sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6e0844f4544784ee175cc6e6de034cf80fd07c1c | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb7d9378e2e874f17584e1ec8dace8cd416eea7fba0ad59574ec4ca78181ada57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $145 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.24598043182343127
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $460 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.016466145604636866
3. Question: Will Ope... | yes | 0.801988 | nflx-week-november-28-2025 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,907 | 79,747,477 |
fabb5b41d703b5de60351b2442931d7be3644dcd | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x5a049ac6af8bf6e56e70f19d750dbe24beaa7f11e3f0b903524d2a883758b7d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $460 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-tsla-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.016466145604636866
2. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 24 above $7.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will N... | no | 0.506591 | nvda-week-november-28-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,907 | 79,747,478 |
f75e60c44c8925a939fc79982463b4775ee9cae7 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x9e8a489e0acb804be1d1f7e9d6e4c9c413c9e73b357c221095f73da7c59b470c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of November 24 above $7.50? | Event: open-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 24 above $175? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will N... | no | 0.577007 | nflx-week-november-28-2025 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,907 | 79,747,478 |
9918333185dfff1d438f26428cf038a6b8f6973e | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x1fb178f0a1ec88b5e888a901f345dfa1cd15f1aa934b6e41f987354750d878d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 24 above $175? | Event: nvda-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Event: nvda-week-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Co... | no | 0 | rklb-above-on-november-28-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) finish week of November 24 above $43? | 79,542,907 | 79,747,479 |
64b2f3478afff92857d7dc95f2af2f94ceda526c | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xb080e9c4db991bc9556f5c17d4c5922fe338fd90c0c9abaa3e44f2f45fd56088 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Event: nvda-week-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.1004566210045662
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$146 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Ev... | no | 0.904762 | nvda-week-november-28-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,907 | 79,747,479 |
06c00c24687e8cbfe0ec3705d52a63c5346cac29 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x8cce14ed8d40adf3a7c19abd85180a7e71d3df0263291018a0f262b01ef4e131 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$146 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Event: pltr-week-november-28-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.33772652388797364
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $152? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 ... | yes | 1 | what-will-nflx-hit-before-2026 | Will Netflix (NFLX) hit $100 before 2026?? | 79,542,907 | 79,753,376 |
62df5e6108e8af4af6c8eb65262fd171de4ef557 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x9d1aede9ac4ed521ca339976f90c668d2e09bf93138aca43a2cbacff5370cb47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $152? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $230 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finis... | yes | 0.067814 | what-will-nflx-hit-before-2026 | Will Netflix (NFLX) hit $130 before 2026?? | 79,542,907 | 79,753,376 |
e19180f02adfe7b89603a7760951473c7cd6e416 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x195dc0446f6f3b30651f220827cefcc017380aeb8b872971d29102f8fc1d4222 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $230 before 2026?? | Event: what-will-nvda-hit-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 24 above $405? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finis... | yes | 0.996008 | tsla-week-november-28-2025 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $410-$415 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,907 | 79,834,060 |
55467921650e31d701fa497af6570776110443dd | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x3cf1658aa15db255f5485b1cdd8ead83649d7afc0b954805925f1e7fb973ac3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of November 24 above $405? | Event: tsla-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $150? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Will Pal... | no | 0.677499 | nvda-week-november-28-2025 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,907 | 79,834,060 |
bf360e400e930907de9275eebadb067e01445ed9 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0x9f9a8d493ca76dfa7f250f8053135f506b5a3dbb071d604a86948ff009d8ad0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 24 above $150? | Event: pltr-above-on-november-28-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close at >$164 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Event: pltr-week-november-28-2025 | Choice: yes | C... | yes | 0.287059 | open-week-november-28-2025 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,542,907 | 79,834,060 |
f45bb8767f57b46cb56c82b5f6514272084f55a7 | 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac | 0xbdb8bdad5d46321ec64f3bec25eaf5ee7f7c84ddae10945c572509af2263e4f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palantir (PLTR) close at >$164 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | Event: pltr-week-november-28-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.46142660398698193
2. Question: Will Opendoor reach $9.75 in November? | Event: what-price-will-open-hit-in-november-2025 | Choice: ... | no | 0.019523 | rklb-week-november-28-2025 | Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at $42-$44 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28? | 79,747,477 | 79,834,058 |
599931ee712351cfe793d3075df6dd39ef8c07e8 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xe25fd03804a86ea890f5cb4ac7af98c9ce86e397f1547693071ffe4db924d23e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1?
Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | 72,683,690 | 72,683,690 |
36f9c08e502a6887506e254b4ad504c92025d72b | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x9bef22c5cf4b6f92395318173ad43bb93f763d7d641ef134af0edde44d38a378 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2?
Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the targe... | yes | 1 | nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | 72,995,136 | 72,995,136 |
b602e0f6d76c4b4e4defbb421508996edc23e43f | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xd8e1295a7b627b8f1f08380f7836796d71f793192ecd8bc6179378dcf83b9495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Che... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,222,843 | 73,222,843 |
5e5bd5174f802495b1e2763c5d311c92bb76b88a | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x08a60fc0baa238514d61ef47420c779559eb4caf98561365b8d4347cf03b84c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,407,208 | 73,407,208 |
74dcf7373cf57e75d26f450c321f87f2e319da23 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x1109cffdb929ac94c22e21adc65b1a0838638fb47a5ad85c27a8f2739ca1bf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-g-winner-715 | Will Juventus win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,407,208 | 73,407,208 |
c16d29f36e3e50fa14f08d0f30e3dc455b9ca2e9 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x76d8528b6e474cf79b6a392a1c37dac4fdcb56244b2327bd939ca9c5d85ba538 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,407,208 | 73,407,208 |
979a10aec3b2c70339cf985db745e5b34734c3bd | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x0984cebeb2fb4c7cffd7feab54e465eaf0a327dcaf00cb4162a0a07941b0658f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,502,733 | 73,502,733 |
706f50baae989a5ec875e02641ec66cdd0e4efc8 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x0d09f8cb4ac601074c02828328a893fdab030ece3ca682faaef89d82c43daec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
45812e954bc7400987f9e57447f019c5081c3ebf | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x17c9e9c952be43752e6c24cb11f8c6ffc6ecc976e307dbcebac2f628a0aca27a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | no | 1 | bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
c039f3bf4dc67505528b188fc6f9520172002e52 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x4734131f69900bb758edf2df048cd02d65d068707a1184cbee4a09c6d704af74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | sea-lec-mil-2025-08-29 | Will Lecce win on 2025-08-29? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
15004a9eb6d72250b9faf14c7d1af62d8dc12c9d | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x4c2ed3b1215cb1b6190a61dad5426b01783bb4e415df066086747f07f9c48c85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | sea-cre-sas-2025-08-29 | Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-29? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
1e7056849d85cca6291e3be3964b93cb3db1c580 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x812d8819cda5c57e824719de0381d8e207a45b5b71da31a6425f6c2f181a3fc4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
babcc19e928e677bc3517f20de015634584ac876 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x8bac2b3fc99ec45f644c7cd3eb0f631762025302f793e25e388d14968ab001b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-pau-2025-08-29 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
3a93e01337354cc1c03aaf88712d16859280ed79 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xa9868cc96fc4f4a3754f1af1cd4210e7e43e8d3d8e75617dd1af1ca77b4e5e3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | no | 1 | june-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
f24d2e98e90400526005601fdb461b9b3e5ba267 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xc57b23dedcece1872e59e87a9bba2a3eb6c0a91290076cd01a4c1bfe2be83daf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | lal-bil-ray-2025-08-25 | Will Athletic Club vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
100b2b6d396d1c36a3d6462b537763c598f63e3b | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xe453294107599650363e440f770779cef9ab4a30976ae7ce9814e22dcaa7bc87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | no | 1 | sea-int-tor-2025-08-25 | Will Inter win on 2025-08-25? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
c945d2806e6981dc454664d79701134fa08a8cc8 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xe5db53bb45338e2f20949af7e5ddc04e094c33cb91fda6fb9ebbdf44fc1174a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | no | 1 | epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | 75,835,525 | 75,835,525 |
c95eaa5808f8913ceeb4e6ce75bf265d61dd2d2a | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x96ebfc091f29565f6b931b9a913073af8b0132f2315920830420d909f70c5602 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ful-2025-08-30 | Will Fulham win on 2025-08-30? | 75,847,174 | 75,847,174 |
4fe382a3f04a83ca98cfe9bd4a58419dba1866eb | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x279f22d30ee277a4be72260ae1c9bb1532c3fff92b33b4c1c4336dd4e1776de6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-nashville-sc-vs-atlanta-united | MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Nashville SC? | 75,878,047 | 75,878,047 |
45807e545664d6c07513b76488d2ff32e603ea7f | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x969ed0d206ac3e0c89b4dd6927c2efbe0faa0f4c7fbc52f0b4c19039330d56c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | mls-soccer-new-york-city-fc-vs-dc-united | MLS: Will D.C. United beat New York City FC? | 75,878,047 | 75,878,047 |
126f84c9616198d1707bb78239f348cbcbba1e45 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xaa2014664918ee59e5d435789ae64d805f3fe27c6deb7cbdeeb38ce33648faeb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | 75,885,900 | 75,885,900 |
46be18450ca6926a31539ed4770537bce683f5e3 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x30466cfb32f3a8fc811e04c0aa6d7480501db55a0d9ea772f0d48ddfb8ea92b8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-cry-2025-09-20 | Will West Ham win on 2025-09-20? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
745e9f807e3bd4b08f7947696bf5dbf8966f2f31 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x5044799805e335c7353a583ff3b40af42b241eb3f813dd6fdcfa00d891db2d97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-lee-2025-09-20 | Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
32d711f189c3e2c3860ddd9152955a02421177f6 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
7250754e3de520a5462ed4ff50ac5023baf2072e | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x7eb8a53fcfff7c0b0d925e00f6f849452144a1b32b2f26029ecda502cfe74eb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | no | 1 | uel-rbs-por-2025-09-25 | Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
b8fa5d937f2e722d7e03a420ee71cfb4507fa5b7 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xab596d09a74b8280b502622a3e46b6297166cdb8c724285de7beea40f0219c77 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | mls-phi-ner-2025-09-20 | Will New England Revolution win on 2025-09-20? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
77ec8a7d11a4ee58cca57217d5bd263bc1ebee5c | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xb458f438b3d40cb4a035bfa732458de577ec6ccdbde4d350bb848cde01d2d717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-tot-2025-09-20 | Will Brighton win on 2025-09-20? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
26b2fb4f72164c0500a4e95c406300f5c91a9cb0 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xb45ae5d24048681b67faa82d493880eabdca8469f9b803ede192b5890bd4d102 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | mls-lag-fcc-2025-09-20 | Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
7546e34ecbef50e2b899bb7440c685a1fce38cdd | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xe832031ac500da9d753970e7f1a481f923e0026202d316e34b1fbf618431bdbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | mls-atl-sdg-2025-09-20 | Will Atlanta United FC win on 2025-09-20? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
1c81a99b9b23d393d125d5611c715fb420c96b03 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xfa989a9b1d3fad4242d46b5128b1d852ea27acd06d003e8eeaeaed869055f7f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | mls-skc-vwh-2025-09-20 | Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2025-09-20? | 77,004,192 | 77,004,192 |
d1b00bf429333a95e3884c3fdee37c36c1ebde6b | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x2bc03b18ce206770af9dcc089494fbc85d8500f845fbe267acbf1840a8656ed1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-1? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win Grou... | yes | 1 | lal-ala-elc-2025-10-05 | Will Alaves win on 2025-10-05? | 77,300,449 | 77,300,449 |
3b240497e10df4a862cf35f15cb9d76e4b48e430 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x57427bc04459258cc5d2fa57d363ced858dac9849836a761f553b7c7546f2169 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2? | Event: nba-finals-thunder-vs-pacers-series-outcome | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Hil... | yes | 1 | epl-eve-cry-2025-10-05 | Will Everton win on 2025-10-05? | 77,300,449 | 77,300,449 |
b29b060c5a44974decaca9a7ba4204bb8d077756 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x6903a7bd20f6d204d5d7c76b2c53be1a6ac8458a5695aaf3ffc87336a4d2e26f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-d-winner-286 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-bri-2025-10-05 | Will Wolves vs. Brighton end in a draw? | 77,300,449 | 77,300,449 |
74be60394f453bcc0acf3b29d1f0dc031f3942c4 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xae3037a42665656caaef5793379b0369df9129828617a660d45e301a6551154b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-h-winner-457 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-g-winner-715 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | ucl-mad-fra-2025-09-30 | Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-30? | 77,300,491 | 77,300,491 |
aad674209a30a6383e42e6ea037fe1ec7f4359df | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xeecdd46e55ec419b85f846465c0c8f65c8818c0167082443afae62080c334396 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-g-winner-715 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 1 | sea-rom-ver-2025-09-28 | Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-28? | 77,300,491 | 77,300,491 |
1a2a7febd90fdaf352919dc759d696cffc610b36 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x69e7d0a6c65aedb82640592321e1247bde6c954078c7bfbf4d795ffaaa605032 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases intere... | yes | 1 | bun-moe-fre-2025-10-05 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-05? | 77,307,568 | 77,307,568 |
3227b74c9903528fd4ac00e7691a95f5bf34c101 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x9779a6b719a57b01598f4bc59f684b2b326c44a369f3d7666f8708cab03834d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bayern München win on 20... | yes | 1 | lal-esp-bet-2025-10-05 | Will Espanyol vs. Real Betis end in a draw? | 77,307,568 | 77,307,568 |
227f68d654abf1d1d67025e2cdae89a63cce2bd7 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xd9335b9a8706bc1277854620330e262e5563654d49e1bbaa32fa0e4797fc30ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | Event: bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-08-29? | Event:... | yes | 1 | bun-hsv-mai-2025-10-05 | Will Hamburger SV vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? | 77,307,568 | 77,307,568 |
64240f1e0c22ddbc23dd4615fa70b97327fc2f80 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xf23e9de3124945b800e5ee05c572c91e4e9e791d99fcd5c0eeaefb44222f148a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? | Event: bun-bay-lei-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-08-29? | Event: sea-lec-mil-2025-08-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-29? | Event: sea-cre-sas-2025-08... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-mac-2025-10-05 | Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? | 77,307,568 | 77,307,568 |
b3bdce98bd1bfc29bf7ee41ca62e15485298c92f | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xa014ee8f001f2b8e6f1ce3e7af5cf8bfa200fe90cab2aaedd5cad71797cdce8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lecce win on 2025-08-29? | Event: sea-lec-mil-2025-08-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-29? | Event: sea-cre-sas-2025-08-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | ... | yes | 1 | lal-cel-mad-2025-10-05 | Will Celta Vigo vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? | 77,327,235 | 77,327,235 |
131b313faa820305de6fedec213044847e411daa | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x2fdf2ff33ab62240f0c7c384759ddbc38abc0aba243dd466c315b16733e6f12c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-29? | Event: sea-cre-sas-2025-08-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-2... | yes | 1 | mls-vwh-sje-2025-10-05 | Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2025-10-05? | 77,327,244 | 77,327,244 |
4ff331fcbc6bdd8666e4978b910c4ba19f702b62 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x6952bb5959b361c3cf69ba016e6d32f2a6b9818b214de2e20e3799777c8d8fab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-july | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29? | Event: bun-hsv-pau-2025-08-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% o... | yes | 1 | sea-juv-mil-2025-10-05 | Will Juventus win on 2025-10-05? | 77,327,244 | 77,327,244 |
2fd5112f7ab71e553dd14992f807e52254bfd783 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x9d2c8518d304461ac7a6072f6cb294d802ad6791b8a00d981be901f2caad0147 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-29? | Event: bun-hsv-pau-2025-08-29 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a d... | yes | 1 | mls-laf-atl-2025-10-05 | Will Atlanta United FC win on 2025-10-05? | 77,327,244 | 77,327,244 |
c1b0bd1a8a20d3d6dd72b1bf0cefd22f62f811eb | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x108e32b6a95c60032d8a02ab1bc735ac8f7fe7d87e93264b2cfc4462fd674431 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June? | Event: june-inflation-annual | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-ray-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-08-25? | ... | no | 1 | rus-spa-ros-2025-10-18 | Will FK Rostov win on 2025-10-18? | 77,852,953 | 77,852,953 |
fc4d908cbeef37f7a563b798728b6de49b10afad | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x899119d6e5c5f78433bf61d9376ecdb2f7e604fd64e08b5ab794afd453aa497d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Athletic Club vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? | Event: lal-bil-ray-2025-08-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-08-25? | Event: sea-int-tor-2025-08-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025... | yes | 1 | rus-spa-ros-2025-10-18 | Will FK Spartak Moskva vs. FK Rostov end in a draw? | 77,852,953 | 77,852,953 |
0ef63280e36acf46f23b01d46fa509a52f78ba99 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x33671e6d3d56cd921ac14e3a1adf1722a4f8459c9280aacbe847af336105cf38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter win on 2025-08-25? | Event: sea-int-tor-2025-08-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-che-ful-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | ... | yes | 1 | lal-vil-bet-2025-10-18 | Will Villarreal vs. Real Betis end in a draw? | 77,859,897 | 77,859,897 |
f6ef44a26b748acecb9cb278e5ff6aff6f200fa3 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xaa34e877c4e4a5f1aa033b8598b6172887faeeb85b549788a83ae1a7ded5de9c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? | Event: epl-wes-che-2025-08-22 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-che-ful-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Nashville SC? | Event: mls-soccer-nashville-sc-... | no | 1 | arg-rie-iac-2025-10-20 | Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2025-10-20? | 77,969,899 | 77,969,899 |
d1d8da70d5b3fdf729ef6d8bc26bb13024dff542 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0xa85cb237cb9d9cfb6590c43ef77766d24d20fd203d60929edbffc5c70df95c7d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fulham win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-che-ful-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Nashville SC? | Event: mls-soccer-nashville-sc-vs-atlanta-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat New York City FC? ... | yes | 1 | sud-unc-lan-2025-10-23 | Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. CA Lanús end in a draw? | 78,097,434 | 78,097,434 |
da10215e9730f51a6aaadfadbe5b340ddff4a96f | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x89e4e30662abfff32397d60f76cd94808baee83aea009ecae0cf72785df4a53a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will Atlanta United beat Nashville SC? | Event: mls-soccer-nashville-sc-vs-atlanta-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-soccer-new-york-city-fc-vs-dc-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves w... | yes | 1 | sea-par-com-2025-10-25 | Will Parma vs. Como end in a draw? | 78,165,627 | 78,165,627 |
f17f0d7c91fedbb850858ba1446e707bd83b2208 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x0fb910f988120dea820d25404e9826e5902c3dad8daf75e2327ab4a16f6c4d1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: MLS: Will D.C. United beat New York City FC? | Event: mls-soccer-new-york-city-fc-vs-dc-united | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl... | yes | 1 | bun-b04-fre-2025-10-26 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-26? | 78,201,741 | 78,201,741 |
83f879c5d00a0ecae564ad60a2dc17e03aee553b | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x19b7b8653bc9b155667844a7b9b4334fdbd926723b8757fb25191d789150a862 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-08-30? | Event: epl-wol-eve-2025-08-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-wes-cry-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-wol-lee-2025-09-20 | Choice: ye... | no | 1 | tur-gfk-fen-2025-10-27 | Will Gaziantep FK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? | 78,250,231 | 78,250,231 |
e25799b63d0b1ac276e7f9242f66a22bd8537ca8 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x7455acc612c2e5028d7dca9e0b63472a9e05ebc6f0ec01d4c6672fc79b6e7f91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will West Ham win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-wes-cry-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-wol-lee-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Eve... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-october-21-october-28 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | 78,250,727 | 78,250,727 |
6cff3fb68839d7c889dc266a175603aa4756ea1f | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x61cba34d92474b5a5aeb87967f964e3ee57a252e1c6a9debb520fa82a58b3664 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20? | Event: epl-wol-lee-2025-09-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? | ... | yes | 1 | mls-fcc-clb-2025-10-27 | Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? | 78,273,141 | 78,273,141 |
31eaee4f66adee00ea84a1ef4db3f1c48721d0f2 | 0x175b9f89fb9f36d7f4044effb833e237c012b14c | 0x6b4902482016a9eab1833df7458d97a58e757d022b690cbf93723236ac019184 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-decision-in-september | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? | Event: uel-rbs-por-2025-09-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will New England Revolution win on... | yes | 1 | mls-clt-nyc-2025-10-28 | Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-28? | 78,317,050 | 78,317,050 |
e5a850eb700d1b356ea50b58e027c21b7394093a | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x027eeeaba097b5f3b166eace64668b2e6b327acc7c6b314ae5f03b33b51425e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | 78,615,409 | 78,615,409 |
a199f0f7b99159a6413cb2d39b02469a6f8e9048 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x6a275bccfc2f3f09731fcde02291d06673d7540cbb120ddd0a56ae7a39ef0e38 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025
Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025
Predic... | yes | 1 | virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | 78,615,445 | 78,615,445 |
3542573c5e92fbf9111d69b25798fed15fbd584c | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | new-york-city-mayoral-election | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 78,615,494 | 78,615,494 |
5fee1e08aa72d634558ef8638ceec8ad633986af | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xd0307ba1b02f5ac0e3f9c09a47471542520afea49079bb497dd896734c3313ab | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | 78,746,787 | 78,746,787 |
0451517bafd3dce8098271aad6db30103b7c00a0 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xe4cd5d15445ff3bbeb97e1746953d64d6b8dfc966d40b4261862ac77f867f534 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | ja2-ehi-vva-2025-11-08 | Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11-08? | 78,747,858 | 78,747,858 |
a155ed80e76d7ba3218f140b982ea91844ee5162 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x2a72dd6c85ec88acd03459564e4fe94b5799311902e561523c9b95ef3f02aa5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Will Doran (Choi Hyeon-joon) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | 78,804,270 | 78,804,270 |
1a3966806fd4961a4d744b68921e6879c4be85d8 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x84366701794731971cb37401645575953142477abe138a9319a12e6081616f15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-november-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 10? | 78,874,953 | 78,874,953 |
2416c86a456c0c3c78eb9957c8856c214ce45414 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xec21462ef58f792b5c1ff07bfdc66401b631c6fb42562ccceb2de279f0e73788 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545 | Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | 78,917,018 | 78,917,018 |
5dc4898c68d46fd10e17b01cda44216b2e57fcc3 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x215762d3a8acef8e868326e04dfc531a07b57ed52c59e5df8894c5a1592d3479 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-aze-isl-2025-11-13 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-11-13? | 78,986,337 | 78,986,337 |
7370d8d05098050541ee099cdaf06c37397616f9 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xefbfb13a7bb5b8c397e40e54bd9306e1499bbc062db3daf8cfea320d50b06cda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | caf-nga-gab-2025-11-13 | Will Nigeria win on 2025-11-13? | 78,986,337 | 78,986,337 |
f85bbd3622f6e2ade29da823b9d5057f920452a8 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x4bcfcecb78e94e2ea0d5e2a65c2e7cda249a41168c981dd84457f7675b7354a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-ire-prt-2025-11-13 | Will Republic of Ireland vs. Portugal end in a draw? | 78,993,946 | 78,993,946 |
67faacc9766912667bbe44ffbfedaeb1be441f7b | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x658a6b83802fa9154bcb7e2517db62059d0d733bbffbb7bbba74d4e099b6f2d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | uef-and-alb-2025-11-13 | Will Albania win on 2025-11-13? | 78,993,946 | 78,993,946 |
fdd8c7395722b29f2a896dbf48262e8aa4c9cefc | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x2cbabf694ea8a6ae1d6577783efdae3c7e1ddf648621abd4bf2cdb21350ce5ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Croatia win on 2025-11-14? | 79,034,712 | 79,034,712 |
6b9d8221aede5ce7300905f4cc99a618a52bb429 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x36425c098c5069c521b6d12fb57e8b5f4ef3701c5d43d7a4a583597c02d7da74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? | 79,034,712 | 79,034,712 |
0f91e2ba1fd45c183dda88938490b6e0ce6f197a | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x45a3883121261dec24f63ac4cdf545c40d2c6fc87113f518ccb66ef86b2a839c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-11-14? | 79,034,712 | 79,034,712 |
ef7aacca1aaeac170565b39bdb50182c79fde253 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x5de19b0b1b06973722a18e4553fc66946b32413d4baff3a3cc0cf13c7a970846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-svk-nir-2025-11-14 | Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,034,712 | 79,034,712 |
cbe2164e5b2e40cc8a935de80b331e5b21f175d0 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xb8f33ce07944c0865d4bf865ff489b37051ee0a3a5931080c932cbf754014083 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-hrv-far-2025-11-14 | Will Croatia vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw? | 79,034,712 | 79,034,712 |
c3c7bfd5637cb4408bc2bb81cb315f24d8362baf | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xcc14160a924394312c29ddd81d3bdb1beff7a15a423a8b4627e9b6bd608b0fe2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-pol-nld-2025-11-14 | Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? | 79,034,712 | 79,034,712 |
f9ac86c7f9cb4dfdecf92ab752b7e27eeb8532c0 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x43944939e7b1c83671b721c4d984c883f893a024937c9b3fe615ab3e1a928e00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-aze-fra-2025-11-16 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-11-16? | 79,115,099 | 79,115,099 |
6f366c57c5ed7a3a3acf378cf5b040c890e77ab4 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x9eec02338e4ca65b2ce072092b3b1e9c3b455f5985df8ec837046e3a0711731f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will Albania win on 2025-11-16? | 79,115,099 | 79,115,099 |
7555aeeeb8c7861d9c9f6d835705ea7c5890770e | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xa663e4d39afc374bda02c089e528071e03981456a64b902b63f004b0740ad66f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-hun-ire-2025-11-16 | Will Hungary win on 2025-11-16? | 79,115,099 | 79,115,099 |
c1847d9b6776209053e27a1d9e9076632eeb2fd6 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xaa35bfbb79fdee6ec8c659ba3fffefa8fc23e37683ba410f118f56ac6c2a5ba1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | uef-alb-eng-2025-11-16 | Will England win on 2025-11-16? | 79,115,099 | 79,115,099 |
2976ba72b9418b2d5e5cd7ed950d501a77436d61 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xc3c138f815042f976092a71455549286e7d4959ec44e5946eaf9b53640ea22f5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | uef-prt-arm-2025-11-16 | Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16? | 79,115,099 | 79,115,099 |
706e6501debe6d098a80939f43f001434493868a | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x53b534c9b58749572ff9f89c7fa6b97b25d2121e47437d28ef392c61c58baf48 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-isr-mol-2025-11-16 | Will Moldova win on 2025-11-16? | 79,133,225 | 79,133,225 |
dacf9fa123ad8ae4c71f4f4760b9cf293bf0c335 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x0953f0c1287d7922962bec0a79ba29db574bcbf0f0025ffab2eeb20a3015fe26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | uef-nld-lit-2025-11-17 | Will Netherlands vs. Lithuania end in a draw? | 79,162,398 | 79,162,398 |
53febc817295c94c459ce67200f859adfebcbf4c | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x4627b7b2de8227944a034f33f13355c599b8aa49e6a465c39c31abba8a0a42e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | uef-mal-pol-2025-11-17 | Will Poland win on 2025-11-17? | 79,162,398 | 79,162,398 |
33e10a382d5f213e86b7d88992a8dc6adb444e4d | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xb9c84b4e6360657c1f854274f96a2e8beee66be05bbb9f3edd7d6783d62445e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | fif-jpn-bol-2025-11-18 | Will Bolivia win on 2025-11-18? | 79,187,395 | 79,187,395 |
323c814e4afaa2329683a19b9166f98a07b39948 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x86d011ac6d25ffc179248bb336df3295cb1023f6132bf31d0bfc33b062cb307b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | bra-cor1-sao-2025-11-20 | Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-11-20? | 79,304,472 | 79,304,472 |
d53aebc7e15c656e53af2518b5e9639e2157bd21 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xcbb22e3cbdaeef0ad0a80b914336249e987e93f2a8fdd41cbbb2567928419f3b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 0.326531 | spl-kho-haz-2025-11-21 | Will Al Hazem SC win on 2025-11-21? | 79,329,184 | 79,329,184 |
34fef2893a454154b699b9030f0fd0ef100cbb7c | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xdbe19d8e22866bade94ae85d59a11749100de7b9dd6655527ff54cbb4dd1584e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | spl-kho-haz-2025-11-21 | Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21? | 79,329,184 | 79,329,184 |
bdb73eb4b8e6ba1002df8d4505b4fc737866b827 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xe093d9d5a1e2e8d724193176615633ba1039e1f992fadeeddc201a72ce8bca43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Event: new-jersey-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Co... | no | 1 | ere-her1-az-2025-11-23 | Will SC Heerenveen vs. AZ end in a draw? | 79,405,096 | 79,405,096 |
225410beadc875413988b301b5b580e33b7033ba | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xea0aa58b264d7292da2ffd5209138bbe342586f04ef59448a9e19f0025e5379c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Abigail Spanberger win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 | Event: virginia-governor-election-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | elc-swe-she-2025-11-23 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-11-23? | 79,406,725 | 79,406,725 |
4d9690fd30b6a61a08f7d0cce2ad1a9d7c09f62f | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xfd2095c45a47bc171df101eb38b42451c6ea2ff0731682ad21b8b76689c55965 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Event: new-york-city-mayoral-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11... | yes | 1 | tur-goz-koc-2025-11-23 | Will Göztepe SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? | 79,406,725 | 79,406,725 |
9c6aa93810f81c47c53ae16d559f095a28a01c60 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0x8060c7b6ab0216970eb28e5509e19a9c06ba64b6e4940f316a559b7a185ea747 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kashima Antlers win on 2025-11-08? | Event: jap-kas-yok-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ja2-ehi-vva-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Doran (Choi Hyeon-joon) be named MVP in the 2025 Leag... | no | 1 | epl-lee-ast-2025-11-23 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-11-23? | 79,417,812 | 79,417,812 |
263a5ade957ecc2f276e93d99218459a222bbe97 | 0x1787b014311089d74fb16e5ab9d1c4b0aee4c311 | 0xf6e4398b6bbe2542b14c25592eba29591f966d3543316c52feb80a8eba7a29c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2025-11-08? | Event: ja2-ehi-vva-2025-11-08 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Doran (Choi Hyeon-joon) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? | Event: league-of-legends-world-championship-mvp | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3.... | no | 1 | epl-ars-tot-2025-11-23 | Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? | 79,417,812 | 79,417,812 |
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