sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
699a88374fdb01c6b5aef491f9666a9ef881833d | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x0c798ad61e5175c56bac958b7a8f4a2d04fb3acba46cf94b9556f913930a1b82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-stade-brestois-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | 63,417,704 | 63,417,704 |
178be1f2d202c58f7c17a9a8ea373d44c7a0a56f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x762ac188de66c7daed5f8473400a8da83bbf3b4cbf1e29489933229bc576b360 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-manchester-city-vs-sparta-praha | Will Sparta Praha beat Manchester City? | 63,417,704 | 63,417,704 |
1f245563f699316e024f8b4d6488ed56cd175e2d | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xf8d61c3af6262c4797b81006d9284bc4f7ae72a6448634051629cd1b0b9e5e2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverpool | Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | 63,417,704 | 63,417,704 |
fe89da9d442d7dbe73641bbcdbc05f129c32849b | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xfe4ce6cb0af9d8f58901bd0a2f073c3cc9b61efc8d56e473ee7da91c4a0e14ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | no | 1 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-manchester-united | Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce? | 63,458,985 | 63,458,985 |
55f3012ca646867b4a5f8c5b4ee1c299574eca71 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x01876ed8ee02399812dc73f8ee9682dd787eb9a53972b4ebaa6f09ca7eee5045 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | 63,539,479 | 63,539,479 |
aa3b16febf39098b268261f98d7a1dbd71b888d9 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x5716e4c94de53509b56e4e6978bf8c75883351a2d142dd46740c49ad109c290f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27? | 63,569,572 | 63,569,572 |
781b627f7b378978f7c824b6503bf21fa2130d79 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xdda364280a69d59c557c13e65a3df3aa4263697d6d7593704848953cc211e26e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | no | 1 | epl-ars-liv-2024-10-27 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-27? | 63,569,572 | 63,569,572 |
0091fc42d49e815cf2af82f5f2b625602790dc8e | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x391b5810c2593346a645bdd5fdc7ce739281e2174295f5f14e559ec1d45bd7f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ars-2024-11-02 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? | 63,887,770 | 63,887,770 |
c57e8b21fcc1e3900c64b4f1c139b476816104fd | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x4c8ca3fc109684a903492305b32d97a5d1934917ede0fcab8c088d5e3bed1c1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | no | 1 | epl-mun-che-2024-11-03 | Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? | 63,887,770 | 63,887,770 |
f655a926dada411b8fdb839a6b52464db3ba3e67 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x973f3a132b52b0b590b3371003d4e32b8dd77159423a3a1331c06aa7d715284f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? | 63,887,770 | 63,887,770 |
741dc3c6307bed5805c92494a1630e0bb4dc2ad0 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xe93ddc043c89be097da98424a93e5ba2f4b2222a5b8b499aac3501dbffc995a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-ast-2024-11-03 | Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? | 63,887,770 | 63,887,770 |
630c1e183b667701f26db476404c533cf024c184 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x4ee46a37c5077f4ab1c9fcd9b0509986641a8d60433ed69579a0c0d161fb9ddb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | ucl-liverpool-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Will Liverpool beat Bayer Leverkusen? | 64,065,595 | 64,065,595 |
fb46a5c0622a349f0b569f7be0ea42b5d58a2e4c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xc6485bb7ea46d7bb89beb9c91e7572ecfc72a6273789496f78bc5e989e4d1638 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 64,065,595 | 64,065,595 |
19f30eea9e294d44a47e661f6902d7251076498c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x03d1d0d81a286acf53b88bcb72129db10eb4d30ea6366a59821c48a24b97b9f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | 64,099,791 | 64,099,791 |
5f397479c2bdd58b1e4a7888d4db5389de69868f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x7b30559109e5a8edb0aea12bf209e7242328d0f650a876dfb39b0d5e5d345160 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | 64,099,791 | 64,099,791 |
88197ee66d801fbe186531ef5ecd8c7e1dcc931c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x02ec657965262158c77881ea43715ddce265d9b40c37a1ae8d2be4ad9e40960a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | 64,289,191 | 64,289,191 |
c29782cb6a408e0b97c3559537d5a1a7bcb1b75b | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x0b5898d1c55fac1d6f6e16cb64cbfa57c8b98079a74a88b70ce927cb26cbe0b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | no | 1 | epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | 64,289,191 | 64,289,191 |
631a9dbff49450acc7c47026bad91cfd552342e6 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x265366ede72d73e137b2b9095a6cdc9be6149290caa295738a95e3d881ad0865 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | 64,289,191 | 64,289,191 |
98965fb90a5bb1317a188efe95fa378dc634e98f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x8a2c3cb71596cf7d30060b285598988d8c3169bc8f5cf99f200595ffb3a80e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | 64,289,191 | 64,289,191 |
a8e20863f8e2850b59736fe4192aad4f1b2640d3 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xbf7aff80b58c93dd0e387fdf0ea8550a7203a6a9b05d10e65bd23dee6dfec0ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10? | 64,289,191 | 64,289,191 |
336e6b90965408dd9c3cf6b0907dbf471f444ed8 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town? | Event: epl-ipswich-town-vs-aston-villa | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | E... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,366,168 | 64,366,168 |
920fe671c69289e2c8433b313e032859ee15d24b | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x9cabea160bfb6661f771e98ffec7ee007cda097e7d799e246a8698312d8890b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-crystal-palace-vs-liverpool-oct-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-manchester-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-10-19? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23? | 64,732,309 | 64,732,309 |
aac983556418e50fbe7b8bb53a87d0cf29704217 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xc72589e2d1adc7052db8c62952b5a689420203104288133aa316d26db0bb1350 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-manchester-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-mun-bre-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-20... | no | 1 | epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-23? | 64,732,309 | 64,732,309 |
429610fcd63167cdb00815cb3f745ae6794951ea | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x26e24df1c16939eb62a8fe3657b069e4aa4a35975935e83be45b3cfc3009be72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-mun-bre-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-eve-2024-10-19 | Choi... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | 64,732,314 | 64,732,314 |
4372573ec44283cbda780a30a2c714e2f6e6275c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x6e402ba5d41722804e206e27bb5a2c4119af38bec52f877d68584f412fbc25df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-ful-ast-2024-10-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-eve-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Ch... | yes | 1 | europa-league-tottenham-vs-as-roma | Will Tottenham beat AS Roma? | 64,858,915 | 64,858,915 |
22e596dffc446fb449273d6e80caddae0fe111ef | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xb0637c0171594f19feef688e7d2e8d70eb8f0c76383a5137bd03948899c93ecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich vs. Everton end in a draw? | Event: epl-ips-eve-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | ... | no | 1 | epl-cry-new-2024-11-30 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-30? | 64,939,271 | 64,939,271 |
701f55a68305fd7de75aaf4cbd21ea2de6204b8e | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xba2dfb6326cd314161d00de46a09ee38528603e9a872e17c166cede77356c290 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? | Event: epl-wol-mac-2024-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-bologna | Choic... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | 64,939,271 | 64,939,271 |
11607479b4506553651052d4e0fc9dfba026b591 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xeedf49438f58b8dbaad3c89ec97a6cd7be30c38b6757c52f812e3909512b949e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19? | Event: epl-bou-ars-2024-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-bologna | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-shakhtar-don... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | 64,939,271 | 64,939,271 |
585075466e920e07f67f00af676dd314101b8181 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x64362e9522741782f6bdc4c7953c599977438b519a7f784d8a40e11abf855c3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-aston-villa-vs-bologna | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | Event: ucl-sta... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? | 65,010,760 | 65,010,760 |
ffd12d844d1a4b794e1c2708b5c5cb7c92dfe274 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x6b326acfd92e249ff13165fb716ce81476ebe98497283a783a73b5e426470606 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Arsenal? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-shakhtar-donetsk | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Manchester C... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | 65,010,760 | 65,010,760 |
27a9ffd2786938d304216d3c05141126a7e43823 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xcc4967c95c90fa7138b5197a27a2748c3432191783de2f8b4021212c80548dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Stade Brestois? | Event: ucl-stade-brestois-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Manchester City? | Event: ucl-manchester-city-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leip... | no | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | 65,010,760 | 65,010,760 |
bce188f0058f110185e8710ca81e3f6902e1a074 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xd2952122167b52b324a4019d29482f43a9c09229dca692be86e10972bcf05fbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sparta Praha beat Manchester City? | Event: ucl-manchester-city-vs-sparta-praha | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce? | Event: ... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-eve-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | 65,010,760 | 65,010,760 |
8027c83e7df0e0ffef6d524408baa31a5cfb5df7 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x7b4021db1a35b8d84c3f56054a170c791287823d8fc0afe7c4f260bc0293bf80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat RB Leipzig? | Event: ucl-rb-leipzig-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce? | Event: europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-manchester-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | Event: e... | no | 1 | epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03? | 65,055,771 | 65,055,771 |
5914ea470d1219315648dee2165a7671fefbc1c7 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x307e2fffe64bae2836d4708f90e433b40af04078ea4320bba18319c1a4880cee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce? | Event: europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-manchester-united | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-ch... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | 65,123,662 | 65,123,662 |
ccee1c530442037f6ef30cd6f999aaf6dcd5e452 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x64632390f51d5933e0ba653563d38f04931e75253dcb011365d2d4a95523f01c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-10-26? | Event: epl-ast-bou-2024-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-ars-liv-2024-10-27 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | 65,123,662 | 65,123,662 |
ed0b58a6f63e22722d2c6e59436f987470ae5b35 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xceb440407d63ee39eba0721c3e7fc5294dd62e2ac34e61763fb39598a19e884c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-che-new-2024-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-ars-liv-2024-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-new-ars-2024-11-02 | Choice: ye... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-04? | 65,123,662 | 65,123,662 |
49c4e1348d54d2797a1fe332787704bed1124f8d | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xd226783f2690b9b6799586ac42b88e5b3fbc0a7385eaa2e833d50e1270876482 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-27? | Event: epl-ars-liv-2024-10-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-new-ars-2024-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? | Event: epl-mun-che-2024-11-03 | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | 65,123,662 | 65,123,662 |
eddf77a7d7fe57b4b217bd2c0044391ef00bbd31 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x7feafa3f1f156980a734def137e086071e02dee8a1567a53ea5e02597477e3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-new-ars-2024-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? | Event: epl-mun-che-2024-11-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Choice: y... | no | 1 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | 65,179,837 | 65,179,837 |
532a53b3dae78b4f0a82b2f554abebb4b8edd052 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xfd8167b6e1bd8189de282d81341af6028cdf6b51f3f04fa1a6bd62b38fd6b74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? | Event: epl-mun-che-2024-11-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? | Event: epl-tot-ast-2024-11-03 | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | 65,179,837 | 65,179,837 |
4fa6db0cb25da26d990a83f8b5e2c04b48bdfcc2 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x1480066b72000b1204a04a40b033a7c94819bbf90263a865bbe007e7a1fefb61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? | Event: epl-bou-mac-2024-11-02 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? | Event: epl-tot-ast-2024-11-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-bayer-leverk... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? | 65,284,844 | 65,284,844 |
f4ad6595e535ee3e7559b165f06cfe7f55df4ae7 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x53d67612608ce8063fd1504a60f3b43d763a82cc17e87c1d1200a96c50e53669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? | Event: epl-tot-ast-2024-11-03 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | ... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-bri-2024-12-08 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | 65,284,844 | 65,284,844 |
90bd154d06f2c8cf30399b357e962a761933f3c5 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x6aaee11bbe1b2c44ce3ef9de097489f1ec08ac676a41e9b68de00b77d7d8b5f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-liverpool-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-new-2024-12-07 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? | 65,284,844 | 65,284,844 |
141400f9d799c6d4f8c06f6a1b3bb2735b56c924 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xa6ed954e535c70952bce0c0bd35f2169f04793e6b5eb0178b527e4e75f68044f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Event: presidential-election-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | E... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | 65,284,844 | 65,284,844 |
6482e7fcd98b341774362d79c6c7bef4b530a653 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xf78abfc43175aa33233ae44899b15dfc7ae461047dc1961f4d578bd23f439749 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | 65,284,844 | 65,284,844 |
6cda269e14002d59fe16c9f1f8dc62db28d17930 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x1ca9d58d35f1f635c2ef7570841b1065e79e4e99ee4d146988bf46faea41871b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man City win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | world-chess-championship-game-13 | Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | 65,378,500 | 65,378,500 |
c44b3f8f797f265e1f19d3697870db4be1aad587 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x48e738f20907d3c5e0f5ce6f8b54c199ef5477edef01e24b706721fcfa63355c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-... | no | 1 | ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | 65,378,500 | 65,378,500 |
1e114fa848a8fa83ea21da56a70042987bf6428c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x455b3c41f73c0fffee913c8aa5b67e5ba9cf3651d2f2cac746388e7ddf191f30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-... | no | 1 | epl-liv-ful-2024-12-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-14? | 65,494,243 | 65,494,243 |
6f58defcb9e9a85d60dd508e56b5abb294efb11c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xef3c1e6e027005f2254823c89d7d0274a5970b34f60d048646db51436be27706 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Event: presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl... | yes | 1 | epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-14? | 65,494,243 | 65,494,243 |
1cad29fb37cc742b4a3752f4253bbb47a41bcf3e | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xfafebf74590538c2a145609240bbba810d491b742cb02a816b38ef5f6c9eec1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-pau... | no | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | 65,580,190 | 65,580,190 |
09ba756db5579375e2959275967701ca3ad6be60 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x663a38f08261f801ab1b47670625eae330157ba81be0ed9a534e32a01ed77f52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11... | no | 1 | epl-bre-not-2024-12-21 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-21? | 65,779,968 | 65,779,968 |
94817b33f4b59955c882f8c0d9239583c0924a6e | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x69fba444b24e6987a4447bad066314ea69521a4692c5e02685e009c379f514b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 202... | no | 1 | epl-ips-new-2024-12-21 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-21? | 65,779,968 | 65,779,968 |
795c70285ae471dfff7719a4f96739c90345a9a0 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xa2610270667f42e7f7c006a28d6cfa01ac9e0214c481df706560cb6dc0de9c25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ars-not-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 ... | no | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2024-12-21 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | 65,779,968 | 65,779,968 |
aa333cc00679196f594a48972879fb123212f550 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x0322883fc9a40a02562b3022628b10616a3219ce0196612303834e785bcec354 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-bou-bri-2024-11-23 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham beat AS Roma? | Event: europa-league-tottenham-vs-as-roma |... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | 65,917,005 | 65,917,005 |
418a18c0c85ac2cf1c08b7c40a2dd5eff8abf4d8 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x790f4b801395e2238c6d8563d1c0465f273954f4924718c3e80678642ba46b31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Villa win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-ast-cry-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham beat AS Roma? | Event: europa-league-tottenham-vs-as-roma | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-cry-new-2024-11-... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | 65,917,005 | 65,917,005 |
2ddc19c10a99bff68fbd90d74d746b352eaafa86 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xa007f6c22fa1cf1c54ccb0a485e4b168dc7df63a7ecbab195ac0763712f37adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham beat AS Roma? | Event: europa-league-tottenham-vs-as-roma | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-cry-new-2024-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | 65,917,005 | 65,917,005 |
75f90fe3369a8f3f9b649487cfe010f589dc0501 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x5d6af2454c799de67232dcd3e06ba217fe49424e2cfbe67a7b5ca31779e20247 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-cry-new-2024-11-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | 66,002,177 | 66,002,177 |
5e1b7ea3411278973d1fd213e348789854fc6b49 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xe11dc5c6006cf0b449ee63e2fb656eda08e790b86b137748d006bb1dd3b4fd17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29? | Event: epl-bri-sou-2024-11-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-26? | 66,002,177 | 66,002,177 |
c873a664b0dc8da2e97b76fbc56eb450696d3230 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xe922b686ebf704b3e5ed74bc7a6e7a977def9cc0e52e900ed10fe5e7f6e54c44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice:... | no | 1 | epl-bri-bre-2024-12-27 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-27? | 66,036,208 | 66,036,208 |
a39b9b4ce9e5622ab0f99286adc0066fd48aa986 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x8b32f12e9d1ed37d7e744ef843c3b0c479e7a0ead85982611e6a1e489685df2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-che-ast-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 |... | no | 1 | epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | 66,089,238 | 66,089,238 |
acd6f44adccd1766f452af925354518ea612eea6 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x981e51884c20c7c89386c68c9094fbcbc1f4e694d750257cd6c77d3b6e3bd8a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-mun-eve-202... | no | 1 | epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-30? | 66,147,770 | 66,147,770 |
588e065279edacc4796f8df752ec27485c31b183 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xa776a7c2556d6af1e1cb825ed27e4db012b12964778c0aec99215aaaff7480e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-mun-eve-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cr... | no | 1 | epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? | 66,300,630 | 66,300,630 |
4069c0c36bd9dbcda4ea8f18679315b94f7aaf7f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x4c73b5d03913904f64baa213cf4ba49d029f063535c5588e9f9a93933c41ab6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-mun-eve-2024-12-01 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-che-2025-01-04 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? | 66,321,820 | 66,321,820 |
c30f9a20cc53ace814240b884b39ef4216c9be93 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x651c35b6bb1e812e616b8d286f57b09efd6e5b125dda48740f9172a41c5254d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-03? | Event: epl-ips-cry-2024-12-03 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Cho... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | 66,321,820 | 66,321,820 |
c5c034fa8389eec59b17787bdf1cbfd46e739353 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x3b6f9935ca0abb591f1184b390ca1df2ca71d6a8946ad9d7dcb255d7cdf12795 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-sou-che-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | ... | no | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-01-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? | 66,780,289 | 66,780,289 |
9c389f467ed11b5c59fc05a6a072756767ac902f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x55917131502ac2a14e686f1a1b660811983043f1b9e96a3c6b57729357cf0201 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-eve-wol-2024-12-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 ... | no | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? | 66,780,289 | 66,780,289 |
49c5b92756eb7e50674a1799a997eea194bd93c4 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x8c19f24cbc7c3abad8374594556ae9da71427b35a62f37124995b9dbd07825fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 ... | no | 1 | epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? | 66,780,289 | 66,780,289 |
766280a760cedb78d4c2b4016c7b1b4fbb5502c8 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xb59ea00e225c7ce5d7aaf950fa1af3ebe1485e13b16e1e59510383a70d5ccd97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-new-liv-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choic... | no | 1 | epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Will Everton win on 2025-01-15? | 66,780,289 | 66,780,289 |
117c3dd14608583009cd2aebd4415b96df9844bd | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x540823c537d86540cef8865f7d0e41335ff1fa81f6b58c4e977047ba175f1cd3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 ... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-sou-2025-01-16 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16? | 66,992,204 | 66,992,204 |
2fb31bf9257a1ab4c831fad1756715cdd4e82f67 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x0d27cebd0a2e2cc1bfc1611a95a2898b69c3e17319e58e3a528d05bea3a1053a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | Event: epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-lei-bri-2024-12-... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-ars-2025-01-25 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-25? | 67,156,375 | 67,156,375 |
45fecfbfd3ef2fe3ea1ecaf01f9358b4087682e9 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x617e2bece1991b65ca149e92479e87ea1d12b523cf9c6f845e81eb041b30d5d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-mun-not-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-lei-bri-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-bre-new-2024-12-0... | no | 1 | epl-mac-che-2025-01-25 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25? | 67,156,375 | 67,156,375 |
f50222c979fed5b8b727a7f7d76ef21c70cd6352 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xd5d78bf6c2d33aac6ccbd2b7230a2cabae46ef72349164f699e6aba82d43dc63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-lei-bri-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-bre-new-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice... | no | 1 | ucl-arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? | 67,156,375 | 67,156,375 |
46c2d35611f0995f2efe1a60407e6d162fb957e3 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xec11f57e051dc7bda1343a72de189dc22d04b2a8314844aca7b2d0760b86882b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-bre-new-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 |... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-eve-2025-01-25 | Will Brighton win on 2025-01-25? | 67,156,375 | 67,156,375 |
ac9c9ea71f9510efeb7f7493460970362cad3fcb | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x0b90f0610910a301ec9530891dd5dab83c0bd52abe32d433d316b0c2354e59db | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | Event: epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-ast-2025-02-01 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01? | 67,695,743 | 67,695,743 |
61da0a41b51b224c6dc559e73f81974584c5fb01 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x42f84d28c6a4b69882131da7240e1f158e51c7f8663bde1cc03b551746ddf96a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-cry-mac-2024-12-07 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juv... | no | 1 | epl-bou-liv-2025-02-01 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-01? | 67,695,743 | 67,695,743 |
7602ae78eec69f20a4efe094a50ac427d3682e5f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x640c5e024c631fb7da6fc7bb243e83c15128b95efd7fa2715648309edbcd0072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Game 13 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 202... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-lei-2025-02-01 | Will Everton win on 2025-02-01? | 67,695,743 | 67,695,743 |
0df8f48c467603cf3a0736405fae354a5de80f70 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x7c4090e0157eef79550ebba7d47b5b3a4b53fda4f27fabe52352bed25ff7d6bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | Event: ucl-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-liv-ful-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-wes-2025-01-26 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-26? | 67,695,743 | 67,695,743 |
214d5d39adaf106523214f63987726d6b071757c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xf7d583c15372d6b622956498323084eb42587f77d144728fd208990647ca2a82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-liv-ful-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-1... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-mun-2025-01-26 | Will Fulham win on 2025-01-26? | 67,695,743 | 67,695,743 |
6a0f4eceb954010d57e2db5bccd0a80a06a46a48 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x491cb0ee1e9aded594ad5be7eafd05ca4161c80b12eed18a09b2bfa38e2e6fcd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-not-ast-2024-12-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-bre-not-2... | no | 1 | ucl-mac-rma-2025-02-11 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? | 67,925,127 | 67,925,127 |
a0e31a4ba31e09fa7664ca064867a86def08647a | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x091c9ba6be983927ca49945c8c56b4b11f58eef7608a36e883d540787f2faee9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-mac-mun-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-bre-not-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-ips-new-2024... | no | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-02-23 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-23? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
274a2418dbf56f87c53daa88501bd39aff740d59 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x34595ad04e90b47128a056647afb60ebfb5e197f54d7703dfd4d25c2b6adf117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-bre-not-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-ips-new-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2024... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-cry-2025-02-22 | Will Fulham win on 2025-02-22? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
a3e6c45dfd706be3eb3d8eb29887ac502dc27b65 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x68cdc6ecb472e3e30dce16699e4f9dacfc584f5f5e0102de8aa034594b134b66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-ips-new-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 |... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-bre-2025-02-21 | Will Brentford win on 2025-02-21? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
15a4d2a02beed4b001c423c9928238a37f4afd0b | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x6b0d1a56707de07ffe5304ac435d9043533634ef26c8254a2619eede2b44c7d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | Event: epl-ast-mac-2024-12-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | C... | no | 1 | epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Will Brighton win on 2025-02-14? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
fd39a80d8373e85089ad80a5feef10b127cdb70c | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x7b79751da7edd6a199d60d707f873573de54f43bd19d394cd7e9212f7f2b50ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-tot-liv-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: ... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-wol-2025-02-22 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-22? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
60f18c24559085c14c0fe2988a578d5a09d34e9a | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x829145967f90fbf0f701097326a97e9f059455b964e1f14dd2a8b3a6b3325450 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-ful-sou-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Ch... | no | 1 | epl-ast-che-2025-02-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-22? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
1d2ce5dce6e57b82f4936d5d8e536135ac24a8d4 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xb396e213a8e9554d6a82d1438f7e2baf2256d6d6607f4b2e6aa17cb78b18d2c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-tot-2025-02-22 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-22? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
0fa2e2a9435dc9f7c23398f9ea842f5bd1e99b59 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xb4624d65f07d143fa99f976d874793767e71a230b93011f650cea9a98aca8c32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-mac-eve-2024-12-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-27? | Event: epl-bri-bre-2024-12-27 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-bri-2025-02-22 | Will Brighton win on 2025-02-22? | 68,381,542 | 68,381,542 |
28043fa8c9e117f1049ab90c15c9f8da5181c952 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x3a998cf76a73e7701069d35572a9c36a90fde6a15fca12ed6600f6c70654551a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-26? | Event: epl-not-tot-2024-12-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-27? | Event: epl-bri-bre-2024-12-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | epl-tot-mac-2025-02-26 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26? | 68,446,176 | 68,446,176 |
49a7b40647909c0f5656bdf498f4763016956fcb | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x94c8411e32d3e62ea3094a6b7df7ff84bca85d27a9b50a0ddc52f8bac04b342c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-12-27? | Event: epl-bri-bre-2024-12-27 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | ... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-new-2025-02-26 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? | 68,446,176 | 68,446,176 |
4d392bd0dfd07ce5b8899b5f4e692bc35fa83277 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xb6fd27f5f8fb1a02f4ed1824ed9b0db2b5102d577a9ec4881de024b4c0ab1d71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-12-29? | Event: epl-eve-not-2024-12-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? | Event: epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ips-2025-02-26 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26? | 68,446,176 | 68,446,176 |
c1845222910da057fd085ca82bbd9387c6850243 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xaa4dc9f168a759956fac480d489aa7027d899d2ce22e44c98c90ae4cc23a9fa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-30? | Event: epl-mun-new-2024-12-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? | Event: epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-cry-che-2025-01-04 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-lei-2025-02-27 | Will West Ham win on 2025-02-27? | 68,648,066 | 68,648,066 |
d750370bb8d3950ac4700325e33fa6a9722d6004 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xce56c5077a15ca8367aa1975fd506c91d3093a334a728ad6254c60dca3ba317c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? | Event: epl-bre-ars-2025-01-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-cry-che-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Choice... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-ars-2025-03-04 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? | 68,681,011 | 68,681,011 |
49df734e82a5bcb8cc4fd998e8c732d9388ae640 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x0d282c849c5cdb0a4b68064fdfed69765a61e88d5fc3b04269fc5e01677add9d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-cry-che-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-01-14... | yes | 1 | ucl-ben-bar-2025-03-05 | Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? | 68,701,250 | 68,701,250 |
f88a6388e9e38ca934da6f6f7b661e1dc91aaf44 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xa60691341da78992d359a056e980994d290bf5964c2bac4d076c1cbbd5b871ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bou-eve-2025-01-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-01-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-not-liv-2025-01-1... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-liv-2025-03-05 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-03-05? | 68,701,250 | 68,701,250 |
04972f34873fc373b7d944dbd75e0a8527cff290 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x013cba1ca8038a3b00b0d010cb51008ba6b857335cfb3d2b88cdb70643527b77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-bre-mac-2025-01-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ips-2025-03-08 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-03-08? | 68,861,555 | 68,861,555 |
bd8046f0d08ac858adf13690b2a2c7daa1840373 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x3e98be75c830cd006191edc4a057ff57f3595c9bd9c404bbca02e1b7ee2403e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-03-08 | Will Wolves win on 2025-03-08? | 68,861,555 | 68,861,555 |
9f802b47f5978ce6405aa8e1db0db48f4056ca76 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0x6d17971cfea990442802982408a4fbcf181f550bdad95aed07dd002b00d74dcb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-ars-tot-2025-01-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16? | Event: epl-mun-sou-2025-01-16 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-ars-2025-03-09 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09? | 68,861,555 | 68,861,555 |
3c2f50a3055ef64ead6e848f6f2d6f01b1896728 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xc940cea9e91e00e96b30ed1665be5a308798c0e14a695b70431d33328ffa67cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2025-01-15? | Event: epl-eve-ast-2025-01-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16? | Event: epl-mun-sou-2025-01-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-wol-ars-2025-01-25 | ... | no | 1 | epl-tot-bou-2025-03-09 | Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-09? | 68,861,555 | 68,861,555 |
43d0a86b2c37f638de530aac31ce2a6a81fc663f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xcaba2507c8ce55330e8069c0f7631e56909ef5c9ac06a3e561ab615115c992d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16? | Event: epl-mun-sou-2025-01-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-wol-ars-2025-01-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-mac-che-2025... | no | 1 | epl-not-mac-2025-03-08 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? | 68,861,555 | 68,861,555 |
7413607fd5694c08b3ab8a33431122698e8fb521 | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xf74891c9ef987b6f69a19404b4f66cb4cf0bff59f10d75eea5e801ae3b1fb42c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-wol-ars-2025-01-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-mac-che-2025-01-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagr... | no | 1 | epl-bre-ast-2025-03-08 | Will Brentford win on 2025-03-08? | 68,861,555 | 68,861,555 |
b8eb6f210fc97cd366219074ef56c77549004d0f | 0x141371c328fd3bbb45c44d411e1289aa41ad4bdd | 0xabaeac8799d12447add1a704fa408f35bd6c52ab195d60235eedf522ff5463e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-mac-che-2025-01-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Dinamo Zagreb? | Event: ucl-arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagreb | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-25? | Event: epl-bri-eve-2025-01-... | no | 1 | epl-wes-new-2025-03-10 | Will West Ham win on 2025-03-10? | 69,066,153 | 69,066,153 |
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