sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
b2c7db0190097e7e284f5e7500a1801a7e63ef8d | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xe952c969c4c10391839c96a821081a979cd6c7ce8f122649df1c5bcf5c0aa15f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-bri-eve-2025-01-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 ... | no | 1 | ucl-liv-psg-2025-03-11 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-11? | 69,066,153 | 69,066,153 |
1a7d685ee66a0e27e05ad807e529a3dc5c4bcd76 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x50c086c44c5799611f617c1b2ca46d3f9d0bf80183c49f4ca5268304da62ff59 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-bri-eve-2025-01-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Ch... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-not-2025-03-15 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-15? | 69,365,833 | 69,365,833 |
86dd6a48080a3a502c2bc3063247e070933e2b28 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x65d176d3fb0cf1fe2878976b1eb3407b48f9e3a8711d6b7e5f8b004a32706815 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-eve-lei-2025-02-01 | Choi... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-mun-2025-03-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-16? | 69,365,833 | 69,365,833 |
527f35957b2e4057d7e1e4d055843deab691d2b2 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x11a71f51f620dc30aba9c2c087b44666be683840d5df9ca27a40dc60d679b790 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-eve-lei-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-26? | Event: epl-ast-wes-2025-01-26 | Choi... | no | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-04-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-01? | 69,807,392 | 69,807,392 |
bbfdae7e39730ce66daa8c4f3c0b77043dd9d99f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x14e5e3bb85e545e65b472fafb2d946b404aaacde224bcae7c2d38bc3158d1039 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-02-01? | Event: epl-eve-lei-2025-02-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-26? | Event: epl-ast-wes-2025-01-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-01-26? | Event: epl-ful-mun-2025-01-26 | Choice... | no | 1 | epl-bri-ast-2025-04-02 | Will Brighton win on 2025-04-02? | 69,852,942 | 69,852,942 |
47e71562a73fdb82ec4e4c14ac816d741a443878 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x3dfbd6f6ef6e7240d9ee77fabb97ae7a85cee40f26d9db8372a150dbe456e5e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-26? | Event: epl-ast-wes-2025-01-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-01-26? | Event: epl-ful-mun-2025-01-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 ... | no | 1 | epl-ast-not-2025-04-05 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-05? | 69,970,286 | 69,970,286 |
b6da4af75f1c8709601a8305808e0d1140245958 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xdd4e27a1e6f13aafa2066a11d1a855e9743791a45164fb31c30fa94454f19536 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-01-26? | Event: epl-ful-mun-2025-01-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-mac-liv-2025-02-... | no | 1 | epl-mun-mac-2025-04-06 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-06? | 70,012,530 | 70,012,530 |
9dbfd12d98bac14a8f215caf6b4f67d49aa0c112 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x130ceb9fec2b69491404cc5e56c7740d0c54b0e3761ddce90533fbfaf2131d57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? | Event: ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-23? | Event: epl-mac-liv-2025-02-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-02-22? | Event: epl-ful-cry-2025-02-2... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-new-2025-04-07 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-07? | 70,055,698 | 70,055,698 |
7ee7504d1897e880263ea2d9237bd7b0f4adf070 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x1c54bb7b4b94ed15224cc69b465668a3f0a80bc3b6a909b0877d721cb3ec71b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30?
Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | 77,119,771 | 77,119,771 |
b1f9f929d6ee364ef4323e7e11a464e5d23af0d3 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xf98d8c1395fd9a36cd8409cae04af9d3e5c6f8272eca46089574d8e3272eead6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30?
Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "con... | yes | 1 | ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | 77,119,782 | 77,119,782 |
739e1a449424e8953280e7966f06df7993e68ac5 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xf23cfb56d69b665c9ea431be9d5e4661d511f0fe5b858966673e1cb2282612b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01?
Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10... | yes | 1 | ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | 77,159,282 | 77,159,282 |
ad5ebdd63bbe811a882c7232676fe67fe5608def | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x9aefeb2d5459d5bf13eb9ed80c304a4a18bd0425df71d53a4da2a3827ad89abd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | 77,184,608 | 77,184,608 |
7b96ebe65ffa4144f21f95ebb852724b8e7f56d3 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x7ad3913f3d4a5c6ba99c3d0a3d3652dd191a55b37b3b97fbd1e1881cbfc9f496 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uel-not-mid-2025-10-02 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? | 77,219,562 | 77,219,562 |
b0a2e174760d4c60fc0acf0bd204dfeafaddc87a | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xe1405378d5468f895334b9b38f44058dd9769524d13b85b489d40bdb2f743cc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uel-rom-lil-2025-10-02 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-02? | 77,219,562 | 77,219,562 |
6c72738b486099f82a06239b7f9dd84fb09d625c | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x4fa24428f1d2d6685ccd4a4f7f45f5ea85ff7479bfee9e58d1344a01098265d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | arg-aaj-cac-2025-10-03 | Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-10-03? | 77,279,296 | 77,279,296 |
4372dee063d4369e077aff09dcce9d027eb8ff68 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x62cabde5b8d329f92e38d43e14897ac24816f99564382758df1b2e5216cd8af6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | 77,316,699 | 77,316,699 |
f5151725693d5700068036f7dd137b0abf3dcc17 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x85c7fc3e0fe614860761c68d4c1c77f255f42a92062f479cf70e7903e2137d02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | arg-boc-new-2025-10-05 | Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-10-05? | 77,316,699 | 77,316,699 |
cf51a163e734d743ce80bc537e92869a07e6593b | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xfb06c34003d381b4f293a93f56cae396505c780f6922df4adb620f8f87e2c56d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? | 77,320,870 | 77,320,870 |
5c0457cd5531856242c6d646be203ad44e120dd0 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x0ad4a931d2f8f68bc5468baebbebf6f624a75c542ea30c500455320cd4905c8e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | fif-gib-ncl-2025-10-08 | Will Gibraltar win on 2025-10-08? | 77,440,202 | 77,440,202 |
e8f2958ac5ad28b779e7b4b938f7242fa33c6582 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xbe549614d8901334fb0bbeeb7889d65a2982b0ab120ce5ef0a8d8eda936b7a09 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | fif-uzb-kuw-2025-10-09 | Will Uzbekistan win on 2025-10-09? | 77,465,606 | 77,465,606 |
3d99e2397e0f0ddae4cf0d09cd0eda0045f6f551 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x50622da45a3974b253d8796ac5b6d8916255829b3331e08c6c161980b8a2d092 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | fif-ury-dom-2025-10-10 | Will Uruguay win on 2025-10-10? | 77,526,531 | 77,526,531 |
d9bfd67163bd08cb758df41e643d687521c6e57f | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xcee67de75c17cef54fe3a70010a1b19dee8acb2f7504626e6b3596880b029270 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | fif-kor1-bra-2025-10-10 | Will Brazil win on 2025-10-10? | 77,526,531 | 77,526,531 |
0f6b4e4402960b38a95175f8639d36ec3eaa9bbc | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x7eacfba01742b276a78a34198f52a80c053c9e5f2afb09c6d95392a6a87273cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-nld-fin-2025-10-12 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? | 77,601,418 | 77,601,418 |
69aca9ab9d0b50195b589c8432668c9fdd0933ec | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x6bb229fa489c7999ed55bfe4ea85fef44ec7c9ccf76d94c5e30147f27c7d2860 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-isl-fra-2025-10-13 | Will France win on 2025-10-13? | 77,660,114 | 77,660,114 |
a40a2a78ea9582d8229f0ff6d4155f9d5a11521c | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xc19c26fe06dc7f41aac5a075554ef842d407ad924478234e98e6f3325c0c03e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | fif-jpn-bra-2025-10-14 | Will Brazil win on 2025-10-14? | 77,678,439 | 77,678,439 |
4446a7b29ce0c2a1cd8a9058911637b451dfdd20 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xb405d114d6b9b360e4ca8241265ec205ded70c98bb728eded8bf7809edc6c926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | fif-rus-bol-2025-10-14 | Will Russia win on 2025-10-14? | 77,688,055 | 77,688,055 |
c5f2be82ff8540610f5922163ff502ba87d32da7 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xc235d23a27e243213b646a1d29bdb88f36065817323891ca3bf9d598d121258e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-osa-2025-10-18 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-18? | 77,872,769 | 77,872,769 |
f3ada9a306e7c78c2984328eeb3e6ce2db5e4c14 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x26a8bc26b42760396c5eade15602123027e6dbc6e703df6409e4ef75ad9b3504 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | sea-com-juv-2025-10-19 | Will Juventus win on 2025-10-19? | 77,893,097 | 77,893,097 |
40bfe5bd3364acba884ed3d651b532beb6528a1e | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x4472973213244c75974e74162c79f4c51878dd027d332796d209ad5529ea227f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? | 77,915,704 | 77,915,704 |
0e503027a87f1ebd03679bf370e6a4f66a30af82 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x2c786f3a82f79980c7621fa2e6b463198edb080d3ac6360ce069395d110ece34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | sea-mil-pis-2025-10-24 | Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? | 78,139,695 | 78,139,695 |
5f335d4842f6613444946fa46539667c7dbe9d00 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x20d4b4186dd1ef583b767f162ea48e2a32a009399212255eb406739c22dfa6a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm-usg-2025-11-04 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? | 78,612,916 | 78,612,916 |
f7447171e5ffc7bae0836200fb54e3f44c5947b6 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x66c3206394de07729df48e3d536aad2d3a69f583d91399ad06881e03f85fb545 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | ucl-psg-bay-2025-11-04 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04? | 78,612,925 | 78,612,925 |
8a2aa21c5e0c3be75eb637c12910612b7d600665 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x9a1e320340488a0a26b7bbe5ee16e108978e969434c19c2bb53023ff7ce33034 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-mol-ita-2025-11-13 | Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? | 78,988,479 | 78,988,479 |
7694bf2b7ad0b37877a2b2db303a626925aa2a88 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xb42d9ac918cd081c65ec982f6a3ead0763e1f1334de2d8d6127fee9d7418c3c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-nor-est-2025-11-13 | Will Norway win on 2025-11-13? | 78,988,479 | 78,988,479 |
f99276248da395168fe2eb9f33453b5b13cf3fc4 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xf34e22013b78a23833336094f0c4592f773758584e4cb800b16c6194923deea8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | arg-lan-cat-2025-11-14 | Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14? | 79,055,671 | 79,055,671 |
58ac299a8612834bd5cf3543eed7ccca705783d6 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xd046599899089a4e695e1fff59ed221d03f4227d5fc9b14a33d9b83c83288166 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | arg-boc-tig-2025-11-16 | Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-16? | 79,125,730 | 79,125,730 |
d25c70936d26fc31bd792701b9348997ae0ac5b1 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x8e02e71440f009e122cec76592300a1e41f44c1fa5f63a10ac2de919bebb8222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-ger-svk-2025-11-17 | Will Germany win on 2025-11-17? | 79,175,836 | 79,175,836 |
c813552f36724f47c25dc164d4af84682434f1a7 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0xb03a595d2a38347e2e8abf145099690823542377f34fe98ede3f03d295533e4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | uef-nld-lit-2025-11-17 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-17? | 79,175,836 | 79,175,836 |
ac2b053efdfabc3009703b26a8f593e7671a549f | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x17d975a4e99b4294bfd4099e1af9c87e49d8d8dfc70fe13df58ca708ff6bbc0e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-paf-bay-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choic... | yes | 1 | bra-fla-bra-2025-11-22 | Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-22? | 79,385,950 | 79,385,950 |
2a2833119ef23799d8bcbae0882e33e29497a69c | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x3ff9e4474b617e886802d895cb76c372725cff6f31f7299afec971351f57de0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? | Event: ucl-int-sla-2025-09-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: y... | yes | 1 | sea-com-sas-2025-11-28 | Will Como 1907 win on 2025-11-28? | 79,637,280 | 79,637,280 |
c2dda43aa3f968fc0ff8a2d95e8bd1f573ad9f54 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x64bedefdb57377ada37790ada720dc961f34718fae50921303dff5c2af85af67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-ars-oly-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-not-mid-2025-10-02... | yes | 1 | lal-mad-ovi-2025-11-29 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | 79,689,436 | 79,689,436 |
b89bcffe304adc6bb4499bd31e10a0168e218f19 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x17f6b6f3b0bfdd37c3b69cc0644132a50ea18ae43fa41a617728321d87da6f44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? | Event: ucl-bar-psg-2025-10-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-not-mid-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-rom-lil-2025-10-02... | yes | 1 | lal-ala-esp-2025-11-02 | Will Alaves vs. Espanyol end in a draw? | 79,707,107 | 79,707,107 |
ba0ceb7e28a31e7f47848b7c5440aa1082a21504 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x226c47f7ad9e7f63ca333af165faa5f52171aa949f8b2695709c27c628629036 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-not-mid-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-rom-lil-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-10-03? | Event: arg-aaj-ca... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-bar-2025-11-09 | Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-11-09? | 79,707,107 | 79,707,107 |
5973df9fa5433cc47730916bb88c8e5fa3ec5e77 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x32f99548d831beb65fc38bdcf55f8420b72edfe4309f6853c4070ee912c95146 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-02? | Event: uel-rom-lil-2025-10-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-10-03? | Event: arg-aaj-cac-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-hsv-mai-202... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mun-2025-10-19 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? | 79,707,107 | 79,707,107 |
48c49f9491f516d8f7e09a23580b77f242f33911 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x6dca4075128f6e5b112d1f488e55ceb917a30e04dec55be08ae188be02bed339 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-10-03? | Event: arg-aaj-cac-2025-10-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-10-05? | Event: arg-boc... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-not-2025-11-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? | 79,707,107 | 79,707,107 |
26ab1ddcbae50d965454c5afda8204dcf305b4db | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x97ff2647eead48deda01ad7d5b504e2e51a410e619cec2039bddbe0a03bcb36d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-05? | Event: bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-10-05? | Event: arg-boc-new-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2... | yes | 1 | bra-cam-fec-2025-11-12 | Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? | 79,707,107 | 79,707,107 |
796fbd4ba3f7c308a538cd1b76c5024bb91dfad2 | 0x14358bb3ad63a02247032b238860d96bfe690028 | 0x9f4cb89f8da190d6c6f214501c33cf2d06c55941e1b6cd27ed2ed45f5421dc04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-10-05? | Event: arg-boc-new-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? | Event: lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Gibraltar win on 2025-10-08? | Event: fif-gib-ncl-2025... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-mal-2025-10-18 | Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-18? | 79,707,107 | 79,707,107 |
aff1932e6338a4399af06f74bc76f2bd711f9ba3 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x18156e6948bf6def101f0823f0d5ae5fde34abd433b09bf6e3a9b889cae44c8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17?
Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 0.057902 | bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | 66,559,665 | 66,805,672 |
77a621a3ddd0342edfe12b36a0ed8d4c09fccbb3 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x602f372beb47e4b43befa74114db87932a3d4566abb11f2d3cbfdc4dad7158d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
Target market:
Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17?
Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target marke... | no | 0 | dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | 66,564,021 | 66,805,702 |
0c92cd1700d4cdcb8701376d1ba994943e8b09be | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x754bdde9daff0988ae0d5baf566bcdb1ff73e1b0017a30849338389dd4b027f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Ripple above $2.... | yes | 0.030193 | ripple-above-2pt40-on-january-17 | Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? | 66,564,957 | 66,839,362 |
c3fa378d2bad8d8802061ab77bee6f38dce016ca | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x49db986792b7462ae7d3be142ac18575fafcc5341a9fa2a3b4c29838f95dbbb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | no | 0 | solana-above-190-on-january-17 | Solana above $190 on January 17? | 66,568,896 | 66,805,689 |
299ec8b4aae86a2777c56338bc3099a533cf1583 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x8d52fed4ae101977e7807fe97c503bb0124c8a9947e02dd8507b3191bf220d87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 0.102534 | ethereum-above-3300-on-january-24 | Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? | 66,840,170 | 67,092,783 |
e6ac72cb37f16bfd7176798ee8465edce6e1ddd7 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0xf0264f7c572758ec4f4090625ede5244d42a2fbd4244b3ea860f5c69a802d7db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | no | 0.506182 | bitcoin-above-103000-on-january-24 | Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? | 66,841,667 | 67,090,125 |
6751dc3f0fa5ead539b3d1f1e63e5217b67cd932 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x4a8cd34099f6647be718100e965b2ca04a9badfe0cca910d02ac8f8bb47400d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 0.124165 | dogecoin-above-0pt40-on-january-24 | Dogecoin above $0.40 on January 24? | 66,848,385 | 67,092,395 |
dc210b541e48ffaa8a4e8b2a26cba7d1ad288117 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x7032d29ccb5feeea50f45a99688a27e9117d4131802844fb522a7b67717ec3ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | no | 1 | ripple-above-3pt20-on-january-24 | Ripple above $3.20 on January 24? | 66,848,768 | 67,092,411 |
fdff67f9e016320bcf8eef6d82467172efda1c3d | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x2b81c94088d069ab6358ec80e826229e8d1b89b1586ae97cf26cc19ad0824b4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | no | 0.847706 | bitcoin-above-105000-on-january-31 | Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? | 67,121,387 | 67,370,998 |
4853eafc5069e249df6df331d5b447212bfb6b84 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x4274cf2f5baa14074d70a7cc23226e4ae6854e58876740a16895f2df12cca6c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 0.013773 | ethereum-above-3400-on-january-31 | Ethereum above $3,400 on January 31? | 67,121,545 | 67,400,683 |
0371f90a09391bcf26051acff49d5f8177835611 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x0f3131c874579825ecdbbda8c7aeed071aa908d7c993792c393285900e68906f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 0.506578 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? | 67,363,062 | 67,363,062 |
48646bf1f967c0154b4e1f4f929dcee16e299570 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x8ccff45ee33d6e8be19e552f9ecbcd066733fc6a1eea3a1fcb629e3ded130717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 0.205903 | bitcoin-above-97000-on-february-14 | Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? | 67,646,366 | 67,918,779 |
9bdbe8d2415ffe351bda27b98cd41c104483f61b | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0xdd4eaa5e71ef25584e7ff432fbfac1398cbcca6cc0686a0caf6b284478503a3d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 0.208236 | ethereum-above-2700-on-february-14 | Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14? | 67,646,389 | 67,918,771 |
62416d3f893706b7aaafb5ddf1f33d1a4f876173 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0xbb1c74739d0cab13b4ca77517ee1480fbb014d994cb3559df2d2bea1407a1eaa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | no | 1 | ripple-above-2pt35-on-february-14 | Ripple above $2.35 on February 14? | 67,646,474 | 67,918,767 |
714bab4b757c8212d0278c1a77419d458eb97010 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x98d9781facbf448a67bd1e1e0d538b2afca6e538d73f278308d0211fbfc87c94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 1 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-by-march-31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | 68,439,762 | 69,438,070 |
a6243091102d5bdc5b627240f613c4353f5eba52 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x39e227f0e4a6c0a7b282d77ae0e7d247d0cc4b8e69a348e853442bbd4db10f6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | yes | 0.559567 | bitcoin-above-86000-on-april-4 | Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4? | 69,643,512 | 69,891,188 |
b23272298df7756dce01d8e83098c85a9da7360c | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0xc76198d01241e0ecaae444702ced77baebeb86b0de48140a72dbd6abaf643dfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | up | 0.000021 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-9-6-am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6 AM ET | 72,550,050 | 72,550,050 |
f20633397bb835b4fb024cd04462bad8bd5e81d4 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0xcd563a05f223ed1b678d2ae935c8571148e491a2f9a81bbf626b98bc3ee9972a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | down | 0.031417 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-july-20 | Ethereum Up or Down on July 20? | 74,151,126 | 74,151,126 |
3e3d83b45cccff9060a8f0ab8f2b20440633ddad | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0xa5b0ca386b1184653249a45fe077a674e879f138c52b517088527169abc55622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-on-july-26 | Ethereum Up or Down on July 26? | 74,436,719 | 74,436,719 |
a3a3c0418b1c1436cb88777c059f1f59b655ffb9 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0x60a04ece2783d37dce8613c30bbff6586bceb49f497cdb4101ed4dcad47a116b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-2 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2? | 74,706,132 | 74,719,306 |
407e0c6491cdc1175f0a283e6fce6d4c78b8ac57 | 0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe | 0xfae1f223b3eafb1db36e4142533de9fd45fc33f66bc11035e25c244fbf056847 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? | Event: bitcoin-above-95000-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.05790161606514056
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt34-on-january-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ripple above $2.40 on January... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-8-8am-et | Solana Up or Down - August 8, 8AM ET | 74,942,861 | 74,942,861 |
75810fb90d740923524f3429db1c25c59df75120 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x576095d208c043aa73258679645ef900f2e1a9bc8bbcb09f60c2f27650002759 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15?
Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | 75,266,700 | 75,266,700 |
12fcb62621327fe11854215c236af757643bebe7 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0xf79180945a19fb35b028194a44cd21cd5deff06049c03fa4d89c4b6dff3ad840 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15?
Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"c... | yes | 1 | lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | 75,266,700 | 75,266,700 |
2b77be6d5a909fee0aab09285cfd827a4ea9d308 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x0efbecdf6aad1b6044be2b1c4bd135ace32c3b75a670ca72fd88988be0585b08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16?
Event... | yes | 1 | fl1-ogc-tou-2025-08-16 | Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | 75,311,911 | 75,311,911 |
74265cee31a5ca096e614317dfc424819e26a441 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0xacd6a07550dcffad0c91ab59b698635431884b8f43e84380786a681d35844e78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | epl-sun-wes-2025-08-16 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-08-16? | 75,311,911 | 75,311,911 |
e6c5bb48d26b33023f5cceacb888bc0407a8bc89 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0xe0f4c6eab4b9f2bd643ced9037b4333aed5d0431e6001d0db164c49179549ae4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | fl1-rcl-lyo-2025-08-16 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-16? | 75,311,911 | 75,311,911 |
4c8fcab1cc181c071dacf08078dee4b5c0df1b3b | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x6890f39e0bb7f48985442a969a9a3e08650cb457e6a3098bdc9229af24a9e61e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-mad-2025-08-17 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-08-17? | 75,352,472 | 75,352,472 |
e36257f4a2ba53d3f52793c7c787b219f0924308 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x8c09b2f02a1c730f5925d543ee678ffcd11265e9bca7d39efc19731bf4a7932a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-get-2025-08-17 | Will Getafe win on 2025-08-17? | 75,352,472 | 75,352,472 |
fc662143c249fcadc541dfcc0f65c4cf644a1ae1 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0xb6554a2304c68cf5dae349931593a13232eae59fbedfb399d620e5c7214f8c7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | fl1-ang-pfc-2025-08-17 | Will Angers SCO win on 2025-08-17? | 75,352,472 | 75,352,472 |
ee805a36157078b19199eb4af7c50bc089251dfe | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x5cff733ff968de4be6bd72bfad0157ae7b38e22feafb401b79d14e48eaa9f089 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | lal-sev-get-2025-08-25 | Will Getafe win on 2025-08-25? | 75,688,514 | 75,688,514 |
64860ca1fbb0e8779b68576c3cc17216b798fb8d | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x260d74eb0af8811ad2a608673f339157ff02fdb6cac38c5111a9fda702f94b99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | ucl-kar-fer-2025-08-27 | Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-27? | 75,749,413 | 75,749,413 |
bef76a5b98e600c8a50cb062de947449282cacac | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x63c54ddce8823231ebfcc6e5d37bea701d35e1b84f74aca70d9e3bd193378467 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | uel-lrn-brn-2025-08-27 | Will Brann win on 2025-08-27? | 75,749,413 | 75,749,413 |
b3b6fdc9e9000a23d3298207f61fd5021d74c565 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0xa1a8c118d6627610dc9a690ba6ea5e4cf6ab5f39615993b3a4259029f76c02af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | uel-sig-mal-2025-08-28 | Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-28? | 75,789,068 | 75,789,068 |
943e7d43be23d16f52e4a943a872855a0a636ea6 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0xbfbb03f6f0ff73ec899a32e4686e33890204526a3a7c647906ac32e6cbd89a0a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | uel-gkn-lpo-2025-08-28 | Will Lech Poznan win on 2025-08-28? | 75,789,068 | 75,789,068 |
d62fceba302f12eaacb409589edc1fb27e779551 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x497cb84ade781b78f295583c721a5e7606d494e1451a81580735361b6b99840e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-pau-2025-08-29 | Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-08-29? | 75,827,263 | 75,827,263 |
2da3fb7d30b007e8a227db2ba4c99463512f1882 | 0x1443caa710f96231c59c840b69b3a4ad8c206f8b | 0x9ba4722d7d263694e323dd89535bec43dea488893ce33fcb9549ccc04ce8fbc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15? | Event: fl1-ren-olm-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-15? | Event: lal-gir-ray-2025-08-15 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-08-16? | Event: fl1-ogc-t... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-rso-2025-08-30 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-08-30? | 75,876,998 | 75,876,998 |
825e771b2703808d9b9cd7078e01c8baf922f07d | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 67,823,192 | 67,823,192 |
362e7987d1ea9fc8b2813b21f378b39e0615cdfb | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xbcec35df879043d808cf92cac54f859297f0c6c227bc67c4fc69e79b632f76e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21?
Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | 68,347,077 | 68,347,077 |
d51280345d24b519b4dddf284630ab4231c8c0b6 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xde4a00e17e4e08b5c4ef1e5c03c6883b4d40c06959439778ba19635fb16c65be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wi... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14? | 69,107,036 | 69,107,036 |
ff64834d1f362e2ff8d86e5c8a050f0896cb7581 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xf0f0702539d88e8f5496570a7ffc02d1536bffa53b1285883437d45ae919f1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? | 69,107,036 | 69,107,036 |
e99e1964723a6afe6086179203293ed8f32d0e59 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xcc5a6f6c4416909e7f329d848fc19203ac8b37909e8f1f1acc9aa437477998a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | australia-grand-prix-winner | Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? | 69,124,047 | 69,124,047 |
0df88ea62632e4b8abdcb304d345655f7b57d80a | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0x29365b0b3f911d775bacd1710fb4f8e41f78fb2735c733d3b5688428359a791e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | f1-china-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Sauber have the highest Constructor score at the Chinese GP? | 69,447,424 | 69,447,424 |
9f9e83e24f25c44d39b95970e60e1db794025c32 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xfb239c3f5a7b28c218506250941025a23cd73da99ee994ee31a1dd181e73e2b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | f1-china-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Chinese GP? | 69,447,424 | 69,447,424 |
1f0e3694eb33872b7f97e5acda54f7790fc09e8d | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xbccb2214a4ff3dcf8771db902a3098fcedebce1f8a699d8b2098d630618b1742 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? | 70,600,051 | 70,600,051 |
b9597ec05796fc2ec7849607a97afcfc7d58bbff | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xaee36f144391bf4b2e01f5d2a9549097929c21f7a66f07d5431f0764aa510276 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on April 22? | 70,619,509 | 70,619,509 |
5231c8bda7bde068a600910cb61e6d0d53ac0191 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0x8a1df6477891e2930b016ea88fe751068d08686e8eef82bae1542fef9e7e667d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25? | 70,638,780 | 70,638,780 |
9ceadd46ec22729181e0b8407a5b6ef7d08d0f9c | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0x6e218e6b9454bd6179075a9598827c49bcbad7146a786d909a02a5017b075cdf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? | 70,660,530 | 70,660,530 |
79ac2b94fa4bab9089a1d0c8fb9e6d82b82ef999 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0x244c75b2c6095b2e67699c10d0c6548d757d58a1ffea32ad6882c9a389803bd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 71,648,748 | 71,648,748 |
ca857749e2204874c282afe1cbb249594b68116d | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | yes | 1 | next-prime-minster-of-canada | Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | 71,648,748 | 71,648,748 |
ee5a3d0ff645aeb57b5ed28871c479788f170865 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xe3d18ae47bcbebe4998b7327418be044a23742fd37ae6673fb31cb0188c1a5d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | miami-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 Miami GP pole? | 71,648,748 | 71,648,748 |
9ca2f41c236c2cf6cf46a0d1a1edf23abd36fb10 | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0xf9d537d6464076cc703f8f874cc74dabfd1144078d26333cd1fd92142e1112eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | miami-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Nico Hülkenberg win the 2025 Miami GP pole? | 71,648,748 | 71,648,748 |
654018e80288a5fec7332e9b06cf426c5cbab09c | 0x145e92b010604167b679eb8da944150609fc2d67 | 0x5a202b7f0163af31e2694878dc802b0aaa725cbb9ca7e01a4de540e16e977a8c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Event: who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | 73,086,378 | 73,086,378 |
0b79ad9e86c5787029182cc10f9229e0babf1b64 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x9e4f0aaccbd8f10b8153179103f4cf8697c596f2ba1542a5ff47653eaf218e36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13?
Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | 76,439,707 | 76,439,707 |
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