sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
34f206dbdcdb5568d585dc0d2a602950fac0dad0 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x052b959e5dadcaa55c11a94fa7620c5165e705bc7780b07d0b3a4c3692dd2c63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | 78,094,501 | 78,094,501 |
3018557a245ad0c3d49bf9f5f1c0e7de7c24ca4e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x1975fb819583efa3a7546fe264506ff52a71e0ae63d4bedad62b2a2cae3b71d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00032710696397722055
3. Question: Ethereum Up ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | 78,095,102 | 78,095,102 |
ae2419c4b1c3fc6308a1677ec332bed70e341db9 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x9e0c6051faa0eafd8087a700a428569c463df125ed6352dcc42a2786433d8bb0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00032710696397722055
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana U... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | 78,095,401 | 78,095,401 |
eaaf6a29610bf13024b3c98d70d4816860ce7e1b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xa90893bfe2c2e586d79c44d1952a768f9a281ab579580118dabb334df0e2fc4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | 78,096,481 | 78,096,481 |
4285e9330c98be55628afba6185b0d153835a3cb | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xe82a341a2280ea0d6150cf0916e368a2accb29e919da02ca096f9968485da61a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10PM E... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | 78,096,571 | 78,096,571 |
c52f4fbc84182b086058ccbeb43bfecad688415c | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x577f7b382c3fe099252c1142198d81a5c0259b8fe90f61f1983db978cbd99077 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 1... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | 78,096,575 | 78,096,575 |
655db92eb41049b3d6a754d0accb3e1db0481e95 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x66e1e425328abc6b667d309a18fd55f2fcbaa5d8393eafd5594c826df7a19c95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001722296579470985
3. Question: XRP U... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | 78,098,191 | 78,098,191 |
aef3273fd9c7e85c6cc89bca22eb0294e9c3a0b1 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x212ba3c5df18f9faaa1cff009ef385e3f8b0a0585edfb3faf13d07f8496ee019 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0001722296579470985
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | 78,098,224 | 78,098,224 |
2cddfb021d3982cb7ccfd97e3fe12375bd14811b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x39ee64f153b377c60a1a46874876e80b2ad7c91abe512c7e72191fe6f727f899 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 1... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | 78,098,341 | 78,098,341 |
538217086778cd6d2aa34f75fd131f3cb2e89107 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x4f5d61fa6d63726c173cc5a34452dba9686c34a90838087c41b146c11aef0a7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octo... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | 78,098,852 | 78,098,852 |
9948d3c71c2d3a075361b28578f2c31aec575654 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xeec2e076f416170f6193f1e9926467a15e136892a9e1962e77fffc8df1fd79bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00016222631310798611
3. Question: XRP Up... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | 78,099,991 | 78,099,991 |
6560c79c9ec60e8bc3c2f19eab29e22cb76613bf | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x363749c3abe633aac04ae06e214e61be717a1c2aefbfd0dc5ce6f4788edb105d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00016222631310798611
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Dow... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | 78,099,995 | 78,099,995 |
73c3420ef1687b738618141ee8d6f7d885c33448 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0424e986e902273d84c7fa4e1741d15609f4128fdb931f0d61478e3750128e5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12A... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | 78,100,082 | 78,100,082 |
5f828ebd0dd1408e2053d17eb45950d7010518fc | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5c5aeefdeedc5c71dc18853b73678c3f29d76d8e6ef784690ece07dfc5da0e32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | 78,100,086 | 78,100,086 |
2c23d88b9faf88de210aa860c142307d65db645e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x10736b44f6d995dc5fa4df4ad1074b85917d0c53b0496b36c06f8069688495f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | 78,101,821 | 78,101,821 |
5f0d4bbeb974d3c4ed204b094184d152028d6ba3 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xcabbe324f6a4f71a6536618b3f1f30a12ed1ce4ef5f7e34192d4b8bcd3416d40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | 78,102,061 | 78,102,061 |
5cf083b04fa0be148f348932ff9964899ae13cf2 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x93592f804664e45ec54155210fcadc8072a7763696d235aab8222f26b7031332 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Oc... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | 78,102,151 | 78,102,151 |
59149185710d8483c9fd8a25e7effa71672e5e5e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x622ccc6da8e30cf1ac34ecdc99dc9a67586e09c1ac12b3c1fe620954640f69b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | 78,102,571 | 78,102,571 |
02a5ab28dcac1166d304006e0f18b303aa629570 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x3dc994133034af19f4f974e9bba2c8a3ac2040a9611834eba48133fd1edd4ff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 2... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | 78,103,652 | 78,103,652 |
637328794bcaa3da8390838deeda5f2085ac9710 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xb8ed996a8135006afb1aa590ba18dbe313a008673a2bf7cceffc56fb65565cf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011543832446860178
3. Question: Ethereum U... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | 78,103,741 | 78,103,741 |
10640e90135424374608dd65ff4a6a5b65cfc5fe | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x8ef2be506ae65dfc6442e4cf8823e07876acf554e4db6b09792c1826ba8e9e69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00011543832446860178
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoi... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | 78,104,042 | 78,104,042 |
d65a3e8f5feede5460f7ecef83aea889e23067bc | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x040ba27b6b69e8c85b66c9ab57841136980328efc93c9f8a544d8723fd04ab0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | 78,104,132 | 78,104,132 |
b6b8001c4d92eae155609713fd2a8f2b928d0336 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x594c27e31be31907b4e575b7f48946291d6fb24fc65a384b5511597b6769d8a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2AM E... | down | 0.000068 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10AM ET | 78,106,333 | 78,106,333 |
cc63cca139636081f16b35e6c7e80ed3e49295de | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x707f103341724eb44a6706fca1e3149732937d50b92c1e293fb2154c914950cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10AM ET | 78,106,354 | 78,106,354 |
2b52b414a1a503c6301c9ca59dab2b50a7f45131 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x53a0a5487140d0b94f4657c67c0b4d3b31d65cb58368c487e8a90b17c7eba880 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 2... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | 78,107,634 | 78,107,634 |
b2d99a129a2dc0c25ad896ec6dcb2276336447c7 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x22af33175b2e978a74ccba1e8734cdf91ef8e8a66c1b4844a0c4752ef2e31c7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002059924241397516
3. Question: Solana Up... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | 78,107,672 | 78,107,672 |
42cf3e48b54301ff905348a17a641ab9010809a5 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x9b59303062898962b941cad5dbae74c150d0f11793a8721607854dad97ed5be0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0002059924241397516
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00013611852573135205
3. Qu... | up | 0.000067 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | 78,107,731 | 78,107,731 |
d1a76e49673197eb96930c56cfc76ba37ee393a0 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5c9c7fd3168e7cdf22a867217e22e5cb4b748438981a20f032d30abbe707da23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00013611852573135205
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Oct... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | 78,107,911 | 78,107,911 |
d95d994bc9c949b751ef1cb8dc4d568374260c89 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xe1906f13691d1f742e6da26b53bd0b31b2b2392878f3da1a580daae793980256 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | 78,109,051 | 78,109,051 |
0bae2b1b2b37357e6fa8082065262eacbd31aee1 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x37a6a7ee6fa638ef00b835b5b09003a913c9ee09f95a12532dd1c858bb1de30e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4AM... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | 78,109,171 | 78,109,171 |
3b5547daf0f17b87dcea9154d0efbc117d898374 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x51a63e11a3af46b0cf1cad50e59f52264f774eb73e8a05553f3bb75dddfc975d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | 78,109,204 | 78,109,204 |
c688ccb882725361191f8fa37e666c61a856f2f4 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x772fa801bb9b817d92139ca28fe64499101c01f2b15517a240b89519d6c853e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 2... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | 78,109,411 | 78,109,411 |
2d0f3bc3f01338e5e93ecc4d4daa6006481eedfc | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x401982556983fc3678aeced7b7997987e6761ff2e8324c652b45d20e82e0d78f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-25 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25? | 78,112,501 | 78,113,095 |
2da5c6a4db8a7728ecba2e1af586c87b13f0e065 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xb275312a225b95f3aa5250b158b6c586e9ddba25299082823fa00c8b8791c8e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5A... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | 78,112,620 | 78,112,620 |
7a5c22667bd94d847c8db446ef0fb48aa6b90ef3 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x7637d8090c7a5c4be4ed128e2843b63c57e3498a17015dfa2accdc03e9d9913b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET |... | up | 0.000055 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | 78,112,623 | 78,112,741 |
2c379017a0b34f5474c1cfaf8e0982a543317a00 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x6e84d224c08861aaa4861eaa000f5fd5d6afea6a57a897e923fa40b424d3ddd1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ... | up | 0.000066 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | 78,112,773 | 78,112,773 |
9a419d234ace94660d31000f3fff0d844414a0cd | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x3a53f3c72aef1e542e7ff2e7be4254b286da9eee268581422eda190abb5138a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6AM... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | 78,112,777 | 78,112,777 |
bb00f43e7374df167a722ca491cdf80aa82b8317 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc4ef78ffd30079d960a9cf2bba8ae9d1c70522b7ce62ac732ab13b33cb3ef3ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October... | up | 0.000092 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | 78,114,450 | 78,114,450 |
3f8be1d96d7282d5a66ee5268dad82978d746c5a | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x3ec1658536a0befd3d1a8f8e597aa61612d9be870087a5ad485192fa2771efca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October... | up | 0.000103 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | 78,114,660 | 78,114,660 |
6440d691e6351ffa68bf2143c2d96a9bbc3b4fff | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xbc0c1083d32d8a3d72b588d95893c702505f6677827c1a1b18c6c7900138e141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 6AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | up | 0.000112 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | 78,114,691 | 78,114,691 |
1129aa9aa801b3bd4188c91f29bcb847a820dd43 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xe878dcf3f3dc437ad0ff736edbbdb45629226485d407352f5ef43a980493a747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | 78,114,960 | 78,114,960 |
8ff261a1a8808ba89847e8fa18c22a65dfed9ca8 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x308645dcdf0ec286bc8c73db117964b70ca9749c34637856b15847cb5d7e6073 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7A... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | 78,116,250 | 78,116,250 |
2c9f22cd12263eed8268ec0b2d5751bee54cdfed | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x8742baf4428d41c75aaebfe3d609dd35254ec5209b4a1402260cb01ea9b3daff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8AM E... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | 78,116,281 | 78,116,281 |
a3b9391797fbeba574d38bf9209dff45b5c30d1f | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x8df778560244285972d4576bd06c7aa91890598da2c8a6c0e9b9ba71049c6042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8A... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | 78,116,340 | 78,116,340 |
e161f42966092e6db2203c51b4b8c28bff2187c1 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x18e17f8501172095b57974c22113a22ce22ec4bbdbf1bed08bf3c6862fb71017 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | 78,116,700 | 78,116,700 |
68f8e5316deabdfbd2d84e0b7ca5a10f707d9a10 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x9da575a041f782a3a6246ab8ab567a73cab28e9e062389252d327133fceaceb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 8AM E... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET | 78,118,260 | 78,118,260 |
16aaa19e5520882dc72e1958f6505fe3df061b3b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x90283d58991dfb55e9d85a540e81f202accb621cb5ffd88d6643ab8c35fba107 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | E... | up | 0.000173 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET | 78,118,740 | 78,118,740 |
99662366e7c0804445e490c09860d2f6753f71bc | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xa7b021cf25f964fb0aa0509cca745a2af233bc850a707507e1a160902f8f0681 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9AM E... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET | 78,120,000 | 78,120,000 |
0a1eb1f37ea51a1a77291babab25af8e4d629419 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5390c07f40d071458dcb0eaf5ad5c2c06e69174d6e1626b20b66461d15085d62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 9AM... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET | 78,120,360 | 78,120,360 |
785270c331fc9361b377aa5f603391b01057f8ef | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x38e4f517fc8e7680c2b4515fb32e8f67476bc1bbeb721f954cbbba1872b90f16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | 78,121,650 | 78,121,650 |
a902be9aec0e125603472ab6b60a5ae7d482db39 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x7ca413f8dba53ecdf58bc9652fa346a93d10c52652b6c067a7fe28fbfd6231cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 2... | down | 0.00005 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | 78,121,681 | 78,121,681 |
fad295012e2f612d80abe340b9fe5d7555137f69 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc8b3f4c4c2472fb083a788d84ca5b94f32ad82d735e6302f8b05eafc87f48f9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.839467751199504e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | 78,122,190 | 78,122,190 |
24838378469e0b89d25b7b9b779679ad5b38bcb6 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc845d9c2efbd08884951ab559e901f128a283c3d49654acfd4191ed53f31f063 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 6.839467751199504e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ether... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET | 78,123,480 | 78,123,480 |
d7ef07d247f74393c061f313d3525e39879e5d87 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xa77409f02192b2066ab9c3b2ad5720936b5a5be2cf34279089c78c1792a62e38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET | 78,123,600 | 78,123,600 |
aa7c7455b56f7fa7503019a3074ec75a6a58bd7d | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc8697f85e2296c8806bf278c29a26700daac26ebf779012d71535e5721765b3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | 78,125,220 | 78,125,220 |
ac1b8992857ed6c2e6dfefa433cd5d40740663f7 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x6fb2db2be9efbc7142fe9463bd75511cc76329e9cf8fce757531c4b3860c7c96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.668444651889388e-05
3. Question: Solana Up or Down... | up | 0.000053 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | 78,125,251 | 78,125,251 |
60960f8b5e113ae7c0c6df693533943d704b349b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x04d4a29ceae226777d589005a02b4b76c0e664d25ae042d274f74f18d652e06c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.668444651889388e-05
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | up | 0.000005 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | 78,125,370 | 78,125,370 |
c69cd1514255c196526941265c402e6c376576ff | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x421d5e82927c16cb10cf6fd430e90c68f879fa5db8b8870e2d319982520c0cc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Octob... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET | 78,127,170 | 78,127,170 |
ecefe50156fb1472cbb2ed7b9e5b2af5a181fbbf | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x9cd75b1cd962ee64652746999f856dd5c581516ddb41d612babbb7005f14e38b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Oct... | down | 0.000008 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET | 78,127,380 | 78,127,380 |
1ce78f67bdb5831d16f4ab48f57764fc45772469 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x8db393afe8f3e4d8d3de747651460dae6482588e8f147a65fda9e97b8b5ca8da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October ... | down | 0.000088 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | 78,129,030 | 78,129,030 |
24fe29680e7322dbb1e93f6f83e490605e562193 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xb11c10d13135a63609a1c4cd6de5401822f40967169afcf53634770b947f4af0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25? |... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | 78,129,480 | 78,129,480 |
78fff5c15c8c652595b5412a69b0e96e6e4fde6e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x539d98fe088b1146d0e56e4f84bfc2648e91f4f41f9ee7591bcade7ee5aff31d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Even... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | 78,129,600 | 78,129,600 |
70664daf71a899f430e532e1ea2c9bf5265522e3 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x4e3321a592ac9873dc5be8afc653d08a5e7c71106ad6eba4b95a232f4e284c18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25? | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-on-october-25 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET |... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | 78,129,780 | 78,129,780 |
8438772e6a6529010d7662ed1e5aaf04cbe0bed5 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xb17d11eaaf8bca3286b6d931a652357a4997420f00606c253a5e21027c896a43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.463298459994869e-05
3. Question: Ethereum Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | 78,130,710 | 78,130,771 |
35fb7772568d19878c32188a93b8814705ffa4a9 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc7cf326430ab3a37fb5edcf45ed94c6d0cf3145be28af24be8066b20edbebd57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.463298459994869e-05
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.600435628751498e-05
3. Quest... | up | 0.000034 | xrp-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | 78,131,400 | 78,131,400 |
24b9441fc5ec5a4eecab52972289b45b538867d7 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xf869394ef2112912b0ce90c9f0ff9d942f1fefea51bed680859ecf5f19e7df12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.600435628751498e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | 78,131,459 | 78,131,459 |
1ed8030752320fdec67d308e22e89c75bed2a73d | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x1088120c5b1a8a37f867d5043a9307d6af89b61d77d96931ab389e50c50238b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.234852746302594e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | 78,131,550 | 78,131,550 |
23c17dadbef143108c5cda8154f4fce9721c234b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x6e0c3669a432667125c40a1b26648da9e150b1cc626e02945040b79426540044 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 9.234852746302594e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0001026105278401564
3. Quest... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | 78,134,429 | 78,134,549 |
39e7d0b0157f77f644bc54163caae9b7c782c7c4 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xe9243fc8b134efd6f327b6a8f7a5166a9010087bf196ebe0f3d137dfe76c07ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0001026105278401564
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011244597600923597
3. Question... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | 78,134,699 | 78,134,699 |
fa485d6bde9dde969e37d0b7b9645758165fae1a | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x3fff228fdfe3952105155b400c46ad2f153de491a998725b158b9c4388f7bd62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00011244597600923597
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET | 78,137,909 | 78,138,239 |
54d3f38cd243582963fc49a3ae271488b1893cde | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xbe542b4e28c1c6b5f1bda636cb8fa67bf61c77860f443bc28e771cc3a9bc168b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4P... | up | 0.000064 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-4am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET | 78,137,941 | 78,137,941 |
0ad8ad7c63dc40869da02381e108f414a7084456 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xf9db7167d1c073b4def4922b8d64313e305b590101f6780f803f98fe42310c3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-25-4am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET | 78,137,999 | 78,137,999 |
11ff09611fd32e8262828eedd3733f9961911fe6 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x71fc0803a144ec7c2134045f8faebd86e8f025740e37cb60c05ec926ca02fde4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4PM E... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-25-4am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET | 78,138,119 | 78,138,119 |
71bb5de57fd2d2837b3b523d030f657999234989 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2627ac3cd2e9d77a8430fbd56fa2fc669384880f4fe0b1fa7a6ea95ee5c8a873 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5PM E... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 5AM ET | 78,139,769 | 78,139,769 |
d2013f1a6d6594052c9342d741c526cd75a4a3ee | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x4127855936815d4aa0a6c235540d502070427d303ade60dd4c4e8ddfa56f42da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0.000079 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5AM ET | 78,139,772 | 78,139,829 |
6e6c0b573c0d02aab95ed2393253cfe2fe2f6a83 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xeb0bc335d9943f75b96e8c95136b898dff37b60055815fce8f2bb6c53ef0cf8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00017257977864080446
3. Question: Ethereum U... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-25-6am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 25, 6AM ET | 78,141,570 | 78,141,570 |
8bb2aec076c2bbe43c8b5331efe49f92132a7b66 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xfba652030d5a0f34522cea7250ba12aeffb89640bdd1c052307210daf77d2cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00017257977864080446
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-25-6am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 25, 6AM ET | 78,141,601 | 78,141,601 |
9a45f1d2f98792434eb83b788c5e2c89d81d50d2 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x66d8b033c338442be8046ab72ad5f6d6113612c4d8c41f5848b976b1681be25b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Octob... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6AM ET | 78,141,659 | 78,141,659 |
559368242b2fd52a61217bc0d4e5afb927336d07 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xbe158e11a4f7cb9fbd9ed3bab0a6b82e8b0b53ca99ea6e274caca7b65e181505 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7AM ET | 78,143,369 | 78,143,460 |
25a2c23d83fbef83b24c0c9f0c5fcbe841a874f7 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0f958486af7b78efa927818549d7dba1183630791fd7f48accd520f477da3e0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.000250012500625e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Dow... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-25-7am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 25, 7AM ET | 78,143,579 | 78,143,579 |
df5f51601e5cdd5c42981436257a2e0428a05b63 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xd67f1a82fec72f0f4ad470b1023324d3ae8eedcc0df331c270a3dd700eacabc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 5.000250012500625e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down... | down | 0.000012 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 7AM ET | 78,144,329 | 78,144,329 |
abab10e755b92ca75e047313bb728774653800e4 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2e9c8bf2cbf8233cc04f99f2c10e03e3d3af7fd0b37a55e62d7cf24ec7d13e4e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8AM ET | 78,145,079 | 78,145,079 |
7adc79e2f153339e101fdf5512e8ac408d034063 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc9ec5168db8f1988accd417bdf662c8b4f6d5d4bdea512a7c6d7a7994764f599 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Octob... | up | 0.0001 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8AM ET | 78,145,109 | 78,145,109 |
3fed2805dd170f5e269d4ff5435c4660afae10e2 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc0a89ce815f58873207c2f1040c7538c2054ac61f17476fb15d20d4690a6d15f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-25-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 25, 8AM ET | 78,145,469 | 78,145,469 |
e09d3400300de60400850e8e9e5ad5ec07aa2cff | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0ca361037caa746f60b82154e50d2116e4f8457de217d00a54b1da5a864dffb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.3272837844071954e-05
3. Question: XRP Up or ... | down | 0.00009 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET | 78,146,909 | 78,146,909 |
c528d6b09b01a81424f8fdc3474c0e86f8a0ff96 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x698ffbf0269fb24c5719b8736577eacc620650f4c7301de35557c8f6326886f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 5.3272837844071954e-05
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.89002391221693e-06
3. Question: Bitco... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET | 78,146,969 | 78,146,969 |
1bf2449eb09d5dc8bd9d54bc25ae7d7d53952d44 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xa0b4732623b9558703aa26280cb58417dddccc10959be32838299a71a7f6e96b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 4.89002391221693e-06
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6AM ET | 78,184,900 | 78,184,900 |
93ce60ae7aa21c717db776641a96035c98ae4829 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x80d0898f6db509573182d1e5902abeedffba537b402dfa7f6a7eb88593402a1b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.490072080711966e-06
3. Question: Ether... | down | 0.000111 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-26-6am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 6AM ET | 78,184,929 | 78,184,929 |
91a2edd4a48f83cec8aee08a0303050f94542f1e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x84574db334b4b2aea74b73082b23bc064d907c99ef1d3d9d0bddae1dddac2777 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-10pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.490072080711966e-06
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.789772533107935e-0... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET | 78,186,479 | 78,186,479 |
bc97c46e294de465be00eb041d6f07f3dcc42ed7 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xa1676ca4ca6298496d03556fb4f888e8595cc3c60cd1be7692642c7c16d0df19 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 8.789772533107935e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solan... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-26-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7AM ET | 78,186,549 | 78,186,549 |
fe51d4d64d697ae664c84ccb0f7c1628ff36c62f | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x13b127eb7839e9effe6642439512c08063e9b69089d1c0380f60b03ef4983324 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET | 78,188,269 | 78,188,269 |
16f99c1f3f75c68d22398fba3baf0a6b96dcea21 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xeab730af025656ffd5e0ce3045e6c1f21404d1644d135b90116002a186d14780 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-26-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET | 78,188,359 | 78,188,359 |
8d3cba9d570df7aaf841d7df7ee81f39702f9adf | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0997f9c76bcf87b59121c7a88be4676fd51f05cbb6892fcaa38df61294da6b76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 11PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-24-11pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 25, 12AM... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-26-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET | 78,188,469 | 78,188,469 |
0c1638f887da11c674e19fd29bcd417dfe35fafa | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xa837888491a6fd551f319538882864d5f016abde62b7523f778455c1e25b98e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.350112228759664e-05
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Do... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-26-8am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET | 78,189,300 | 78,189,300 |
7bd07659de8235b07079b51a16e32f8c67bf862e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2e37e72965841018d64358a682dfd547031747c4d940ada5931c89ba49c0bf47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 3.350112228759664e-05
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Do... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-26-9am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET | 78,190,129 | 78,190,129 |
8642fb6c9bfe747bdbe53240e3fd5ab40b97ffec | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x054980f04798d54137a1ad37fb56a395cab12ee7c3b8e9c7a3061ee5c4e326bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octo... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-26-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET | 78,190,319 | 78,190,319 |
1dc9a512c936dfe2e773fc6a05639dc582f48c8b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x7702447bb58419228328132df3e2bd5fbbc2b017dbace825b143a10a5698b906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 25, 12AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-25-12am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET | 78,190,479 | 78,190,479 |
92073a8c1f18a2ba081455d773dd226d2a5292fd | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5bd5a205fdd8ec874b51e04df1c3e0e19cc4d5a930f99579473b6489034164af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | up | 0.000062 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-26-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET | 78,192,489 | 78,192,489 |
62b3925b76e07f4b3f7eb6df0758c30ba117da92 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x6722cb073e9560c24442e61fbd2e6d60e4b4f710e58a596168b0329163656e2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Octob... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-26-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET | 78,192,519 | 78,192,519 |
3786bc92faf620dc430d1fef3b735117830e37a4 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xbaa35f47d5385ebae4260ca1b6964630fc20661b70f7956178dcdbc7f9105208 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-25-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-25-4am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 6.41041090733916e-05
3. Question: Solana Up or... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-26-10am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET | 78,192,590 | 78,192,590 |
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