sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9ff0b1f6c8a42d52ad7b98c631262e0a3811ffd8 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x165a1656da96a44fff259257592d7ad68456d6a14326e16f3c8d8c285641a2e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Qairat FK end in a draw? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7135124009965217
... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-on-november-12 | XRP Up or Down on November 12? | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
d27e624a93005695c793e1fb346c050dd1a1314f | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x2dce95b596c0667b61d52048342db0c28d55cba33557082ae29afee10d82e655 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Qairat FK end in a draw? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7135124009965217
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Rich country" or "Richest country" during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
e53bcf8d02c2f8a205ef83e04207b39731fa19e3 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x3a210903a10db7135a5f910416c74082122f33536c97e97fdc30bf2d2c68a956 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5952001737133112
3. Question: Will Israel ... | hawks | 1 | nba-det-atl-2025-11-18 | Pistons vs. Hawks | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
f601d5e7c0a5744776da2e756710dd16577649e2 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x5593eef656440aa96516da0473f9b1a790b12c8aabc7043b816e69be6f94ccf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5952001737133112
2. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5? | Eve... | no | 0.991471 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-891 | Will “The Beast in Me” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025) | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
b44ab7ce6a63875fe3b6c4e29f80571025e16096 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x7367efa0c2d9e6b274155420822131c5e69910232b199bec23e14ca73918c526 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000... | no | 0 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17? | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
6ea8614e7d107b1f7b7dfa306e0de19776aeb07c | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x933b8580acc8eee4e858cc6e724e1f2753e9ae24186a544a581903cc68976815 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13928717256430317
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 0 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13? | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
45cb11ab7811f07b860531a07036100ca16e2e30 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x9f9b15947f0ba9daf66714c8434fdd8486c281d5456fc6512c97e75e5162d283 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.13928717256430317
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confi... | yes | 0.86315 | ethereum-price-on-november-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on November 13? | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
77b942258c80250b10558cb2e1f31ce8ea943b74 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xc6cd5fb71f2edd1105a49a3108619aaa34d5140435be27392f1984f65b55cf63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9678268178643635
2. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-09-08? | Event: caf-gui-alg-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highe... | hawks | 0 | nba-det-atl-2025-11-18 | Spread: Hawks (-1.5) | 79,215,137 | 79,215,137 |
b65526eb17488c38db12dfa0e583002e422f67b4 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xf096ae4f1d356372ce7f8d80f87c79182d700ef7ee138e6475c9b360a2c1829b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-09-08? | Event: caf-gui-alg-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7005266318412984
3. Questi... | no | 0.969464 | uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Will Moldova win on 2025-11-13? | 79,215,137 | 79,736,187 |
716aab8093b753fc538d0aa39d2a0e074590703e | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x5df7c923f86f4423f4e1fef435f0cf483c83f2544b57911052258258e7b303ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7005266318412984
2. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | E... | no | 1 | will-federal-employees-receive-back-pay-after-the-government-shutdown | Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? | 79,215,138 | 79,215,138 |
57bcf42f43be593c0bfc984e36fc198a7b0d7b55 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x65073e7b6c3e8367597f9667d639fc681227c2aeea7c98ec15dbf03632e8ba87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Net... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 11? | 79,215,138 | 79,215,138 |
c4a150850a1123524709056ba072db4cf4a52faa | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xc295b3779bd5923f7a7179b4e422a02760a9a43117f536465b1c05dbb12b93d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.7174515235457064
2. Question: Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second mo... | yes | 0.001497 | will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-in-2025 | Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | 79,215,138 | 79,215,138 |
e4db79b040652a3aa5636cb9369f89d2106d20ff | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x50c11f16cffd34a000c0a58650132e5a249f1d4a49503d419356a859e26ebd10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.03729536200052191
2. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? |... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 20? | 79,215,138 | 79,736,117 |
2ddf204b9b796bf2e020c40c18bc3e9227d18c03 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x490dd19f87995d5a248a4f409f949b401916c931be10671bb5a26336f47cf84a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? | Event: ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9925079355897515
2. Question: Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting? | Event: bank-of-canada-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | will-trump-win-fifa-peace-prize | Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? | 79,215,138 | 79,975,113 |
5c1f254c4a4106b23c757e18c16f5bf52ae59202 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x234a3f45e7e5f9bfb2251351b06fdbe764e69261c6a8ba0ac76b398ccbcb491d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting? | Event: bank-of-canada-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9972792749212506
2. Question: Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting? | Event: bank-of-canada-decision-in-october | Ch... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-investment-forum-on-november-19 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19? | 79,736,115 | 79,736,115 |
1108c80632082a350e3db795c6673ac872260b62 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x5a4b4fa8bd9e0e40ce46f65bfcf720bf714761470d3451c3a0109cf6aa18f7bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting? | Event: bank-of-canada-decision-in-october | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | no | 1 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19? | 79,736,115 | 79,736,115 |
34da31f5f3d1ac82d19b9b77608b897e6f28ef98 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x7cd040c8931518bab4b99ae296e1c0f336c374e3153f52fd53c727be0b2e264d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? | Event: will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-10-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ time... | bulls | 1 | nba-chi-por-2025-11-19 | Bulls vs. Trail Blazers | 79,736,115 | 79,736,115 |
2ed67ef5cc936138009d76e6eae28c223043e94c | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x8da32bf7a21c9a1339042573ba4d82f62396191247e88b6f22b8d7ceff980601 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-10-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during Saudi PM events on November 18? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Choice: no | C... | louisville | 0 | cfb-lou-smu-2025-11-22 | Louisville vs. SMU Mustangs | 79,736,115 | 79,736,115 |
c4ea8d03703fb3b34914bdf88a627fc5baf83002 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x87ab67e69832b33d0601d55628a8f27d7692093bced56b5786c8b884087cf462 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03?
Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | 79,849,926 | 79,849,926 |
79a196d0f42d91d6ec14f78f2777fc49cfcd604c | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x9a421a9cf62d6d73e7d0353549d1e85f6a8aefc379808685298cff67dcf07dd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?
Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choi... | no | 1 | itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | 79,849,926 | 79,849,926 |
a3a1aa8a6465cb7965888087c4c02a6398958f04 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xd30a104204d3bb7c1a3c9757bc4442a617722b4e72c9b143473d1dd17e246533 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03?
Event: itc-... | no | 1 | itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | 79,849,926 | 79,849,926 |
68150e3a8f740b600d20f25e0e06ec004623d87e | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x35eae8e63b6764c021d2e9ed9042597c8bd5ad8781fee89c3dd7675f028c17c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | bra-fla-csc-2025-12-03 | Will CR Flamengo vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? | 79,861,428 | 79,861,428 |
0c64b3693520331f748cdd5a26da5d0d352d5336 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x87bb95f90532bf63fbbb4570568c0ff693177e01c9a7fd9ab0ba409e4bb3fb96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | bra-cam-pal-2025-12-03 | Will CA Mineiro vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? | 79,861,428 | 79,861,428 |
31898f2aedf2944348e38bc0307d6b863e9dced0 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xd00f632ad4d38b1d34ea901f35c7da2451f34fb0da033a2c6104cf08bbb3bad8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | bra-fla-csc-2025-12-03 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-12-03? | 79,861,428 | 79,861,428 |
a6ff6cb6e6ffcbfa6cbbb7ad89f0db3581df7634 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xb9b05c3a14c6a7c1c6c00a8c214ed154d4232a885f98ebfd01889204ed252931 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | 79,864,084 | 79,864,084 |
7f6dc790687448df8292b02e104e029237eb8040 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x1c9885eb9bff8ecfdf54f7344532c7f956b54484b85020b577785c4474cbc7bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | 79,867,473 | 79,867,473 |
7d21b2eae55b95e66146f18d2b8f615f6b15b1e8 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x6e606fad11ade0f18ad820169793f20078dff02623c6310aa50783dc158d1e6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | next-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-on | Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 3? | 79,867,937 | 79,867,937 |
76789c513e93d76f901e3fbf3dd4fdabf7cacfe8 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x64c0939f8fd39ea91515c210d39f8520c11a12560b37c89d825478877a7f11af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-december-2025 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in December 2025? | 79,880,185 | 79,880,185 |
9472bc3e5f994b78dc96d81849f9549593777fbf | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x7167864f85052e4a219237e61fe07ece9ef3963e2414861cd09b652229f1200e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-december-4 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 54°F or below on December 4? | 79,912,301 | 79,912,301 |
f58df803834368f000dafeccbc4d36245689080f | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x043abfc205f0b43f33fec2b856542c5453adb0e9a402ef93e912365fb0a97265 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on December 5? | 79,920,376 | 79,920,376 |
56c67ace25c66bb1abee5791563bcf1b1f125d2e | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x1579e0624ae6522a1795041933dcdbfb01a21a36d9b2316edf75361add4b7d9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-chicago-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 24°F or below on December 5? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
5a24e286661846def311873f1ff6d1add99802b4 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x1a6e229f2495cabf466c0a709094485f847ee47861a48b81dbfc592090f9de84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-seattle-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46–47 °F on December 5? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
058d44d85aa0c42a051b890c511850d223043a1a | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x45a09a7aac7f8db2abda937b95986f5e81f936df55f7c593d526cbc31cac6abd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | yes | 1 | 2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-december-5 | Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
da876b9f739fd365af35d2907bdbd7eeb90d5092 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x49a243370ca9ea028d4042b3ffe59702b076180d4f9d135d80ad92781863f31e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-denver-on-december-5-147 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be 35°F or below on December 5? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
c6d8056e2baa76d343e1e3f14cd98eb6c134ef32 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x5b564a810633bfdcff84b8c67c7df2e45ebb63ba34a2944cc80690a3490a5778 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | rus-ter-ore-2025-12-05 | Will FK Orenburg win on 2025-12-05? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
f41e1fac276812adf3e3de7a31490241cf1545d5 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xb4a9bb36b751e2b234ceb2bb782d1f4ba6b1bebd9e15387ba63eeaeeae14584d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 27-28°F on December 5? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
535abbe4b2910e4adad839643d1e00decd3a1648 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xdb8ddd77ebd28387cb8d2556e51f7fd2488d2c5ce55dce3ea689101c7a52f1de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or below on December 5? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
a20d4b305fba5444da0e8c514ecc9dc67111cb24 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xe26b76e6f2269cb8bc823e85f4c7a1f953003e7cfae1985ec18872d943492a8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-los-angeles-on-december-5 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on December 5? | 79,935,234 | 79,935,234 |
462a4a7906506134b09505cf4d7100235a67167e | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x3f2c10f4953a7fea8ff2d72b349d999004b97357858f0d5300a74a274e8fcfea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | conference-usa-championship-game-winner | Will Jacksonville State win the 2025 Conference USA Championship Game? | 79,950,172 | 79,950,172 |
10b61c10e817b5ee250a326fdce7b058d46ac956 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xbe3e68c43703ed6b58a123253de0b471cf1f78ae6d5f917e1969658aebf3ecc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | yes | 1 | conference-usa-championship-game-winner | Will Kennesaw State win the 2025 Conference USA Championship Game? | 79,950,172 | 79,950,172 |
6a63821e8e8506597e146b6e8b344cf02241cd1d | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xe7ee74aa4dbc1ef14c5a1ce360bbd420c12356d8a97b73af73e4548d0a7fbd5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | conference-usa-championship-game-winner | Will Louisiana Tech win the 2025 Conference USA Championship Game? | 79,950,172 | 79,950,172 |
5ef55d88ab1f47fd4b9a298704d38257331e2f2c | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xe4d5e63507b263cfd9fc15eba2bf612394cc2dde9f3760f26bfc782dcabcd37c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | yes | 1 | jap-san-sho-2025-12-06 | Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2025-12-06? | 79,955,848 | 79,955,848 |
2f995ece465be0145859cb4e5e0e1b50f13f7ef5 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xec3671216bca569a53d78f878a6f66cbcc7fb245894ef42949637e261a074639 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-denver-on-december-5-147 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be 40–41°F on December 5? | 79,959,179 | 79,959,179 |
23e80964e324bedc6a689f67da954692792e980e | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xbf99d2489339d92388eca32d8e5b773fbbd3995f6ee12e44543ca4e898950c0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | team liquid | 0.000038 | lol-ns-tl2-2025-12-06 | LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1) | 79,962,108 | 79,962,108 |
be27ea9d9f87c9ead6049b6683f8fc2b622391fc | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0x06e85eefcacbfe81a9e9997c58ed4e56dadd26b6109b1093fe57bf022ec65f1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | no | 1 | bl2-fck-dyn-2025-12-06 | Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-06? | 79,968,180 | 79,968,180 |
1db3aed77da16ea0a962b414370c15242bc04925 | 0x0d5aea1cb76060f9e9137dfe74b58f8ab00aa457 | 0xc7352644d82d1005d539cb3cd7ec56012e0de210add296e0adb3c569ab79c28e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? | Event: itc-ata-gen-2025-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-03? | Event: itc-ata-gen-202... | yes | 1 | bl2-boc-bie-2025-12-06 | Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-06? | 79,968,180 | 79,968,180 |
10810024f88d25127a65f65b50bfc6bfd3489d2b | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x7f50b7713f07b600ee023fcf92062b554349c59a6fb5ffd3b30cbc21c97c57b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series?
Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | 58,314,548 | 58,314,548 |
743f991c31a7d5ddb8cfffbe476270426c9a2700 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xe2761a02b2cb5dab64a9ac080ea75722bbf6b14daabfb3e7b950ebbf1abc3602 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Turkey win?
Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict J... | yes | 1 | 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Will Turkey win? | 58,348,009 | 58,348,009 |
8886589a42adadd1e19c40d3f36d4bc1127300fc | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x523aaf21d44e9f89e09759c19f8ccec5b9f7a847e5edb733c1006204d4e0be48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Portugal win?
Event: euro-20... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-portugal-vs-czechia | Will Portugal win? | 58,348,022 | 58,348,022 |
6e3cb0ad319e6312b709ea65c799ba769a8d7a44 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x00170a925d97ede2ef8ac1c2dc4bc176ee011482b35653c01ef354469d7c76d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Will Germany win? | 58,380,256 | 58,380,256 |
859782a9312af80adc0720563e41dc90e55ccc52 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xfc8aa052614e9b483dc411f2388bcc087db207ea1c4ab4a22e493eb26302b252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-denmark-vs-england | Will England win? | 58,420,289 | 58,420,289 |
7304517370407240bacaebf0ab55522d0151633e | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x258f20bcedf0164713463107b5ed3d056f666abc7171be14428162b2956e1c10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Will Austria win? | 58,460,287 | 58,460,287 |
7f85460c873aa12fbc245530805e2a44881cda25 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xf4e124a04d4d037415f26188a2b5b1a06ddabf49eefcc062c896c6d55944b935 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-albania-vs-spain | Will Spain win? | 58,591,159 | 58,591,159 |
25c9b5f94b436883c3ef28e5dc040c5d5ae2e935 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x22a86682ab2986d590704b08c8b752f48788b76a5ca67f71d35bf0cbf70e2883 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Will Germany win? | 58,591,169 | 58,591,169 |
9e36d68ff385666a754e6d07095a01d6f4c6bfd8 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xc5e7517d0cfd8d18d040fed6794083feba3b7de7032c233f17459b7e6af17bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Will Belgium win? | 58,660,267 | 58,660,267 |
8c315a7bcf1509266415bc91ec725ee3c014be00 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x9ab51964144a578b1657c72ca7aca1cd1108b5672816b177cc688e098eb2804b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-england-vs-slovenia | Will England win? | 58,660,275 | 58,660,275 |
83a4693071624ee7ff1b2ebdf7321699e1414957 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x2cb4e8fa1830cdff26db9dc2243172034e593a4f2ba6fa83fef4c5a4a3ab65e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | epl-ipswich-town-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat Ipswich Town? | 60,736,529 | 60,736,529 |
4fc63adaf3d8c9394537ce5df4737f11f96fa41b | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xd5177cf9fe2af672b1d8c91f1cfa70fcd6e0d7c886fff40d1092ff0e31c508bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | epl-bournemouth-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Bournemouth? | 61,844,301 | 61,844,301 |
a89845bff9f362dba984942b31e91ab019b70dd2 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x1d3fd64d3c331c44014f1f344cb97475591b44372e5541bfa53c2b2bbf767b0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | epl-tottenham-vs-arsenal | Will Tottenham vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 61,890,621 | 61,890,621 |
aaa9ac49e7954dff28aeeacbedf8a89914afecc7 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xe4156c411f0dd08491c5d5d8893ba554e8e8b0513a1c667c535a40a6719278b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | ucl-real-madrid-vs-vfb-stuttgart | Will Real Madrid beat VfB Stuttgart? | 61,963,698 | 61,963,698 |
f3d4085a3cadb613cbd94c0e7bf2ee547882565a | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x4ad59349cb2b1287b0051e0c62a35280a8e030aea82453f072d80b167d2c52bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-vs-girona | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Girona? | 62,005,479 | 62,005,479 |
2432a631a6ddfdbffe0861a091e85d9b3b4931fb | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x534583d7b9c175720dc8b0722b296104401c676629581d37e7c6babfa0177317 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Will the match between Feyenoord vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? | 62,045,281 | 62,045,281 |
c647abd6ba37528c2e1e8035effbdb7083c9f9de | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x88a93fcf27305efcb168f7b56e4870acc3271c6b1948009e2704977b3c83063d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | esl-counterstrike-champion-2024 | Will Natus Vincere win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | 62,178,682 | 62,178,682 |
d68d40085392e12bf19efe5432284965fecb6582 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xac955bd7d224399bb49a8d6b0811cdfff48a7e66cb4d5856d842e7b874ba46a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | epl-wolves-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat Wolves? | 62,415,260 | 62,415,260 |
20cbc6957a4be18d86e94b98399ca1c0d9083ec5 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x22340cb9a839501690b4e561173f04e8b331afc42dc9e91ec4dec42d68f2048d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner | Will Eternal Fire win IEM Rio 2024? | 62,837,776 | 62,837,776 |
ae456b97c1c6c75864bbfcdeba84424f05bd97c7 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x6f2d916aa0e6952e4682fd44be2f552b4f4f851313af14ccc901b1a0ff513c92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner | Will Heroic win IEM Rio 2024? | 63,030,132 | 63,030,132 |
751b6004182c831eb5bc998873d3b51ad7d14927 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xbf2867f50abd602fc37ce7592be2139865f5a2b836c1edcf52b21b5b1c604a8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Will Bournemouth vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 63,271,559 | 63,271,559 |
5d41a2caf3b0080d1115c73c9777b9fc1e36c9f0 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xb0800a2359e72319963230933927de69591856d3ea51369c51dd45f08e945335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | cs2-elisa-masters-espoo-2024-winner | Will HEROIC win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024? | 63,300,764 | 63,300,764 |
3057b89a7531ca8f196a96fa661640fb54695142 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x839354ea9ebc2d17b3e01354cb3585df4aa41b66b81e30540fd820621bc5bfdb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | cs2-esl-challenger-katowice-2024-winner | Will SAW win ESL Challenger Katowice 2024? | 63,581,767 | 63,581,767 |
2e19dcda40a9049e4a76f165b8825671450489fa | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x2bd18efe785cf24002cfa38a37413739062aa370499b3a5831d202e64596c426 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,622,408 | 63,622,408 |
2a1bac8b2c0cdddc9daba769e4cd043891122965 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x9ae18c9ef87b6835f69c905c6b2a241e40d9ebde7013a1ac100443a372c4c6f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | no | 1 | cs2-blast-premier-world-final-winner-2024 | Will Vitality win Blast Premier World Final 2024? | 63,834,986 | 63,834,986 |
8fb631df6e50c84ec70e1bddb93203005c91427a | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x51056a6d3f120811ecf772bdedbd16aec9da447e253869748c7146e6f4349c0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-benfica | Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? | 63,983,034 | 63,983,034 |
634184d0188fbb12580d2a2ad71427ccb09646c6 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x8b965c99a3c9a622596cf4e7898c3d567ffb49974ab5d8c317dc250f702e493a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | ucl-manchester-city-vs-feyenoord | Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord? | 64,782,890 | 64,782,890 |
ce6300841ecf1a41420625fd4238f4b094b2dadd | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x6943a152437f7cbbb7015c8af47719a38154b5415f3e5afce5a59c9e2bbb9b97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | ucl-dinamo-zagreb-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Dinamo Zagreb? | 64,823,004 | 64,823,004 |
29957bfecde0e65bbf66a329d7f2c411412fe742 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xa31fd909f90ad66b6a9339d4a3fddf299b4d720bcd318484bfb7898fa6f532e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | 65,109,263 | 65,109,263 |
58e7d1030558ad62b8b1b90b41bb2fa2d024054a | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xcab94731cfcdc78cbba150723ecbed922bf317db497cdcaf2b402329caf51b28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | ucl-atalanta-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? | 65,342,348 | 65,342,348 |
ed68a2cdb371dceafe001180c1065fd09def12a6 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x902ef0c73176bb65aad202fb94dd2d356bcfac9e913c5eb03b1405e6d71ee889 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jayson Tatum make the most 3-pointers in the 2024 NBA Finals series? | Event: most-3pts-made-nba-finals | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal... | yes | 1 | europa-league-viktoria-plzen-vs-manchester-united | Will Manchester United beat Viktoria Plzen? | 65,433,396 | 65,433,396 |
4300dca7524d3f5177100ad77191531d1eae0f3f | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xf194cec52cb848e1448b1914a899ff7abb9c170ecc2a23aa61f0e2fda9cbb10a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Turkey win? | Event: 2024-turkey-vs-georgia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
4. Quest... | no | 1 | epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Will Southampton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 65,546,574 | 65,546,574 |
99a011aad38a96670658d389ab9dcfff763728a8 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x44a05907fee293ff5d56784a7557cef778ad346255e26a300e70319ebe9c7467 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win? | Event: euro-2024-portugal-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-denmark-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
4... | no | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2024-12-21 | Will Aston Villa vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 65,792,715 | 65,792,715 |
8a29847c0ce14feba262aa9cbc71b84c241c5536 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x031543c613c6fabcd7602c39646859189a4f64cfb67dcaf0f05e97d23f064dcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-germany-vs-hungary | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-denmark-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
4. Qu... | no | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Will Manchester City vs. Everton end in a draw? | 65,976,233 | 65,976,233 |
9cbce4b6969d28e6761c1d79c2177c168e562d57 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x85fcec5cb5007bb00d3306c244b500011a04d4adf25e7044a59145d303986a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England win? | Event: euro-2024-denmark-vs-england | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-albania-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
4. Questi... | no | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Everton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 65,976,295 | 65,976,295 |
3f45de456970b8ea9c18e4e7a941f272082e03b0 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0xce3d52288b55c60c95da806a9b6e5c2c2dd054553546c8997af1dac67112d7f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Austria win? | Event: euro-2024-poland-vs-austria | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-albania-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
4. Qu... | no | 1 | epl-ars-ips-2024-12-27 | Will Arsenal vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 66,075,780 | 66,075,780 |
b6c91028e295150cdd062855481a2e3a0f5c68a4 | 0x0d64d511056f774e5d8eb9389f07ff21cf2074cf | 0x09d84fcbc816690a99e610170174052613cf4eb4e4b1715fd19b78c739fc2112 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win? | Event: euro-2024-albania-vs-spain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Germany win? | Event: euro-2024-switzerland-vs-germany | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win? | Event: euro-2024-ukraine-vs-belgium | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
4. ... | no | 1 | epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Will Manchester United vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | 66,132,186 | 66,132,186 |
bda8a2e0e3c389d7a3c24a8a4999395cd153a368 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x65f64f01c6160826a942a1278c6fa64a1c09dfbe85e418cecb7180692883f6d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | 74,933,426 | 74,933,426 |
b1ebdffef3e3a82ba401593cb0893fea368dc02f | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x4118c8d7cbeadfb74af55e302de2a2d7298a7434c750d03cc8826562989682a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | 74,933,530 | 74,933,530 |
fdff2a51415344626b2aff036391ea87074c1a2e | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0xcfc9e8dc2c5a0ff4563da165bb8001da9b1dacd7e9c2c57f0587691a04c57415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | 74,933,567 | 74,933,567 |
8ca0a5b6e254b884dd14c7fae40eb81b17c3795b | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x17b9196758c42e981d59a04071e0f240fe239aeb352e8026c3e041579d1af031 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116K on August 7 at 5PM ET? | 74,933,578 | 74,933,578 |
6528835f04b7667ad93c32a97bff0242b07aeea4 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x3110d6def60f58f9f6018ec27bfc399edd824001d309a8ef2b4a0b3361e7a51b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 8? | 74,970,019 | 74,970,019 |
f401f97812a0599e7d9195f1b7c83e9546cf049c | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x5d8122caa103a5f79d207a5401fbd1a70885ce04f4067e2963f29e8e5f22f94b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on August 8? | 74,970,019 | 74,970,019 |
24f1f12647c722f5e005c065041f289402d45f47 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x7f24c7e2fd29f1f5dba691dac58f5c4d448e4a6705a65d69b4fe750e2bb0f20f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 8? | 74,970,019 | 74,970,019 |
ec82dc6144c382c969eba3ba1b1a47dfaa46533a | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x97adfc1eeb69cc54fe605c91c71c2cb95f54008e1edbff28c2c47b99ba7d4518 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 8? | 74,970,019 | 74,970,019 |
9386bfbe6f2ed1cc0663a2f05204fc283375118d | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0xa181d37c7a981cf3cadb63038ffd1a8fb47a8999f94a535013380f38147f9227 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-august-8 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 8? | 74,970,019 | 74,970,019 |
e59e99ef654af17a6146b405acb15423fe6c08c0 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0xea0e8f0d4e028cb93ea9cd4afb3550bc9a0b742256d100f7d947b6e9c3f55263 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 8? | 74,970,019 | 74,970,019 |
7d35262bbbbadb41c1650b19ba0cda69d80729b9 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x3a80d322bc1acc368f15b64a192152a1d44580434ce7659c6a8f0ba5d10e1844 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on August 8 at 5PM ET? | 74,976,230 | 74,976,230 |
cb6911392d9db3aa625ca7f6dc83c3990bf389b7 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x632b1ace084bc0ad8b9cc66c2b336941bfb670b14c8d3ae212d4edfac91c3a1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on August 8 at 5PM ET? | 74,976,230 | 74,976,230 |
4cd30c618f7981fa276969015a6a39e7424d6f50 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x81d31617aaa6c1a7d3d855480ad5d12d228feacf71da63367bfdb6e16222246d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-august-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on August 8 at 5PM ET? | 74,976,230 | 74,976,230 |
ce2837defef5aea64d03729ae7076f71bc91577a | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0xbd351f706a79afcbfa9f41e3711c922dd50d52e2019373e72c839b2e658ff46d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-august-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3900 and $4000 on August 8 at 5PM ET? | 74,976,230 | 74,976,230 |
2b85bb5cd1f88f03092e1716ff822e8a39bef383 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0xcfb38c0155217d538bdd609c66db8832ea1e40b21e8b94eaa24bb637bb54931d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-august-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4000 on August 8 at 5PM ET? | 74,976,230 | 74,976,230 |
a36072f9bc0a02d3c0585d8795a9c9f3b679feac | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x137787c548de2f5365f171c406dc41f0bd5f711866f7cf3bcc8d2816f1a340fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 8? | 74,986,111 | 74,986,111 |
378b1d0f05a8f6e977ef2a5dbaf913e5b64b9834 | 0x0d6b24e41cb19fe3f9c09f1aecaa4ed160c3bce1 | 0x1c9d9cc2d7c560849e4ae08f89c0fb54fa162b81581f2c36e5c4094cad0d942a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-august-7-5pm-et | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-8 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 85°F or higher on August 8? | 74,986,111 | 74,986,111 |
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