sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
333c4e1fb7a47dcc301b64c16089f5d5f2d14b18 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xc86aa16b74f67a14219b1c90f7e39bff1977be35f5c7a69f9e71ea34208f51d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors?
... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-boca-juniors | Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | 73,030,923 | 73,030,923 |
fc850293e5edf3d07b1f76f753894acd05d3324c | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xec7c1dfda491ec2f4f36b827caf265f6e70609ca3d62a853467d4c42ac7d3408 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Will Flamengo win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,030,926 | 73,030,926 |
7e654367fd7d7e4dc213eab161c0481392cf23bb | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x51ecb20f7b9fb366400c52c88bdf9870616c91a524bec92e1c9aeb4cd5a4cf3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | 73,030,978 | 73,030,978 |
9a15285b455057239d5b5c67af0ec1d15f301045 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xcaaa6740bd0d428d1a1d9de24e524a0814aa3d03a77a36774f46c25ce9b8ee63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Will Inter Milan beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | 73,069,687 | 73,069,687 |
d5bd7cdcf16715b29a0c023d968cc833ccf30e48 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xf027bfe9afd9802e136d43ccfb545780d2aaf481f6f023e3d01680d9f2533cca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-seattle-sounders | Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? | 73,148,480 | 73,148,480 |
a68ac9fa7f68dfa79b3b1a2df433b787c5727bcc | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xccf60f7f50863bf2900b2cf4196dd77fab28df7ddeb3bbf8e07ae477de2fb3fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,148,482 | 73,148,482 |
1e913ba9457827aed5c5f8d8ad2875f59fa8dee8 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x7ec21f8680dcb5771ff3434e881f0710d3a5d4e635b18b5753b0bcee1c5ee667 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,190,452 | 73,190,452 |
f12945b4dee637e2cf759da06fb45392ea37bdf1 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x71e6fc7e1373fb34d1ee941a1c05c0fbb93feefe31f96b8b9f8b906d4dc53255 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,232,118 | 73,232,118 |
6f8cab7e9426b1e876799aac78b608b86231900e | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x5e5d5cc5f87678bd3409260dfc44a6a18388c945c65d16ea49b2cd4e2e3de28d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Will Mamelodi Sundowns win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,232,123 | 73,232,123 |
8580566a2ecf58184b905592a0aa2b36baef62f9 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xde3ac88d04323c002d642c1768327eebe8c6a5ca5ccf80cf921a08f077fc3a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | 73,272,594 | 73,272,594 |
0fc45a3a7e72ff8833602d926e31e7616f6576c3 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x945566d7f7de7f5040a1dcd64823edd0e6e6fdd9d8839fb94259d0a550d3f21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,274,502 | 73,274,502 |
f55a9c74471da9030951bfa37eab03bdfb68826b | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xbc76d76861111506a40749c3dea24250877ff2281ebca74c053d2564238585eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,775,039 | 73,775,039 |
e80927e23de6f5f380b42d1003429fa4e7aea6c0 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xe2189c0d2f68d6be611f1f541ba7cd042a78e83ab24a92b9c9d6c6d293a0838f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | 73,797,041 | 73,797,041 |
95bc54ab7a88d6612d01e6107ef539f6b56f2d83 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x58e6dabcbe0b32490a7280dfe1c3cce28f10aa76dbae3740c2863742f5fc4679 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,937,290 | 73,937,290 |
1c00b68ef7e8102c30c7602958852e7ba2a67420 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x9df72373ccd6e0a23e26d0d66b4b34000b48fb6e4d5008dd7afd17e69fe3e3bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? | 76,174,304 | 76,174,304 |
a07944b8bc7846dc0b1906ee8463214895ba25a3 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x205ad48baf4fb143034cb596f11da21c5b7a099ac9da7ecf41dea6eadf88fc7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Will Israel win on 2025-09-08? | 76,257,427 | 76,257,427 |
6728118d62b99545921177ce460fbef456cad700 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x999c696edc9d63419d48164a6094711c78d4dcde8738dadbe036c512e59cba42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | uef-isr-ita-2025-09-08 | Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? | 76,257,427 | 76,257,427 |
c37b0095c6228fe6d8c7052e9167bcd6005960e1 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x6f8c747bb9e864d050ff968bea651756ef42008fb04970d7060c49839e6615a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | uef-hun-prt-2025-09-09 | Will Hungary win on 2025-09-09? | 76,273,525 | 76,273,525 |
d9dd1a4e9299e7ce6d58e1f5bc0708bedb468941 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xc7d037a13deafbb984993e134530fec2619651556c0560964c1cbec820b5c94b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | uef-fra-isl-2025-09-09 | Will Iceland win on 2025-09-09? | 76,273,525 | 76,273,525 |
1eb67ff9b0b3fe59fec0921e25602cd6d7f76a4d | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x56848d4be72f57f7b44a1100a3c384444b5c4b39528827f112ad2465a35f3e94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-not-2025-09-13 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? | 76,408,637 | 76,408,637 |
6976c70326d091ea8adffe4f032591c8be5d79f4 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x315bc10cea2926ed706b38c329481c7c7cb341e8aff417019c736347734c5c8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-val-2025-09-14 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-14? | 76,530,188 | 76,530,188 |
474eb4ea9d389c8baf82034e3787d7689ea5e33f | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xc23da160689e7759f04e69235401d9caa5a73030fcdfc46eb466ba8611b9b536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | epl-bur-liv-2025-09-14 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? | 76,530,188 | 76,530,188 |
c547d5bbd4014c9b6d4905a9500490c90740451b | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x4a0a6f3fda470bd729e7b87e7af7c987027855748fa9aeb30ae4e85ce5babb7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-mad-2025-09-17 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-17? | 76,588,597 | 76,588,597 |
eb139567fc3d1aec06c2f669773e556c902a067e | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,588,597 | 76,588,597 |
1028edb710220adddf85d16ec68600abc8b3cff1 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xc964405e53d4e01e6c1a2b6e9303bf0d77f0600f6fc7a391532c01919f0c535d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | ucl-new-bar-2025-09-18 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? | 76,627,662 | 76,627,662 |
f0c96fdf9aec35ec85b8c8ba4c4a4485c23bf779 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x08144b2cb16d11a7654febda8ba82a1353f44852a4fe07d27616f783ca92a4ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-rso-2025-09-19 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19? | 76,668,213 | 76,668,213 |
faa62906e6727a4eae3795988fa62845cd55749c | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x4c8f38d196475819708624fdf048989703716a2f2469b4bf8ffbe6c116c66f2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | lal-bar-get-2025-09-21 | Will Getafe win on 2025-09-21? | 76,750,675 | 76,750,675 |
87bea92aee23de5fa5721d36c561273cc3f76604 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xc38beadaa618a47384edfb76249db9b1ce4b0f4f649bb8a96fc10a01e6079793 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | no | 1 | uel-bet-not-2025-09-24 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-24? | 76,889,357 | 76,889,357 |
ed60b059b6b4af1544dd44ce06125584fa3ca422 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x2d53f86232fd5b9fafe921335a3282b1eed3349393bd90cfad3337331423cc5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus beat Al Ain? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-ain-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa... | yes | 1 | uel-ast-bol-2025-09-25 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25? | 76,911,793 | 76,911,793 |
fb4fd87820e9359123f13c3ffc4a9900e234b4d0 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xad01427b5bf8f9d38c1cac814d501076a9789c8abdb6b88c656374a998950294 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Italy beat Moldova? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-italy-vs-moldova | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-boca-juniors | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Flamengo win Group D at ... | yes | 1 | fl1-psg-aja-2025-09-27 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,993,268 | 76,993,268 |
87c5872c2f4fd376dca4aa78cafb27a6fd969bec | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x2a466b96d679bc94db4338f8b0c21aaf640cd5cdffb1908762861bf81f0929c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich beat Boca Juniors? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-boca-juniors | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Flamengo win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? | 77,034,596 | 77,034,596 |
9df475cbbefe7c5214595508472a205a2f4fd675 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xda469b50770caacc6d2e9f74e4b5b81d072e7c8874d2fb2191d8dc51c3b56065 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Flamengo win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Ur... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-nap-2025-09-28 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28? | 77,034,596 | 77,034,596 |
c70d463d3baa3a9d824f75551c9147a270b33cf8 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x0d3b02928225924cb83ed5af59e60060fe333569b01302395a4233234ea67275 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Flamengo? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-flamengo-vs-chelsea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? | ... | no | 1 | ucl-nap-spo-2025-10-01 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-01? | 77,179,946 | 77,179,946 |
492c815c9f8942f0302cd6b89a0c92c13b8db2bb | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xc8f58cc49fb7e8ea835289b968bb6ac84c666e91cf7ed164e4214527f9a9277f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-seattle-sounders | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain w... | no | 1 | ucl-vil-juv-2025-10-01 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,179,946 | 77,179,946 |
dd9217e11d81fecb3c64323660ca662bf105ea82 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x57427bc04459258cc5d2fa57d363ced858dac9849836a761f553b7c7546f2169 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-seattle-sounders | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-cry-2025-10-05 | Will Everton win on 2025-10-05? | 77,300,601 | 77,300,601 |
d8994a6486178000d391cf39836bd55de290a65f | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xb3dd88190336de8fcf092900964ee326f7ae72d82f4a867cf5cbd6874ecf5b4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-b-winner-886 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 0.999898 | lal-sev-bar-2025-10-05 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-05? | 77,302,498 | 77,302,498 |
cdbe5893fbe6f80434e6e2c8fe889b460fef5eb6 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x6ee4be5c69de0f36d0de2690f0851205fb577c68472f1caa2c665aa437df5e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-c-winner-663 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-gen-2025-10-05 | Will Napoli win on 2025-10-05? | 77,316,657 | 77,316,657 |
16a65ea8a0562693a4eccad939db18c6732851ac | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x15dd8d248404d9b70f9ee58f4e85f09fa22cc39c06338ae482053789e0b595bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mamelodi Sundowns win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Will Italy win on 2025-10-14? | 77,701,436 | 77,701,436 |
baef3502b21e759136d5172c3affae75ed173eed | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x5722044c376bc05dd556720aed749275ee4a188c9e4fbb066be27f64b61ea357 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mamelodi Sundowns win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | uef-ita-isr-2025-10-14 | Will Israel win on 2025-10-14? | 77,701,436 | 77,701,436 |
211bf1ca79d4bbd2d39a8a0cea1b513754925da1 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x93f48edd121f80608edfa38179d2e82762bd9774ea8f127c7089c4901ec05261 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Will Fiorentina win on 2025-10-19? | 77,940,943 | 77,940,943 |
a352f9e34d333d7472b49e4dca031453662fb0fb | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0xa9b4d63db8031fbc369d863e1e9dea77296ab49ddade6793f1938fe0c76e7d10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? | 77,940,943 | 77,940,943 |
6e3ead239588b6f35ce53e0f9c366d7bb0935fc7 | 0x10a348a968b83333a9668c35312b80429f07ae13 | 0x188a769e534021cbb3f978fa22c673e9ff6ed90dff1d9e857c7c3df5a5c791e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? | 78,179,730 | 78,179,730 |
68651a1c95e26fc8e6c3ef17051d29bb94ee1672 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x85f902a1263b5045c0c100ceba913d569286b141075ec063e3afd57eabd55605 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | new york yankees | 0 | mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 70,501,715 | 70,501,715 |
ef2b814bac3fcf6e7e8fd56a032f0616a89dc543 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5690d773848d9c83c16a05719af4d3edbcabf02a3194520604ea5b68fa407318 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20?
Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON... | no | 1 | epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | 70,548,334 | 70,548,345 |
d6db1417f46ae8031265fae0e0934d254266b8be | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x636d2d1f87f28645f1f107e0048987fdf19b302c961ff7864be7ef5d768ca69b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20?
Event:... | no | 1 | epl-ful-che-2025-04-20 | Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | 70,548,541 | 70,548,541 |
923cd376a2fe0c80205471ce0b7afb921babf673 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xe3f2edf3e154ed51e77b5087927a9386678c0aed81a58bd8761132c291a22d85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | avalanche | 0.333337 | nhl-playoffs-stars-vs-avalanche-to-advance | NHL Playoffs: Stars vs. Avalanche (To Advance) | 70,621,610 | 70,621,610 |
4ca90e3522ccfb00ff1023ed434a398fe984d7fb | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x38e477094381854b31b5f23d2fef71c681061cfa366ac69bf6062f2618883443 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | arizona diamondbacks | 0 | mlb-tb-ari-2025-04-22 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 70,621,610 | 70,654,114 |
baebfc6cc466e7c569079c48192677c1866fedc3 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xf3b75b3c0b852e38635bc7cc567c523e66d45a06017bfc0038e46e06114074ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | nuggets | 1 | nba-den-lac-2025-04-24 | Nuggets vs. Clippers | 70,735,582 | 70,735,582 |
66b89863633fc1dce4ca47f77625df1a8ef0c296 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x277b94fdc81f1c109b470daf959c25c6a4e6af52e50bc85b80b343b456604184 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | epl-wol-lei-2025-04-26 | Will Wolves win on 2025-04-26? | 70,798,675 | 70,798,675 |
edff1eed13009127b66de46db382a6b008edaf34 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x53dd1d9654e394094b10c6959d69cbb6b369ffcbb5991480d941ba119868c2d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | epl-sou-ful-2025-04-26 | Will Fulham win on 2025-04-26? | 70,798,675 | 70,798,675 |
5abadc1e8520a0177a6d89ccf8913e2106016ed3 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xd51797a7f9404cfec3a3ee7cfb8532f40bc1e9a3db56fa7193b422773b63bb44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | epl-bou-mun-2025-04-27 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27? | 70,830,124 | 70,830,124 |
ec8e3b513b4b28dd2fbf6929aa78519ed743e076 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,952,355 | 70,952,355 |
64456142505ecf747aa5ce91b078768c18c0be18 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x46d97b2af88fdd220693efe03f1c3c0c9770847abcd31e1b2fb26550770f3124 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | ucl-bar-int-2025-04-30 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? | 70,978,088 | 70,978,088 |
3c8f9f4245b377e5ec2df7715e56dfb329c29346 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x911a5ecf1580b892da0edcc38dad6d3377dbe25eaa51e16fdf6b8214d032341a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-01? | 71,016,508 | 71,016,508 |
924b11b09760e8c13e4438d426a87cc2f78045f5 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x3ed82566f3c0ae637ab5fa7d81e2b7b3e77bfeb5f2278ca5333e8c534b1cfabb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | royals | 1 | mlb-kc-bal-2025-05-04 | Royals vs. Orioles | 71,122,471 | 71,122,471 |
67934970d0b240fab83899c0e0c571fd443697f8 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x10bb455936cf8f22777bdb8d3a1b97760cae2215d60c15001c5d252c0f26478e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,239,748 | 71,239,748 |
4f6fad596392f71e60756a8b1d42aea6990cc2bf | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,239,748 | 71,239,748 |
5996e8235e5274001b58580889887146dbfb212d | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x266d44ee0b7047da7ee0f141fc610768bebed35ce8d7d66c1275761db5146cef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | uel-mun-ath-2025-05-08 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? | 71,302,986 | 71,302,986 |
83f1a621fbe972ff0c1e691d0fa9a3a187329c69 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xc0e885cb9eda565246a82090fa65afc77c868d98653f334250641241459f5ccd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | uel-bod-tot-2025-05-08 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08? | 71,302,986 | 71,302,986 |
cf8988a78c343ef018fcecf8fe726298c7f98d8f | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x2acc650bb7fff01ee3bbf23b74d70aecb5d0817702a870a9ad51f4a9544b6eed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | maple leafs | 1 | nhl-playoffs-maple-leafs-vs-panthers-to-advance | NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (To Advance) | 71,878,244 | 71,878,244 |
ff58dc72e2da125eb70c84f1f5c01ad4e68d53fe | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5fc28bfcb6f16080415695b53f1f60820f403a94ce16696eea2f0085d823bc92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,878,244 | 71,878,244 |
c533076a0de712e8b7ef55f5ad19c277cbf95465 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x68ef589cde76bca7ace88f9e1048f912e9e1cf0c0e89d89637786ad19d1f45ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | dodgers | 0.386984 | mlb-nym-lad-2025-06-03 | Mets vs. Dodgers | 72,335,811 | 72,335,811 |
a99c04e09b4bd88aeb8f613775ddc3af10fd8975 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x9ec8d6e703a003aeb80f416484e02a55c4ee227fd3e5e6904ef2c5f81bf70959 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | brewers | 0 | mlb-mil-cin-2025-06-03 | Brewers vs. Reds | 72,335,811 | 72,339,868 |
6819009152b89768e4e1e3b8d5a677d2fb5ce2a6 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x38f2b4242a610471b1f6c2c5c48c5522ddc733d7ce79d46148535c8579db60bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | tigers | 0 | mlb-det-cws-2025-06-05 | Tigers vs. White Sox | 72,398,965 | 72,411,513 |
b5424dc80318ceb586ff16f3feb04efb653834fa | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x9ffeef541ea740e1f50db55a57895fbe4f962fc4e329a3d6c51dfb2f9d8ad54c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | legacy | 1 | blasttv-austin-major-stage-2-faze-vs-legacy | BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: FaZe vs. Legacy | 72,533,286 | 72,533,286 |
df41c90470e6683a0ac291c4007029c191ec4d66 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x21d7c804b66f91d22c8b5979b447f9abccd551930640fa75af6ebc6896ac5aae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Will Spain beat Portugal? | 72,539,920 | 72,539,920 |
729afee05759e29804d19d385f1c11ae1c7c3950 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x3412b14dce0757fb7b6d3b2c722330304d85c88b1591e127641b2653b3f6a05a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-finland-vs-poland-514 | Will Poland beat Finland? | 72,618,185 | 72,618,185 |
fcdb9264c67c21ef9d91933a1d74a73c400625c1 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x4c5fa178fc904b56bf7cc99a4a5ffd5b0e0880dba99a982b86c369a98984c407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Will Argentina beat Colombia? | 72,636,482 | 72,636,489 |
b309156249a317a97a52e597186d1104f7ecb941 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x13b72929a74063224d125624de0bd3a1a699510302cb4d998ae838a2e96932a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Will Brazil beat Paraguay? | 72,636,489 | 72,636,489 |
6e315c1abc4e2563b0fac75cd8a54d7128c58a01 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x37e5a87507d097c129bbcb92adf77627f977875ed77300e4a4fe403866c1a140 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | yes | 1 | fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | 72,636,489 | 72,636,489 |
8cfff774670a321cb3ed0faf54c739cfa72d11ec | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5f44701dc0507e5374f1465a5701eaf811a3bba049f8fe4c4d8530b4414babeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | diamondbacks | 0 | mlb-sea-ari-2025-06-11 | Mariners vs. Diamondbacks | 72,638,535 | 72,656,582 |
91710d106f65fe366c5a5921f8eba3daf6f4a5e1 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5b9d67c0dcf4338ecc689c3246c345cda964187f9d2b6758ee5dbf82e9ec88c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | no | 1 | mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Will New York City FC beat Atlanta United FC? | 72,716,760 | 72,716,760 |
77635f401428451d75d104b5161332a3bc7221dd | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x8a0591e1f75ff71f6f2925efd05312995f94dde17fbb41c7d18732298a18bc7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Event: mlb-nyy-tb-2025-04-19 | Choice: new york yankees | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-ch... | angels | 0 | mlb-laa-bal-2025-06-13 | Angels vs. Orioles | 72,734,830 | 72,734,830 |
ead1e4c06d6dc241bd72af7a6a14fc8126381daf | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x55d6600ea4de4b2dbb7142c91aa1e405d865622b924e5295d29b433f4ffd3cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-mun-wol-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-che-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: NHL Playoffs: Stars vs. Avalanche (To Advance) | Event: nhl-playoffs... | no | 1 | mls-portland-timbers-vs-san-jose-earthquakes | Will Portland Timbers beat San Jose Earthquakes? | 72,757,464 | 72,757,464 |
9c044d051966de7c306d205b5bc4df477df002da | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x21f3459a3a8fc82c56b0206e4d4dbcdead14ce840e73d824ffbb828f876982c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-20? | Event: epl-ful-che-2025-04-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: NHL Playoffs: Stars vs. Avalanche (To Advance) | Event: nhl-playoffs-stars-vs-avalanche-to-advance | Choice: avalanche | Confidence: 0.33333665023047354
3. Question: Tampa Bay Rays vs. A... | no | 1 | uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | 72,779,757 | 72,779,757 |
d7f4f7b0eb4a6bdf2e10aee5512eae3aea8b6773 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x03b707b35c9d04aab230e5543c7140277a4d4b430b7bb2d9a843247402950c76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NHL Playoffs: Stars vs. Avalanche (To Advance) | Event: nhl-playoffs-stars-vs-avalanche-to-advance | Choice: avalanche | Confidence: 0.33333665023047354
2. Question: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-tb-ari-2025-04-22 | Choice: arizona diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Ques... | no | 1 | mls-st-louis-city-sc-vs-la-galaxy | Will LA Galaxy beat St. Louis SC? | 72,782,764 | 72,783,055 |
e52fef2d5580aa238837be960a5452be99390c51 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xb82deed6a6e05ef0a0e74c7f2b557229dacb0de34d2eba76d5fe6c072f9edc62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-tb-ari-2025-04-22 | Choice: arizona diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nuggets vs. Clippers | Event: nba-den-lac-2025-04-24 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-04-26? | Event: epl-wol-lei-2025-0... | yes | 1 | mls-st-louis-city-sc-vs-la-galaxy | Will St. Louis City SC beat LA Galaxy? | 72,783,055 | 72,783,055 |
6e20a2e72c79b33f6f02b18a77adc146cd3a0426 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5844c062cef913e0d160a5076e6dce75a0e92d5c00e7703ea5e5a77c1b256043 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nuggets vs. Clippers | Event: nba-den-lac-2025-04-24 | Choice: nuggets | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-04-26? | Event: epl-wol-lei-2025-04-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-26? | Event: epl-sou-ful-2025-04-26 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | 72,894,049 | 72,906,863 |
c9fa5d91fa3de00f57fe7925a988665cf15dabd0 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xe656907d12fbf22101208a6f314c0909a0035a01348959ec6b6e5333b5a16fd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-04-26? | Event: epl-wol-lei-2025-04-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-26? | Event: epl-sou-ful-2025-04-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27? | Event: epl-bou-mun-2025-04-27 | Cho... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-ulsan-hyundai-vs-mamelodi-sundowns | Will Mamelodi Sundowns beat Ulsan Hyundai? | 72,919,206 | 72,919,206 |
8afa232c6a06c5dc4099f06d1450ceff5d72da66 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xc922294385effa14de1974384ec056fc939dd0aa4cfe1a12784583cb95ba9736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-04-26? | Event: epl-sou-ful-2025-04-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27? | Event: epl-bou-mun-2025-04-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-... | marlins | 1 | mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-18 | Phillies vs. Marlins | 72,966,854 | 72,966,854 |
44df9975eddb137d941303ebd53e4c0a09bdb8fc | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xea8ae13f535886d36d71c56abfc64eb50aed95d78823f209318fa706ebc03854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27? | Event: epl-bou-mun-2025-04-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? | Eve... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | 73,013,077 | 73,013,077 |
ecee8e37b90b02e528fe6b8cb31336bfe0df074e | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x96a3319e7d75dcd767eb24889f94ce547fb9220fedd502efd2ea7fc9518147d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? | Event: ucl-bar-int-2025-04-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-01? | Eve... | the mongolz | 1 | blasttv-austin-major-faze-vs-the-mongolz | BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ | 73,023,263 | 73,023,263 |
64ee51ed55bf8cd9d92e9a78b462c78016ba70c9 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x6964358a638f8db65b19aa710d942bb3a702438a58533470614a71ce096d2161 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? | Event: ucl-bar-int-2025-04-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-01? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Royals vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-kc-bal-2025-05-04 | Choice: royal... | rountree jr. | 0.000004 | ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. | 73,054,313 | 73,054,313 |
1fc34a9650b75db054593f5b2085275ba991c90a | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x67aa15005e354d79f2d0e534b27c96298f9624330babdfca04a8881428d9316b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-01? | Event: epl-not-bre-2025-05-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Royals vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-kc-bal-2025-05-04 | Choice: royals | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-... | elliott | 0 | ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | UFC Fight Night: Ko vs. Elliott | 73,054,313 | 73,066,258 |
16b9d828f9d4cfafc6f2390c51c67d3579c34852 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x380dd4fe1e6a1d252416b544aec7d30a3ed54402f311f5e72c27a35aeab92b63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Royals vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-kc-bal-2025-05-04 | Choice: royals | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 202... | tigers | 1 | mlb-det-tb-2025-06-22 | Tigers vs. Rays | 73,097,420 | 73,097,420 |
d881ad0a03c0b161d7c2a5a5a49695b66aef2ea1 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x86ddb7bb4453c9e39f77dfc062552d2d252b568ade0becdea0f83cbec0a6ae98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-al-hilal-vs-pachuca | Will Al Hilal beat Pachuca? | 73,285,365 | 73,285,365 |
2c57c2ed942786948fe24b5cc5b87a71ef2be5a2 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xcd4f0e50efa05d09457ee316131d11630503d82a1667eaa36c3d52ec1fae9626 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? | Event: uel-mun-ath-2025-05-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08?... | no | 1 | psg-vs-bayern-munich-regulation-time | Will PSG beat Bayern Munich in regulation time? | 73,628,275 | 73,628,275 |
3fa75b364dc72eb05b8e9d880a4bf148363141fb | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x921aa309d9de959c69ca39773c17a63a332d7535957fb354098992b9dc0dfc70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? | Event: uel-mun-ath-2025-05-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08? | Event: uel-bod-tot-2025-05-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (To Advance) | Event: nhl-... | orioles | 0.000005 | mlb-bal-atl-2025-07-06 | Orioles vs. Braves | 73,653,630 | 73,655,175 |
efe41e6e8437fbdc9b1d9937dc1505112ca7a0aa | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x671b31af60418c71bf13a0862986a1770ee2815819989654ad066aacce54a43c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08? | Event: uel-bod-tot-2025-05-08 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (To Advance) | Event: nhl-playoffs-maple-leafs-vs-panthers-to-advance | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Simion w... | diamondbacks | 0 | mlb-kc-ari-2025-07-06 | Royals vs. Diamondbacks | 73,655,175 | 73,671,074 |
5b6463d3790bc2e90acb6eb344763573e979d4f4 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x95f6b0814cff01922a5e151c417aff52601ba23357b47da4e3ef0a16543b6039 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (To Advance) | Event: nhl-playoffs-maple-leafs-vs-panthers-to-advance | Choice: maple leafs | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | phillies | 0 | mlb-cin-phi-2025-07-06 | Reds vs. Phillies | 73,657,029 | 73,666,505 |
7841ae594c9cc5f58cc26c2d9d190ddc4dfaf09e | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x4dcb5e5a85bafa6121918cd7902b6c28df0c474a2f45be0b8ffad75dfaf39605 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mets vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-nym-lad-2025-06-03 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.38698431679305817
3. Question: Brewers vs. Reds | Event: mlb... | guardians | 0.009771 | mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-07 | Guardians vs. Astros | 73,689,569 | 73,705,860 |
442dd3dcb52756264585ccb23ae20773d9559bb1 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x8ceb1981e9bbbbacd2ce722167607a6d7934288ee3e6ab716e9074a3456101d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mets vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-nym-lad-2025-06-03 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.38698431679305817
2. Question: Brewers vs. Reds | Event: mlb-mil-cin-2025-06-03 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-06-05 | Choice: tigers | Confidenc... | angels | 0.047538 | mlb-tex-laa-2025-07-07 | Rangers vs. Angels | 73,691,246 | 73,711,355 |
e539ad16cab3379cee72dea165e45f345ff6f5e1 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xc32d41e922a906ea00fa8e24fd72250e7f46de7b0ed454f4f83f2c8b097c3ee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Brewers vs. Reds | Event: mlb-mil-cin-2025-06-03 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-06-05 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: FaZe vs. Legacy | Event: blasttv-austin-major-stage-2-faze-vs-l... | thunder | 1 | nba-okc-phi-2025-07-07 | Thunder vs. 76ers | 73,715,038 | 73,715,038 |
2d791a4a4756497fbd15452256d8e1e02092d75c | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xfbf79e9d25fefe74ff234a9e9be69a88e4b6311438d7e4ba257e11063304dee0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tigers vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-det-cws-2025-06-05 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: FaZe vs. Legacy | Event: blasttv-austin-major-stage-2-faze-vs-legacy | Choice: legacy | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nati... | brewers | 1 | mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-07 | Dodgers vs. Brewers | 73,716,353 | 73,716,353 |
f666f2034c3dd1e5120f2b0284ff9d31509743e5 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x39776adc0adbf41c7997f832f63c5b95aafa1dffd5fbd4a03be83c265e1eba1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: FaZe vs. Legacy | Event: blasttv-austin-major-stage-2-faze-vs-legacy | Choice: legacy | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Poland beat Finland? | ... | guardians | 0.042283 | mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-08 | Guardians vs. Astros | 73,738,121 | 73,749,514 |
da267f72018a2cb290e1f7bdc0767e4eba4e8cc9 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x1e4a3a605a2bd6971564edb29de1e691cd1091a9874470930b153c5a6388b52b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain beat Portugal? | Event: uefa-nations-league-portugal-vs-spain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Poland beat Finland? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-finland-vs-poland-514 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world... | rays | 0.03234 | mlb-tb-det-2025-07-08 | Rays vs. Tigers | 73,738,121 | 73,756,469 |
6541e071299679f7b6ac86681d300d44c8894429 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xa40388f881c43497366d97d69cc7e7bb957111a3767248f054f545732b78722b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Poland beat Finland? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-finland-vs-poland-514 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brazil beat Paraguay? | Ev... | brewers | 0 | mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-08 | Dodgers vs. Brewers | 73,741,515 | 73,744,352 |
903129dd6776fa6e9d9732b97b278ff5aa19e3ed | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x9e6c7dccfd9c48392c7442f4037991fba955ed610ecab90140a7b03ac51cc86b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-argentina-vs-colombia-769 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brazil beat Paraguay? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end ... | no | 1 | psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time? | 73,789,818 | 73,789,818 |
bbed3578a13c6090d1abdaaa4ca740ab91a32df8 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x7ffc4f1a34c2250cd55754a0d4a9f107234b8a3db69997f1874eb7ae690f6a7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brazil beat Paraguay? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Mariners vs. Diamondb... | no | 1 | mls-soccer-new-england-vs-inter-miami | Will Inter Miami beat New England Revolution? | 73,809,459 | 73,809,459 |
0215e1968e428bf18b4437b086826c29315f6ab3 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x295199b6a1d0ac8cb78add98e6e6c5d6ac7ece47584bc3a36ecdd7a5c17c4756 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brazil vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Event: fifa-world-cup-qualifiers-brazil-vs-paraguay-673 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mariners vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sea-ari-2025-06-11 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will New York City FC beat Atlanta Uni... | athletics | 0 | mlb-atl-oak-2025-07-10 | Braves vs. Athletics | 73,815,634 | 73,833,687 |
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