sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4273fc7312a7e5a02e06d0b957b7c1aee363032a | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xfd3af5c93893b1cf117c28e4e8b1d91eca4c69649ec4e8dd62445667047ad9b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | Democrats win popular vote by 5-6%? | 65,627,533 | 65,627,533 |
e1d5460c9659633c9686b40f53bc8e3ce7466912 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x13137815713e2549030a2cd576f14c4e0442a7794782bc0ecd392b2090edfc1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1%? | 65,627,536 | 65,627,536 |
3e6f34fccf021120733d1b5dcc072705072cd635 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x642fcb3aa23395cc587a7825a37694867f440cd71976849589041e2361fb5c86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%? | 65,627,536 | 65,627,536 |
9c3230a4d9b335ef747bfb499ed46f4c1cb99d33 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x940dcb3b8d94c9325d574b277fad827b8c73985f79eceb8f3f37fc8c9c7fa413 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | 65,627,536 | 65,627,536 |
9c2c9772d3e7023ae73c6c04b6aab3162d3d38fa | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x02b8efebd72ce856a6d65f409d49d25f07a97477e81bc6c13e621f2aebb82112 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-midpoint-leader | Will Newcastle lead the EPL in points at midway point? | 67,083,543 | 67,083,543 |
90a1eb123f13836209656267f422774281fc5a47 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x3931ded587f37dddd953020a9fab69136061ab05455fa0e369fd1aa4500f7d0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year | Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? | 67,083,543 | 67,083,543 |
e4bd1a01e645f27bf44f444ed793c15921aac82c | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x3a5d8047acd8aa377956e65bd40bfafd47ff6d528559b22530fb3822bc1afbbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? | 67,083,543 | 67,083,543 |
99fb4282a654c897098806ef54a0b957973df38b | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0x554783fa7fa976932c95a505f06fb7b04fd06749237099c34a709e31a118d05b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-midpoint-leader | Will Tottenham lead the EPL in points at midway point? | 67,083,543 | 67,083,543 |
c667c15f196951b10c740954620d3f83a2d7ce74 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xa3621458f4a4f2941b17a309233889f97890609325c136895c8972e5cf0bf1b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-midpoint-leader | Will Brighton lead the EPL in points at midway point? | 67,083,543 | 67,083,543 |
2dbe83ade079e122a5172924a920191b18f9c400 | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xaad1b1fca4ebeb1cc77e514ab5431fa727592621d9f6c1cd5a1ffcd32d217105 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | epl-midpoint-leader | Will Nottingham Forest lead the EPL in points at midway point? | 67,083,543 | 67,083,543 |
b6d04fee8be894bcd8f2e16d63cb7f9342e970aa | 0x0d9ad2119723dbd542af30351715e7b854cc077e | 0xb685671ec5f12410f48006fad1ec60fa1a1e19f3a5ba09a81ab45b026821252d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? | Event: pennsylvania-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-december-2024 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2024 meeting? | 67,083,543 | 67,083,543 |
2fb5672f8b8460c129c351134e85d0ae7c7d80f4 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xb72ee5c81071931f10bb680bd6d9584aa162f0b3494e0f93453bb5f86f4a20a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15?
Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | 67,972,293 | 67,972,293 |
8ac29fb2b32681d486349e5815ad38db726b59ee | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x0cd2475d9c30c0a8cd29949c2ed4cd6d6cdcde628c40eb37863cc2c5d56aa84a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?
Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict ... | no | 1 | nba-3-point-contest-champion | Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | 67,996,575 | 67,996,575 |
1ac67f443b74dec70d481f389b16e3138585a057 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x142cbe8a91ee28faa325fcd95f9fd35fc2f2384aa3698c2eec0e5d0b448ec651 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA... | yes | 1 | nba-slam-dunk-contest-champion | Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest? | 67,996,575 | 67,996,575 |
2e3317516900bc73271e6519001dcc7e94937718 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x5d1325b6db95d001c0aeec176d6afbb4ec622913d87657ff5d2d5c6ebe44d727 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | no | 1 | nba-3-point-contest-champion | Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | 67,996,575 | 67,996,575 |
833068e02e4eb3c7c07a5d20efe99e7ca50cb352 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x879e43d3753fd4fa7496485355f34fb239567d0fb624f7ae6885778728fe863d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | no | 1 | nba-3-point-contest-champion | Will Buddy Hield win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | 67,996,575 | 67,996,575 |
f968f7d296d46ab5566a286ba84f01c5b75f1543 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x0627c2b543de2327a8b3bb629458184dc4f77cc5554fe5dc733f922979f2f999 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Will Team Chuck win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | 68,056,181 | 68,056,181 |
e428db5b8e9448de867d288c8dde8007b0528a08 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x2cab9db8bd08657c7adedcb55776d8ab9d97728f680b67f74089c28961ddd79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Will Team Candace win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | 68,056,181 | 68,056,181 |
4980b497598575df409cfd670c72773952d8969c | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x827fef0e221276150d690b4b3b415a37467df6f07686fabdc33bd0c17af51a8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | yes | 1 | 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Will Team Shaq win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | 68,056,181 | 68,056,181 |
cc2c50b99ada1a9909b17aaca8128e22f805c92f | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x9aa80760a847e9a85dada5010081ffcd8b597d9b1578a07707b7dcf7b53a9ebd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 7? | 68,778,382 | 68,778,382 |
a870b06f0d643492f40927b2c4127084e01580c0 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xf31c8ef606ed3dbf4ba7fca3ca59d7acba59aa8326a94b57a02d35ef0dc58521 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 7? | 68,778,382 | 68,778,382 |
2b22b3586cb99795829af943196f77e2cf661394 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x6ee6bfeb4a8cfc31718f8ae5505bc6c6442b70a2854b00adfef9a4f473df3452 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | warriors | 1 | nba-sac-gsw-2025-03-13 | Kings vs. Warriors | 69,023,282 | 69,041,046 |
04ce22abf9ef3042c0efd852efaf4699720ad8da | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x4e720ef02e20df66202c30f53d4d1b233ebe4fd6da023b2468026f4f29102ac1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? | 69,058,324 | 69,058,324 |
dbfad1b8f0252edf1fc5fedc042988122e6e0c5f | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x86e5774c7412660728de0f7381c70ce4e712c2441219fe98542ff25d479bc337 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | hawks | 0 | nba-atl-cha-2025-03-18 | Hawks vs. Hornets | 69,200,273 | 69,202,839 |
5c04b142b634424b2cdcad72ec31b38a1c8f94fa | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x74fc472dc8e4c6f5f83ab64c022279a1b2e85687415caa338c6197815d923d3a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | mavericks | 0 | nba-dal-ind-2025-03-19 | Mavericks vs. Pacers | 69,260,817 | 69,266,034 |
4f21be4a32ad988f5006c2bca9ca235ee5ad6790 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xba63f0e3e4dd46a5e5f28e5a5236a8feafe1b123cbd76e4571bd4c2f7888f473 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | spurs | 0.000001 | nba-nyk-sas-2025-03-19 | Knicks vs. Spurs | 69,262,799 | 69,262,799 |
e3b73a99c56da3aa8893e67f126a2a9b777a4b96 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x1afa48dccfdae1964bd77bd4667cc42b493c2094542103f71c49691a8568b6a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | jazz | 0 | nba-was-uta-2025-03-19 | Wizards vs. Jazz | 69,264,152 | 69,264,152 |
4c746775c0bbdddcb3b8f64124693d986eb2138a | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xfca2f92bcc3a6a5d89d770bab4576d1123f0e97fcc4201a7d227265ea5133dd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-sac-2025-03-19 | Cavaliers vs. Kings | 69,265,843 | 69,283,890 |
9f87ce7fee6713096c23e932d025acba2a8c1782 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x173f688ca6ac681818e995ad721f4569b85313f1d7c4cc99858a364f5afedb2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | hornets | 0 | nba-nyk-cha-2025-03-20 | Knicks vs. Hornets | 69,301,424 | 69,301,424 |
c88ea35016377a74c5480b827082caaec952f958 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x35ca3f619815d3eb1041cc4efd0a4f4bbca3d9eacdff614a2e05da688cfdeaf2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | nets | 0 | nba-bkn-ind-2025-03-20 | Nets vs. Pacers | 69,301,784 | 69,312,242 |
673618c9547c91f9bab78e1404a27d72ebb5259a | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x53e87ab6d71d7c03628e7a2d4e5411e34aec84ade3c01dc9f52a0518a1e95f6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | bulls | 0 | nba-chi-sac-2025-03-20 | Bulls vs. Kings | 69,305,919 | 69,312,242 |
39bcbf543802d37b07f7435bb56d0cd7b6143dcf | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x44ae2b328ccb6e42cbc7d847ac0ce95d7caa5a14f712f89d31a3c8d8f62838f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | 76ers | 0 | nba-phi-sas-2025-03-21 | 76ers vs. Spurs | 69,343,294 | 69,343,793 |
4eb6392c07900fcb8462530d54bfc884dcd31414 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x81c9e813dc3e136451b6c772036e4292763ec6422191e1bcc5167b248a5f26ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | mavericks | 0 | nba-det-dal-2025-03-21 | Pistons vs. Mavericks | 69,344,795 | 69,345,041 |
5ab6a5afbc3dbe3fd164bec2d91058751812491a | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xd5a23604dc7ab17ec441491ce8617b3f7a6621f9c21842a158336579da9e3973 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-phx-2025-03-21 | Cavaliers vs. Suns | 69,346,748 | 69,346,748 |
c6f8f39acca3c4b8a7ec4b936a88c1567abe9ef5 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xf2440f7ca69b8dd6c689b963041e9ba54da5d28f38712f2b6d15b0ff9b7a1349 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | clippers | 0 | nba-mem-lac-2025-03-21 | Grizzlies vs. Clippers | 69,347,316 | 69,362,975 |
d3aed5b591613c946889300c653369e1ce903762 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x4e272c58738ecd248e25cb94459213e7d0fc6e58b0c41b1d0d7c45d8b08882ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | pacers | 0 | nba-bkn-ind-2025-03-22 | Nets vs. Pacers | 69,379,045 | 69,379,409 |
d174c7e70b81307fa30dfcc85af1b21d3053756d | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x30057e14bf7b7e1bc0dfecde971420513ea067c2b42070561daa85cb4205b411 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | hawks | 0.000002 | nba-gsw-atl-2025-03-22 | Warriors vs. Hawks | 69,382,703 | 69,382,703 |
43e3ed524d8eebe171e018188d263c0a7a7c6027 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x7e0f1507528471d27cbea8bff551f0d3a2e1f42efeb2ca2881d170c8e775b849 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | knicks | 0.000001 | nba-was-nyk-2025-03-22 | Wizards vs. Knicks | 69,384,168 | 69,384,168 |
b594a66f4635233220ef5130fe491122a795132a | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xfab5d741fc9f6c03a05baf9dad004ba41a0794523da144854224f5c3324add9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | bucks | 0 | nba-mil-sac-2025-03-22 | Bucks vs. Kings | 69,387,727 | 69,414,855 |
ee58ab5649269b1166552eb3723e251e14a4d167 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0xec8530daba0d3d084e3b09a681960caea00da7733442b950dd2748a31b3b842d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | bulls | 0 | nba-chi-lal-2025-03-22 | Bulls vs. Lakers | 69,388,253 | 69,388,478 |
e8b14d4a190afd7c80aca5a3c8e33ada1c378848 | 0x0ddaeddc576d81dc44a87f717255fbc428b54cf6 | 0x0a8336bccc044f6cfe77e60502bed0d99e2d2d12f4e884a81bed7de9a8a0207e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2025-02-15? | Event: epl-lei-ars-2025-02-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Event: nba-3-point-contest-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Co... | cavaliers | 0.000005 | nba-cle-uta-2025-03-23 | Cavaliers vs. Jazz | 69,416,985 | 69,416,985 |
98f49fb76841369f71f2fb4da9352a90b05555a2 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xef5eab03fae6f011ecfd8127d82211a8a2bc6fb1c81a03a2b6c2981622aa6eb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad?
Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | 67,371,218 | 67,371,218 |
b21d8baecf4b5788d8e1e164d8c72fa53353fea9 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x237f63a66cec4503cf486275b247d56175d161fb3564511b185dbe1d92077e5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?
Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "... | yes | 1 | trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | 67,440,706 | 67,440,706 |
a4f8fed753e2244e1ca603874bf2ce88d77b3681 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x3fdf885d8c0a7d7e4c39e3578fb7c7221f160aec35cbaf81d5aff4f3d037134a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by marke... | no | 1 | largest-company-on-next-friday | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7? | 67,742,707 | 67,742,707 |
03efd268503be6f04669cd036d3ab92591126cff | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xbb7a2aa5dd8c1c0ea19f9acb0c221945a8c21a5118bbb2aaae2d4b58d57db0bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-february-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on Feb 28? | 68,502,000 | 68,502,000 |
974a06f0ce5d85e02f102cac69d0215f116043d8 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x19489d6de9495485e7e11e37401b22759cb981f558913e5b9ebe30ae8630b09a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | how-many-federal-employees-will-accept-buyout | Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout? | 68,558,793 | 68,558,793 |
bcac6617bcb57c33238449ae508bda258af6a593 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x3971d3824acd5e05e0a4a54f2fe561439fece08240e86cfd074a858dcdbf68fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-dogecoin-hit-in-february | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? | 68,558,793 | 68,558,793 |
f26baee39cd9ccf6d4edb0eb6f4703acbe9f16e7 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x1b251a8daeec77c40a3cc10a5ea413c710f3c146188a76357d3b159aace2da43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | europa-league-winner-24-25 | Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? | 69,051,808 | 69,051,808 |
1d240cbaf751239d7f7f271b539cfd250887a3b7 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x8d762b96d3a92f61823a593e64ec6cd2287f4671a25a1a4824961d5ba8bcf5a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | 69,051,808 | 69,051,808 |
4af2a84a32af00a575f1c9118e599a058063a113 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x81d6173699923b14dd7fef07f73395136374703d1672b12b2d342c08368711e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 1 | spacex-rescues-stranded-astronauts-before-april | SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before April? | 69,230,813 | 69,230,813 |
7bf0a4ec7321d3408218a0948adfa3ee2716a450 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xf7050a33a8444389ef1800e4476b43a987ff72668be0b616a4b457f5ba944a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | 69,255,035 | 69,255,035 |
de01a7f7fd1c540e13a7c20294d2b6d32bcd2daa | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x99f8e35bc9c879895d9ed9f34b2ac6d3eacfbcdb7f2905a90ade12394383c714 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of less than 10% on the EU by June 30? | 69,877,283 | 69,877,283 |
4f6ab10993690068df98853e9e73b1b1dc3557af | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xe7ac86df7f22fb54650cb97661fcbc1d27a185acd4b7fca1f39a457a8454a2ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | nba-scoring-leader | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? | 70,343,076 | 70,343,076 |
4f81f9dd9c2bb13f489774add580849c90605383 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xb2c9efa8c600e67b26b07ec75b16a5632878a2c9be9b736c5dd8c500959cfbdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 0.462599 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Will Trump say "51st State" this week? | 71,084,834 | 71,177,227 |
7b7c7052cfdacb747059a8406a15170c80b7c64f | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xd81e4ac9199bb8241b1ec5ad62260cb7004f0f069804863f1c7560f78acb7eb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0.304195 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? | 71,105,374 | 71,295,578 |
161d40c93127595df918580e42f12152e7ebfdb4 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x5fdb04209a04310623fa63b9d9e4867ce199f69190ce95cf4a73eb52d5e793f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0 | what-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview | Will Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his May 8 interview? | 71,178,436 | 71,178,436 |
0c4b27d1a3cb0ff4ba3c24ee06e7d17c15d6ae86 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xab8cd334c6f01cf4673f278c605400f48be6cc7f982aad13df6f36846d4418e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0.000036 | what-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview | Will Joe Biden say "Zelenskyy" during his May 8 interview? | 71,179,782 | 71,182,784 |
a358924d59aa32b07d60fda833a0b1b0c84c96ff | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x94bfc50e5bf1c3495a4e61a4719482650ced5e532b3f14a1b94a0fdd5d3f68b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0 | what-will-saylor-say-during-his-strategy-world-2025-keynote | Will Saylor say "Bitcoin" 75+ times during his Strategy World 2025 keynote? | 71,181,342 | 71,196,444 |
3865eb3473947a4e2fecb3907e155dc6a0c14445 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x581232d312c310c909a5d21c992e3df79ad7a77fa0b3a3673a14165f8921dbb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0.713841 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? | 71,182,166 | 71,182,166 |
15f1fdbeef5a2070adffcfc23738dd66b92ac028 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x1f1ef6c775fa37ccd50696c6ad0196b87cf4e64f4049b641d11ba660652fd9c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0.001052 | what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-121 | Will Karoline Leavitt say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?1 | 71,312,188 | 71,312,188 |
f46b722f64a6564a5de90bf25b64e4fd2c558f71 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x5ad810c8d042f53c457a413241175022503d290593c54c8fb713d4ffae5f9cb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0 | what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-121 | Will Karoline Leavitt say "Executive order" during next White House press briefing? | 71,312,514 | 71,312,514 |
c95f062056cf12794b995722f98a398ebc3d6081 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x16c3cf8cc82b201e7acbad98afea9f9f54a8e114d0b2060c8e2a9b5770842b8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-121 | Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing? | 71,329,222 | 71,329,222 |
1d71dc49483622df55f1f3684947997cae384551 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xdc762fc53518021f2e07ac63aa8e87ca9232fec4f8dd9d5aa9fc8a711a456bd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july | Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July? | 71,330,326 | 71,330,326 |
991110deeb4a6f6f348b909fa197e34b5ad9b711 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xa6e9cc8102d4c8a69487c9870608364f8854ac0e45f1829073381eb9d0dc6eeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 1 | which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july | Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? | 71,435,026 | 71,435,026 |
89dc988708ede600a42def9ca497c56d0031452b | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xc465c12554c20f3e675ce316edea978ee1831829fbfb748d416ee5311b727b0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 0.792356 | trump-renames-persian-gulf-to-arabian-gulf-in-may | Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May? | 71,586,707 | 71,586,707 |
ba8963735b7cc48331e9adcce35ef3783546e1ed | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xeff54605054d6070060667186f674f6b1bb85413b0dea7ad510b252a45409f44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | 71,671,781 | 71,671,781 |
2e49ef0e046e5f168cceddabca6524af10e31384 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | no | 0.000121 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 71,680,298 | 71,680,298 |
5a56a6cfc955f04dfbdabf1610e5244281bbd471 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x0aec6042d8a414340c27906eea326875ffa3de81851cca89da35c674b2d92245 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Will 6 inmates be captured by Friday? | 71,905,259 | 71,905,259 |
dcc924754058374333b83ef907c03ec9152592c6 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x175f67638b4a7bc702d7001db4c0c9e8d129c03c855f29bef8b2facf0f3c1ac6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Will 9 inmates be captured by Friday? | 71,905,259 | 71,905,259 |
8673f7c2babe327dca1ee5b748179096fe4f9ebe | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x189ca1b8552079043389e2289fa02e847539ba1a5f93282e52473d5cf637200f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Will 7 inmates be captured by Friday? | 71,905,259 | 71,905,259 |
18c26e1cb1ed4a366dde0644eaaab418d70a515e | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x1f6f9096420d286eebe7d6badb30fbcf5708bdd9ceadec732967f10d7e363eed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Will 8 inmates be captured by Friday? | 71,905,259 | 71,905,259 |
53e8f834d7ec1cac408638af20ffbb2039cdf3dd | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x1b55c565366e461c14596a53bde994c6b1cc28ccf4992a8daae4d99184964873 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | Event: uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febr... | yes | 1 | 2025-euroleague-basketball-champion | Will Panathinaikos AKTOR win the 2025 EuroLeague? | 71,922,266 | 71,922,266 |
255f230c7427cc9567bba5dffc4effebdda757e8 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x39ee3d7c92748b31e748e7852c59a75260700cc0d346e8b99058832f20e2046b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? | Event: trump-fdv-on-february-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7? | Event: largest-company-on-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of ... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-at-west-point-commencement-speech | Will Trump say "Woke" or "Wokeness" during West Point Commencement on May 24? | 71,922,266 | 71,922,266 |
44832e921b473992bd3f106cbed52a84ad9faea8 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x16d1a94b07e3e00635e4c3f8ef23f9c307258f8b41fb988bfcd2146349dbc049 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7? | Event: largest-company-on-next-friday | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on Feb 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | 2025-euroleague-basketball-champion | Will AS Monaco win the 2025 EuroLeague? | 72,013,314 | 72,013,314 |
ba84cfba018f85b75b7b129fe67c720bdc53e8bc | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x74336eab988efdb341495785a1be377bbbb184cc1988b74aab33b1e51c5040cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on Feb 28? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout? | Event: how-many-federal-employees-will-accept-buyout | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | 2025-euroleague-basketball-champion | Will Fenerbahçe Beko Istanbul win the 2025 EuroLeague? | 72,013,314 | 72,013,314 |
bc10ae2466d29c7206032ea694a7c1147047ed6b | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xf7f7eff2fdfdb4fbd98e039abfa602179e3e1f3303d4ea12e78cb3c143014da3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout? | Event: how-many-federal-employees-will-accept-buyout | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? | Event: what-price-will-dogecoin-hit-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-and-elon-say-during-fridays-press-conference | Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Mars" during the press conference? | 72,164,950 | 72,164,950 |
265ccc6369f426a56c6a0fa9b303bd218fde34ed | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xef443b53d0cebf6e669b186c77dedb1b49a3e85c457db381ddb719dae2308072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? | Event: what-price-will-dogecoin-hit-in-february | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% o... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-236 | Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" this week? | 72,202,514 | 72,202,514 |
d04f7011f9e499c5221e8808df6005d050698df9 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x1b67213547fdd297eb1de78c0174fc3e8b47977021ca7c1ba6bb239b143c1fe3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? | Event: europa-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX rescues stranded... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-exact-score | Will PSG win 3-1? | 72,217,091 | 72,217,091 |
2e2c4629fcc55730a2e0465ed32c291685952ed4 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x7beceb04f7b1d4f0dde80b58c6f43c23b8ad54b21c693e172c974f480b46483c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? | Event: afd-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before April? | Event: spacex-rescues-stranded-astronauts-before-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | 72,217,091 | 72,217,091 |
eb65ecdc75445d5c79954e47d59ca617474f0123 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xe29f1cf8a71f80e9bbd69d0d23856855549f7deec110328bff60eba92faf0138 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before April? | Event: spacex-rescues-stranded-astronauts-before-april | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | yes | 0.001718 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-313 | Will Trump say "Biden" this week? | 72,217,466 | 72,217,466 |
a82488fee91edccbd210e9c42b6ab07b5ddb373f | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xe305b4771da0a84fd4c77255be5ae13c8ad6f6b67db1d13702f9e79573dfa9bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of less than 10% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 0 | what-will-powell-say-during-june-press-conference | Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference? | 72,230,279 | 72,956,602 |
236c8df6da96c53d8cc62cb2d1f65f8fff9a9ee5 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x65a8ccf26a61c9ed5ac4ae3770a866f380c6447bc8b278028c75945ca63a5d4d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of less than 10% on the EU by June 30? | Event: how-large-will-trump-eu-tariffs-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | will-the-black-woman-statue-be-removed-from-times-square-early | Will the Black Woman statue be removed from Times Square early? | 72,290,720 | 72,919,701 |
9e7dbcfda91510cd8066991ca587c965fb7a36ff | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xa6e22e2aae567a3c88537ef1e82aa70d77f573aca7fc94b0e850442197777fef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? | Event: nba-scoring-leader | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "51st State" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.46259854924144483
3. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" or ... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-this-week-313 | Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" this week? | 72,301,330 | 72,301,330 |
6bdfe52ee4ad7066a5a2f17da92021135a6585ee | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x740af375d3cda716a4b9521b7f5b4be12534fbe9ef16089c646dd8e4cd25d301 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "51st State" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.46259854924144483
2. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.304195458738902... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-merz-events-on-june-5 | Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Merz events on June 5? | 72,305,318 | 72,426,646 |
7eb59367d054ad230bc0abcfa251619ceb15c218 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x3668408c534157108124966c52bf31a71f05bb21c1e8557d6e9475a8c737c879 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.30419545873890286
2. Question: Will Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his May 8 interview? | Event: what-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview | Choice: no | ... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-merz-events-on-june-5 | Will Donald Trump say "Make a deal" during Merz events on June 5? | 72,309,496 | 72,403,632 |
478799e36debbb8057b70378f0386d2d128a9128 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xfe3249fd90358b5fffa7269f6a64c17c18eaaecb1ee769548beff21146ad0313 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his May 8 interview? | Event: what-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden say "Zelenskyy" during his May 8 interview? | Event: what-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-merz-events-on-june-5 | Will Donald Trump say "Angela / Merkel" during Merz events on June 5? | 72,324,617 | 72,403,632 |
bb9b8862ac4ec87b9327bd3f90ce67e86ff70f69 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x4406e465304dcac85bb6065d8251ceff57c8b119d287ce527d0b1b4656a41c49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden say "Zelenskyy" during his May 8 interview? | Event: what-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.6301317737833884e-05
2. Question: Will Saylor say "Bitcoin" 75+ times during his Strategy World 2025 keynote? | Event: what-will-saylor-say-during-hi... | no | 0 | nyc-mayoral-1st-democratic-primary-debate-mentions | Will a candidate say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4? | 72,325,586 | 72,384,189 |
8fb318bceecf40d06527867696f7bcaa1f22c5b7 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xd845bc4c1a3cc73ce16c3d9e3dd5851eaa3ee9e2b7c9b1d01a3b4ba1bb09b074 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Saylor say "Bitcoin" 75+ times during his Strategy World 2025 keynote? | Event: what-will-saylor-say-during-his-strategy-world-2025-keynote | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 0 | nyc-mayoral-1st-democratic-primary-debate-mentions | Will a candidate say "Crime" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4? | 72,328,235 | 72,384,189 |
568691cc16f2a3d0273095c8d440c8efa7da761a | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x47113d79890d63ecad88e870e74bde15966c211be7bf33c1db13ee957fd65d5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? | Event: what-will-trump-say-this-week-134 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7138406053970554
2. Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?1 | Event: what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house... | no | 1 | nyc-mayoral-1st-democratic-primary-debate-mentions | Will a candidate say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4? | 72,384,189 | 72,384,189 |
de154c5844d7dd49fd134d3934f0f57cdc56802e | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xb7bc5c4d181fa93896c17f54f5609f3f2a25ca142ca785213877cd697cf715a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?1 | Event: what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-121 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0010518292242153375
2. Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Executive order" during next... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-merz-events-on-june-5 | Will Donald Trump say "Russia / Ukraine" 5+ times during Merz events on June 5? | 72,403,632 | 72,403,632 |
6c87f1f34be7dda836735247b8794f58e5475460 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xccfee70255a466f18e509011a92ddbcf186e9e6df2402c8c18658996abb5ca6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "Executive order" during next White House press briefing? | Event: what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-121 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press brie... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-merz-events-on-june-5 | Will Donald Trump say "European Union" during Merz events on June 5? | 72,403,632 | 72,403,632 |
aa8ddfa575a4afa9909d1b6080cfeb26f35f4f49 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x2a15e81acfeb9f2f06785eac6b990af6c058d60d7a9e1cd7766da7586f4a6fc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during next White House press briefing? | Event: what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-121 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July? | Ev... | no | 0.000091 | will-trump-sign-an-executive-order-on-june-7-13 | Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 9? | 72,566,935 | 72,566,935 |
5da06b115b292de133d471f9361e5e1609895b59 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x954739e62ab7e6533e20d165a8431b543f40f08604259614a899b4bcb075811e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July? | Event: which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? | Event: which-countries-will-the-us-agre... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | 72,610,944 | 72,610,944 |
4862b46761aeb2eb86660baf2593e5566f72d716 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xe061e8a383db6552ce23b6eb357b8f3a54255c2bf623120465c9cf85979feade | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? | Event: which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-trade-deals-with-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May? | Event: trump-renames-persian-gulf-to-arabian-gulf-in-may | ... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | 72,610,944 | 72,610,944 |
a5acfb3d8e4f9e5ddb1ab7e46ce73737b64bdf13 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xffa0e55b821922d63d3d02b1bf9186ebe351c7216ad8ec2a877648589470f635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May? | Event: trump-renames-persian-gulf-to-arabian-gulf-in-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7923563268773597
2. Question: Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decrea... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-may | Will Donald Trump issue 20-24 executive orders in May? | 72,688,828 | 72,688,828 |
c655e81a18a22142728d1bd389d59233be353275 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x9b3d18009144884f55fce1629b74d68adea8c510a4a3bbda08c68d9cdd1d4b1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00012071457024862901
3. Question: Will 6 inmates... | yes | 1 | nyc-mayoral-2nd-democratic-primary-debate-mentions | Will anyone say "ICE" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12? | 72,701,188 | 72,701,188 |
3258f5a43ee339904a887c0a4bf3af14fa948221 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xf2b37b517820dde52edf9e99f057c6826e0417058a7ccb075d21926ef29c81ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00012071457024862901
2. Question: Will 6 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | what-will-powell-say-during-june-press-conference | Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? | 72,956,602 | 72,956,602 |
1fb59595576de72e8fd4b2538f04e64299612f72 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x97bd94f6e395a5c8ac77020a53dd22ac370882efa064f3b0bb2ea748e13cc43c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 6 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 9 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 7 inmates be captured by Friday? | E... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Evangelos Pavlidis be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,512,415 | 73,512,415 |
05fadc9f2872d02960da2e4447797d1bc1163ecb | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0x0926fbba9af04909f509d9767b13ccb2c9759fc847d833e30ae4ce7f5a7dfe9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 9 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 7 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 8 inmates be captured by Friday? | E... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-june | Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June? | 73,827,785 | 73,827,785 |
975fca3ab08a6a58ba2880b22859f0405ccd00d1 | 0x0e296cbd5596272f1661a9ff64ce44232dea1a0c | 0xadc609b230be8b4415abfe96393035e681029ac65fca1d8d8f1096c16184c9e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 7 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 8 inmates be captured by Friday? | Event: how-many-inmates-caught-by-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Panathinaikos AKTOR win the 2025 Eur... | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-june | Will Donald Trump issue 20-24 executive orders in June? | 73,827,785 | 73,827,785 |
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