sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
184f1e2bcd0341f902333037b42b6a59244f8a06 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x94db11d2f3d7508ae36589e92cb30b3c9d1032aa4a3b23f33d4940913ed5e035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will... | no | 1 | will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-before-august | Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? | 73,449,434 | 73,562,022 |
3ea76cd1b62541d7b43e422b3ff8b6aca2541504 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xe4a2b3d43921a62fd693cbaca54249feec7b52fdcd5c7dd8c809a38179c1cbb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.488418 | israel-strikes-iran-before-2026 | Israel strikes Iran before 2026? | 73,449,434 | 73,562,022 |
b890523897ba59192bfa6d070fc1a80c515f29f2 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.415262 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 73,449,434 | 73,655,248 |
bb6a7def4eddde35164a877ef404e5bffdcb69ea | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xf511fc5bf7aea547f7e33567e93b2c63f74bffbc0f0da79d7715cf5e27d16b6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.606425 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | 73,449,434 | 73,728,009 |
885c2e1d50b4a78acf7b3b2e1fdafd99307f614a | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x7035c84a7aef6d1cca690edf2755cc3fdaef2faef1be1e28ef9066072a50dcb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.002043 | which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-election | Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 73,449,434 | 73,803,597 |
a4c8fc5b4a225b6648131e6d15331041cbe21ebf | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xd627b2fcd48d7c6c36603c0c465c9907144b05693545b187b59663914240ff9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.527521 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15? | 73,449,434 | 74,950,306 |
8736916b099e3b35fde30e65b205d2ad427c46a4 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.030705 | nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | 73,449,434 | 75,351,073 |
3de2cf74a5de11d1ba4f9c8a60f2af8b1c455ae0 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x68a14da906e9e7cd029f77fcbf8abc7396c5923e14973751a94c99f6daa9d7b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.57921 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | 73,449,434 | 77,935,214 |
6963da18b43c6e50b02287ac95b354534f161f8b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 73,449,434 | 79,736,118 |
e51e401635022898890092fb45edba42235aa296 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.071839 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 73,449,434 | 79,975,107 |
19497f2f45d08346111319c3be32c948a00db259 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xa36c706c1f952952bb5cb62d99a18399d54cc04b0df736ecb223452fa8c7f65b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | perricard | 0.984814 | wimbledon-fritz-vs-perricard | Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Perricard | 73,449,435 | 73,527,060 |
b9bf39a6ebb9a9af0c05b5d42f4099d7db57381c | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xb82d5aec1ad294e21e835cee5ecf2f56ec40ddc925d7f30d6a7831d1679505c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 0.976914 | which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-election | Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | 73,449,435 | 73,803,597 |
c70f4e48425607d5bbaee2cc9d30189302f80949 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x9405db3cd3a5919f3bb34d5ca9abee7d0fee21d7ede6c39cbe8c8cc8a70046e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 0.295419 | will-russia-capture-yunakivka-before-august | Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August? | 73,449,435 | 74,264,358 |
d5c8f5527ca5299d11d614f25c8c55e770aa7273 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x985c2299ac7dbe5441a350d3f586d66d0b6375949429af56d6065a750ea5030e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | 73,449,435 | 77,935,216 |
6d61f70b94251dbe3f1ea08e414a1bf85784a24d | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.536076 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 73,449,435 | 79,975,106 |
bd5bd7830cd28e598e371c94d3266e123977c0dd | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 0.911989 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 73,449,435 | 79,975,107 |
f037745613ce29d84bbac01148548242b5bc3868 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 0.000018 | natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025 | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025? | 73,562,022 | 73,562,022 |
4a30224215254f0c77ec9030a892f25b359449d3 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x7071e0e0b80556b000f399a94e40600d84dd80e894d417afd4eea743eeb7fd18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.007564 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 73,562,022 | 73,562,022 |
3e0acabcc0f438e0206961688d96ed1818afd608 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xdf04f0771458711e2d19fb11e64f873480d451d9aee544146cceb29ea3bedcce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.431258 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | 73,562,022 | 73,562,022 |
702ab121b061dc338f4e65071a837e95139090c3 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x600c6599bdbf7077bd063238a1686cf2eecbdf637f78a8435c896a48910f6886 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 0.869135 | which-city-will-host-eurovision-2026 | Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026? | 73,655,248 | 73,655,248 |
dcf664bfbaa981fce715fedab3ecbe683d8db8e6 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x4c9ccd1404d105968de9b1ff3226fbafdc0b6e402a26bbcad3a84a1b62296783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | 73,655,248 | 78,833,155 |
16994daef01a64c516454ae56f17683359e6ef91 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x924efdc8795f4221f57c2b960a38aa00e0320a8a50000dc0ba118e1776a64ad2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.65541 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | 73,728,009 | 73,728,009 |
a4085879b28fb93f9aa44666054cace8ce9fc81a | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x13356a4d3b2db32ee981f2360bb1ffda9be07747b5561822ff7707a7c73569b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 1 | will-rachel-reeves-leave-starners-cabinet-by-july-15th-582 | Will Rachel Reeves leave Starner’s cabinet by July 15th? | 73,728,009 | 74,264,340 |
480e0fc4b1c24a6e042ad1fd4c13b1cc58e9c78c | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x1f78a02341c8993efc78cfea37699799951debfc9c195ae21ee73c40bd54a31d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 0.000005 | lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-by | Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? | 73,803,597 | 73,803,597 |
fa32a7429f4528ddafc5bc533aef267cfb8ec507 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x6dc5125685720ea000689b32611bc5e2d0fc216fe4cb838b18b5a20ff2c40432 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.678302 | lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-by | Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September? | 73,803,597 | 73,803,597 |
d89287540179cac885f711e37abb9626f7dfde60 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x6541a8761b97d252205e5934fb7f3312cd460cb1d07c722e0bbe3f8181ddbcb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 73,803,598 | 77,935,211 |
bf9987b3a1f90b33f31b8193a67657ed7c9915c7 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xd6502692a603a0d2ed9688cc3fb0c6bbc08a7b9109114dbb017353ff06d7fe0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.691209 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | 74,513,583 | 74,628,152 |
f3f4c504e046aeb73322ee2e5d1481382ff5072f | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x174095e1593bae3b4ddfe14e9d90ad7fe7572a8e92193e37ee2d9a3151f544fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.980874 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | 74,513,583 | 75,351,073 |
e2aeab6d8612733ae316e5347209c9ab5e1f3945 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xfef1327c8a6dc7cfa05d24032ccca677077f10d1563062e7a4b6a3824908f29e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Auger-Aliassime vs. Duckworth | Event: wimbledon-auger-aliassime-vs-duckworth | Choice: duckworth | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the US offic... | yes | 0.584957 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | 74,628,152 | 77,935,216 |
daca0caf703d53366d1988d6ddc9aa5fceeb7c72 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xa8c05e9288ce688482b62915c36434d8f68f945b824fa7ad859949bfab0583cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall before July? | Event: will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? | Event: will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 0.68554 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | 74,950,306 | 77,935,208 |
2a18705a1205248dc390560b10070c719db99d0a | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x93437d03a195e66bef80d55d51786cf5f7b08fde008a54400b97889ecd69f895 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? | Event: will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Israel strikes Iran before 2026? | Event: israel-strikes-iran-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4884183535853528
3. Q... | yes | 0.495991 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | 74,950,306 | 77,935,214 |
ada5580fdd5798dba12f24e0720dea7dc30cd676 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x0b16eb7741855ca3d4383fabb8b760c897c2165d603916497f484b87ba9826dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Israel strikes Iran before 2026? | Event: israel-strikes-iran-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4884183535853528
2. Question: Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.41526183474906136
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 0.01634 | largest-company-end-of-2025 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 74,950,306 | 79,975,106 |
c08ec79544d01edb756b56e6f26d074d4ac907fb | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x55f3e67284c734509cb16fd93e0cda784514d17a6d19637fa4e3bec3bb72ccbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.41526183474906136
2. Question: Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6064245686639991
3. Q... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-july | Will Donald Trump issue 8–10 executive orders in July? | 74,950,311 | 74,950,311 |
34f7458777917100eb187ec1f769bd54f8ffe1cd | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xc8761147389535d28583a71eab365841f36f1cc7ee689fbd32a384e3879a5b7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6064245686639991
2. Question: Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-cou... | yes | 0.651031 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? | 75,351,073 | 75,351,073 |
6ca81bbc47293539331630263fba3dc130773e1c | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x3e70b4e3bb485930443c3b32a6a596cfd43e00f581551c1b7626901f48291dda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0020430541551153896
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?... | yes | 0.501615 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | 75,351,073 | 77,935,208 |
cf40a039efe4edff2d77683ef7e672d76bff387a | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xa1d03e3a880d9b39e26afff50b779d7efe6fbbc9a3c9bd12c3ef34445dbac64c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5275214462228397
2. Question: Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0307... | yes | 0.851952 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | 75,351,073 | 77,935,212 |
0a40f0e542df65d80f843a88c308f5471e392199 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x1073cc3483263763397b853cb095ac8451f7e26b5a94231b5973c14bf6e7a95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Event: nobel-peace-prize-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.03070508178339214
2. Question: Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5792102634825168
3. Question: Wi... | no | 0.710725 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | 75,351,073 | 78,833,150 |
22bce91a1462bca180369eb3bb925b250d839831 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x9c177c932bac4e666ac4a7d1b9ebf2dcb198a5d7c47b082c6f4220f41341a3ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5792102634825168
2. Question: Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 0.068744 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,208 | 77,935,208 |
f397f1c3e53952f5bd1c971ebc8843ebb970a967 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xe8f18e0474b83d54ca5fa8f8689e4b8af580d8c61dbb8037729af690250ceda7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07183884216325719
3. Qu... | jaguars | 0 | nfl-la-jax-2025-10-19 | Rams vs. Jaguars | 77,935,208 | 77,935,208 |
a2b6c31ef6bcf448e8a029a865177097c9a073ae | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x56aa6bcf43ee201a210c15a26f7db769d58f8c6f5146a36ee26b63ac0934a05c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.07183884216325719
2. Question: Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Perricard | Event: wimbledon-fritz-vs-perricard | Choice: perricard | Confidence: 0.984813755733433
3. Question: ... | minnesota | 0 | cfb-nebr-minnst-2025-10-18 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota | 77,935,208 | 78,833,152 |
d616f1e987bd7b1b4b8534f6fddf34db43060aa5 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x2bec36785bc6b322234d2f42283695eea3c68632f458135dced2b67f02c19fdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Perricard | Event: wimbledon-fritz-vs-perricard | Choice: perricard | Confidence: 0.984813755733433
2. Question: Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-election ... | yes | 0.087291 | uef-wal-bel-2025-10-13 | Will Belgium win on 2025-10-13? | 77,935,208 | 78,833,154 |
879b568234961e5f8762d54a3b28774ce41d771c | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x278ed09748cc2021cdd583c0611b575125991156b646fc7e0b14ef62c198dd7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Event: which-party-gains-most-seats-in-japan-councillors-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9769140828613492
2. Question: Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August? | Event: will-russia-capture-y... | no | 0.301252 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,208 | 78,833,157 |
8d55f811b70377eb2d87b18a102fa02315007f1d | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x19a9dcb0bc2418ffa5dd3d6c0502a5a036fd3627fd6b5e7f47b4fbd27ef9dc61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August? | Event: will-russia-capture-yunakivka-before-august | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2954194403537165
2. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 6? | 77,935,211 | 77,935,211 |
6e7b824dd2a7bfdb5e0fec7b363223799e52809d | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x56070d053eb35039cef5ee9c8f9c2ce31bd45d542a08cf4fbf12ea25b3766d5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5360755516082495
3. Question: Will Zootopia... | no | 0 | ethereum-above-on-september-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 13? | 77,935,211 | 77,935,211 |
78afa76c4d38ee94d95c76e900178863b379245a | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x57ebf8c44681658feca51d1248432897d9bd5d358192f13eb19998551c83204d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5360755516082495
2. Question: Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9119892247531882
3. Ques... | yes | 0.821426 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? | 77,935,211 | 77,935,211 |
10525fef86866168af53d5fe5378efab00c01f40 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x79a1089c5fa2a0d85436c8bb5e2e8d233e7b0cee439b8e84a48f5abc2c37830a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9119892247531882
2. Question: NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025? | Event: natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.83192898798383e-05
... | yes | 0.43508 | solana-price-on-october-11 | Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 11? | 77,935,211 | 77,935,211 |
fadbc0d79b81cbbfd1aec4ef3aadd31bad7bf63b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xdfa2312f423f9b66b875e41c8472145f077a6a2e9efd2dbd44c17c98d1e1e796 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025? | Event: natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.83192898798383e-05
2. Question: Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-nethe... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 6? | 77,935,211 | 77,935,211 |
50436fca1b89966a12785d4ca5865ff3c3a85e3e | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xa1e39896a8bcfe5a52494ca1ec9a7263f0ebe70f832df58fe0185e23beb32c79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the JA21 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Event: which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.007564143103025285
2. Question: Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-cham... | no | 0.692308 | caf-eqg-lbr-2025-10-13 | Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-10-13? | 77,935,211 | 78,833,154 |
b6cbbeeb99f3bb0913ce75deca603c596d04a653 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xb58f0fd7bc6a0180fae9d206e5e97e70ef16c3eaf2c0e401484f56a870aa6769 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4312576986364083
2. Question: Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026? | Event: which-city-will-host-eurovision-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8691351016317317
3. Question: Will t... | no | 0 | solana-above-on-october-16 | Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 16? | 77,935,211 | 78,833,155 |
81e6eb95fb165dccc5c1cc9021a1c5f883f56780 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xf8920bfa2ea26de48e3de40bbfcb5530cde7df7cfe9c541dd2d72f19c13b8551 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026? | Event: which-city-will-host-eurovision-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.8691351016317317
2. Question: Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Atlanta Bra... | yes | 0.938728 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,211 | 78,833,157 |
da64b97218936628660433acf1717dccfb9888e5 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x0bc2846e0b611c3bb4050b7379a10bd29c9be35fc180686d20aa0e03fad0f0cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6554099944416679
3. Question: Will Rachel ... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-2 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 2? | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
124c6f02033a5332d141a756378fc04ef52c94ef | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x38663986e307a2eab66427bea609b19d4260a5edab9fbac6af39db1839654617 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6554099944416679
2. Question: Will Rachel Reeves leave Starner’s cabinet by July 15th? | Event: will-rachel-reeves-leave-starners-cabinet-by-july-15th-582 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 7? | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
d450c37c3fa1701e6bd31ba5a717d1fb29b5504b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x46f401348651078f17cdad0b5a794c54a76ededbeaa595312d7fd15b8d31933b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rachel Reeves leave Starner’s cabinet by July 15th? | Event: will-rachel-reeves-leave-starners-cabinet-by-july-15th-582 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? | Event: lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-by | Choice: n... | yes | 0.982742 | fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Will Uzbekistan vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
fd06b3e651f7a9769e5e8691514b9d260a8caf78 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x4b57de41d7c13202e70792dd6dcb52f0870f1a48a252b3cca0ba7956deda516f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? | Event: lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.962596655893255e-06
2. Question: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September? | Event: lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 6? | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
b90f2e52a3ae92a3ab5539f5456b00d64b51c377 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x4ce19c6c5d0a303e36fce9497ea4531f8f92f51dc13c75a3cd9bfbd9ce2eaff8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September? | Event: lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6783018389989361
2. Question: Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Co... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-13-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 13, 8AM ET | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
d842d2646bb508a68b2a72f0cad02d4a05ed2b2b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xc539be0da1e163a91a58a57abf4f863699f07400c9e07d42d5c29facfd62c678 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6912087430553425
3. Question: Will the... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-10-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3AM ET | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
be5b4d1b372104fa9acad6b7386e927573771e27 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xdcb56c8d81a21743cbe8ee0f6b19cbf63843b5c1a1ab6c0ea5ee8a1273bf96b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6912087430553425
2. Question: Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9808739011535974
3. Qu... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 7? | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
33e5f9ddcadf69908a9c243b2e347223a5ed6613 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xfd4170bdec7516a4457b77327281688ec3c50d877c76554d9b7d84407ebf485d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9808739011535974
2. Question: Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5849567317968393
3. Que... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 5? | 77,935,212 | 77,935,212 |
0c3bc3841dba558c69e8fe028626f84b43ab903b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x3e9ba07f8add6457e0a7d89b6a00d04fe10dcf125b7d623a0adb2f32ee5b0052 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.5849567317968393
2. Question: Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6855401336448871
3. Question... | golden knights | 0 | nhl-las-sj-2025-10-09 | Golden Knights vs. Sharks | 77,935,212 | 78,833,149 |
91f1befa99f9a17c6790b4f767235aea07facb2b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x920641504e7354a89ea3003301bf86c4e46fdbe44387f2df4e357307348555ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6855401336448871
2. Question: Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4959906977934844
3. Ques... | no | 0 | solana-above-on-october-16 | Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 16? | 77,935,214 | 77,935,214 |
4ea40216fd8cf53a4a737cca3dd03091bd0f649a | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xaf510a1fb96a5abf23d12151c03aa17af3c7166d783f48e05c96ef37bd7ef117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.4959906977934844
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.998878 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,214 | 77,935,214 |
24b4f4712fa8f730009444741f6fe57db2e12437 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xb201420399e798fffa898c2ccca18ebbd80fe5a0438f860c0eccf274dd89fa3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.016339572093372973
2. Question: Will Donald Trump issue 8–10 executive orders in July? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-july | ... | yes | 0.796006 | bitcoin-price-on-october-8 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October 8? | 77,935,214 | 77,935,214 |
2dff1527c10b8291d7e92e748c32f8cf20593be8 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xbdcebefff236af370cab6a6a56f9b920b083ea077d28e5dad1685e80cca93ae7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump issue 8–10 executive orders in July? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6510309177674625... | nongshim red force | 0 | lol-wb-ns-2025-10-10 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) | 77,935,214 | 77,935,214 |
c4a0a32cc63704fd0e1071d29de17d95f3f92f7f | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xbdf2ece538d1f74cbdee7f29a9c60da4e9418b3066a991f1a2572bb00ad60efd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6510309177674625
2. Question: Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.501614599128438
3. Question: ... | yes | 0.999129 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,214 | 77,935,214 |
9fe96d35cec8cdb366bc478a10dba89b7900017b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x85a859b7e8c653ccb53f1b8673dcb90113d37338232a1ee1dd1cede237265961 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.501614599128438
2. Question: Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8519518084465971
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 0.664538 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,214 | 78,833,156 |
8959f3b44aded0a683af8249b794f012d6d7c245 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x55d7e83669be3304ce171ec54b3409dc0f13137813843fdd1de6af9919ccb397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8519518084465971
2. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.710725236153711
3. Questi... | yes | 0.833667 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | 77,935,216 | 77,935,216 |
4979edf4196259a630321647ef82de1355a37829 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x996df5bfa70f2f7deaae459c83fb7ef432777289028b366d7c944718dcafe626 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.710725236153711
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 0.618928 | will-hamas-release-any-more-hostages-by-october-31-318 | Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? | 77,935,216 | 77,935,216 |
d100a9fa09ae345014d46930ea543fe4c990ebfc | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xfa69bd1b1271a5ff0d800fad076f6ffc4c0cc88ea67c1042313616728c3b7dd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06874442811307516
2. Question: Rams vs. Jaguars | Event: nfl-la-jax-2025-10-19 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nebraska Cor... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 7? | 77,935,216 | 78,833,152 |
e235742385d6c634cf47dd42dcc5c478da54a693 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x08d25973bd588f0d22d38abc4a14507693cfdde9b379225a50aed2767989ba90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rams vs. Jaguars | Event: nfl-la-jax-2025-10-19 | Choice: jaguars | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota | Event: cfb-nebr-minnst-2025-10-18 | Choice: minnesota | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-wal-bel-2025-10-13 | Choice: ... | yes | 0.223664 | bitcoin-price-on-november-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on November 4? | 78,833,149 | 78,833,149 |
d3a4580bc2ae92e51ef01ce9d28dd3c2f1111032 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x91c9d26a1c48836d4889fca4d95d10c3708200df8f1caf911433fec8f479e83b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota | Event: cfb-nebr-minnst-2025-10-18 | Choice: minnesota | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-wal-bel-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.08729094552443195
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from Octobe... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-5 | Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 5? | 78,833,150 | 78,833,150 |
3552f38859f8b23c856f7f6683b845d390aeb7fd | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xb0e731c8caf8a5ded1a22c6066dcdb4b0b27c74222518cd4a3e2095cffe7adf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium win on 2025-10-13? | Event: uef-wal-bel-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.08729094552443195
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.3012524748698251... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 5? | 78,833,150 | 78,833,150 |
d015462481963d45750be6a184e4c8f91a06bdff | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xe4a482d12d02fb8eee13411044e23907a280e4dec8a67c9924bf5a6287067420 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.30125247486982515
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Choice: no | C... | yes | 0.713512 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Qairat FK end in a draw? | 78,833,150 | 78,833,150 |
db9f0509ea50aee43561eb2eed3895623660497b | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xf23a122c909677de97fc41002f5c46e32f76ce0b1352a16c646530c8d39aad66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-september-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the Ci... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 4? | 78,833,150 | 78,833,150 |
063088e0043b88483a77e9b181d43af9c6751fad | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xf3a7eabbfc1d68e4659f8539a17e6259802f853c3b2211192c8c4dc5d152732d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 13? | Event: ethereum-above-on-september-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8214261996276147
3. Question: W... | yes | 0.5952 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? | 78,833,150 | 78,833,150 |
3c84e9310497fce55223e109ccf23a538a01c8bf | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xbef6a281d421d9318f9c1852020b5c3582917e1fe701ad989618a0b095522b52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? | Event: world-series-champion-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8214261996276147
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 11? | Event: solana-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.43507972665148... | no | 1 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? | 78,833,152 | 78,833,152 |
f4af222753a1da7b15d9cfb262003565ccd98442 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xdee850a01c89e60450007c776cadfc16e0068a863826a36e925a9a21a9ec902c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 11? | Event: solana-price-on-october-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.43507972665148065
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5? | 78,833,152 | 78,833,152 |
0cb1ac1c9538b96d30afae7d08886c36d6b533cc | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x1b6fe4d4505b05aa89cf6249f7908f11fe2431d42e5946b70480623f132339cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-10-13? | Event: caf-eqg-lbr-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6923076923076923
3. Question: Will the price of Sola... | yes | 0.139287 | bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 5? | 78,833,154 | 78,833,154 |
42d9be42c0d1d61dec11be7932265868f95d8c3a | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x9bb42980270441f21693ab99373e5bf6bb7e4fc3c1bbb4d7ac4476e40fb538f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-10-13? | Event: caf-eqg-lbr-2025-10-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6923076923076923
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 16? | Event: solana-above-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-25... | yes | 0.967827 | bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November 5? | 78,833,154 | 78,833,154 |
7449c808794a3b7ae750c30e4a9c109a2231d2d9 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xc530b98c679aeaad2509088a5f2758e11e39259d8be6c897a15763fb0bfbbcc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $190 on October 16? | Event: solana-above-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.938727... | no | 1 | caf-gui-alg-2025-09-08 | Will Algeria win on 2025-09-08? | 78,833,154 | 78,833,154 |
27aef4ea84acaa00ba2f68ca15dcfaaf7ced758f | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x9436a49b66ed16805c8c403408e28b429e80592ea0972f871a4990a64b2b486d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9387276171335003
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 2? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-2 | Choice: no | C... | no | 0.700527 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-november-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 9? | 78,833,155 | 78,833,155 |
2ede332d67c587b1bf7f9eeee4bb05479e31b557 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x8d3b0c55b590786ca889e68a0005ea626f5f8b856e1de0d353f3572168467c04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 2? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Uzbekistan v... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,833,156 | 78,833,156 |
ce0b931849b7636f6c730fb8bd8f9c47ee5347cb | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xbf385d37f6880a1171469d42d0f5e45aec63a54144f27ddbd6b90076379cf6ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Uzbekistan vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9827415132905044
3. Question: Will the price of Bi... | no | 0.717452 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,833,156 | 78,833,156 |
064f0fdd0754b39b45d2755bae7673ad48c067d8 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xe76e95073201f88e3d07d782dc42b6354a07f34ed829c37db2a62a26c04c98fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Uzbekistan vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Event: fif-uzb-ury-2025-10-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9827415132905044
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Oct... | yes | 0.037295 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-netherlands-election | Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | 78,833,156 | 78,833,156 |
25c147bf1816ea8b5b6df26c1a1fbebae832fb0e | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xf1585f89934a9bc3e8c309137c71a42920b5820e016fbecede059485dafb0e76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 6? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 13, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-13-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10... | yes | 0.992508 | ucl-ath-qar-2025-10-22 | Will Athletic Club vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? | 78,833,156 | 78,833,156 |
924d3c4e5e7def364fd406f90bc61e1ee5e174aa | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x7272ac22a6fb80c349170b2cb0fa26b3ed970dfd4e4a3a7801b9eb9e4d454902 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 13, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-13-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-10-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $1... | no | 0.997279 | bank-of-canada-decision-in-october | Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting? | 78,833,157 | 78,833,157 |
37ee92c590ca85ac69c18056d0e39534d3c2c4d6 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xe84fe1887a4b01ad9bd837a4a35d7ea540110af706f5c4010192ab9ddde144ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-10-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitco... | no | 1 | bank-of-canada-decision-in-october | Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting? | 78,833,157 | 78,833,157 |
6a7916aaa2e03d104e23dbead2242a177b85f7b9 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x76e43e25cf62aa955fbc4c2b76c95059fd030f0ade9f862d85e04ec6bc362747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Golden Knights vs... | no | 0 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12? | 79,215,135 | 79,215,135 |
c4ca80674e2cca8f112e72d4b2341717ca27d7d4 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x8aaf2230205da6e418cfa9f48e0af5230f1b0eea338de06ca558d50361576235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 5? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Golden Knights vs. Sharks | Event: nhl-las-sj-2025-10-09 | Choice: golden knights | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $170 on ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-10-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5PM ET | 79,215,135 | 79,215,135 |
2f9a3703bd32c8a2f205b48f3c9b505ff63d8ef1 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xc7061a1ae4ff1ff7d85e6676a914dd7bd29c90ac933ecb24b69fc4c969d737a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Golden Knights vs. Sharks | Event: nhl-las-sj-2025-10-09 | Choice: golden knights | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 16? | Event: solana-above-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from Octobe... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,215,135 | 79,215,135 |
09536234de8ac1dd73bf5fc61852a4c133d456f8 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xdf8a9c0df3fe74efea57f0cdabd9e0e95102e0c90b1fcd5775b884534667a379 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 16? | Event: solana-above-on-october-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.998877... | clippers | 0 | nba-den-lac-2025-11-12 | Nuggets vs. Clippers | 79,215,135 | 79,215,135 |
9df512245a17ec0441b0430fd1bb0927cc5c0e33 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xf510d7a7fb846dd0a78299a0136ddf1216222af2ff3fc609ba305f47197db739 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9988777455932377
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-8 |... | no | 0.086485 | bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20? | 79,215,135 | 79,736,118 |
d1437e7ab161b364c3252dd564a8d4b79028f817 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x971d2fcd67c6fe49a20acd14ed305697f3cf96083d1b9272f9fade8e6101569f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October 8? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-october-8 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7960060174748843
2. Question: LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) | Event: lol-wb-ns-2025-10-10 | Choice: nongshim red force | Confidence: 0.0
3... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-november-20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20? | 79,215,135 | 79,736,187 |
004f4711867aaaecd703e86b0bb77e2384daa6a0 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x9394970668d3b02407a287d4ef8e32d35d099551ec22205608d2ad1364cf201a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) | Event: lol-wb-ns-2025-10-10 | Choice: nongshim red force | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9991... | ducks | 0 | nhl-utah-ana-2025-11-17 | Utah vs. Ducks | 79,215,135 | 79,736,189 |
7665ec7fe8b2d6dc12a85fcc85243b04b167d6d9 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x306c15b1023a8f7e6a83b6a7940b6ec29f0fb037fd46512c67c3628d3099ef1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9991289810424718
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-1... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,215,136 | 79,215,136 |
892a84b51060e808b40df49a28997fe8d1b6bfd0 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x3a3cd2d3d7b61134769d501fd2ce76df1667b3210f8e23c1d09a556981d101bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6645382300490549
2. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-1... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-november-11-5am-et | XRP Up or Down - November 11, 5AM ET | 79,215,136 | 79,215,136 |
b9d5406a322f1836b06fc99e24fce04d23bf7316 | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x487cc725c480313129d477b51b248ba84480aee5de3aa8428df10acc2aa63fee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-october-14-october-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.833666597368006
2. Question: Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? | Event: will-hamas-release-any-more-hostages-by-october-31... | no | 0 | will-israel-strike-gaza-on-379 | Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15? | 79,215,136 | 79,215,136 |
204b1cfe49bd0f02628eb890b8b34e1f1a44382d | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x6f58e3fa41a1606bf435f16d40bf447f39bce09b6ae8b9f83f77e8bb8afa2744 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? | Event: will-hamas-release-any-more-hostages-by-october-31-318 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6189275687612236
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Every Arab" during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,215,136 | 79,215,136 |
7314ef766afb5ff11f2dc6bbbb84db15f70a225f | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xafe676f5cff426d3451a52078460a3827afcd5e75323c2713ef01915dd45278d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 7? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on November 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.22366411862393107
3. Ques... | no | 0 | what-will-trump-say-during-saudi-pm-events-on-november-18 | Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during Saudi PM events on November 18? | 79,215,136 | 79,215,136 |
4ce7b528c74010c566afe6560ef50b0a4f2fd57c | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0xeacbbaddba7669aa183f923d2f5f974a290bb46d37856ded61a36c726f0bed9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106,000 on November 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.22366411862393107
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 5? | Event: solana-price-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-november-10 | Bitcoin Up or Down on November 10? | 79,215,136 | 79,215,136 |
69a5f9eeb09697f960c0b76e2fb3e06456e209cb | 0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124 | 0x8142372032edc305747f62bd9b4bcaa94c758d975349ef150fa4bdfe5828e669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 5? | Event: solana-price-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 5? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-november-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 0.046154 | solana-price-on-november-18 | Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on November 18? | 79,215,136 | 79,736,190 |
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