sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
744e28400e330f2a5959cb522ed3b3c5e0a7498a | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xb173a85dd23c37c63b65985583b210917e39e71f05f528231e06fbe16565832a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? | 66,992,582 | 66,992,582 |
415ba31b90500aead06eabc74058944df7bf03a1 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x0e220d41751ae4d22b02ae479ae4de826435664ccea297c3817bda0f13cf31aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-3 | Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22? | 67,096,220 | 67,096,220 |
f57059012ec3e117e6d6cbd8d464392fbd096594 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x124b9bfca87e921a7d5c2b0f6de2805e3c60491a3832b07cce15ec7d039e7e19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more? | 67,224,185 | 67,224,185 |
f66f662a520270bf38fb7130635cda05bb685d03 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x89f4e3dcb4906ecf8ef0097be111b1857ac758d3595f348bd0181356c39d1c3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0.333333 | which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-rfk-jr | Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services? | 67,300,726 | 67,300,726 |
b270d02982445ed1c2fe70c66f9cab38c232a0ef | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xe8e3ca717d93be1f6fccea2cc168aeea15f2568466f37121d780efe32eae33e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0.27537 | which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed | Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? | 67,306,157 | 67,306,157 |
6072d10755b88cca5be0797d44f568ed7764e916 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xa0b04e38c6b9d5ab972ae89ebf708cce18f8cdf164d8ffcfbdc017ecfb4e4bd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m? | 67,511,619 | 67,511,619 |
404cf0ad1b63fc04ff50cd69fe4d17ef31939fdc | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x79ca7f93550b2cdfc9ee84cebaa44238cca08fffdede9bbbb8d7a345b1efb3a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0 | what-will-david-sacks-say-during-presser-today | Will David Sacks say "Bitcoin" during his February 4 presser? | 67,539,856 | 67,545,234 |
b4e4e0eec56a0acd82fb25895a555dbcf6def0cd | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x4d9f6935dcf70c4b27cd8f00ba6348191591bb9a2c842746fbb9b77dd63d57d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | 67,566,787 | 67,566,787 |
ab6f7415276347d5e23013c1fb88fe1423d97138 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x5c41f5eb4c832ef8478eeeabd002ca8eb08c69c8290b8024ecb04a04b6ff016e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0.000006 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-11-17 | Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? | 67,996,064 | 67,996,064 |
7cbc64a23fbc6b8ea826b6a2c22b2645a6be4413 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xba3a2460fbc3809266aa49bebace03276e787dbe232a49a0e47c7b02eb209320 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | will-microstrategy-hold-500k-btc-before-march | Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | 68,300,713 | 68,514,234 |
c8156912582d5af7d2c81f94f09a586f5cfba312 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x87d9d0470879bb3b1ccb05e1ce06fc8f760c24a3dcb0dd677d42c4e95bbcd866 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 0.826038 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-february | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? | 68,363,134 | 68,363,134 |
51de8e629ac9aa0b42b86d4af703149064020d13 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x93ec7298069d02293cf8cf4261e0c6bcee2f83b4a4ff11ffb9abaa8c4261c681 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | 68,446,863 | 68,514,234 |
9cb6fec646904771921e4bf9346b18eb8ba54ad8 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x36d3d27ae436675717e15db89559a2a1a875caa4fe8134ed92b2885721ac03df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | $80k | 0 | will-bitcoin-hit-80k-or-90k-first | Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first? | 68,454,018 | 68,460,282 |
b3b72316fde724844eb34de9a14b9d8a35bca49e | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xc4ccf5b4e94d9be31598aef97fd85dc0f0d9d18f6415256bf3504029c3e7c054 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0.000004 | bitcoin-above-84000-on-march-7 | Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? | 68,640,809 | 68,640,809 |
7c48d2d023b5297d2d8b2e9c92b31108eaa2e54d | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x07aa588746d3906539d4240fb33a05fd06898139538f8348bc473ec723bdb812 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another game ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | 69,363,955 | 69,363,955 |
f9b3432ca678f862625fea4d99259b6b7d9a5664 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x7a2ff40a73301f515789c6bd32c0df14d7dd81cd705e878307fc6f8218da2d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another game win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on... | no | 0.571426 | lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? | 71,827,344 | 71,827,344 |
8033c14a07096266c68ce1e13ce87c48529b9a2d | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x05ef686c034a98884a9c9c514d7f35389d87a04f946b3a06a1eca33ace202053 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another game win Game of the Year? | Event: game-of-the-year-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: kraven-the-hunter-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'S... | yes | 1 | crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Will 'Solo Leveling' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | 71,954,432 | 71,954,432 |
6abb4a9e42e02e5229667c223089ef6411e45db8 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x090f589bfc7ea24f00bfba252239da59eb6509cb66e94cdead0350e4a958ebc0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross less than $16m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: kraven-the-hunter-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Will 'NINJA KAMUI' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | 71,954,432 | 71,954,432 |
c5716742348e4916e6a0698fabf2ebb6d297ac5c | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x21e18aa7b9bee1302fabf77bd6959df7b505188c4670393ba61d78df5411fd6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend? | Event: sonic-3-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 50-74 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | crunchyroll-best-isekai | Will ‘Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | 71,954,432 | 71,954,432 |
9eab1314c6844165481d42ad9aaee8880ae3a157 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x29b7e5f15540adc4923bf93346a7717dcfc0a54e12e57e4e787fae002df177d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 50-74 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 21-49 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | crunchyroll-best-supporting-character | Will 'Fern' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 2025? | 71,954,432 | 71,954,432 |
fb9c7ffb7533b2a0e2a642a64f60169778050ed9 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xec6ce5238cdb19bc252807318d6ee55ee169daf95cad64bf96a1e9c57c115c70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 21-49 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 75-99 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | karate-kid-legends-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend? | 72,292,736 | 72,292,736 |
ac4290eac9858d7bcbe23392040da0d69eec0b44 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x1eaa7dbf6db63fb0771a93ac95920a0a5facd65734e8a5c269c276d2dc14cbda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 75-99 tries? | Event: attempts-kai-and-speed-need-to-beat-fortnite | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Stardew Valley' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-labor-of-love | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | 72,636,787 | 72,636,787 |
e2a443c5727eb6f0965a498adce93319727023d9 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xff25d9e6e5a6259b699a4aec59350d6300de39dad0db708adc4ae9cc880c1d32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Stardew Valley' win Labor of Love in the 2024 Steam Awards? | Event: steam-awards-labor-of-love | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choic... | no | 0 | will-metaplanet-hold-10k-btc-before-july | Will Metaplanet hold 10k+ BTC before July? | 72,757,404 | 72,757,404 |
19981fe7ff6e5f4324f213174ef701641bf5c07f | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x2b42f4c921308714c2c014158bb7de32780bd9ea39218726b8993e33d23f263c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? | Event: speaker-of-the-house-for-the-119th-congress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 216 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-f... | no | 0 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-june-17-23 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23? | 72,859,257 | 72,859,257 |
fea613402269576875eb1a275bcc1f5eab01e4ce | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xb2f2bdc4427cfe0b7ae878355610478ad2384e387705e42cf8c8f596193488c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 216 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 220 or more votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot ... | no | 0 | us-military-action-against-iran-by-friday | US military action against Iran by Friday? | 72,943,382 | 72,943,404 |
2c0844d05ed0d19edeeb463faf5d2406cfd69c11 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xa2a8100778036aa3b7c6966359d440bd392465346e394c15ec7e04979212fce4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 220 or more votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 218 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot ... | yes | 1 | will-microstrategy-hold-600k-btc-before-july | Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? | 73,134,922 | 73,134,922 |
09dd57223be0b2b7fa96504385a6dc1161732270 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x45def7018ad7484b4b713a81f982ae048ead5ff6989d9ef98f482329b6cb41d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 218 votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot? | Event: how-many-votes-will-mike-johnson-get-on-first-ballot | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-june-24-30 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 24-30? | 73,138,674 | 73,138,674 |
5ab635b391dcd3dd781c247988bad3b506a9a717 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x3b2f19935f2a969634a7aca52b69cf653d957ec6243bdfcb97dd830003e90624 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.000012 | israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july | Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | 73,142,775 | 73,142,775 |
55c790382ed3d61a38cf1bad159882ffa4c887a0 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xd2055601def8961bea2e6fc911538c64ee181e7ae944f67c78f395e39df43580 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 0 | israel-strike-on-iran-on | Israel strike on Iran on June 24? | 73,146,735 | 73,146,735 |
0ace855d042e50151e3630b5a52ac9d58499e800 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xfe4ddfdf4e6b6188967331f5932c8ec6dcbc815572ef9f3566b5d903a708b61f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 0.980391 | fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july | Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | 73,204,151 | 73,204,151 |
4e8ed0e37c8f155cfaa139b5a62b137d5d270bd0 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x0c8ad9a71972fd2983a76a4243f3719e4b5bb0d82cc92eb01c7ee6617fb2c970 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? | Event: how-many-people-will-watch-trump-inauguration | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 0.143533 | will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-july-1-7 | Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? | 73,484,831 | 73,727,201 |
c8762ad29bd8a5489d912b8b8db99d27994011f9 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x57eaf79f12f67db3ac71a18f686ce1151db7da6aa3f4f34026fbc18fd38a5cea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more? | Event: flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-21-27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $115K July 21–27? | 74,318,205 | 74,318,218 |
fbc6875e8f4c6ac44a70dae6fbac221ea7a779e0 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x79f3b6352ef710b9c371ac7baaca08e03841e0a55a54bcde7bbe07bd0b91505d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more? | Event: flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services? | Event: which-senators-will-vote-to-co... | no | 0 | kristin-cabot-out-as-astronomer-cpo-in-july | Kristin Cabot out as Astronomer CPO in July? | 74,365,880 | 74,441,051 |
647cfab384e0f680b9e439ec6d4a5e5448ad6afb | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x3e0bc36a0009ab23bca757eabf17709046146c3cc2110aaf837a5e1993ab26f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services? | Event: which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-rfk-jr | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? | Event: which-trump-p... | no | 0.018814 | will-microstrategy-hold-620k-btc-before-august | Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? | 74,570,515 | 74,570,515 |
24d824997f923563802a46130da60a4ea52d38b7 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x4a68d828f7263f34391484404380c34efa9566f12a08a88553ddbe8e285c3ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? | Event: which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2753701427426617
2. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | 74,605,296 | 74,605,296 |
8dcf2b10bce509d3f0a783ac94ed67b3f7e55996 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x1debf0ac763b61259402b419a59a791a02b29081a1e6287af966752a3e911ac4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Companion" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-14m? | Event: companion-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will David Sacks say "Bitcoin" during his February 4 presser? | Event: what-will-david-sacks-say-during-presser-today | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | fantastic-four-the-first-steps-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m? | 75,448,191 | 75,448,191 |
2f40e1bfe1d99d1073447ec995940509bbc7a813 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x78a786481cd44a7d153f762d071eba841d199097f2ec0771ba5032d3935448f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will David Sacks say "Bitcoin" during his February 4 presser? | Event: what-will-david-sacks-say-during-presser-today | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-annual-462 | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in July? | 75,448,191 | 75,448,191 |
e7a5a5d12b98ef98073d38251bf8da6b2f801d55 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xe4ccb0393e7b8f07c822b143f572819035caa0b9404191a2bef15d436a9f2adf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? | Event: of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-11-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.66596789... | yes | 1 | july-inflation-annual-462 | Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? | 75,448,191 | 75,448,191 |
7bccf3b37f93a3131a1f4673d1d147a9363a5020 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xcccb7e7613a087c132b69cbf3a02bece3fdcb824c1da54ae79acc8d4a562d902 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-feb-11-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.665967896625898e-06
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-500k-btc-before-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 0.190115 | gta-vi-released-before-june-2026 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | 75,562,171 | 77,468,195 |
67600b6f37a27dd4245af11abcb8fcc109d3b334 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x9d309397ac041ab49115413f4a3fa42345109c82fb0607590a21f8279ec22179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-500k-btc-before-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8260375016565149... | yes | 0.000008 | hyperliquid-hype-hits-100-this-year | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | 76,086,548 | 76,086,548 |
cf6829d080c09ffefb4de421e07db91e1ffdde61 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? | Event: what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8260375016565149
2. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Event: will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will B... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,575,248 | 76,575,248 |
050fce90c904710ba68b9878987d415fa398c82f | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Event: will-kanye-launch-a-coin-in-february | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-80k-or-90k-first | Choice: $80k | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? | Eve... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,575,248 | 76,575,248 |
24ff22307f476172e7533caab55a034f5b43b7cb | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x93ae0bd274982c8c08581bc3ef1fa143e1294a6326d2a2eec345515a2cb15620 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first? | Event: will-bitcoin-hit-80k-or-90k-first | Choice: $80k | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-84000-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.379980815684027e-06
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be be... | yes | 1 | august-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August? | 76,655,450 | 76,655,450 |
26744e590a84430b7c415c289267bbb965554287 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xa47d5522a14e98422b06053bc153cbb731321e286c12a5a8f75036f6c302e167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-84000-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.379980815684027e-06
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Lilo ... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | 76,655,452 | 76,655,452 |
c9bbacf858520ce132586663915c1712b515dce3 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xf2b8ef9a91b83147461d7ffd387677a64700d16391fc8440404aa10d0ba4221a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5714264895... | yes | 1 | august-unemployment-rate | Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%? | 76,655,452 | 76,655,452 |
8f91e26d2ab4f541b83b8438b90729061fa6bd23 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x0603e884100b6cbe4f8cd03c736e6f4b21cba054d96822fd3de7c7d2733179b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend? | Event: lilo-stitch-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5714264895129624
2. Question: Will 'Solo Leveling' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-september-22-28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 22-28? | 76,924,627 | 76,924,627 |
7c23408d741a522d2440e07356a1375a76ce07e2 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x09b3e4c716df2579afa0ede1bf00edd84f8cbe1e335785f90336e7a909c52f8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Solo Leveling' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-anime-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'NINJA KAMUI' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 0.000005 | us-government-shutdown-by-october-1 | US government shutdown by October 1? | 77,107,836 | 77,107,836 |
25d4e52fca22bc3a601e597b128ec43c32318dd6 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x5ea2680450c889262c3c3feb0be66e347ea74e4c4b2a8aee3e3887b6b07d551e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'NINJA KAMUI' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-original-anime | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will ‘Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-iseka... | no | 0 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-september-29-october-5 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5? | 77,146,750 | 77,278,266 |
08ad169553fcec13af2db5783acd8f23ea19a8b7 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will ‘Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3’ win Crunchyroll's Best Isekai Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-isekai | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Fern' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-supporting-cha... | yes | 1 | what-will-happen-before-gta-vi | Trump out as President before GTA VI? | 77,290,415 | 77,290,415 |
259925ddd3109a15bc6520b2f03ab8cf1ceb1395 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x293fb49f43b12631ec4ad0617d9c0efc0eacce33416ef16f68521427daca1678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Fern' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 2025? | Event: crunchyroll-best-supporting-character | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend? | Event: karate-kid-legends-opening-weekend-box... | no | 0.000002 | will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2025 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | 77,714,098 | 77,714,098 |
c0fb180c8f5d02ca429a90c1286cc8f120b4d23d | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0xa76a7ecac374e7e37f9dd7eacda947793f23d2886ffe0dc28fcc081a7f61423c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend? | Event: karate-kid-legends-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-de... | yes | 0 | btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | 77,907,272 | 77,907,272 |
c1cbbb8e5885f6d1746bda5296da64073a6ab214 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x27fa002bf1e91268fa0b4232b3d35892f15f7b6c26af17749a10ec3a8c218b53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Event: new-jersey-governor-democratic-primary-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Metaplanet hold 10k+ BTC before July? | Event: will-metaplanet-hold-10k-btc-before-july | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | bolivia-presidential-election | Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | 77,917,124 | 77,917,124 |
fcbda5526516bbe50a1b3951078f706bdd5602ae | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x6ec84de51395a6a285e2b5827aeb8739ea90343e52dd9fbc62583e4c02331fb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Metaplanet hold 10k+ BTC before July? | Event: will-metaplanet-hold-10k-btc-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-june-17-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: US milit... | yes | 0.002381 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-october-20-26 | Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26? | 78,069,668 | 78,069,668 |
c65f8549741af838f3e2c9515243983c5710984f | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x649a15159045769741494fe1fd86422c455dbfd98d503c6bc7b73f18ecc046a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23? | Event: will-microstrategy-purchase-bitcoin-june-17-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US military action against Iran by Friday? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Mi... | yes | 0.000003 | bitcoin-above-on-october-24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 24? | 78,106,993 | 78,106,993 |
bacccdf6df6361df6a0f5c25dce9d8cbc49329e3 | 0x09705c0b0a5a7359f5c94688687fc73447e65ae4 | 0x4b911a4baca595a931ca3a613a095ac75a6bc59b45c0053217ccd452780f48a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US military action against Iran by Friday? | Event: us-military-action-against-iran-by-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? | Event: will-microstrategy-hold-600k-btc-before-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Micr... | yes | 0.000003 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-october-20-26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26? | 78,157,172 | 78,207,506 |
17a9f33565706457b07ef67fefe88e8e8a121bd4 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x22365542802d2cd69be3de67a9a647b3ad313a7e9cbcf8d748f7aa8fdb3fd33c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Event: largest-company-end-of-march
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-march | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | 69,768,361 | 69,768,361 |
a5aaefe22a389c3c54e3ea994c7bc04c46793587 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5e27fe0f4593da2eeff2c8c0601909c33dcc8882c71f2c992a4e153ef0781572 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?
Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march
Predict the user's choice ... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | 69,768,361 | 69,768,361 |
2b21fd3be422629b376dab30031419929f2cf483 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xfa48a99317daef1654d5b03e30557c4222f276657275628d9475e141c64b545d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target... | yes | 0.463892 | us-recession-in-2025 | US recession in 2025? | 69,929,189 | 70,255,862 |
39715643e1cdd69107c1456d3efec91810ab0ac8 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9332eb8a9881a979bc99b6c3d8ee24e8d5b2ec016ef536a580aff383948aca1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,965,906 | 69,965,906 |
7bfcc3f2617a40c6a7075ac07cacc872596c4057 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x696ba4726b7a261960878b703c525857ba5a08ee7e1404aa83bd8faa1e1d8687 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | 77,283,032 | 77,283,032 |
6fb5aa935de8241ac89cd6948f19d950208b5df2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x3c14980495b09987db0d1b241f47c8f791b6591340f94fea066beeef139ec352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | 77,710,670 | 77,710,670 |
8054cce87cf22d5da33ced62176c7c2b513977cd | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | 77,845,007 | 79,583,260 |
90cca94b78181edc26764f804f81a81b59ea81ca | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa1adc098f0fcddbcad3050aecb21dbe4986f04222310bf08ac00b7b2b8dab7ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.453582 | united-states-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,921,864 | 77,922,462 |
71317b06566da492d50b2d50c556cd512de0f252 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x0eb1bd2515653f038ed51e05a473a0dad2e5ec94b7f5cb92384f8bb8728cfe70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.998435 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | 77,921,951 | 77,921,951 |
0ab8e0cf6628fc90e1edb0cff343f2ba0b1ed6dd | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x33a89d5c96534599daa948d3d352858e5d573556e032398f1a33fdb2708d964e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-winner | Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,921,951 | 77,921,951 |
626e41f26d18501608c7b8061bef756798f5b760 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x3de0f2b91f24980da96f4a26a1ad20b67e5ccec35ce13afdba2821c51484e546 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.998741 | united-states-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,921,951 | 77,921,951 |
6760b3f78090c6f738dd8ffe7730fe0a660b5914 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4472973213244c75974e74162c79f4c51878dd027d332796d209ad5529ea227f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.998705 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | 77,921,951 | 77,921,951 |
40e00a5795f6a3df3f75083e05381e228d0265cd | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc085f9b5b4612ee05932eeae5b2934a12369cd3a9f97bd7454abfeee050e82af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.208277 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Getafe vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | 77,921,951 | 77,921,951 |
de5e8107f7edbc8cf56185d6dabe13415e18daa9 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe71c81e0ab4c636d059f4759dca36cd18c65d11b2fad2cab7479e0c855e40f37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | united-states-grand-prix-winner | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | 77,921,951 | 77,921,951 |
09bd625b348dc24cf1883071d794ccfac4796138 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf98c9fb4d5335f95dc78a03ce6362ec21ae49e4a5426dfa8a0120ab4367f287a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | sea-tor-ata-2025-09-21 | Will Torino win on 2025-09-21? | 77,921,951 | 77,921,951 |
398b37d5a270c072e999b109a8dafcc6f84dc86a | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x820eacd60c5c61a4b45c963b9b23883a232e06a2a6106444a7c1dc9864f2b319 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20? | 77,963,679 | 77,963,679 |
cbdba6509e1472e4243b4e91a4063eb0de06a732 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x186ab90fc5ef95c1265ea183d5c214a4eaf7b4a173da22f20d06fbac263cf561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.390009 | sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20? | 77,963,679 | 77,976,614 |
35095c645b9fae3448ba33d9f209329f8b8521de | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x3f5d83005852c283cfed78ae3e452ffb2663711b2e28ce86890fa29cca61a218 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.597882 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? | 77,963,679 | 77,976,614 |
e2cb77b795192aaaa5278ed6a559edf1bc68ea1e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x945d18b0f4064b6a543d2e3b9841f26a912728d1fb1190e4a0395d5e6e3f181d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.308454 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will West Ham vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 77,963,679 | 77,976,614 |
5cec24a02290bff708086ea16a977797720592cb | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xe73cf36bc3b38c743a88a795f5c235660718d6c24dd06afe8476b524184106b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.266559 | sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-20? | 77,963,679 | 77,976,614 |
1ad3548207d5bb13a73e41515fddcc2e27b49ac3 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x5bcc643bfdc14b8c672cbf981c2464dd3e889eb398c7298ccf6eff24c56dcda2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | epl-wes-bre-2025-10-20 | Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20? | 77,963,715 | 77,963,715 |
ede273377bb093eb5e389a8d965c18d4650bf320 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xde9101b551549f9a050a45ac4d6282b6b6d2a0f908efd2d2a81b888b186f5079 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Will US Cremonese vs. Udinese end in a draw? | 77,963,715 | 77,963,715 |
f23ff0829a927c1eda597d3a1183eb2d37c97798 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x127300171a2767a8c17847029930cf5a67874c27e547c9a824669d064988ad7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
ae3117c8b5cf2f572e87d23ebca706f701fa5c17 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x203724b6732e51443876cb7d6f057885ae7d5f492693aa816e0961ea8afd9ed6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
bab48933865b747892691fdaafe4e0277d86dfb6 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x229fa38380f75aa09b81b05b786ce567bb9279d09917e8ed907151fc60284a3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
95d9f6885abd589398b453ee81e7b58605d52521 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x6357420f127da202885b329b0ab345d8e4cad127e8f85f3919cbcc43b5fc1511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ucl-usg-int-2025-10-21 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
1e4f7994b803e52a0b287a6d5723567d93c82477 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xa97e77fd0f8970f1d081d53639167b53a9d26f0cf44d00dd318eb13ae6f486e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
447b4ffe5f140ac3a883f3c2dbb86677ea7de36e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf93842f08c1f54d448e372ce359d0daf011cf352f7694b7bab7e63297539c6c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Will Villarreal CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
7ed43be7af2b3d3035e56c9a7b3fdc31351c6af7 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf95b0cc86e4851be9bb8175d7ce24fb408753af4b7b78a36fd58ccdcc16fb72d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
8c03a8f444d36a1e0c79455df39179159728f1ab | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xffa740e3ea988ac69dcbffd101bd79e3ffaebb84b10442b40a7d42db6ad1220c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | 78,005,893 | 78,005,893 |
5a133d19469d3da87f3a6dcb7b968267b653909c | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xd33ddfb3139b7177247857bff75c757edaf0dc16f427034cae9a720c7542a3c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | no | 0.434462 | ucl-kob-bvb-2025-10-21 | Will FC København vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? | 78,006,592 | 78,007,066 |
d57bb9f38ba8e52cd2a949c77c21eddba070b59e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x9fc7409858de8572111082603e165c85e3a6078009db880a5fe5fb57d6c4c3c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: US recession in 2025? | Event: us-recession-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4638919282649507
3. Question: Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?... | no | 1 | ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,006,608 | 78,006,608 |
e9d75130955df9368ef1261473717246ddf23fb2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xaec25e41ac7ccfbf5f5bae4dd75618bd0c43e929a6dfd738385ed10b42ac1bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US recession in 2025? | Event: us-recession-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4638919282649507
2. Question: Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | ... | no | 1 | ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | 78,006,608 | 78,006,608 |
c037f09b3c437df587b35ca687bdc5f67b372f68 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb684cbc8f857c86b4be18f7668fb479ce3959ea6cda2781bb26ad7156074b210 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Event: 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end O... | yes | 1 | ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? | 78,006,608 | 78,006,608 |
ae9788f8e0a68847111ff560f5c53a4877739bcc | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xc90aba1ccad3257050d44ff67fa3aeddc43dc573d66676dd77ca62706b76f408 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Russia x Ukrain... | no | 0.99731 | ucl-kai-paf-2025-10-21 | Will Qairat FK vs. Páfos FC end in a draw? | 78,006,608 | 78,006,608 |
b24b6f0d3619b1aad7308622874df3dd40ce7c8f | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xf3ac6c8e5dba7a18c546587d855cdf1e20c5a6826f1d34dedbcb4229140702db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event: when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the ... | no | 0.98366 | ucl-psv-nap-2025-10-21 | Will PSV win on 2025-10-21? | 78,006,608 | 78,006,608 |
bfa86d3b105656e62da41b1109d1ac53bc1ed70e | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x43c5601e4597422658836ea69c175a93e18b1b408a2e598a6ab6c97d831046a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Event: russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45358187134502925
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Will turnout be less than 4.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | 78,049,237 | 78,049,237 |
0821294037d50175f581181a6f51bf1dd3fbba57 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xb98af52160e844fa40409c12c1e205be748d71446cd653b7b7b04ec05d6da4e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.45358187134502925
2. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9984350547730829
3. Question: Will Os... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Will turnout be between 5.0 million and 5.4 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | 78,049,237 | 78,049,237 |
d757350a6ad5dd38e406f35119efcb08882b7816 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xbcf202f530ffcb7fc8e51bb31a856aa924f31aa32b78087a3edbffc2dd1bd510 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9984350547730829
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win t... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Will turnout be between 4.6 million and 5.0 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | 78,049,237 | 78,049,237 |
cecf044bc9079e147b6582c9da0b9f0a745690a2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0xfbd4f0f2a99ccea96442a8f0841a75f9a107531662208885e8325b1d1c4dfe66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.998741346758967... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-bolivia-presidential-election-second-round | Will turnout be between 5.8 million and 6.2 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round? | 78,049,237 | 78,049,237 |
4efc9d15ae03547335369b14cae8f96b1518c2f2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x7d6302839a6fb2ee0e1c0b62942b3c2cb83c3e672c002fbbbad8b00932afcdc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9987413467589679
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9987046717486819
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | 1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-october-24 | Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? | 78,125,660 | 78,125,660 |
8f4369301c7b10129bf0ce518b6e15dbc51f92e8 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x295cd0ffba29923f782248b871ce751cda3bb0d6363d9f61e856b09bbb3b466e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9987046717486819
2. Question: Will Getafe vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20827679782903663
3. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 20... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-ireland-presidential-election | Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election? | 78,188,946 | 78,188,946 |
2101c5d7a70da03b29c258c45ffbed7397348a74 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x08619e9eeddeba37391e9f230015153ac1e80be20ba44189ce78da8579ccc749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Getafe vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? | Event: lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.20827679782903663
2. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tori... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-221 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1? | 78,200,948 | 78,200,948 |
1df6cc13b796c17ee2f6884dcb24cd06dda742d2 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x234c745474a30bee05c6809d8703a97f546e03b458de6721d9c88d3f5db0d529 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? | Event: united-states-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-09-21? | Event: sea-tor-ata-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20? | Eve... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-i-saved-1000-animals-from-dying-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's animal charity video get between 18–21 million views on day 1? | 78,201,166 | 78,201,166 |
67bdea8baba967bc64229d4178e89485ff5014a5 | 0x0974d7a915229cb770fb43ac46f360dcf964003d | 0x4bdf0155cbd6d59d298ec0ce3b6d6f70c1a0e542f935e457f8c08075627dc925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Torino win on 2025-09-21? | Event: sea-tor-ata-2025-09-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20? | Event: lal-ala-val-2025-10-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20? | Event: sea-cre-udi-2025-10-20 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | 78,201,166 | 78,201,166 |
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