sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a1bb28116f8659211fb0fe2ff552b0eb7b17708d | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xc227a7d10424cff68defef3dce8e482413f4da8733a5b9ba6fedc223fc6bf46f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision?
Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target mar... | yes | 1 | boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | 76,439,718 | 76,439,718 |
e182f62f00b796397e8e97d48d22cbf275a22f43 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x89a7de362065efcd548bcfed63379f93ca43737d7fb88fcebcef01415b6df326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Espanyol... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-mal-2025-09-15 | Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-15? | 76,501,193 | 76,501,193 |
97196c88413ae42cb8324ee2f4f72d164ec8b6d3 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xcda4879c842ada3aad0ce09563cd6397e02aa4cf623654bb702d8d311640a2f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | sea-com-gen-2025-09-15 | Will Como win on 2025-09-15? | 76,501,193 | 76,501,193 |
ce34db5aa75c333e5acca4265da05b09868e0cb8 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xf7024c6dabba3863f8cff51725a6f479bf0914c97d3ed9997a7dc5b733436087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-psv-gil-2025-09-16 | Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-09-16? | 76,535,576 | 76,535,576 |
d3e27aa2a72523b8ff8f733e33120426451d63b5 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xd3a719f6ee26e1f0955ab5446372cb034420544eb8f36d1553b773f663c8ae38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-juv-dor-2025-09-16 | Will Juventus win on 2025-09-16? | 76,540,181 | 76,540,181 |
9e5662494eaed6280c81115c4fb2092b945f70f1 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x15115478a64fbe5910f338dd6fcfcf059f2164477f0dffc8d712fc0b12a99c7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-kob-b04-2025-09-18 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-18? | 76,617,440 | 76,617,440 |
fbc277002302edd3eeb217471dadce5b0534adfc | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x3bacb765b4b30303a22bcf1f61372b13363bcd3742c4a72d85ca2c62b2edf49a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-bay-cfc-2025-09-17 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? | 76,693,768 | 76,693,768 |
c42636d5f9290fcb4b831c0e4e2b1930c74af8d5 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x66e15ca030ed4a2d7c62d12b24b20035abd2dcda18f56ae03c3887960c87d595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-spo-kay-2025-09-18 | Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18? | 76,693,768 | 76,693,768 |
657b91a578ac03c7234f5a46f05792b3031981df | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x774c912a1bc4ac49a2416bcd09ffd45e89021f55f82277af6fc6faf765c6616a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | epl-mac-mun-2025-09-14 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? | 76,693,768 | 76,693,768 |
37ad8f75590e51af4436c97858f0904425a212c5 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x7bdfa2d7ae3b82c5e4a06827cb4903c2d2eeeb0fc9a0c433db26e3ea79791c6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | bun-stu-pau-2025-09-19 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-19? | 76,693,768 | 76,693,768 |
84ec77d0a0282e90d788e16eae6ba3f2446500f2 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x938c588686381deb39f3b556914db2cb034a84ed36631b58d6b80b1dbeb1f904 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-bru-mon-2025-09-18 | Will Club Brugge win on 2025-09-18? | 76,693,768 | 76,693,768 |
6827e7e47b1427a8756760d63ce6f74d1807eec8 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xd62a43379a790c695d40bb724c669a87c237aaf7799907d00e14fe7badb573cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-ata-2025-09-17 | Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17? | 76,693,768 | 76,693,768 |
c50e2c389083c753ac8f4c170a2bec0f3f999395 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xe2e0d8ef2d436c26db73d82dff9f62dcdf392d27c3cf7535a450cbe1b9d65cd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | mls-mia-sea-2025-09-16 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-09-16? | 76,693,768 | 76,693,768 |
b7207b142e3fe412bdc981351c88913f95b713ed | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x6b627c1a38a2ea5faebe74ad89857b14020ceb89ea9131978a216807be71c4b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | sea-ver-cre-2025-09-15 | Will US Cremonese win on 2025-09-15? | 76,693,769 | 76,693,769 |
34accdf95bde0d60a5990a22cb7aad6d00d38d62 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xc57c48ea08192107f7981b041ba115663b3d14935ea4315337a5e64351ddfa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-ath-ars-2025-09-16 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? | 76,693,769 | 76,693,769 |
d707562b4539996bb2454c7bd3f78a5ce0ffa3c1 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x8095b21ecc172779d0ed0c3aa0d24b90d866db0ea16fe94c536c769218086b3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | fl1-olm-psg-2025-09-21 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21? | 77,063,484 | 77,063,484 |
3ba571f2c4b719b786125f17cfa2dc2c5a11c457 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x9f49a004c854ada068c1ffe4cdd189433b698d258e2cb7f357f3e5b7203e6936 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? | 77,063,484 | 77,063,484 |
b9cc45e1ff2b13563260dc0dd71442f10e9ebc86 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xbf870b3e94201dc40752203336e8cc9894dda68e53f39cefed2c01e971fc2f75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-bou-2025-09-27 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-27? | 77,063,484 | 77,063,484 |
ecbf77f9e72c1cb65b4b239d6ef700113e4930e2 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xcfbab87fa04925b8db7c8768535514e6b4cddfb4e7d3a372f7f51cd73d4f29ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | tur-fen-gal-2025-12-01 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-12-01? | 79,762,107 | 79,762,107 |
74b6a859a7fbdd4f29d17f2b879f32ac81a35d62 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x68bea4ddcd459f0ae93cca6667011f98ea9c532ff3d8977300ef4315826e0e23 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-dor-ath-2025-10-01 | Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? | 79,771,035 | 79,771,035 |
1c8c9780b87624ea69a85ce06aa750e02f939f52 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xc7badca7470be581bf9e07c7d538f1b6fd30a952b1ef8b9bbfd6dbcd2f033a99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-mnc-bvb-2025-11-05 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? | 79,771,035 | 79,771,035 |
dc2d1fc4ab3a4d3291e8d4f908558beff3338263 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xd8b6ce3386f6e872d3ff0f43faf66a4aff852d131b59d0d07c86314abb1efe83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-ata-bru-2025-09-30 | Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-30? | 79,771,035 | 79,771,035 |
16d46c987c22991b195f6acd7419aaacfc310927 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0xf077d895d645e5d31864c4d2369031c26f7132957b02fdc080570cd57f33f70c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | no | 1 | ucl-gil-new-2025-10-01 | Will Newcastle United win on 2025-10-01? | 79,771,035 | 79,771,035 |
45dcf1287ac9d0164143e8c161432ab2ba5cd676 | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x0f73b424304e149c9977c06e889a24cd2c0c1d15b16e3dde54b2667a6bd87429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-bod-tot-2025-09-30 | Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30? | 79,771,036 | 79,771,036 |
425690867d5db1520ee709829046b990c5d62b7d | 0x146703a8a73ae1dff0f84ba44c45d878858a4372 | 0x203cf33dde0cb736b45a8d6a67de4455a70abaeb6824dc6ba38a2636e986d117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-13? | Event: lal-bil-ala-2025-09-13 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Boxing: Will Terence Crawford win by Points or Decision? | Event: boxing-canelo-vs-crawford-winning-method | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Espanyol win on 2025-... | yes | 1 | ucl-kar-kob-2025-10-01 | Will FC Kopenhagen win on 2025-10-01? | 79,771,036 | 79,771,036 |
b88965b30d03d47d4a247a28cad54f4e345f2938 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
Event: belarus-presidential-election
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | belarus-presidential-election | Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | 67,478,004 | 67,478,004 |
3d48cb4ff23cb7ca7947b5b545f32d118b4fa2ff | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xb5a58b3db0100e1b6268eafa0664e6a1a39772920efb2c767c06b003479aaa54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25
Predict the user's choice and confidence for ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | 74,418,241 | 74,418,241 |
e59174b4e7a331282161bbcb2c3a06c4fdda2a11 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xea0c5367499cecb3057c1423f26ce93d74c9aa64106462b6e672f98bbb6bf4b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question:... | yes | 1 | lal-ovi-rea-2025-08-24 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24? | 75,646,781 | 75,646,781 |
fe057c391210dcf7f75ca647dcb12f18d4f5c06a | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xd60c9a52d1d415945c5576ff4227304a0b76496f2a38dff55a84623f976499ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 0.026678 | sea-udi-ver-2025-08-25 | Will Udinese vs. Verona end in a draw? | 75,667,284 | 75,667,284 |
322c123be9cedc20f12bd38bcc553c3a53d9bf91 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xf367118b7df034eb7837d1a72f8335a66d684aaef5d698f3fdf301791c915783 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ray-2025-08-25 | Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-25? | 75,667,284 | 75,667,284 |
8145178e08f55c0f397959fe6099261343c93aca | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x1d803b27eaf949abf4683b7f3807f66725cf9fc7e60a5a57710ccc48b535e392 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | ucl-kay-cel-2025-08-26 | Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Celtic end in a draw? | 75,729,148 | 75,729,148 |
d956425a14ef474d803c5792469ac96ebe8442d1 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x425d988ea7563e8485191578305794e1b447d611e79e3850bc87f1614f0ff9bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | lal-rea-mal-2025-08-30 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-30? | 75,883,838 | 75,883,838 |
4c6f7aebc2b06976af2b3e8c06a06d65fbd96582 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xb5a646e21b4d8603d524393a2a935cc9fe738bc688bc04ac4aab0d11f4e79e75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ars-2025-08-31 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31? | 76,139,294 | 76,139,294 |
cda16e04cb9ec7e26702d5ca16973f9d5c239c9e | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x8c5927af2b98879999712a217d1ff65d34c13ebadcb619007e4852ea76a7845c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | ucl-rma-olm-2025-09-16 | Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? | 76,607,933 | 76,607,933 |
12b6c1f756763f18d9882fb5c825ea9aeb7c2838 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x30466cfb32f3a8fc811e04c0aa6d7480501db55a0d9ea772f0d48ddfb8ea92b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | epl-wes-cry-2025-09-20 | Will West Ham win on 2025-09-20? | 76,724,608 | 76,724,608 |
56e0e450b5b6939b61fa2f7f077acba3f90c5e00 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xfc8bb0a055437bf1caf8fe97cb3b2f8e2bb6b05a1e79dc12c75f7d08abf519b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-liv-2025-09-27 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27? | 76,986,932 | 76,986,932 |
c170bf166183aa2f780282fdf1c197058e99c22b | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xfe8cbe6d6305bc0a3d965c8e7b517b8a68613e8ced2ffb7d7d5f39bdecb60277 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | lal-val-ovi-2025-09-29 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-09-29? | 77,112,446 | 77,112,446 |
86faa78e6d3c625310d62075550112f8afa23475 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x9b93c9559a55ea1dd4e188c5f97ab88d18da2faca055d1bce4726d28f8d524c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-october-14 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $270 on October 14? | 77,753,067 | 77,753,067 |
cb691cb421bb720c7a4940fac3f0df1ff5e725d5 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x0eb1bd2515653f038ed51e05a473a0dad2e5ec94b7f5cb92384f8bb8728cfe70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | lal-get-rea-2025-10-19 | Will Getafe win on 2025-10-19? | 77,936,671 | 77,936,671 |
fea7dc550a098c937a124e297f654588235fb62e | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xf37093685282cfa1acaaa18b1c9e876eac4b9fee6df83430f84e95a88abb742c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | sea-rom-int-2025-10-18 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-18? | 77,936,671 | 77,936,671 |
9c4df25d8dce1ef5cae41837698b88db60ef6b95 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x1c95745679413c53267d4969e85d2a666238f25d8238e4c5efbc0c5127776cd6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-26? | 78,237,133 | 78,237,133 |
5c588bdcb06dc5676b35f9547757968552cd8205 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xc10497259535091213da9e94a7804c27ccdec671bba8d3aafe666284ff194cf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27 | Will Gaziantep FK win on 2025-10-27? | 78,305,095 | 78,305,095 |
670742aa581b2244f1c2b133277c62e66edfb8b6 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xc96665c1d75c90385ed4c4250c90c53fed9adf54e8c21952fd5765f0a635aad9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | rus-csk-nov-2025-10-31 | Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-10-31? | 78,606,824 | 78,606,824 |
fa56a1e93ca578421bbd85b355adafd52fbac650 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xac244f7004fde31d2f64c84f4bf8d97d7f077b5bc8a7ee9bc383776d8775b9af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | ucl-aja-gal-2025-11-05 | Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-05? | 78,657,482 | 78,657,482 |
3ddd60f4a4a57af407ef6d9732da5db55a587d79 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0xcf4f19e4acbfa20e80eccbc318e6149f322306aea5a8c22f85d6dc66456a0789 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | uel-ran3-rom1-2025-11-06 | Will Rangers FC win on 2025-11-06? | 78,705,623 | 78,705,623 |
a6e866adb9d717afbfb89640bf51fa8b79d89dba | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x73c4a2061ba60ead5d8dc70743ecef2cdf219feab1384daa6415997a8f2d2a75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-11-07? | 78,735,828 | 78,735,828 |
8b5757083b80c361088dd76674b931b9aab9ec28 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x8ce8b5ff2d85157443846f8d85f10f4cee928ded34203392dfa885d8509152aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | spl-fat-taa-2025-11-07 | Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2025-11-07? | 78,735,828 | 78,735,828 |
aca6d759334eed5fb135be45daab720df59407b2 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x5cdd8be97407120c28e756e2cfdbd18d939400f07e13e3642cd477b91d138bdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | aus-vic-mct-2025-11-08 | Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw? | 78,804,718 | 78,804,718 |
070b97b58bf401e4d2933c78fb2a0170bcdf5f87 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x938e1394347bce94687cf8cc9022a456bc7c8bb3e90e9e0b2c6a83489505a5ed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | sea-rom-udi-2025-11-09 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09? | 78,848,856 | 78,848,856 |
e5fc0defebac61aa0c6fcb544017ed8f267b20eb | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x8aafeddaae9c63e1b0fc7e8c7a3984e440eb44e7937d635c24ac1b67248a1d4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | fif-tha-sin-2025-11-13 | Will Singapore win on 2025-11-13? | 78,999,275 | 78,999,275 |
56a7dca28de9aaa8568f0e7d42f51410855b7cb1 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x9ba741c5fcd86e2b5e55712c5809c75ed91ac3337029860024ba2a755c76c61a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-13 | Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on November 13? | 78,999,275 | 78,999,275 |
d248b1b4db666c58d257971044000ab4a9fd3422 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x15d4477db1e300a0dc9df1f925c6aa8ee09933321e1fc7486ed6e29fce8bc963 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-november-14 | Will the price of Solana be less than $110 on November 14? | 79,080,565 | 79,080,565 |
bd54b20996633da3caf0bb2f5e09b235d5dc6f7d | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x8a257e4449bf9a7e7d6859d0b37084f9dd6ca13994149c5c770f0fcbb5fbe758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | bun-lei-wer-2025-11-23 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-23? | 79,495,778 | 79,495,778 |
1e7d9b29bd7627a32dd9220eb3c71717e2806d84 | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x45e4255ef12064a848de8696e9592f563e228d347e63d3d2626ddd9ff9241d6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | ucl-gal-usg-2025-11-25 | Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2025-11-25? | 79,541,375 | 79,541,375 |
3335729f17d82151aa87c8492d3fc403dd74f4eb | 0x146a5da7a03322873dfaf28e51c974fe2e0f36fa | 0x0b13c27cced708928ca49f045781f1b0abfcc7aef6253371e07f007878dda0f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-18-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Ma... | yes | 1 | ucl-atm1-int-2025-11-26 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-26? | 79,551,405 | 79,551,405 |
1630a3286dca5309cb28a01dab2679d7eae69428 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x11d5e7278cae591fc4b407fffe4f3ec4543f18fdd200775112a29946d1c836b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich?
Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | 64,785,033 | 64,785,033 |
8f18679a96329a67f89b85ff9b0f40795d4b3725 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xcc4967c95c90fa7138b5197a27a2748c3432191783de2f8b4021212c80548dfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01?
Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output... | no | 1 | epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | 64,984,305 | 64,984,305 |
aebdacafa85bb90a8147d2b7df9616bbcadd518f | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xa31fd909f90ad66b6a9339d4a3fddf299b4d720bcd318484bfb7898fa6f532e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City win ... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | 65,105,475 | 65,105,475 |
dd0a15e07fc5275a50c44f21bc5c69dea7c4bbf2 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xa892c638fbe758442d015521459f0886c8245311ee25bcb5b3be5391303fa785 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | epl-ast-sou-2024-12-07 | Will Southampton win on 2024-12-07? | 65,205,662 | 65,205,662 |
78fa6c1ea4a30ca0b4a3faecc9e22a5d900b93f8 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x79df6078f925618abbfb0273d1f2206a80b150d10dffc4144b593e1f9fc7487a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09 | Will Wolves win on 2024-12-09? | 65,300,096 | 65,300,096 |
948ed0439d9b408943046a32f135e0ed3d0ac186 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x2ca7023bfa9fddff54aa481ed2d1a0c819fde3599512619cc560a31a17335ec9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Will Young Boys beat Stuttgart? | 65,381,253 | 65,381,253 |
f7aac06fe4f05ba35d2a504f2e776eabf1d3ebdf | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xa67d754fc43027e67508ab18a46301a5a14b3f83c6f7372f2522f4585059e752 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | ucl-ac-milan-vs-red-star-belgrade | Will Red Star Belgrade beat AC Milan? | 65,381,253 | 65,381,253 |
b907b10cb60aafc41ef211b36133b9bc32fe6ce1 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xe551c89b18580660944670d7cbbfdedd556257410534e8d5f6b0c89b096fd2de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | ucl-benfica-vs-bologna | Will Bologna beat Benfica? | 65,381,253 | 65,381,253 |
6f093bc6b92ea0c887b9a013737d0bfd1d45bdcf | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xe6539776e427bc9273ada6cf3c034b0597772749c55f84ff235fe72786167433 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-athletic-bilbao | Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce? | 65,381,253 | 65,381,253 |
1949a40e6ec4b74cb62896bca18619e3b5500b5c | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x3e4527e34603c4e36965a6cb2a311a3f9b9cfd40d4ab750d5c84b95ea8c5ea70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-14? | 65,485,206 | 65,485,206 |
a26e77ed3ed709ff87e496d65c1424e74d60d253 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xc9a08721fb6a91eb384db0bf5b77fb6401e32aa42f474f89b7dec1b633050637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Will Southampton win on 2024-12-15? | 65,543,548 | 65,543,548 |
ae83b965dbb236365f0aeb917ff321f6e4fe9c39 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x8a3f0d497cabd3ba877482337bf5445885c141d6e6b019e1e721ab51f52c231d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | usyk-vs-fury-2 | Will Fury beat Usyk? | 65,783,318 | 65,783,318 |
bbf51a8ea4c301bce366fc84431008124dc000e7 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xbb156a59cfac832a09a430fffdf3e3e7cf9d49adbe61bbe9070b8459c5af3001 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid | Will Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona? | 65,783,318 | 65,783,318 |
108fc9f73d2eef7569ae924c0ec0efe16648894e | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xf956e916e9e29e8140b7bb5dc9c0a0eba6f85ac8da1e46ab7370772f62a0332c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | usyk-vs-fury-2 | Will Usyk beat Fury? | 65,783,318 | 65,783,318 |
f098fbd06d19062ef7a630629c804c58a39453db | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x8d775ccb11849f1a63ebae7624b52dc3537998e99903e6d7d5522d9068e4e429 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | epl-lei-wol-2024-12-22 | Will Wolves win on 2024-12-22? | 65,802,530 | 65,802,530 |
fee07322e72e22fd5ad6733c80bc99a9f6b0664e | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x4686a434fadd90d57847e3953b00886e77639e01fe071be84dca2a7d721f9455 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 21? | 69,355,968 | 69,355,968 |
38556d5017a9a158327f67026bbf8231cc0c1477 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x1bfe438f0af0198621762cf84785e31e60a9cb2fa3db665067b1fe333651ee18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 28? | 69,619,053 | 69,619,053 |
e638627724b244028e3eb15b223ee48ab47a8d2d | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x3efdbb121319fad1505919b54d4fc15ee3b9286634933a4edfaa4a022a7af1e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28? | 69,619,053 | 69,619,053 |
9c074a597b05a558b6c603441a8f1c3f32056359 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x37e01f7e15e9b61670a026c8ea2654b694419f2f90c4832c189504c249398654 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $82000 on April 4? | 69,923,357 | 69,923,357 |
fe7a34354ff8e342ff85442967a18942757d34ba | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x8d06fb35a075c8272aac53df0f375d255d9b80acfd5130f0678e6d31a1a0d5c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | 70,482,955 | 70,482,955 |
c8bf5bd497386f6c53f2e99519382c8a3b1d8742 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xd486db3c1c51241567dda0326c44fe6208cd82aae6cdaf082cba6fa59764903b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? | 70,482,955 | 70,482,955 |
7b52f315c943b3b1b6f75bc51405ac87377d16a3 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x396cff35d0089be0dd7a31c3dd8893dba91087cb204f36fd596ea8e176c8194f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $89000 on Apr 25? | 70,767,580 | 70,767,580 |
880c8be0897cd0ed7aad6b12734eb39e5bee1d18 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x497d6cf1098ea666aed470ead36e66ab5a9d54ff29cdf6357708a20aa1808e6e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 71,696,760 | 71,696,760 |
779175988910c068e686e0370603eb7d9ce41371 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xde25fb70e4cdc97667cc248721151af1e181b9c1ce0bcaf8a60fe9e934840f78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-may-23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on May 23? | 71,885,290 | 71,885,290 |
553e66ea6c4e9cd0db1ca9886dfe0e50e7513c40 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x9e8423c3a0642e283ebaf940fba1d659d8f68efc1e9098ea5bbcf605edd601d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-0? | 72,546,692 | 72,546,692 |
b8a7110df1d51d9cde7a4932aeebf3d07ab934f0 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x0b9e2c52791b0d64c7a0567fa611a0cb96e2dc0cafa1a9e4cf7efc7c537df38e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-bayern-munich-vs-auckland-city | Will Auckland City beat Bayern Munich? | 72,827,181 | 72,827,181 |
1edd23c83139940b2b34f4543fe5b131745c10a4 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x0498f3fe4edba15bf41c55371411384b612e36f981576ef1e5aa273192d7a239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | 2025-uefa-european-u21-championship-winner | Will Finland win the 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship? | 72,972,740 | 72,972,740 |
3daa4d1860a58dc7ba5feb623cb0ab67e0fcb210 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x19654e4bdfac1664391a2ba7c156990b8a35f4a5f7617508219298584800181b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | 2025-uefa-european-u21-championship-winner | Will Ukraine win the 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship? | 72,972,740 | 72,972,740 |
003c45dc177232ce18af6851d21476c6a9e0d4c3 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x16bcd40739c7096de15f037d3e9dc8151670f3e65e7874a153bb79e392ff000c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Will Benfica beat Auckland City? | 73,020,546 | 73,020,546 |
b259091f9ec78adcc5907ef1669003651079c537 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x13b1a0811217f898768abb27be70b058110548901fd6f0e1e5f773af6b66c747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-mamelodi-vs-dortmund | Will Mamelodi Sundowns beat Borussia Dortmund? | 73,081,595 | 73,081,595 |
306e5049f1ece2df73a94a9776bcd271bc362635 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xcaaa6740bd0d428d1a1d9de24e524a0814aa3d03a77a36774f46c25ce9b8ee63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich? | Event: ucl-bayern-munich-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-milan-vs-urawa | Will Inter Milan beat Urawa Red Diamonds? | 73,081,595 | 73,081,595 |
b8f57447da658b7fbad301820cb94f5577a7c3c4 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x287ec63412982cb6e2ecacfbb851bca69ae9e145e19f185c79e37b905826d470 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01? | Event: epl-liv-mac-2024-12-01 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-ast-sou-202... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-real-madrid-vs-pachuca | Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca? | 73,112,670 | 73,112,670 |
61c8d9bcc3ff4a596c9aa935dcf7aead97b4a0da | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x4851abfc08af8fcbc46bc82b459f09b6293f92fc276bf7afa5d15d74b95cc76a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | Event: epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-ast-sou-2024-12-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09 |... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-psg-vs-seattle-sounders | Will Seattle Sounders beat PSG? | 73,154,002 | 73,154,002 |
c60572879de3485f4a5357c85aec23148ec66a3b | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x7204b3b54e5af0e82772ab9e7d95767c1ad56b02963491e761a92c6d3a7dd38e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-07? | Event: epl-ast-sou-2024-12-07 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Young Boys beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Cho... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-auckland-city-vs-boca-juniors | Will Auckland City beat Boca Juniors? | 73,194,034 | 73,194,034 |
2813517a8c15587ab2e3e9aab13864056dc9b103 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xb8a96a63065cdc6c30ed37a7d54d443e1c6eb67bbd1da6ab32d6ceb08a7d853d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-09? | Event: epl-wes-wol-2024-12-09 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Young Boys beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Red Star Belgrade beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-ac-milan-vs-red-star-b... | no | 1 | 2025-uefa-european-u21-championship-winner | Will France win the 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship? | 73,234,145 | 73,234,145 |
3c2126a426b34f3c885ade78cedb32bfa8e73e63 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xde3ac88d04323c002d642c1768327eebe8c6a5ca5ccf80cf921a08f077fc3a1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Young Boys beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-young-boys | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Red Star Belgrade beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-ac-milan-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bologna beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-benfica-vs-bolo... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-juventus-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Juventus? | 73,273,476 | 73,273,476 |
86a174afa50b4b02bee1d9f307fd88ece264b7d9 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x3c128328e0fd6204067103b10231e04c7f7910f6640dd779e01dd513cd3ba090 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Red Star Belgrade beat AC Milan? | Event: ucl-ac-milan-vs-red-star-belgrade | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bologna beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-benfica-vs-bologna | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce? | Event: europa-league-fene... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,356,788 | 73,356,788 |
c2c3580f7f135fb07f3ed9a47ccc4afaa2465bba | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xf24648fe97998b841b647807d47602f03d700215bc4e9b6ca7b0ee0b181c8402 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bologna beat Benfica? | Event: ucl-benfica-vs-bologna | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce? | Event: europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-athletic-bilbao | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-wol-ips-20... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,394,068 | 73,394,068 |
bf23f38e4105df1d24e56b57502ecd91992a18de | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x00452a432c15eb7c5e51a6053b3818c7e46c2c7fc4a116f7fecdce0fc2bf3ea1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Bilbao beat Fenerbahce? | Event: europa-league-fenerbahce-vs-athletic-bilbao | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-s... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,479,663 | 73,479,663 |
169c294491bbd37b380de36813a49444d74e1a2d | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x3b256b777158a626315d4a3c1f984b823221692be00cabc2f7dd62a0e16068b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-14? | Event: epl-wol-ips-2024-12-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fury beat Usyk? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,597,408 | 73,597,408 |
8797e0e6062f0449a04d3cb4a3e8cc0e9ce824fc | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0xc2b60aa3a0cd08fc5fa35b07dbbb925824921d9f0f3434a6937ccbbbc9e90ea5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Southampton win on 2024-12-15? | Event: epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fury beat Usyk? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid | Choice:... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,632,929 | 73,632,929 |
7501bc8b7247c782cfeac5bc5cefd13bd121f6ef | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x44b1ca894a61baff0924288fcaaecb4bd389a5015dd6c4210529ec523b342a76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fury beat Usyk? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,759,778 | 73,759,778 |
45431b737d37b71d1bbc40b312f9d40e4bb46eb6 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x0baa2db7e4d0ad0f4b6239113b2dfa391b8e1a30895ede4922e5ae7124bbf711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona? | Event: la-liga-barcelona-vs-atletico-madrid | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-lei-wol-2024-12-22 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-exact-score | Will Chelsea win 3-0? | 73,939,429 | 73,939,429 |
0d0f11e0a2bf13c74a78b0a4fc096b537e72aed7 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x1f2a151344de43a19eaf99feebd6fdb268ab111ff59faf5bfb8cfd124778efa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Usyk beat Fury? | Event: usyk-vs-fury-2 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-lei-wol-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-marc... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-chelsea-vs-psg-method-of-win | Will Chelsea win in extra time? | 73,939,429 | 73,939,429 |
903f8ad584d6a3d47ab197ffcad9f60c89d40fd3 | 0x147a7422eb193bc1e827e06929f364583df1cc62 | 0x69bf4f8aa2acb131126f0e552f7b5bf1d1e4de09e9271d7b745da48fb5f6b611 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2024-12-22? | Event: epl-lei-wol-2024-12-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84... | yes | 1 | epl-not-bre-2025-08-17 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? | 75,326,065 | 75,326,065 |
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