sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10579df3fed6e18d4dd9479e8e655e3e3cae9d17 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xbc313b9d1136eada02794b4299fa04bab53da830001d73966fb9ca1e7ffbad5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | Event: f1-constructors-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Event: las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Max Ver... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
b4ce6f17bc3706a191f8e368f6ee2bec38e5292b | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xc9419f62294dc0af13db4530a49c3608ee2e4d603e753de30aa5f192b81fb747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Event: las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Event: las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wisconsin be the ... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Europe? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
9204e91085661d2eefd18bde9b680a331fbb36f6 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xe36af7728445b62f1e06a904041d5f1455f9c290b07b91fc903696d08db762be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Event: las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jill Stein get the... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
fff1ed95301642d893e9493deaea2c3d8aae2f31 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xe3cce9907c9cf32d35a376fbb581d97beba2e2cea485bce1840e23d0af42f9c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wisconsin be the closest state? | Event: closest-state-in-the-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | Event: which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | 71,349,596 | 71,349,596 |
8da35e186a8eca16f6788c372b82b0b071e07195 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x0e77886c9997d9504ad48787e0400d92456e8b4df3733ff2a6fa0ef1eb79d0b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | Event: which-3rd-party-candidate-wins-most-votes | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | down | 0.333333 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? | 71,623,917 | 71,623,917 |
092275c0a262c314db76303d15d422b01bd43727 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x20c21803b308b63153e9c821a55f6c4aec287f8bcba90639dd3fbb0ffe4ca300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Google have the top ... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will France win Eurovision 2025? | 71,670,409 | 71,670,409 |
7a3bef7242b54c89d0019f45ebd9324a776200f0 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x2031a73d21f9a1f1a9b2ded2e933db390919883b8555cff6d0841f963874bb45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest t... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 20? | 71,806,864 | 71,806,864 |
1314af93d6f2f7ac87437459b1a8873df66117d0 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x8539711d5197f965c155a61a7e60d2e88ef143e9fe2ed56b5e76caa06307fa0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 20? | 71,806,864 | 71,806,864 |
c363c64fa7af82df30a9b0d3addd3047829d7ca9 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x99fb1fb1f52cd16d28510100af51c1a0a2384e9b1a873af3f94f796a308cdcfc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? | Event: who-will-attend-trumps-crypto-summit | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3.... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-20 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 20? | 71,806,864 | 71,806,864 |
f18622c8a350859144f5f4c011fe645abaa050fc | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x11e939b79ce587e7b0fd42da1af793c79cfc6f08b4fdf0aa08597bdbf336456f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? | Event: who-will-attend-trumps-crypto-summit | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Coinbase announce tokenized $COIN in March? | Event: will-coinbase-announce-tokenized-coin-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00204630405353... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 23? | 71,909,210 | 71,909,210 |
f72b25cc59cca7d5467041b11945b9a679ca1f93 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x5745e449ab0be1eaa0a7b36466af458921b1bd65fff2a068485fee8f50e0dcdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Coinbase announce tokenized $COIN in March? | Event: will-coinbase-announce-tokenized-coin-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.00204630405353822
2. Question: Will Trump post 150 or more times on Truth March 7-14? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61–62°F on May 23? | 71,909,210 | 71,909,210 |
a69560e114bcb80047ec246a0cad671a579088b1 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x7cb36f0bf12f27eeac427f155fffa2dbee97c00f11de45eba4eb15d0b19205b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 150 or more times on Truth March 7-14? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-may-23 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or below on May 23? | 71,909,210 | 71,909,210 |
65865073fd82e066345533adb6f621ac2b9f1883 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0xa91f38f47261a695e54edad8be6af924c3cb3df19de6f262df2c70251a67c5ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999186199462828
3. ... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-25 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? | 73,224,441 | 73,224,441 |
e90e4b00b9c154e4a4586a77e81c21d70a611e72 | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x26c06323b97f17a3da42c51728f02b15b37c51ce3df8d8dd67bdbbaf6ca3fd52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Event: carabao-cup-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999186199462828
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | nascar-grant-park-165-winner | Will Shane Van Gisbergen win the 2025 NASCAR Grant Park 165? | 73,691,014 | 73,691,014 |
bf0bedbb9dadcab38d1feabee6fb83100eacdadd | 0x01977763c700eda0a1fcd97f24c2b24100d2ea5c | 0x59a4521afd002ef6fa1aa0126508323498a257ecd2a881c5aefc309bfbfcbc15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Opus' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? | Event: opus-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | yes | 1 | nascar-grant-park-165-winner | Will Chase Elliott win the 2025 NASCAR Grant Park 165? | 73,691,014 | 73,691,014 |
74a14a83b822055fbb8b67c54c412274bd117190 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x26f4725797645ecd4f447502b3a276fb5a41698e8df57fdbda56c94911d84575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13?
Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | 76,664,675 | 76,664,675 |
bdc7e267a6d75bee04b52bfb5763cb506033f8bd | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x4339941ae4a4470d66e29bf99206d3cb4f3649e37b9d57d75be5b7f9d8c1e511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?
Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"ch... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | 76,664,675 | 76,664,675 |
66239956871d8dff93e07fb4d76cbdfd71dff1e3 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x3c14980495b09987db0d1b241f47c8f791b6591340f94fea066beeef139ec352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 1... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | 77,709,261 | 77,709,261 |
bb6df1a8f4cc728d68d15cab677e0d1cb4c5c4ed | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x41cc434590af62f435d8e0b8d2d53a0ea5c2f96cdbc1f828c28cafc49b557cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? | 77,709,261 | 77,709,261 |
ae9382659c4e3565818485f327f2b1c82e12b9e7 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-october | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | 78,348,566 | 78,348,566 |
4cd1567d0bec86ef42d4b8505f3e044a309cfc83 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0xd608371cde69e478a508339ef02e033badb03e39ffe95a062adcf6366a98ff3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-ars-2025-11-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-01? | 78,489,048 | 78,489,048 |
7443b18e4cc5b884530e1f796df3676b2866ee5d | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0xf88e6a1feb18fc7245fc7756cacfc37710d830ee78e5d84a0a5d9592f78b9c15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-october | Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? | 78,489,048 | 78,489,048 |
8b03a8ebb292a54065f7d8d338b63229acfb3d92 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x2371a52d10a33ebdd015d3e94ddc041e2ff0fc13669adfae5e64804a36430587 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | sea-ver-int-2025-11-02 | Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? | 78,564,565 | 78,564,565 |
c854133c356d2dc10666aa7c9ce23784497abbac | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x6a275bccfc2f3f09731fcde02291d06673d7540cbb120ddd0a56ae7a39ef0e38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | 78,754,762 | 78,754,762 |
646933de4358fd89e732f63889648bb690082dd7 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x6b9f192e5ddc110431a737aed515ed9ca5e13bc71dd5bab74f32a7dc68afd683 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | no | 1 | virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | 78,754,762 | 78,754,762 |
23a2810c9e4dd0328f9cff03f4d4bbd63bd7622d | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x9a1e320340488a0a26b7bbe5ee16e108978e969434c19c2bb53023ff7ce33034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | 78,995,861 | 78,995,861 |
7f6e21e99abe3fed43507034c613959b70cc2da4 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0xb42d9ac918cd081c65ec982f6a3ead0763e1f1334de2d8d6127fee9d7418c3c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Will Norway win on 2025-11-13? | 78,995,861 | 78,995,861 |
9823f56f9c15db2ffab9d381c8bd2851b8633b1f | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x48dbd0ca63061fb1e953d8eadd434baf8393e17099921dec21add47de1c22c82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | no | 1 | uef-kaz-bel-2025-11-15 | Will Kazakhstan win on 2025-11-15? | 79,125,967 | 79,125,967 |
f737ca6d1f5432eb6951ea01f2c9976c1f8d52a4 | 0x01c001dbfa9724c2b0216aa0d8fa7bf083eb9bf5 | 0x6983c9d5ddda9ea22bf9e2eb12a94cc03d7ebf759a57516f66c80c1c1db3ffab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win on 2025-09-13? | Event: sea-juv-int-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? | Event: who-will-win-the-usdh-ticker-159 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? | Event... | no | 1 | uef-den-bel1-2025-11-15 | Will Belarus win on 2025-11-15? | 79,125,967 | 79,125,967 |
e872b8ba9e3758c3ae5a921daa0494ba98953118 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x918c9fa6d75649143982cdbe64e62182a08c0ab272e96b716750934a8d1a7921 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0.000147 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | 75,472,265 | 75,472,265 |
6c224238935ef88cef1cada60b2d0ea4018f8ad3 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xadd828b1475de1f9671f5499253d228346f353fab764ba6ebe945133d80ea3eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ... | down | 0.000003 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | 75,473,266 | 75,473,956 |
f8896b97466f32a07c3b152f27781d92f1928f01 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x2bd48ae483e1d6d6da42e7f219aee9c06c99c30077631ec2d6456823d0985941 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
Target ma... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6AM ET | 75,474,797 | 75,475,578 |
9d9c4261cc209a89b834c5b24f5e902b263b5500 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa3b67bc9e810ea56d4ccab923c23aeb7ff841b801d2420a20fa66a9317ccf42a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.000153 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8AM ET | 75,479,091 | 75,479,091 |
d1b61a18176006d864c63422fb101dab7cf63a6f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x70c579983d2d911b6a210d1f51b45a393ede5a2d6cf80e86d8cecf99a77ebb61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0.000054 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11AM ET | 75,483,987 | 75,483,987 |
5c85a39c233d48bcd44b664c80dfcbe9ffb737f2 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xf5a34c4a300ec3ad0bbe00f0324704b62e9e2a332feef7562fbcbf984c6a0151 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4PM ET | 75,492,266 | 75,492,266 |
6cd184d0bc832936b3a7e084f747f78d2b2e90dc | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x5b21cde8fce571c04856512a9d964bbc201dd35c83b73a6d6e5104f91cbb6d3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0.000023 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5PM ET | 75,493,212 | 75,493,872 |
d8029fed36479d40a5cba42c3d8b218e79ffa189 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xbd29d50138990f7a5862cf5e60ff87f4f07622a7bff815dd98032dc606e29b37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.00034 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6PM ET | 75,495,329 | 75,495,413 |
6fb74ddc68b913b3bdf295f1dcf887a7d796b0fc | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa68c08a0c3d3603b209402fc8d9b153659361f234c14adfdd054c7fc9af76b54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 1AM ET | 75,506,365 | 75,506,365 |
26896c288f28a7a042a6010d5eb26a6dc8882a4d | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xd56200135c5dd3d05da0034728f85c1e71c553c8dc8ac3df63218798655bfea5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0.000468 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 2AM ET | 75,508,756 | 75,508,826 |
6e55f91770a62fcf95075a8393246a95e0574e6d | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x4d5b07c60dea939d92f11c7147d024ac4ee8d4b8e2086499b25e2e3d0af9c5a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.000013 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 3AM ET | 75,510,201 | 75,511,174 |
d3b04d4b945b8ce70057366e3592ca60cd7a2567 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xc32d0c9d074b04655080b4b0557179ae6bd1727f7bea7316d740ebfeee795ce8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.000028 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 4AM ET | 75,511,865 | 75,512,810 |
cdb901325e3741192b9fdbca41e3b35ef0042755 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x17b66f2dd8f448bdedc95dfc35a9a6123d8a874971b9a3455d14e0b0c801b75c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0.000009 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5AM ET | 75,513,470 | 75,513,774 |
2de701e0683cd60c33e3b48782bb13b6f1781ab3 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x4f0c6e19efa6c0ec0fd7148ee1004f63649d8197a6e94f8809fff8b81c88f3fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6AM ET | 75,515,385 | 75,515,385 |
05a23462bd232609810ad8d6c48b66fa7937c24f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x614f73b1b50519eb56b9d29c85d8fb4b57b9f255e05f94515ba5dc957bfaba57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0.000167 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 7AM ET | 75,517,123 | 75,517,123 |
0101a983d941d79a38ed4a9608c5e6d8a1c3ec16 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x6fbe2064fdb2462afa9f2629d684bf29f89f3ef1a9a770a037a3c44a6ea5bdeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.000016 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-7am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 7AM ET | 75,517,677 | 75,517,677 |
10512faa3125bf1f6f73bf7dd790efcd30c84842 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xe1d4063f8766804c78d9e72acd50369916f6c3fa79ca5125706095e7987f7e87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 8AM ET | 75,518,403 | 75,519,652 |
c4e1eda781afca260eae2e1de343063e46623a76 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x09cb21bf5d1b15217ff874439fb145ec7f00273b43493891462adfa452f7079c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-9am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 9AM ET | 75,520,104 | 75,520,240 |
673918ddf08a17c86d10eaf376f7b2d451f52b96 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x87a9cbd39fc6c7e43ddf739b614a20ffd91f6c68279c37a8e25938b44f1efaa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-10am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 10AM ET | 75,522,184 | 75,522,618 |
56ab3f6580109b425b04d43e4c6b76c1e61902cd | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xfb91633c610ebec954b9126e0658ba2c9383c841201ccc1df01fc7464c4d6235 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.000007 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 11AM ET | 75,523,405 | 75,524,192 |
d110b904e07357743477021de6ffe189a029d1b1 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x9e645012a5e6c967f9f68b4dee6017916e9d23d9687a8fb55ead890996963d34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-12pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 12PM ET | 75,525,872 | 75,526,031 |
77f6e69e18147679dd6f2d4d203021be9b0c4ed9 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x6f287921760921f6794b4997d15b1231787333402ef2b8ecb6523a59fffd92bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-1pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 1PM ET | 75,527,123 | 75,528,065 |
5e251fda233cb5d1df109596250b581bebf1b8d8 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x191c52f70b49dc8305d73927faaca57985b2f8412486b850f76c7b610addba15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-22-2pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 22, 2PM ET | 75,528,849 | 75,529,167 |
df7213cdb6693b5facd271053419fa5318c92949 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x43117e49f47852d528a5a6f2bb4f38dc35558e313ffc6b7f1e9084b02bdadcd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 4AM ET | 75,552,174 | 75,552,174 |
aec939b7a09bad524f36a7506e60c467d9c53a92 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x937cf15f8f29b2a5ef2ba0f64d1b238c6e902cb8e4bc81440bf3631a8ebd5680 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0.000002 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5AM ET | 75,552,874 | 75,553,780 |
70a28e21fab825388144fa6472c78ccaa1203eb6 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x6a73c87ef4cb4214b0253340b106121f38573c0415832785ec697463be6c1d93 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7AM ET | 75,558,923 | 75,572,334 |
a4193190a4a202bc910ff844b4c7c03d9dfcb1cb | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xd9f55e3bd5c69ec4b9ce2118b2bf9cc70ad58215f8242a4c9d1033e21b5a517d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET | 75,572,871 | 75,573,730 |
6bde37bb46e88e1654c2cfef470cbf8276a1999d | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x2675c1dca5be5b9b62e65b786af2f46968485b10aeb53568943e82497a5f8717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.000438 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 4AM ET | 75,590,846 | 75,592,603 |
967d698e64a940cc736eb5f0d512b18cb2bc517f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa40341f344f615e9fe7b7e439cef9d2025f42514f7a0633317d87f0293ffaf42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | 75,596,034 | 75,596,034 |
78156c55657d43ac0913c9f5033e659ddb849f4b | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x01e51166c9bc041b0ec881709682c68a5fd4e6e35361770646955f6dd90c7c66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-24-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 24, 10AM ET | 75,602,299 | 75,602,299 |
6ebac3d6b1315db4f3fc41a28bdb0aa10bf7dda4 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x058b02c2175cf1dd03cae578d7bb8c7d6b6c1833e8373f6c154035c9fe0edf36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001467215240475778
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
3. Questio... | up | 0.000105 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11AM ET | 75,602,392 | 75,602,425 |
3af91f05d27769b7cbadedd4d7a2a9cf5c34a856 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xabf7dbf887cc16c1f67cb7715d3d069a0dd9e7c7161c7d448139dd02f12a0ec5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.225010400658542e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-26-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 4PM ET | 75,692,004 | 75,692,250 |
88d94e67a19050a3ee37a8723d215b85b9701da4 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa21cfc59279dd1af6a6800b20c16e2f16c91f19d40851ac30966e9b6025f304e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0001531365456066749
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2AM ET | 75,709,559 | 75,709,559 |
0e3a398c6006aed771ccb1a658f64d7cdee9cb62 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x41523982a7e066f21d3050f20991279085fce0168f028fb97e2f6d0e5ff05a5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0001531365456066749
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.3727886530703864e-05
3. Questi... | down | 0.000073 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 3AM ET | 75,710,087 | 75,710,200 |
939d720811b0d64dca71816eb2d6de13029de6aa | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x34c407a4321f183b07832802ab607eb2d3f083e06d69599a620bd164c4134b5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.3727886530703864e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4AM ET | 75,712,424 | 75,712,424 |
c560d353bf08497a226b11932878737cc8ac1b93 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa9f16f744dfafb24d0a6b1b2736328e97065bb4de4dfa3269d99691cae6804c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.303803073863314e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-27-4am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 27, 4AM ET | 75,712,442 | 75,712,442 |
d67e43c6c8eed6740786584289b184343cb13257 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xaad5937edcc654ccba45b121fca861ac6ace3e8b0810b197988211ad39f273e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.303803073863314e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00034022285508031894
3. Question... | up | 0.000119 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5AM ET | 75,713,772 | 75,713,948 |
34545b63bb729f42761c358a53a734aae21fb37b | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xe9fac6cb411bb9e9c0a5e55afbf528328e9a34789f94cf369d370160d0433148 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00034022285508031894
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 6AM ET | 75,715,108 | 75,715,108 |
6c26398105492fc8b52bd67d30dd14ecbdadfe4d | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xfcb7a32018235a72c29020f1578c91c08a705b28ddc535c99ab640e6feec1865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0004675812654840066
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 7AM ET | 75,716,502 | 75,716,707 |
cd4a7557658dbf5d1bebc22aa5f637543df08354 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xc1ad6b0c7fcfc63544c0bbce625790775b62ac4adc5bb493cf13a9165bdaccfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0004675812654840066
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.3344178064712096e-05
3. Question... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 8AM ET | 75,718,455 | 75,718,625 |
80bd4276b62735f2aebaee1b414b1c8924182e44 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x03303e24128aa5e7816fc51f3e8c79a2027e1937d49f8d1d4af70be92c370785 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-3am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.3344178064712096e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.7623853213702404e-05
3. Question:... | up | 0.00007 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-27-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 11AM ET | 75,723,609 | 75,723,679 |
f2d30aebffb994dd759a96d3b33dc114e38d5a1a | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x27253367ad8b72f6be37a49cacfad9513506a7f7c881d13571f1c825de8ddd2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 2.7623853213702404e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.350285027855266e-06
3. Question... | down | 0.000083 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-27-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 2PM ET | 75,729,002 | 75,729,621 |
07428537cf2d202da0337a38e92c8f536ca1a2c8 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x3bff907b22f3c6b46210aaededfe8909cd14cd56ea4bec2755c8af04d0661fbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.350285027855266e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | up | 0.000108 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 2AM ET | 75,749,151 | 75,749,467 |
18b2b6ba5631360a7563153c951b96dc741f7c6c | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xcbe382eec5e7e470c13371b0886290b08d14e6136d20a70cf455cf111a9142d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00016676113797373815
3. Question: XRP Up or Down... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-28-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 4AM ET | 75,751,891 | 75,752,312 |
fbe4fad55e35d589dba9f9b56f162abc0b0cde24 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xedfc67e2589694aebbe44db163186e5294b5601981e35b50ebd5e45c1741619d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00016676113797373815
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.649972775449205e-05
3. Question: XRP Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 6AM ET | 75,755,298 | 75,755,456 |
08fd954fffdb82847eb07a2cd564588edb0d8277 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa2e457997ddbcbdcc3ae69c4786a8f0db9f411094c72fbff6ca97d04ef492745 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.649972775449205e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 9AM E... | down | 0.000015 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | 75,756,851 | 75,756,851 |
53feaa47acd465ad696dc75121a3c24a938ec89b | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xc0a638a1766edae1fe86b9b14554e1e828e44a6fc30f67bb0cc8171f50367c41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-... | down | 0.000054 | solana-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | 75,757,087 | 75,757,591 |
d9bbf29859f4f22aa550ad664bc61721d61f9079 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x44e6ecc36f6b2114827184829d3eb422ae9ff1f6655cacee3d9ef59bb0caa2d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 11AM ET | Event: xr... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | XRP Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | 75,757,823 | 75,757,823 |
d742f816ece882bc80dae0ef883ca2572a6a6785 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xcd81607d113240b875690f12ad00a98db9ea26929e2ef81d3ad1af3e47593e14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 10AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.234072488790483e-06
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 1... | up | 0.333333 | solana-up-or-down-august-28-8am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 28, 8AM ET | 75,759,814 | 75,759,814 |
0bf30d1b61ec161b5fe7da55238262b6b5cc631b | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xca7b7cbe7d121e83e6c22e7bf806e8e23379a2aeb18025c6e18a8f389c3c9ef9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.234072488790483e-06
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 1... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-28-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 4PM ET | 75,772,751 | 75,772,751 |
8ba7088ad2f71781fd9394b14a38cf04ff59a2d3 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xb3d73badcf1cc7550358fadab681a8303d0ff078df5a78904db2e6be6be765eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 2PM ET | Event: xrp... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | 75,788,722 | 75,788,774 |
b70b80110bda3cdbc7fd2b5045f3ed14b2483e0f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xf16c5b34ee02689995e64469f5e2681d4e7eab1923221d880c92f0056d94ac8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 4AM ET | Event: b... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3AM ET | 75,790,353 | 75,790,353 |
d9c19fb2ea03d9fe90783cfd3b147dd28271cbf6 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xb169901aab47490d33129e4f3e8d84acd5c0020144469d066a36657e5d09fc9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 22, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-22-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5AM ET | ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3AM ET | 75,791,040 | 75,791,040 |
bc00dedcbd53ce63bf0c70f182550f18418a506a | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xe7216d23a25e8b12462aa1eb22d51b911ca257e49bb52856fc30de90391183a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.3918721996473042e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 5AM ET | 75,835,607 | 75,835,607 |
2b22f692374b1577a0e107e186975dca03c4eab6 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x9e878b7b8bca180f21bc886221dc88666a4a974b84b7d55cddc8651dc2152ba9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 2.3918721996473042e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-30-5am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 30, 5AM ET | 75,835,646 | 75,835,757 |
3def84265c4b65f4aac57009f7435770a3b159b5 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xfef46b6b2da3af3225fdc866047eb9aa29fcec395263f671be4de186713238f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 4... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 6AM ET | 75,836,368 | 75,836,668 |
fe80ca77c5c0072c90773b26c2eb6558d3746cec | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x7954a6efe27a2d0619f3407a17248e291bdc7d0bb96d3e4e56e6d9bdbfafd72d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0004376914900268868
3. Question: Solana Up or Down... | up | 0.000114 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 10AM ET | 75,843,155 | 75,843,333 |
b31f668a2b8782d0e6739e430dc442ce9c2d230e | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xd3709e6219ed7151bccb0c9014426fa314785e0630a93094e04c4b3e5e18e3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0004376914900268868
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down -... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-30-1pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 30, 1PM ET | 75,848,398 | 75,848,968 |
db51931912abf61413745fa61bc5d77f2e01ffe7 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa9e69bcfd873647cc37c7d7ab2d8fbc85ed86fba3f186fc5b6ea33c842ed089e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 24, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 24, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11A... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 2PM ET | 75,849,779 | 75,849,807 |
745c75c4452d5cd0a3cf57d701257026bc9d8c09 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xdd2a3ca9cf9bb1b8ab9e4bc68a41c48c0c92eaeb11c265226af6dcefd07884ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 24, 10AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00010525207872855489
3. Question: Ethereum Up or... | down | 0.00012 | xrp-up-or-down-august-30-2pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 30, 2PM ET | 75,850,162 | 75,850,207 |
e8c401eb97b2ca47f164fc1e7d2d052bb9b1429f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x816d422fa50ad134d5c234a39e4b9610bdd55dd9dd3848d85f7ffc090a28da71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00010525207872855489
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-26-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-30-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 3PM ET | 75,852,495 | 75,852,506 |
b0c598b67a3f1f9951fbd45b3b0a36a5943c5c41 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x62fad5ef79644aa17937178605eae70e598920f2035bbc4233c975b313ffa8ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-26-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27,... | down | 0.000106 | xrp-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | 75,853,176 | 75,853,831 |
2fce00a3e15cf0b93b60ab0533ec582e17140ed5 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x2d9fb13fb3191ba5e7f3f6677a4a948b4be413200ec4cb97feb38ef39372efe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.250660088554773e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or D... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | 75,853,457 | 75,853,457 |
caa8d189e73a70715a7796d8ed82e84a9e17c93c | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x05cab05e5c7416cb303417406e6174090ac73a5a06996055b6795b2726ba3627 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.250660088554773e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | 75,853,626 | 75,853,626 |
31882625fec5a454c2b0da768df8b58246342ce0 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xe328f82ba2d78d659c2a30de760768b6e12812ebc9b2062bbec972920feb028c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 27, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-27-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5AM... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | 75,854,054 | 75,854,054 |
2d17445bb9af49f40779bbb0efa6e1fd11a92c15 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xc124e45b32ebc8fd4062808da2ceccc9e2e14c1dc036bd6b0f0d8a1a01dfd08b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 27, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-27-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011938925209196848
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-30-6pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 30, 6PM ET | 75,856,654 | 75,856,654 |
65160890efb1dd413b7c0bd8d38d9fb9c5bccde0 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x4066899a7425471cfc35d08a9aad7d0838c42a9913f2f19013241649539e46ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011938925209196848
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | up | 0.000096 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 2AM ET | 75,870,867 | 75,870,960 |
b32f6ce4fcaa3aee59c182101d0a666802a52aea | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x205d6afdc88e2e90f06e1472157ddad3cbf2bb8dc376620ed8d51d860b288371 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 8... | down | 0.000404 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 6AM ET | 75,876,410 | 75,876,410 |
a06f1ae4b55bbdf8eecde4523dd30eba64621c5d | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x7d5acdc737ef5fb4a8dfb438f16a6e89f2cd1926a3a427e772058338222bf365 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 7AM ET | 75,878,840 | 75,879,184 |
20a58fd937147ab49cd1b9f5ba0c54d6458b746c | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x6da4d2bfad1e9768827706bb279823e272e6d9d096dc1ec28139452a49f79f36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-27-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-27-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.984237761704683e-05
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0.000237 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 7AM ET | 75,879,427 | 75,879,427 |
e695c35fdfa2447a5c7dbbcf197c853ce402a134 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xc87dddd92e4077ac275c2b7a025e44e241056eead01a74e245d84eecf6de02d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-27-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.984237761704683e-05
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-27-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.33402783565297e-05
3. Ques... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | 75,885,946 | 75,885,946 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.