sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a0e8af4847c6b6c626172fee202c95b0c7dc9b77 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xf759fba6c4fd415128bc840a1bf99708244720d7e613ef4ca02f0e15157b2f14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? | Event: australia-grand-prix-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | romania-presidential-election-winner | Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | 71,696,674 | 71,696,674 |
c6c8586dad464f5e15518637ddfe6b77da9004a5 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xa90d2e947583a50964efe154c9e5464eeb71f49effc0d401a85649b2fcec6dd7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40 and 50? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | next-government-of-canada | Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | 71,740,498 | 71,740,498 |
eac1e5133d22233c76f73e7aae3dd5db2298c244 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x69c3f09b54e6cbf561205de7177a4cf99634bcf96e880601b124d8ebfdca9e2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40 and 50? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? | 71,779,954 | 71,779,954 |
e3dd504b43f551e56f645b3516687ca99e614575 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x74fa0572e3de0d389d671daf4a085b9b8af9e45688e988c8e4d3ab4254023f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60? | Event: a-minecraft-movie-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend? | Event: minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | 71,779,954 | 71,779,954 |
6430810806e98982355642e329ba0d9f178aaabd | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x247adf17049ce47d4aac459d25a6a78643858a822a29bb87914b1215bbb06229 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend? | Event: minecraft-opening-weekend-box-office-higher-brackets | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025? | Event: march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | 71,965,664 | 71,965,664 |
a25304b04630d4f20b10d889b6367c118eb3abd2 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xac355d65ca89a0f1534fbafd1b775c0eab59d3cea7f36cc13b5bf2696982de99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025? | Event: march-2025-temperature-increase-c | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jake Paul fight... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | 71,965,664 | 71,965,664 |
0949bb8140028829a65b2cfc3862286c195a3ec5 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xb589d9b7c44cf9f181f71da205af30b5c0bc1e78130e2671bd9954598e582af6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? | Event: 2025-masters-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next? | Event: who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? | Event: who-will... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45m views on day 1? | 71,965,664 | 71,965,664 |
5c77ca2b1c7396468f28b06b41980164c7b5b1b0 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x34a4ad8f212d9647f5fd7f1a5ee655c943ae4c7672434d4b852d2216934658fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul fight Canelo Alvarez next? | Event: who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? | Event: who-will-the-giants-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be be... | no | 1 | mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 | Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | 71,997,043 | 71,997,043 |
406943ac609b0695424f2b3f74950efe24917331 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xc0b1d84920cbef42850ac2bd1f66a0577b0173a56106907913eb51b7d1e88f13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? | Event: who-will-the-giants-draft | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 69? | Event: the-accountant-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1111111111111111
3. Question: W... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? | 72,042,402 | 72,042,402 |
ca7637b211791f992a3470c112b7f543c089fdc4 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x6d2f4940373a13567e53de6fd2015186c298249329a5f03771a6b160f5e4a7d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 69? | Event: the-accountant-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1111111111111111
2. Question: Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | Event: the-accountant-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | ... | yes | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | 72,208,376 | 72,208,376 |
c9b8e4d3052df1732c9f865ecf0d7c686744a423 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xed9b1464b36b9ba172b8d4d069ead20590653d84920309f86e2dca201a7d8a8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | Event: the-accountant-2-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-may | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | 72,211,540 | 72,211,540 |
d0450be91c1dfbb7b972cef5e7b7adb235fc7d22 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x0f0ac6d5a5e38f462360666bca837c6ff9fc586a6e28ad3fa64b88c113d98912 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Event: next-prime-minster-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-tot-2025-05-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4... | no | 1 | nothing-ever-happens-may | Nothing Ever Happens: May | 72,225,987 | 72,225,987 |
2ad6dd52c237a0dd84d6da4a0ab74e85a46a1648 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x1e68b29be798c37448e00f83180358d0edb02393f8d6a68d50d1175798865287 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-wes-tot-2025-05-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-3? | Event: nba-playoffs-warriors-vs-rockets-series-outcome-556 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten ... | no | 1 | poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? | 72,303,033 | 72,303,033 |
d87d65fdd0887d520907eb85a464a3b12f03ada5 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xa4f51ae09144ebedb1e4329a28597dcb25217be1050fb76b86335837943bf519 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Warriors beat the Rockets 4-3? | Event: nba-playoffs-warriors-vs-rockets-series-outcome-556 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? | Event: thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-south-korea | Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | 72,328,225 | 72,328,225 |
a8d1befdb0c90d8d2fb711214e791e80c305c331 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x3cab539b7797b6b81369042cfb98af27143893385edd3332f0b9442b4f32aefe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? | Event: thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | Event: thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? | 72,448,183 | 72,448,183 |
4e39bc68b29c5fbb093cbeeb5bb2e534157c83db | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x6009cd63be1742b38865bdaeeb98d39e15bd62be57d51e4788b822bd8576364f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | Event: thunderbolts-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? | 72,448,183 | 72,448,183 |
7ffed16755cd6a441934f09fb6be22a93f218908 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x8ab070685d8939def7cc876617fc3a00a4597f900181f32eb2514db139dba933 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Event: who-will-be-the-next-pope | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Africa? | Ev... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-may-30-june-6-higher-brackets-137 | Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? | 72,448,183 | 72,448,183 |
dac3da0d48451026a8eed0198b2053d0bc4eb378 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x282bad114585f01505d50f161f11bbf8fb3b6d61e6dd45f3952cfa8a256086ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from North America? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from Africa? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe?... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40m views on day 1? | 72,526,766 | 72,526,766 |
c47510c24e0480b0e9979799fd27c8fc567cd2e5 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x3d38be36a998c17b0e7f9618621bd7e2ae1b736991176ee5c75a5859a509c7fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from Africa? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes s... | no | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 20-25m views on day 1? | 72,526,766 | 72,526,766 |
9df4c217a7f8668ec3f64dbd03e5ea20841b365b | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xb1d3425f59ceae2850755ae4f4c5c0d8cb46f4446e3fd191ee4077e0527202f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Pope be from Europe? | Event: what-continent-will-next-pope-be-from | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "F... | no | 1 | 2025-french-open-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? | 72,546,180 | 72,546,180 |
e10fff95a7ffbfc1fd49f466a6798fe7c52eb2a9 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x055e300ef15a5f7b141875f38376e2a60dcd1d59863d84b86691c49a480630bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | how-to-train-your-dragon-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89? | 72,850,278 | 72,850,278 |
b25357d92892c968ae0ce5849d178ddc6dacd243 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x7b3ec660ae61cd66be79eff840762379d2570ef9bebdd09f298584aa21a2be5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 1 | how-to-train-your-dragon-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be 95 or higher? | 72,850,278 | 72,850,278 |
cc16d9e7851f0471932673d988e551dee98d146a | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xd7469c1bd99c2b55f4b7bf663f8e2ced51ebce8b6a9da36074a1a6ed8160338c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | how-to-train-your-dragon-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94? | 72,850,278 | 72,850,278 |
382dd692b97fbf129e2dd5a77b6f1a6bfd9bb9fc | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x8c69b52ae30867bb9a1285b8c72bd96893a96f571a0c3e2f6ef6bcc2cf382b9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Fight or Flight" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? | Event: fight-or-flight-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | ufc-fight-night-hill-vs-rountree-jr-method-of-victory | UFC Fight Night: Will Hill win by KO/TKO? | 73,072,886 | 73,072,886 |
fb09502a962bec7fc7f4eec1917ed566881e8429 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xe55bffa7c89dbc4efc70cc0e0284a05e74f05acea9366a0a8d86440936c4758d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Event: nba-eastern-conference-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner... | yes | 1 | of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-723 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on day 1? | 73,116,005 | 73,116,005 |
69b3bb13e3afd63a9987c882a5c2982c902d146b | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xf2a89afeddff5315e37211b0b0e4e93ed167fba2694cd35c252672d0aca73711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | C... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,116,005 | 73,116,005 |
94c6e67a6021f93ad236d8d53c4eb740be3b3274 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x8472b19329678c2b0e40984e77428d9cd3089a2487fe26e690f417f74c9a4b58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win La Liga? | Event: la-liga-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choi... | yes | 1 | f1-rotten-tomatoes-score-359 | Will "F1" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89? | 73,293,685 | 73,293,685 |
31a38160dc00ca2e233f2ce104d46ed8fb1eb358 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xbb9e7e659b9df1ae1f73e3e3c920e3be5fbea6c2d407dc92e533f315ef65ee55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Event: nba-champion-2024-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? ... | no | 1 | f1-rotten-tomatoes-score-359 | Will "F1" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | 73,293,685 | 73,293,685 |
2c43ce96ee273244e503bbff3fb302d7504fa5ee | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x26ed2c7b22d8bbf6789e76bdcd88c22b605df53e88c7b57fb3dc48b7ab259a8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? | Event: eurovision-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the Romania... | yes | 1 | who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor | Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | 73,319,409 | 73,319,409 |
31166b81d66b88bd665b3d1b9b82d1a684521d70 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x30d37a35600da6a89ae631678a397d68d4cf3071f6d0f0b32b0fb396de325a46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-julio-cesar-chavez-jr | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.? | 73,360,491 | 73,360,491 |
9f8d24bd9bf6bbed5b5a02d5f75ec4386e842c93 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x904f5214fe3687e502e7e73fcb05be2d63c2494a044a8fdcc32a48bc948007f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Event: romania-presidential-election-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | jake-paul-vs-chvez-jr-method-of-victory | Will Jake Paul win by KO/TKO/DQ? | 73,360,491 | 73,360,491 |
748ad2dbc7a37964df4972c26f54fbd6f1f30c71 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x8ee6ab7612226e196528f7f61127c82ba1883dd1f4799cbfb86d4e8a4b430a91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Event: next-government-of-canada | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will George Simion win... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1? | 73,496,917 | 73,496,917 |
a9d5921308f24b83c6d0c235d47dffc0112f277f | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x833fd071dcf33f7f7f5ba1f1bdd31c144c5c9906020b9c47f496478376f4bea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast's next video... | yes | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? | 73,601,881 | 73,601,881 |
8f6d6067075d8ad91e874df3bb8cd1ae1511c787 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xa7630c1f2818a990e59dc205e55679b4dc62c55db8ad0e997cc181bdf6177429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will George Simion win by 0–6%? | Event: romanian-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70–79? | 73,601,881 | 73,601,881 |
b23edbb5d5ee49d94285c12833416f092d375ac4 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xdec80349218f98d030cd5c63f1a436319bc868a93f4928eff4d7e05bed67cc2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 25-30m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1? | 73,601,881 | 73,601,881 |
744cbffcfed5a90669612ab5663e150e48fa1e99 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x9fce789a05c3abd19e9ac2baa6982b0e47ea8eede91d9c6c89229efab8701d7b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | next-president-of-suriname | Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election? | 73,696,599 | 73,696,599 |
a3756e2541088962bc3ece0d5b0ed4a143512aec | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xdfa4be9c6786791072da61477fe3938ee78c8edc2b2e6154239996ab1bc96ae9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45m views on day 1? | Event: of-views-of-next-mrbeast-video-on-day-1-may-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-recko... | yes | 1 | next-president-of-suriname | Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election? | 73,696,599 | 73,696,599 |
e68ad6c1c9a0d73321d09806d5120c3779d23b33 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x821dec2b1e1e7c1d5b420efa23df215a704b7b2fec6d9524f310607b781be375 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 80? | Event: mission-impossible-the-final-reckoning-rotten-tomatoes-score-859 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-2... | no | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m? | 73,707,537 | 73,707,537 |
18960c042d498d217a5acd5ac7e9d7a9dcebbb23 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xb1590ad4c1be4fc31864a08dcc4e445e3759188198b3309ffa9c8a9ae324d338 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-may-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA be th... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-7-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 7 at 5PM ET? | 73,721,670 | 73,721,670 |
983c56ce38b789732077b9bc7ef46f4d394cf5b1 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xba8e6fc7ad7239adc9010b1a964f6592c44ea03de3ae072a9c43d3edb2ee93e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Event: which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | yes | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,815,770 | 73,815,770 |
4542d1d3f2166a4d7a19433d940a75f99f7af5fc | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x657a8d8285e271827872edc7405ab6f1a79fa1d7a2df6f6f19ef2bf30a6bbc6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Event: largest-company-end-of-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: May | Event: nothing-ever-happens-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? ... | yes | 1 | superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89? | 73,854,276 | 73,854,276 |
c8f50114c1e8383d43fa97468455032e43e51fc9 | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0xcf7bad897bff614cdd9e83d11420a3fd2957c8a254dda187b93554362aa833b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Nothing Ever Happens: May | Event: nothing-ever-happens-may | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of S... | no | 1 | superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | 73,854,276 | 73,854,276 |
72d2db70d7d12727c65d34ef430bfa7fb4d12d2f | 0x1102330de18bd0ced2ae7c17b29df2a1e627af36 | 0x321acb77d995e5b4b08236baf95c6247de660f6acdf7793018538b4c7033a114 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? | Event: poland-presidential-election-margin-of-victory | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Event: next-president-of-south-korea | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elo... | yes | 1 | boxing-taylor-vs-serrano-3-winning-method | Will Serrano win by Decision? | 73,881,052 | 73,881,052 |
c59ebf1538270c6f0d114ee9379c31f618de3e75 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x84a6411e0666f19bd49049d0d090f2bc7a148e5642c494ea44bdc143bc31e4e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25?
Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | 67,168,093 | 67,168,093 |
6b47e474552391468a751ec13a28e0fb8d73b1f7 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x02444dec7b53bd60b91ac0c69ce1cf3940989deccecbf50096815ca9b3ead948 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31
Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31
Predict the us... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
7fa1ce76a2cd4073e9806e817ec1fbddcfadcdad | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x124b9bfca87e921a7d5c2b0f6de2805e3c60491a3832b07cce15ec7d039e7e19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
92685bb56b369bb0c5622d401e92abdbb526b842 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x454d5dfaa39a5795bbb4f15567c84b780b88c998d5a576d79f38866be4661e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
05720da3e5730dcc113e988ad35188eb119ac210 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x45a177c2ae334b6bef879bb50dee4a4b8cc1c73917d8c85aefafc17235ded488 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on January 25? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
4fe2014cd464fdddea4065ba93777c060154354a | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x66a380e5f0182b13f56aac55cc60d3c9b5f8a97c115854484e4c871d026954e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31-lower-options | Will Elon tweet 100-124 times Jan 24-31? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
5e9561dc04e35135f29400828c72fe046d9da50c | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x69549cb50429f3feb21116a253f1f7be0469f6eacbe8b27670d2254752a6d4ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on January 25? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
f3c06c2ec740e2a3322cab186110349657e78f19 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x7b0f6f3b168bfeeb8356a2e525d0566bd54118d79a44433485a1ddef9b32dee2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
a415f85b9d7351b820914223a494c747037d6001 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x88d9809dd49ac09811dcfd7bb17a19433acb51b19fd430192bb8ad2a13f9efe0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
a23373cfdb3d739641d3740ef93c1945d667bba4 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x928a41c3f96ce756e4565a7fccbdffa38f398485b37fca59fac064998005556a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
931c4c075b4adcb6c5a6b3e50e756e929823701e | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x98289a306c87a46e882be97eb9ad9070c8be69a7b55cf1ba195edc3fb55a0db4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31-lower-options | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times Jan 24-31? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
c15a06d2c4b2c90db0190095b0284db1ce138260 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0xa55c0e5927de8c1b8804d1fb8b9bff12aa2c59cbb7c2adfcbdee588a45ea4dd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | flight-risk-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $7m and $10m? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
1d53b05c2573731fae08f4eb31f1266d6e47c26d | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0xc32ce44ce8c7464df41c010a0a446dffdf9570d1f5b1790e4262bed043f41bca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
9cd9f595af50a593fafc2e576cb4df35e02a7840 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0xc4f606569acc4d2871bf0cae1b53d0a12dae9f289d2f1011b4ead72b066ac00a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
985eec84b47b1882a8ebd50e5b9ebec65501a189 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0xec11f57e051dc7bda1343a72de189dc22d04b2a8314844aca7b2d0760b86882b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-eve-2025-01-25 | Will Brighton win on 2025-01-25? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
37e79bd4107407cd489c84cb7425f6adba452e90 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0xf2d9e4b280288159c6202e86d6a69e850ce80c361ba09e348de445a951b796f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31 | Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31? | 67,382,163 | 67,382,163 |
ffe823af043eb42e80adb5c588d2ac9537cfa52d | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x00bed1e828b5a916db1be4e9549aa0331c1c8983c8c56b3c8bb863bd5c8dbc12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31-lower-options | Will Elon tweet 150-174 times Jan 24-31? | 67,382,164 | 67,382,164 |
f71a8367106f01da804f07171b7d8a940a2855f7 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0xcf6f91040601326f1e241ecf7072fb0fc962934c84c07fd94cefb518f9e4a5e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-24-31-lower-options | Will Elon tweet 125-149 times Jan 24-31? | 67,382,164 | 67,382,164 |
d1789efc9ab9517c1faaaf87dcb3d41665691e22 | 0x1109d7fb43875d454ee616b6a9f8fa1d1481d517 | 0x4c2024a9764ec9c6f3c931e650075abf6578faf10b909bf73e9dd4d13f5a4bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430B and $435B on January 31 | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-jan-31 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-january-31 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | 67,542,565 | 67,542,565 |
c2f771c23985f957720d9206384beb5e3373016e | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x405534c03f82e56a397478db7b068dbb683fb46c976265f650ba6510200749da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Event: premier-league-winner-24-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | premier-league-winner-24-25 | Liverpool wins the Premier League? | 71,262,186 | 71,262,186 |
7ee0e5d74e93674a26ebd3714a565b72c0fea92d | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x703f03a10efb47c3017a5c211e776ae9433b5cab20ef42c080b66ad2f4a3db68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": .... | up | 0.004651 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | 71,763,378 | 71,763,378 |
50498ac466514e3aad4402cfe2046ebf7a9ca003 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x9c3f817a709e3e912663739bb295693b37a18f324440b90eb8f6ee1df48eaa05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
Target market:
Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24?
Event... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-may-24 | Solana Up or Down on May 24? | 71,923,095 | 71,923,095 |
c3414c45df47b488856feca8f740725f33aba956 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x2fd5e719fe71f36e0fdd19cb2439e764cce413c33aab89df787b197b2dba2910 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-may-25 | XRP Up or Down on May 25? | 71,963,748 | 71,963,748 |
ba7c7e00a7cdaf2648b650604de31e1d70592fbc | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x1f5141c113d4bafd2d9d310d9d1769aa5898c09830b1de57fad1040ba6068a7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? | 71,963,751 | 71,963,751 |
1088bd6f75b72fbe23917a9b933fd59f90474628 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x5115e2c4e464f8026e5cc551125a6cd55457e7c520135b8fd2ed6e991dd023e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Solana Up or Down on May 27? | 72,042,729 | 72,042,729 |
0ce00f7b8598c404c4850f085af0d664a3ed8c0e | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x49b72dc8c17e6c15c5c6c3d8538b1c1c54cc46219fc15729d470ccc19f86fdd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-may-27 | XRP Up or Down on May 27? | 72,042,738 | 72,042,738 |
a1a0e7e7b97dd2854acbdc2856077540ead814cf | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x403797f35c05bc86a7a0cd525bdc049d37d2808dcf9b630410ff9bdb92680d95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? | 72,042,742 | 72,042,742 |
802fa687ca60e5643e71d8e73b5881118f45d5c6 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x3af6f260286b99310b1cafae9e5c301f949bad7cfca67beb5299c56771d6d2dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-may-29-422 | XRP Up or Down on May 29? | 72,124,811 | 72,124,811 |
0af56cb4a3ea0f067d73cf64f46106b37bb2f875 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x38f5f08414f28184a80c38cfc2370121b97b335f987450a3de11cb43afb8471c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-29-342 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? | 72,124,816 | 72,124,816 |
78f743b12b56038e10737251f9a906ad6fe8d3cc | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xbcc3a35f0fcdd1c61a8aa6665ffb6200d1a20fc69c6243ea873aa77eb9567048 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-may-29-754 | Solana Up or Down on May 29? | 72,124,818 | 72,124,818 |
025a292ca2c9030a102ae23d3a5062d2d728beb8 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x3f15198c2ed63acb34b590b2802ba24a92f97996051373def05e1f24d138261b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-may-30 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? | 72,165,625 | 72,165,625 |
c4e63fdb14b351e5ddfcf939ba82eb5b5ba482f2 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x19755caafe5f08effa3afceba6f585f20d70083a13c53b88b3cf74e20faad1b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | no | 1 | ethereum-above-2800-on-may-30 | Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? | 72,165,634 | 72,165,634 |
79ed1d2a99049bc7be907feacb2f4677f74069da | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x0fb0e26f0713c4e196db5fd055692f1caae08afe84ca2faf80f131efdd4d27bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Solana Up or Down on June 1? | 72,245,258 | 72,245,258 |
fa6a494320dbe213a91751f9941b15d56fb1ab3a | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x9624091fa4900951a52d83c762121e3ec6bb521a0c7358a465440f775437e17e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-1 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? | 72,245,263 | 72,245,263 |
d07f0cffdc4187859f6773bc8653c502f7d12149 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x6ef71573e60b37e542c747d3eb6e112ceaf852ff524e89772ee7ced56427032c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-1 | XRP Up or Down on June 1? | 72,245,266 | 72,245,266 |
f429ab183dd9cf342df6efc509fad2fc1b9e324b | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x53621d241d5d0c81b968f52d36b8d380c5f0550feca0e0e69dc7e6ea9ad75bdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-3 | XRP Up or Down on June 3? | 72,326,384 | 72,326,384 |
990cabc682c8fd46b72c7c5ea490b165865f9cff | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x6085a86af4e24e899f3872798902d9f2042173dac66652663527e512e5203379 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Solana Up or Down on June 4? | 72,365,850 | 72,365,850 |
7fce8365f760700d888e43bb4358d637ca659c1b | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x533698648ff2d4f95f73f431466de81d7ef4014acd288b4ee64a90ca51c7206c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-4 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? | 72,365,856 | 72,365,856 |
005e1196b5f06791b5693292b2c74517d16219c2 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xc39f08bd6cfb8bdf4b7e9cfcadd44aed5d597f9d8c2c1ce74aa573bb6187b6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-4 | XRP Up or Down on June 4? | 72,365,861 | 72,365,861 |
a0932f3c0e7680426c0cf920da2e05d1c724f4f2 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xcfc4861716349e95e260441d574144365fe1ee73d8cf3f8e97a15596cbb47a0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Solana Up or Down on June 5? | 72,406,484 | 72,406,484 |
20ab8f96bea9d7c58c3e443d21f11cc13b9511e9 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x0fd38fdde968e5b7862596ccabc06a806a4a5157a4fbab0a6c03e1272a9fef5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-5 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? | 72,406,520 | 72,406,520 |
9e2b97d37724a05d2eda30086d52bde317f1dd5e | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xdfa6965b2aaec84fb3360f53bbffbfc1012dd249cbc79515deafa067b55a8d42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-6-952 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? | 72,445,043 | 72,445,043 |
70c231c5f1a81b35b31dc4c1d15ae27ff226fc24 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x6a3158a278d72dc17055a4c05816106a596d5688eb9e86d05c485198d296b437 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-6-584 | XRP Up or Down on June 6? | 72,445,052 | 72,445,052 |
1314f3f26d66d373ccb88529ed8d79726aab8648 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x6d3e756af6e33d89f9a9dfa7efbd93f47841baa7178a7348190081dc59de35e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-6-476 | Solana Up or Down on June 6? | 72,445,058 | 72,445,058 |
25b8221df5a327ec3048c209926161ad79d2f6b8 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x2ab5dcb1d15d47cb054c68791e2c62bf8acaa28f0c8bff09eb51f12c37532995 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? | 72,530,331 | 72,530,331 |
6cbde8463ea8af3900c93aef102e03d31f1343fb | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x540dd35a9b443e3228a8f6b5b7639adabe9afb78b5415e3ca869d7b7c52e654d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-8 | XRP Up or Down on June 8? | 72,530,339 | 72,530,339 |
b5669753d0685b618d366691c6a28aa84ca93a25 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xdf1242cd50aaa9c74ed0dccc90985cb27dc31dfea8123d4987d7f8cc964c8a80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 0.875 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-8 | Solana Up or Down on June 8? | 72,530,343 | 72,530,343 |
d1519f11c3912efb10fdb0262cc7ab8a5e008676 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xdcb8fdd6720801879dcae9aad9a2da54031030d8914765a5358eebe37145f4d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-9 | Solana Up or Down on June 9? | 72,568,736 | 72,568,736 |
1bfe1a7a581b962fa1078dd4572f2cd3026b69bf | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x34ec41d5145644c4bbc6031626e115b207de296f61732ae1437dacb127117d3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | down | 1 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-june-10 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? | 72,610,216 | 72,610,216 |
779403304511d07ad5f99bd9d1b041e23081bde1 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xa1fb4eda6bc160fd21621908e0d0f20add8b7a779245a3e09b51ae3172d033a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up... | up | 1 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-june-10 | Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? | 72,610,220 | 72,610,220 |
d4a55d3f3dc9a3050625c5f275684106bc6ea86a | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x615d1298a1f175a062587b28c798e665c3260b659ddfc1fdd31a4af92506cbcc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-20 | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.004651031952423746
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-24 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 25? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-on-june-10 | XRP Up or Down on June 10? | 72,610,223 | 72,610,223 |
d3bbc1ef8ade8382f9a9447eb4a070a6c71e4df4 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x5f8ec271dd99c95acae3eef7feb25c068fd1d7e76dcf665ccda4b57ec1a1717c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 24? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-24 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 25? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25 | Choic... | up | 0.952347 | solana-up-or-down-on-june-10 | Solana Up or Down on June 10? | 72,610,226 | 72,610,226 |
8a94f99091e8998e9b2f2a643a8b4c773f6441b3 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x02f675663a1429fe6ef53eec8ce20a25b901a471a78943a2a6b5b8e14239f934 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 25? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 27? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choic... | no | 0.417334 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 10? | 72,610,229 | 72,610,229 |
93a4c36aa95ea0cd7b77c6e9773955c4dc1098ec | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x563a59e8b12f62d138a0641f692e84da71e1ca530ed37aea2f33c88fff916358 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 27? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 27? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choic... | yes | 0.994985 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 10? | 72,610,234 | 72,610,234 |
aad72a8ff6c239fb96795e1104581269a16cf8f8 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0xa1e8363daa24f7f2f4ea8f2fc7f1974593b491e346cee635903b7a789fa86e6f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down on May 27? | Event: solana-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 27? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choic... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-10-267 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $107K on June 10? | 72,610,234 | 72,610,234 |
ccaf67debb7fbe81fab2a303f4f8950ebe3aa671 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x47e0fde9f8e00c0128a67585284fbd2540bbc0a0f3dca77bfdd3c946f8af5af5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 27? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 29? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-29-422 | Choice:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-june-10 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on June 10? | 72,610,235 | 72,610,235 |
8ca6f869383c7096f155c2774904381420a014a3 | 0x1150f5d8a5e9fe401c7b1b76858fedc442a8ef2f | 0x0541c34836def13dd4c5a90040295553f8b8051533e414eab92c1d86e78f0260 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-27 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down on May 29? | Event: xrp-up-or-down-on-may-29-422 | Choice: up | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-29-342... | no | 0.935484 | bitcoin-price-on-june-10-267 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 10? | 72,610,237 | 72,610,237 |
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