sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
aeb42cea6d823dd8d1533dd1e0cfa807c55ee0c9 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xb1403171fb89579ffa973697f56906a23dcbb4709e29f68428be383af4d173bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mariners vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sea-ari-2025-06-11 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will New York City FC beat Atlanta United FC? | Event: mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Angels vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-laa-bal-... | cavaliers | 0 | nba-cle-ind-2025-07-10 | Cavaliers vs. Pacers | 73,815,634 | 73,833,687 |
e12de6f6957ef31575fe27e2aa432e1af52246af | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5ac94b14dd6c7c344d3b45c329d7748698c262e5341b89d3dfa81bb480e422e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will New York City FC beat Atlanta United FC? | Event: mls-new-york-city-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Angels vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-laa-bal-2025-06-13 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Portland Timbers beat San Jose Earthquakes? | Ev... | mets | 0 | mlb-nym-bal-2025-07-10 | Mets vs. Orioles | 73,815,634 | 73,857,762 |
00948830c53a1bb5b7bae3a298ae9ce77a419024 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x815a39d0fc165336fda1855a54fb3f41885b6e85ce24d8e696425e31f578013d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Angels vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-laa-bal-2025-06-13 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Portland Timbers beat San Jose Earthquakes? | Event: mls-portland-timbers-vs-san-jose-earthquakes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-... | lakers | 0.460844 | nba-lal-dal-2025-07-10 | Lakers vs. Mavericks | 73,823,727 | 73,833,687 |
896a68f716b49ed32871f14ec77af326d4c3e1ce | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xa5e861098b6cd1d6e5b1110667033d0fa384b0f51bd444f17f7a3c69dbe03af3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portland Timbers beat San Jose Earthquakes? | Event: mls-portland-timbers-vs-san-jose-earthquakes | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will LA Galaxy beat St. L... | bucks | 0.001903 | nba-den-mil-2025-07-10 | Nuggets vs. Bucks | 73,823,727 | 73,833,687 |
b76c69393740aae10cc5b87fbc5a8c67b75d6823 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x9dce361a4af044721cdbfde2a84c5a2ce35756fb42670acca059933cd5f17b1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain U21 beat Romania U21? | Event: uefa-european-u21-spain-vs-romania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will LA Galaxy beat St. Louis SC? | Event: mls-st-louis-city-sc-vs-la-galaxy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will St. Louis City SC beat LA Galaxy? | Event: mls... | yankees | 1 | mlb-sea-nyy-2025-07-10 | Mariners vs. Yankees | 73,833,687 | 73,833,687 |
dfdf4a5f2a03eb5b0fd0b9b29488c7b8e82bc6a3 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x15e334a04d6ab5ef581c193377b1881b19958bf1d7ea8977fd805acd751181f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will LA Galaxy beat St. Louis SC? | Event: mls-st-louis-city-sc-vs-la-galaxy | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will St. Louis City SC beat LA Galaxy? | Event: mls-st-louis-city-sc-vs-la-galaxy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Eve... | guardians | 0 | mlb-cle-cws-2025-07-11 | Guardians vs. White Sox | 73,841,562 | 73,874,962 |
810aa1bdf8a9890fbd99f546ec40c85d115e41eb | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x4737ebf0f5ea0e824df22c5c0d518755d7b29f55c62d25929342822f406c43b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will St. Louis City SC beat LA Galaxy? | Event: mls-st-louis-city-sc-vs-la-galaxy | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Mamelodi Sundown... | mets | 0 | mlb-nym-kc-2025-07-12 | Mets vs. Royals | 73,878,022 | 73,882,985 |
bef1fb50a41e4d61684403b1190fcc3a23cb4c20 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x81e063b2b24771ffc8188310a587d47a90b8287a976fb873be2a3932c1a423d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-fluminense-vs-borussia-dortmund | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mamelodi Sundowns beat Ulsan Hyundai? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-ulsan-hyundai-vs-mamelodi-sundowns | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | brewers | 0 | mlb-wsh-mil-2025-07-12 | Nationals vs. Brewers | 73,887,679 | 73,887,679 |
b170762e3cd36b269a6983d87866082ac5466341 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x3a82fa2c15ed428e8b0fc241cb2ec583bbe7ef431ce10a7f0c4a81d3cfb7dc47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mamelodi Sundowns beat Ulsan Hyundai? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-ulsan-hyundai-vs-mamelodi-sundowns | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-18 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | Event:... | padres | 0 | mlb-phi-sd-2025-07-12 | Phillies vs. Padres | 73,892,342 | 73,892,342 |
3844ed36295b9922d0b37ae2aec663b60651a955 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xd5421cb245a631fe4460d9f85f18373e206bd13db6d5dea1a0414f741432d427 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Phillies vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-phi-mia-2025-06-18 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ | Event: blasttv-... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-sporting-kansas-city-vs-seattle-sounders | Will Seattle Sounders beat Sporting Kansas City? | 73,902,329 | 73,902,329 |
729153083ed41400eb842a112d145c1a0a5d7ab1 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x4a3ee46123da682b0e525193fd582ea383d11b730ec4c6236599c648b516052d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-fc-porto | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ | Event: blasttv-austin-major-faze-vs-the-mongolz | Choice: the mongolz | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC Fight Night:... | mystics | 0 | wnba-wsh-sea-2025-07-13 | Mystics vs Storm | 73,926,635 | 73,926,635 |
e0f83993391d37b63b60cc089c4d51d0a4028bef | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x0cfd0e280d309b901fe092e73dc978b3f20184c0e455354cb12ebaf9d506f9ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ | Event: blasttv-austin-major-faze-vs-the-mongolz | Choice: the mongolz | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. | Event: ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | Choice: rountree jr. | Confidence: 4.3707547189919035e-06
3.... | mercury | 0 | wnba-phx-gsv-2025-07-14 | Mercury vs Valkyries | 73,966,707 | 73,966,707 |
7d4bc28a1d540f2dae87769273e55fa362334096 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x59146193092e473f3d883f85202bd193a19f498b1a33588d55dfc17518230db9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. | Event: ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | Choice: rountree jr. | Confidence: 4.3707547189919035e-06
2. Question: UFC Fight Night: Ko vs. Elliott | Event: ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | Choice: elliott | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs.... | celtics | 0 | nba-bos-mia-2025-07-14 | Celtics vs. Heat | 73,969,627 | 73,974,425 |
56950145eef0f19326d65903ac79901f691c9759 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x380e12f8b7022fc952e1cd2050a0a1728166897a2bf1efd5185ed392fb5636c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC Fight Night: Ko vs. Elliott | Event: ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr | Choice: elliott | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Tigers vs. Rays | Event: mlb-det-tb-2025-06-22 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Hilal beat Pachuca? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-hilal-vs-pac... | 76ers | 0 | nba-phi-was-2025-07-15 | 76ers vs. Wizards | 74,003,988 | 74,003,988 |
5b1cf8893bab45938cba2786638bf02196d3b7a6 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x671675301367019853ee970e009809609d4e06cd3f5e2b0fa768d432db52dd83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tigers vs. Rays | Event: mlb-det-tb-2025-06-22 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Hilal beat Pachuca? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-hilal-vs-pachuca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will PSG beat Bayern Munich in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-bayern-munich... | nationals | 0 | mlb-sd-wsh-2025-07-18 | Padres vs. Nationals | 74,123,732 | 74,123,732 |
f19a8384540cb637fcbd2cca984129b42846881f | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xa2a18ad275ea7542dcc64816636e529b74ca4c19bbf4d9278f01affe371dba03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Hilal beat Pachuca? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-al-hilal-vs-pachuca | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PSG beat Bayern Munich in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-bayern-munich-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Orioles vs. Braves | Event: mlb-ba... | rangers | 0 | mlb-det-tex-2025-07-18 | Tigers vs. Rangers | 74,123,732 | 74,123,732 |
5fe0293ad300297443d48439478c69ac17d6e329 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x6e5f7e6e55dac91b4100befd79e9a6053732f97e6d7ea4be0877e4ea1d843dd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will PSG beat Bayern Munich in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-bayern-munich-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Orioles vs. Braves | Event: mlb-bal-atl-2025-07-06 | Choice: orioles | Confidence: 4.65439666330747e-06
3. Question: Royals vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-k... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-sf-tor-2025-07-19 | Giants vs. Blue Jays | 74,160,636 | 74,160,636 |
30c842cba3de7bf9a6b149873c56902c073115ce | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x7a441a0c494e650ebeec2a267fcfe555f21d1080239f2050703360d3361e7cbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Orioles vs. Braves | Event: mlb-bal-atl-2025-07-06 | Choice: orioles | Confidence: 4.65439666330747e-06
2. Question: Royals vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-kc-ari-2025-07-06 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Reds vs. Phillies | Event: mlb-cin-phi-2025-07-06 | Choice: phillie... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,203,122 | 74,203,122 |
acc6428485b2617e7252d45f9a5e1d7a78da5b5e | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xd488ca41f869029f9d554c5b0fafdc7df2d67b29c136c91bbc3d51fc6d1cc398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Royals vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-kc-ari-2025-07-06 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Reds vs. Phillies | Event: mlb-cin-phi-2025-07-06 | Choice: phillies | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Guardians vs. Astros | Event: mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-07 | Choice: guardians | Confidenc... | no | 1 | 2025-open-championship-winner | Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? | 74,207,585 | 74,207,585 |
7fff55074321f273d3dbf8218902c15d236bf5db | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xeb11edd2a7715869f822d40ac36d6e89c36671ac3b3194da14160022311f0967 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reds vs. Phillies | Event: mlb-cin-phi-2025-07-06 | Choice: phillies | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Guardians vs. Astros | Event: mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-07 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.00977071341361012
3. Question: Rangers vs. Angels | Event: mlb-tex-laa-2025-07-07 | Choice: angels | Con... | angels | 0 | mlb-laa-nym-2025-07-21 | Angels vs. Mets | 74,244,089 | 74,248,983 |
a546da7e9fdeb6b738f9c8e814cbe623bf2b02fb | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x8fcb0ea92bdff5807ff2c1f3a79eb74974f2d32ae74029357ea72b74235aae66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Guardians vs. Astros | Event: mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-07 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.00977071341361012
2. Question: Rangers vs. Angels | Event: mlb-tex-laa-2025-07-07 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.04753820033955857
3. Question: Thunder vs. 76ers | Event: nba-okc-phi-2025-07-07 | Choice... | nationals | 0 | mlb-cin-wsh-2025-07-21 | Reds vs. Nationals | 74,244,089 | 74,256,161 |
0f01d1d37077bd6b8b59fa6c4d1f6187480ac872 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x52b66b819ca35cbbe975a675f2b30cbecca2ebf4b7141e620a0ddd42ccbb6b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Angels | Event: mlb-tex-laa-2025-07-07 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.04753820033955857
2. Question: Thunder vs. 76ers | Event: nba-okc-phi-2025-07-07 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Dodgers vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-07 | Choice: brewers | Confide... | liberty | 0.000055 | wnba-ind-nyl-2025-07-22 | Fever vs Liberty | 74,245,745 | 74,245,745 |
564b10dab27e0db5a081f3d86bf65908e553713b | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xa5eebf885fc2f0de5f1ef755d32512a48eac80cf778f0161dd68d352b10fe45f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Thunder vs. 76ers | Event: nba-okc-phi-2025-07-07 | Choice: thunder | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Dodgers vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-07 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Guardians vs. Astros | Event: mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-08 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0422... | athletics | 0.277309 | mlb-oak-tex-2025-07-21 | Athletics vs. Rangers | 74,248,983 | 74,249,562 |
de289b69e46d3382d7cddb626f37f57df8e32851 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x8cbda44bcf8386cf7f462efdab541dc33849238945c1cfcdddd905e5948ae782 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-07 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Guardians vs. Astros | Event: mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-08 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.04228321134235567
3. Question: Rays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tb-det-2025-07-08 | Choice: rays | Confiden... | dodgers | 0 | mlb-min-lad-2025-07-21 | Twins vs. Dodgers | 74,248,983 | 74,252,401 |
c074976318552b3e7b0e2ba8efb047b59f693581 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x0d5f20e14ab0dab56113322db8535a57c25d3b227ffa6e8b6ed1309c5d3df97b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Guardians vs. Astros | Event: mlb-cle-hou-2025-07-08 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.04228321134235567
2. Question: Rays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tb-det-2025-07-08 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 0.03234005202379509
3. Question: Dodgers vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-08 | Choice: br... | marlins | 0 | mlb-sd-mia-2025-07-22 | Padres vs. Marlins | 74,287,954 | 74,287,954 |
28701ada67a76a03da5855e558b81214cfc1ec79 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x7f52e3b5cee619330fe89136ba18bb883c491ea9f412d33de621af7bf4a72bcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tb-det-2025-07-08 | Choice: rays | Confidence: 0.03234005202379509
2. Question: Dodgers vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-08 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulatio... | braves | 0 | mlb-sf-atl-2025-07-23 | Giants vs. Braves | 74,317,214 | 74,317,214 |
4a228873fba8a7fe6ae904bd8ae2ec10316f1b0b | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xef59e051b273dd220dbf62a8d949fe080678cb8405311edee5b0805410400854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-lad-mil-2025-07-08 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Miami beat New England Revolution? | Event: mls... | cubs | 0 | mlb-kc-chc-2025-07-23 | Royals vs. Cubs | 74,321,882 | 74,321,882 |
50a9e296b78ed88a4d274839b871bff4c6e5d439 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x3e2ea3df8bb89a8ffa6c85e4db01011cd761089bd97e1dab1cb8f591d09744d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat PSG in regulation time? | Event: psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami beat New England Revolution? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-inter-miami | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Braves vs. Athletics |... | angels | 0 | mlb-sea-laa-2025-07-24 | Mariners vs. Angels | 74,375,960 | 74,375,960 |
a6c10515e8933fd4b09260f7583b316147afbfcd | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x7177b8e27230e03cfad75f421ef82c0e1e3e90ee5fa0b340c1114a7990b3c01a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami beat New England Revolution? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-inter-miami | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Braves vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-atl-oak-2025-07-10 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-07-10... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-tor-det-2025-07-25 | Blue Jays vs. Tigers | 74,393,713 | 74,419,495 |
4cd3f6fbc7828c738cebbe2664fae012fb6c4ad1 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xbd2d26cd424bef96e1f83dd8ed8a5602a1a37f7e0c98a09298fb9871653f799a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Braves vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-atl-oak-2025-07-10 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-07-10 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Mets vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-nym-bal-2025-07-10 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
4. ... | diamondbacks | 0 | mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-25 | Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | 74,396,904 | 74,419,495 |
9dbe0ed1545e87a709fbae2965ef3388742d719a | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x18741655c3dcd13833e1c17c7e96933427f8f3a032e85247d959b07b12c92a9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Cavaliers vs. Pacers | Event: nba-cle-ind-2025-07-10 | Choice: cavaliers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mets vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-nym-bal-2025-07-10 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Lakers vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-lal-dal-2025-07-10 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.46084375... | diamondbacks | 0 | mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-26 | Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | 74,449,727 | 74,449,727 |
5cff8479f414035bbed85babd0775be6e6ef405f | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x7d07fa5b17dc1822d6a1770be13612ce9f97b5bf9a662266f0a3c128609ba918 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mets vs. Orioles | Event: mlb-nym-bal-2025-07-10 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Lakers vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-lal-dal-2025-07-10 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.4608437570301729
3. Question: Nuggets vs. Bucks | Event: nba-den-mil-2025-07-10 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.... | blue jays | 0 | mlb-tor-det-2025-07-27 | Blue Jays vs. Tigers | 74,474,277 | 74,474,277 |
3807683b1688e15c4af1c604248f701e4ee8e546 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x7299e34bc98139ca7472ba4d9981ec0a3178aa6d25c8c146813a07cee1004e9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lakers vs. Mavericks | Event: nba-lal-dal-2025-07-10 | Choice: lakers | Confidence: 0.4608437570301729
2. Question: Nuggets vs. Bucks | Event: nba-den-mil-2025-07-10 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0019027403782019858
3. Question: Mariners vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-sea-nyy-2025-07-10 | Choice:... | dodgers | 0 | mlb-lad-bos-2025-07-27 | Dodgers vs. Red Sox | 74,479,299 | 74,479,299 |
0e234beb5deea4dd994912761070c1645e343cbd | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xa0396f2c1f946bc800adcfaf165adf5a645c414cb8f1a5bcca81e24292315fb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nuggets vs. Bucks | Event: nba-den-mil-2025-07-10 | Choice: bucks | Confidence: 0.0019027403782019858
2. Question: Mariners vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-sea-nyy-2025-07-10 | Choice: yankees | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Guardians vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-cle-cws-2025-07-11 | Choice: guardians ... | twins | 0.047619 | mlb-bos-min-2025-07-30 | Red Sox vs. Twins | 74,600,103 | 74,600,103 |
0bf238b2f2b5c1c7f082142b888af945f11a9f5f | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x556e385775d38d6f42f9ef979389c2d0c2611cb2513cbc474f75501a9cb505cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mariners vs. Yankees | Event: mlb-sea-nyy-2025-07-10 | Choice: yankees | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Guardians vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-cle-cws-2025-07-11 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Mets vs. Royals | Event: mlb-nym-kc-2025-07-12 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
4. Q... | guardians | 0 | mlb-col-cle-2025-07-30 | Rockies vs. Guardians | 74,602,801 | 74,614,741 |
fb0c6d707c8ba39163decd149d9c01f2c15d1b44 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xef58a5902c458d305db919eb83c798ae759d8beee3767b675ac04f60543725e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Guardians vs. White Sox | Event: mlb-cle-cws-2025-07-11 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mets vs. Royals | Event: mlb-nym-kc-2025-07-12 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Nationals vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-wsh-mil-2025-07-12 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
4. ... | rangers | 0.18004 | mlb-tex-sea-2025-08-01 | Rangers vs. Mariners | 74,685,304 | 74,685,304 |
b51366cc562987910a4357f92e3b6ece876f20a5 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x01b16d4f1fcd74b57a3c38b76e791a5f26654c1004bd128674912fe9c5725a03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mets vs. Royals | Event: mlb-nym-kc-2025-07-12 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Nationals vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-wsh-mil-2025-07-12 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Phillies vs. Padres | Event: mlb-phi-sd-2025-07-12 | Choice: padres | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question... | guardians | 0.602596 | mlb-min-cle-2025-08-01 | Twins vs. Guardians | 74,685,304 | 74,689,041 |
5ba3ec9ca5c5cb292b7e951f9770bd01f876773c | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x13b36beb1f647348117da5b280c204766f7f50896cee3aa0be42ac7bfc3209f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nationals vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-wsh-mil-2025-07-12 | Choice: brewers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Phillies vs. Padres | Event: mlb-phi-sd-2025-07-12 | Choice: padres | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Seattle Sounders beat Sporting Kansas City? | Event: mls-soccer-sporting-kansas-city-v... | cubs | 0 | mlb-bal-chc-2025-08-02 | Orioles vs. Cubs | 74,717,519 | 74,717,777 |
b71a597cb44beb6ddc8e31f2b8023ae2ff8b1e0e | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xb89dbbcf1c8bc5317ee4433cff4cf6f4cf0567b3aa3f9928e8f44c57d75fe091 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Phillies vs. Padres | Event: mlb-phi-sd-2025-07-12 | Choice: padres | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Seattle Sounders beat Sporting Kansas City? | Event: mls-soccer-sporting-kansas-city-vs-seattle-sounders | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Mystics vs Storm | Event: wnba-wsh-sea-... | marlins | 0 | mlb-nyy-mia-2025-08-02 | Yankees vs. Marlins | 74,720,125 | 74,728,513 |
7b5fdd76c963e295cef9c871a459b39ac453ca44 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xb19cdb5569c04b69585b26cd3de9e812d527ba811f0ceec260a0cbe4e2f37c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Seattle Sounders beat Sporting Kansas City? | Event: mls-soccer-sporting-kansas-city-vs-seattle-sounders | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Mystics vs Storm | Event: wnba-wsh-sea-2025-07-13 | Choice: mystics | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Mercury vs Valkyries | Event: wnba-phx-... | athletics | 0 | mlb-ari-oak-2025-08-02 | Diamondbacks vs. Athletics | 74,727,391 | 74,727,391 |
4f176579f3d823832242a3b6b2210c8ffb249b0e | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x132dfe79628d95e3c553de93a907b78e755118d916dba6f45ca457f4fb695aa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mystics vs Storm | Event: wnba-wsh-sea-2025-07-13 | Choice: mystics | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mercury vs Valkyries | Event: wnba-phx-gsv-2025-07-14 | Choice: mercury | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Celtics vs. Heat | Event: nba-bos-mia-2025-07-14 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | yankees | 0.555604 | mlb-nyy-tex-2025-08-04 | Yankees vs. Rangers | 74,793,281 | 74,795,489 |
18a0fc0bf9325c453ab0cb81f9bf1289a3961c04 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xe97391710c2a5a47577514d36e1692a89a04b75c0ddc70234715a8d272a45848 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mercury vs Valkyries | Event: wnba-phx-gsv-2025-07-14 | Choice: mercury | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Celtics vs. Heat | Event: nba-bos-mia-2025-07-14 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-07-15 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Quest... | astros | 0.005786 | mlb-hou-mia-2025-08-04 | Astros vs. Marlins | 74,793,281 | 74,800,792 |
3074df637552517f0b38de817032d74e76b8e427 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x9a778215415b24ffddd87ed0781ef46622970a4833475e8b4327793c175b357a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Celtics vs. Heat | Event: nba-bos-mia-2025-07-14 | Choice: celtics | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-07-15 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Padres vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-sd-wsh-2025-07-18 | Choice: nationals | Confidence: 0.0
4. Quest... | tigers | 0 | mlb-min-det-2025-08-04 | Twins vs. Tigers | 74,806,027 | 74,827,308 |
bf0d450a4e478f79ce4b7b9fb98007240dda2795 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xdb2c5a17f78a1ad48db9dc56973148a32eddd15df2ba84f386a4174cc0c0f6ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 76ers vs. Wizards | Event: nba-phi-was-2025-07-15 | Choice: 76ers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Padres vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-sd-wsh-2025-07-18 | Choice: nationals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tigers vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-det-tex-2025-07-18 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0
4. Que... | padres | 0.542353 | mlb-sd-ari-2025-08-06 | Padres vs. Diamondbacks | 74,889,563 | 74,889,563 |
2556d4549f3009a96aa51e6b435f288c95c5a5f6 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x96826d3e11ab6165785bdc067ecfcca29eec6904a856f1b95906464551b23a9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Padres vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-sd-wsh-2025-07-18 | Choice: nationals | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Tigers vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-det-tex-2025-07-18 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Giants vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-sf-tor-2025-07-19 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
... | mets | 0.000927 | mlb-nym-mil-2025-08-08 | Mets vs. Brewers | 74,963,059 | 74,965,607 |
2a80a86062fd375495b59dff7c87e7e7550df096 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x91050613fa3ae2635c2334e17ba78961eb94db47175c4d94d402f5bf0bc416ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tigers vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-det-tex-2025-07-18 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-sf-tor-2025-07-19 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winne... | royals | 0 | mlb-kc-min-2025-08-09 | Royals vs. Twins | 74,998,208 | 75,017,822 |
6450241f3740f2e41e57cac7577bbecfc380d235 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x4ccfb2eb2ff1d8b722b21fcecf5e94794410b839467a55d7c9a01579ba2f8498 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Giants vs. Blue Jays | Event: mlb-sf-tor-2025-07-19 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? | Ev... | mariners | 0 | mlb-tb-sea-2025-08-09 | Rays vs. Mariners | 75,002,208 | 75,008,219 |
a88231fe4c25d8823db911cddc0c13328f0f80db | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x2787a67be44258de2b7f6fa621f1f83630597d6abd246e38a48999b1bbcbbbcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Angels vs. Mets | Event:... | pirates | 0 | mlb-cin-pit-2025-08-09 | Reds vs. Pirates | 75,010,493 | 75,010,493 |
806535e1bc5e28dfa53e2d5c53074c22916714ee | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x481fadb538022d67334c33cad34c6646da1bcc8dd412b4a79ac74b5ce26840d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? | Event: 2025-open-championship-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Angels vs. Mets | Event: mlb-laa-nym-2025-07-21 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Reds vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-cin-wsh-2025-07-21 | Choice: nat... | guardians | 0 | mlb-cle-cws-2025-08-10 | Guardians vs. White Sox | 75,037,643 | 75,037,643 |
ee8b7942e5a37f6564b426991e1796e6004234da | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x64e5c4a981829672c89460959404e89a208aa2dcf04a86de075e69d80b383070 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Angels vs. Mets | Event: mlb-laa-nym-2025-07-21 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Reds vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-cin-wsh-2025-07-21 | Choice: nationals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Fever vs Liberty | Event: wnba-ind-nyl-2025-07-22 | Choice: liberty | Confidence: 5.54664537713... | phillies | 0 | mlb-phi-cin-2025-08-11 | Phillies vs. Reds | 75,087,864 | 75,097,569 |
3af26f7692dda16944e07a8d1700688a3de44304 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x70c327821a418f5893fd3e8e5e717849cb287738e4a78fb2bc380c0ea11f4724 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Reds vs. Nationals | Event: mlb-cin-wsh-2025-07-21 | Choice: nationals | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Fever vs Liberty | Event: wnba-ind-nyl-2025-07-22 | Choice: liberty | Confidence: 5.5466453771382964e-05
3. Question: Athletics vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-oak-tex-2025-07-21 | Choice: athletics... | phillies | 0 | mlb-phi-cin-2025-08-13 | Phillies vs. Reds | 75,155,258 | 75,155,258 |
06af00e2da47d779e478bce1ba65cb01f72da6dc | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xa5824a407441624b502c56202016428aa8c800aaabf3903f6d48805fbe39e66b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fever vs Liberty | Event: wnba-ind-nyl-2025-07-22 | Choice: liberty | Confidence: 5.5466453771382964e-05
2. Question: Athletics vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-oak-tex-2025-07-21 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.2773085560807975
3. Question: Twins vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-min-lad-2025-07-21 | Cho... | white sox | 1 | mlb-cws-kc-2025-08-16 | White Sox vs. Royals | 75,283,955 | 75,283,955 |
7ce8bdb99bd2b9081352735d958733a637e99f69 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x7d0135cdd291c7b3702f446ed1f2e5009e1f6ddb39eeaa73ab51b4a0171637c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Athletics vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-oak-tex-2025-07-21 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.2773085560807975
2. Question: Twins vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-min-lad-2025-07-21 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Padres vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-sd-mia-2025-07-22 | Choice: marlins | Conf... | jaguars | 0 | nfl-jax-no-2025-08-17 | Jaguars vs. Saints | 75,283,955 | 75,338,761 |
8291193a2120c2fa163e9e12c8e59bd90489a6cc | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xc7bf55d881d7541729085ea938be79d403946794689d3c8516ca1b1e742ab8b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Twins vs. Dodgers | Event: mlb-min-lad-2025-07-21 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Padres vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-sd-mia-2025-07-22 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Giants vs. Braves | Event: mlb-sf-atl-2025-07-23 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question... | pirates | 0.334767 | mlb-pit-chc-2025-08-16 | Pirates vs. Cubs | 75,285,575 | 75,285,755 |
c9b45dad14186d4597742c6c27b0c3e1fa3c6319 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x52da3702ba8a8c0718544d2d4d2d9dbb68d21af0614c0a748b9f1d45bd4d0c24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Padres vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-sd-mia-2025-07-22 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Giants vs. Braves | Event: mlb-sf-atl-2025-07-23 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Royals vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-kc-chc-2025-07-23 | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Mari... | guardians | 0 | mlb-tb-cle-2025-08-27 | Rays vs. Guardians | 75,724,101 | 75,724,101 |
1e94cb7521bd0a8e36bd623c0e8f33a67f8d89b2 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x63bc8aad008e69d12705c27dc8c2d3483db2f1dd1e201da7bbf4cc24318797d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Giants vs. Braves | Event: mlb-sf-atl-2025-07-23 | Choice: braves | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Royals vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-kc-chc-2025-07-23 | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Mariners vs. Angels | Event: mlb-sea-laa-2025-07-24 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
4. Question: Blu... | broncos | 0 | nfl-ten-den-2025-09-07 | Spread: Broncos (-7.5) | 76,170,518 | 76,189,760 |
853378ea7f9fcaf12d1fabd954a042a01cc9d210 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xe2f107836a6236398720178a48a51f0745260d5bf508d2422104c00eca2d6890 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Royals vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-kc-chc-2025-07-23 | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Mariners vs. Angels | Event: mlb-sea-laa-2025-07-24 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tor-det-2025-07-25 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
4. Questi... | falcons | 0.000013 | nfl-atl-min-2025-09-14 | Falcons vs. Vikings | 76,231,221 | 76,231,221 |
6d9845166bee442f931b1a8851976f047ae3fdf5 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xeb46b0156ecda9bb3121a74472f6675749f51569fb89930855e89d817c73cfe5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mariners vs. Angels | Event: mlb-sea-laa-2025-07-24 | Choice: angels | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tor-det-2025-07-25 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-25 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confide... | yes | 0.663969 | lal-mad-vil-2025-09-13 | Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-13? | 76,289,109 | 76,419,926 |
bbda04c1c7b1e89fa7f7d3d150887c28965d51ae | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x450bb0f66821e2cf6452a79d89db888839eed655dbb8256df3871d924efc4c96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tor-det-2025-07-25 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-25 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-26 | Choice: diamondback... | no | 1 | fl1-ogc-nan-2025-09-13 | Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-13? | 76,419,926 | 76,419,926 |
9758730b141455e93d7f539c164f380047e74677 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xdd3abb51e504426824b56c6a5e9b310b4b3e4113b01710b85c78729eece6b20b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-25 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-26 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tor-det-2025-07-27 | Choice: blue jay... | no | 1 | lib-vel-rac-2025-09-16 | Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-09-16? | 76,545,587 | 76,545,587 |
0f5ef2e8c463bd4c5abf66e2216c133666cd0da2 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5044799805e335c7353a583ff3b40af42b241eb3f813dd6fdcfa00d891db2d97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Event: mlb-ari-pit-2025-07-26 | Choice: diamondbacks | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tor-det-2025-07-27 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Dodgers vs. Red Sox | Event: mlb-lad-bos-2025-07-27 | Choice: dodgers | Confid... | no | 1 | epl-wol-lee-2025-09-20 | Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20? | 76,693,487 | 76,693,487 |
b2a9bb9d8b7634bd8b099c47a072287318fc3117 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x9511efb25c676cb82dd5b6427265729b721c8c33163288290c166e87f70e8b17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-tor-det-2025-07-27 | Choice: blue jays | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Dodgers vs. Red Sox | Event: mlb-lad-bos-2025-07-27 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Red Sox vs. Twins | Event: mlb-bos-min-2025-07-30 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.047619... | yes | 1 | ere-gro-tel-2025-09-20 | Will FC Groningen win on 2025-09-20? | 76,699,424 | 76,699,424 |
7fa9c317f8a3a4f75e5b9b35b886758e1f6f48cb | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x8039088b4c526bef04bb982b9ba68f124316b69062305599484d2411b52ff60e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dodgers vs. Red Sox | Event: mlb-lad-bos-2025-07-27 | Choice: dodgers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Red Sox vs. Twins | Event: mlb-bos-min-2025-07-30 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.047619047619047616
3. Question: Rockies vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-col-cle-2025-07-30 | Choice: guardians | Co... | yes | 1 | sea-udi-mil-2025-09-20 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-20? | 76,702,870 | 76,702,870 |
6f9f163966fdd208c468b331b764757bc6d46012 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xbfb6e7bc41af791f1fe34bbfe99304ba1585237825ac3d45552a79e6c19ae572 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Red Sox vs. Twins | Event: mlb-bos-min-2025-07-30 | Choice: twins | Confidence: 0.047619047619047616
2. Question: Rockies vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-col-cle-2025-07-30 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rangers vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-tex-sea-2025-08-01 | Choice: rangers | C... | no | 1 | lal-val-bil-2025-09-20 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-20? | 76,702,870 | 76,702,870 |
bc96383d35d38c6007219f2f5bfff6743dc408a5 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x1c0ef88e42db171c2eb2557768c486d371deb49ba712a125c12089f1061266ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rockies vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-col-cle-2025-07-30 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Rangers vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-tex-sea-2025-08-01 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.18004031667085785
3. Question: Twins vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-min-cle-2025-08-01 | Choice: guardian... | no | 1 | lal-esp-val-2025-09-23 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-23? | 76,868,127 | 76,868,127 |
2d837a807643d51794cf0f98bfd87e47df083bce | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xf1e58cb8a05b3f0948b3bbffde09fab1d31792033b37e1b43cc5b790730e6b2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rangers vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-tex-sea-2025-08-01 | Choice: rangers | Confidence: 0.18004031667085785
2. Question: Twins vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-min-cle-2025-08-01 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.6025957314112711
3. Question: Orioles vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-bal-chc-2025-08-02 | Choice... | yes | 1 | mex-gua-nec-2025-09-23 | Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-09-23? | 76,868,127 | 76,868,127 |
d49964d6e5b89803dc02e2d11e25104f1660a2b2 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xa7b5365bf0f763b3a9f5a4bfa2c6c1a1e3ca39721570fa249eb3bc40d74703eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Twins vs. Guardians | Event: mlb-min-cle-2025-08-01 | Choice: guardians | Confidence: 0.6025957314112711
2. Question: Orioles vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-bal-chc-2025-08-02 | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Yankees vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-nyy-mia-2025-08-02 | Choice: marlins | Confiden... | no | 1 | uel-ran-gkn-2025-09-25 | Will Rangers win on 2025-09-25? | 76,910,204 | 76,910,204 |
dd1fa3e49b81c0db81141fe45eb682e14ce5e9e9 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x120315f1b82180f2ed2cbc5593c7bc86889dd75400ead2983477a575fd753669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Orioles vs. Cubs | Event: mlb-bal-chc-2025-08-02 | Choice: cubs | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Yankees vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-nyy-mia-2025-08-02 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-ari-oak-2025-08-02 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0
... | royals | 1 | mlb-kc-laa-2025-09-25 | Royals vs. Angels | 76,923,870 | 76,923,870 |
2e207960d046471fdf2fa12e7cd11e0e4c6ca8b7 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x3770153576430dc3d9c8b33226d097b9e7920a9e86a10c8072b23eafb290dd14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Yankees vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-nyy-mia-2025-08-02 | Choice: marlins | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-ari-oak-2025-08-02 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Yankees vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-nyy-tex-2025-08-04 | Choice: yankees | Confidence... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26? | 76,945,776 | 76,945,776 |
e6fe12929bee2f571cfa93b6e2d8682301ce0274 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x9526ff83f39d91e6d8644895d0ad8727f500be4d86642465d2c168d39d6ba949 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Diamondbacks vs. Athletics | Event: mlb-ari-oak-2025-08-02 | Choice: athletics | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Yankees vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-nyy-tex-2025-08-04 | Choice: yankees | Confidence: 0.5556044967608179
3. Question: Astros vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-hou-mia-2025-08-04 | Choice: astros... | yes | 1 | fl1-str-olm-2025-09-26 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-26? | 76,945,776 | 76,945,776 |
2609e6cbc5843587e29cf9966020e754e269ec26 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xdb4c9be8df4f83ccfce2c59e6aa17357324a0bead6b4f154aa562c701f521192 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Yankees vs. Rangers | Event: mlb-nyy-tex-2025-08-04 | Choice: yankees | Confidence: 0.5556044967608179
2. Question: Astros vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-hou-mia-2025-08-04 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0057863464043749115
3. Question: Twins vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-min-det-2025-08-04 | Choice: t... | no | 1 | lal-gir-esp-2025-09-26 | Will Girona win on 2025-09-26? | 76,945,776 | 76,945,776 |
d7a813513d65bd495e65dbb3a5cc5131f72c4392 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x5ccdf2f2bf8f9d51d20c4933f8bdec15feea18384fe39cfc34fc3a7e8ab7eab0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Astros vs. Marlins | Event: mlb-hou-mia-2025-08-04 | Choice: astros | Confidence: 0.0057863464043749115
2. Question: Twins vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-min-det-2025-08-04 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Padres vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sd-ari-2025-08-06 | Choice: padres | Confi... | no | 0.230775 | epl-ast-ful-2025-09-28 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? | 77,006,403 | 77,006,403 |
996981408fae3a5f52e1f6c39d272230da8bbc30 | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0x79adec37b2f1ad53e17b80bb9c911c205300dbad84b55bb7ebaee8d8858d6ef2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Twins vs. Tigers | Event: mlb-min-det-2025-08-04 | Choice: tigers | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Padres vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sd-ari-2025-08-06 | Choice: padres | Confidence: 0.5423531795710835
3. Question: Mets vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-nym-mil-2025-08-08 | Choice: mets | Confidence: ... | giants | 1 | nfl-lac-nyg-2025-09-28 | Chargers vs. Giants | 77,022,461 | 77,022,461 |
58cf3088417acc22b92789ebf11cc6b6290e37ce | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xaff97d30e919b8e61568282eec525e6d914875850449f6fc1c85db63d613a1a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Padres vs. Diamondbacks | Event: mlb-sd-ari-2025-08-06 | Choice: padres | Confidence: 0.5423531795710835
2. Question: Mets vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-nym-mil-2025-08-08 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.000926771532654285
3. Question: Royals vs. Twins | Event: mlb-kc-min-2025-08-09 | Choice: royal... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-osa-2025-09-28 | Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-28? | 77,027,586 | 77,027,586 |
c636e9538a3fcdb623003e0c23e8de72bff7b84f | 0x10b055ced6691ea97529ce7595f01d3e7ff28525 | 0xb96ef554f7796156e0f9c5bf323a1a73dda3ebf06f06998dfd557eb6c57ca7e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Mets vs. Brewers | Event: mlb-nym-mil-2025-08-08 | Choice: mets | Confidence: 0.000926771532654285
2. Question: Royals vs. Twins | Event: mlb-kc-min-2025-08-09 | Choice: royals | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Rays vs. Mariners | Event: mlb-tb-sea-2025-08-09 | Choice: mariners | Confidence: 0.0... | no | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-09-30 | Will Atalanta vs. Club Brugge end in a draw? | 77,103,816 | 77,103,816 |
886a6fd4179beb37ec88d2cb1b8974593744f635 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x40d6037cab2b6ac1f3b58d09f427441f3f115fcebcdfb9c09ae7323a8ffda750 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0.000119 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | 77,877,718 | 77,877,718 |
e383b093107e2c883697ce6af14720acf3846d86 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x1006b5c4fd45c173e3e17107477e2cb903fe02b76937921fc42b676568b24299 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for... | down | 0.000019 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | 77,878,247 | 77,878,247 |
f5b347360531250c0f72445db647e654695bd834 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x83c0b471483a9e4260f4fd9ba72e65f93a5700c9df98ef8e7bceafe5caf70c08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
Tar... | down | 0.000122 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET | 77,882,857 | 77,882,857 |
3b25998bc8e179d6571dae83fdedd47b3522dff9 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x24c31b6879fcf60142f0354ff5c33ab0a48971878cc3b3bad0b1cc58685fa4fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9AM ET | 77,889,807 | 77,889,807 |
e76f14e39fe340c46c823769588a8cb4d42d8a85 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x62f84b540613282221ec0a10642ee37f9ecb6ee1fc0a6ee262effb53b3f2a755 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10AM ET | 77,891,948 | 77,891,948 |
1dcdd5f264ecb594ea8329ef21c2d3ef0c286ca1 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x3d48af86f1462ddac6526e5126f9bb82aaa8b80d5b51ba16fb510d075cb2180a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11PM ET | 77,915,961 | 77,915,961 |
f4e9026f8bff82aaa9eb80fc4d089a3ac9cdd911 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x0ce0361a798f31c0b647b8ac084d8d2dd710bdf3c9a04a6eceade8f7f18ae5f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12AM ET | 77,915,966 | 77,915,966 |
90cfd5e2d221bfeebb2b741dfeaf0ef4fb7ecd39 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xc2165cefa13ec9e7c90c910516f157f49038bfa15ecb19a169a58adf5b4dea21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0.000015 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET | 77,919,596 | 77,919,596 |
fc5d40250ea2d53f7e0018792fc60078b294837d | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xf589629611c0f79d0148553ae915faed2175269787da59f15300083fb27070c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3AM ET | 77,921,710 | 77,921,710 |
dcbf69ec244217ea8167fc9e48f484c1b10ee6a3 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xd6e4799660cb06ee928180abf6d38a6d22c054212c6fca3d2330fc0cc403afc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4AM ET | 77,924,397 | 77,924,397 |
06c283f36a5ac04bac6c8203fa5dd158b07d3a5f | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x8cc1303bf5236105c5aedb3c42ba4803057358a160be24bfa8b7031185f30e20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | up | 0.000007 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-20-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11PM ET | 77,957,415 | 77,957,415 |
494e345ef845a8e9a51f460c7ff4658ec1a9d4f5 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xcbf57f935c4a7eba0fad02585a354bd3f64342aeec04798dc53f38b5245388e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8AM ET | 77,973,853 | 77,973,853 |
80bca5e9d7272b1d5785a702ea271e16277c19f2 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x3fca81a77f67b3ce5afd604a368e9eac7936fd1d73c262505e374d22b31a7bfb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9AM ET | 77,976,256 | 77,976,256 |
d7c7ffc4eac7fa2adc324c1da577b05e99c1b0b9 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xf0873f35a1a63333c20a1e2354e4be9841d9df1d46cd3eb69e3a30d3bde4508e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11AM ET | 77,980,968 | 77,980,968 |
111152a4a7dcd65534c68fdb719dae0a3151efa0 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x98b9e5895e076695f4f577f2f9e453d77c717697ddc7e7ea397c2cbb303d8035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | up | 0.000049 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET | 77,980,973 | 77,980,973 |
e34ed75ef744451ba39e401d18450e254a3eb017 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xa60e4eb55408196e4cffedd0d22ccc35dca7dfd92949eeb985c31c403bea3214 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0.000568 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8PM ET | 77,995,640 | 77,995,640 |
e0770469974a3d0359233cd32df223e8c60d2e7b | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xf8ca7acbb7b6ab4cdf3b9e703ff4a65969ed6d0986dfe63c4488754d8a88fc29 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | up | 0.000185 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10PM ET | 77,998,990 | 77,998,990 |
6c81124181d05a5d641e8d7b963cfd09a930932d | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x466ab9fd123b5c94af2b516802d113497c468f8904d8075912dcde1854284523 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12AM ET | 78,004,716 | 78,004,716 |
ddf52a0cba24e149446e0f8ff66dcf44d9e08ccc | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x870719b53cbfced4ea0f9e77d5a71863c5d3cad836ca727989c2d894129fb383 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5AM ET | 78,011,326 | 78,011,326 |
a58cfc8755ceaddf424e375972286b95c5ad54fc | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x875100b74faec48fa52ca7ba36e49b01d61124198f433c7dfae7bd607cb20d45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7AM ET | 78,015,881 | 78,015,881 |
0fb759753d304ec32d6435eb579992172e72504f | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x37a2d991aa3d4a1690fc6640bbfe1941d8a0929b549b66c8ad7cc28f2167f63c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8AM ET | 78,017,031 | 78,017,031 |
eaf1aeb0702476586824f7368292a1e554c136c8 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xd0b9362911fb9e2d48c64737107e7b04334da016c500e33039f32679d3f9c3c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11PM ET | 78,044,127 | 78,044,127 |
f93cc1e7c38faba66fbae2eb792d6e99d4bab3d2 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0xb96aaa093cf1a7981c98dd5c5ec6579eb5bfc8da79f4e2bbf8c3808cb7258d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET | 78,047,894 | 78,047,894 |
581c63e68881fbd288af7b0fea172ae49fa4bba7 | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x2698afc90a5d720a201f77ce533eced10532b696348102b93715d5226fed913f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2AM ET | 78,047,899 | 78,047,899 |
729d68ba1168b276489b91e31df3cc823c96252c | 0x10e2e609731ac704e692949db8d85b2c77815bed | 0x377fe5690fa355f93b55c3d5e7434d65091800f3eb5c43bddd776f80d1974146 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011855405339748973
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-19-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.8540343737972902e-05
3. Q... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | 78,062,727 | 78,062,727 |
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