sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6db78c2bea4b0b6824dc0764735adc5bbdf25454 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0xc8169d2494e421b994900544505146a3d8696cee14116402feb5093b85e524aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-bar... | no | 1 | lal-elc-rea-2025-11-23 | Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? | 79,421,326 | 79,421,326 |
e9b1911a40ae901642d42bf1f95d25d546afdadd | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x8f899165d56124c11793d9f7e77518eba3fca1c583e83d02e26dee75f75db0f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26? | Event: epl-bou-not-2025-10-26 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-bar-boc-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-olm-ang-2025... | yes | 1 | efl-tot-new-2025-10-29 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-10-29? | 79,440,491 | 79,440,491 |
a3383a4b48df169bf8f5f0d29ffc8799a9c5834c | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x9b7fb4554fb14b0e16ddbbc534e9cec9b6eddf4997cb96f51a344b09ba89d90c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-10-11? | Event: arg-bar-boc-2025-10-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-olm-ang-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-cfc-wol-2025-1... | yes | 1 | uef-kvx-che-2025-11-18 | Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18? | 79,440,491 | 79,440,491 |
e943c5f738ed1b050e51c646982216ad8b8657c2 | 0x172dc8c896439581b102a55b2de5428444c16f3e | 0x79609881fe49e5289b45333beb052cd6ad42c801a3349eb5c69fec825923ea9f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Angers SCO win on 2025-10-29? | Event: fl1-olm-ang-2025-10-29 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-29? | Event: efl-cfc-wol-2025-10-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? | Event: ucl-bru-fcb-2025-11-05... | no | 1 | uel-goa1-ast4-2025-10-23 | Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23? | 79,440,493 | 79,440,493 |
6ef2b0a1d2f81915f6d7157ca86095130ddb88a5 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x2b6cbef7fb59ee0c957aefe95896d4e77e38d51c31d325e40e9acc914f41fc5f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | 67,775,160 | 67,775,160 |
43edd1068a53bd17754aebb10d5a9f2d6fbc1a14 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x95a7018a4ef25e1bf6b1f43ad255452632ea2bfdbaf7261c5423dd244bca5a58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target marke... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | 67,872,134 | 67,872,134 |
3bc2a9f5217baef288a868e842beaaea4618850c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x58a5c0c4c490021d4aa96456b7f5eaa2efa25fb964e4ccea22ef483417b0770f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14? | 67,928,042 | 67,928,042 |
79e30d67ff8456e1251ff2c3f44b4e82fa02e660 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xcafba0a6a7fa46a78b4d59902df0af76b3dbdb338b1a635e9c605b94ead81607 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Will Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on February 14? | 67,928,806 | 67,928,806 |
e70c9f3704d294b9e4d31bfbef6022fcdd8c644a | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x1ec0e3ea6d99ca834a34bba102383202d69914ef60d9ab7116dd9e2599ee7b92 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14? | 67,928,944 | 67,928,944 |
7f142952ab60278fd9aa3e3e3f15881ff8dbad9d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6b0d1a56707de07ffe5304ac435d9043533634ef26c8254a2619eede2b44c7d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Will Brighton win on 2025-02-14? | 67,936,670 | 67,936,670 |
5b0fb6ed70617e1cd04f349ba048fb0b229a7634 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xee96901aeaae205262a16c9550b4ad88fa9e82b1ceae40ea8d01d31bfa8ef3b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Will Brighton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 67,936,684 | 67,936,684 |
94e7b1c855ce43921825a4dc1ef206764a3b236e | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd7b8e42210d57716d7bd04c348a042369d00afbe9794ba2231db335fa2f2f089 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 15? | 68,005,197 | 68,005,197 |
62ce54b4fe357509512434fd150332c44efc4832 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xe8565ce10d68ea0e992d5867eef6f9b45cc8a7c317a76107fbbb79ef25b5097b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-16 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 16? | 68,041,599 | 68,041,599 |
3861ce66d3274955339c03712e9d75205c86e47c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x2cab9db8bd08657c7adedcb55776d8ab9d97728f680b67f74089c28961ddd79a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Will Team Candace win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | 68,041,603 | 68,041,603 |
2498bc267f3ed514486e20dd9e56314bcf0b3df6 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x2621417ed806633458dd7d6a98412a533d0de4db848d15601f1ad7a264de0b9e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-wol-2025-02-16 | Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-16? | 68,041,615 | 68,041,615 |
16cc4c1e693a35e9d6080d28789ea9a7e62263ec | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xa9780a68ba6bf8943bce6a60e0b0bdd6d579b23be55531601a3f540a8d020bd5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-16 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 16? | 68,041,639 | 68,041,639 |
05d1414692b1847b3b4ff4864ddfa1ec4fb0ac50 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6596bc3b5ab33207f0ad1f71abe582cf16e21d7c0989dbc3987279225e44ad13 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 17? | 68,081,425 | 68,081,425 |
34527263c4a252840248137ef19202fa3b74b7eb | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x0f52729f143fd66e3127b9e7e4ed82455cd86f0e52f57abe82ab6aef352475b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | nhl-4-nations-face-off-winner | Will Finland win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | 68,081,430 | 68,081,430 |
c0dd71318b411cb4dbdb5df87837233d2aeb454c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xcab82aa712dd0e4d2567ba1cf163d039cb816dec0626d8a32bf3fae40e32a913 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-truth-posts-feb-14-21 | Will Donald Trump post 120-129 times on Truth Social from Feb 14-21? | 68,123,934 | 68,123,934 |
15e264d29caa5bce3e7b883ad8350f62755b0447 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x25ae67b3e2ad3897a6bb4261c4df6de2e56fbc49870dbd3687051e0cad196fea | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 0.999949 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | 68,193,716 | 68,193,716 |
14bc8f519f104afe77de9e90e11e586ae8f338f4 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xba0cf1d28de6453f3ed322e10da4632e30b950453aacd50af91c91a1fa222b18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | 68,193,721 | 68,193,721 |
ddfab437763beac74b2318398ed42956fdd17d6e | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x2224a194640f8185da258ac660df1dc025482057a97caf504c537f08454deaec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 20? | 68,193,727 | 68,193,727 |
73f0aa11a63f117f8e4bbe275a2211cfa34b4980 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x672192e409a6587f41d52d29fe06af72b8571bc9c6a5a39c4cb881e1dd8252f6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20? | 68,193,731 | 68,193,731 |
c93e89ed7f6ed5da8f09e4aa876d37d31afa302e | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xb71ee008203a7dd14e5f7cd77a98fc99208b148d654971568f950cc29f0bc969 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | nhl-4-nations-face-off-winner | Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | 68,193,742 | 68,193,742 |
ec26d2acdef1c48b899232ec39e265b26e70b36b | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd344a9df889cd1e6a4908ea053869507daddca91e362686fb3909a108b31573a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 21? | 68,207,927 | 68,207,927 |
84eeb513a70c75054081c644b03edcaec9a4d30b | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x011892d762e147bf3b437c7958596b88326e8be6f34f7594af4c4205f395b9d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | 68,221,528 | 68,221,528 |
427c9b93520b6ef7133ef61ad4d9a82137223a10 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd15ff50078abbed7cd571b70c638d94849eb107528ab1aa93b2d3afd5866c5f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21? | 68,221,533 | 68,221,533 |
7b935c89e762d08ec087b475e2180cddf5a1570a | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xbf7d33271795feaba8bb0013a0d8a1771162e8bb7eeaf4db9c9b4297cd36e32b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on February 21? | 68,246,887 | 68,246,887 |
c49a133d5b67bdbcaabfe6341c365c302f86a784 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x55f1d363c09a7243f7b95e9235796ecbe2df71b02fbb0333119355374881bba0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22? | 68,286,745 | 68,286,745 |
beeae950547d1f2ae0234a900a68185ab0f57100 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd365468fc977f2bba6a57ef69a0a72ac26bc94ede01e66c92276e120e759f90e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 22? | 68,286,785 | 68,286,785 |
51832db0e7693ccabbfc6f3492a29764f71f7db6 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x29483270f83df4b0f12247e926fbb3b275c514f46e579c2cc3786a6071929884 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | no | 1 | sag-award-best-cast-in-a-motion-picture | Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards? | 68,324,242 | 68,324,242 |
d54c31bfa961bff3204b958129363923b9931657 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xa3e996d9291ff99a939ada6cc4c8c52f58fd205a2df89d62f19e5b50f50822c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | sag-award-best-cast-in-a-motion-picture | Will "Anora" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards? | 68,324,245 | 68,324,245 |
e7301986b76b35716b7f44fdd4f29eb15ba2e97c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x15109a95a0365314fd7388fe1c16b67961ef41c7dec342fa4bf9e739134e082f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-23 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 23? | 68,324,260 | 68,324,260 |
58dd45e737b9fc32ea1ad376f3d03404edaafc68 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x91ea361f8eba82f49add1e92a2ba5a035d6a2da8b59fab2807bd1042e6614671 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | sag-award-best-actress | Will Demi Moore win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Substance"? | 68,324,264 | 68,324,264 |
eb84541417d32dc3f2b5effed3449d4438fe331f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x1a44173aa869d60e270c696eaffab370a0aaa13bafcdeba5c752530694c687be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 350-399 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on February 23? | 68,324,268 | 68,324,268 |
b51680022fd05bacd0ef20cce5fc982cd332ecbc | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x1678c81a4d5ca2b6f9434266eeb2892a626e908d726d41177bae927deae945ee | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bitcoin be bet... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-24 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 24? | 68,367,352 | 68,367,352 |
042cdbc42da7dfcb32e632592a4123ffd4df33a6 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x833e942aa9adcaca8794e55cb16f0e487155eefed24ddea618a1bd8ef6a1d002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 1100 or more times Feb 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-25 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25? | 68,407,586 | 68,407,586 |
f22d6c43f02a40810066b7a6d0b2d303975aed91 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x38bda5a10263fd30516ea3f6a14263c38e2fd7d7fab2301c22b3e5406644a12b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on February 14? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-february-14 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton w... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-25 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 25? | 68,407,587 | 68,407,587 |
aa50f4f2953b706b412b64945c9604f12c57847d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xc8807325442949e1bfe2cebc0d61833ee11c67440c100690d61f820a1300380e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14-higher-options | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-14? | Event: epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Eve... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 26? | 68,450,157 | 68,450,157 |
c2bca3063ac7b4b3095034fd067198bb1a5e5aab | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5aaf2fd3dbdb3bd110bb30156a5f53a0ad930c57083fecf84ea44ae95d09de3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-02-14? | Event: epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on Febr... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-26 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26? | 68,450,177 | 68,450,177 |
299f9d180c588c850e51c1bc96e9b0ac98a74295 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xfb178547e84095b4a312392a4d703268f372935daec86e5795305db424c3ab00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | Event: epl-bri-che-2025-02-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28? | 68,489,098 | 68,489,098 |
b244b7fe99cb8ef8a8c9a5952bbd4e42ebde46b9 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xd60d41ea7fd69cdb05089d419c99170443247210f087048da1fdd11fc0c02804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-16 | Ch... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-28 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 28? | 68,528,892 | 68,528,892 |
126c433a39811438aa1c35161223d14229d531ef | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5c82c70a813f359b3f3ab15b1e3f43cfa611a619d543a139019e2357f0f254ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-16 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Team Candace win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | Event: 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-28 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on February 28? | 68,528,898 | 68,528,898 |
0e5afce785537cea71b835ebe45a38a185f2f49d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x17883de059871fe57cf994d3568d73fa103c99dbdd40a1427a3c3ff549c881b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Team Candace win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament? | Event: 2025-nba-all-star-game-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-16? | Event: epl-liv-wol-2025-02-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2? | 68,606,271 | 68,606,271 |
44edbd72f621cc416e36441a10f003db91d942bc | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x75a8981659dc4efa2a2bdb4b3d31c5a5827500a2feb19f6a4cb3889893f1485c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-16? | Event: epl-liv-wol-2025-02-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,606,285 | 68,606,285 |
ffc6f59f79721177e4522f36cddb198df5497309 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x448dd50fd404bd2fa1b01c7c014efc253779b68c7eaf3778db4c43c45b197361 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 16? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-16 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Ch... | yes | 1 | oscars-best-animated-feature | Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,606,288 | 68,606,288 |
e64929708c2b355967d4387f40efcb90a9937c30 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf80349b472bf3ba05e7d12a2aa0f66b374978c267fa38c9d659cc3cca948115d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Finland win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | Event: nhl-4-nations-face-off-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | oscars-best-film-editing | Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,606,290 | 68,606,290 |
bacc3fb9bb9afe385e3175f7de06fedc12858ff0 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xa255d1f288224c1eefa5bbb75f7cee16462029e6eb2312083e9afc0f90097b9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Finland win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | Event: nhl-4-nations-face-off-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump post 120-129 times on Truth Social from Feb 14-21? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-posts-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | oscars-best-action-short-film | Will "Anuja" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,606,292 | 68,606,292 |
ea9004c3730d6ed73ca45a97f349638e8d184d29 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x82d01ef0eb41bcd392bcc1831202b15b76b9588e8e446e07ff1ef9cf7b302c57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump post 120-129 times on Truth Social from Feb 14-21? | Event: donald-trump-of-truth-posts-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999489641110121
3. Ques... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on March 2? | 68,606,293 | 68,606,293 |
11d2ddaeb87c0e7349dacd06956f636f6a82666f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xefa63303f9fa7b65f48ad33584ab6147280c1aa82bd16c01738d12b6ce55cdc9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.9999489641110121
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | oscars-best-actress | Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,606,296 | 68,606,296 |
5c4e891458e298c3b4020c70dcceea0008564b82 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6af30ea5d787997c95a9c4bacb44a8a573e003c4ccd54ffae38969371229a8e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Ch... | no | 1 | oscars-best-documentary-short-film | Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,606,299 | 68,606,299 |
5ffeee3eb9fbda65953d58c34bbfe80d7893af81 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x22e504a7512c77cb00e29060820fc532ab864531b31f8d888ee063eaa4ef8820 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 2? | 68,606,302 | 68,606,302 |
86d935eacc5ef801df8000a5facb33a490674f0d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x852c9aae07781a783967d5d5ac1813e637d1a62d5f1691bffefc71d6412a2c67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | Event: nhl-4-nations-face-off-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4? | 68,649,226 | 68,649,226 |
a813b685c11c9279f1a3218615de2c6f849ff167 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x4712500b1925e126bda815a55b4a29a32508ef3303385f02f5a5056783fcd3a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? | Event: nhl-4-nations-face-off-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3? | 68,649,233 | 68,649,233 |
1830fe9e960289988c289fd6f910a42fee713c52 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xa29cdbcb9b93df67dfd6d04c3b4d4cf639b756a400a117b466fa60110f6a032c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4? | 68,649,237 | 68,649,237 |
cbaaaaeea3d5f5c98f451e4dbb4c98c6f0b42e5e | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xda7eb9bc4dbe9b8324785e5590c0cc30f8785e1a76a43a3a06bc171f96d62524 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be be... | no | 1 | oscars-best-picture | Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | 68,649,240 | 68,649,240 |
c3a6da88a63c3445bd1510ea9f24ada961af3014 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x90126993924108e6ea5760cf8ac912c840390ba8959edb5bedd89b979eb56939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-4 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4? | 68,649,245 | 68,649,245 |
5caa00ea50a6ff349c5a205d0142caa0f8d8622c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5025bebf99e52a3fe6a27493c2dbcb508969a105b323ca131c74310efd57a026 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on February 21? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-21 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Ch... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | 68,649,250 | 68,649,250 |
77623b06ed4b566744e173f7589acce24acb6be2 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xbdf5cb93bc18bf5a2b5aec84cd466eb0ba4e1b3309423182307b72cb0c3ed252 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-3 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? | 68,649,250 | 68,649,250 |
96e14c4df3c92d2e412c602abd7d0258cbfcbd3c | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x1a9bfd026f8c5de97760c253e5fecb63e20f4040cb9fcab186e3a45289787989 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 22? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards? | Event: sag-award-best-cast-in-a-motion-pictu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 2? | 68,649,251 | 68,649,251 |
7f3c54c308f05d57e3dc0a060bfafab9dae7f878 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x89af7c478d3ada60ace87b41956f03a216df84f000522dc273c4e1bb6f89a920 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards? | Event: sag-award-best-cast-in-a-motion-picture | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Anora" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards? | Event: sag-award-best-cast-in-a-motion-picture | Choi... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 2? | 68,649,253 | 68,649,253 |
b567c026b68306dd5ba4a4994f0231a0764c0832 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x8bfb199d012368d3fea3ff101687f7952d732e557f57ad7b23ca6d6707444495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Anora" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards? | Event: sag-award-best-cast-in-a-motion-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-23 | Choice: y... | no | 1 | how-long-will-trumps-state-of-the-union-be | Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 70-80 min? | 68,688,612 | 68,688,612 |
f216d98995a5cef2b27d62c1d8215e87d1e8f374 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xae9dae79d56026f5e17bc803787ab04f4afbd8f2164a9d9f03922fd562782511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Demi Moore win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Substance"? | Event: sag-award-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 5? | 68,688,758 | 68,688,778 |
3aac68b3da4be8f0b063616712a73f78d30f33f6 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6f13faf7cea4b767f718c309e471215e2e28d6e6ca77e7d77141bde5e0274261 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Demi Moore win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Substance"? | Event: sag-award-best-actress | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Choice: yes ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | 68,688,765 | 68,688,765 |
96be5cb05e48f0eaae00306b4fa4725bd1382b3e | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xdbb21f3716478f70c7d66870bc1b9d21fae9519143aa3a66bb5a4b4c9ec1e068 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on February 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-febr... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? | 68,688,766 | 68,688,766 |
031adedf62eb7194060887deb6958ca336499fb9 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x7b2a6a81695507858b02e34fb72c0b0092c3bd5a80a78fd13ab855d6eb0138b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 24? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-25 | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 6? | 68,729,520 | 68,729,520 |
2fababe21d97e73916368035d328906bc821486d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x818937e529124e9a1c193a7136ecb8dadea76891e3cb97c6ae549d413383ae31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-25 | Ch... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 6? | 68,729,522 | 68,729,522 |
0b14c874fd3c3aefc907c3473def2b540689ffe3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x6f59424b147ccdac02948c46a724a8d6a3a9544748c4d926784be620de20d1e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 25? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-febr... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? | 68,729,523 | 68,729,523 |
73d1fab28b4a53fa2329d1378cfd7caf598681fe | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xac4629b62509d701e2da4edf5c5e6986079a2a2d0d33a73f43d72ccf17086ce4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-26 | Cho... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5? | 68,729,526 | 68,729,526 |
2008448911c6fbeb60bf03baf447586863100bce | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x1c2bed54ce1daa6e04e936cb0cc224716ff03f7d8b1099a75f6d3f123714a9c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 58°F or higher on February 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-26 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 5? | 68,729,527 | 68,729,527 |
3c20da942aa1bcf63b91f842b1dac4bbe40af8e5 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x753ce422f9c460b3c63966369c76605ac3be7caeaccb8e98bc075e821a508dc8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-21-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? | 68,729,530 | 68,729,530 |
a65df46430390eb08ab2b8c6593ce197d5f62430 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x76b63e28fd148b5e657cf8100da4c1c21d77dcd6e77a652509585274434b5e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on February 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 6? | 68,729,531 | 68,729,531 |
60611a28339553e671de08abf6d7cbd501e4b11f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xe7c9b0160318978c62100f0121a495d50215978ade85fba562f851ed76cc544c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on February 28? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-28 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? | 68,729,535 | 68,729,535 |
587117b2f8d5a45aa0770887d34ee03e9bf2eaec | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xffc6ab6dd2b7b4197c749310328115eeacfbc263cee5dc6379a5b55bf5469e98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on March 5? | 68,729,535 | 68,729,535 |
40aafbb5fdeae4b79484a04dbadc1475a51cf3bb | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x535d459ec59d7c1268f829ca977bccb6ae6aa7bdce686bc70a7ab2c25cbcb397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-feature | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Anora" win B... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on March 6? | 68,775,209 | 68,775,209 |
5e34f29e000a0c84604d1d1a78caf448108b41d0 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xc9d1c97d9aa4aed6b4efaa5ae350d5fd20635af9d897f4d7782d1a4311202f2d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-animated-feature | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-film-editing | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will "Anu... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-7 | Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 7? | 68,775,210 | 68,775,210 |
9194374437c471c21ba2ae2d3cdcc8fd38906fbc | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xbc5ba74408379563c61f8d3899a16587106f798003a72d2530446736d79e8156 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-film-editing | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Anuja" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-action-short-film | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on March 7? | 68,775,212 | 68,775,212 |
cafff4760465db847bcf2101f752e77375a28fe3 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x7da20c51838b7a42d051a9c6a1203ee900b2a9ed5916844c0a3c7ef42126c676 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Anuja" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-action-short-film | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 6? | 68,775,216 | 68,775,216 |
2b9bfd1d1d9700956f2712d34f9fa89694120308 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x8299716225a51d72f7ac73cd37adad314f83060300cdf67d4c97908336f84055 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 6? | 68,775,218 | 68,775,218 |
24552ac752b4aa9be2478f6a17dc724748c194ce | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xb5d4b49cc2d7e5e00f06153cb28316516415f51960ed9d40a58e84580a188c2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-actress | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-documentary-short-film | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-6 | Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 6? | 68,775,220 | 68,775,220 |
b2fd348626913ad10f0d9aad78c605f2ccf4490d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xcd5c4a00a7baba87beddf6f7a2324e48efda315255af724721d3e5f82b3d3a65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-documentary-short-film | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? | 68,810,508 | 68,810,508 |
607d29836d95616ad383143da7bc139f9f645ca5 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xc5b981bc504e6a8ebedf82af96dadb3f4039b4475eb3fd32d0b08c63c90676ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-4 | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-8 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on March 8? | 68,810,548 | 68,810,548 |
b9f89ef1992a7d0c7aaa1ae3cd099aaa2c270070 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x73440eac0037d2b21630d74443cdaefbcf39584676de8e64f616c62d02d6cd9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-4 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on March 7? | 68,810,550 | 68,810,550 |
b4b370cbb38909682e499a579eb55c85af55737b | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xfad45de2effc38b91661f9aa01ff988a0196c7eac18b0e49f743ecd1b105048a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Choice: no | C... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-7 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 7? | 68,810,552 | 68,810,552 |
8831e9a6fcca52f05f70dfac79d13743f9d268ae | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x76cf112a85a10f3e4766fd2068a7cf74becdfb2f6318ecd90e014de8149a944f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-8 | Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? | 68,848,551 | 68,848,551 |
338bd7b57c177725b78b7e4d290c52ada8e0f714 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xab9211e2d2d755eafa6052bdaa28cb1d5075c990f9c3b5828629d2981176ba75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Event: oscars-best-picture | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 10? | 68,893,538 | 68,893,538 |
663c916e7c11c6e483c5804814a781a36b85bccc | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xf510a8b1fff2b141a1d9c8a18e4af66846d425b842da46aeb341dc0224d5e967 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or below on March 9? | 68,893,540 | 68,893,540 |
cc9b3653c82c4321f855fbab1949dbc22db3ee33 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x43f40a10a22c74bb455519762e459e8da038702b2d8c68ceeb46fab3f3269152 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-3 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 10? | 68,893,547 | 68,893,547 |
b1e0a148ef472c3190c32ba60bb277dba19ea86f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x66e0124971486306948823be90d5d1fadcff5c0be38a952aca88a2718885b576 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-3 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 9? | 68,893,549 | 68,893,549 |
b78049340273a19e4333d971ab7a2ef21e32411d | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xec103e56f59575d0dd0af8dbb36d2808d8a111b4f1621ee3f004024e4be10ec4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-9 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 9? | 68,893,552 | 68,893,552 |
18dee443ed5085d109eb8ddf3c8e9372a80154fd | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xff08411ab271c73fdac964328d4bcb421dcf73a8ff0029d1475d807c90ad17c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 70-80 min? | Event: how-long-will-trumps-state-of-the-union-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-9 | Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on March 9? | 68,893,554 | 68,893,554 |
d52e480eb146f31ee2661382b04b7bb43e94c103 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x21329b19033b18e1cb42f9eab35b64ed7596895add3117ba721443daa2d6e398 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 70-80 min? | Event: how-long-will-trumps-state-of-the-union-be | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidenc... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 10? | 68,929,674 | 68,929,674 |
8f5f2e896672e57033a897f9813aa8cc0f000326 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xae95e5b6347dc6323a74bc4269008f3d97a9e3164ed81d68becdd83583e9bc91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice:... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 11? | 68,929,677 | 68,929,677 |
5785164ba066334c58350594d8434eff789b5ddf | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x1947602a2d01b7ecc7d9e9d20c856fcda722e1544009f8b531b9ab4c3f9f75d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Choice: no | ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on March 11? | 68,968,900 | 68,968,900 |
0c3edf8d9c94699cd45d189d81ffa43ed463987f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x78242205bfbf3956373aac0681777f94b89a68e49405dee2cba300356a5e7516 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confid... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-11 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 67°F or higher on March 11? | 68,968,904 | 68,968,904 |
76456095c254023fb5da933a6e6f9f2b02614054 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0xa71e9fe445379ccfc4404edc5c215e4c9ab4175ef439b746fcb50b5910ccdde6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confiden... | yes | 1 | cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | 69,051,761 | 69,051,761 |
f85a905952c33a03627beb1cfdcaad9e5249bd07 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x5b9b80714b83d25158028365606f742943fc4c8b7f6cf0f1299d2b237412ac36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 6? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confiden... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-mar-7-14 | Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? | 69,051,763 | 69,051,763 |
83146285ff243c1bd4bb139fbc2e84621ea1e300 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x2f9f585b5f816394fc36677d676ab643cb7b05b6db31a0bdb7e6338fc33c93ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confide... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? | 69,051,766 | 69,051,766 |
d0d90bfe8a9e6ada05639910e726100d15283f1f | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x4e720ef02e20df66202c30f53d4d1b233ebe4fd6da023b2468026f4f29102ac1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-march-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? | 69,051,768 | 69,051,768 |
db9aa8d8ccceab8b94b6004628409cc219a69575 | 0x173459dffdab6353d315dffa206cf9d8888fddd4 | 0x9f42d74215e67bd4f6dfecd8d3661107ba7280fc6432410f5378ef53049d921b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on March 5? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-march-5 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-28-mar-7 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-march-13 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 13? | 69,051,770 | 69,051,770 |
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