sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6a983a11013e9cb670134fe972826e91359060b0 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x48cfd07a635f346d5646144d3676484d30937229047f6de241be38e92d53d663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November? | 79,273,632 | 79,747,479 |
9c06e68eb1e846e02ec745e186f329bd6df99393 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xfbc83db2cd041e0dd6d5c93c4d57b58ae800ca9956845f9cc365f92833399c11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of November? | 79,273,632 | 79,747,479 |
705d7b46775f82a5474d9ad59e317fa763b28068 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x70515e8d7347d6728d587e742576372588fe911cd0faacb41d7f5761d4d98399 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | yes | 0.201693 | nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,273,632 | 79,834,058 |
ebf338c5bb53a736787710cc4b7cc2ea16db8ee8 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xf51811f52b5c4a842999f39f25fd7c949ff1176586291db91529180be1dd1952 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $400? | 79,273,633 | 79,273,633 |
ca3a2a20d1430d791f20e94fd589230322810b10 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x133a2bd76ec7f5f51563c53a51842f2376662c809d037e0386f5af9bd991b884 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $405? | 79,273,633 | 79,339,979 |
11d2dd053190343577fdbd24494405dbf0348c81 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x291521b7c966c1da474a923b1b843b82660c28d00626452e7a50ca0808d7bab4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $170? | 79,273,633 | 79,339,980 |
4fbd5e16e1bd5d7dd2f0ea1e177af325b0a030fc | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xc1a25a22dc2757365ccb6b9091b9beb4f235a013472fe56930080fa8f3f28cec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $7.00? | 79,273,633 | 79,339,980 |
c11a775ac7dace84ce6bb444c5f0bbcea59b2e45 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x101eb17946e2828e053bab524a51d575b8897cc899118414c11f75e969b9ae71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $395? | 79,273,633 | 79,340,048 |
7e06fabcc83e6cf45ddca09ec7baa3386fe37bdd | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x09efdbaddc9f8053933868e11c06dc03418a70e5199eccdee6099540dc5c9870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $415? | 79,273,633 | 79,340,097 |
829bf2a571e3cabe15ca86e77443582da74dc9ac | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb02245fd752ab89468d3708f8d0dbd4554954b25c8775cd407dcf6d25deefe57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $390? | 79,273,633 | 79,834,059 |
903bb0ed06c4467a4ee075fbcfc9470218c12289 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x27d9d7830c0115ee7205fce00184ab245a75b43b39c331ffbcf22bc309d338ea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $410? | 79,273,634 | 79,273,634 |
2acc0c10eb0469e1eb56c299c6f836b1b2882b8c | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xdb38fdd9be1779b3c4c81ab9942e8eea4a06189ec518ede362a93c2d04ab6160 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $171? | 79,273,634 | 79,284,680 |
2c647e9b8d4a97ac3195b3054663e0be9aae778e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xdd3644ac250eb71c269e4718e89e22d76830c61ee0687913e60d69f0243784c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $195? | 79,273,634 | 79,339,978 |
19b04a4e3777afeb810626ee56e280d25cd47e85 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x08fd2b6f7d87d2489a3ed90061e4875eb867be2610c095bbae3783134912af71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $435? | 79,273,634 | 79,339,979 |
aac34fee7b72f974349b4a0a251199626f6d7b24 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x23319d0c8529bfa2363456c9cd847a3aa1aed5bb9ef3fc4d0be23b9f53a073b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $205? | 79,273,634 | 79,339,979 |
bdc03dba08abb5b1ac0f545444b906c342f70b3f | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x23bff4e4f7b6f5ebd898bc3c027e8d27e0b4d39e2236302620f6cb4d806731d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $168? | 79,273,634 | 79,339,979 |
4a9bbd3837e894a35ecea00831f2933eedaa8a88 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb43a821481a7e21f85ae7ab4b29a1b2c60af1c97e00e6f3262afec7d3200de46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $174? | 79,273,634 | 79,339,979 |
ff9321bfbb7dab49b1b7e4ddf05d1c9cd0fa7a38 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x8f42a21c85c4a24458804db34bc47d631ff20b281735c4f2407345cd8c0abc35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $175? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tesl... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $173? | 79,273,634 | 79,339,980 |
708ff3de10457040ecfebdcc71aa3f51ea03427f | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x58879ce59ef6cf4f42f2f7d41ea5d75f42befb8e354a00cc05d7e2f28d519a5d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $175? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: tsla-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Opendoor (OPE... | no | 0 | pltr-above-in-november-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $196 end of November? | 79,273,634 | 79,747,479 |
dc576f7615bf5b912efa340e57cb1068ef0f42e2 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb7004391e4269a49bbb1e37b391adc65eedca7057d462a90702b4d9866477445 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: tsla-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 0 | what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Will Opendoor reach $10.75 in November? | 79,273,634 | 79,747,480 |
c975600733056fd567f3c3d8841a7b4a6de0f58d | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x12ab4e56bf047ffa7bd2b311de304e6fa84f3e73ae1bb0e71ff853f0e6bfc13d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9865812764763912
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.00? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-... | yes | 0.835722 | tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,273,634 | 79,834,059 |
430088ea425c1cb3b14e5c325c542d2a0084667b | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1e5400484559c6331f97eb098f8cec12bb2791a52238317d8e7a28653675ed83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.00? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $166? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $165? | 79,273,634 | 79,834,059 |
fedc18f7b974dc0663291a6cf5d1fdc3cf12c43a | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xfe2499f264b6801060f384055866f82d53dc8823113f1df4d49a975e259d1b8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $166? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $177? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 0.660524 | tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,273,634 | 79,834,059 |
7f0b4465303d566430d3863702e26b5c57c38b68 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x8352751707f533fef13aa3deff6df82d1c8ec0768132a194b5f9757a0748dbac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $177? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $165? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $200? | 79,278,291 | 79,319,588 |
0fc4167560a48c03a998820d1ce8ba4662ea0185 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x0f0eecf1d01c5b6ce8c03505b0cfda7c08b028b12f9bfcfba00ab23badc09d0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $165? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $176? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | open-above-in-november-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $7.00 end of November? | 79,278,291 | 79,834,060 |
e36be8bf8938491ea62fec6e3d82baaa41a14de1 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x43acc1855bd8ce685e2d796cfa9b962e8d9d29933ee6f23e607e537ec4b0c9f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $176? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $172? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November? | 79,278,291 | 79,834,060 |
dea87c7cb13e3d3eeb828d52cb781bf3381b58af | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x7ab35f98a102dffba5e0c9a9bd9a8efe7549af35bf5b76c19c9200dacbf64c02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $172? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $210? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Pa... | no | 0 | open-above-in-november-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of November? | 79,284,679 | 79,284,679 |
fb23c3a07f3d225af53d89069e90351b4c10c47e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x5d02e4a6969e65bda7ceb286e098ea8b71647517f011e44ed553a021b27c3b58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $210? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $167? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Op... | down | 0 | open-up-or-down-on-november-20-2025 | Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on November 20? | 79,284,679 | 79,315,495 |
2147e8e62b399ae6a5c01494b209cbf283d2f94f | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x408e5d6920c2aaa15e31b576038472115db698003e2c712ea685b57feaf91ff2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $167? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor dip to $5 in November? | Event: what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA)... | no | 0 | tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of November? | 79,284,679 | 79,319,588 |
054e6db465cd6943a3d4e2ed073f3edf1771e029 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xe36358ccaa22c5738c94d6484feb222ed06da27f802d603be8639c0776ba79dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor dip to $5 in November? | Event: what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close abov... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $385? | 79,284,679 | 79,319,588 |
bef6fbb510836c6824500744fd9f0d5a9400e978 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x7ce521a7b238f4e21ed927d25b60511d9c98dd7f3044ec2400dc50111e686a0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at... | no | 0.490581 | nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,284,679 | 79,339,979 |
9e1177a04cc55768cc4ac540c7ed7910bc8061ec | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x62547763d8b9ab403969539658dbc6550a70bd1c53caf30134a5e4ef207e2f3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $190? | 79,284,679 | 79,339,980 |
e23781b6fee0afa11cf8e653b42f04c5a633cd5f | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xc870105a2f20fe8ce0e76f91b8791470c09d3e0426c18ba928722952c48e85b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.20169328987281987
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $400? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Cho... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $169? | 79,284,679 | 79,340,097 |
4e1371fefb8c478c4bd4a06446c97bc0785251b8 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x46cd69cd7706348c70d038ccc4267920d5648fe93be4f3475a6763f37de01d13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $400? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $405? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palant... | no | 0 | nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of November? | 79,284,679 | 79,542,906 |
abc6e903fd5f4a3068833f5967dfe0bf151da49e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xeaf2ebc14e4fa5200b9a7e9aa79e18fc4e79c38fb8ebf68dd24fbb745213c28c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $405? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $170? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Ope... | yes | 0.053202 | nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,284,679 | 79,834,060 |
b5349f9e0ca6ce4f54c1e41df8ec5d1de7aeb1d7 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xf583be15d4402e68734aee0dbec7c92bc465d4484498e81151642fbf63dc35bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $170? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $7.00? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 0 | open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $6.00? | 79,284,680 | 79,284,680 |
faec1b5ee5084914ec901df187e5baf8982dbf1c | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x6f370c06ab4403b4875a6146fd34a00c74e58c8669e0e2b20c10baff8aaba8a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $7.00? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $395? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Te... | no | 0.591377 | nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,284,680 | 79,339,980 |
7a1bf7b604a136ffc0b963d79568aa66f5961a72 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x7ad5e9d03d798a12c2a3087ae84dab3720292cc0c8afae6dbdcbeec1bf803975 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $395? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $415? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla ... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $185? | 79,284,680 | 79,339,980 |
05d038dc5af8e0485f68d91b4ea26c0e9c26d33d | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb7e8aeafff9afe961db08dc01227765735bcdec826212049669fad146eb8a40e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $415? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $390? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla ... | no | 0 | open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $7.50? | 79,284,680 | 79,339,980 |
8c22c7586f519a47906aec53dadfbc84658e689d | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x0c346b702bafd7427ac1a1b9292dbc0e3c687c8ea6b5f950fff0ba0754049682 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $390? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $410? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palant... | no | 0 | nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of November? | 79,284,680 | 79,834,058 |
ef17b0944d980d6af71f77590e1b1eeb1d505f4c | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xbfe64684761ed566d9ad3b6c5e10ef9ca1e780a9bf02a8c5d2b1917f99c4dd91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $410? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $171? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVI... | no | 0 | open-above-in-november-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of November? | 79,284,680 | 79,834,060 |
e938def63bd9fc7e510d73216196a9c0a7278056 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x5c79ac93d63265da2a860fc65bfef4ecc009da5de590266c58cda685bb403538 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $171? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $195? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Te... | down | 0 | nvda-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 21? | 79,319,588 | 79,339,978 |
fa1f883a41f9404ebada783897d916deb79a471c | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x621e2605068acd04325c065a00d09b8d5acc82105fff89cd5ea7025d3241dfc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $195? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $435? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVIDI... | down | 0 | tsla-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 21? | 79,319,588 | 79,339,978 |
a2b170db2fd1f92d2122d3fe6814ad46b5526bde | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xbcdcc4f0cdfc44db29db776766836c239d1df488c7ffcc839e05901a3ae410a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $435? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $205? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palan... | down | 0 | pltr-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 21? | 79,319,588 | 79,339,979 |
9080a5cc593be312b8ceeb8b955bddf32cd2ae9b | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xe4c75615bcad6aa4fa30115ce23d83731e52eb17b11ff3f7636e176e4be4b113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $205? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $168? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Pa... | yes | 0.258594 | nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,319,588 | 79,834,058 |
23f07aea6f35ffb5951a54c76b0c1f4253db3324 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x20181487c26f36a48f3fde9efef59a65c416915e2d5a585382953c31590bab32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $168? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $174? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $175? | 79,319,588 | 79,834,059 |
2520462c864f470f92612d56ed77cb132b634fb5 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x41309ddc754d07ad961f3429f4868c3ca925cd1f3aac8cdbc634011b16376570 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $174? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $173? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 0.716633 | nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,319,588 | 79,834,059 |
ef39f67dd87ebdd71fd67846fc75c531d84f6bc7 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x74ec90e550f29be050b6041eff02a66e5c643a56ba5bb504d76a6465d5a2d1ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $173? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $196 end of November? | Event: pltr-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Opendoor... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $380? | 79,319,588 | 79,834,059 |
0750256a8565b2ec3aabf2b272ca661806e77e12 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x099fe7577624e6619131f858db2a6cc20df0bcc713372ba68c5e528572d293b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $196 end of November? | Event: pltr-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor reach $10.75 in November? | Event: what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) clos... | no | 0 | rklb-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 17 above $41? | 79,324,454 | 79,339,979 |
364633b37e6a9f13d6f306021957304aa3b58488 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x7228b3c6c79c9b933f5d113c2184aa3cb07af78561ae49d6c87d1364143347d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor reach $10.75 in November? | Event: what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 0 | what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $360 before 2026?? | 79,324,454 | 79,531,782 |
6eac7dcb74b58f555d53ea009c7bff99299044b5 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xfe9c4156f250e16886a22f3205205553ef3ac4d9260dcbd236a5e656339cd7cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.8357224034447804
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $165? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | ... | no | 0 | rklb-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 17 above $40? | 79,326,457 | 79,326,457 |
17a54d4b5e349e845124b6097213dbde5dc67a5d | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1d5425aca4b940efd05237a1b8ffb6df7cf5ca512199eb4b409a25033a6ce248 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $165? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 0.966955 | open-week-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,326,457 | 79,339,979 |
e8da3b767e611708ceb5d64573c4374a24c6136d | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1cdfd1c80e31282f5387f62e99af9bc23706f4892f6736f68aad7f1b721331ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.6605235780143646
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $200? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | ... | yes | 0.006853 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026?? | 79,326,457 | 79,883,159 |
11e7762b3b81f97801210729550131cb37a1b26a | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x2540b8d0d22219fbe9992ba21f6dc58dab71f59e0c6fac3e50be8c56b1f67384 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $200? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $7.00 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (N... | yes | 1 | rklb-week-november-21-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at <$42 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,339,978 | 79,339,978 |
35312d97cbcda8b75f521e7aff81793c8990b3a3 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x5d478443b4e530f412114a6ebf964c93c3d8ad0989e6b8ef67682a6502f179b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $7.00 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November? | Event: nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) c... | yes | 1 | pltr-week-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$184 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,339,978 | 79,339,978 |
c77f88ddee3630db0064f627247c09faba237332 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x23cff3c2e7b5b47cd8f9f7942dbbf2a7ccce5caacc99180b332a5cbdfc693863 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November? | Event: nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Opendoor (OPEN) Up or ... | no | 1 | rklb-week-november-21-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at $42-$44 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,339,980 | 79,339,980 |
01126148e9e45bd32fd63c7f1f6345e3595dfcc6 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x6e6940c6307384423e872b3022f9ee05127e4b1ca294485bae9a2f84a2fa3e03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on November 20? | Event: open-up-or-down-on-november-20-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) clos... | no | 1 | tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,339,980 | 79,339,980 |
aef859f3ed7c4cb7617e0e40753e7b82cce0978a | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb5f55ce6eefc4ccf8497a58d09f8bc7a918c77b731cc0b330d911c6f59c5e5c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on November 20? | Event: open-up-or-down-on-november-20-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish w... | no | 1 | open-week-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,339,980 | 79,339,980 |
e54b05ab52bc1bfdbe5d8c2438d4b344d618a355 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xce904a711423281a6c9be23f4d6a25b80b6d0b4823e1aa984d6c32f79b0da68f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $385? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) ... | no | 0 | open-above-in-november-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $10 end of November? | 79,340,048 | 79,453,631 |
fe4496f3af918a5f1041016a63b9fb7c633bdc64 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x715cda3ee31734b4248fab4a45f1895edd41f07208f93fd6506bc4de58cc2a97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $385? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 0.006546 | what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $375 before 2026?? | 79,340,048 | 79,813,982 |
873cf7d8aa4063e918c2dea8043155d3b629cafd | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x5270c8b2ac0ede9e4e247ac7b0c9174ba025fc5778719b4cf2b586a797ae24f3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4905811311593845
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $190? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | ... | no | 1 | open-week-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,340,097 | 79,340,097 |
a3d0ee31a7c1350b288bedc93e4e447b6a0c5cb3 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x933cf9b823dd448ad0bff5dee2b08662dd94f51f0b99409ba882a53a5a011577 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $190? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $169? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NV... | no | 1 | open-week-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $10-$11 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,340,097 | 79,340,097 |
77ab831deedd6a0049a34198f35c3e7e552ca8d9 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x090ffb71a706fe4b346844d66de502a28d2d93fa9b60b27b707d78b65ae8e95a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $169? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of November? | Event: nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (NV... | down | 0 | rklb-up-or-down-on-november-24-2025 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on November 24? | 79,453,631 | 79,453,631 |
990eb0dc27eba67acdbca1656ff55d51bf305e1e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x4769bb9425e0520a88a5daf6ecb927d384ed8438c441e2d5687517d29b254338 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of November? | Event: nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $156? | 79,453,631 | 79,453,631 |
c25ac59fd4f0214e452a25a02a61412905e6dc17 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x7fdce54fadbf2066bb0ff36b3750df900fc489062b2dc06ec660c24944234fdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.05320220306161504
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $6.00? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-20... | no | 0 | tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of November? | 79,453,631 | 79,453,631 |
ac63c34ce5d4f96ee0ac2a508393d9a714c386da | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x9aa61db84fc4fd2c5180a93809b60d31e8738deddfbed4cc43637e9e8205b1b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $6.00? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no |... | yes | 0.210757 | what-will-nflx-hit-before-2026 | Will Netflix (NFLX) hit $90 before 2026?? | 79,453,631 | 79,453,631 |
17987f20f4cbdeb3017d14b9bf51e9a282894408 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xc781dcea691879c97099523224624de498c123a5a2938a8bb0f3cbe7686c9595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205-$210 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.5913766380160631
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $185? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | ... | no | 0 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $170 before 2026?? | 79,453,631 | 79,530,741 |
7a58ae1f1ff58e6517383e0b4c41be5038d4e8f7 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x64f4a1d7f18532cbb25e4f28937d9ea281bb8bc2d10e1cd7fd4dbdbea242b2cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $185? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $7.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will N... | no | 0 | what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $445 before 2026?? | 79,453,631 | 79,531,782 |
8172b7d8ad6541bebd4fd218455a31b58e072424 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xc4516d0a31be5e480bc34f0b03d24cd4cac0b9088694fac3f54793d2d7aa62e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $7.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of November? | Event: nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Opendoor ... | no | 0.038025 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026?? | 79,453,631 | 79,813,982 |
48b2eac768f6e2d329e76a0148427a019277cc10 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xfcbc2158a031a323598f70f6ea6e3187e7796f4912f3b05cb63cf2135e694e30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of November? | Event: nvda-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Do... | yes | 0.240835 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026?? | 79,453,631 | 79,926,854 |
9e14f6816f302ae3f345f0a798acc63acc00ddc5 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x929d4eecad7985c0c69dc64ea2554a9fc4c993928b766056c9c795614536c320 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 21? | Event: nvda-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down ... | yes | 0.24598 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $145 before 2026?? | 79,531,781 | 79,883,159 |
845630bef32ab8df64b1ec765c3d665b2f34a7c3 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x84360880a975929a1e44656186025a3ef596a4314d00fbed9274048d8b516aa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 21? | Event: nvda-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 21? | Event: tsla-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on ... | no | 0.016466 | what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $460 before 2026?? | 79,531,782 | 79,531,782 |
9725c428e9e19926788f1ed4def82d43e9a6acca | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xe1e31e561761adbcc0d8ba72683ee9fc3aebf408888f624c06bff1401cc51736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 21? | Event: tsla-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 21? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at ... | no | 0 | open-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 24 above $7.50? | 79,531,782 | 79,542,906 |
01a365f50b0d36ed5579581c36639fd65e7a9449 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1571e9794f4bf0b16baf5447dac6f6cff5eee64bf17e347055a75d0c6bb61019 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 21? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 24 above $175? | 79,531,782 | 79,542,907 |
70a0de5d5461d1490f4a59a219e1a9c9043defdb | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb0912db6e4a79d37f09b2cdd255140c2dc8516cbecad50c4b89fa763a3e18557 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.2585943176646625
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $175? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 |... | no | 0.100457 | nvda-week-november-28-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,531,782 | 79,747,480 |
cae3febe910eae4ae3a2b0e962f4b7803f99c9dc | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xd84e2f2e65ce6b00ce1104f2f09b0d32db647d8d8b5ed87e86107c3ad004fd15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $175? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 0.337727 | pltr-week-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$146 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,531,782 | 79,834,060 |
b03770fd78999d43b64c67333033327f9fa7ad84 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x2af259c610e172f574f1a504001b87b7b5a981d5a20b4970e141455221870977 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: nvda-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.7166326223235484
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $380? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $152? | 79,531,784 | 79,531,784 |
92eaeaec23d9a199f819c7cdbac9febe708f826d | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x90e696af944fbd3ae303a8866799074bbd0dc1f4b6ca8ad1378bbd1726daffb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 17 above $380? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 17 above $41? | Event: rklb-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Te... | no | 0 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $230 before 2026?? | 79,531,784 | 79,531,784 |
08e166bce92f35186068a3ae854fe71f54f423c6 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xaf12b36f8e8c48bb0218653fc033185691f1a41820b8c17cebc814d344ea1c14 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 17 above $41? | Event: rklb-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $360 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) ... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 24 above $405? | 79,531,784 | 79,531,784 |
e2a1b494ad574b6a300e834f79994eece059dccc | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb780bfe7b915fff6fcd7859018747eb02673ba0df2623df2207ef3e1c61bb3dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $360 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 17 above $40? | Event: rklb-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) cl... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $150? | 79,531,784 | 79,531,784 |
582367f0127c9a7ef9e4210c81a3e483312fb58f | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xea785aa46c4a6c6d732dc530e13fc9c9bbd2f41f2751e0a2dcaf1c2bc2c33087 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 17 above $40? | Event: rklb-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: ... | yes | 0.461427 | pltr-week-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close at >$164 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,531,784 | 79,747,477 |
c1e676c8cfbbe52ea6c7597cb13d993ae6332329 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x4f00cded75034cd98245e1f0b41e3e5570ba4868ea7847b49834bdffb9877799 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9669552574185447
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes... | no | 0 | what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Will Opendoor reach $9.75 in November? | 79,531,784 | 79,747,479 |
fb41883a5480b770f95fa34b5f8f120b31046b94 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xbfa4d6b5668eb7155eeac64d97579587a87ae5a8cec4ef73bfd44c615973b0c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.006852573620507367
2. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at <$42 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: rklb-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 0.081967 | what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $350 before 2026?? | 79,531,784 | 79,753,376 |
7ac6ff8da3332f78b0a733e8e33c6e9291e9a9de | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x15bd003006d913b0ba12a511f48e22d23a28dc56cb92cb77fb6c0d28ff250cfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at <$42 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: rklb-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$184 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: pltr-week-... | no | 0.063555 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026?? | 79,531,784 | 79,813,982 |
017f0434dc2359af9036b087b82282c0e11c407e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x8560fa8cf7b0e13e7041a2161da330c755a575ef495424f831ffb72ac4f34041 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$184 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: pltr-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at $42-$44 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: rklb-we... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 24 above $395? | 79,531,785 | 79,531,785 |
a1f5fc8f788ee6f8025400dc83212f1ef0a42446 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x85b152282d43f6d1e9015fdcab671bce2e563be9a5d147198349121eb48b64ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at $42-$44 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: rklb-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: tsla-we... | no | 0 | what-price-will-open-hit-in-december-2025 | Will Opendoor dip to $6.50 in December? | 79,531,785 | 79,531,785 |
65f8e5b0192987bdea505812c9a2c971013d53d7 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xa5f4c25599f85825b199e8a084f488006a846fe7e1a99f61a01a7642a549a818 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: tsla-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-... | yes | 0.458732 | what-price-will-open-hit-in-december-2025 | Will Opendoor reach $13 in December? | 79,531,785 | 79,542,907 |
a47ff65f99c06a74115868a5489473afb9a52bc8 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xdafc072f585ad1fa95ef5e69b91259c27c682764ba6e835396be628bf1cadfbd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $10 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 0 | rklb-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 24 above $44? | 79,531,785 | 79,747,480 |
cc229065e03459bafb8fc9c5cee06639825da9a1 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x12bc1aac876074f6fb4cdce873d7524739a2baecea90922d0a8fe8876d76a24c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $10 end of November? | Event: open-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $375 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.006546216286986122
3. Question: Will Opendoor (... | yes | 0.227792 | what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $215 before 2026?? | 79,531,785 | 79,748,215 |
29bc89ae251b70bf44527bd2dd24ff2f09abe750 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x8009b921428368f582aefde22809166003298e889223ffb01c4cd0d595cd8710 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $375 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.006546216286986122
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 24 above $155? | 79,531,785 | 79,834,059 |
aed5058f8d5cd2b3bac5b63f9f57e6b5166ff467 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x01a60668bcd32d43e29f5bb359fecdd32e7d9a82879e5cb6c59f2a465ad901ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $10-$11 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open... | yes | 0.38184 | open-week-november-28-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,531,785 | 79,834,060 |
bade8a4cfff1d9eb10270ab1cfd3db7b930be155 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x11e12572ef2f81bba18acae9f8785573527f3a43d3c061c6987b7bca74dab789 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $10-$11 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | Event: open-week-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on November 24? | Event: rklb-up-or-down-on-november-24-2025 | Choice: down | Confiden... | no | 0 | nflx-above-in-november-2025 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $104 end of November? | 79,542,906 | 79,542,906 |
fa9d9d3e9044e72a969fc681b45d0a4148ede5b0 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1ed68cae0a836669c98d50c8cbbd81ed622e036e70e20909502a9aaac834d5b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on November 24? | Event: rklb-up-or-down-on-november-24-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $156? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (T... | no | 0 | rklb-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 24 above $42? | 79,542,906 | 79,542,906 |
1c8947c3408d9dff1eb41cfd4fcd2e72f0626dd4 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x4b356b4cbb49b763c156a59c3cc14f3e5a3099eb5be6becaaed3bb5b5c462b44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $156? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Netflix (NF... | down | 0 | nvda-up-or-down-on-november-26-2025 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 26? | 79,542,906 | 79,542,906 |
c01bcc8d6f7aa6344594895e3cc7f785cdd2f986 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x4e1cca6f3f8bd00ee345fa429fb0e3524fd27b6309490e38f312836a9e5dc8d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of November? | Event: tsla-above-in-november-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Netflix (NFLX) hit $90 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nflx-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.21075730546390287
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA... | no | 0 | rklb-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 24 above $41? | 79,542,906 | 79,542,906 |
111e05059578f3c42364933650a61553b5411529 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x8bcf28ba1516b7c235c04fe3878c563cccc1ce2c8b1a0f838e6b9b5711e97e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Netflix (NFLX) hit $90 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nflx-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.21075730546390287
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $170 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $4... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $160? | 79,542,906 | 79,542,906 |
e1e470d2d0047833f3d8318182ad15bc500acfe5 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x0ae142e2e2d5826066ee0b9837bcee34bdd5855bef98919887fa840f76eff04f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $170 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $445 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026?? ... | yes | 0.246623 | nvda-week-november-28-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,906 | 79,747,479 |
4b42c1f9d7f2fe93fb2ee994e7e18a262dfe00d8 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x704270284192c0ea082efdce431c1dc1137b533deff4b370f9f990b0af329ae3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $445 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03802540675620409
3. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $16... | no | 0 | tsla-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 24 above $425? | 79,542,906 | 79,834,060 |
2f3de300316db82df5ab7d1fd91e111351abfd3e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x28313ceb958d246e387ef991315d66f197a486ccb1c3888fb681b49f9f39e456 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.03802540675620409
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.24083528048578734
3. Question: Will NVI... | no | 0 | open-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 24 above $8.50? | 79,542,907 | 79,542,907 |
f48bca4ddfb74b62159e6b649bcb4c3dea28c070 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xbde2bf547081a6733dfc9b5956b2d31140cc921577e4d6f2a0c67bef02535954 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.24083528048578734
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $145 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.24598043182343127
3. Question: Will Te... | no | 0 | nflx-above-in-november-2025 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $110 end of November? | 79,542,907 | 79,542,907 |
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