sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0f890ffd0af6ad3600d4174d3d12840288ae2e29 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x1ae8d3e64506820febdfedd135d635b962625cca0d93290ee585654339804fcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-27-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.33402783565297e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00010794165014229986
3. Questio... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | 75,886,210 | 75,886,235 |
035d20c4d3500118d0923ee1678a98f7ae8b2f93 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x46e9ff7c47e4e6d56048a9104b479323f31c9e192040e9c5048e53ecf7c6c9cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00010794165014229986
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-28-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0.00008 | xrp-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | 75,886,694 | 75,886,880 |
5935659cac4996605ff346441591e7271f5b0bf9 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x0ce86b5739a031fbeaa32ec33e708f0a7435399b395e12dfdf2222dfc3a05da8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-28-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28,... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | 75,887,869 | 75,887,869 |
2d9529da75ce3ca240bbc44c9174dd160acb7c3a | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x85616eadd9dbc068ac6b887193944b085c74c257897ad99b65d6f5b4c8d803bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5099771993442898e-05
3. Question: Solana Up or D... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 1PM ET | 75,888,521 | 75,888,613 |
660b285350c924683574ef9085d078390aef19d1 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x5225700e4707eb78e673eb52597e14af828195ae83494073f5ecb9942e57d166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.5099771993442898e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.413626390975298e-05
3. Question... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 2PM ET | 75,890,720 | 75,890,720 |
13eec3e686c9b304dad19f130a1745f89b178116 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xf7c533a755ffdbe9f781b01a8929c297aedc9949fa26448b5db76a00cf176773 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.413626390975298e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Augus... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 3PM ET | 75,891,895 | 75,892,334 |
0582ac17c6606f2478f4e7db3f3dd669b3c59615 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x9489394ca0be800f3802bac9479d240466983a0eb0d57569bfb82043a5c9dbe5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 28, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-28-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 28, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-28-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 2... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4PM ET | 75,893,927 | 75,894,051 |
7f57454b80a942ff091832125c5c6e1cf6c8d656 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x3b6040f558c90ff9622586b89d4bb3b6e40717c94783c042efdf08846c160a54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 28, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-28-8am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.3333333333333333
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-28-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down -... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 4PM ET | 75,894,107 | 75,894,280 |
352ca5ee56beb1c3b3bd310cf6852ae0a3836d8e | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x9944b00c99e25fe465465d888fd1b8717e1356cce1febf2f2d24ce7792a433c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 28, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-28-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29,... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 3AM ET | 75,912,324 | 75,912,495 |
8a57a85825578375597b1bd2dbfc1bfe765a2c9c | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x729db780d77de63b8e42a1c4ca2fc9ded9e4b3a15790174d01cfbaddf3690050 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-1-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7AM ET | 75,918,718 | 75,920,252 |
37757fc90319a0237e95d2ed7656fe54aab2710c | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xd16ec284afba5f572ad172e70c359323f3448f0c1147bdeddbbebbc70736120e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-29-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 10AM ET | 75,924,825 | 75,925,009 |
719c7ed57b36f7618082379b14e864edc23e2d99 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x5c6a929e98d33a045292854fef54307a7ada6c3235469f44aa0cf8f4052ad412 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-29-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 30... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3AM ET | 75,952,736 | 75,952,750 |
6561f4d4f86c631a19bf863d1c94e42e9ad68b39 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xf9f123a900579f78fdb242dd624976a4885a2d722e949fedca895b3e03e249cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 30, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-3-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 3, 2AM ET | 75,992,736 | 75,992,736 |
2eebd892bb4f11bcd5927dfb8fff058267232f46 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x437ee4c13973124329eaad43fea5b0a5dbaf133719018da6a2a516d89c427ed4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 30, 5AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-30-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, ... | down | 0.000038 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | 75,993,303 | 75,993,883 |
bbb35f4ce94bbff67747a9b3cfffbb458ed32bf3 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x22af87d979fe55e8ba28d3392d80067411760f28b92f54447ae7999e7d00e196 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011407967935542514
3. Question: XRP Up or ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | 75,994,258 | 75,994,299 |
9d0d1eba371b506ac3e9fe98f804c25238490efe | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xb5fcdaf691edb4b5478cabfcfbecbefeaa7ef51315e5a981012f805ca4625f45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-10am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011407967935542514
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | 75,994,411 | 75,994,592 |
3d013fedb9a31c83226464908209e5ada5e52175 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x1b19c144abc4adbda04f11b8ae3e380162bf08a0ed9ad7cf4d17a0486aff7ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 1PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 2PM ET | Ev... | up | 0.000167 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7AM ET | 76,000,671 | 76,000,928 |
bd84b906658b82c0b3fea5bfb154041f4ca6fa4e | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xd238b839b1ed3280d3edc12b2c9549e2f3fc86dac45c17559eb43b54e9b9e4c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001195642939113371
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8AM ET | 76,001,559 | 76,001,559 |
51a1c84ca40109e348dce8bf33c7d0821000efaa | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xfd1673fee38f2056fe91751a54c51e7ddfb9255ff683b3ec6416ac37e71f9501 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001195642939113371
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-30-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 8AM ET | 76,002,008 | 76,002,008 |
d57c7a6f4750c10ae06cfa7e8f3d530843e6d49d | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x8c3975f996d40f8a48c96766b09e24aea91086481097c3411d3a903fda14396c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-30-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010612792860869086
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Au... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 9AM ET | 76,003,462 | 76,003,462 |
ab451416854106661667002835c2643ff5aca742 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x1ac3d2d17ff94db4671a478c39b43e908ca8271caa5f3191f78e25eba0557a63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00010612792860869086
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Aug... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-9am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 9AM ET | 76,003,526 | 76,003,526 |
0d3bbd92b3d67c953c63793acc2186bb7cf559ec | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xe95414f91c7dec74e12cb350959574c032d75bd36100625c46e451601f35cafd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 4P... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9AM ET | 76,004,159 | 76,004,218 |
7eef4e1b1df1bafa531cdccfaf2e23802e09ac79 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xf70b9f16018817dd7bc6e002ec53b140e18d7b94b787ed50002ab368222457b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 6PM... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 10AM ET | 76,005,132 | 76,005,364 |
34c2a127d981962fa067bb08ba26ddaac0a91db3 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xd14387d8b782a559d8e981cbcdd77e54e6bf0cf3de0b58554caf74aec2bed333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 30, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 2AM ET ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-10am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 10AM ET | 76,005,415 | 76,005,600 |
50540fdd9f1cc10836921906e12d13e6bcaefd79 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa7467e80e2dcb9786cde7fdf754d29172c7d0ea7935566e2da118593f9406a10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 30, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.644069829464949e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Augu... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 10AM ET | 76,005,493 | 76,005,493 |
05dfc97c47a08c322d3c5b33845a07e19640e55c | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xfcdb92b019b3d134fec8f7a10c115d5198549dea06b5d56fafc75d7fa5b7c3d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-2am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.644069829464949e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0004038129991170936
3. Question:... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-3-10am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 3, 10AM ET | 76,005,633 | 76,005,981 |
4568a225028d2de72f5e43f1dc7c55412be8bf6f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa506cf09511182cbe62ed4e5142c4a314f31b870ff548d3f2042452c7063eb9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0004038129991170936
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-3-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 3, 11AM ET | 76,007,351 | 76,007,408 |
8a5b6e20ae7812b7e5717133f3719e0a97a156e6 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x151782d0e4d08d6af62729bc4fbb64966d006e0f838719b5f99e933a62d8b595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002370561823152087
3. Question: Ethereum Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 11AM ET | 76,007,415 | 76,007,956 |
299c76c56308717bb604c4f18d767c49f3456db8 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x7c7c3d6c2deca7755c9da00ea092184b24713924381ca009a699b54a1a8cfea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002370561823152087
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up o... | down | 0.000051 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11AM ET | 76,007,503 | 76,007,632 |
53a0c1eeeacaaebced0af2da3ad80772ec997eae | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xac63a7701d20f7b7b8322a67aeb9b1cf0b163ad9822b8e6dda48d42cac7e1097 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 1... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 3AM ET | 76,033,715 | 76,034,841 |
6c98f3be317daf6716df04412da5c39a91b462b3 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x3012cf4a05ae488c7d133c29eb19805bcb501aae7343c763bb9bfb2f2e06805e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 31, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-31-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.960633666439849e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | up | 0.000615 | xrp-up-or-down-september-4-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 4, 3AM ET | 76,033,872 | 76,034,098 |
aec16588f5a3dda673c05e4c636cb975528d517e | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xa5b4f6b7505f5222cf0b95df4fd95fcc29ab5cb04d22b09d95b0a217e14ffbcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.960633666439849e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down... | down | 0.00029 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-4-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 4AM ET | 76,036,626 | 76,036,687 |
e33207e5fefa7abb8602748415f9e4d9c84f899f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x4a476b712c09cf87648b98209e78a6f28a091a14207b20e156e71ce3929dcefc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-5-2am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 5, 2AM ET | 76,073,328 | 76,073,328 |
4c3fdb6d62a80385689fa41c2917036cebc424ae | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x352d34aa021ab196b4cbcbf77a0d2135de77be5caef55fd9976f112f7d3ddd74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31,... | up | 0.000178 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 2AM ET | 76,073,489 | 76,073,644 |
24a560c0f1db90125d4a00fa005f0303a2701ac8 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xdeeed896ac0acb1ffcd16c6a7ec0293b49818db6d8add17459c320163647d382 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4... | up | 0.000182 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7AM ET | 76,081,526 | 76,081,947 |
84e5ba5f77e5e6b90b3677f4f1e2638c64abe29b | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x55a7ac59b9ae26231df27e548ef8d28824224c1661d0086e9306292c79b4051a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-september-5-7am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7AM ET | 76,081,687 | 76,081,687 |
19ffcf3768b9529c5e85077cba6b39fa00670b92 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x5d37ec2490186cd0a7fba6b2180e36ecb2aeb1d5a778fdd53d37d2f22688e0d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-31-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-5-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7AM ET | 76,081,865 | 76,081,865 |
c9a187631cea53315e80c2ae56e0547951dff835 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x88bf91f9343a4b03a5bfc1ee47e2dd2130295314f844536e2a4755b11ce30bb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 31, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-31-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Sept... | up | 0.000527 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-5-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 8AM ET | 76,083,220 | 76,083,226 |
c508ce50830dc8b85c2fbff0c6b8999fcba82877 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xf2aaa93f93651dd5a339a44b6cc18f67662f9b2c13795accfe481daab13dc331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-1-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - S... | up | 0.00027 | xrp-up-or-down-september-6-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8AM ET | 76,123,802 | 76,124,512 |
676e181f13e528e70ee0e6e214b14bac041e776d | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x7d00b2c54d93a868b3dd582d97677dd6991cecf5150bede895a8c460b9a9ce1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-1-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | 76,128,737 | 76,128,737 |
279511001a0c001b5866dd7317ef27f1e7e4737c | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xe471597f3691fe01bc3667c1cb7349bc37a906971666861f16ca99ea4efbbe75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 1, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-1-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - S... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | 76,129,345 | 76,129,542 |
a9ee03490d746c89cb4a1e49657bb7846b19f687 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x3dcd194967c248e3dab9e395671a402634a40633c19d8d2b89f1c1129db1957c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-2-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Septem... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET | 76,137,243 | 76,137,410 |
ff2e825bc2b8bb6241c2b9b87936bc1004775bc0 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x4865c8d0c152a4a0c773d526e9b94e36c37a92ce99f138e668c988d345fb0c30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - September 3, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-september-3-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.769034486665553e-05
3. Question: Ethereum ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET | 76,137,904 | 76,137,904 |
25885ffae72a7d77e899262a48630bec504006c8 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xda039beac9a30b2ffec9d51f8330692d1168861eedd25e59fc27ef60d3b3cd4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 3.769034486665553e-05
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP U... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5PM ET | 76,139,000 | 76,139,000 |
5a0cffc7191b73696bc217355b827c35a411d39f | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0x2212b5afc519e06b673c29cc32eadc5d7bf8901ff05ee4e99b9983ab0f8abe17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-september-6-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 5PM ET | 76,139,044 | 76,139,044 |
b4727f56e1dfd151c0ba9bac4a7504a1b026a556 | 0x01c067c98f5516c5841b4a023bae231fbbb35443 | 0xef9b0285ea99db6201bed4390846ac6626dc735d456a7769d4ff3f929cab67f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - September 3, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-september-3-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-7am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00016672219907330453
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Do... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8AM ET | 76,164,276 | 76,164,276 |
49d8f8f8718c076b386aebe4ae0c04433051efed | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0xe25ac48f79f45c35f1ba5d4930f073fa2eea3f8c314a22a6ec1b41fd549abc00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Event: republican-vp-nominee
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 53,247,217 | 57,235,723 |
8207e8ad6c9ae76e8c3ae656d240d63d6dad8b35 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x99ca03b50ee65e84362d66964f9f0f5ae41939b86484f8e22c8f9440335dad00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII?
Event: super-bowl-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market.... | no | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | 53,410,877 | 53,410,877 |
c646d6ce7051341e02f23c9d28856400c6031a00 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x6ab3443e51f07c04e6fc2864ffadf05f00af51d6abceed49a939fd2392ce5500 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Mike Tyson wi... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | 55,230,761 | 57,691,995 |
b07542142e86925196c6511fce791e0c4c0c6416 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x2a3d31049f233dcd0a7d977cef6868e66f2f3b7024910374af55337a65ef8b20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2024 | Will Man City win the 2023-24 Champions League? | 55,952,789 | 55,952,789 |
5f14ee4580d0117a018c2b83904882d69d8fb6f4 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x0a1a5a369f188dc30e6376fb3f6cf55ffefa87f818800a5d067eb382a5dabae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | trumps-worst-state-on-march-19 | Will Arizona be Trump's worst state on March 19? | 56,140,033 | 56,140,033 |
6670a5a01a68ecef699595ad429b02d3ee6186c9 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x25ee99e8411461afc0614291383ece11315efa75bac2284590a22999024fc900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | who-will-biden-nominate-to-be-next-fdic-chairman | Will Biden nominate Sandra Thompson for FDIC Chair? | 57,315,413 | 57,315,413 |
3a6e4039c0d688aa653d21b93c6bfa0f98095e4a | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x52f28bc9d1750ee57418cc7fea6df4a99f13cfbfa26caaa7898f85b015a67100 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | republican-vp-supplemental | Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 57,468,004 | 57,468,004 |
9af8772dc830e92e1f38a207394ea7cdf71b197c | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0xe9853367eeca5c5b9c7201dd6653b7bb0e952ac0def2d6f0e39e452cf4e0ae00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | french-open-mens-singles | Will Novak Djokovic win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | 57,477,674 | 57,477,674 |
7276b781679c91644f5ef378db710a44ab6c3568 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0xb533d2283718dfd70396683862adf406bbbcb08714aa9880880c9b614dc3c300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | hustler-casino-million-dollar-game-biggest-winner-friday | Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner on Day 4? | 57,553,482 | 57,586,332 |
b7f0609943815c0e3d2438cc0b45b4e317a43afc | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x6c62df285599cc32982ad74f5014aa70c658ffa4b2503f4d6a691d9abcb36700 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | biggest-loser-million-dollar-game-day-4 | Will Alan Keating be the biggest loser on Day 4? | 57,571,790 | 57,571,790 |
50a7d0d421429cb385c16ce58b8cc103265ce648 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0xd3ab91ea2ce8959461e4795d22ff8ed11ebb6ddfbfc08d190429eea9a770d88d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | hustler-casino-million-dollar-game-biggest-winner-friday | Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner on Day 4? | 57,651,144 | 57,651,144 |
bd1d510c8bbfd753d7c98f5595aff1f31f6a5b22 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0xf34fcf553af63a7efe717e004c2b0e537e4c4e230d704530ebefcd6c13fe012d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | poirier | 1 | ufc-302 | UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier | 57,699,942 | 57,699,942 |
e307c9a48d3c9b1bff5979ae82e7606f95d0ebab | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x357c5b97a100701c20293625f844b2e077e416d4d1f341cefab9d3ee3af48d00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | next-president-of-iran | Will Mohammad Mokhber be the next President of Iran? | 57,742,174 | 57,742,174 |
c6a9c9cb5ab50df8adce185aa8420f564449c14c | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x643b1a2e13f2952d6f15a7e7fcf21952477ae1b39a9e2f42fcdf8d54df510a00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | top-scorer-nba-finals | Jayson Tatum top scorer in NBA Finals? | 57,743,220 | 57,743,220 |
a15ce6cb72e4c60a435fc707d9fd2e8925b171ed | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x3f3ae07223492f5ba2e46adba8c64c98df1995a1002d78f96434611a4b459200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? | 58,111,005 | 58,111,005 |
f012df62689edf26d828c0bc499bd024df02119a | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x054332f7e556bf009aca9f093a1f7ad7425cf7a5cc4b01fe3e04e20f1b62b3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2023-24 | Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | 58,373,504 | 58,373,504 |
858c9017646771810b8853608bafe295d02dc21e | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x849753c23a361b9c8696072789fb39bb8fa526ffcbab52f7c439f43dee54b1bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2023-24 | Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? | 58,373,504 | 58,373,504 |
399f63ba11a3f5ef0ad3c79654c22ad6eb040450 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0xfc2e2c2b1bf6cc4371f1e775b0738f8d2c67c28f64c0d09c6fe82548e0f63e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | biggest-loser-hcl-celeb-game | Alan Keating biggest loser? | 58,470,710 | 58,470,710 |
a203cb29e125a6f64ae35efd4822bca697c0f4cb | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0xb888ca0844bd94fe591925dec416be92bbd90888920548ac38b18e15c769ee54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | biggest-winner-hcl-celeb-game | Alan Keating biggest winner? | 58,517,017 | 58,517,017 |
f838068eb0c79360648ce1c9e4909dcf4ae584e5 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x31edc4c6f1a5019228ab04469da9d93850e29d12a4f96c17b2c057e02fae2300 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 59,069,780 | 59,961,078 |
105bb47ef7f393e25a1768db2249cf25fe64c51d | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x5bbef6dd73765c2e40f14dc49392ecc3233c4d925ccaf4d05ce003630227cab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | copa-america-winner | Brazil wins Copa America 2024? | 59,069,924 | 59,069,924 |
cf15aad61a1557e40f0a54b54db4ba01965d2bd3 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x6db528a803c762a17e401e751e59c6dd4776e510fb4cc093d2c28f8e1028a945 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | republican-vp-nominee | Will Lee Zeldin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | 59,422,428 | 59,422,428 |
e80d324d732403e317393e550856e3f4b808308a | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x1c27161c95cb6a3a1403641517c1d79e4e18431f75ad1a9bc1443193b1e1a246 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | copa-america-winner | Argentina wins Copa America 2024? | 59,422,466 | 59,422,466 |
89f64c66a40ee17a93c2ef7996c11bc1ca8f5db9 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x39f3ec98ba0c4b1aa5547c0c0d6a6363fd61cdf6b76fd09b413ab0ffa42f1900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | twisters-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Twisters' gross less than $56m opening weekend? | 59,457,236 | 59,457,236 |
f2471e0c8688d3036d392924717b17c70548e51e | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x9c2e902df0284513bdddc8e15ef350f1946c8e84f63ccae4169761ffb918f267 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | wsop-main-event-winner | Will Niklas Astedt win the WSOP main event? | 59,512,068 | 59,512,068 |
4229e315a95239544dee28e56e819f350a4bcc6c | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x4d4bf1b5287ef20f2f8a70d54e650bca0bae6088d38c69a70bc3ddea2189845e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | tour-de-france-winner | Will another contestant win the 2024 Tour de France? | 59,809,921 | 59,809,921 |
bd9abf19c78b3f2c3d8ee424adba86a890667fe5 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x2ddc7f4d119cc7ece2b9e4306d4642a1d62337a56b69a0c4102fb894245c1f24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Casper Ruud (NOR) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,081,306 | 60,081,306 |
ff03bc57547118fcdc77e49c80015aea48055bc2 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x8fe11bfea8cfe523d8c384b5f7b14440e461c784d9672bf469032b49ae383a57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | yes | 1 | 100m-winner-w | Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W? | 60,165,570 | 60,165,570 |
0a1c5e8460b286e71e6072a09470636819099924 | 0x01e6b6abe34f419da17b91a2aac48109cffc9dfe | 0x3f314d76d5bfc8cde0edea091450640aa7922ca918e76c6f7a7154a14992fd6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Event: republican-vp-nominee | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LVIII? | Event: super-bowl-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mike Tyson win his boxing ... | no | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,193,859 | 60,193,859 |
2b3012cdac609a66405d93a21388b58592dd5995 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x751ca25043da33cab8c9142c0172ce955bd4a8bb6a162c4f87ddaa83325bf21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04?
Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | 78,596,364 | 78,596,364 |
830cae7fdaea7712c1b8b53a3590f01fe21e3356 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x20d4b4186dd1ef583b767f162ea48e2a32a009399212255eb406739c22dfa6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?
Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"cho... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | 78,610,696 | 78,610,696 |
59ec14f6a889374a41b4b58ada8c9d2fa83fd9ce | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x86c515e6d1bb9e852347c8dc9350365ecf4da047667a794cc00173dd7d9473e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07?
Event: lal... | no | 1 | lal-elc-rso-2025-11-07 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | 78,765,432 | 78,765,432 |
017b0a056cfb5b71b572b32dc9bde8299bfc1595 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xafbef5a84d713a2aa81f87699a548be786cc2616c0073158ef99045cd1e66839 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ovi-2025-11-09 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? | 78,812,343 | 78,812,343 |
469b591211d0e1740a95399b6a9e11fbac21013e | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x4c9ccd1404d105968de9b1ff3226fbafdc0b6e402a26bbcad3a84a1b62296783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | yes | 1 | world-series-champion-2025 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | 78,813,269 | 78,813,269 |
3850875c27f5b49dbb903a5bc907bb48b97ed16c | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xb69364c52de4aef94f27264bdcf6120c7e5096f67cd995f3795d571aa1399785 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025? | 78,813,269 | 78,813,269 |
7173ea895f64da06984abe2db7c022f87eb467ff | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x971b6376b65b1d76ddd60143143b5d68b129de1f91033a2d074c6ef2e2158ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? | 78,817,613 | 78,817,613 |
967a2f987f70909d96e77d86be066740f6d21209 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x2093e2dfb656a1804e7717036763f73970bdf17ad06bf8c1b1e940b912faa106 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on November 10? | 78,852,701 | 78,852,701 |
2401ace819327336cd4519af52c3197fc76b98af | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x4bcb2c1a03c2380c74d449aee1a09e46f5a96791cad0ce39147f3117451042a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | yes | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Bangladesh win on 2025-11-13? | 79,072,208 | 79,072,208 |
c88be1d6f12c146806f7019b1246abeca5fc990c | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xb699b5016fe7a00c69f52dbdab62b9467b60ff60c4b9c96caec35c3f0b288908 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | yes | 1 | fif-ban-afg-2025-11-13 | Will Afghanistan win on 2025-11-13? | 79,072,208 | 79,072,208 |
1c997752341a583f92cbc81e3e22298505972228 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xf2989d220ae767b59973b00546c856ca43c873a3a934b5e0889f999a2764ff98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-november-10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 10? | 79,072,208 | 79,072,208 |
e451d3cae266a5acfd337745b04310525b74dedb | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xa663e4d39afc374bda02c089e528071e03981456a64b902b63f004b0740ad66f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | 79,113,139 | 79,113,139 |
c2edb6bce6d4e518381e9bac2684525e0a77816b | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x01ee91e461a1d729e1bfef10d19a40182601cac339c679853657da13b30beb0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | uef-swe-slv-2025-11-18 | Will Sweden win on 2025-11-18? | 79,226,854 | 79,226,854 |
e9e530360776c0bf432987a36a2b88e26d8cb912 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xe408c7f12fbe2332f86996cc4120d68820901321607ebce33ab52ce1811c74af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | uef-aut-bih-2025-11-18 | Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? | 79,226,854 | 79,226,854 |
2620c0453d538f11f05dd3faa3babf5cace1469b | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x17164bf3bd8cf96d6c8addde8c5cb6bd5003262a7bc2dc7750bb42894f4713d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Yuki Tsunoda achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,413,722 | 79,413,722 |
f32d01ff5f0b8f05721a8a24e7723471cdad03ec | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x328ceb0b56b99ecd67b98b2cc579bf6ad738896b02a2cb385efea9cb4927c529 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,413,722 | 79,413,722 |
842ae2a9f62a5753cb6db7eed60e7cb68445e5c9 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0x66ca1ef5a1186cdcc29d28876ae79c153399ef3e986e6b2370eaf5825f101db7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | lal-ovi-ray-2025-11-23 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-11-23? | 79,413,722 | 79,413,722 |
a89bd79c7cba21bc7c0f3237136ff268eeaa546e | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xaf89dac314482ff11b8ed35cdbf2799d7ee8d57541173f4ea570da6969d122ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Franco Colapinto achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,413,722 | 79,413,722 |
e8e0d1fca2178af7acb75d1d5583b73bd0d4618f | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xb9c4b1f3c81c9ec154d597a639a2997b511fb5c50e857f63e576ca5f00438e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Lance Stroll achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,413,722 | 79,413,722 |
f454bb08c873466a685187009376e4e246465460 | 0x01fa3b6bba01437da6235ac67a3a7205955cc2ed | 0xc27eb49d354172c31024d6b9a5ed48cbfb46179a6cd49ed972f7f3318321decf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-slp-ars-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | Event: ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-07? | Event: lal-elc-rso-20... | no | 1 | f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-fastest-lap-2025-11-22 | Will Esteban Ocon achieve the fastest lap at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 79,413,722 | 79,413,722 |
1d251f693668a798ca31c60ba5d2ca7fa845929a | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x688d96d384f6b31d50e3bf985c75d383a4082c6a4165da3c9d1da7a8fabbf585 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | 79,499,782 | 79,499,782 |
24c713007622fb6fc54b560ac4fee21ab93aac4a | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x7ca19c7ec8cdc87b465b1c88416ce54a3dbed4b0a76ed8ada7f0ad8fe03e60fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target mar... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | 79,502,246 | 79,502,246 |
cc1e7e3459ed305c070dc9627812e85564539818 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xfa9e42b62d177ec579e390ea314ff8607278907b8cb8b3672713ac141c9c2284 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 6PM ET | 79,503,581 | 79,503,581 |
4008a03bc0a64e9d6d25a6a27bc973255f77dea8 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0xb5d145ef9e616b9233f65dfdac548baafe169fe89b3b56f8b0c127ef696c1191 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | texas | 0 | cfb-txam-tx-2025-11-28 | Texas A&M vs. Texas | 79,530,700 | 79,530,700 |
7606c633614c3a77df71ea2d30988b591582ca50 | 0x020bef5a7b68dd47c133769ff6c7cbac85c1ddfa | 0x4861851580be269c5f37790743458a6fe4d7fcf21ec090e528a7fd3b47fff54a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-november-25-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Nove... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-november-26-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 10AM ET | 79,533,446 | 79,533,446 |
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