sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2c8ba898f632f04dbb4298d52db099285497abec | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x852a640a1181f7ffa4c01bc89df03b4713acade56d09a92248eb49122d128b7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | 78,066,737 | 78,066,737 |
926153838f40e78f1ac36165c5724ed1a748df7e | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x9b2cf4c36dd7ab2a6caff4b0cab7346dd104dec3661658260eb68bac2bc9da77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | 78,088,550 | 78,088,550 |
1e252a22e7436bf476214e9970d5b9e327b11b67 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xc8bc38f06d60975db4944c6d44a8bde57a51fbbd8b63796fcbcfb6ae41ac9ea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | 78,088,555 | 78,088,555 |
4776e99a93025152fc1ca040824c3b15208740b5 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xcabbe324f6a4f71a6536618b3f1f30a12ed1ce4ef5f7e34192d4b8bcd3416d40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | 78,103,650 | 78,103,650 |
4735f099786763d852d557bd8b13871a5647b621 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x9b59303062898962b941cad5dbae74c150d0f11793a8721607854dad97ed5be0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | 78,108,639 | 78,108,639 |
17426e7729343e12ddc3031439853a4769bb0994 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xdfcb7ac150b2f6a10813611053029e625228938850f927958a7fba0b734e61ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6AM ET | 78,144,705 | 78,144,705 |
0cd4926a7487bb2f0438320aca52b7b7d1db465b | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xbe158e11a4f7cb9fbd9ed3bab0a6b82e8b0b53ca99ea6e274caca7b65e181505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00012229495422700287
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7AM ET | 78,144,708 | 78,144,708 |
5291ffb63c6b7e56b98c822a8f88fa36e751496a | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x937365f731e14a6db3b8288f4fd3520a2efca4bc71313c70c42ad451fa326dc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00012229495422700287
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4AM ET | 78,183,605 | 78,183,605 |
f10ac1ffd3ad9e8641095221ce2dab02377190e2 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x84574db334b4b2aea74b73082b23bc064d907c99ef1d3d9d0bddae1dddac2777 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | up | 0.000049 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET | 78,188,333 | 78,188,333 |
72f2069a76dccd1112f54282271e196560f5ff54 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x7702447bb58419228328132df3e2bd5fbbc2b017dbace825b143a10a5698b906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octo... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET | 78,193,104 | 78,193,104 |
2eecc577300affb38b6e83893ebe3d2d0de4b566 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x5bd5a205fdd8ec874b51e04df1c3e0e19cc4d5a930f99579473b6489034164af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octo... | down | 0.000321 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET | 78,193,109 | 78,193,109 |
9e1973483a67f6fb8749ab75d17b3a50dc5b58ea | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x1527760488882c4ef4ea61fb7dd9e2990cf6cd22d6062d5320104141496cc208 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.4840220228868196e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10PM ET | 78,214,751 | 78,214,751 |
b8f61b6641350480766baaf7660f796b24308750 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xe3bbd5fdb5be67890cda6796566f92d7f6cef2daf9b81431f9303a1f56042b48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.4840220228868196e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | up | 0.000093 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2AM ET | 78,222,146 | 78,222,146 |
b0bb565a23bdd9ecb02d91c7f8dfe940754d53ce | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x32f61482cfe6e7bcc823b652ce0b1a300dce413291d49ca6b20cbc99f7341765 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0.00008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3AM ET | 78,224,602 | 78,224,602 |
d2e4061c79016402a693951f4e6c1a8734139e36 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x52d0fb970923f096380162b7667a4a836f8960408052f4d06c8d55c5a1f226b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.440055354011834e-06
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | down | 0.00008 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4AM ET | 78,225,757 | 78,225,757 |
b3c8ff567cc6abfd3324f9f3e009d20f69be713e | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xf1d6508dbd4f0a1c07b9b93507aa9032c9f70614f0f690d44115970b10921f43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 7.440055354011834e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET | 78,233,759 | 78,233,759 |
78dda93aee6d6ea3709bf6dc595448694cf8f6cf | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xbe096ea447a9bd48b9b6aecaeb6a65e32bb89a2e94af53ddc4aec81cef7567e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0.000111 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9AM ET | 78,236,118 | 78,236,118 |
30ea21b48d572c30dfa0560c7d5a206b7eb7ae0c | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x79f765d65bb49cf28a12f0ab13aa68ac8f9181129dfe7f9750c386fcb4b5b82f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-27-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10AM ET | 78,238,027 | 78,238,027 |
48ef49a9ef2316ea76ec8bd43189fdc2ccc67200 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xdfbc6c0fbaeeab0a87a73a5d8fd95246c26343787d92738fc5d2ec9d8a124f67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.940244048055974e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin U... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-28-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12AM ET | 78,262,642 | 78,262,642 |
3ea722c1521bb5866456adab4e2777a0f9b696de | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xe5055ac3af84624e81258480f890fbcd2757780ad54532ab8c1a6ff560d521ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.940244048055974e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.000568339492970999
3. Ques... | up | 0.000222 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-30-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8PM ET | 78,383,815 | 78,383,815 |
f1fa22a129cbcb78951e828d9a84e62e818fa4b2 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x2d669099a9d387e1c4e144ccf43d9523f057cf9b36f9c55c37f509f31be4344f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.000568339492970999
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-10pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00018530884668835885
3. Que... | t1 | 0.111085 | lol-al-t1-2025-10-31 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | 78,399,511 | 78,399,511 |
182fedd68faf80296ec7beaf7169287baf33cf5e | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x4860a6cdb643650b3f2571cc592236093775a6c116b1e1d9864c250f0678085d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15?
Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | 77,753,853 | 77,753,853 |
1d9938790fbdff77e7a11c38f55b33dddbfb4270 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xb88abb8f7a2e569f41b804acaf252757668552858ed5527347edbc632531656d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17?
Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict... | no | 1 | arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | 77,855,743 | 77,855,743 |
67aa0cfd1d30c2555dd8eba95a30ba74fd43e103 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xcbd6ed1698e9653bc6a2cd23bd67b6709f25c20dc094becaf817a9bcb7909e4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 20... | no | 1 | epl-not-che-2025-10-18 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | 77,855,743 | 77,855,743 |
faaf960122789fc3ec98df83d77128135c7e6606 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xf61f6adb4cba46c1cafd8f5a790402eed0e399d2622e1616cd63e3726c31a2f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | mls-vwh-dal-2025-10-18 | Will FC Dallas win on 2025-10-18? | 77,882,511 | 77,882,511 |
adf82534b74b71f95797ebeb059eb79eff890157 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x2dbb00715c0e2e2ea354b860e9b1a881502c5656a67c64c58a09264361710a47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | bra-bah-gre-2025-10-19 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-19? | 77,948,167 | 77,948,167 |
b994c4cee80294eb523c0625a08801de90b8cfeb | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x8b0e6f05fc23d102b1fee05940b6bf053c800c4a3a9f523b1c930e25c72e5901 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | mex-maz-ame-2025-10-24 | Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-10-24? | 78,143,490 | 78,143,490 |
df9077e1b969a47c15727d2e40ce807cd9e19cb4 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xbe4dbe7c3ff5fadd2f26ba05ba8725d79f6c15f530b2a502b9cd1ee13dc2597e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | jap-rey-yok-2025-10-25 | Will Yokohama FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,143,490 | 78,143,490 |
61ec629642107e6b59399b1482b46ff665b11811 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x2fc64c99025a481464b6e2f22874dbf52d6bf28de56fcab2c17456dc9598dbcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | bra-sao-bah-2025-10-25 | Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-25? | 78,181,225 | 78,181,225 |
06294ed9237d2d230b8595e75f1ddddb1669a25c | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xc4d9ab16ee2ae5aba27a02ab3d135d67acfeb042d547356376ad86f90f52d3ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-26? | 78,206,440 | 78,206,440 |
632fa07c0271f5003a428570ae305648d62087fd | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x1fe4de5a441dca98eb0a4c2822758e1da3097c54cef5d83230e8b254b4c12094 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | sud-cam-ind1-2025-10-28 | Will Independiente del Valle win on 2025-10-28? | 78,313,892 | 78,313,892 |
c408e8971f616bb3c02948ce131c82f48968d322 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xbcfd625d9a285f091ad6ef6128dabec846481f7e63586d5c0334c75202cbf46a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-29? | 78,337,816 | 78,337,816 |
ee7172a857709eda068ac715ba49c2cb7f599865 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xeea3f1c7d1e1351745e8a46ef0b1dbf06cced2f4233d2c32b16ff63451809a89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | mls-laf-aus-2025-10-29 | Will Austin FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,365,146 | 78,365,146 |
6982df057a0bd0626749de2c5f0ce556a1cd3b94 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x9d71e0d617528877a4e09048e529ee507adfeb24120fff6a76fd62188cdd0820 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | mex-nec-san-2025-10-31 | Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2025-10-31? | 78,443,779 | 78,443,779 |
b9e870ae3788dff5f33fede33dfbd26b47201cca | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xe50f53f2ceb1b0d84c50965d79ace758a49bead456a555ecba7fa8571c7b647a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | kor-dae1-seo-2025-11-01 | Will FC Seoul win on 2025-11-01? | 78,443,779 | 78,443,779 |
8e612bf3d91842a9173c84ff16134f2cce068450 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x21a921b2d2ffa9855cccb85a8bb8d41a11fb9c2a1d42f7430632063ba1921ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2025-11-01 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01? | 78,471,881 | 78,471,881 |
c639d3b257bba870124e347fc257bb051f37f587 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x810d3792827891047ec398480858dbcf21523c96635e0ff71d0f3869ac6badd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | bra-cru-vit-2025-11-01 | Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-01? | 78,471,881 | 78,471,881 |
9569b4ccb4a9f6e7857675e2557ea6efc4e51d07 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xefa8f682cb7a6157877383c649c8e9cdae042951598a5d66d413f6527b8a54db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | mex-ame-leo-2025-11-01 | Will Club León FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,494,992 | 78,494,992 |
5bf946ad5a1ae3ca95de4dc8a0f9ae277ee86126 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xccae652bf7f866fbd0ff7542906a94f045b798b640126f1276b9979311868e72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | sea-tor-pis-2025-11-02 | Will Pisa SC win on 2025-11-02? | 78,504,216 | 78,504,216 |
496713b869e1779d456f63edff531c3bac4c4343 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xf91034e124dca154c5082f30dc4524340217ea8ec3e51786edb1e180096495e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | fl1-rcl-lor-2025-11-02 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-02? | 78,506,801 | 78,506,801 |
4b15d4afb39f7a4c425b6a6932ab78c4ea65436a | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x6170d1e2b23483654cbbb7485d5c6f24bd8f55fc258a2c2bb0e343e1d035d717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-05? | 78,671,700 | 78,671,700 |
b39d7dc5d7e25128cce886ae8cb4898be8046c6f | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xa4742b0ca4d353f98bbc06ac1f9716121011315915073dbcc455f106f5b87798 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? | 78,671,700 | 78,671,700 |
652fd3461aa208451ae175e9f798532efe3e66aa | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xbaaa39bbec96c4304a8fc933378632e335107e9bcf60c7d621ff0cb5c5fc7f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-kai-2025-11-05 | Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? | 78,671,700 | 78,671,700 |
60d8db68e0ffd8f4cdec9dc843753380e964db7b | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xf61eec0d13966a6a8c8776f536550bdfdc447b0a8b21ae6274fa8008770d8c8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | ucl-new-ath-2025-11-05 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-05? | 78,671,700 | 78,671,700 |
a2faaeab4da2963e79900bee0c168a0d0d5845f2 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0xebdfcd8358192a710681f64817eaab1d50a4c5b24ee4fe0bca2cfdcb192b3b68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | bra-pal-san-2025-11-06 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,703,404 | 78,703,404 |
a8cf4555a9b1c179046c5dafb5fabfd73f7e6135 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x0cf0abe29da8b355f0ed50399803b0b8a83a62c7978d81abbdb2812278c918df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | epl-che-wol-2025-11-08 | Will Wolves win on 2025-11-08? | 78,796,116 | 78,796,116 |
b28e7fff88c50aca18a35a6d0b83578e1b4ce602 | 0x10ec556b83a1008de3afb76773fc52737e0168a8 | 0x3c2d3e1c6f8c686c721a885f355c17ae92b47791ac66984b7ab8c7470055d06c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-15? | Event: bra-pal-bra-2025-10-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba win on 2025-10-17? | Event: arg-lan-god-2025-10-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? | E... | no | 1 | sea-juv-tor-2025-11-08 | Will Torino win on 2025-11-08? | 78,796,116 | 78,796,116 |
9a50bf05ecfe411cec507ec2c9800453643fbb77 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xf956e916e9e29e8140b7bb5dc9c0a0eba6f85ac8da1e46ab7370772f62a0332c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Usyk beat Fury?
Event: usyk-vs-fury-2
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | usyk-vs-fury-2 | Will Usyk beat Fury? | 65,778,751 | 65,778,751 |
55ea0f6a6c21478fdb9f643547a05450997d9043 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xf5810fd33d08222bf26ce832566d84d16ce392e13fd827c067b6161999fcc0cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?
Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | yes | 1 | billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | 65,852,962 | 65,852,962 |
d010e7b6cc871ba90a3f5009b171241e308c54d7 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x504e795d361636416cbb9f47f16b8b9b8d2ad5198ccd8d7dff14bb9482eb5563 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden ... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,366,352 | 66,366,352 |
6925afaa548f117888bbaa429c82471f88d3fc1c | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xa8d94009b680a8d28f20a3abf192865e19433f8307a7996323d3d74c2b25df4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Will 'The Substance' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | 66,366,352 | 66,366,352 |
78f6de9a57c503eb81019ee97e16da28189fd237 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x489d43d12cc43e2b840c6e2a6952954787bc779de11be17729dcaae5f2947370 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | adrian-dittmann-of-tweets-january-3-10 | Will Dittman tweet 140 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,544,342 | 66,544,342 |
91941dd2fbeda5730e2cb760603c3aa90f4fa701 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xb5d749343ea29ccb569b693b1f481d1bf1cb0259343ff6bab1c92aebe4e24288 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | grammys-best-country-song | Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song? | 67,483,943 | 67,483,943 |
44b741a9e25887dd1d958037503a2c6d46ec5602 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x02285d419f287801fb1662be1405e5dcb594dab307198804d37d3dab36bd7ffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,618,802 | 67,618,802 |
bce9fd7d4a6fa85763297bcfc81499c52f0e979a | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x1329a399b6534cb77323e496fd2dc9e247f2a8946df86a03284581d87869018f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | 67,638,874 | 67,638,874 |
34184046c20d505c12e30df4cb30cbd407677de5 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x74b835cd8ec86eb9c44c6f1dc4185e5788c235868f2cb3f17b69ba67fe883d0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | nfl-mvp-1 | Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | 67,638,874 | 67,638,874 |
b52c99fbd1342b9dd9bfba5eb17f9962a5767b70 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x4215e62941d3d298839f3ddd5b14bee839ea7df38b406eda30d7e6241c8d09ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14? | 67,750,160 | 67,750,160 |
57444ed44ad9ade2bb1b9f80b1814ad8efafec43 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x399b3e538eae06db62ba0e166cf3772276dabf75862c938119d17d59684c7e40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | superbowl-champion-2025 | Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | 67,800,968 | 67,800,968 |
d792b7212c6c1fef3c32989f347542cfa1506e8b | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xae350d4ababffcb1f2f53dab656b95cd8e7154bd79b78e0bcedc85b499ce6efe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | january-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025? | 67,830,787 | 67,830,787 |
2270413afdf1d59190fde5cbde787f88b59facbe | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xf4fb8ad3cbe298529bd9220f803521633ccf060d243907d3cd56510c51b200a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | january-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025? | 67,830,787 | 67,830,787 |
00fc030dea19e38aab057996b6e9970c6416336d | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x231e2a6bf0faf0dd49767271c58091559a3a105fe65dd822c1d4c51dbed7bc85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Jeffrey Randall Allen (Player 831) win the Beast Games? | 67,882,194 | 67,882,194 |
e35da85b883b7138ce17b4193fd6286dad39078e | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x2a0bc33eeb2df1528256cd9d7f3a1aae9b3ea3bc43f3b74c5347b5d455453d78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | 67,882,194 | 67,882,194 |
ddc57f904c20852193c9a5c468acc6a84933146f | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x42bd47d1d2c41792d9e0e0493b23b712bc00fbd3afb0a437c3e739e4f56077f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Courtney Ferris (Player 424) win the Beast Games? | 67,882,194 | 67,882,194 |
527c5b4db6850f73c6186373f5f2ae07248c92df | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x479aa2c73a0d1baf11ec74cdedc908418421da2dcb8321fc3562074bec0d321c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | 67,882,194 | 67,882,194 |
9527ba06a04ce7c331c2747ed8f177ab78ab97e6 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x4a1c5b4017836a745f7645bc5f9a9f8f88c35a3077b089f7632969ccb6c17904 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will T'wana Barnett (Player 830) win the Beast Games? | 67,882,194 | 67,882,194 |
104710ee949d0078a3609a9831f477e8dfd38e60 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x54131b5b5f49dcb36e2d1619f16b294422bdb1a9a2943bb279e32db51b419f12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-the-beast-games | Will Yesenia Hernandez Jaime (Player 947) win the Beast Games? | 67,882,194 | 67,882,194 |
02fc31a28c7b9e8a2e5071d980f47d417a7b481f | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x01081df0cc99aef286312d8e520fa35d881918f3d0229556bc0a87be0dd9fd37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | 68,122,405 | 68,122,405 |
8a969dff905dc0d5f70712a91d00b36e17642c4c | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x15e61785bf423d21cad2f38dcef2ae63e94e383e2408e49500be20fe6b32b7fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m? | 68,122,405 | 68,122,405 |
85c1cd45f0d3e53768ccd211524f75d67395b8d8 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x3aeb33faeafab42903b3d72431a20a2076d1bed82096988a9819034c61a6366c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day? | 68,516,016 | 68,516,016 |
aaf222b99d85eaa78155010d7bbdfe2e80ec28eb | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x445d1599c6a870b958b0fbe58a545ef67042293020d00bf734444f6026a8dfaf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-feb-28 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? | 68,550,600 | 68,550,600 |
e86a72a5d6f8545eb1f4b4faf81b938cd09bc0d2 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xfded8af2c2dde99ddd79ddad9a6225e065fb8f684a18bb4072ff32edd4f1703b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | australia-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? | 69,124,402 | 69,124,402 |
9ee817a4daac807a9f67de0401746a00896a8b81 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x40d7f992374755e3fbc80db6ba154b52be421d39bb9097ebbcb7e644e35af0c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | 70,017,328 | 70,017,328 |
2adc78b2e0d95631fa7fdb45fc4249087cd0499b | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xae8b0fddb77f2d553534f447246206f5fbc0367a97f9936e0cb7826257bbedff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40 and 50? | 70,017,328 | 70,017,328 |
3d3f3f5caad7e20d84dc9d2c31d2fdc41d568ce4 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xf4e34075d8e82d89213a1224ee9256a24a0930a7ff265524e142707d6a7468b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | 70,017,328 | 70,017,328 |
2460822fcdb9a6f356f0ae4f33b686ee7f5b3ad1 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x215afec444de7a4d85c17e8912c6bdc74e0fdb7138b51b39914bf3e87a77aaf6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend? | 70,040,277 | 70,040,277 |
424f8f4a497c1d2c7f7333ce03e3e99442473279 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x95aebeeaa27416d732a3b3884299a0f49e0ea5e303aea494b031ab8b5ffc5650 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025? | 70,143,779 | 70,143,779 |
6f98cdfe1b7c96b16c88caf75c33fed482f417db | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x5cbed2da6aafc562a3eac928fd621978713634ec1cc167cd74fd39499581181b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | yes | 1 | 2025-masters-winner | Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? | 70,285,519 | 70,285,519 |
119c379ce3e252bee4e650a5ad42ba4bd12381c5 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x6dcc818120faf4295730912ad0dc291a1e1c73c2b44738cfc7a19f14387bead4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Bes... | no | 1 | who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next? | 70,467,159 | 70,467,159 |
2e83fa6f2ae76fc10808d9399a8814582b39ccb9 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xa2f612fd9c74cb347dceeb5e094fc0511590c789a46fe405b168e47dfcdadec8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sabrina Carpenter be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024? | Event: billboard-greatest-pop-star-of-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confide... | yes | 1 | who-will-the-giants-draft | Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? | 70,811,026 | 70,811,026 |
0b75a31c39720d4abf82c92f02f061b12c9893f5 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x42b003416bca340cd900f7178cfb2df9bfc8608de0f95ee0effe505dbf68c598 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'The Substance' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 0.111111 | the-accountant-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 69? | 70,867,602 | 70,867,602 |
c35212172bfdc087ec6b876352b60e876625bbfd | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xafcb4c6d93076646f87f91388a9d2c6a01af35cf67ff9441150edd572b346a10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'The Substance' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? | Event: golden-globes-best-musical-or-comedy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dittman tweet 140 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: adrian-dittmann-of-tweets-january-3-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | the-accountant-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | 70,867,602 | 70,867,602 |
6f69f744b5bc75a0ed0dab24be4b9ccd6d2623ac | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dittman tweet 140 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: adrian-dittmann-of-tweets-january-3-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song? | Event: grammys-best-country-song | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PO... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 70,951,618 | 70,951,618 |
09e645e180e6e4c0ef8ef3d9c55afad29bf830f0 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xa2657f5387abacbd8b30ee450639dfb26fe8eff6e32ddc9ff542899ffe03a2cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song? | Event: grammys-best-country-song | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jos... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-tot-2025-05-04 | Will West Ham vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 71,113,263 | 71,113,263 |
1321abcc1d3e756b16810cee939cc2f399c40ac0 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x307a0863bc17c4001910f05123aa32441371a10abca99497f0af5f2f33b49bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | Event: trump-potus-of-tweets-january-31-feb-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for ... | yes | 1 | nba-playoffs-warriors-vs-rockets-series-outcome-556 | Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-3? | 71,133,963 | 71,133,963 |
37dfba993822034c5dd2c2d2e9bb36f61824af8d | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x2fa20af5e3a675dd87bddf40cb3b1a69b83298278f5a36f29f839e7f861c0b91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? | 71,154,052 | 71,154,052 |
77d88edc9c819e9f2bd75c03809afcc5537406f0 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xf663f16694622cad86b7f02ee52fda52595e2989383081e2d97b32a6cbab455c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Event: nfl-mvp-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14? | Event: kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | Event... | yes | 1 | thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | 71,154,052 | 71,154,052 |
5b059fe57a4f2a2bb3eeff999d17da11a2f7dd91 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kanye tweet less than 200 times February 8-14? | Event: kanye-of-tweets-feb-8-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-... | no | 1 | who-will-be-the-next-pope | Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | 71,280,395 | 71,280,395 |
1f960e93f9e6f65a64adc82a890e3ed29d10c3d1 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x1fa72926309670e8ef8d8b7ebe8fe06bf50ba4bc9b43187218ce3ec3ca89f200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | Event: superbowl-champion-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025? | Event: january-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will global temp... | no | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from North America? | 71,282,366 | 71,282,366 |
826c007f73c522bdf90102dac641b56dc0b5005f | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xb906c3feb63c4de0e6c3d160bf7427b7877c0ef37ca2c1632f0a1a636c9db85e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025? | Event: january-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025? | Event: january-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Africa? | 71,282,366 | 71,282,366 |
926770f509d1dabf1261608be751bd638ebe6105 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xc9419f62294dc0af13db4530a49c3608ee2e4d603e753de30aa5f192b81fb747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025? | Event: january-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jeffrey Randall Allen (Player 831) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Will the next Pope be from Europe? | 71,282,366 | 71,282,366 |
bf0cdaef8846cfc983cad3cf87145e0d52c1374a | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x5dd57686d09a3564c1b5d742e5c9d46f603ef627202136f03eb36b1119084623 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jeffrey Randall Allen (Player 831) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Courtney Ferris (Pl... | yes | 1 | fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? | 71,437,304 | 71,437,304 |
e1fa4f7aa0e4ff691ae305af1b1cde3a52f46f35 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x9ce55a900eef49fd0c2cc3052dd1dd859e443d49fe297aeb7976bbe0dfadda8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gage (Player 974) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Courtney Ferris (Player 424) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937)... | yes | 1 | fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | 71,437,304 | 71,437,304 |
9a4950ea13e211b7e9ab74662e723bd1de3c15af | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xc6400e2ff96064153cd9c70ef8217f5bb1829fec059ec3b7653171f1256951f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Courtney Ferris (Player 424) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T'wana Barnett (... | yes | 1 | fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | 71,437,304 | 71,437,304 |
a37ab23a24bc0a03228ffe23ec38efacff534d7d | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xde7113c7fa59ca0c93288ab750a1459cb4893fce5861dff3069da4c8ec0c3b92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Emma Nelson (Player 937) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will T'wana Barnett (Player 830) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Yesenia Hernandez... | no | 1 | fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | 71,437,304 | 71,437,304 |
7625c47ae8aaf564f1361e91b1018241d40c2cab | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xbb49aeb60fc5454f81c518b8578c0f4e92715193359c6d056b4fee6b1c7e5358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T'wana Barnett (Player 830) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Yesenia Hernandez Jaime (Player 947) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Capt... | yes | 1 | nba-eastern-conference-champion | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | 71,500,325 | 71,500,325 |
22be3970544a5d65c8271ba1562b8194e98383c7 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x6452c3d3e25f381ce39e9b7ffb06cf9d7a7cf1cc6c13044c2403c4606b77e5f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Yesenia Hernandez Jaime (Player 947) win the Beast Games? | Event: who-will-win-the-beast-games | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Cho... | yes | 1 | la-liga-winner | Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | 71,573,730 | 71,573,730 |
e8526d07e1a71bdcb141dea3b5b18ac8244ea695 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x99a76eb4959604e2a1b7c6dedf1f75fb19491df21deb746388a2b65c0c1713c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | Event: captain-america-brave-new-world-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m? | Event: paddington-in-peru-openin... | no | 1 | la-liga-winner | Will Barcelona win La Liga? | 71,573,730 | 71,573,730 |
87bce7e4a1f92c707441daec53b87cab9364d8b0 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xd1cfd61da9ac8931fc3aa48ad05eb9687e6f925a15502eb23a04e0174d2c9f30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m? | Event: paddington-in-peru-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day? | Event: how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day |... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 71,625,421 | 71,625,421 |
5463b8e9da6635d64c0c9eb1b3ac171a8a78ba1b | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x0e987e9475018409854fe479e7afa3c86ef9eb6745e58a056c5c4548ea77c97f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day? | Event: how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-feb-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? | 71,658,663 | 71,658,663 |
1897425f4b7b8d4322b52a085ade356b8f4709be | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xaf51603d78545c838490bafe178ee9ff4c23d0c2161f15e0e530d3735229ad3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $420b on February 28? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-feb-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? | Event: australia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "A Min... | yes | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,696,674 | 71,696,674 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.