sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b30db7ca4e98b8ae391459858a33f2cced2a8cbe | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x512f9105fea517dfb145360cbfd8f8e4ee7199bc5d85d43eb57ff11be8a6fc2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-august-8 | Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on August 8? | 74,996,851 | 74,996,851 |
8477fa1ded65c8914d4e1734496e34b24c9ed3ed | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x5fb5774034a2c8a2d25a62e3ed2ffb0e6737a09ca2d49c8d0cbf8e362cecf095 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-august-8 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? | 74,996,851 | 74,996,851 |
d84ae22b995a2fb4a98f0f90caf60f08600fd4ce | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x00e5541395e83ad4f9c433f756c6d4ea6540d05580482f101ead553339dc65e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on August 9? | 75,023,223 | 75,023,223 |
f24f335df47a2ce678cdd8e1dbe07a6c685783cd | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x1bd8800e4f3ec0e9d55334a05927dc2b8a0b41b69129fbd2b44c2adaf4031d30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | ufc-fight-night-dolidze-vs-hernandez-win-method | UFC Fight Night: Will Dolidze win by decision? | 75,023,223 | 75,023,223 |
e6a7aa1b3dc6725b28f12999f22d1feb35c359b2 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x3270e517eacbf3efa95fa0d5d8b5aaca50dbaa0ed1ca00fa91d0406320dafbc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-9-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 9 at 5PM ET? | 75,023,223 | 75,023,223 |
76c0b709442047d849eccaf78543bffe88b76e58 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x559ca0e204ced9e61edfeace80fdff426a32123f3cb8eb0d8fd01a3ade701bc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven?
Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | 67,336,121 | 67,336,121 |
936130f00a8c8100473c5096004cf664f091cce0 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x6833fc8a87fb47bea27387c0e94a8c7007c4b0c514fcc6cff605eae61b8ae768 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco?
Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "co... | no | 1 | ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | 67,336,121 | 67,336,121 |
7c8c5fbae8ddddf81da33e13fedc4442cd38eb2e | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x6c59cf128fce389d86d5c3eab83ef8a87a9840f03c4de3df1ff0eb161e18b2aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid?
Event: ucl-stade-bre... | yes | 1 | ucl-stade-brestois-vs-real-madrid | Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | 67,336,121 | 67,336,121 |
c8da3607df363390ae3570ce69f74f2e8ed6cb1b | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0xc67473899383033954b8e1745b70fd0ad767c847dd8a48623ce7671952e54e44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-paris-saint-germain | Will Stuttgart beat Paris Saint-Germain? | 67,336,121 | 67,336,121 |
300cbbec85120e46ffbf2871016fb02ef7379c27 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x0ad696d49ecb31b857f986b4eae7aaa45d35889ce9a743464f060010405958a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-nice-vs-bodo-glimt | Will the match between Nice and Bodo Glimt end in a draw? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
4ddfcb210a4ef739edb43a10ac3551c690e87be5 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x0ee5496b9f7ed13970c9f0559ba2b0a0e029160f33348154b214101c373c9f1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-lyon-vs-ludogorets | Will the match between Lyon and Ludogorets end in a draw? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
a6e180f810615abc6a5c297afadaffaf1710f1ac | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x26372ae74bdd1e3876ae6b759342912ed83ce7a38ae6376e3c9c99eca3d888e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-athletic-bilbao-vs-viktoria-plzen | Will Viktoria Plzen beat Athletic Bilbao? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
5f9d3bbdcc0251c8dc003dcfc0dc03c7bb94adbf | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x285e02d87d6d484fba3151f040349c962f00d7076c810bc7431b948a363f075f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-olympiacos-vs-fk-qarabag | Will the match between Olympiacos and FK Qarabag end in a draw? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
cb69e296b12b563c020392d0198faf207d5a36aa | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x586da693b47b4ba0c759d195f94b68b3ee3cbd8d358bba18c67a7efc14cc3a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-slavia-praha-vs-malmo-ff | Will Malmo FF beat Slavia Praha? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
2e145d4385e155ad9e54b88b82eb3e7557594b7e | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x83d068fa9d71b20f782decc80efbca83c2f673f1b94aa55b7a61f1899d411ecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-fcsb-vs-manchester-united | Will FCSB beat Manchester United? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
b034ffcca8a49658244b1ba83c21fba007a966c2 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x86d0aad505e265dea2a84857d5f404b33b3f1d2add8e52e4cda744928929eb86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-tottenham-vs-if-elfsborg | Will IF Elfsborg beat Tottenham? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
d646b47c624e7170040a165e4887aefab6b24632 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0xef5eab03fae6f011ecfd8127d82211a8a2bc6fb1c81a03a2b6c2981622aa6eb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
3d0d5cc3cac9d3b69beeb9742938920e06ba0555 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0xf80372c49f1f9afe28df3dd4d4e24279d5994e3e58d3dbbc83f549de87f02095 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-ferencvaros-vs-az-alkmaar | Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ferencvaros? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
a1928f9075e6adb7fef04315ccecf5aa40622cb2 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0xfc45bb0a047fe94b1db99d72d9aa50dd53268af6a52ece7d1c5e88ad02fd6b94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-maccabi-tlv-vs-porto | Will Maccabi TLV beat Porto? | 67,355,305 | 67,355,305 |
ea3b6c3536aee4ea8cb6896e780ea80f483390db | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x090d216d78aca97198fec48f52ef14956248cc268005bf88f5b9a55bcbbe54da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-as-roma-vs-frankfurt | Will Frankfurt beat AS Roma? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
8753d528b7bd534f2f951885f84535aa336be853 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x0d4d462dabd2a3786591ace6b50cbf5c2beab090350a3d7231e52babfc4f1c85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-ajax-vs-galatasaray | Will Galatasaray beat Ajax? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
a9e9879710a7532c15f80766a68c5e0d690a3630 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x5698b09745d80ff14c29ae713560756123d166dafe307150420312dbdf309199 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-anderlecht-vs-hoffenheim | Will Anderlecht beat Hoffenheim? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
2d107289a50781060adbdff232d4805805d19be0 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x5b320ed3b0d90ba511ce02ad14e2bbaaa3f6f09282d5bba236b774c60b54767b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-fenerbahce | Will FC Midtjylland beat Fenerbahce? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
5affc8c8e7824a9866e22e4b6e7a137f202dffb0 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x7fa83b9872bd54ce349d7d1147098d3b86dc643bbd7969922fc54a1bfb7ce204 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-twente-vs-besiktas | Will Besiktas beat Twente? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
68f18db3035e20aa16094509a3f71174ff0b03e5 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0xb4b5834f5ce9595606af5902f365458e9d81f5b35d1260d25e7294d47330d6d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-rangers-vs-union-st-gilloise | Will Union St.-Gilloise beat Rangers? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
275ae69d19facf4a945b24391b93fe3dea49460e | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0xcfcb27302e9b6e08bde3916e18ad331537f67305fcaf758f87e5fe14ec83d7c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-dynamo-kyiv-vs-rfs | Will RFS beat Dynamo Kyiv? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
7af71f1c49d8526563e15626f6d1d46a61c4f4dc | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0xed04af3b15798ae17157811e2db49721d37e5d78f28858e03a4eae30a542cb87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | uel-braga-vs-lazio | Will Lazio beat Braga? | 67,355,307 | 67,355,307 |
b528fc78d67e2d268b68519e562a145ced34c465 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x295170f503bf0fa77277382ccb73401470177f97625facbdfcd24116343b5bac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | grammys-record-of-the-year | Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year? | 67,484,990 | 67,484,990 |
682d190f669ef691554e1208f394c3b06ffeaf96 | 0x0d7a8433f9300bc6ff52bc115cc1aa007ebb54fd | 0x4ee89f9b98bd4ef8032bbf1f066611ef00d786313d5f44ddbf0325dd80c012c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat PSV Eindhoven? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-re... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-new-artist | Will Doechii win Best New Artist? | 67,484,990 | 67,484,990 |
9a59250377a2d870611a67b62c0c1f1b26fe06b3 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x2e9a4324f3e2269b6069daec1473eeb127859c72f9db70b3842d70fcb87c31dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?
Event: romania-parliamentary-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | romania-parliamentary-election | Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | 65,062,189 | 65,062,189 |
457a924924411fe85c7f9eecebc41e35da9e880c | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x1eaf199539629acaedafc165a72d556757babf5f896bd1fce1c9b2247e9f94fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?
Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-electio... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,318,389 | 68,318,389 |
6a696b86f58405169b867e5a8fc39cc022aaf09e | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x4411688b128d9652bbad80a99ad722b63e47b4cabd0982f42510971744587c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,318,389 | 68,318,389 |
341cf8b3bf8cddfa84a3123f23075f186e9e0f15 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x8d762b96d3a92f61823a593e64ec6cd2287f4671a25a1a4824961d5ba8bcf5a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | 69,046,615 | 69,046,615 |
6ca8374b1cf18b4478632efae15c050cd9826ff7 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xab92e169ad06ac4e922afeabea9dfe925d3adfe38c735f80b95281042d1af298 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election-2-brackets | Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election? | 69,046,615 | 69,046,615 |
87c75430bcddfc01cf9d19c33fb85a2098c2a99a | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x2899aa05134d3a493f870653f2fe5e286d0a694b46847b330029c74975904cac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | will-pierre-poilievre-lose-his-seat | Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | 70,898,258 | 70,898,258 |
b156070d50dba702e0108bfc2f208bd18c91b672 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x2682960748b5b1a868fe9726901f21d93465a7b253c30826d346049d0e679973 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-ontario | Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election? | 70,928,520 | 70,928,520 |
a7a37e1014847b392ccff7a0a3c13115f87b53b0 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xc42e0808d0557bc06f2c779d071836ad6686332ecf0dd1aeb8c0bd0e1f6709e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | canada-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory | Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats? | 70,931,221 | 70,931,221 |
fc76b833d007b0deeec17e4f43012f627bc0188e | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x4d648e34ef95148787253a410db6a34d88c5809b090e7b5cd159f91b9a06f925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-prince-edward-island | Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election? | 70,936,216 | 70,936,216 |
cd59067a5c84d21276bd097c81986118e9fd47c1 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xf439167803d09f517464c2af6de878028393d53712e87cb524fc7bd7e34bd66b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | no | 1 | seats-conservatives-win-in-canadian-election | Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election? | 70,936,216 | 70,936,216 |
58c74381908ae662ae8b351c6df7d7ad066dc906 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x244c75b2c6095b2e67699c10d0c6548d757d58a1ffea32ad6882c9a389803bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,939,650 | 70,939,650 |
6445ffdf728e4357a07c53cf1b8f9e5d119dfbf6 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x2375f0b213620282e0439a830953ba0f9663e987b21450efb37135e407b5c0d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-quebec | Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election? | 70,942,440 | 70,942,440 |
9d779dd5dc086b5c0f5c54231581770306c2a084 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x4c48d72bee2347ee0a0802850be8a7f36d318b405fb4bacbba455eb8a68dc6a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | which-party-will-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-next-canadian-election | Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? | 70,969,288 | 70,969,288 |
cfff672a2db1b5c19c7dbb4fd4aa1e628c5b3eea | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x33cdef029a176e750ff08f6c1bd8baaa3b117ccb8563be5dcb29e773338f7dbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | australia-election-seat-of-brisbane | Will Labor win the Seat of Brisbane in the 2025 Australian Election? | 71,090,607 | 71,090,607 |
9218598f26150a2f5558640a5ddb785a1fcf36c3 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xe195a5e49dacd26e4de9ac0179d1130479fe7c75ac0a82c056d5957944d515d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | australia-election-seat-of-bennelong | Will the Liberals win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election? | 71,090,607 | 71,090,607 |
9331427ce53d4285081acc5000dc40978122554b | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x1521f09c2a529216353f0430218f40eb50e80aa82bba30616d9ad6cc6a449976 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | no | 1 | of-seats-labor-win-in-australian-election | Will the Australian Labor Party win between 75 and 79 seats? | 71,101,807 | 71,101,807 |
e86374d8ef6897d1a737c02e632d6ee9bae2c6df | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x3a369bc286924ad5ec7b8a6c906ebd7e79739d8b97fc1bc0ca0f629d71963a94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 0.034126 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | 71,153,620 | 71,153,620 |
408c071e0a7f079a9f9846740e082a7114ed0157 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x321fae27017b422cd8bceec00bf72caa31c7cd2083009c5cae3b5a2dcf00d7d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place | Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election? | 71,157,929 | 71,157,929 |
be329e2773bbf9360b957f48e66e97b794084c85 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x94a5acfd9748a4623acc69f58e67564d00620e25703b139bd8cdcdd0cd97e1fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | 71,157,929 | 71,157,929 |
614b19dd32ef4513c9ef96c0a85a9869af997eb2 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xa742d912601082995f710f59b32044b2a29b49f4245a3d34e989cc7fd974a01d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | 71,157,929 | 71,157,929 |
b0d0990c4d762a25fcdb9fc4d00fa36c6aa084f5 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x9df35cb3bef20c8080a4b50d8f733eac6531598e7638eae98579a9d8af059bc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | of-seats-labor-win-in-australian-election | Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats? | 71,224,514 | 71,224,514 |
4a957ce7773960d4b2710538bd94219084ef6bc1 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x14197a2979391a7bb1e6918582334640f309c22c7718f824c9fa1e149302662f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | 71,290,042 | 71,290,042 |
bf1f08c1ecdaed2a7b8b4a07e87a7781892d511d | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x90dd69cd3383c1a4de4255e2848e367fff87052c1cdb14a575faea068cb8ec06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will another person be the next Pope? | 71,290,042 | 71,290,042 |
ec59cd30c9dd7d4e55398852f53ff53b3a5f976e | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xc8a27e8e1475aedbc0dd008177f10da4867e939840043d14770c91cd7cfc118e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | no | 1 | of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 50 and 54 seats? | 71,337,525 | 71,337,525 |
5dcc22366c56c8e12d874236a4a28c7561fd3514 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x14769e436a150dd79a62122626a45c5b6b872ac904b9eec55f5e970aeaab4784 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | 71,614,839 | 71,614,839 |
41e71a5a6061ad26554acc29ee7e351d7832bf0e | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x19f9be5aafa49f68294e14e03dfb0c4b35e4e5304f41c30140942e2ddf3711ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority? | 71,614,839 | 71,614,839 |
6fe75fbfcaced37f622b02ff3329842557c223e7 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xf759fba6c4fd415128bc840a1bf99708244720d7e613ef4ca02f0e15157b2f14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | no | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,696,911 | 71,696,911 |
38e712410ce0ef3ddbf93de140d1876ea72cb733 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x64e1d8e619fe3be141e7b3c0dfa341268a525ece139c0f41470be23d6434cbec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | 71,710,212 | 71,710,212 |
7d46abdccf094a97e61ed01a50c7b67189a33b73 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x3aeaddfa5c56f561a169d75df4670345bd9f4547c8ebcae6a32adc95831788e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | 71,776,881 | 71,776,881 |
4f94c8777e5ea217787e7782df6ba1a6d82da7ba | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x0b5812b8c3ac02d3b0d13fef6d6c93a03ad7791f3e2d13519599e67aa71f08ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m? | 71,792,952 | 71,792,952 |
2dc06fafe73d9e03b8e3cb3908f64f820573989d | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x264603d73262d18b7f7cea8a616620d59354d341b84f30ac520b4929e487d42d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Event: romania-parliamentary-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice:... | yes | 1 | of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | 71,989,642 | 71,989,642 |
8000228dd6821e80d0824dd67a6f3080ad7299b3 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-el... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | 72,268,011 | 72,268,011 |
c42052443fa56cdd9822d3ccf5722850735f15b4 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x6507f3d3c7fbb7ee64028b1a466e76588c30a3149226227b8f21666094fe34c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%? | 72,268,011 | 72,268,011 |
5dcbe1597a60420768a5fe86c44050b2496120d5 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election-2-brackets | Choice: yes | C... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | 72,268,011 | 72,268,011 |
4a36c4452b52f60b06ffb320b0edea7a8102cb62 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x1e68b29be798c37448e00f83180358d0edb02393f8d6a68d50d1175798865287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election-2-brackets | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | Event: will-pierre-poilievre-lose-his-seat | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? | 72,272,709 | 72,272,709 |
38ddee2bdbab2805fc881df0547142bd7fd0b7ed | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x27ddacbfe7dee8504ef1118f268a5b380a5ae41dc8512e759bfefff2c50a82b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? | Event: will-pierre-poilievre-lose-his-seat | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-ontario | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 0.333333 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | 72,272,709 | 72,272,709 |
cfb93c883083638ae9c63c46c77184508e09a1e8 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x3c721bf2f5848dbdc7cadc5f80f13ceb1f48dccbb6c1569142a2da13b3d659e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-ontario | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats? | Event: canada-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 0.2 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? | 72,272,709 | 72,272,709 |
d1f6c2a469ccc33d2fdecddde8b945afc2329fc2 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x30f262c6a1267418b4804da863df50d5af9a9aaef1e5d972d1e8e191155b987a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal Party win by 1–24 seats? | Event: canada-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-prince-edwar... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%? | 72,300,078 | 72,300,078 |
e4f6c3837bf9843bddde6f31602ff4e90d511aae | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xa51ab719d0c14cfab28cbe61b645cbbb975faf927d2ac527037f91c36aa245a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-prince-edward-island | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Event:... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 66-68%? | 72,300,078 | 72,300,078 |
dcebe66fd621b865cc37b3f9cbcc504778aeb7f2 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xb081b826e9838fb4eaeeaf372c1e6504e3028dcaee9478603c9a0ebd3e315fc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Conservatives win more than 210 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Event: seats-conservatives-win-in-canadian-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-polish-presidential-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%? | 72,300,078 | 72,300,078 |
cd4889bf2380b0ae6acc2e458d18137d0da14c04 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x2a6698afa34ebc176e1a7b31f5fff0ea300ad5032ff0f4b19c96779f910c7f98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-quebec | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | canada-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory | Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | 73,123,838 | 73,123,838 |
4f802914e91ce679402b44492beb1276a01ce77f | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x98da00373106f21a7e68fa294c5d51af835fbdb8dab309da78dfdfd049fb68cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-quebec | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-popular-vote-... | no | 0.73913 | canada-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory | Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | 73,123,838 | 73,123,838 |
1079ddc56847bbf580272cae1edc8b4b3dabab28 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xc3a89dee3b659822e32f8388f615907ecf262466576f18ecff7619f6d4d6914b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? | Event: which-party-will-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-next-canadian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Labor win the Seat of Brisbane in the 2025 Australian Election? | Event: australia-election-sea... | yes | 1 | canada-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory | Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? | 73,123,838 | 73,123,838 |
7aa3559fd6610989ef6972450759c101fd428c68 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x3717de3fe4690c2fa53bb581cf137c3fe1695c97c613db984fdd282d9f392673 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Labor win the Seat of Brisbane in the 2025 Australian Election? | Event: australia-election-seat-of-brisbane | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberals win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election? | Event: australia-election-seat-of-bennelong | Choice: y... | no | 1 | turnout-in-2025-canadian-federal-election | Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 20-21m? | 73,177,569 | 73,177,569 |
898ae27c82233fd99b2bb6d66209870d67d6a195 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x4158c53dbb8b0eaa3e5bee32799342c5b337931eb290974d1bdb7eeba00ba695 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberals win the Seat of Bennelong in the 2025 Australian Election? | Event: australia-election-seat-of-bennelong | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Australian Labor Party win between 75 and 79 seats? | Event: of-seats-labor-win-in-australian-election | Choice: no ... | yes | 1 | conservative-party-of-vote-in-canada-election | Will the Conservative Party win less than 32% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election? | 73,355,943 | 73,355,943 |
58e2a01effd362d7f7ac6f9df68b0e3027c301ea | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xbdb1cd496f2d7156097c75669981489d6f7a6da5eaf9ca7317f28328c3538a11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Australian Labor Party win between 75 and 79 seats? | Event: of-seats-labor-win-in-australian-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-... | yes | 1 | japan-house-of-councillors-election-2nd-place | Will CDP hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 74,287,903 | 74,287,903 |
5248314e12c2c751b50448f6bf44dfb449844ea8 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x83c8a61ad1d32ad4ae042179e46f3f51535747b4a83a668fb6b4d22bff946a79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.03412616339193381
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Pres... | no | 1 | japan-house-of-councillors-election-2nd-place | Will LDP hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 74,287,917 | 74,287,917 |
bfebb9d60af4a4dea3301bfde6238741b76d9c01 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xf345c4ced6c5fc4f8d6a1f94c1cff4eda3b5c8250bdf101d3d5f3457dd870e98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential ele... | yes | 1 | of-exhausted-ballots-in-nyc-mayor-dem-primary | Will the percentage of inactive ballots in the NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary be more than 4% and up to 8%? | 74,298,017 | 74,298,017 |
8c1e5247515d924c40ede596086ef4629f4ddee1 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xaf7e922f0804b6ccbb1a86518f9cb1321c17c942ce0f7e01a2dbbb2c73a59167 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Ev... | yes | 1 | andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be between 35% and 40% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | 74,301,858 | 74,301,858 |
ce98ff17b19e4a269aefacc3d795b457049f0335 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xd3358d16bad932b94fa24752fa59b379c4b02e91c7eae96c4611f5bb5637ed7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-1st-round-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats? | Event: of-seats-labor-win-in-australian-ele... | no | 1 | andrew-cuomo-1st-round-of-vote-in-nyc-dem-mayoral-primary | Will Andrew Cuomo’s vote share be less than 35% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | 74,301,874 | 74,301,874 |
3f31610d95ffe91aa92691f839104889e8760e22 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x858b43da775449fdf26ac016d1d9f228c7382911826a900c71e03add15cb7cc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats? | Event: of-seats-labor-win-in-australian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will another pers... | yes | 1 | turnout-in-2025-czech-parliamentary-election | Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Czech election? | 77,296,576 | 77,296,576 |
e48708e5f94255263260e16dce7e6842e5bee67e | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x8590d99d2725e7e68f3c199d7dd96f93e3f8c575c3f02e2426ffa45544df0830 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another person be the next Pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 50... | yes | 0.00025 | spolu-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,296,576 | 77,296,576 |
12bd31f00266614e03bd7fa9094e9aa993553302 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x87fe89d80d79de43f4885b6508d2989f7d15a37fe2a2826665e35adbcc5af574 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another person be the next Pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 50 and 54 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | stan-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will Starostové get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,296,576 | 77,296,576 |
3e48a00dd1ce81f8fba59ce4b4fa89ac861eb216 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xf0c9887f3abd02a04ef676d50111721be53c82cca554842e4613134928e5f9da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 50 and 54 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | spolu-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will SPOLU get between 23% and 26% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,296,576 | 77,296,576 |
6882aab0bc8005bfec4774d0d16b9b5b6b8b4bbd | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x09aa6d4cb073f5eaf5adf52a0c797d4891479a11c33eaa16733ad38abf9ebfa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Cr... | yes | 1 | psaha-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will Přísaha get less than 3% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,501,431 | 77,501,431 |
6ae2dd81d1e7ddf592d51b8aa14f59160462ece8 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x26427ad21db2772d5265934dd9500588ffbb4070b8829284c1a2338add42d5b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | ano-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,501,431 | 77,501,431 |
39a687a5e7352ef3b6504fb90be5360b3cd2ed0d | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0x7fecea81f6ff1f5551b7e56e3c13484f5ec0fe3e9a32e855c8e80ecaf630eb10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-e... | no | 1 | pirates-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will Piráti get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,501,431 | 77,501,431 |
66cf3a366ccd29a27f7ccf7849d22665edd05ad2 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xa7d9620a13637f04a948e197fbf3dda58f042f4f63d9eaa622b0596a41c2975a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election? | Event: which-party-wins-most-seats-in-portugal-election-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | C... | yes | 1 | stailo-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will STAČILO! get less than 5% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,501,431 | 77,501,431 |
98468474b63afe1fc310771534eec3d20448ba01 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xc87cb82af6f88377ea7535eb4e830babf4766313b271f182dfb6e86fcb24bc31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m? | Event: turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | spd-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will SPD get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,501,431 | 77,501,431 |
a340a33946ccbea8d3ad6cb0e3b86991ceb08e35 | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xcf629b392cb6ebbb90575ddcb2a4510ed4cba795e061bdb730df6aaeb4554ba7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m? | Event: turnout-in-2025-romanian-presindetial-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-... | yes | 1 | auto-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will Motoristé get between 5% and 7% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,501,431 | 77,501,431 |
99edc1dbe6cba0d8397ab4e40e5b8e76ac22ccae | 0x0d93b6645d7c7730dea3e8912d1ef1618ead8cbe | 0xdc1ac2450858f015c49752edb6beeb6172d0bd456ef785d3396b79c54373716f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? | Event: of-seats-liberalnational-coalition-wins-in-australian-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | Event: poland-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | pirates-of-vote-in-czech-election | Will Piráti get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election? | 77,501,431 | 77,501,431 |
9542015e3e0973ceabbc4250600d78a1368b367b | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Event: presidential-election-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,985,376 | 63,985,376 |
5ac46cccc3fb8712a3e2ee0d5fa3fd102dfa7ff5 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x0a3ad417872942ecfc92d57db03030badc8972406af588158761e72289b5c381 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more?
Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory
Predict the user's choice and co... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
08c68ba2cad98342f955da6a6607beb0995df799 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x12079c9217d2b98163da06d561f17c4938cc81cd7d82d066855b97331b9b9c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target mark... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
889c21442d5dfa5ce42e5c046612b1e28640a1b8 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x32f8d40aaacb6b8b94395555d1e82ee75a84ba5e62e15ab2966b78b5e2f332a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
394024002fdb78a708b0110e5b7682d33a71e1b4 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x4216ea4eec58946ea322cdf9e7d407e8e6f6793190aca3b2954bebf164b2411d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
b96f2014939003c4745f30487f2de68c769650ad | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x46cf194239f2bed4a4e74782ececd7babc45b9dbcaef362614454f420acef630 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Democrats win popular vote by 6-7%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
a1c43f31d6e1212ae2cf9cedcd171bae2c04beec | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xcbf51fc68dba66dd5715fd69c9cf5abea1fd8634c8df380bf79eecf0a89d3e09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
da6f951b67858e1caaa6ea367af3756decb24998 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xe05a262633ef0c31792b22f77906c539a0d9437ab7196dc0bc565539b7f6bdcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
aa571f9956f841b7fefbd2c6dbd176e3db6a3ef8 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xf54c534528539874c62dc06c41267493e44c21e47a0206fadf77beec68019578 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.0%-2.5%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
992abb6f5f71e1d1a5f7d7f21c0dd0bf6f66f106 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xfc85294228f82de21e18774b133a6db99ddaf4ebe5bf8c4f6c356ae4901d1165 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
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