sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5b4b3775bc837635a69e2b25747c5555d06e8486 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x89b6e701e9b25dece0098c1fa93ff66895c4a2650073b456354d043da452b292 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | uef-cze-gib-2025-11-17 | Will Czechia win on 2025-11-17? | 79,170,377 | 79,170,377 |
99d02eb1a4f58fc1f0eed293311a0ed2274dbf56 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x8e02e71440f009e122cec76592300a1e41f44c1fa5f63a10ac2de919bebb8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | 79,170,377 | 79,170,377 |
85db90bfab85d572a764ff17c23f1a089909b263 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xb03a595d2a38347e2e8abf145099690823542377f34fe98ede3f03d295533e4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | uef-nld-lit-2025-11-17 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17? | 79,170,377 | 79,170,377 |
81d2f61272587175596687ed7131f7640d586acd | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x444ba8f5da7842ae7213ea455be6dd5f9f7c4ef0575840b9d8237124a0f72268 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | uef-kvx-che-2025-11-18 | Will Kosovo win on 2025-11-18? | 79,212,826 | 79,212,826 |
a51ebc4eeed0838eb0a60c9bb6129e5af2e2e904 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x523c0a370b7b8158307e54525b534002395688622395458162277adb5562b6e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | uef-rom-smr-2025-11-18 | Will Romania win on 2025-11-18? | 79,212,826 | 79,212,826 |
06fe84d93ad496038a3859bbf36d3a9f52eb0a39 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xb7958fdd1c7d532d702b0768775979b99f448dc8f67bca40900412a9e45d83f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | uef-bel1-grc-2025-11-18 | Will Belarus win on 2025-11-18? | 79,212,826 | 79,212,826 |
cdd3a589c1485f07ee57748733b9ad548b982726 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xfed976a8465df16ff0aeb9dbf2638eaee9de4f082b2b861cbb023814eaf138fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | uef-bel-lie-2025-11-18 | Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? | 79,212,826 | 79,212,826 |
cfd1861e326d91104ce3951acb6c504bbc498ff7 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x0fcdbf577c19adaed1f3eaa6a52e3ec478766e14d5c2491e0a6f4992c02184d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 18 2025? | 79,235,276 | 79,235,276 |
df0ccb3dd989a7a40a3ec6145276e2012b4de967 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x14b7c150b38751373082088698a48b7cea6a8dfc17a5a6fc5df4a77de3c7e9a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 18 2025? | 79,235,276 | 79,235,276 |
f8051d1254f856b2a6e927f771f01f5793a83382 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xa4d563f45bffc849d50830c3578407a9416da11d50f8ee7212c4bc68df1fc0ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 18 2025? | 79,235,276 | 79,235,276 |
48fe67b80eddd818aa39199b899b9b4030ee185d | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xb43c01658e4b43119e373182797deb7824457210675bb6d507300d783f1601af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 18 2025? | 79,235,276 | 79,235,276 |
9cc9219ccb3d84b7eec09f32a34448161f016496 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x448796fe68e9276d81b6bcf394821f3087ddc9b34b706473ea5f66168c18db66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | elc-lei-sto-2025-11-22 | Will Leicester City FC win on 2025-11-22? | 79,368,872 | 79,368,872 |
cd1b1454b390e9f239e18d2d9da9d69ccb7799e1 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x6dca4075128f6e5b112d1f488e55ceb917a30e04dec55be08ae188be02bed339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? | 79,372,142 | 79,372,142 |
ec59fc7857939785fb8d4752867170e75c42c852 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x76ad4be80677b70e43e5017d384c2b97c6095449c4919a9d1180f13fcbdcce82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | over | 0 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23-more-markets | Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: O/U 2.5 | 79,404,509 | 79,404,509 |
876f35a0e6b3f3a1629644ce5582b517f487d9a0 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x2482fe5943f2fe60cd9cfda8efcd80dd76a3dbaf95798ef47b0e5a0e65a80837 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Cardiff City FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-... | arsenal | 0 | epl-ars-tot-2025-11-23-more-markets | Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) | 79,408,644 | 79,408,644 |
a2426e5f75b64071dba9e0772e9bac9b4b6e3534 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x8060c7b6ab0216970eb28e5509e19a9c06ba64b6e4940f316a559b7a185ea747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Cardiff City FC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-23? | 79,410,208 | 79,410,208 |
80967065587afc2aa3bb99e4fa05247a168d3498 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x393931eb887f76e3f8058cecb1e8b6e9e99f36a53379bea55d23a5776b3f4d8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | Event: efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 ... | no | 1 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? | 79,410,337 | 79,410,337 |
51cf3b8faee6ff4216116d73b2ed3444c6b80fcf | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x904797b19e0b02e674d50135d92e70380ea137081e39b91b384263dc05732cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05... | giants | 1 | nfl-nyg-det-2025-11-23 | Giants vs. Lions | 79,429,259 | 79,429,259 |
d4a32fb98ca1e79c4e1e41315d5ec4409ae7d000 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x230928508f5d9277227e83cfddbacc6537d7ae7d10f1b614baaa7b4f6255c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-olm-... | yes | 1 | ucl-olm1-new-2025-11-25 | Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,515,653 | 79,515,653 |
186c81493d2fb11b056cf6a23af7b867a2436b39 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x55a10130f3e6c980e2a179b74f344da2bc0cb53f358899c6eb660b97c27668fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-olm-ata-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ogc1-scf1... | no | 1 | ucl-aja-ben-2025-11-25 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-25? | 79,515,653 | 79,515,653 |
049f3a6d2242af6cbca9eec7bd1891c1e28e5dd9 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x5ec80ac167d7e137a4d5dc23fafeefa26ee7e9a90e775611482d31f63cf66fa4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-olm-ata-2025-11-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ogc1-scf1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-pl... | no | 1 | ucl-mnc-lev2-2025-11-25 | Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-25? | 79,515,653 | 79,515,653 |
41a16115b99d8c5445a31945c1c615574a87a4fc | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x781552f853e1a55a5d558d816ea8f86680a29f3e3ec02588727ca89e98c3b332 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-ogc1-scf1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-plz1-fen1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winner... | yes | 1 | ucl-nap-qar1-2025-11-25 | Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25? | 79,515,653 | 79,515,653 |
4974361a0055c75e53926889cf555491c2e1467d | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xa531f8f93f7843a414dab66b7e980983d1a96b85eb4f4ca2dae2ef72ab4bdc20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-06? | Event: uel-plz1-fen1-2025-11-06 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 11? | Event: what-day-wi... | no | 1 | elc-mid-cov-2025-11-25 | Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-25? | 79,515,653 | 79,515,653 |
623c058640a0b6541e91eca03ecb7a4284df5fe9 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xe2a4e3a627685cf33e917e3eff4dac2fad6c0ff4a9ecd940ab4b0fcfea47e362 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | Event: lol-worlds-2025-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 11? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-m... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-usg-2025-11-25 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? | 79,515,653 | 79,515,653 |
c4203f6da48096805b98887bb6d9268d7c35e967 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xf0b9d32c86599df667e29e71683636f6a03936af34aef8233af005f759e490a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the government shutdown end November 11? | Event: what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Latvia win on 2025-11-13? | Event: fif-mac-lat-2025-11-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lithuania win on 2025-11-13? | Event: ... | no | 1 | ucl-olm1-new-2025-11-25 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-25? | 79,515,653 | 79,515,653 |
b3bd267799f143f57962e9564645b5b6ac5afba6 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x031c6ef23aaff957f4fe839c9bea8f8543a9e2860231cc97b9b0fb1b874299aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | 77,718,065 | 77,718,065 |
6c27880cbf13dc09e7b964e045ebe94e43bd4c42 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x6345ca3715fe9df278d55a5f5dfad4126fdd83a835c6194e7151395fea5549fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target marke... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | 77,966,520 | 77,966,520 |
c0533966927abf08c79df3ae25bb5b2bbc7f3c93 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x49642f67b63f91d86498f4d747a096296c2937b74e1aa4211822a3b2aa719d91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6AM ET | 77,978,330 | 77,978,330 |
866a5f20c35e6f479006fc8d9189a99ccff716aa | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x98b9e5895e076695f4f577f2f9e453d77c717697ddc7e7ea397c2cbb303d8035 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET | 77,978,424 | 77,979,358 |
4fd1df222fa842d621bdef29cfa9443717d4f679 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x79683e76d0f3ebfa72c377c931f8044b55b687d6eed8ab1e58d0910d74ea5c1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1PM ET | 77,980,094 | 77,980,094 |
aae95c644e58d9d3403ce5c70564e2efdd4ea649 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x6c23a251be07c850257d881ffe720922b0685680793e26d310976147b4710dbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4AM ET | 78,008,775 | 78,008,775 |
dc68fc3140cfc7dd818bbf834bed2dc7c586eebf | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x870719b53cbfced4ea0f9e77d5a71863c5d3cad836ca727989c2d894129fb383 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5AM ET | 78,009,830 | 78,010,786 |
f80d1e4d4cf8f22d71ce2799cf2ff03719e5dc95 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x34524ca4d5c595bdb9ee5c34bbcff81b054f140e30f9892000658251064d8473 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0.000074 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6AM ET | 78,011,746 | 78,012,764 |
89eb89e998f672f2fa9918d8a32328e8463c486a | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x37a2d991aa3d4a1690fc6640bbfe1941d8a0929b549b66c8ad7cc28f2167f63c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8AM ET | 78,015,338 | 78,045,678 |
63c339390dd8577755c2e01cf38363a8be43f9f3 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2d5d5b44fabeb9c111996c9d4cfef9a267aff9a23d4804931dc735a05d0f0bf7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11AM ET | 78,020,528 | 78,020,528 |
c94f0e1149909f637fbf5fea6b55ea641d8da767 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x73c64c34e43ea61254266e8318f1e1a9b4c95a4c8a151914bfa84c12f34aa3cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12PM ET | 78,022,208 | 78,022,809 |
5abffda8a62755e4a9e98f4779727600648e4a4a | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x6712139bb2c540363f0915aa6757f14f1b49f9c5460008ac0f538a0167d4162b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2PM ET | 78,025,988 | 78,025,988 |
434f7435d1b8d8799070edef6e09063fbc817899 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xb96aaa093cf1a7981c98dd5c5ec6579eb5bfc8da79f4e2bbf8c3808cb7258d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | up | 0.000167 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET | 78,046,142 | 78,046,145 |
9e8e23dea130c6b4af48d221cbce5d7be401e797 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2698afc90a5d720a201f77ce533eced10532b696348102b93715d5226fed913f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2AM ET | 78,047,403 | 78,071,269 |
90d5da695c58873967f833dc36cba8cba6326e99 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5021744b3c38f1f951df1db36986cc5fffcd03604c6bd32ab1d42ecec009fd62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6AM ET | 78,054,781 | 78,054,781 |
9626588b9bfbc5a77c51b81cdbacfa039f56dfb8 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc2c46dbcc5f9df2def0dca456e1b35706b5b62702b21421a2b89646cb18de21b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | 78,056,551 | 78,056,551 |
217951357b595176767281c304805b81cae4447e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xbce79ede2f1a1a9760d5e9a3462a739519e417c4560ed7d142ebc688fe3d93ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET | 78,058,351 | 78,058,351 |
d0e4e755271675484b6c84a7035c2a3395b7b1a0 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xbefc90e6c285d71e290dd7e831b73ede7104da4c9342ae0eb2bb55b1394b8e90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET | 78,058,441 | 78,058,441 |
504cf3e4bbeb4239e81dbc374c2b7841606c5c7d | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x377fe5690fa355f93b55c3d5e7434d65091800f3eb5c43bddd776f80d1974146 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | 78,060,151 | 78,060,151 |
0be9677683b4216720bf754629eaa218759a2c47 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x82830b642c3c2fa283630efd11e774d72747f327c088691fab61963544f38854 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | 78,060,154 | 78,060,154 |
6660db0873a6d3ef7c58617a79086e170f5612cf | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x20b65e5c1fc54749204d021ff9e471efdb1fda0df285348b9d297c42a14d2f64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | 78,062,431 | 78,062,431 |
cb167effa52b2115ddb62df724c6d6a09dbbc19b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xd9ce0df56dad4b7738bf7307e29441c15b87439bccbd85b9faa08f020d9f1cd0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | 78,062,462 | 78,062,462 |
c48624592228dc9113b34ecf0c1152e528fa3a47 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x852a640a1181f7ffa4c01bc89df03b4713acade56d09a92248eb49122d128b7a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | 78,063,751 | 78,063,751 |
e376b712f3562c3785d9c9d6de69120c71535645 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc0e832dee88f756c677f77b7c651b2e5fdeacdf0db12a2c62db3442948d0dae8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | 78,063,841 | 78,063,841 |
916abaff017abe8b2b1eaa3f316076931be106e2 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xfc645d78acbce841d545baac78827ba7fef7632b5ad8170408738d8d902791a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | 78,069,151 | 78,069,151 |
04d66ef86726e838ce4412f81c4787b1e879b087 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0ca5e5e84ba01d0f04faf86136530ed7990b71a4c1f0c248d0b34d69e249afaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | 78,069,182 | 78,069,182 |
cccbbe4707a523479678aa437c30b0384ec70c8a | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xd40797bd792359ede63ba119d0720297ee6dc1638e29b027e81f7bf1e192a466 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | 78,069,185 | 78,069,185 |
6b135af8209c05639609f952954fd3afee0b8376 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5d60139cbef6d9618d1502a7c671fddd61310a83875a78db07b900c676f8cb00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | 78,069,241 | 78,069,241 |
eb256cd6b41fbf8af5e284c08d214e430b3f3ac0 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xda248fecca02520277e68144ad692c1d1626e5ef590021264d6497b0c094ecf9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | 78,071,071 | 78,071,071 |
421bedf02976d3fa7805971d0369ecfe6d1490ed | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x8691c771edf9cf5d614c59f5b51bcd5ba2523df9d638dab23123b1e496889e87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | 78,071,101 | 78,071,101 |
6521525853800e690a96cb833724f87154ecde9f | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xa66179e378f5117a0ec573340efbd50c7ab508d6d13c969332643caaff960879 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-15-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0.000096 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | 78,071,103 | 78,071,103 |
5e675f03238f19ff36447b8697ef8aa609c6631e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2422243476a1778071bf95d10c4da36b9af814b2f26d258fb67886bfcb80c649 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | 78,071,108 | 78,071,108 |
30769e16f4b8de51f0951e89cb9da26f1c9b5dc7 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xe8d5003d1d2eeb31ad9efbb8130c9bd85b2d19883fdbfc1047e69dff02e56757 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | 78,072,811 | 78,072,811 |
bba1c1e59ee25b4a5e5b7627ec53c3bdd4c78c82 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x7fe5ee6f88a1174dff2df7e1c0fa4a012b8ad36d4881f8b0eba25888a423b428 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | 78,072,814 | 78,072,814 |
fd29dd00bd73f243df2c2395743e8f10bec4edb9 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0f0c30a16546b87077c89962f33ee1f9a1963a86fb0da7e6513837a712c79d48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-21-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0.000199 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | 78,072,842 | 78,072,842 |
ab4bd45e4ba0c37fd687f26d3cbb658f4fd31d51 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5e29cea641b20672fc0f7cd8d4faefd6ec14552819f6d281b7cfef05c5a7c47e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-4am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | 78,073,201 | 78,073,201 |
9a483e30d9605dc1b2da49ca8bbe4524889856a8 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2d335cddda6dee96a409bc3d8edb5b4d180923d1153f462ce64c3572f6b49648 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.410549121689917e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | 78,074,551 | 78,074,551 |
af8da2077b67e77bc7b3ca7e8affe35e76967046 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x8e99693453b0285f682ceda6ef745c7a7bb0b17c04c5aef8166fe446ca15250c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 7.410549121689917e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | 78,074,611 | 78,074,611 |
5b08bf32e5f92e403872d14ec984618eef838baa | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xdaba4090ed25dde6ef2a660a567bfce1c68f3c424c67d3af6c2da56fb077ee61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | up | 0.000243 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | 78,074,641 | 78,074,641 |
a0d145d95945a8372d9a8eb60dd13de6a3659220 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xe304ab820947907c588f68c47156bc1188cb0765711c253ae2dc0154cfbbf6cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octo... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | 78,074,672 | 78,074,672 |
e1734dbd61e341fc370a517c8ad425748f09e368 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xeecb4e80f64d135d5f76cfc9af8e48783f6d5ec0ad78b04f096cc3eb1804543d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | 78,076,351 | 78,076,351 |
6bf1acccfec1f6d61d3fdab5db6d3025c8c616fa | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x84c5b755469d87b3a694b2b23ffcf85315a2225a4ebb5703911d8db3bc506e3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-22-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00016682782688152384
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | 78,076,354 | 78,076,354 |
8d8b50ff5a3fefa2ce00a222b1b055addec75279 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0f17a29c104756f85f05c0f309a6e344b17ecba196788b7c218174c852800790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-1am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00016682782688152384
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up o... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | 78,076,384 | 78,076,384 |
9bd676517fa906c727d3c3641556293b6fdac019 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xf7b1b5413f1fab848510696843b468e684a47b797b8b67e538b60593cb20230e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-2am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | 78,076,771 | 78,076,771 |
05b3156f00f30241302ab68f97fa845b6830684d | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x829eb80fe8ffbc7c392a87d4d0cb3950f97684c917b13fa6914c02f55e21993e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-6am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | 78,078,151 | 78,078,151 |
92f816d87ffefb0ebce07db59ec44310877a4cdc | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x8704e57d6b6bdcf78ca3805d32e3527bf6819cf393c10abd3ddb3657b18249fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | 78,078,331 | 78,078,331 |
b2bbaf0d8b37fcd4d51cf35864a86e3b47e23384 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xb26a7afa6488906300c70aaf831093e11f6a5b5c1caedefffe8d0cca5b807424 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | 78,078,451 | 78,078,451 |
a944de2f561c984c9e10cf0d2390c78c2383199b | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xe5f776b5f7ab6d9dff2738174d81a2cc78ba3cd042e8fe40cfb5f8164881357d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Octob... | down | 0.000327 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | 78,079,951 | 78,079,951 |
ee13f838f015408622aa1d262437fde5765cf28e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x0269bb3ccdba848205858ad190ae8bc6ac127d1a741d3e6b05423502aad0d08d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | 78,079,981 | 78,079,981 |
8a953332f53514d4ac6727b6cb17afe3922e43a8 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x91c93c2075e58449cd6b3223523eb0bc37eaa8a61390a06e1efb45c6c16845c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Oct... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | 78,080,013 | 78,080,013 |
c5936c63e5c2e5fb3e283a8de349e47229bc8ab8 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x4992b03d5f71757f34735cfaa9671e06dc357b357ddfddf11dbf98fd52bb4e80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Oc... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 8PM ET | 78,080,461 | 78,080,461 |
39733dedc4498e62732ecea29a50b2edf5c084e5 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xf786d0c69cf96a8efb4af6fa02a08663844c2a274103c1a852c7d3bc280b7d45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - O... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | 78,083,553 | 78,083,553 |
bdb98cf569191527e219bd2cda153442e93cd978 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x271bb281fffe426b41233e397430161d4dd8d73d0790f95d4f5db67e7235c2e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - Oct... | down | 0.000172 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | 78,083,583 | 78,083,583 |
026170e58d434a2e5f005e9c904aca19c2288503 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2a0118c5258cec0c85a60d5123ac0d39d7d15c48846a6db3d80f7be9a774dad1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Octob... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | 78,083,643 | 78,083,643 |
d16a652453bd1139a8630c4d3c042d744ed67933 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc02e4e7ec4c852e025f4ac705808d5ccff07fab494ec9050332549d73697767e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-10pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 10PM ET | 78,085,261 | 78,085,261 |
c45164746b2d757a71d79c0d6f5950b1c4f212ce | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x7c43be9ca517fcfa32362d9e94df6ac7a58525e23f9118cbe4f3b4a86ff8f721 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2P... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | 78,085,351 | 78,085,351 |
d1133409efc9fd4632fa3c70a58a716393d76068 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x9b2cf4c36dd7ab2a6caff4b0cab7346dd104dec3661658260eb68bac2bc9da77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 3PM... | up | 0.000162 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | 78,085,354 | 78,085,354 |
72d699f5f9166b7b612340bbe163de69a0b72215 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x379c5c199faf89e419d52c713514b9638ba8771e22df9b0ca3ae4fc6a7badc5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | XRP Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | 78,085,384 | 78,085,384 |
54f8f1310b1a02f606d8db1464a452adb07f62f1 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x5cf20b24c019e39e377b652f1bc0c31a9fbaad8f6b7c08ddca9533bff21b53c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-23-11pm-et | Solana Up or Down - October 23, 11PM ET | 78,085,441 | 78,085,441 |
cb67adbeb03ad16a3ecf0a4e82f7f59c37d45d19 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x9761a12c09281905d93fe5286f7e454419a2ae9cfcb184500839c6c32c71f1a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.623426014168214e-05
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | 78,087,181 | 78,087,181 |
dae46c47bc36d3a0735fbe1b8065aecd78c3b383 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x903b19e072afa768237f5b43ea55fe02bc81fec02e465f3fab16a3052bfca7b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 9.623426014168214e-05
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | 78,087,184 | 78,087,184 |
4dee19f9418669e3328915f25432e178475470b2 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc1729dd8ce4305e610d6c922eb52f10741fc4ed7ac14e2dbf1d1b8a4826296f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - Octobe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | 78,087,187 | 78,087,187 |
e6fe8c5bfe9f7606f6f1ea868c6a9d35fb34b45a | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xc8bc38f06d60975db4944c6d44a8bde57a51fbbd8b63796fcbcfb6ae41ac9ea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-12am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12AM ET | 78,087,991 | 78,087,991 |
47c0253f29a15f04eeff5657006aac64d68f89d8 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x88366728a32ea218630876ad15d5f4e494e494ce75a527db208a0455310a8d44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00019878950941499624
3. Question: Solana Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | 78,088,951 | 78,088,951 |
efbb065ac6e2bbc550694bf4a6c6387f5d7c8343 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x9822017741c1d45710b3b2a75400dd7957b09b518a43aa17adc493ba1eaaca0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.00019878950941499624
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - Oct... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | 78,089,221 | 78,089,221 |
47b56051b399075625bbfe56d0cd26e3bdbe7185 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xf01883f64011211b6f76a4f576992e9d7870b336c4f0b22cd3946ba0f2850de5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 4PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 5PM E... | down | 0.000115 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-1am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1AM ET | 78,089,731 | 78,089,731 |
864b86f5bf715a10474b1d14ed0c7624d3c9608c | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x419e04e164c79a171fe8ff2a8d369b9311344c977e2cf1257fb1ffb4b18e7f49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5P... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | 78,090,751 | 78,090,751 |
48bbdb2d4e69b47bdcaa310b33a00e57e249b48e | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xec5399f3169da9f7ba48956a38895b1d7a55037411ab3bc1abb31661dfa47e73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00024250879625765267
3. Question: Solana Up ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | 78,090,756 | 78,090,756 |
f16d2c2a903a1ef8913d41f605a2d0e3698faaad | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xceebee6e1ace025dee51c15868dab349a582ff7ac8932e911c2a34f8dc964804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.00024250879625765267
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or D... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | 78,091,351 | 78,091,351 |
16c05e1eac7a31fe1902dd098c686b3f911a76d7 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xeba751c364a1ff4b5fc4eb95c1c283654eef3aaa9fc6137064b1ae2fc4887e5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23,... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-2am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 2AM ET | 78,091,801 | 78,091,801 |
d28c2710f303e0afc4b7e259f37d481ed75e4a75 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xbdac07dfbefef613fc2a3b0facd21936cd5c0decf886960191d0faad1634e858 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | 78,092,551 | 78,092,551 |
cf0f5a27cbf4e21c9cc8900b45dc5bfd82d37c28 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0xf1916d77db1d198c540e55f1cb7461681b480cc64db5d1712096519f0f13711d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23... | down | 0.000206 | ethereum-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | 78,092,581 | 78,092,581 |
a1b2363df26be1cf3da37c98c699c9733878f88a | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x2b21059c333df192885606a213072deaf7330cc2258185374f6cc4718350699c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ... | down | 0.000136 | solana-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | Solana Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | 78,092,588 | 78,092,588 |
d1a41eec16d231520b7dc9f653322b7f80079163 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x3cf775dd2a5f9766291b70af02e4a9472843b6b98ebb05eb4a401b320bb7217a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET |... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 3AM ET | 78,092,941 | 78,092,941 |
302bb94acf88eaed74bc8d4b01b1593c4052fa08 | 0x12e543d34f4421d24ae8da14982d14e328f6bc51 | 0x43aa8bb966f01c72ed677b7836533d9d7c1dcdd23c13f16a896e143ec27a2ad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - October 23, 7PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-october-23-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7PM E... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-october-24-4am-et | XRP Up or Down - October 24, 4AM ET | 78,094,411 | 78,094,411 |
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