sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3190cfa8408f08b1fa6c66c8d0168c0ad390070a | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x2be736ecf65fa3a0a0ac15c9795a0d52bb40c4ffbb242cb4baa4ab98b89b9654 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ips-2025-04-02 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-02? | 69,858,093 | 69,858,093 |
4d43c41e984e56fb23ac0fc18681b0023520dbcf | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x2e2881cb38535533865a47328b5d5b35eadec196381990b94ef8e9331b5176f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-ars-2025-04-05 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-05? | 70,794,334 | 70,794,334 |
2aa33a799d3111be24c0df1b00a09667b63bde73 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xfd0a6df409cf78b0b06460e7a168130dab5305686989fad84af8c219480111f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-mun-2025-08-24 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24? | 75,646,893 | 75,646,893 |
c940363f3640721d028c983f4bdfe7c7552b76af | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x4adea7e46cd2298f1d447a4d38ffd0145d34d5639ee18206f8ef3e7134f756ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? | 75,646,894 | 75,646,894 |
7fa494482efaf391c49b4983a40bbab99b588dd6 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x612963db2910e36d4ee27cc942896495176a6f760a17b611c013e38b3b01b5db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-august-17-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4600 on August 17 at 5PM ET? | 75,646,896 | 75,646,896 |
fc7d74e49c59cce09180d97500921b37c776647a | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x16431ff8b4ecc554845702eb77248cd637520dd3240bb2750d8b0a201690a3cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31? | 76,160,731 | 76,160,731 |
afaae019761e0d44a705530e97021c31c5b74d4b | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x218f7e2ee10dde16a828ab0cb9b809ebd2471ea54c687ceaced14c4eec9a7ffb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2025-08-31 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31? | 76,160,731 | 76,160,731 |
dd2ed091c8cc99d18f4faf7662adfcfcb1c0b8c0 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xd105f8e1258c052369b133f156fe3feb6733a7b13dff135833cb3afee1146801 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | con-bol-bra-2025-09-09 | Will Brazil win on 2025-09-09? | 76,275,744 | 76,275,744 |
105e79cf1ec09274cb46dd6199aa8f5d83eb9542 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xa95bda98964f533dafdeee3ad0788cffaf3b1f12ce07bfa37265c940e30696ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | fl1-lyo-ang-2025-09-19 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-09-19? | 76,666,194 | 76,666,194 |
7dcf3215baaaeabb8f04e4114726170d1e878c83 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x1967162a4525f03e2c0da0160fddedf5b42d47c0637995aa2f6eafcd890c8f8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | uel-nic-rom-2025-09-24 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24? | 76,870,174 | 76,870,174 |
04976c2eac3d3e97f5a7ee834a747df9e08b8769 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x7eb8a53fcfff7c0b0d925e00f6f849452144a1b32b2f26029ecda502cfe74eb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Atalanta? | Event: ucl-shakhtar-donetsk-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end ... | yes | 1 | uel-rbs-por-2025-09-25 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? | 76,908,882 | 76,908,882 |
7a473f20154bbb0f53427c55743615fe23cf30c8 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | ... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 76,908,882 | 76,908,882 |
5b6da207ae8dbe522813a03abe349c3851fee035 | 0x127abfef0687758baadf496e320e8140db4bca3c | 0x2a466b96d679bc94db4338f8b0c21aaf640cd5cdffb1908762861bf81f0929c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between RB Leipzig and Juventus end in a draw? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-juventus | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-02? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | lal-bar-rso-2025-09-28 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? | 77,021,842 | 77,021,842 |
3583a9a75affab139b25a3e816318403bb441387 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x2af28e43bfda7c64755cde0d7ac816336d38c6a59967cffdc815aa62c8df3336 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | 75,040,900 | 75,040,900 |
50bcd8037a0b7b818fe691c0e92f96b753cd6bb0 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x8077bad2e3031435b6e825ece5c87e06c6452c8d7e549409b45964e23a7bd226 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10?
Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | 75,044,937 | 75,044,937 |
be3dc4e24a551ec52d51713dc3901aebe556eb38 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xa89aca0a88f425a59e5ac33f1e5a62c14c72396c1bc1b8183838c9c9ec6fcd80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on August 10? | 75,044,972 | 75,044,972 |
232ee4bdf14895c4754715a56d33bba431032573 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xd9c17941adebb8ea0e207be05f9199037f94ecf867914c1e5ed3296b5e8356af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on August 10? | 75,045,004 | 75,045,004 |
ea63730c0ab079ee252e8f65f7ba58673b3feaef | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x787bed1be59ab9cba9a2f10bc5458e982e1f1772c095d58566fcba931355bf23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on August 10? | 75,045,522 | 75,045,522 |
481fa37923ae2e39beb4e064ed74fde4376ed736 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xc5544918fb98de6369ecde251528b40b2cb99c359a8fe5ad0dbb668cb379b85e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 10? | 75,053,687 | 75,053,687 |
658f63693753b5fd038177498bb907f965df88f4 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xa2bc95b4129004f0dfcf16c7ce530c3d8d3e4af629eef0924529bdce88efca7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on August 10? | 75,056,148 | 75,056,148 |
dee0903593a4eb4c84b0f615272d3928b26318c1 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x367601efa1f370d90d5007f45bd82164e08786ced066d1d70c0cd0cd5ed932d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on August 10? | 75,056,164 | 75,056,164 |
e0edaa50182de56ea1538cd949dbf1bfbc727766 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xadc9cd40be460450515ce4ed5494dcf21f30fff10e70f200a06376b182c24ae0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be 87°F or higher on August 10? | 75,056,193 | 75,056,193 |
c6b04c3f504df2f80a1e219895ad06b8f1b9691f | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xe85bc42dec7e2b309c9fe762c507d891aa9f0543db5f4459afc454eac38afa79 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on August 10? | 75,066,716 | 75,066,716 |
8a426ea687d51d3c87e9a1eeb2397fa331142cd3 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xaae1d0464fcc97b1af5923c0a9c2f43cf068b807fd2f8aa32ee25b7406d90b6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 11? | 75,084,677 | 75,084,677 |
a0b5cfa90fe722ca210d81d72556bf3f7b1a9c1b | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x1fc82d1ab4f55b33148fff1ee058f2e971b2e71893f6dbed46d225b8188f8fb6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 11? | 75,085,422 | 75,085,422 |
1da01265df029d0ad6d1f4c47288a744784aa465 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xaa331b9efeefe89afd785e2aeea524f8f206c41a1a01db58fe634e56f6bd9636 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15? | 75,100,228 | 75,100,228 |
1f7266ce04ad7b808edc11f5804b1d332a222299 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x8673764ea8ad71d971c519067ab0010b9be65d04c2fa204b0687920a0ca0d241 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15-brackets-of-30 | Will Elon tweet 270–299 times August 8–August 15? | 75,116,608 | 75,116,608 |
0565113e2719a0b338629ec68f14d0fdabca64fd | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xe014e4615ba98a1ffe940785009d8c257ffb893e05a3dc54db0676dec128a960 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15? | 75,116,612 | 75,116,612 |
1f26defb8ee8e16b4e39231635bd594dd5114598 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x1e0e6169afba173f863e7a6af2e94983a4c888178ba629012d676760cc6c1e10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15? | 75,116,615 | 75,116,615 |
9040206e2b1b11fd3ec7db19621487e153c863db | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x7d3e64478365d7e594578615d16f60df5a3ec9aa413b811014eab2139ac88995 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15? | 75,165,012 | 75,165,012 |
add0cbc2c0f3306f196f2c4a0e5db3b17e57c5d7 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xd389d0edc3b119ac3f011ec56e4600024f79725c67d95c8870e0e7a4e3c745af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 305–319 times August 8–August 15? | 75,165,015 | 75,165,015 |
e9d3c11266611e316046db9566dac14e1ce3e0ec | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x38e30265ebcd9820f4138da8c613b8af62ad0ef9d0105be5bfa34c1a64fec170 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 13? | 75,195,358 | 75,195,358 |
358f366296fc57b06fb6f9f9fbf23602be20479f | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x0bf32236c4a05b509969cd0d2e3b1b8fd979fd49d22ba1ee45219e76d1bcff6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-august-13 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 13? | 75,195,363 | 75,195,363 |
88e32cddb0238c66cafebc75841478d0c888ee3f | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0x6e123d00182aaf6e95ba0e64dd9ddbfe00a71d8a92d80475b5c180ff4a5b2ed8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | yes | 1 | solana-price-on-august-13 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on August 13? | 75,195,391 | 75,195,391 |
244e5404a014fe3348dd1909358eddd6f52635f5 | 0x129b11b853344fc91f4e48f03ee955e865cacb84 | 0xb5651902f679d2307323444dbbfe9b73363bcf2f9225474ec07a1c3e5c541575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-august-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on August 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-august-... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-8-15 | Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15? | 75,230,145 | 75,230,145 |
69542e99eef5932c1b485dcab3d69036acc0a8a9 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x229f4a3b7a0ad7d61f384f951b18320f1f6c1ae978978dfcdeabd48d9fbd29b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10?
Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.16207 | arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | 77,591,274 | 77,591,274 |
1d8a8a576c1a084d060fda9ace1dc725545bf05e | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xab54e0e177d60a542c1276973ceb7c42af530ea0fe78bbe3c7953714eb87d1a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
Target market:
Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10?
Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict J... | no | 1 | uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | 77,591,314 | 77,591,314 |
03a84dd67f014d985cd6ac800d8aeda708d2685e | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x0e766687ac8959187ca57bc13c48d0d4f51810965c8e37d5b9dc83d0ecb8071b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12?
E... | no | 1 | caf-bur-eth-2025-10-12 | Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | 77,613,658 | 77,613,658 |
1aaa871c1a8265b44c8749bcb1c415ed12ccea35 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x1963a7d39ab330b84526e254906ff060f8a9d59bc1d6d9a932e04c55f0cb0595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | uef-den-grc-2025-10-12 | Will Denmark vs. Greece end in a draw? | 77,613,664 | 77,613,664 |
5ae7e28cc7a425058b5df1d48dcf95c60499f058 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xbe85b199ac92c8f1215826612cac7a0c2c3ae2b6897b310d2341170339ce09b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | uef-far-cze-2025-10-12 | Will Faroe Islands vs. Czechia end in a draw? | 77,613,670 | 77,613,670 |
0965ebc16f8bd44b11b71642218c72fe8aaaec36 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xe21887af62c2297c869cbf3d3a5e1ede151e599d91d58f80bde8bc86e88613ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | uef-den-grc-2025-10-12 | Will Denmark win on 2025-10-12? | 77,613,731 | 77,613,731 |
c16de115aea8a9ef989228778ce5684aff7cd25a | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xf2a6e28bebff7f035d750430da4f0972f33aa3eee1b37a564314a8bd2bd893cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? | 77,613,744 | 77,613,744 |
ead901cd5830a311434501c032ed7314830db9ee | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x1f2b1d2cbbd09e4118a370fd9a39b6ee60f85369b4abc62120aaee3ab3c4d5d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | uef-far-cze-2025-10-12 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-12? | 77,613,755 | 77,613,755 |
b35082de359ddf91e55e2d85904595772b2cbb7f | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xe1150740a6347712c047dc930b929c5ce10fe6b50fe1b8a438fcce3aa61de179 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | yes | 1 | arg-slo-sms-2025-10-10 | Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA San Martín de San Juan end in a draw? | 77,613,768 | 77,613,768 |
6757712a929551d67ebdb310e7eca36a38e067e9 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xb36e8b86cfb5bd0ff8bc6f7d849f48c085ec24600c436d05606ffdeca606c70f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 0.705266 | efa-wor1-fgr-2025-10-13 | Will Worthing FC win on 2025-10-13? | 77,653,927 | 77,653,927 |
acac16525d270743a6f99796effc76283e02ba4c | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xa565e148bfe6194f07b4f00c0ff922ee74836a27e36de009aa420a67d3881f23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Will Sweden vs. Kosovo end in a draw? | 77,653,933 | 77,653,933 |
8210934e49a8c08d448a963afd2cc2951c4cd956 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xdbb4051ccbc31c22fbdf091105861707f6446d1be36ca8769c2503370f6b099d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | yes | 0.08177 | caf-stp-mal-2025-10-13 | Will São Tomé e Príncipe win on 2025-10-13? | 77,653,939 | 77,653,939 |
ac62effeb810815c8c937f47a146ffb7bc8d9fd8 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x3dddcd8ecb236e845bfc032fbae6a13892422b8e89fd134d005530a783f74ad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | yes | 0.362397 | caf-stp-mal-2025-10-13 | Will São Tomé e Príncipe vs. Malawi end in a draw? | 77,653,945 | 77,653,945 |
38d8f863a44f827391da3d373fd30d64707ed01f | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x694ebab565484f69546d6018fcc73807192da18ac4ffe0e6f7efa1d613b8047a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | efa-wor1-fgr-2025-10-13 | Will Worthing FC vs. Forest Green Rovers FC end in a draw? | 77,653,951 | 77,653,951 |
819f0342dbb2352705f47a4aaaa893c2d59830a1 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x81e3d101c9e2615382249e34533c72ff78991599dff8a67bfb925e55e437f32e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | uef-swe-kvx-2025-10-13 | Will Sweden win on 2025-10-13? | 77,653,957 | 77,653,957 |
3c1f3ce6c218cb1093a8d9615361ed7573f472ef | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xd147cf5f4f646a867f5e460264cee67d98e2b6ca5d4f886cc8eede64908d8eea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | efa-wor1-fgr-2025-10-13 | Will Forest Green Rovers FC win on 2025-10-13? | 77,654,017 | 77,654,017 |
39013cc2d416d773b6cbfd9ceaf0042c59d26008 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x5332b269dc5cd6f35a25f39d1ba7b2d7792d39e39572498b89b2ab4af9a14aea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | uef-ukr-aze-2025-10-13 | Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13? | 77,654,024 | 77,654,024 |
1cc7a4f8a909eb5348be3baa84aa01e0c1decbfa | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x40196a7dc2cfca23905a961565d4c4945389a72b187a44c7889d04c4bd6686a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | yes | 1 | caf-stp-mal-2025-10-13 | Will Malawi win on 2025-10-13? | 77,654,028 | 77,654,028 |
16ddabb4c7ade003d5d0ed97a0799456d9dbbcd0 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x8e353a7e0226c6e94d8087a6aacb10eac3e102a5f58c2e403764a48a80d156df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 0.112517 | bra-csc-bot-2025-10-19 | Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-19? | 78,003,271 | 78,003,271 |
227c0e76be0db320dfea11cbddba904455a7bac4 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x8b57a88cbdde4e93c286e09d46981cd43ced9fa7f7bf2c06cee9501a433bdfa7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | bra-mir-sao-2025-10-19 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-19? | 78,003,277 | 78,003,277 |
b58a011c5e779760f4c833418222edc65ad10550 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0xee81fa674b536eb6b4ab07ecc7cdec3d67c47cc458d4f718beba73286e389253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | no | 1 | bra-csc-bot-2025-10-19 | Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? | 78,003,289 | 78,003,289 |
0db9fdcd61a49fe68abae3e946196b50713b0e40 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x709d6ab357ea8c9a66569eaaf29b4fda71ec4dd3680a8a77fe50d9d01786e95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | yes | 1 | bra-csc-bot-2025-10-19 | Will Ceará SC win on 2025-10-19? | 78,003,302 | 78,003,302 |
745e07da68b699e391d39ea7bc48070834903690 | 0x12a7836a991fd494783029b57cb1e09105aa1bdc | 0x2dbb00715c0e2e2ea354b860e9b1a881502c5656a67c64c58a09264361710a47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10? | Event: arg-new-tig-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.16207017024934037
2. Question: Will Slovenia win on 2025-10-10? | Event: uef-kvx-slv-2025-10-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ethiopia win on 2025-10-12? | Event: caf-b... | yes | 1 | bra-bah-gre-2025-10-19 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-19? | 78,003,305 | 78,003,305 |
0bfc9105f2237dbd1310f6994b0e9c29bd4280e6 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x169c45ac4782466e7cf8c4716fe6e12b1a96d3ac126cd350cb1a2b17be60dc2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | 72,081,814 | 72,081,814 |
784098db09fc560a66b5e06d0196e434e8906580 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x2e50c4d6442cd50e353dc2e54c0578d3437c8aed2ec24e633d6f18b3f5ca897f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30
... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | 72,438,434 | 72,438,434 |
dfb0829a2692fcc8c69d9f2253895cc614c8069b | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x7144850a23cd7582df6bb1a68d32b7978c6838b73bc026d06a387e248c4b9e6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on July 2? | 73,521,717 | 73,521,717 |
e80578a2689df7c6ab69bf862fe236481d88f9d5 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xed7379c72f5abf056235b27124730ea21b1ee5ab16c7c4f2f6e858754cd84c8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 2? | 73,521,717 | 73,521,717 |
8fc4759d8e9776d9656e1a5c76be9a3888d5d3e0 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xf1b08fae4ff486474f65a9c33ae08f006b438cf283a40eeecf806d183840b3bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on July 2? | 73,521,933 | 73,521,933 |
a79104e67328de09105799f9c03ebcdcf0af8e83 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xe99232e2247d8075714bb9c75f9c385180102dad346462413c3ea5585474ca9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-2 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 2? | 73,531,801 | 73,531,801 |
de7bfd97f69553c56dfcf70c2bb21282019179b3 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x97186bf38e6907752ce2fe9254c344c4d99294ab2bdabfc2996c1cee05dee32e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-3-798 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 3? | 73,556,176 | 73,556,176 |
2c24d87e07c8ba0a94a5c022a300a128b63932d2 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xf574c8c890a7a297bb88baaf7630d14072b1cef4a04e260a7d805b4ded0bf531 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-3-887 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 93-94°F on July 3? | 73,560,819 | 73,560,819 |
b464baaff9373bfcb6b6f20a015970cf618b40e7 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x4d23bc6f4f42bed00f5ab857dbd517f26d384b18d6a2ed6c704aa59c027f2806 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-4 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 4? | 73,600,993 | 73,600,993 |
c05cac02718bbd0ccf0beca0a4f536246a5a05b4 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xc4dab8b97cf1083456c915a917b0b3c4b0673fe661ae468b874a2ccdb7b7eddd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-5 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5? | 73,641,465 | 73,641,465 |
c19ac43122a683c78c03d7d1cf8e2b454b01ccaf | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x7f55dafea8796fab9c1d89c7ad003ac2865ebef762f851820663b4c67062aa46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-6 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 6? | 73,686,801 | 73,686,801 |
0c8bcf8a38a7d6d32449faa57706ea9f0ce16154 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x1591ab7ea731e7befdaf13a9be68b2eae2134e7faca0bc6b0d156abcd4036040 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-7-259 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 7? | 73,730,437 | 73,730,437 |
352c27e6ceaf767017558b8ca3a1714e50f41308 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xe96bf0a82a91caa95e34723fe14c455a3968cbf1295a95110cda09e5ca4582af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 0.999049 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on July 10? | 73,842,944 | 73,842,944 |
befc493d0926561775d3fdf3e7f2e689b23b7417 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x7a55007f3bbc0ac5a12736ba3b38da6195f4b2611d73966da319ced661d9032d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 10? | 73,842,945 | 73,842,945 |
04fd3e3443e962d66fde5256e6d119e4c112d60a | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x24e24e7e789cacad0adea6178cd4fbd672b86ddb1c90b229dd7c796010d25ebc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 0.994285 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on July 10? | 73,843,311 | 73,843,311 |
eaecdd06446c639944a7f64b62a9aa38f94b0717 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xcc986093e5e6bdaeb69c280336e9b7f90016950e2371806d53458da937a4c4cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on July 11? | 73,844,908 | 73,844,908 |
85b1ebde7840dd34bdc9965a452b53b841adf31e | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x7417c602e2005512240007f6e689957c68d35b1dc49619fa7b9031be53e16451 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on July 11? | 73,865,918 | 73,865,918 |
b712f9322cac20771062a482e0e1bf3ab010c044 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x9ed94b44116f17fa985e060c0dcb5ff83283b1e77856c5e5660553a0e9a6bb52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or below on July 11? | 73,866,095 | 73,866,095 |
6997a1c54a92513a82c674bb839bec68e2000b08 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x00e11b097d9ee1d46d8210eb9e29ef1c887654f362c54e3d45ae985d7d2b1c27 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on July 11? | 73,884,276 | 73,884,276 |
f3759cfecdf1bb3e3f008552ffa6a67e60c49396 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x5c39ab6a38d6e237b51e7709264dd97f4889f9db3f9ecf957e8ad80a491fc434 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on July 11? | 73,884,276 | 73,884,276 |
92f5e34f6cd524a770634b158fad1e697bd31696 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x6fffb6699a6f407532fa67bcb6c839ef79f47965324ba4bf3f85e70cd963c5a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on July 11? | 73,884,276 | 73,884,276 |
abb014b7ce74dca5a7b2099cfbf551947b5a4db4 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xcff4a137ab3f4ae8931dbd506506ef4ff0ba53e0c50d5fe1749e3a6275c9eaed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-11 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on July 11? | 73,884,276 | 73,884,276 |
4f0d029be73f823fec9946bd22c2ff9c67bda97f | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0x4b45c66fd221a670c127df760a05c77e3cf6003f65f7602c60ff3d78359c4bc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on July 12? | 73,904,291 | 73,904,291 |
3884f3a5277ed3b9854ea4b003ac03aa78ba5c05 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xe3dd6b613f0696112e735b87a8e2dfbe2b044b3a3dc17a8683d046c8ce863878 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-12 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 86-87°F on July 12? | 73,904,291 | 73,904,291 |
9d38a136992a7783efd509193f1c32f3dd1d8153 | 0x12c36e9dafe4fb336d53bcfb85f778b147d31ba8 | 0xf059aa4442e4ffbb3c05408922472c58e37da09f4d3231cec9755b1ba580f7c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 68–69°F on May 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-28 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on May 30? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-may-30 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on July 12? | 73,904,291 | 73,904,291 |
cfd7fd58830732b6cfa91aa45b062744cc398bf3 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x7d7d53e61458bf5a25ae58ad7a33b05feac30e89e7d3267e5d82114cab7bc8bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025?
Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | 78,349,709 | 78,349,709 |
a749a219597e42dad1df99ae8c2f53640b9b1273 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xc38f9afaa3f23299098495e585751dd889f6df881b128ad1f32f63885c4b8ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29?
Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29
Predict the user'... | yes | 1 | fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | 78,364,774 | 78,364,774 |
2753b06139dad14d108f857a10513ed836d07897 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x31773be0755521b76b0498c4779573c03af5278526b978ddf0c97bbf31fd21b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Will Cardiff City FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,364,822 | 78,364,822 |
01adb3a356dd1d0eba62277621cd30e1e90ae9c2 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x0930e7d1051accbd9b9ff7ed9cc30c146a18d59d6f91669d7e151bc51f11048b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | efl-car-wre-2025-10-28 | Will Wrexham AFC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,365,295 | 78,365,295 |
f1c565ede16e37b8d2223b45a80e3bb32d855e4f | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xac244f7004fde31d2f64c84f4bf8d97d7f077b5bc8a7ee9bc383776d8775b9af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-05? | 78,652,904 | 78,652,904 |
187fec896dc173854c9371ec72af3687d4c98200 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xd441bd6fbe29196d13db20819e0c5d62e05a82620e58e080c835e221fdb8e249 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-vil-2025-11-05 | Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? | 78,652,904 | 78,652,904 |
744e3ef2e74fa3bdf582674106d7742b81ca62a0 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xd84c31f4db1074287919c383d9cc526b19bc0274276af7bb1a5a427c6a061aa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? | 78,652,904 | 78,652,904 |
c0491933ffeee67325f57608ba8887d0b79f6bce | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xe7b7175a155fa5441088b9b31c4bf113fc2ee194aaad3b1f2293ad8a7cd2d9ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ucl-olm-ata-2025-11-05 | Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? | 78,652,904 | 78,652,904 |
f4c98d04e943a93a92c30c9f2e66e6adcf3eb865 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x3050563c5b3a1996bde67a19e18faffa77323d43dc0625989ac4297b9e4b1406 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | uel-ogc1-scf1-2025-11-06 | Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06? | 78,696,249 | 78,696,249 |
93454b1577bc76b3c57bb5d9cd4b372d25170bff | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x735006365eafa4a8902a93a8dae86ee6b61b750ea7a7c737d4053c1e83901a8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | uel-plz1-fen1-2025-11-06 | Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-06? | 78,696,249 | 78,696,249 |
0677b718ed1f296c511b5b7eb8ff52dac44a768e | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xa201124f1421c39673f834dc55f82560d3b7734772254f9e72fcb35fe441d41f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | lol-worlds-2025-winner | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | 78,801,810 | 78,801,810 |
8286a842789ce843cee08869fd319be8b2051611 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xb05b878b0065451177cd879ae2888aff62ccb9fbc245b6793603f92b510919cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | what-day-will-the-government-shutdown-end | Will the government shutdown end November 11? | 78,926,519 | 78,926,519 |
7e12845c6782078792a4fcf997349e4ba5fcaaf4 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x685312b33080f82278e828b141d8eefc52cd8ea7212ae776a477db45313bdf7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | fif-mac-lat-2025-11-13 | Will Latvia win on 2025-11-13? | 78,998,710 | 78,998,710 |
565a08b7d4589d86be0d1d114c86c54d35d09a6e | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xc615359033923440426ad95df303c93eeb76c6c1a7579e3befcd7b7b42e11378 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | fif-lit-isr-2025-11-13 | Will Lithuania win on 2025-11-13? | 78,998,710 | 78,998,710 |
3fd68cfd1c5ab3f19accabd0a323bd6967756b3a | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xc82455eec7b1c7917a151069cc6be2c5277168d24b313c739ad094e8877c0041 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | fif-lit-isr-2025-11-13 | Will Israel win on 2025-11-13? | 78,998,710 | 78,998,710 |
797f718950c283168e872bae41377959956cce9e | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0x74f32a06daf1c921cd83ae48e0897a629db7f7cabd36c9328b007586005a4a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | uef-ita-nor-2025-11-16 | Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? | 79,126,256 | 79,126,256 |
6f749f96a312d74bdfb0da73fbe2cf7b85780201 | 0x12d9a4302be53dd8c9f13aabfbdf3518f1c001bb | 0xdf052be2015adefa70c7761d69b7fc7da4fd4879cd96702a406363c86e39e826 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October 30, 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-on-thursday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-lor-psg-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | uef-ser-lat-2025-11-16 | Will Serbia win on 2025-11-16? | 79,126,280 | 79,126,280 |
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