7a8cfaee99620b032aff0d00f1227a08e0a40f06722d297982 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | up | 0.000007 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET | 79,182,821 | 79,182,844 |
211524f3004d807ad67262db8f38a2b3c2fa2da1 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xbc237b4c5cafcaff610b5235e77444c3294d6794e94c5171a5a05ab77bd0dcac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | up | 0.000011 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8AM ET | 79,184,725 | 79,184,725 |
8e19f3c932d3f211427ddf28c7ad778ec97860e7 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x5a00229d5f665326e4786fa0915eb47ee07d0458cc6acbd6b8a0a0db2c8bbe74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0.000006 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 8AM ET | 79,184,739 | 79,184,739 |
a2e58288ee38f9992b83f068e9198555db3015f7 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x9799000ce1244ffb0edca18391a61925d6dc4db2d9245dbbe7d714d642ba62f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET | 79,186,449 | 79,652,034 |
a7a20088abe03b65b4f9a4dfa51eefa5a3fec2ab | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x3438b1da60b9901a69834ccd87a21e31e7c36f092114cb0495a719ada555a128 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | up | 0.000014 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET | 79,186,707 | 79,186,707 |
fc697cdbcd8965f52efbbfd949d3fa44fff8b20e | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xcc722f4f4f62b158e29b40c60cf25771f324b05cb6e311d558dd7c2292825f53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 10AM ET | 79,187,956 | 79,816,732 |
a8a423f0134c84a6eb802dc5fb37e7019f6906cf | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x263fe20e03532419127a1d3aefddf0409adcee5dc6e24c43c14dffe9f889d10a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10AM ET | 79,188,166 | 79,816,732 |
dcdf2eceb1804550d057068040657018fc2de39a | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x9d61adf396b91007802c5ce7a1bfc8988bcda529855d9db8b282147ca7bbaa15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 11AM ET | 79,189,839 | 79,652,038 |
e3b909a516a2970315a646b1f4ba5ceff6657261 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x1af8d79861c1d8ce19fba102a419460dec9412ee4028b33c54fc4e209192f723 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11AM ET | 79,189,953 | 79,652,036 |
f9b3f807f24a9d75f84d198152833445b69315e4 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x8d79d490e59fca309333aef148c87fa6edf9e27703ea0101da9462ed462a713a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 12PM ET | 79,191,821 | 79,191,821 |
b748cbef04c98ce0fc195c3cd5af71f27e6e9530 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x4704093c0cdb1cece1c7ed4a18ab588bf09db27e7c998f4fc8daf276b9e05772 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12PM ET | 79,191,866 | 79,191,866 |
ef7d46fc052c3a9ed93e3a1e0206a14d379131d4 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xe7c30758374a201f4c88f7fe7fcb6bc07d46e8332c963f2595f1272070392834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 1PM ET | 79,193,547 | 79,816,732 |
d6c71a7ae75b037fb7bcff71af771f933f39ad85 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xaa16bd8253f3c2a23dc98c395414460ab5a0c35832b5715cc3daf3fa68131f0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.1197515561406797e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 1PM ET | 79,193,695 | 79,652,033 |
d46e0dbd51c351cb82ef0508792c3d3c67dfa24e | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xfd97ade689d75a6f02713534f790faf84613a4fb55c747933537449c08093598 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.2406324649649995e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.000105323591890771
3.... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 2PM ET | 79,195,347 | 79,195,347 |
f6db868e955730b9c85e2d669f1ba6c5f8a3433e | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x627678aeba9233d299dc62c9fe9693cb9e0e84f32be1e52f16f5ac4a5c82bd55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.000105323591890771
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0.000006 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 2PM ET | 79,195,460 | 79,195,460 |
74dc734cafdc6e477716dd8f11fb5e2a1c6c411d | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xcad54cc3272e3680e69b47dde1d2c126324ef8b5820fba7c3a303862a5bb512a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.2088993659989843e-05
3. Question: Bitcoi... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 3PM ET | 79,197,173 | 79,197,173 |
96e6cbac84f9a6636d6c83e73a6f2a270b532ab1 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x5216410777efe926ce2996f74b73ed25eebb4ee726af155ede4aaf56a9a754c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.2088993659989843e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.086612641066347e-06
3... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3PM ET | 79,197,263 | 79,197,263 |
09575194d36bd163fb47ddd610b016f5d4d107b4 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x9514b0830d634ac940cd0d5294b51271265cb83e7718d27f3f72fd84be770f61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 8.086612641066347e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitco... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4PM ET | 79,198,960 | 79,199,002 |
3ea40edf4ce34953f7aea7c803e27f385ad2361f | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x96356bdff941cf2af997d7575cee414806522c546d100c0df98f51b9a0997476 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - N... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4PM ET | 79,199,021 | 79,199,021 |
8b3f283aa16b839bc8121d12f4391d75e411b0bb | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x8c26345d6cd8d7c15b97a72284a7df115990cb0dd25023a036a66a92b8a12520 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5PM ET | 79,200,809 | 79,816,732 |
49444182cedb8c8084b12d72fb18fe4c31c0242d | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xfc700e7ea7c2efdfd9d81e4004027cefb418d67de37464a357e429e54a600072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 5PM ET | 79,200,829 | 79,652,038 |
1c794d517385f9e02a2f0a4eab5a14221a6a1313 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x97fdbdd6347dcf3cae180821865cac664207fe2c4e6a24dd6c357d00a50c1d51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6PM ET | 79,202,689 | 79,202,689 |
b8401d9fec9293f8674aa64317ff5c95c465d14e | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x00539845f4cf86b020e8e67472951b6098c88f4e601be42d84d6b0619c76e42b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-17-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - N... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 6PM ET | 79,202,781 | 79,202,781 |
568cc13d6248f7c167bd76e06a9b5a69bf8f3ded | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xeb3452f0e0d5480d14bc1a98e02b1269ca3e6ace27ac57ab2c9f9a4d122035da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - No... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7PM ET | 79,204,034 | 79,204,034 |
0790b559577a59f45e6389ae34fea8de4b03231e | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0xc9b6e5c59ccbb4b42249542a38f7dbcabe197a2580c94bdbf3518d12e9d51342 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.768239496828506e-06
3. Question: Ethereu... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-7pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 7PM ET | 79,204,051 | 79,204,051 |
f4c2103345f13693fd1f76714060842df0e99f3d | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x6a1dca02e5016aba7a5fca318adc4e85d6706d689e44255ac7edadef2859fbc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.768239496828506e-06
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.885654576510589e-07
3.... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 3AM ET | 79,262,922 | 79,271,150 |
e3c880171d9be58279357c5574fe2d7564666697 | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x0b09d5c1e8f012240fd6d2bbaf23a708f6edee830d7801243bdf71f2a3ac96a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.885654576510589e-07
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ether... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4AM ET | 79,262,936 | 79,266,169 |
37ee7fc3ab9d79ae6619a77aa3563fd296d8b05b | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x788f86831d5c7de48f5f423c0f55bae8ee747f2706d9195914d3fafc591ede83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.2657432935853423e-05
3. Question: Bitcoi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 9AM ET | 79,271,803 | 79,272,527 |
ef27028e2c81fefd4b006bc81e3bb0118ed3f86e | 0x095fe541c04808b5d2d878e7a9a130d72c0e9909 | 0x760f08d44f85831467065434e40dbc55c95d77ebb057a082e208288cf2c2f4be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-november-18-6am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.2657432935853423e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-18-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethere... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-20-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 10AM ET | 79,273,281 | 79,652,110 |
4de9e3261befc607e3cd1d3e62f0787831f76204 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,120,448 | 64,120,448 |
4a5d97c5f59a477bcc8d0af7e15f02e23e3bb4cd | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xb41303fef1fad2465522ed3d9a0d26d7593733e3b567d7888b981056b33865df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?
Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win
Predict the user's choice and conf... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | 64,363,266 | 64,363,266 |
3b1a8cd83774e7990d4d2af03cbd265c5cd2adc0 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x581375f8ccc080c949d7dbbc2af80ddee38c849f86401b38bb00502dd901bf63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year? | 65,434,591 | 65,434,591 |
060b1a5999738829d7b1f3c99718e536ea01d2ca | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x65be1e6759ce4b850c4944d3265853290000c6577d42b8eb0a481e4d440b022a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | game-of-the-year-2024 | Will another game win Game of the Year? | 65,434,591 | 65,434,591 |
18e83841572fc53d64ee9ebca143b2dee431ede4 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x288500c71799fe8e468b24d9f68356d22ddcc9b3470cac309c69edef202b1e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | kraven-the-hunter-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,577,670 | 65,577,670 |
4928c2453a84f4bc90c23ae6a27b82b7e22109e1 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x0ba973b06865c78d6423a91f6971bff776b80f1b9b76b6f0dbdeca3f212d68a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? | 65,851,265 | 65,851,265 |
bd010fdc652ea4a591c0286376bbf7eae9236601 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x613fad43c73b5f2469b971c4c7e6be2050a6a51d619363107ee0673bb1420696 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 50-74 tries? | 66,038,764 | 66,038,764 |
0f861fa26faba43cc53f9bb60231ef8636a057ba | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xc0d35b5eb721300f8cc66152ca0807e973d11fe5b18bf6ebdfe4ade541b013b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 21-49 tries? | 66,038,764 | 66,038,764 |
2932c0dd8cf40d7f242dcbcdfac6118013435ee0 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x83be3a3bcb90828fc62d7ccc483aeb19eb48f82b00a2805f30e5676fb172b868 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 75-99 tries? | 66,068,976 | 66,068,976 |
550c6fb6c2f12f4d97163ec640db966c413d567d | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xcbcf82d0511725c0363ace562977955a8a53dd49af212ab5de93d612bb5a0800 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | steam-awards-labor-of-love | Will 'Stardew Valley' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,122,931 | 66,122,931 |
88ac68fcb37cda7368f96d1a6af38c1c0a06e967 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x10adf7acb35da349caf13ab8d71a0afa661258f37f12ad3d82592696042f08ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | 66,274,574 | 66,274,574 |
2bc6b702caf95f63b9b8f593013007c739fafb76 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x49d173fc7117c7491a918f084c6e9d7e7e110f3caf3aeaa2f5be9edaf3555a21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | 216 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | 66,274,574 | 66,274,574 |
a589e2c2701714df3961b04aa430d35529a50ae0 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x5a1e72141a55f2dce6ad8345d6113965e11d9159085ab512b8be9efa428c4ad5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | 220 or more votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | 66,274,574 | 66,274,574 |
df2f7cdf5dd5d6854ddc8dcc5d1bc87fae53171f | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xbdaf44f7a53e1e1783ed905ae3e3c5b6527e88d9a2900fba58637bd70b0e2ceb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | 218 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | 66,274,574 | 66,274,574 |
e4243c45c2744976aad080cc012cd1797df20d76 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x504e795d361636416cbb9f47f16b8b9b8d2ad5198ccd8d7dff14bb9482eb5563 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,372,497 | 66,372,497 |
b1c4ff3810dfe76b6d76b1f673081fadae05a170 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xa548a32dc6ee00de49f8bcb178e281b977b7314a91eaac0f39feb1e623632578 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,372,497 | 66,372,497 |
1b538c90d9e8c55a4eb2a6f7de25a5944cf584c7 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x476aa256b781b5006306e3fe7caae37db555b1f6e41b2968d8afe76fb19bce29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? | 66,992,582 | 66,992,582 |
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