sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d67d2ddbf01d818fde03548cc79fe809439045ed | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x95b3372aa8a669891864a4275ddcffb1b769becfa94ed28544f8dbce06eb4e83 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-10-19? | Event: arg-cas-vel-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-csc-bot-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-nan-lil-2025-... | yes | 1 | uel-scb1-crv1-2025-10-23 | Will SC Braga win on 2025-10-23? | 78,086,040 | 78,086,040 |
6cab6faa886e1f52742a3df0ae4596fb3cbb5393 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x9a12438e995726cbb698ead0e828ff348b7354487d1747d1ca58948e3a76c029 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-csc-bot-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-tou-met-2025-10-19 |... | yes | 1 | uel-cel3-stu4-2025-10-23 | Will Celtic FC win on 2025-10-23? | 78,086,040 | 78,086,040 |
e6cdc7d251a30213bd85e25f698fb2158deede6c | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0xa26ac375eabcaf287a9ee25a71a067125f388b510fed679510aad6797a1007bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-nan-lil-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-tou-met-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-fla-pal-2025-10-19 |... | yes | 1 | uel-scf1-utr1-2025-10-23 | Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? | 78,086,040 | 78,086,040 |
c18099764a233f76693c56e3c0f0d07aba352409 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0xfa6a142bd5a90179c48ae9084a3e360c01675508ae8bd58bb94071ed4b60c477 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-10-19? | Event: fl1-tou-met-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-fla-pal-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | ... | yes | 1 | uel-lyo1-bas1-2025-10-23 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-23? | 78,086,040 | 78,086,040 |
932efd09f4ba730635cc6965d94cd04b0e59e4f9 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x17d98f09c6a309865f9151c0f89412f31afd07afd25cc2073e59832fc1ccfea0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bra-fla-pal-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-10-19? | Event: spl-kha-riy-202... | yes | 1 | epl-lee-wes-2025-10-24 | Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24? | 78,193,637 | 78,193,637 |
7c42981821a10b944af9f401b4a664774a5ce941 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x1b0ec1837dbb55c9cc459e7c16025b07f803497f6ba001f548d90731a5d022cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? | Event: sea-mil-fio-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-10-19? | Event: spl-kha-riy-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-10-19? | Event: arg... | yes | 1 | epl-new-ful-2025-10-25 | Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25? | 78,193,637 | 78,193,637 |
c2ae52037b21365263dcfd623759107429c54df2 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x54d73cf1a9e5f6c791f953ea0f286808b9e08f262d9c7bf5ff33f4cb79309bf8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-10-19? | Event: spl-kha-riy-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-10-19? | Event: arg-est-gim-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2025-10-19? | Even... | yes | 1 | mls-mia-nas-2025-10-24 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24? | 78,193,637 | 78,193,637 |
88b355cbd85b5cf398b65775e8f60545a5dd0e62 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x7e0f01cd95c28d2699259d70026370333982734d5c951d084e7e56be7498097a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-10-19? | Event: arg-est-gim-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: nor-str-ffk-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bun... | yes | 1 | fl1-sbr-psg-2025-10-25 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,193,637 | 78,193,637 |
ce04a149a610083040b0f6cbb09fa2f1036fb7f5 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0xbd4763bffb9fec9c9a8a157101fd0ebd7b54eeb64eac1c8a8b8f26018cfbfe4b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2025-10-19? | Event: nor-str-ffk-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bun-pau-hof-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-... | yes | 1 | bun-moe-bay-2025-10-25 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25? | 78,193,637 | 78,193,637 |
f4a77976f759b18e023c35e005602fa64c7adc0c | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0xcf2b8e1f4d8603c1519bc4c0315fb5c7ab111ff696d24703a18ca8085cddbbfd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-19? | Event: bun-pau-hof-2025-10-19 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-bri-2025-10-25 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? | 78,193,637 | 78,193,637 |
88f54b9e8f8cc8f26f1d6d12e703197354defa45 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0xf15357e1b04ad28845cd114aa0d553af5d7a5b81dd1f96e86833518ccd04bc43 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-lev-psg-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-v... | yes | 1 | fl1-asm-tou-2025-10-25 | Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,193,637 | 78,193,637 |
d5cb5a101d8ad1b5ed16cae3964d4ea6811edb84 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x0d6d94166622df9ef7f7f4af250d49ba55f10ac037759b049444fb4e9c585fa6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-ars-atm-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-20? | Event: arg-rie-iac-2025-... | yes | 1 | bun-stu-mai-2025-10-26 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-10-26? | 78,325,829 | 78,325,829 |
7bbea8fb30b62457e7b74c9302369023992178d5 | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x0fb910f988120dea820d25404e9826e5902c3dad8daf75e2327ab4a16f6c4d1a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-vil-mnc-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-20? | Event: arg-rie-iac-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-new-... | yes | 1 | bun-b04-fre-2025-10-26 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-26? | 78,325,829 | 78,325,829 |
8302c79ec101ab35bfe03441e379350a010c8adc | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x114eb34e06dbc91477ed8e8d2bfd53de4f9a99251929d9ddd3a429a4a74dcf6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-20? | Event: arg-rie-iac-2025-10-20 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-20... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-bur-2025-10-26 | Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-26? | 78,325,829 | 78,325,829 |
47d5638627ca44fdcd22722751d8178b9550c64e | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x4bdf0155cbd6d59d298ec0ce3b6d6f70c1a0e542f935e457f8c08075627dc925 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-new-ben-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-cry-2025-10-26 | Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? | 78,325,829 | 78,325,829 |
2330d97ea1919adc61442140fe5e43c369dfa26f | 0x17aee6f3e804f8d2d9977d3046a487c49b99ccf1 | 0x51c3656da9bc9f4a73a2f1a345ec285d2c2dd0fbf0f97fb13c74216e93f2bada | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? | Event: ucl-fcb-oly-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-10-21? | Event: mex-mon1-jua-2025-10-21 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? | Event: ucl-gal-bog-2025... | yes | 1 | por-ton-spo-2025-10-26 | Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-26? | 78,325,829 | 78,325,829 |
d00fc00de0726e7b91d936420bb806e143a4fe15 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xe5a28f65b1bce59346b567907974eb46549a997464168b3b27cc2bbcf4d4e2d5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Event: largest-company-end-of-june
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | largest-company-end-of-june | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 73,425,058 | 73,425,058 |
b56928fc9b667cd8f6424495ea1d2b9a60410cab | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x2ec0458f080556c8f455b970674235f48b952249b82391470e94dd0586bab306 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et
Predict the user's ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | 73,526,099 | 73,526,099 |
7f3ad35756ae6ecb75fa35307aa38fdb185e57dd | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x813917fd5678498d2c73106d5c625b8f13fea87d675699a5de65ab7c2accfa2c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | june-unemployment-rate | Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | 73,534,897 | 73,534,897 |
1a0e1cc799e73367dfb02e41ba3638d385b58aad | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x6c4c52c20bed8ee65785c00f0a43be7ff1b8dd8a5b7613d4c8d13bf116cbeb47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,589,877 | 73,589,877 |
91a3b4022b76e839b9a68e6223be5772a39f8710 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xd7ec8fa26648c70458364c7d9f0c0455c732aa68570f98633d89e7477626cea7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? | 73,768,867 | 73,768,867 |
f3f2ca3cc2e585b6316af6e9c5fc674efcc280de | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x10cd55acfbe1d5dab971dd7cacdd4373be8acf90f25a4b8827178bbc2a79c507 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? | 73,848,334 | 73,848,334 |
bef6b341264d14a91a67c1d036b2d792ce98de4c | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x0cb2df4b3439f41f70c72daa4af20e0dd3fcbc26dad5a2763885420c876c9d7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? | 73,848,338 | 73,848,338 |
fae9de5e79d3fccb39038227b04333fb0a6b584f | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x655e5ca101c466b6293aa15e06173b78b293221803d56e35551f708cd82eb352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | 73,877,877 | 73,877,877 |
2063b9b343b902f52f267247c4658a664478859f | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x053dfedf0007875af96d6a58f71422ae971f76424cfd061dfdc9799ff7d0f150 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on July 30? | 74,603,330 | 74,603,330 |
fa6126939d9de01371c8de140f387aaac805ca8a | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x26d61a8c39c111b80b75e5cebd598b23aa35ecd1e087b5b5db3923c00644f742 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-30-5pm-et1 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 30 at 5PM ET? | 74,623,869 | 74,623,869 |
df7dcf33c4756be78fb77f114d3f515d590d25f4 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x0ba8720bffd6d7990e291c5763fd8b79d1f65fc207587547e497983e90645d78 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-30-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 30 at 5PM ET? | 74,624,035 | 74,624,035 |
6e66ad75db7dc394ce1b76240f00ce4aacf47a1e | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x3ad5ad45d7b5e2039c93ab0155293b4d42dfaeacabd97efbcb562f519e18e842 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 4? | 74,808,012 | 74,808,012 |
6ea65bd1bfe8254006b27cc8cb5cba86b3587671 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x1eb0fc1b5cdcf72064b4e051f3245af2c6392dfd9eca7846a2e7d0020d92917d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6? | 74,886,317 | 74,886,317 |
71efcf9bf60bcd16bddfa4bf940feeea2f36eb73 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xbc07da0b4e9f9ac5bfb130b23aaa05e6c32a7b04c89324f85de53356aa31bc85 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110K on August 29? | 75,812,173 | 75,812,173 |
ab7b0b77ff479f5a4879bd204b09e2462806305c | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xa334f5ab7a25fdab3dcab797a0a59aa6e5ad45cd0d022e84ec60524006a6c3e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29? | 75,812,181 | 75,812,181 |
ec0737d29c2c04b1da8e5df4e4dba8fc8ae225bc | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x5ac78a7629f5d4b6181e15c6ca098697edfe0d9e0bd1d4c9206f79eee144f8d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-august-22-29 | Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29? | 75,812,185 | 75,812,185 |
2da5c97e067c71162cfe9d6d3502305bd72a2f2d | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xa04f206d78f1b01675d07383404c9cffa98fe7fc9d3690ba4579683b12869333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on August 29? | 75,812,224 | 75,812,224 |
aacddfd23d8b9b191794df37a9a18b30b93e5164 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x8779a5c6bb06808b1b450c07ac1ca7c980daa4968b04d8df295dfbd40e8ff26b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-august-29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 29? | 75,812,240 | 75,812,240 |
641ac4197e09128b1744b5279c0f5fb41777e2c7 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x8585cc7e9a27903eb57f59d212c487a12343e130054d37f0ef39a6a77a062abb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-august-29 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 29? | 75,877,265 | 75,877,265 |
4c9d7a16d7cbc2d2e435dd316423b2b62cde0c25 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x5fb3af0ad49773f85b9d9eaee0e169bda9fd90c13da2107ca01743a7bcf39663 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-august-29 | Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on August 29? | 75,877,266 | 75,877,266 |
6a228de6e9dc3f36931e0e448fa3a0899e622f6c | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x07245d0a2b02b85eb3d9a3a1824d01497e28b3ea2d0113ae6652d1c5edf1e9b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-august-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $340b on August 31? | 75,917,103 | 75,917,103 |
1174d1708db8b2d9bcfd31f33b5d47cb55cea39c | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x554db8589d4deee5a5a68486f5d0dfd956988be157f0279135b7d0deec59cc0b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-august-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31? | 75,917,106 | 75,917,106 |
b98735be1d24542625318a405ae956095d8d9c7b | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x3433124fd2c75b55bd861bf3e5063acfd2a344f07bc4ea28a90c6737ad45a7d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-august-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $390b on August 31? | 75,917,110 | 75,917,110 |
94b00a0652824c859875a995d348b6a6cbc915c4 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xb9fcddcc6bc52f5d5753b1053a9cecc49c257c016e47af4f17379d3e686baf9b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-august-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31? | 75,917,968 | 75,917,968 |
3fc140d5832bf9249b64915449cdd7177bb9550c | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xadf3731d0b8df27ad5db8b2b6814f2561634f354cbcf7af6b8b484b813331406 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-august-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31? | 75,917,970 | 75,917,970 |
f9343b6eaede1bd29ffc70635456e6c83593c2e5 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xb0d5bdf2b60c57efcc1c3e9d62dc672aa09b76a595356fbd927cbc0b244237dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | samoa-legislative-assembly-election-winner | Will FAST win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election? | 76,084,649 | 76,084,649 |
c3c562eaeff1cd960b27edbfe5dbe145f8bb4e3f | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x6600d3be705f4db2e165496e75623cf83b5f8c3937e84f316adfa6c3d5b81786 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-394 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025? | 76,334,294 | 76,334,294 |
6d71995e4226363b77bb72b58e8dd87bb3462295 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xa5c145324688b080f582c6175c3a5281bf0550fdf339dde9c74c733b575caf8a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | july-2025-temperature-increase-c-394 | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? | 76,334,295 | 76,334,295 |
ff0598cd7393afbc309f70fb5e4077d16d61febb | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x9aaa9c6c60544167b7de20ba9f184cb8043b39ec074a861e9bb28d4c9fff6472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-5-12 | Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? | 76,372,628 | 76,372,628 |
2c2443e73dfab6b2666e93aa3d6659fdf0d22f50 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,603,125 | 76,603,125 |
673039a6098210a903e2b5f8e012a95dd5535bfd | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x9f41a3e4a2ef548cf207c22a48dbaf73e28dda5ec014c145217f428aaf3769e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Event: largest-company-end-of-june | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | 76,603,128 | 76,603,128 |
e82c55506ffd73def7e5f007bd55677b5e488320 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on July 2 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-2-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will a club from Asi... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-september | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | 76,603,130 | 76,603,130 |
38de9492873d429892d71b250b703434d1635612 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xfdc213bd0fa5904dcfd363be360566c033228f21020a0359100e99c0fa372645 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Event: june-unemployment-rate | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet less ... | no | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on or before September 23 ET? | 76,847,767 | 76,847,767 |
1e1fcd6cc0971b06b96078a20d045a0aca011f4f | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xb0764afeddaf2dc507572c50a476596c60134817252b27cfbe3dd73d78af22b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: which-continent-wins-fifa-club-world-cup | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon twe... | no | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 24 ET? | 76,886,496 | 76,886,496 |
a18b12f9f18fc2d67c50bf15c44ff91d72ff47f1 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x8070698e5dbe25602b803ad60a93a7376919bd04cf1c65073c6be9ac18c80139 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July... | no | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? | 76,892,469 | 76,892,469 |
f76e90bb097d22ff1b9b8cd97634923cd954b2c2 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xdef0ca8d4240fb9ad56025f7d0f92f075149da1d6b979b9cffd7ac8ff302c5ae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 255–269 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-19-september-26 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025? | 76,928,602 | 76,928,602 |
3bb1f4e3e015dc24509be6497d8f3cbde1b8f821 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xf81b8a50ffbe8ef62d3fca367dea73a5adf8162d8122e64624f7866d79f072f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Event: will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be bet... | no | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on-918 | Will Israel strike Yemen on September 26 ET? | 76,972,766 | 76,972,766 |
9cf4e59dfdec986a53e06579dceb00cf340548de | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xe3b7cd7b4fe655ee5fe6310c2cacc9a03e5f46f255a493434bb99e645a3e5f58 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | Event: will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on July 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-september-26 | Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 26? | 76,972,794 | 76,972,794 |
aeabf6e5c129ee25c9887f5ae87f5e4320289c93 | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xc88a1b69ad4ddcd62cf6453acf32548768762c4158963a01f71b41fbc100f582 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on July 30? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 30 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-30-5pm-et1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-september-26 | Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on September 26? | 76,972,797 | 76,972,797 |
c08530e3a82f9dfc20385fbfd4922c5ad69ec3dc | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xe1c263e49c3b756332140d12142fe37911a19f76f308c850b3148f8ff387ea28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 30 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-30-5pm-et1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 30 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-30-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Con... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-september-26 | Will Trump’s approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on September 26? | 76,972,800 | 76,972,800 |
e7cf42cef544c0083aa29bb315eee498464258cf | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0xa30bfd04c2cdf89bcb388c59bf7db40eba01ad219aac306d06343330144819aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 30 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-30-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-september-16-september-23 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? | 76,972,956 | 76,972,956 |
188e70f1fc9560a70f61ea148bdd9249f4076c9b | 0x17b70c3724ca1be7721b07dd1a2ff8e1dc8e1ecc | 0x2af6b1af09ef8a0438439f539b2b249afa8de620cdefb0fd47628413736aaf47 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-august-6 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | no | 1 | israel-next-strike-on-yemen-on-918 | Will Israel strike Yemen onSeptember 27 ET? | 77,049,631 | 77,049,631 |
eb44ee54e5a34847ef711abae8ff5fa008fd056d | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0x34e7851258699d34389c998eb0ac053080c0d6fed119ceaa61c4b72c55318a67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?
Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | 66,185,833 | 66,185,833 |
5191dce3a026eefa7947ef549cf7747d161f3098 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0x8a8d14636fb261b71ccc50e58b7a3a18d068ff25190842491f4ddf93a1553b0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend?
Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office
Predict the user's choice ... | yes | 1 | nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | 66,185,833 | 66,185,833 |
75db6049467591033f380cc890ec51f2f5532aa4 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xa47e90f1232464539a75336de9fa41856285bc2dd5250ee509084ee90cf2d26e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Targe... | no | 1 | when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven | Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? | 66,185,837 | 66,185,837 |
b7bfb4108ea79fb526fecc8247990f7dccb4b84f | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0x1ab07117f9f698f28490f57754d6fe5309374230c95867a7eba572892a11d710 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | 66,275,921 | 66,275,921 |
606f9c7da01aa363acdcca039d77413cabb5ed19 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0x4de7c3750fc75dadc07d99af2437e6c40c0538458b1925063b9c70235b1a4a32 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | golden-globes-best-original-score | Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score? | 66,405,757 | 66,405,757 |
6a6daa451254cc156736e3f1e76c4df3a189924b | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xa09a74d8a172b8dbc90722aca024c89a954743b063a7ab75ccab589a32d23602 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Will Ipswich win on 2025-01-05? | 66,405,757 | 66,405,757 |
21b50cbdb6887e03ab69ba37e066deb8814dfc27 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xad74e01b17e95504e6f7925493783f57a75499e455613f26b9548422cdec5bc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | golden-globes-best-original-score | Will 'Conclave' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score? | 66,405,757 | 66,405,757 |
b61d27fa06527b9991edc2b3dcb7dc4b4a78e8a2 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xb9f3c202b0c2d5294ce5041909674e50ac44d02fba6ea86559af74dcf7b79e0c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Will Fulham win on 2025-01-05? | 66,405,757 | 66,405,757 |
e78fb3f7d8c992c48d0ead19ee34e3a2f589698d | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xf38cc15d9824916962fc3f6adcd04083a016f9e427f9efed59449915f73c4204 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | golden-globes-best-original-score | Will 'The Brutalist' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score? | 66,405,757 | 66,405,757 |
0fbd591bb23af857eeefe9f50a741690d98dd44a | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0x95aa184e6468861d7438bc0a80b43a3db1628ea86baa8dd7c6cdbf5089891912 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 0.546753 | december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? | 66,562,219 | 66,562,219 |
172c9a9aaef9b08e9c8b8c9290647c4fb4ae4337 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xd971abf6d25fb08d4386846f314b57f33e09f3cf8a1327de3c731f6d29b837cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | 66,562,219 | 66,562,219 |
4c0489ff2759c339dea615c076ca17e1e8497154 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xa04853f6baa8814ab3a94f49046e84de70a2714646f33b9fc37cdec3137560de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | croatia-presidential-election | Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? | 66,726,485 | 66,726,485 |
07a64745752291f8131499d90ecf1e76abfa658f | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xdfc6eb448d09b68ef4402d06267000a86dc0216b5238ad76d5402c500260c279 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | spacex-flight-test-7 | SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10? | 66,726,485 | 66,726,485 |
343c3bceaa35dffa97f711d33e142375737a7795 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0x4480460531feebcaacb3105e9186e19c522d8335bb79100aa4a9b8dfca751bd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | who-will-perform-the-star-spangled-banner-at-trump-inauguration | Will Christopher Macchio perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration? | 66,946,203 | 66,946,203 |
232529b2ee1806d4dd75274911df63780b9f9c38 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xc3d4155148681756bfe67bb41d8d0882a8a122e7d3762b3591bf6598c9bd198b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 0.999997 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | 66,946,203 | 66,946,203 |
37a092826dc2466dfc117b41a7dbaded1e6b15d5 | 0x17d021d533f38d4de810e2093b8c0cde4879f22b | 0xc5a29d7da91c765c5b8b45dc5f86147558ad0d16bb18e7ca14a74e3b5e3ebf9a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024? | Event: what-price-will-gold-close-at-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend? | Event: nosferatu-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | no | 1 | who-will-be-inaugurated-as-president | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | 66,971,672 | 66,971,672 |
be05629bfc6e087d318fd2f1a3c820cf24f74dd0 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0xcb0716ad0af88ec794e725a6b4714b208bc4079d1d7b958079b891f7b4448774 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022?
Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | 37,028,101 | 37,028,101 |
39bbd4e3e184b8ac551999974c6c829986ba37c1 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0xb26988395cf64bd8f3c2a84467ad01df73270e2c07102e1cb18589315268c8b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater?
Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election
Predict ... | yes | 1 | wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | 43,282,399 | 43,282,399 |
2c66562dadf445de17be3a00c48b516580863062 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0xe686e2bb68db686bcec9d6fc3bb3e33d36a55ef5ef94fabd272b7e5df2ee46fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | democrat | 1 | 2022-us-gubernatorial-elections-will-a-democrat-or-republican-win-this-state | Governor: Will a Democrat (Hobbs) or Republican (Lake) win in Arizona? | 44,868,392 | 44,868,392 |
5388417935f30c7254aa67eeaf3e3ea0166d72b8 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x729832336b1344aab2531ba0bfb192a674fce114004eb020d5bc3cd9bfcb40d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | iowa-caucus-2nd-place | Will Ramaswamy place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | 52,399,840 | 52,399,840 |
db57fa5b19c22fabfc3672b966c62287aae15f87 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x2711361d6b8d04771e604b03baf6ef370b11d045a38ae889e145222a66e25801 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $10k and $15k? | 52,652,670 | 52,652,670 |
de540b8d08846f591ceb65915fd382ff9c85e6e3 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x5bf02e4c98dff597eaeeb71b710b57359140129031570a6bce5e8a4ef9299ada | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | how-much-did-mrbeasts-twitter-post-with-124m-views-make | Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make over $15k? | 52,652,670 | 52,652,670 |
0197b16cbb0f7460a9eaf84dbdb8a4b8b4ea4a48 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x63c08c7876974d743c3c484acb633759afaa93fe203895187f433e80167ea575 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-winner-2024 | Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl LVIII? | 52,652,670 | 52,652,670 |
02d5c3ac9c957a0fd15d84aec1219f589412d76d | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x830fe8eb8ab09693af821fba6d1d2c5369a696715c029b978e06df41cc614390 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 0.999999 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-new-hampshire-primary | Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% | 52,710,096 | 52,710,096 |
b7e9ced93c7f78a9567cfea1cb8df6543367a95c | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x420fcc123beef1d4cba887bd68a0c430b910683915daea32ecec0f8bd65fe2f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Jussi Halla-aho win? | 52,874,178 | 52,874,178 |
37e4f6f0476b4a1b410e0e8076f19f5dd6a52bd7 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0xbe21571d3373cee1500fe2c85ad06757bb5c3a8bb351bffb6f7daf16b91e9adc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | jim-cramer-of-bitcoin-tweets-from-jan-26-feb-1 | Will Jim Cramer tweet bitcoin 0 times Jan 26-Feb 1? | 53,030,666 | 53,030,666 |
dda3489306d4912eaeb8b30cdef3d72785b8a81d | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0xbf2bc9a51b38d666b2a511809efa700df79b03fcc3760152acb8fb56a5299589 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | grammys-2024-record-of-the-year | GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus win Record of the Year? | 53,146,354 | 53,146,354 |
e2ebe04d5a69094e6be669ce960bbc9356a53ae2 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0xe91b26e02e0a35d164b243a1b1a70d5886441084e9da1f3f664f052730030cbb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | finland-presidential-election-who-will-win | Finnish Presidential Election: Will Alexander Stubb win? | 53,409,473 | 53,409,473 |
caf35aac63dd4a81652f2654aeaf19f650002b35 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0xf48df84e093bf9c909ac308ace75eb3aa1034724a2c3f1b2e54b5a377ddf40e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-ushers-first-song-in-halftime-show | Super Bowl LVIII: Will Usher's first song of the Super Bowl LVIII Halftime Show be "My Way"? | 53,422,767 | 53,422,767 |
b392f12b00e8c2ee0d30e43c62abea10f5c53061 | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x4774bdc661b14290b537019240c9d1c3b859126fe4e159636b8f461e0dcf78e0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | trump-margin-of-victory-in-south-carolina-primary | Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 40-50% of the vote? | 53,941,318 | 53,941,318 |
6706a13c6cbd3c988c38b5e6ad6c1bf44cb743ec | 0x17d5e2f2dcb09f4141ebf966310d125a03d895a6 | 0x2ed994d2b8196386508261d8a1ae668e5bf464c6ddfc3b957803304b484e30ce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Twitter report any outages by December 15, 2022? | Event: will-twitter-report-any-outages-by-december-15-2022 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Wisconsin Supreme Court: Will the margin of victory be 5.0% or greater? | Event: wisconsin-supreme-court-election | Choice: yes | Conf... | no | 1 | california-senate-primary-margin-of-victory | Will Garvey win the California Senate Primary by between 2-4% of the vote? | 54,951,825 | 54,951,825 |
d8c63faec5e93a14bdd8e4fcab6b6ad8d152514e | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x23e0c90c8787b03f1a85094aedd25b4b737740aeb791d5788992fb932bfb543d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22?
Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | 78,074,324 | 78,074,324 |
2b56c39b5f64cd8aaf27ba2e013e759f994aa901 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x6d427c2a1ae4a6edac446928e21e8e82ea32874c95d690e46fee08cddb93f7d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stri... | yes | 1 | mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | 78,276,703 | 78,276,703 |
cc844231ce889388a4896ac84fcf5466af0e4d46 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x81ec52ea8e2310097b9e671ff087a2809193281736b55e26edd6a8247149c8d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025... | yes | 1 | aus-mac-ade-2025-10-27 | Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | 78,276,704 | 78,276,704 |
117e9485f1168367b9234e95e88456ed713d8621 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x95989dc4958c7462641a4b814a6ce2edefcce7fe691b3c16fe27687f30dc30d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | no | 1 | aus-mac-ade-2025-10-27 | Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-10-27? | 78,276,704 | 78,276,704 |
533938d9f74d728821148ce9977c73e6b6976070 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x10b4bc6ecee34b8f0842e4937e958f3fda8bff7a99e5977e4c1d706517ff7038 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | no | 1 | dfb-stp-hof-2025-10-28 | Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2025-10-28? | 78,307,927 | 78,307,927 |
954ceb70ef2d0b34558f872ae60d964875c4b76e | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x3eca8307db8ac2270cf02be82e5c54fc84a1dad4a45422604ba456ad3cf63c51 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 1 | kor-dae1-seo-2025-11-01 | Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,452,364 | 78,452,364 |
b24c20e060faa37134d1033a1c8857b5125d03c2 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x611f97718589475405ad1bd8a1dd05ae3f84865162b603313405ee0587555552 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 1 | aus-bri-mct-2025-10-31 | Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw? | 78,452,364 | 78,452,364 |
6c2326cad91be0af05297d65063da4cad4941bb7 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0xfc191cfbf6113bd2871d58a23d8a2a792d0b60204116444925e6873862aeb0a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 0.718984 | aus-bri-mct-2025-10-31 | Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-10-31? | 78,452,364 | 79,823,470 |
9120253564f9b2e588677d5fe4b77c1e07f5a7bd | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x0eb64f96119793960339f7b86d0b1500432206173f34e74f0d63b252e5ff188f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | no | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? | 78,474,775 | 78,474,775 |
4be407406c7cd7fd51383c41d20a743d592a6349 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x77bb67b2b0c24f1c5e4f5cd2d9975fbd9c2a7cd01f12b832072547b62d1cbf44 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | no | 1 | elc-wba-swe-2025-11-01 | Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,474,775 | 78,474,775 |
fd75e06379581a22bceebccebeecac841b6b23a4 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x7962dd0b79fb3585682185c0b2254fad2c5215fc4358ecac188004b1f5f208ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-lee-2025-11-01 | Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? | 78,474,775 | 78,474,775 |
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