sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b3cdc18d7ef6321534d19931409fd3bef7b2e8c3 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0x2f158da91342aa36b0d3cf443b779a746f50de2e6ba37d6c7efe24dc938b0588 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-ast-new-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-lee-new-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Cho... | no | 1 | golf-ryder-cup-winner | Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? | 77,037,582 | 77,037,582 |
52facd06f763adc273ded5aee9de6ef0793ffe65 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0x8a65d6d3a472606b167bfa8544faba42a29616afb086884b883127955d3564ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-ast-new-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-lee-new-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Cho... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo-rbs-2025-10-02 | Will Lyon win on 2025-10-02? | 77,207,974 | 77,207,974 |
5c172b35ef43a47a47e1f661de4583d46ab7dcda | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0xe1405378d5468f895334b9b38f44058dd9769524d13b85b489d40bdb2f743cc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-ast-new-2025-08-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-lee-new-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Cho... | no | 1 | uel-rom-lil-2025-10-02 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-02? | 77,207,974 | 77,207,974 |
a08bc480a80aec23e839d35ae297b9ac1a799ee2 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0x36a22a727d60714a764e1b238b3ec47cd6010ded3e5dba45b4a458de3d7f2a3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-lee-new-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? | Event: epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | fl1-met-olm-2025-10-04 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-04? | 77,270,711 | 77,270,711 |
3701f54156888e95454447e73a44298dc0ea8ec8 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0xd3c36efd820875f3f4706ed80e12100e62f4e90dafe57749c211b66d6773bf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-tot-bou-2025-08-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? | Event: epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-gen-juv-2025-08-31 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sun-2025-10-04 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? | 77,270,711 | 77,270,711 |
71756495b8d0496d86e7c35d68a747b6eff18a36 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0xf604eceef5bf3b13fa5abe90664ebe0e95fd62d65ba565381d8917d2337efa97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? | Event: epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-gen-juv-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09090909090909091
3. Question: Will Angers SCO vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? | ... | no | 0 | epl-che-liv-2025-10-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-04? | 77,270,711 | 77,270,711 |
0569e4785f1d08187d44b7d4fb5b772531619511 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0x7bd74cfb79ea52738919784fd57da0ac8eb1adf970da74913ad43f3fa0b4d31d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-08-31? | Event: sea-gen-juv-2025-08-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.09090909090909091
2. Question: Will Angers SCO vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? | Event: fl1-ang-ren-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? | E... | no | 1 | fl1-lyo-tou-2025-10-05 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-05? | 77,301,335 | 77,301,335 |
62d9ef258bc180a205cdb4a5608613408d6c13c8 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0xf0fbb16e5872608c2ad814e7f6cf741b6f504ef88207fe21b44c961471d829c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angers SCO vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? | Event: fl1-ang-ren-2025-08-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-kvx-swe-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-kvx-swe-2... | no | 1 | epl-eve-cry-2025-10-05 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-05? | 77,301,335 | 77,301,335 |
3662c30b889d23a5b831606028fa35f96135d7e7 | 0x00f7cd432b127dab1bffd6d54701f4eb88b64476 | 0xab54e0e177d60a542c1276973ceb7c42af530ea0fe78bbe3c7953714eb87d1a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-kvx-swe-2025-09-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08? | Event: uef-kvx-swe-2025-09-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? | Event: uef-cyp-rom-2025-09-09 | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | 77,536,844 | 77,536,844 |
bacaa22cc95ad3611f9ded14bd8f4ca7ea530180 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x070aa1e9052ec480b9bfd05bc23ab5ce64c84713e8dceded4c313c6f4669e93e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke?
Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | 60,111,692 | 60,111,692 |
1916bb812435aa5332824eac43117e1212fa3ca6 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xadd24347a8646fdab86cb109f067468ad5cb5228900148927d5e60e8041d1843 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle?
Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner
Predict the user's choice an... | no | 1 | 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | 60,111,692 | 60,111,692 |
2e1cfc7854aa9f5f0e0ecf5af493f400e42e2933 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xd7b18d8511d5949eba70ec2adf4588c530e6d6ce0a0c5e1621967e756424f65c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target m... | no | 1 | 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Will Josh Matheny (USA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | 60,111,692 | 60,111,692 |
155975f4902aed340c18d9adb99b4fbef8568017 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x0750aafbf53aed1a88aa46dd2faa45e285229b9eb5187c0ae1530e576426bb1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Lani Pallister (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | 60,200,005 | 60,200,005 |
733c7d91eae31170bbd83f3771121c4fa142cd3d | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x3316ec719eabfca1bcb071e6a184abbdc1aaf7c6cb857e736e5a8dfcb6d9d81a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | 800m-freestyle-w-gold-medal-winner | Will Simona Quadarella (ITA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle? | 60,200,005 | 60,200,005 |
ed6106a5f79357bc6c238ccf41fd960cedb393bb | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xe40a8d3f667f9880e5afcfc8d25d58078308fcbf5f9dd241dfc3eb20cdf5bd50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | paris-olympics-which-country-wins-most-gold-medals | France wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | 61,548,481 | 61,548,481 |
de5fefccfe2eb8f322bb9ac92847ed327a334962 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x1cfe4c0d72f97d676ad951374a8c527f28aef0e6adf682aca5f85da72d102938 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | us-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open? | 61,573,386 | 61,573,386 |
066725bf36a578e7735f56465762c558311da0e0 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x4040d477a31d9bc9c3a65399a1dfd8e05558d17fd4d330c9a9da10a03ec4c743 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | ucl-real-madrid-vs-vfb-stuttgart | Will Real Madrid vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? | 62,102,657 | 62,102,657 |
e20b2b238b23310d478e58d925601fc9bc6babe5 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x5ab496a40867f6a4eebd090c0bc15a918885d09cbc8c544a9b26c667fcf6f38a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | epl-southampton-vs-ipswich-town | Will Ipswich Town beat Southampton? | 62,380,888 | 62,380,888 |
02f48fa184fb188448e421c99812603119cff2ea | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xc202c661d46577fe618c828484a1c33ebf6f3e7e3b79b5ada080a1da6d4d2604 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-sept-20-27 | Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? | 62,380,888 | 62,380,888 |
cb23825816e4139621d824f7cb846c3840c84b43 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x3788e5ad3a0c78e0b3dc42ff2d4dfa64c9403e230151e2a2fa65d491d3dadc6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will another company be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,821,447 | 62,821,447 |
acf96a4800a1359019677a878bd1072500d70633 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x954055d8d49353580253c80b315fd3108e59a33c2c6dab45da06f428e6dd9f0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | world-series-champion-2024 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the World Series? | 62,821,447 | 62,821,447 |
35ced2ac7110fa8b1541739ff2e6220a89cba086 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x50f2f68bdbb073f682c429cddaaee7f1685d6df1f04d66becf270c56fb5ee42c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | israel-military-response-against-iran-when | Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday? | 63,353,643 | 63,353,643 |
a464a8a554355ddda2214ffd8b8c810d95c1d4c3 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xda26b22adcc6ec6f3cf1dd596f3624ccaf8752f19736515c6ae7ed9f6c123566 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | cs2-iem-rio-2024-winner | Will another team win IEM Rio 2024? | 63,353,643 | 63,353,643 |
63ffd8205f965410454913a059cda4daf030ec9f | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x1042bcfd2221c943d97fd07f170ad97eef984e6be64e785845249b41b5565acc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | mozambique-presidential-election-winner | Will Daniel Chapo win the Mozambican presidential election? | 63,715,612 | 63,715,612 |
fd3dc4f886471d4e1a999a18c2e6329fd07ad65f | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x304d51387ba144ce767972b037a1fcdefd67010e0d6fbd5d5c685298ff1b4c6d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | ballon-dor-winner | Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d’Or? | 63,715,612 | 63,715,612 |
5be7c1ca4eeb8b52001b12071e6ae63d3180a43f | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x3c9a94239a10378f05d313e73734b77f5976ca24fb65711cc86c99d3800a5013 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | porto-alegre-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? | 63,715,612 | 63,715,612 |
6367f9f3338298b3b700f0b8e159d66ecd81930d | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x65a43d0a63b57427ee497da000c382ba0a33652901d1d59b022a604b0f5da5cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | fortaleza-mayoral-election-2024 | Will another candidate win the 2024 Fortaleza mayoral election? | 63,715,612 | 63,715,612 |
e1ce4fc5989209a302dd7f03077707502cdaca97 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x9fc36bb7895236ab0dc8424663d986e79cfd64068258da62e631c7bc9d4c4955 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | so-paulo-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | 63,715,612 | 63,715,612 |
9446810a15ee80d397a70958e202bdcb0cf647d5 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 64,040,940 | 64,040,940 |
2a1b0a23986a1f0ba013cadee15f913f3a98e431 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x48d9592282cb36a3e5419c1da1c89c6c57998b1f50353855870f30b1e0a200fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ars-2024-11-02 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? | 64,040,940 | 64,040,940 |
e852760043d5a3a1eeae08e36a0f015a7ceaa609 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x55c551896c10a74861f2fd88b4f928694310114704cc74b29b9760d1156cade6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,040,940 | 64,040,940 |
1f4d9c0e0cc9435a56febac7937797c5e7267ace | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x6518eead2e593a1f858a943f2dbc6760023b43ca520bd5dedaf2fcd9b4b21d89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | north-carolina-governor-election-winner | Will a candidate from another party win North Carolina Governor Election? | 64,040,940 | 64,040,940 |
67d0660b4a844259e85f443dec65743b117b4147 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xfa5a7ff654fb16fbbba2891bb08888d7b876581fed0e09c108919a8ec9732f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 64,040,940 | 64,040,940 |
b44893ad0513ceb50cbdeaa693d4cc6d919b4dda | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xfe7d8d88ba361a47853735fd80825dbe00a0b7912b8257725d02f7123c4e2411 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | nebraska-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election? | 64,040,940 | 64,040,940 |
b3a3638c4c0d3b37949e4a127c3d8b8db4b0b26c | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xc1a4830eef6f60d9e0f05ecb5aa81b11d7d361e1a869c0138219840af849a986 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | pennsylvania-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? | 64,725,384 | 64,725,384 |
cc75b45fe10a355e5a971c6516eaef9bd1a9335b | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x6c661a448ce62286d3f3f529e93d00d97e8490190802cccce32ad29163086307 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 66,897,141 | 66,897,141 |
405a7b33de9e19fff293ec42813d7848d60162c3 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 67,690,032 | 67,690,032 |
514d1c0b3a2c4ce96e4bb6493fe7c88604846478 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0xd6c22daa78afa38f19e23ca808052938cfa9388db1b628145587a80c47e6c733 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | nyc-mayor-dem-primary-1st-round-winner | Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary? | 76,511,384 | 76,511,384 |
c94211f623642c8dd7c4e23c64ed5f2ea43a5320 | 0x00f9eb68e524bda283d916f5b3fef73dff29213e | 0x1747a5c2c9e74c6866481c9d5cea26a994a00278d9a40f6e6b22c0624f471ac3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another athlete win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke? | Event: 200m-breaststroke-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chris Guiliano (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Freestyle? | Event: 100m-freestyle-m-gold-medal-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16? | 76,561,385 | 76,561,385 |
bccec201fa8b1638001c0f389ffae82130bb90ec | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x4b87cba72865218e48cbe7c0ebf4f878132a2014e4507693aef2a84304562679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | 67,187,823 | 67,187,823 |
5e24a00ea5733c939c7d12be2c42418f4eee81ca | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x04e07c6085d96ecc1ac7568d6cb640f09e4d300a25afc763b67f15d8f2c8597c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025
Predict the... | yes | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | 67,375,133 | 67,375,135 |
0eddbc2dc23857a1cdc0396a2a1bc74c04923a87 | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x10bb455936cf8f22777bdb8d3a1b97760cae2215d60c15001c5d252c0f26478e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
352a6cc8698a7e93deea6cc09edca5d04c7dc9e7 | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x2e902560e7751b52d4476446d503f88b232677703759288949596016dd3fa4e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Will Robert Giuffra be Trump's Attorney General? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
03273f3645c97d11abdc0ef2c4dc08b1969e30fc | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x56076dc8839569ac666199597f7da15354a477eb6557b27b390e412c7639cccb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | next-saints-head-coach-24-25 | Will the Saints hire Mike McCarthy as their next head coach? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
da6758937f5753d81a7992de496c8e7c35a227a4 | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x5dbbf4cbb4cbca7c5967bfe92c0bd1667ac508fecb1e548c01def1a8cb43ea53 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
3086158e8489dc33d93c5a279e4b023635f65f08 | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x6e4a56d8073645a86354e47f82a70f8ccc1881cbdcb54e0a32fbebb954f2ce9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
634e73addd7227e5774210dbd6d94852f570b08d | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0x9a303e2020f2ddf40ed65e1168cc1d5ca9a76490bca5d958eda669dccb1253d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secretary | Will Bobby Jindal be Trump's HHS Secretary? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
d47aa40e665f9f830a0ba56495e85150414af886 | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0xa61319070d5e289c1cfd354f330c431215fa81584ed3ddcb30d2f7b70b5af42e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secretary | Will Brian Blase be Trump's HHS Secretary? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
2e1274fe66d80fbc050a6c1ec751513918ff0e6a | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0xb15ee59c1d5a80f8976b191ccc4305738aae2c72c7c9b49d2d47a32332594f15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secretary | Will Eric Hargan be Trump's HHS Secretary? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
51fc402d5e869d66f7322369893fc30e77519499 | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0xb29b1b9376406d012bd32716e2bb73c79b71083dd94d984c68988091fa3bf556 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | next-saints-head-coach-24-25 | Will the Saints hire Jon Gruden as their next head coach? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
90be4f1e7a4c86ed928aac582e485f8439bde9ae | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0xc0138210c3219d100d3ad2cb1082a6767f32817515e95221fa954790e530ce77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-attorney-general | Will Ken Paxton be Trump's Attorney General? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
30b140cc75be2e186615c58305c9b3619c055f84 | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0xcf93cd8279503d3fcd3a139b8e4d2dd5e6a119be8e4f76bf1638963d7c353a17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-lix-first-touchdown-scorer | Will JuJu Smith-Schuster score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
74ea9823f99f4544a286210b6edeae1dd70b5e2f | 0x01617db2bfb8eea1f804fad7ed5666c0b7951839 | 0xdeee297083dfaaffa9f6b746316ef95bcb3dd82b90c74b252b89b4e584021c0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-trumps-hhs-secretary | Will Paul Mango be Trump's HHS Secretary? | 71,436,863 | 71,436,863 |
3192b3a07b9b427bb2b6b5bbf4cd98e2e834043f | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0xc27d074ce2dd90beb2fd13526137a0986420721cbe59efbacced0d830093a7ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Belgium beat Italy?
Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Will Belgium beat Italy? | 64,332,447 | 64,332,447 |
4c93b66d0864bc634e36deb6c111ad1ba810b9cd | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0xb41303fef1fad2465522ed3d9a0d26d7593733e3b567d7888b981056b33865df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?
Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. ... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | 64,352,658 | 64,352,658 |
b955d6c46e3461c3c57309b72f95773b934fc16f | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x1d16131930b15b5a89218afedd908ed30cc7fe67d29295d33e459ed2bd15370e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Alexander Zve... | yes | 1 | atp-finals-winner | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | 64,372,103 | 64,372,103 |
3828d02b63dbaddde38c2ab7c5deca3e37a8a614 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x5232b8ca33acb780f9e4713b98235c3dfb147bb3ab1ea4a8ba358aaffaaa96d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2024-11-23 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? | 64,651,769 | 64,651,769 |
4a4f15d85e6670f665510921f45475e0ca4e7e14 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x66c863e417eb08c8532fab32e948c9744570dc867293abc7f24fd5e6ecdec463 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | no | 1 | mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? | 64,966,592 | 64,966,592 |
3b8fa5c07d7f21339cf7dc17d97dbaaf6d1f00a1 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0xc662971037e1e9bd07ca8558484854d42ecd3032c3a1a35b4e573a5b2a119063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | yes | 1 | ufc-318-holloway-vs-poirier-3-method-of-win | UFC 318: Will Holloway win by KO/TKO/DQ? | 74,439,222 | 74,439,222 |
c39501f85890cf9bd0c82c59ce711f8a1f099305 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x49537299aa1d92f680a2d1cb52b3cb78c724377ee2089ecd178580ecda9f1aa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on July 28? | 74,591,755 | 74,591,755 |
7c486efc4007e9a29067b6a6de86f73a3a140900 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x4ffca6d2d7918519dd88b9827dac20b254a3ca37dfaa3bc00e9b4e466215c816 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-6-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 6AM ET | 74,866,810 | 74,866,810 |
69a9f32f7bf5492edeedbf24b1f4242043edb548 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x8052bd855f4cd1a19975cd34826aaa836aa3befd0277a0d7777f89c91f576e94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 6AM ET | 74,866,834 | 74,866,834 |
b68b264961b9894ca146175d7d604d8a48db9acc | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x1d26bbe1bf68a9abcee9530e78b610fe0756c8c217599977f05fbbe54177c16c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-6-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ET | 74,880,437 | 74,880,437 |
b6b7611ffc24dc88039c7982bb8da2ac2a5e5fd0 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x94e7da094220456c6c45b46de7395edc18727eb6eb78fb3b68c68a9cd0034139 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-6-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ET | 74,880,449 | 74,880,449 |
a7aca5671232232e433d558990143024bc1143f1 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x34a00c61f07328b57b17b869ac0b21bc66417aeb4b5bd2fa84792a3716c16f84 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-6-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ET | 74,880,460 | 74,880,460 |
d55ab4d93c61af72287b1489af73036d540a03f8 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0x0390d7eaf5d45e512c215f1e817f5b4daffb3d6492831c32ee60917bd4096dfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-new-2025-08-16 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-16? | 75,284,624 | 75,284,624 |
0170862563f3e79cd4aa4656726f0ca9bfe0a5a0 | 0x01860ef59a87a1fdcbff481338be06535c40defd | 0xd402db702b5277ec47c30f78cb3d77179f400a462b01bcfd833106fe6df6eba6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Belgium beat Italy? | Event: uefa-nations-league-belgium-vs-italy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-new-2025-08-16 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-16? | 75,284,624 | 75,284,624 |
dba1c4cd487e34963eb78215185a6e144425e470 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x3b02ce9a4a1c8d23c9e58ed07c74c2ec66129d854f16370b450cd4ef0b484e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB?
Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | 64,038,787 | 64,038,787 |
8f8a7de342b6112f94cab16aceb93894cd9de244 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x6d8908685828958855e32472e2d80102e1fac020efd13b9f8aea09ff1ecac21c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw?
Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market.... | no | 1 | europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | 64,038,787 | 64,038,787 |
325adac3344c04a828e1ebc966867bdb157cd48f | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xb4961db4b70b4ebeebce6dee9816eda7a18443ae2d25240a70a0614a01f44ed2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mike Tyson wi... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | 64,483,973 | 64,483,973 |
b14cd139355f04bee6010c80e1b021f60f2f960b | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x6154df852fac6dd9748b97883c03220bb267ad2be71fa215c8df1431995db74d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | f1-constructors-championship-winner | Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | 65,431,632 | 65,431,632 |
5d56160d0bfdbf56539b186a66a471ded486fe69 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x8d3fc318619d9e7fc5dd0d1e70f6209624e56c619370e4b32ee3db547ee75659 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 65,431,632 | 65,431,632 |
d46bf3e11e6cdf18fc946b95c1f20c30eda68c60 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xe5dbb6dbb65688c54459c30ad65f3d2991537bf5f67518362659b813aa350bfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 65,431,632 | 65,431,632 |
f6cb4469b78afefe2e8368c2d6ec573e56695fc5 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x77424e91e4933ba8319c514dea8c16a166b9fe40ff46414c830b2f37466db5cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | 66,365,523 | 66,365,523 |
aa7d39d49369f81142d423c5a8a2054f2eead1a8 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x9fdc4c7b35db7e7299a9f41c2b76644dd9d2923852da5881035f0bbec2d5e1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | 66,365,523 | 66,365,523 |
d6bd3bbd9713e8734f7fc742d7027e6d69f8eb99 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x2581b82fb51f4a84abee8d08302fc49c6390afcbd708777fd6554fcc07fd2b35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,761,048 | 66,761,048 |
ce73e1ee0245b492413bf4daddf63c91c12edc98 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x2082b73bebdbad1eab3cdfa45f2645848e114eefe029b26962432f26029a8022 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? | 68,649,948 | 68,649,948 |
c698f2038ba399bb9c7f204d19bbb0e831e2f5c1 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x82cc9762eb034e4d9196106daefe747600c154d5014f8f292138b483150d789c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,649,948 | 68,649,948 |
bbe2c4fbfc8046d1dae0c1b5f0764aa630cda7e2 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xa28bf2f009b3b4d50a26175c6d6c284efc30ab9f940d35066e4f13118ff4b404 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4? | 68,684,643 | 68,684,643 |
2152eaa14780ed7866cd2e3b3b810274b8cd42b5 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xe290205e7ab1b7e83d7f75d96549d8b8a8a9f9e8365572720bc41ff5af676255 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 0 | who-will-attend-trumps-crypto-summit | Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? | 68,717,267 | 68,726,915 |
acc3f2d1b68dce1e215258285b2fa4581ce4c418 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x8f43ae377f6202c9fe1f77a064e7d90b52b79a6e8087dff2ba7893e4a3aae6e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 0.002046 | will-coinbase-announce-tokenized-coin-in-march | Will Coinbase announce tokenized $COIN in March? | 68,726,915 | 68,726,915 |
f429a5a93a6896b45cc9002c81555774c0d0d8ee | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x5c342d591d673beea6313a5c9d1614a5aafc7a12ef641d45231238a8ec381bc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-7-14 | Will Trump post 150 or more times on Truth March 7-14? | 68,917,520 | 68,917,520 |
246abdf1d87c0b23e9bc9b2306b50768f23bc894 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xf92e5b0510bb8f55f0832d220b47baa03fdf0f1e629a74242ce15cd93ec45205 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 10? | 68,917,520 | 68,917,520 |
0c34ec2c303180dba22f983fd862fff5d37078b8 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x34295c16ef1e45b468381a9aa35676b0f4cc29e80b36b80fdb1f3163f522b33d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 0.999919 | carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | 69,160,930 | 69,160,930 |
31d901789371cf9278e5533e4368501347d32875 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x4c235bd675f65a4075177a277bc21ebf4cc55517ca1c2be1187d1a1faf6a6bf2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on March 11? | 69,160,930 | 69,160,930 |
b65b87072769118f10c8699e09994e2686e1a3f7 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xd888d48f24dc6cca00250db4656f9a23feb0a99d40312a1283b7d28220ad50a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | opus-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Opus' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? | 69,201,364 | 69,201,364 |
0dba02f185614cfb4ace2dfe7f22a4485d631bf3 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xfea0417ff3224017d41a09f4c79724302e40bf2bb972548b1dd0458bcfb3d2ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 0 | presidents-trophy-winner | Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | 69,203,883 | 69,203,883 |
10a21c6b875b4dd0efb1abb0d475ed973473e0b2 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xed54e9b67588e8d3ae34621eeb39ee03530df1a6806e09e3458b3d6221bbfc16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | charriere | 0.008403 | ufc-fight-night-edwards-vs-brady | Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere | 69,276,106 | 69,276,106 |
9c98d3c948e64037737717086ca9dd57cc1a3914 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xf1831606258368e338b4071943fe9899bab3cf0026b77b42228f45c6962332a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | herbert | 0 | ufc-fight-night-edwards-vs-brady | Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla | 69,276,106 | 69,276,106 |
ce09fe22c8f22f78ec258087e2923161ce696d09 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xd640f9d87fa9c64980a6e6609e66a5f651048345d2d659887d23c5426fc6e672 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | what-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-03202025 | Will Karoline Leavitt say "president" 60 or more times during next White House press briefing? | 69,535,475 | 69,535,475 |
b72a8e83da07143a8f8d17d43da77a71dbde7a82 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x14b9e500e76d742df5da8afddf85ab1fcc28bbae3201b3c05a9b71a610eb73a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | russell-wilsons-next-team | Will Russell Wilson sign with the Minnesota Vikings? | 69,577,687 | 69,577,687 |
37b143c83e7554e1a35f6f645952e3dc4412015e | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x0f6f21b5ce89587a326ac5dbd5c1f65c3387964f3aa8e8451e284f43ee62a500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 0.00047 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or below on April 4? | 69,938,487 | 69,938,487 |
91e389153e7721bc850b307828614cd512b26192 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x39e46fd060d47877eb1cbfc0feab991cbe624bcc8b978e3cc588f6d261aab189 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 0 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or higher on April 4? | 69,938,487 | 69,938,487 |
c5fcee378c67ec3d3d54a157eb4091913a671288 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xd3213453bab50d4ef9ae25bf8182f67f59a26d6435e3051d41d26443bfdc7c3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 0 | 2025-madrid-open-winner-w | Will Elina Svitolina win the 2025 Women's Madrid Open? | 71,016,045 | 71,016,045 |
5c74ca3c5d021f040d0df37d616ef957dcbbce61 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x07fa2643b1887669dcea81940faa9ddaf61e9ed1c5b36177b42e0b322cdd8206 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on May 2? | 71,061,087 | 71,061,087 |
0aa5b9a728935f7103f8b9d76e65aa43b8770c6a | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xa778b19a9cf053b7e6da11b9ac84b91dda7dbf08973a49af138b1523c805e43f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 0.00073 | trump-approval-rating-on-may-2 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on May 2? | 71,106,418 | 71,106,418 |
da7727909bea10a6f503e4a8d3938b1e5bf7bff5 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x310856dda37a2cc0df91c98d55b4af046b803843a3255cfa6f3549ab6edb0920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
922dc6f958dc91b45ecfc58237319bf668540417 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x4bb6de97e799c4202ab568e696667519bc9877316367da60c852ab6b29e826b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Midtjylland beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
cef49a861f43ddc25ecd7400f7ae037c705c449e | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between FCSB and Midtjylland end in a draw? | Event: europa-league-fcsb-vs-midtjylland | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
c6e7ebf50c2df10448f8cd00d15304d41e8ed3fa | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xb906c3feb63c4de0e6c3d160bf7427b7877c0ef37ca2c1632f0a1a636c9db85e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | Event: f1-constructors-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Africa? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
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