sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
c54a26e697e566d0e1f764fca78d7dc0616a28e2 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x276d64083961711c3fee466140c9cbed4cdec23ffdb2facd7f3c6f00282ab535 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-lil-2025-08-17 | Will Lille OSC win on 2025-08-17? | 75,566,159 | 75,566,159 |
b806b48a38488c8223be2bf09ff40fadce16e2b4 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x29af36a12f42fa752b648a3b452e8e067bd77889c96db8fab680011311835dea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | length-of-the-next-mrbeast-video | Will the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min? | 75,566,159 | 75,566,159 |
248265344c6c74283e3effdcabf5cda8df3cdf3f | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x7ad8c949eaa5f1f060db075076d519e4f33aaac9e0b1ec30b9790851eab750d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | no | 1 | fl1-sbr-lil-2025-08-17 | Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? | 75,566,159 | 75,566,159 |
d3898e1a1926abc92e7792a0503111a705351060 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xa5b2c13483e6c53249e455cddd962f988b0f07227d998368254f299538646b59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Will Manchester City vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 75,566,159 | 75,566,159 |
29d82ab6674599223f14677f1acb1bb5af840ee0 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xbbbf1bfb70267bfe506528e6935c2bf7c3e1ebb66febbf932d733c46ed2f1850 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | 75,566,159 | 75,566,159 |
389286569b6566eaebf958fa8be560843c2e94c7 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x4397f8e186e5cfe0b9033913ff125b04ea074a3b01bdc04f3027a4ee5e174aff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | fl1-met-str-2025-08-17 | Will FC Metz vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | 75,566,161 | 75,566,161 |
298998140d1e9454a4da03d82a9694e7dedd205e | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x5b6d17c1f356df8752f4d9f8aef0f4ea7b1f42165ff104a10c11c497a4c13aab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-get-2025-08-17 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-08-17? | 75,566,161 | 75,566,161 |
2ca7befebf69b21ac4829f5fdc63d58e90546625 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x24dca7abd0630b363cc19726e703cd4b85821048ba399fb7af5979fc2b513ca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | lal-rso-esp-2025-08-24 | Will Real Sociedad vs. Espanyol end in a draw? | 75,617,836 | 75,617,836 |
dbab006545fba3e840cdb658236b0e542585871f | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x7ac070bc2e1d5d058dc5819081567ee1a7a1324b75d6628122270f43ee7dbdb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Sparks vs Wings | Event: wnba-la-dal-2025-08-15 | Choice: sparks | Confidence: 0.12676034199557967
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-1... | yes | 1 | lal-osa-val-2025-08-24 | Will Osasuna win on 2025-08-24? | 75,617,836 | 75,617,836 |
c054b55d90cf57add6fa4f9d352233bcf5778636 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xa1562bd343ef7c56389cca039090fa73ca7c765c677211c391e0787115690467 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-tot-bur-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025... | yes | 1 | bun-moe-hsv-2025-08-24 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | 75,617,836 | 75,617,836 |
9faad90553c537bea30f9c3126a301e37cf23e4d | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xfac7fd0e53395dbfb6ca7b26db9715413308039d38a57bb29d2de0dbad78bf24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-ful-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-tou-2025-... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | 75,617,836 | 75,617,836 |
6c3ab4d18acf81c37765584d48a9adbc39424ac4 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x136d43f4e6e4562bbdd90c1df04bb42c58eacccf6a16469c13ac51e9d145f872 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-tou-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on August 18? | Event... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bet-2025-08-27 | Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Betis end in a draw? | 75,741,099 | 75,741,099 |
f70f13f0b4b9e1c1f8bcd74087cc7a2610ce4773 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x1366d5f16bd156aebe327e019919932f926621019f6cec4a2908dff3f830d623 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will OGC Nice win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-tou-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on August 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? |... | yes | 1 | bun-uni-stu-2025-08-23 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
3a1d33617ade1eb1268bbcf9991bed6b14f0a10b | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x4852725c8c5ca8c591e98b7e16196ceb26672190eaf3dc95f45ac826e89fcc6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on August 18? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Event: btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0006888867034755015
3. Question: Will Brann... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-ast-2025-08-23 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
a95b16c6366fe5eeeeb5305ea7d62b70efd2ab1f | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x5a70e8ad07e44def12452ed6f114b2f74ee9829f263330c1fd54a9064b978b65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Event: btc-above-100k-till-2025-end | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.0006888867034755015
2. Question: Will Brann win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-brn-lrn-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aberdeen vs. FCSB end in a draw? | Eve... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-24? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
329827f8b51e164279ebec86233157d6d6d53687 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x601cd732f899d4fa680bc40b521ed9d2212af181fb108b6eccd066434931e868 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brann win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-brn-lrn-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aberdeen vs. FCSB end in a draw? | Event: uel-abe-fcsb-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-21 | Cho... | yes | 1 | bun-pau-dor-2025-08-23 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
a419a8f7a08ac83648fd48e7076a2817cccec4a1 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x6d2d27ba02b5380073ba32f40d73e1eac41e886115b990a60ab0b22bd1219889 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aberdeen vs. FCSB end in a draw? | Event: uel-abe-fcsb-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-18? | Event: epl-lee-eve-2025-08-18 | C... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-bol-2025-08-23 | Will Bologna win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
197e25764f507e3d25ff41e3ff499f5852053715 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x7e39eee4c0ca2f25881d449fae3ce480c3f55e06a3e473c07fa67918815fd2d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-mal-sig-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-18? | Event: epl-lee-eve-2025-08-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | ... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
8a0ba3aaf3ca258bf84e46d83ad53507abc2554c | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x80addbe2f20835aa9d252b7273f783b7a99879ee3aef2bfa3608dbc9058b2478 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-18? | Event: epl-lee-eve-2025-08-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Dynamo Kyiv end in a draw? | Event: uel-m... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-cre-2025-08-23 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
cb423bfceadedadf80bf5190af9b1d9f2e4c44c1 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x8bb8e224e6a400a9e91d91782e6ecf654f6b50e4475be7949ee666006927f1b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Dynamo Kyiv end in a draw? | Event: uel-mta-dky-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-c... | yes | 1 | sea-udi-ver-2025-08-25 | Will Verona win on 2025-08-25? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
52201ba699aa49f02ddccc21ca7812feafd1dd9d | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x93f32d4c7f82292145a948da0a1d6c5c2def991fa613571d3b273df08f29e158 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Dynamo Kyiv end in a draw? | Event: uel-mta-dky-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will SK Slovan Bratislava vs. BSC Young Boys end in a ... | yes | 1 | ucl-bru-ran-2025-08-27 | Will Club Brugge vs. Glasgow Rangers end in a draw? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
98d9183a09583370ebcf99488618c98f697c94a2 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xb409f1f3fa8fa25468614a4896bdd61facaf8776afb454de675dc80bb5b9ce20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? | Event: epl-che-cry-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will SK Slovan Bratislava vs. BSC Young Boys end in a draw? | Event: uel-sba-byn-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-s... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-gir-2025-08-24 | Will Villarreal vs. Girona end in a draw? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
8410ae3c90acbb4f06fcc9b0825243e0f6a2b882 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xfd0a6df409cf78b0b06460e7a168130dab5305686989fad84af8c219480111f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will SK Slovan Bratislava vs. BSC Young Boys end in a draw? | Event: uel-sba-byn-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-sun-wes-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lech Poznan vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? |... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-mun-2025-08-24 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24? | 75,773,152 | 75,773,152 |
2a58e30bbd051ac4fa0b3cc8e1f1eeaada9e495b | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x053ef16df9f813a9be07df779c1855d629dc00986c65858213d45c2de332b89e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-08-16? | Event: epl-sun-wes-2025-08-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lech Poznan vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? | Event: uel-lpo-gkn-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? | Event: ufc-319-du... | yes | 1 | ucl-kar-fer-2025-08-27 | Will Qarabag vs. Ferencvaros end in a draw? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
7e060d5eaba151864417210e2a1ccf53a0a75fd3 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x1fd4a5ad67dc3e9dd006eb38d19f8b228e45d63bc8080148877ad8966d6c1c58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lech Poznan vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? | Event: uel-lpo-gkn-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will HNK Rijeka vs. PAOK end in a ... | yes | 1 | uel-lrn-brn-2025-08-27 | Will AEK Larnaka vs. Brann end in a draw? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
e2dcbaf2e05507ec3e8f67d5f13d9bd310b96e75 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x330f7eb4e8368c923c8e161c33527d14c496865fb11fdeb183450769c1356f08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? | Event: ufc-319-du-plessis-vs-chimaev-win-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will HNK Rijeka vs. PAOK end in a draw? | Event: uel-rij-paok-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ludogorets win on 2025-08-21? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-bur-sun-2025-08-23 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
34381f964f7989c7e00bbe06af4cdd6350d15c1f | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x3b911a76aa5842c53616f81ba4fbdfe623bd592a3b725ac5caf5d33d3f66b748 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will HNK Rijeka vs. PAOK end in a draw? | Event: uel-rij-paok-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ludogorets win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-shk-lud-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-bet-ala-... | yes | 1 | ucl-kob-bas-2025-08-27 | Will FC Kopenhagen vs. FC Basel end in a draw? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
6e83154d7f412366ccdc3462970a2f3a224c4940 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x4d66d7113d0b51148cfe010a58d4f39b5d831860e43a3c95af9d15fd4de2c4c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ludogorets win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-shk-lud-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-pao-sam-2025-0... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-fen-2025-08-27 | Will Benfica vs. Fenerbahçe end in a draw? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
2ad2fab3b673f0f5f1b6d83085d1ff4dfe67e429 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x5953c4a2580904cbc4829701c03159325ff57574b860b74ac6950a7fda9dab54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Betis vs. Alaves end in a draw? | Event: lal-bet-ala-2025-08-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-pao-sam-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-08-17? | Event: fl1-sbr-lil-2025-08... | yes | 1 | bun-fre-aug-2025-08-23 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
b76d19bb73fe6a4dd0d44ff977a046e34d4ae0c6 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xa6658d2e1c1b0b24d759cb8f034496cf4be55a9b16d0a0f67add08592f1d8f2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Samsunspor win on 2025-08-21? | Event: uel-pao-sam-2025-08-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-08-17? | Event: fl1-sbr-lil-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min? | Event: length-... | yes | 1 | lal-mal-cel-2025-08-23 | Will Mallorca win on 2025-08-23? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
fd71c52e305210f80e560566d9adba7326bc395a | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xe62fb04fa60ba54159fd71d8f7dbfa72fc81983fedf43e1d9f78e00a3eb8d520 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-08-17? | Event: fl1-sbr-lil-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min? | Event: length-of-the-next-mrbeast-video | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Lille OSC end ... | yes | 1 | ucl-sgr-bod-2025-08-26 | Will Sturm Graz vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw? | 75,773,153 | 75,773,153 |
41733c0c765af437a85e761c85c6b83bc5cc8df6 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x2df29117ae772ffb73c5947dab90f9ed3ffeea19af6e8a54695c200b3b165e9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min? | Event: length-of-the-next-mrbeast-video | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? | Event: fl1-sbr-lil-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City vs.... | yes | 1 | sea-par-ata-2025-08-30 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-08-30? | 75,855,492 | 75,855,492 |
adfc6e95e18cec21ccb5fe389e8b5fea8737119c | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x892ccab1964cdd0d53a114dad0a58fc183e2b608c0136274c26b5229df704dbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Brestois 29 vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? | Event: fl1-sbr-lil-2025-08-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end... | yes | 1 | fl1-lor-lil-2025-08-30 | Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30? | 75,855,492 | 75,855,492 |
40921fb0a3f10f7a86997dcf32bf82e839ce5391 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xaa2014664918ee59e5d435789ae64d805f3fe27c6deb7cbdeeb38ce33648faeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-mac-tot-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Metz vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace e... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | 75,855,492 | 75,855,492 |
f96fe2ea8f4f9eb1db61b2b26df7f136096606c5 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xaf5f56d8c8e3e684b13a26e1c13a94888f8a7b2addcf82204261585847d225d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Event: epl-mun-ars-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Metz vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | Event: fl1-met-str-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-08-17? |... | yes | 1 | bun-wer-b04-2025-08-30 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-08-30? | 75,855,492 | 75,855,492 |
2d1ff0fae5dcb5e919d68ea508f16f81fd38b3c1 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xafc7f84d1e04336042dd821b28088eef0642065d96e813d716a6a4c91dd494b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Metz vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? | Event: fl1-met-str-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-cel-get-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Sociedad vs. Espanyol end in a draw? | Ev... | yes | 1 | lal-val-get-2025-08-29 | Will Getafe win on 2025-08-29? | 75,855,492 | 75,855,492 |
0d44c07e28537b0f68c927971a71036fb9a6abc3 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xb450d592c2fd6a9de1952f6a76467709d8af58ecf7425488b5ef1145d6da74ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-08-17? | Event: lal-cel-get-2025-08-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Sociedad vs. Espanyol end in a draw? | Event: lal-rso-esp-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Osasuna win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-osa-val-2025... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-bre-2025-08-30 | Will Brentford win on 2025-08-30? | 75,855,492 | 75,855,492 |
202ae02be5bcc548eca3b4b1ee8bbeaaff252d24 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xf48a0e9832ba5f039979cebba2568c8ca1d8157ffb380a5592cf156b40530567 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Sociedad vs. Espanyol end in a draw? | Event: lal-rso-esp-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Osasuna win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-osa-val-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw... | yes | 1 | uel-gkn-lpo-2025-08-28 | Will KRC Genk vs. Lech Poznan end in a draw? | 75,855,492 | 75,855,492 |
536e001d7fa6b25013073e0ae0489df79681af10 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x30ca14f40b41fc20c5547be06e8493c09e32e9c88ecafd78c799d85b8a705a4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Osasuna win on 2025-08-24? | Event: lal-osa-val-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | Event: bun-moe-hsv-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-... | yes | 1 | lal-ala-mad-2025-08-30 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | 75,855,493 | 75,855,493 |
6b7be872d7e21b81587f9384ef86777b6ea6334a | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x4c2ed3b1215cb1b6190a61dad5426b01783bb4e415df066086747f07f9c48c85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | Event: bun-moe-hsv-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Betis end in a draw?... | yes | 1 | sea-cre-sas-2025-08-29 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-29? | 75,855,493 | 75,855,493 |
2aea86c0ef706b61d4f7fc1a50f14f8a8c3a81f8 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x8bac2b3fc99ec45f644c7cd3eb0f631762025302f793e25e388d14968ab001b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-eve-bri-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Betis end in a draw? | Event: lal-cel-bet-2025-08-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-uni-stu-20... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-pau-2025-08-29 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29? | 75,855,493 | 75,855,493 |
bb0c46941c8b29e626b114b46abb11a5ba30c840 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xb0f3cdbf8ee22b6b050286aac3b2599904d3ad82d742f1b65ee67ae074d3a06c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Betis end in a draw? | Event: lal-cel-bet-2025-08-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-uni-stu-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bre-as... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-moe-2025-08-30 | Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? | 75,855,493 | 75,855,493 |
8ae4b5a59a5c6c81273c1960f8822eb00c2060d3 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xdd04011204f645c2582f9ad9a76ca72c32b2dad22639ba53ba7e7e99f5f79d2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-uni-stu-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bre-ast-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-20... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-bre-2025-08-30 | Will Sunderland AFC vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 75,855,493 | 75,855,493 |
a6307904ab1f966fa4af0bb47028f5e1219746e5 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xf099dda80246b2f9a4904fe13b6898063e9ad5598d43f7bb4d8cfea619b779cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-23? | Event: epl-bre-ast-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-pau-do... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Will Wolves vs. Everton end in a draw? | 75,855,493 | 75,855,493 |
eee20add402fc7377b64e23ac923aa07cfa367fa | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x425d988ea7563e8485191578305794e1b447d611e79e3850bc87f1614f0ff9bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-24? | Event: epl-cry-not-2025-08-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-pau-dor-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-08-23? | Event: sea-rom-bol-20... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-mal-2025-08-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | 75,882,657 | 75,882,657 |
bef246e953c87cbb845323bbc20f67a21e726652 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0x5deedb351655fcc87c4d493d6673f914a9b0e650a4d1582bf49d4fa82b9827c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-23? | Event: bun-pau-dor-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-08-23? | Event: sea-rom-bol-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | ... | yes | 1 | sea-gen-juv-2025-08-31 | Will Juventus win on 2025-08-31? | 75,896,267 | 75,896,267 |
53e329709f8fccd4d71035e2f88fbb5f4e1ed718 | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xf9dbfae17f61432d3c843a6265d6b001f62eee0a1e58ce3b5a5a0dd10ebd91d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna win on 2025-08-23? | Event: sea-rom-bol-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-23? | Event: sea-mil-cre-2025-08-23 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | lal-bet-bil-2025-08-31 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-31? | 75,899,585 | 75,899,585 |
a7f537f1957be44889f1ac22ce7b7d966037ac9d | 0x13c905b6958584dcdfe741ea08a844345d791682 | 0xf3cf6fae1fc4a2991ce6337a1512b75647d3342c11b8658f782767ee77994c23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? | Event: ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-23? | Event: sea-mil-cre-2025-08-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Verona win on 2025-08-25? | Event: sea-udi-ver-2025-08-25 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | lal-ray-bar-2025-08-31 | Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona end in a draw? | 75,975,577 | 75,975,577 |
9d1d5ae0cae81ca717696215989e2a4d3bfdfc1e | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,211,183 | 64,211,183 |
b1b12453ccf0ddd1c06ecb93c593cd88db8cb3ed | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x84cc453856ec7cd3029e2651e6a9e5ed4c3e8ace0ada815911706885a2d65a7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals?
Event: atp-finals-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Ou... | yes | 1 | atp-finals-winner | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | 64,451,262 | 64,451,262 |
68754972cbbfe546d017d57492b9c3c85100f78e | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x9a48816414341dc512714fd9b25acf447d5c651142ef5263d6976d05356d4875 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will England beat Ir... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-england-vs-ireland | Will England beat Ireland? | 64,451,262 | 64,451,262 |
8530d689acd458b912ccfaf053207c5d3dfd6cce | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x0bd2607021db3c4797a9d7d71b5c33fe6d3c5e4158fb629e1098ca35210cc553 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | ucl-sporting-cp-vs-arsenal | Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP? | 64,811,250 | 64,811,250 |
8f87491f15e8d32d3a4c74817bbe91cef53d3aba | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x8b965c99a3c9a622596cf4e7898c3d567ffb49974ab5d8c317dc250f702e493a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-manchester-city-vs-feyenoord | Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord? | 64,811,250 | 64,811,250 |
b9d6e816e05eb69c85bfefa645f8597a2656ef7c | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xbe912f93652b8c6496adb45adcfca93f4dc0fd881e7b7c1fb364c627654ffd60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-5 | Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship? | 64,945,547 | 64,945,547 |
16b1de4a2a183d18c9edd4bead16e1472be70c30 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x48d592d96e49f7b5ab094d28f4eab49e37b05ba592c08fb33d7f96c2265909c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-6 | Will game 6 of the World Chess Championship be a draw? | 64,968,887 | 64,968,887 |
ae15e9170b46ba14bf886218f6f973989660693e | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x64362e9522741782f6bdc4c7953c599977438b519a7f784d8a40e11abf855c3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? | 65,010,601 | 65,010,601 |
14146a66a0ddbf67f60ae6f6ffc6314881901340 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x2de47aa9fb9bdc85a558d1b796f7d1f69b8ebb7d25b9ac135762a4b17da616e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Bournemouth vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 65,170,688 | 65,170,688 |
0c23a1b251d6ac80fafbc8e23cef2e9828ca1ac5 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x35d1fae516f68d36f7cec110d353d6dd4315212bc9610e4e45ef63fd747cdd05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-10 | Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | 65,210,070 | 65,210,070 |
467a2ec04c45a7aab6f21f209f0eef3ed375ab79 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x69bc9d603f0b64cc827ec93b7c2148c37aa3b7379d5d907e169b647f2d7d5044 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-12 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship? | 65,285,496 | 65,285,496 |
ba3471eb29aee2dcc16cad3964d92e48b654848a | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x5d6af2454c799de67232dcd3e06ba217fe49424e2cfbe67a7b5ca31779e20247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | 65,980,001 | 65,980,001 |
fe010e4a7e6c0a82f541f730c0d1205e6e130e28 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x67c1b75228b1b28cfdc6856033a19d3a43e74d88c6b6fa33263e9a1191a9c310 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-ips-2024-12-27 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-27? | 66,039,495 | 66,039,495 |
e08718c943400b4d886b340e46777a49b8559734 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xc908e26576854a5959929655f133899fc425f57ac89ab741a103c9e1b554812c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | 66,059,818 | 66,059,818 |
0e271fba27ef621d63a9be24bc397e7425ab9ff8 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x7f9ec5f8474d436d215e9cbd86dd8c0739972b2904c6d3d57ebdd38f65509631 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-mac-2024-12-29 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-29? | 66,076,137 | 66,076,137 |
0dbaf9ebe8b47c14b6f054721c389e0270bf7601 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xb56b985b285f5c20e1e2e50114a41f8c31aa1ca8bfc9c7cf190c0c0a58c26253 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-ast-bri-2024-12-30 | Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 66,134,809 | 66,134,809 |
fe7033d3f262cab110d76cc512b329491e91fbcb | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x0357da7e4f6fe0d1c0aea86eda2ce0315256524e0f8741f43f699eb301cd2629 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-mac-wes-2025-01-04 | Will West Ham win on 2025-01-04? | 66,347,496 | 66,347,496 |
1eb9de32a6183609db31481298deab23de8826e8 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x5817e148183be3af45455699ed92fbf2ba4846525f94e6710ac454bc9dc9d002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | 66,347,496 | 66,347,496 |
02f3a87fafb4932baeb35c71f5c052faa2ffb6f6 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xb9f3c202b0c2d5294ce5041909674e50ac44d02fba6ea86559af74dcf7b79e0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Will Fulham win on 2025-01-05? | 66,347,496 | 66,347,496 |
8afb8c0902e46aeeb17f9e1d5fc7dec2498978a1 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xeb12460f83e80f213e06e26864e14fb6b79a467f0838912daa0c46d377a09834 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-sou-bre-2025-01-04 | Will Brentford win on 2025-01-04? | 66,347,496 | 66,347,496 |
3999154d5c9b78c4807ba7053e16b72d32db14ad | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x55917131502ac2a14e686f1a1b660811983043f1b9e96a3c6b57729357cf0201 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? | 66,726,945 | 66,726,945 |
4bec4bfbe118daf4baed36a76e16d6673a3d59aa | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x3fce2b7d9309d7c5da017c95a4c3270868ccc650af968412ce64193be18910ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | uel-fenerbahce-vs-lyon | Will Fenerbahce beat Lyon? | 67,078,614 | 67,078,614 |
e565aac02c0d6bc510f259b0c96c54eea8b26566 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x4d7be0a4d4766eff77ec08cae5e76a04ba748a869c94316e77b3259168002515 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | uel-porto-vs-olympiacos | Will Porto beat Olympiacos? | 67,078,614 | 67,078,614 |
6e5322f343d699ca9e8f1fa2cabecb70c7b8269e | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x9818afae082d8d595ca71c63c30164cf0d4f28cceed7a9d983b70d632805a36e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | uel-viktoria-plzen-vs-anderlecht | Will Viktoria Plzen beat Anderlecht? | 67,078,614 | 67,078,614 |
2e9b26edacea27cddfe9629c6d10ff63cebdbe94 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x04d5e75c920683705a89a85a62a01cf842fbbaf5e0c78e302fc1371aa052afa3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | australian-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | 67,182,843 | 67,182,843 |
221a7cfb433b376347c813607dbce03cf55c5da2 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x625462d4bb2e38b4bc52591a864be67419e0e9ffb3f9183e95b997fa1223f758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-01? | 67,426,719 | 67,426,719 |
e290b0fba32c2cbf494da6ec7b3eebe23c4926ec | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xa1c47fb6d97cffec16499c07fee524838ebf259aabcd0a21839497dddf47b8cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-mun-cry-2025-02-02 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-02? | 67,506,501 | 67,506,501 |
62c35c8969e5c84599cade518af1b672390ee329 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x5725fa7eb459352b0af04801928f4109c3e4fc36f255995accfa30f50fc0f093 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-psv-2025-03-12 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12? | 68,986,398 | 68,986,398 |
db1cb14217e512c9365c49d31b768c504ddf3a6d | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x0e6f8d90b5b8628970858cee01ce0801ef5932ee167ea7aa6b90bbb30feede96 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-04-23 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23? | 70,691,853 | 70,691,853 |
315b3cd3c1ad1bd160c014375b22aaad12eb651e | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x5d56e64fed8cb2704f8ed5b1d257a0e23755064b77ccc05048c29fa6a844c003 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | 2025-us-open-winner-w | Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open? | 76,170,969 | 76,170,969 |
8c46ab3798f2b6f4927872230e2ace9967601daa | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x546e7cb4d75382524c1a3c745c281c999ffbefd8f9078748c1a60b83c964c04f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Even... | yes | 1 | uef-hrv-mon-2025-09-08 | Will Croatia win on 2025-09-08? | 76,237,080 | 76,237,080 |
020b8c4fa94b567493f81aaff8117ab0c9d52c1d | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x1196532c69de5ec1e1a21decc890c00c9700ffaed1449a8c19c3f55e740b966c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals? | Event: atp-finals-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-ireland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sportin... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-lat-2025-09-09 | Will Albania win on 2025-09-09? | 76,280,970 | 76,280,970 |
6b2378adde66e4aef3352fd878a6f427a0ff1767 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x348ae0b3ef1006fc06e042705d92b55c21a4d19464579b42bf76430e4b6ed2c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will England beat Ireland? | Event: uefa-nations-league-england-vs-ireland | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord? | Event: ucl-manchester-c... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-hsv-2025-09-13 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-13? | 76,429,452 | 76,429,452 |
da40b8b2946514bb398bebe0feb51d92e8dd01cc | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord? | Event: ucl-manchester-city-vs-feyenoord | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,555,225 | 76,555,225 |
6a643183082322d2ebb063b6d0912ec1cf43c430 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x82207d6a1504c5139b5237194cd253f670c6248b5b86a472519ecc371c04d002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord? | Event: ucl-manchester-city-vs-feyenoord | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will game 6 of the World... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-17? | 76,579,979 | 76,579,979 |
e59c940864a9fafa9cf7b3da94aa2ea82dc3ce90 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xfefaa14ee813fd9606e1bc90e4b1ba8c584de2647604cac193765c50547d343e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ding Liren win game 5 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will game 6 of the World Chess Championship be a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ch... | yes | 1 | ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-09-18? | 76,643,036 | 76,643,036 |
abaac6fc1ac67b07f891834fd6e4232f7d2052c1 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xa96ca4ad5c70f3b0ec8a6fc56d0e359b7dd39beafe970a26a04bb091ad5621bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will game 6 of the World Chess Championship be a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-6 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Tottenham end in a draw... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-esp-2025-09-20 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-20? | 76,702,032 | 76,702,032 |
b0c56d338f1aa94d0b21e63189aaf67d822acb48 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xf25b3a43d717e2b6cc164231359867d845b36be4263458d75155744f649d5bfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | ... | yes | 1 | sea-nap-pis-2025-09-22 | Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? | 76,794,462 | 76,794,462 |
88a0b2853f89bda8f1fce6307c3473281a2fdb02 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xab3eac189555b839ddaa859d54d621193f6fe304ccee3b24c6600d54237b658b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju w... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-bar-2025-09-25 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? | 76,912,282 | 76,912,282 |
66042646fbf87fff4f33e6bb627eca79da948b59 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x41cc434590af62f435d8e0b8d2d53a0ea5c2f96cdbc1f828c28cafc49b557cce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | bun-bay-wer-2025-09-26 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? | 76,947,314 | 76,947,314 |
aed01a56dcdb3e8c7a07b2183a612680ef658532 | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0xd895ed2c9a4965dd92baec270a46a64842fa0c4093750f62eae913c3a10648d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-12 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 20... | no | 1 | epl-mac-bur-2025-09-27 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27? | 76,990,528 | 76,990,528 |
b985ccd781072b0bfc059dbe889c298545813b3a | 0x13ce0f6f73a83a2be1eb484c91169c2bd5b935f0 | 0x7f5f2edb8dde6913890a0880560d7a5ebc917f6aadbf9da6527ce918721be42d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-27? | Event: epl-ars-ips-2024-12-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | Event: fide... | no | 1 | ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Will Slavia Praha win on 2025-09-30? | 77,111,199 | 77,111,199 |
e63e2f9cde2335d1da0a16fde492eabdc92f279d | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x741173ad41407bd18f53c071198d17b99eb75fe5d8a116d53630911c022a1362 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town?
Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | 62,444,162 | 62,444,162 |
bca1399460819da022979c52b3210b99fa53119b | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xedfcc3439904609aa02e9b60759d04a35ea6c7c6063407c8828353eac45973a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool?
Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stric... | no | 1 | epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | 62,671,250 | 62,671,250 |
734b305459df4d5282000a2872113e5a526457e2 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x1285041a4cb756d3b5a7a2c9e2491bd0a6815c25b1bd54e7d8f307587bfdea3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester United beat Ast... | no | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-manchester-united | Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | 62,720,756 | 62,720,756 |
fb0905c355e087281bda7ea21c7a6fc0f987effe | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x2e823ce49edbbe2c363dd1b5dff6c42c7fe4e5cfb82ee5b40f482b27aa50d2ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | no | 1 | epl-mun-bre-2024-10-19 | Will Man Utd win on 2024-10-19? | 63,245,205 | 63,245,205 |
ca75455b13fb8b2126a383a0a04ffcf0eb8d0535 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x3ab32876cd67a2be2abe85041c28bc9a19dfcfefcc34c64253ca4a71176c0beb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | no | 1 | epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | 63,245,205 | 63,245,205 |
428b03d632b76c965da52811cacea26bf9c12ee3 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xafc8c931c8a04a13d554ed26f7d3b5fbbc4dc922fad3e3849322fd430c7546c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-eve-2024-10-19 | Will Ipswich vs. Everton end in a draw? | 63,245,205 | 63,245,205 |
066ceb3c550c0b26b12d4c481906b3cdfdac9249 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xd847e371920c5197c5ad4b49d07c2ca17f078fbe5bc915c8627be9a9a63f7117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | 63,288,792 | 63,288,792 |
e49dfdae0fa364cdb446767aa90fc040cba38d84 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xda9d0570e804be048d4808054f18772fb16045081a87a2db867726cf588a3250 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | 63,288,792 | 63,288,792 |
070c3098715b8bc73ef90b9f08ebf77a38235830 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xbe127ab4ee8e0b9e2edebe7fc26bc8512bd700079937f1d4740920fe7488db4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-aston-villa-vs-bologna | Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | 63,397,595 | 63,397,595 |
cc1605b6f67936ed2c7951039336848bdb46297a | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xe780ec9beba204ed49c6c5946fe02d0d03d437c96f5399a1e3d0029e5d5020aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Arsenal? | 63,397,595 | 63,397,595 |
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