sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
152b97efe07a2d46a3144b8d759fcb1ae71d7ae4 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf0f0702539d88e8f5496570a7ffc02d1536bffa53b1285883437d45ae919f1e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? | 69,051,771 | 69,051,771 |
71160b573a37afcd9036a13419759837e187c397 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6ac948c4800476dd1657a6e2d091b1ae69bda902fceefda27b465dc3faa55e9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-13 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on March 13? | 69,051,775 | 69,051,775 |
c8e6436c96d857690de027bf2b9f95cc3692bd10 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x22dcf28506895a90c5bbe71105db9ebc41dc72e14f6812f94c33fccc57c6164c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-14 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 14? | 69,091,743 | 69,091,743 |
3b52fcc40408d37356af275b65a8b63ddd83f506 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xa2a36ff2a1fe9dd8624b84dd7671c7fbf2d766df1b7915654bb0e570551c3bdc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice:... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-march-14 | Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? | 69,130,226 | 69,130,226 |
cb523d785771a7839997ce144e6008bb6c0d3cb3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xdea067ab3f71c2eed35ad7e7945dbbccd020e61e98f3d97a6e7c499389906732 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-7 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-15 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 15? | 69,130,230 | 69,130,230 |
7e245bc4208a25c20945eedf81ea1bad210c1c4b | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x2333153e4aedb3d1a08a4df9cd0e03780ecbe341516757e0509eef19fc29731e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or below on March 16? | 69,130,238 | 69,130,238 |
d4de7c3c9b7b9de7d1a1715ac872030ae2b84afa | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xcef71c86ab1be38dc58d9e742f8d3b028d5b0ec1f5ef41398f185faa39f6e312 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-15 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or higher on March 15? | 69,130,238 | 69,130,238 |
6bbc9b96f8ecc6c1b14f0a57f6a3c15c99e2f27c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf6963f696e3f3ac1c6217a12191fd6df1637b72913e490300ac74c4eec17b143 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 15? | 69,130,592 | 69,130,592 |
71407d64af4752f7382e1aacfd44b2a3b8112572 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x0db9fbb7744df3883aa75e1301839e58b3fc8c685fcac21c489736979aa68e57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 16? | 69,130,595 | 69,130,595 |
2863ed20d9f90ac43397f9db9f371d2644316b58 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x426a12ec7af734eb6c5b46f98b7f3f2e983f160966cc2e47426bf6e6e9e2c0c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 15? | 69,130,595 | 69,130,595 |
9f590147bb5d55977f20f8d9d5a20c98fe61133d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xb9b1a546658f8fe2805a14dde4ae88cfac5696e5b25885466127eef24458b64b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? | 69,176,162 | 69,176,162 |
61fe8f98a86bf86aff2b2952ed305616bfa74f5d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x94249999a08cb9eee68ce47fb471f6d1df77c00da602f7e7b9b0f874eb042237 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? | 69,176,165 | 69,176,165 |
52a256ee02ab5836d3b6cb69f544ecf8283351d3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd73fa458870620d759ad7961102f5d4ad4b823eb9c1c41c962d9ba9689a5f069 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18? | 69,216,184 | 69,216,184 |
d925d96930457f3f32bfda664bc5705237046b09 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xbc29c807e4fc09dac7b44633dd4d47b977dad25ee1f56da7015ee93f1646bf70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 7? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? | 69,216,193 | 69,216,193 |
1fcbb942a786aea8a33a5f4ab1116b97b97397f8 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xc5af22e14ce2066a288ef5bc6c2a782bd7a4ec5b410a87b3aea02fd3dc8cfe48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | opus-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? | 69,216,196 | 69,216,196 |
3bc1ae10433f0da32e214a0be99848d4714c2ce9 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6966b5e6dd9f7bc0c0938e1de8c7a7d4cd409cdf78694d05d470441696c3d523 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 63°F or higher on March 18? | 69,253,352 | 69,253,352 |
20b53d2ef4198e081dbbbc7219c9ff249bc983ff | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x3426ee6eded9e2c8561aee472c848e7125d9a25dcdf7059b30a47014db6c5411 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 19? | 69,253,354 | 69,253,354 |
6558e7c4459a2e00f1e39050d7a6fb23b8436e95 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xffb5f215709c547ef98b2c9d740367293baad8ccdf59dab71bd480b18fb49254 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week | Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? | 69,253,357 | 69,253,367 |
882a25c4898d17e7bb10910767094f61c6c55589 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5f78526ca413315b5cb5d1a7d96db55501ea8501d3db1b0e2251cc72a70c8df9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? | 69,253,363 | 69,253,363 |
46a14dc4ab708ba3284df305ca6ede529a79dd9c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x44b57e4b9fd3c7e8fcf5eb13bda62f227cedb47a4f0c0904815503a74f051d50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-9 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? | 69,293,364 | 69,293,364 |
47565dbeb39ee728c85371f6275c6d8c0962ea98 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xbdcf81b24f47c905daa915cb43238ba5c9e06f49ca2fb0a7ab2b770f9905a69e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 19? | 69,293,366 | 69,293,366 |
3eb1b8616defa4eeb9a83104358b3bcbb2293c94 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x8cbf2a54d820a1e0ab2ea7ca88388a02e802e375ffc683826a06a42f5b5851f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 10? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 20? | 69,293,394 | 69,293,394 |
386bb162ffb332d12423f8f9e42ae3559d2523f7 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xeed6da09683149b433aeb802bd8d3f78a6b6d8799fa75bd0d73c3f87c6b2b592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-march | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | 69,293,397 | 69,293,397 |
6e66c9f311e1b8dda00ec952661f87f4b113bf0f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xae80aa388eb643c5d0f825be9a7cca918180aa59fcf44c69f696fd21a4ed7c91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 67°F or higher on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? | 69,293,401 | 69,293,401 |
92f0ff21195d37943380835fa53128f4197be145 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xfc6d5fef77e7b8e888eb7c315acbf1f597bc3b89075ea05ea2483ebc81eafdcf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 67°F or higher on March 11? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-20 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 20? | 69,293,410 | 69,293,410 |
72788036b87d6a9973dc3f7bd1cfc389ec190d08 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x8c680303a517580286b39f54c8c00aced80f7dd3ee16a84527c756ad14618eed | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | Event: cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-croatia-vs-france | Will France beat Croatia? | 69,333,681 | 69,333,681 |
08f332b60872b952d5cf7fd78c7210d9394667cb | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xdca2cf61f40b858ca4e9cf68bb11f033ab0a9d7329569f8ba178b5ea7ba94f78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on March 20? | 69,333,683 | 69,333,683 |
025427815af3fce7873967833c3cfc0489fc75ac | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x07aa588746d3906539d4240fb33a05fd06898139538f8348bc473ec723bdb812 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | 69,333,688 | 69,333,688 |
9f42efd3ca337a941012981edab6b2cf73671ad4 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xae3452e4f3161bced9ade93367c5934a805b7af418f241933affc993fc88dc5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? | 69,333,691 | 69,333,691 |
3d8eb6e41c7df633cf0f7c1fe7393962e8ee82e1 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x72594ec4f1686e8113a11f5812d7cc7198ea3af86e3bdced9e56d1593237edc7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-14-21 | Will Trump post 100-119 times March 14-21? | 69,333,694 | 69,333,694 |
9fa855e772b6f87ae5323dbfec1392a97e49b552 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x24bfd146dc3cf164839311f05ecdc8e7e61ff7f7b0b5d8f39607f656c8684fb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on March 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-14-21 | Will Trump post 180-199 times March 14-21? | 69,333,697 | 69,333,697 |
aabe977cf1f8fc1bad3955448b5b33b46042d320 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x42c46dd7bafd2449229183f648935edaeeef671fbb2ad527441e2621fd70f4d6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on March 13? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-13 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | 69,333,700 | 69,333,700 |
774a7989dbd147df599261f0167f275682a47117 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x22abe473b88941723dee5b34be80e62dd0bbd90c40e3a415b5ab59175aa46561 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 14? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? | 69,333,705 | 69,333,705 |
2c76bea6a1629449ef24591f8a8593480c9e49c9 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5073f74333fc68e1e1cafacd3a81d3dbb33a00a08af0667fa254d4bcc9c4c405 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-march-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | 69,333,707 | 69,333,707 |
c6de6c83a90ddf0b0f9c919c0df48dbe2818cf8f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x2c0c678db3a6b7f933e4a79ca294abba6f9f4c238051ee6cb9ee5e0937142509 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or below on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on March 20? | 69,333,709 | 69,333,709 |
0faea6b422dc8e2ba5a14993e7aa0375e8ac8f4e | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5a5d6ba40396fa5d775e30047f0a48bcdc013365f0bae8fa70a4aec838f8ca24 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or below on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or higher on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-15 | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | 69,333,711 | 69,333,711 |
255a21050a1ef3a6b970d2d41eef34856d883019 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xe2140cc8b48146e3c7e306284611d013b31dfdcad9dc479b98a19f367c6c6e68 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or higher on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-15 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22? | 69,412,658 | 69,412,658 |
8c3537f8cad5a10da267ab940621f73680449f57 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf8a7d27e36f183150c32928a21b918f0b0677ac45d0d4569dd23b23b3d5caff5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 21? | 69,412,666 | 69,412,666 |
ad17b1300edbfdfb4b1dd77b8385791f7a575f3a | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6e7c2fda84fbce6691e5bdc05ea2e367b6cdc2e8d00ba0ba21de53b3f6bf09e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-15 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 21? | 69,412,673 | 69,412,673 |
c4058c2b102c6541069f750dceacb827be56d33d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5c464b379d9b0440f1f0d376cdcdec7da42b04cd478db5ab37065df29b676dfa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-16 | Choic... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 22? | 69,412,762 | 69,412,762 |
9992d0515cbbf0c429e00d0ac66a13db06a32c70 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xceda55624aa969eb29b6e4db393fa604de3e74c0a308bf004e50c34dc90948e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-17 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 22? | 69,412,764 | 69,412,764 |
b5b89e6eb7f83c171bba2eb0d6750e074b7bbcb0 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xab217b36a677f8ab0946c065aae0a38e8def52a2b47bd0b9906367e48eee3870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or higher on March 21? | 69,412,773 | 69,412,773 |
ae0683f228cfc4e3d35cb8c21e8d55fe8b8d436d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x595626acb5254b8850559119d2ddadfeb375414425047c19b6e1e5316266c73d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 21? | 69,412,775 | 69,412,775 |
50daadb0f3ca1c6bf5187bc304bc615ec4050cd0 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xfa74c650c2db0c75ed3affaada5b8b5dbd5afa70e6a1eea13976ac89618584e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? | Event: opus-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22? | 69,412,782 | 69,412,782 |
137f0e3ef699edb574af6cfd72059ddc48a14aa9 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x964f1a5d93f672c35bf1ad1c7121fab5ab88d1b104d73b0dc7634e2939a219dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? | Event: opus-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 63°F or higher on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22? | 69,412,784 | 69,412,784 |
0568b6ed7fcf3a2557505561ad00a0adc5586840 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x8158613e158529e706c76cebd5409de90bccd6e2203a73754e87041bb5b75017 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 63°F or higher on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | china-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | 69,412,787 | 69,412,787 |
80eeb3b0aad7e7c79bac49cd715b72d47981a736 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xbae1ba3fdf9565d69508e9bc284c900b54c97a88f6a87099c357e6ab4f675b06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week | Choic... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? | 69,412,791 | 69,412,791 |
e17a169e23dcefe9ef52e65a150d99b6e11ce799 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xe35b2efeaaab402c47f04a877fe3fe21ebe8892162bda338dc94ee98c30bcc70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? | Event: what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Choice... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 24? | 69,455,440 | 69,455,440 |
b25b269aac30b053eeb92fb652b8e6e4c1e388e5 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x70f284e43db94dec422c92b0f37c2b21ab65d4c89237fc07517d05a9e38a7d3f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-18 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24? | 69,493,332 | 69,493,332 |
7b88bd9ed7b2a8d9a2c3707def280a8c09f391bf | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xa54ca772623487a8ec89d8e367c4eff7d86ea89aa5a0443cc514e37143660056 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Choice: no | Con... | yes | 1 | magazine-dreams-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross less than 1m on opening weekend? | 69,493,336 | 69,493,336 |
54be57bcd24de0cda269921b337d9bea6b3dbec8 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x1681bbaf627e560159aa4c5352981bc65989d9ebad38c0ee8239bb75ea2ae704 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25? | 69,493,337 | 69,493,337 |
2cad1f4cef66f0768d5514905b4108f635985f99 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6fddfaeac2cf13959b63408593f707bb1c55f6600b734e51d1ac23d82f3df356 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? | 69,493,339 | 69,493,339 |
662754a13038448251139366c039f4619355b357 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x8d2fa23965dc6b4556fb2c0f27c8d042293dc41e1438cd1c79e654d562cd8ee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-march | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
... | no | 1 | snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? | 69,493,342 | 69,493,342 |
0397ef18c8f00135b63136281f2ee11b9b433fae | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x76da4d82e3b320dbe6e9a3dbded22cd70637f3adc7cc0ba37c55addc9d91dff8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-19 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-20 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 24? | 69,493,346 | 69,493,346 |
95ca540ed68158663f1b3da95c18a8b92a5f86d2 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xff5cbfc242c080baa8a4508735cad513e84f0a7e84a88fb5a76dfba72c9a004c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will France beat Croatia? | Event: uefa-nations-league-croatia-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highes... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 25? | 69,493,346 | 69,493,346 |
df890a46dabdcc2754cc378916248949bbcb4d19 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xe5cae18cd71f7760770e841b7afdf42f27afda079daa7cf768786de5698fff1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will France beat Croatia? | Event: uefa-nations-league-croatia-vs-france | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? | 69,493,349 | 69,493,349 |
34729e8290321b4c5ec3356fa5eec2c6a0f5a7b3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x07dcd94fe6481a8bcf124f69980d7a25fe7bef308d227366530c4e5b1e084cd8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence:... | no | 1 | snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? | 69,493,351 | 69,493,351 |
e691a7843f9ee65218dc07d4f42768ed6fe9da5d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xfdaa20471a7aa24b33e20e0330f907afef5ba98187a110d2287632da1f1a47a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump post 100-11... | yes | 1 | snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend? | 69,493,358 | 69,493,358 |
28574f4bf24fe989fd4232a371195a52edb6997a | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x4efd83e998d98f6d19c3f598931a9b733e725e0c803bb3d368a974453e6ee827 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 100-119 times March 14-21? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump post 180-199 ti... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 25? | 69,574,705 | 69,574,705 |
b6deef56b2c0bce2d66fc1ae28d06cdb2c63d746 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x579ce3b991055840b9f8b21b000697abf2072d78b6265a5dcc9b95c0f3dfed1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 100-119 times March 14-21? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump post 180-199 times March 14-21? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon t... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? | 69,574,845 | 69,574,845 |
8a71e8b240f7b4fe176fc3b22990fbe979c965df | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x62a0703e1b7ec4e90ac2f6a85327c8971beeb52839a2f7d3e67cd355ed06e852 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump post 180-199 times March 14-21? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 25? | 69,574,848 | 69,574,848 |
09278308d100c74016a1f80e6deda6d91735848e | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x7e444ac87ee6e0239207aadd7a9ffd6f7f308fa5dcc2e93bd9ea78290288e086 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 40... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | 69,574,870 | 69,574,870 |
ec907fe3a39a4fdda5a99669c1557bbcf4cc18c1 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x44696c44346837000aede4bda9f8944ec888d00cac1bf9193e5b75d661069d02 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest tempe... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 25? | 69,574,871 | 69,574,871 |
d6dbf3ef9e684763833774a08dcd2b26a44b3a69 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf036bf27d2953b1652607739ad1f51541fd7c5c44f7c833faa89b10b7f18fe1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 26? | 69,574,873 | 69,574,873 |
9d9897664176981dc3d5e95fcc867b938c9d434a | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x07d0efeceeaa4b24fae802f5fef6c1eeebbe5fac4101c8939a6486916662e26c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on March 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-26 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 26? | 69,574,877 | 69,574,877 |
e857864d3ad5b5b3fff5a85c891482e640fb43cb | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xaf401b5e81ffa5179e753ff126ed3828420fc67f98a87f9bc8173cc8d8981f42 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-26 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 26? | 69,574,879 | 69,574,879 |
54ee381a6c11b4a9f89b77b4a490688da4ee2726 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xba5001cde71c44e1d8201fe8fcd0e5f88ae08c01b6e7f8f7e1d85fd11f1e40ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Co... | yes | 1 | what-will-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-03202025 | Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this week? | 69,574,881 | 69,574,881 |
61b1c9507ebe0f9a1804d09e76dcf3a330b68c68 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xe062f9c72f8802677d1f47f29b74123eaa1df76329ad302b52d252a70e3a721c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-21 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? | 69,600,812 | 69,600,812 |
394e1749d58a75c9a561f513de2d91c0736ad5ca | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x62339b7bd6c4eb246b226b11414d3f7018b8414bd021b48ed826b3b5eaac43d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-22 | Cho... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? | 69,623,175 | 69,623,175 |
01e5a12e45ad8c633c4f862d087efc8063959745 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x89484a976e7e671e2812560036eb27cf0030d7856f3e9b6236ac8b3d960bd9c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-22 | Cho... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? | 69,623,177 | 69,623,177 |
e7a2c56db2a66ea07131ad3092611a48318981d3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xc0f9130b1147d880a77ee32e51d76834f41f6dce702689dc12299e54cd1ef5bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or higher on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? | 69,623,179 | 69,623,179 |
ef53ae973c938fc338cf5215ab3b4b43d3174e96 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xedde37f83190209fa73053fa9740dbbc641df1b0b05885ed60727eac47bc39b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or higher on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-21 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-28 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 28? | 69,623,205 | 69,623,205 |
a9a0bacca39a8c41377ee072578b26cd1798f088 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf86bddaa19b04201cb979ce689d26d850b2a1c10b2c5e4226c6a6dcca55d4a44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? | 69,623,207 | 69,623,207 |
c9b4b3ead90c5a39174cc79faccd524cfe983690 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd4ae386fe89b850db32e2ad83bfc5cce192656ef3a26efce9d874ec8d4e4a525 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-28 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 28? | 69,623,212 | 69,623,212 |
61cdd1139099a3781fb4b0c63eebfe1f3f95f246 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x697dd055ce9b41d192ae05a5ac88fb2cf95c4f9c64e3e8670ea9297e0ff5c195 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: china-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Q... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-1 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on April 1? | 69,771,682 | 69,771,682 |
209456ce05dd8c1ae20654a8fc18a6f5b330d9e3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xb17db034c7b4704f6ca462269995e3e65211d7fce7c270a3fbea6f0a6398790d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Event: china-grand-prix-sprint-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | what-will-kanyes-token-ticker-be | Will Kanye have no token before April | 69,771,682 | 69,771,682 |
156d5113a6666c566ed2e072cb322752bb9d2126 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x39a667159b53e0617bbc7a002204827f5e2ce8b32a1d1d31930acec50020bc90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-1 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on April 1? | 69,813,053 | 69,813,053 |
f3c4bbdd4abdc833a9dc0ad3eb3d663887916aa3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xadb5eba1607e89ae4d1806bab92b27ed134de1bef97b4a787d9f7d5303907f73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 68-69°F on April 4? | 69,882,204 | 69,882,204 |
cd561cbf1d3425910e81ca890f24e6165132f86c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf0c862610edb0d3893cb531a1fd5efc19a6a1d17fd8706e736d5ac3275a09171 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross less than 1m on opening weekend? | Event: magazine-dreams-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-3 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 66-67°F on April 3? | 69,882,204 | 69,882,204 |
df325123b574a35653ca16fed5f1c0c45812924b | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x29887677521d8c4bc404b747b47560d725fbe32ce0f7f4e4b664e9a6d823e595 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross less than 1m on opening weekend? | Event: magazine-dreams-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25 | Choice: no... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-28-apr-4 | Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 28 - April 4? | 69,909,950 | 69,909,950 |
e039a54adeb17124154134584bd6ffca8deb8b24 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd41beae67791e89e3696dd2ee513ec9dcb57d813c181a1ec51fd6790392dc297 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: n... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80000 on April 4? | 69,909,950 | 69,909,950 |
1a97fb9e438bd4548480b71ee30a6ee2f7959ebc | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xeae90b223e9b2c835cc744d155169b4b3ac35d0eb8500835652ab8f13d1c1a33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? | Event: snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90000 and $88000 on April 4? | 69,909,950 | 69,909,950 |
69b5be905265afc3db44ad0534610af3afb6eb81 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xed22d74ac4af655191254789757c4f81a14fbaef5a2d9dc58330adb50df1b067 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? | Event: snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-april-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on April 4? | 69,911,515 | 69,911,515 |
52bae94be657d6d3db581044e0cded97ad15b37f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x22d22c65779f09d31e52228866c6f86d017f44369a3ae7fa9a523876ab2e3e1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11? | 70,203,029 | 70,203,029 |
04c806bd62d58cbbfab0d4e78d542eaeca9fedf2 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x278862397e5f271a7b2f0d8c3625993e3c4590a008f0a62e0fdf22b2a94dc612 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: no... | yes | 1 | fl-1-special-election-jimmy-patronis-margin-of-victory | Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? | 70,459,623 | 70,459,623 |
67762aab6bb9471bc95a30e88ae14630c02b7f92 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x222a2702a6b01dba75015f1be2e1d09d3ec2384a680d0aa84a3ea5e647944e89 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-24 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? | Event: snow-white-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-april-11-18-628 | Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18? | 70,708,370 | 70,708,370 |
815793c3189ce055485d49c6c0b27026c829d115 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x073fd705201321e99bd0da433b24ce2acae52e85b92c0392c028024189145483 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19?
Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | down | 0 | pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | 79,233,083 | 79,233,083 |
70f7e3aae1bb5836d54c4e3cdaa41551b0acfd33 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1690552d41283d5c5c3db9e5bcb6f207a0fd3af5895239dd327f8fc30862428e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50?
Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for t... | no | 0 | open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | 79,233,083 | 79,233,083 |
7825f31d14a10395fadf837d3019460c61f6fe06 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb167ebb96487c835bac4fe9aabfe944f821a3fa05298a77349d73541620e3b0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: W... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $175? | 79,233,083 | 79,233,083 |
9807cef6b04d3f9534e9ea03143a9664dc3e3314 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x47bd1a03f696b26567d9b7ce163c997aee051d960d859d9e78d0f01d207f9539 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | down | 0 | tsla-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 19? | 79,233,083 | 79,252,599 |
90cc0b1898f01e8a645e14d37df88bdce6bbf876 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1fa0e4235c0e81879ecb173e6b20c94aa18a6b4ed2a1498ec7ae2643ffbdc49d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0.986581 | open-week-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21? | 79,233,083 | 79,339,978 |
c36669c46e5ac652f94dcdb0a541d995fa169026 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x32529a5c2a0e404c9ffb9cb748b1f372143c8d1d7097372719d6dc252fec033c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.00? | 79,233,083 | 79,339,978 |
598ba166fa7702954bd0b4cc6f13a6f33cc3bcaf | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x04a130232650d1c4b3df3dc0f17c1d315f9fe22d029baff3ed667a093292cfe1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $166? | 79,233,083 | 79,339,979 |
f4835c638fa95c236fbbbf66f64e6a6422fb7de6 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x33ee66b6070040998a828b49f9b39261a21b313e68534471a0f91d82acd2c7b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $177? | 79,233,083 | 79,339,979 |
5fe4036ef2e8d42162b1870ee85f955da3c88494 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xf3c60be0253bd81a50905b0bd18c23c4b597bb5e140a6d5a2f13499493db376e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $165? | 79,233,083 | 79,339,979 |
32ff9d564222bd912c13151f4118c923ca61f048 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x423edba942d98aac0cedfa67596e1add487d28c4848247577a46f635487bb3d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $176? | 79,233,083 | 79,339,980 |
84d4eebc374fc6c85cd29543006d3e3f85e8ecbe | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x8d59aab9ca16a7a2d3ce352af22a633c988b7684c94de238d9919bb7568b1b87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $172? | 79,233,083 | 79,339,980 |
3cd568a8a7efc983cd2602e475fc7f03d38525cb | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xa763c7b5a5e9021d90df6d82a481d91ff5a0722c3db540730489c7df6ff18989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | nvda-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $210? | 79,273,632 | 79,273,632 |
4edb90c1191b5ec3690adfc32ca92b73ae23d7fc | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x7629c4c7ca39199d2c10f43223390dae566079df33ab8170fdfae9b0215567b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | pltr-above-on-november-21-2025 | Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 17 above $167? | 79,273,632 | 79,339,979 |
be8f045200b12463612515378182df24bfd2be1e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xedec61642dbd028bd4f79f4b5f3043747c151f384247dd674508efe5b87be504 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 19? | Event: pltr-up-or-down-on-november-19-2025 | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 17 above $9.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-21-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir ... | no | 0 | what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Will Opendoor dip to $5 in November? | 79,273,632 | 79,747,477 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.