sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0447fe7e410288d0b3906dd9b4617774446e89c9 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x988bdc12e302f8dac5e2f7d19a7fd7cfa3fbc3acac36b71a47fc6eb3f7d1a89a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | no | 0 | bun-hei-ein-2025-11-01 | Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-01? | 78,474,775 | 79,823,468 |
b71af798ca4c25ca9f4d3194d32cc6d622d44470 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x03c238f40b749733c6eb18590ea240dbdb6fe738ec3bf2cb6ebb69143f208bb9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 0.143469 | bun-hei-ein-2025-11-01 | Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? | 78,474,775 | 79,823,474 |
718f3c8cf884b0cce95c69984cea9ee48b922662 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x663fd9ca1a75cd48235d87920a56211e94d51af322fc3ad4eacad1f2c9db15d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | no | 1 | mls-por-sdg-2025-11-01 | Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-01? | 78,510,923 | 78,510,923 |
abfd7c2297128ba4b8dd3d467ba2a9d8bc71174d | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x8621c8949aa5ee329b63d27b64da5b0e50e5b73ce45d7f93382be54862047333 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | no | 1 | aus-per-ccm-2025-11-07 | Will Perth Glory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? | 78,735,758 | 78,735,758 |
0271bd605e7e44ce808fa64f18a41bf6f67c0dc5 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0xcd13d45aa7b3e790668418ae4e0c7b96381ea36385a19cb4b636fb6d87f6422f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | maple leafs | 0 | nhl-tor-fla-2025-12-02 | Maple Leafs vs. Panthers | 79,816,345 | 79,816,345 |
43df9ff35f5d161a226f36d06c79305c344656a1 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x1124de88aa08e2e1c30e5761344335796392b9c60cd8f5490ed7ce58c90536ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | bruins | 0 | nhl-bos-det-2025-12-02 | Bruins vs. Red Wings | 79,816,345 | 79,822,083 |
57aa870cc29d04cbceeb0fe247001cb88b0060e5 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x31be716f872ef738cf91a93c2fc732a714f489f334030df5d392b73183aa8524 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | canadiens | 0 | nhl-ott-mon-2025-12-02 | Senators vs. Canadiens | 79,816,345 | 79,822,083 |
4b4c73eacfe0739cb65672d9eea66cfc58465815 | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x235c498c8b5f7dd11ec89e116b40aa6d6db89601fed80fa9519bd972c6eec0b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-bre-2025-11-01 | Will Brentford win on 2025-11-01? | 79,822,083 | 79,822,083 |
1719df07665c7bf71fffb945bdf5bafcefb8720a | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x3ca9e8980d7d5138b54e417706b75c2de43915b861520add178026e5ed2fa617 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 1 | bra-bra-vas-2025-10-26 | Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-26? | 79,822,083 | 79,822,083 |
286164270b2e3880dab4085692e0e339f040c7bb | 0x17e0e9f06b4fdbee923598577af4d7fe69cc80ae | 0x0a9f7c6c9b4255b5875a44f0d8d32a6e17297f9c6c1832d751120795a67f3b2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-22? | Event: bra-bah-int-2025-10-22 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? | Event: mls-min-sea-2025-10-27 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-10-27? | Eve... | yes | 1 | epl-not-mun-2025-11-01 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? | 79,822,088 | 79,822,088 |
d896a457a26181d6b2bc746cfcbf59e1367cc02c | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xfe5d444330095bc8891c56e4dc72ce49c67e73c32f1cc5a9cf530407b2efd9c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?
Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 0.000037 | monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | 79,203,418 | 79,203,418 |
b6a176ca7529f91e65c921214c7714b66dfae201 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x562a2600522ffeee8640d11c9eeddf7a81e3f9c75d25becad98d2a28eb4fa62a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
Target market:
Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?
Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profil... | no | 0 | will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-by-december-31 | Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | 79,203,428 | 79,743,325 |
854a8a870bc32f90fcca2b6ba06843007aefd771 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x14b7c150b38751373082088698a48b7cea6a8dfc17a5a6fc5df4a77de3c7e9a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.652872 | how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 18 2025? | 79,203,440 | 79,203,440 |
4175440eaa817f9481295f321517fb4593470ba2 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xe86442b3a3269c67960d2cbb5f83246567c8ff2992c0562a98058140854223a1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0.065923 | will-trump-talk-to-nicols-maduro-by-december-31 | Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? | 79,211,455 | 79,323,604 |
06e3fa180b551d9ffc9cb8c5722ac7997c0d1919 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x6dfe6b208b9c5cef6aab980e3106f400c54530c42fc9ab28cb7a8cd07a9a43e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0 | will-half-life-3-be-announced-before-2026 | Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026? | 79,271,504 | 79,271,504 |
2770da78cc9112dd3e4e12b0ab75e7dcff953277 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x5a4da454c850edf2fb7ce33be4ad6749a8ca9c19c1153a1223d2b91d344c0713 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0.000002 | will-trump-release-a-new-russia-x-ukraine-peace-plan-by | Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30? | 79,311,441 | 79,495,501 |
56a7b946e3f7acf93cfb9b00550964036653bf8c | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xe4a43487dda631271626fd00e0d93f0b920bdca0e4a03907f7a3d669d434af08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.000006 | will-polymarket-mindshare-hit-70 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%? | 79,314,676 | 79,701,451 |
c0238fb3a88f95027a27bdbcaf44994a9ddfaa27 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x3f0217c7af427e93ea3594734216d32cecab26bd14bc965bc6537d456815fb98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.000025 | will-polymarket-mindshare-hit-70 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%? | 79,317,166 | 79,748,512 |
680963d7e451095ca44313ec5f744a60d3437e5e | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x56e2df24054981fb2c88ce4c9aa885dc451487444ee27f43d821268b68690068 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0 | gemini-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-november-30 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | 79,318,954 | 79,318,954 |
dc548817ea3b8553278eee604d34bbc050119bd8 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.000003 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | 79,320,064 | 79,496,293 |
d7746211ae3fa34821498196a0125d3b463ad942 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xa886b40d69b4733df3086a6b3f106ab783e1ac7fa91fea42ad807a00ed0f6846 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.280203 | monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | 79,320,822 | 79,366,747 |
63641ac9d47c3c9722680cde0d2434ae71f23e5d | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x4ea6acab2dcda8bb2fdf50d332ea58c4178660dd77aeb3eda8746f475fbdece0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0 | monad-public-sale-total-commitments | Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? | 79,329,075 | 79,329,075 |
f567916fc0759065a39e5117adc04865f9bef9ee | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.449859 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | 79,329,531 | 79,451,535 |
d90d2b3f0a27f70b1531adf304a7333d00cacb98 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xf79cf17ad3ca6702858521952952bcdfb5b4aeb8c809ecfd37237c14d4182bce | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.000034 | monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M? | 79,329,878 | 79,329,878 |
d6350599feded971132056d5c81b00abbd6251eb | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xd927ecf4e9411796dedee1c6905d4ed41cf887ffc4274bca9582f8effa21062b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.000003 | ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | 79,331,272 | 79,356,414 |
4594d0ab3b2178beb62973808889cded10e31c0a | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x850c1624dc9d8ca9850195df05293ff85273e6b92e89a9551cd0a57c2f72aceb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.000004 | time-2025-person-of-the-year | Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | 79,355,271 | 79,486,246 |
083da8e0d0964d0a335e857220cac055fffbc9ce | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xd51547cb1230a175172a2cc26db38aa0775589b70461635f13376a015ce56e62 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0.000074 | hpq-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-25-2025-0pt92 | Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? | 79,355,287 | 79,355,287 |
19f01d4cd3a96302198bfba69c74c39a64e41b4f | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xa94f9df0ae6bf98ca120ace7a490232f33df5ad51d55de61801b6c2f0a1d1b7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0.000031 | will-zohran-mamdani-win-by-over-9 | Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? | 79,361,695 | 79,362,883 |
51d2debd3c7f524295c451f2fc2ecf70105e58b4 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xb9b05c3a14c6a7c1c6c00a8c214ed154d4232a885f98ebfd01889204ed252931 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0 | 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | 79,362,559 | 79,362,559 |
d75ef5e6339f1cbbd83d8e89522ebedaca5fcbae | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0.000003 | us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | 79,362,779 | 79,493,670 |
cd36dc4cdd12f23ccac9110c508eec6f787b86b2 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xbc9a89cbb1c02ac468c1f7f8fd2cf56c4713faf8d3c97577452c58f4b69c29b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-18-november-25 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | 79,366,145 | 79,367,960 |
4fe4e0490346174ce0f2958fca8e8e72e60e5311 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x2f676f8d85d60dd20ce0e0ba14608825b970a0491b419d7dedfa81bcf646af2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0 | ukraine-agrees-to-us-approved-peace-plan-by-thursday | Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? | 79,366,227 | 79,366,227 |
ac8494ac06caeaf5b1fc0bff7132719ee3f4f88f | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xff21f6951a1a4fd0e9d12d1bc641e49943e81a0f54487d20e8967a84ee39ebd2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0.000205 | elon-musk-of-tweets-november-18-november-25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | 79,367,021 | 79,367,021 |
074ecbead4551ca3653b579f9037da7300277565 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x37b0ad99ab9e7e6b535671554140e7c4b029b24d5b7b18b6dda80e175eccd962 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0 | will-trump-say-polymarket-by-december-31 | Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31? | 79,367,054 | 79,367,054 |
aedb53ce471b166fd02f939c7ad0f52e985a6c2d | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xfad6bb4616fcbe1e05677f7aef912e6c3b4b4259ab10fe7efcf9bb64135264f9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 0.000149 | trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-877 | Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30? | 79,370,455 | 79,370,455 |
5cfb70acc298489997cfeb4a710d94d1c87dbb70 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x1df6862b69a47872e75864cac21b9ae9ea0cb552884d38aea9170c5fe5321bc6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.023641 | will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | 79,370,470 | 79,370,470 |
34d84dc890ab3ab9e52fd6558a34954dacd152fe | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x9ea5173f151792a2056f7c799a4a7a33b0fca77c2048cfc9adbb2e87ba81631d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.147493 | will-stable-launch-a-token-in-2025 | Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | 79,371,032 | 79,472,366 |
121e9e37418b742a0016635c170b295f1c36c095 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x48c715b695536243a128b653e59f8214262a454811a570c4b019226291c0fa69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.781084 | will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | 79,371,268 | 79,371,268 |
3691f8a066b2f63599a6cfd1cbd73bd7b805cfb1 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x9778aa7639001067d7ddfc3212a678c764352b3ade5a6130100468ecaa46abef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0.000071 | will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-in-2025 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | 79,371,484 | 79,371,484 |
1a52f1bc467c23b896de0dbb753ec5a163d8e40f | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x59a8e78aaa3ddce1973c2fa07fd8f534ba7c7b8717e55968b406cc7503ab998b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | yes | 1 | trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-877 | Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24? | 79,445,851 | 79,445,851 |
cbe7fb2f144981bfa215d5fb3820f8bbb61efe27 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x8f1873a4264387599296a78cfab81fd54b159d2b5c7357ec96e0576d99c4b1fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.704862734835674e-05
2. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-b... | no | 0 | meta-above-in-november-2025 | Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of November? | 79,447,511 | 79,447,511 |
dc1448b9970758dfb5e1c2182a831c2e0dc4438e | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x9e2633dba6da9ecb00b0ad30568a9d19c49434c4d22e5ad0191820a95c1f7260 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | Event: will-elon-musk-change-his-x-profile-picture-by-december-31 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 18 2025? | Event: how-long-will-... | no | 0 | what-price-will-nvda-hit-in-november-2025 | Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in November? | 79,448,319 | 79,448,319 |
175e1b3a7115afba5167e622d8d2d3eec5e3975b | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xac098bbc998b65b2357dbe94982f6fa8292da9a24648ab3935aa604d088fb7a8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 18 2025? | Event: how-long-will-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-al-saud-shake-hands-on-tuesday | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.6528716883835097
2. Question: Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? | ... | yes | 0.10117 | of-views-of-mrbeasts-worlds-fastest-man-vs-robot-video-on-week-1 | Will MrBeast's robot race video get between 55 and 60 million views on week 1? | 79,450,790 | 79,451,402 |
f45eddce76d6223a869d5cf5bbe00f69ac93c7f5 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x055d0472344791ec0b297e34203ca2cd03e17572817e98d656f9f4297f6f41b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? | Event: will-trump-talk-to-nicols-maduro-by-december-31 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.06592276524448086
2. Question: Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026? | Event: will-half-life-3-be-announced-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
... | no | 0 | what-will-aapl-hit-before-2026 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit $265 before 2026?? | 79,451,272 | 79,451,272 |
4e349247b079c94a1cef317eb3214ae97566453d | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x20a31eacfa76cfc6a43d9a4c974bff8e6f9903ad7b881bdb54c0341d666ab006 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026? | Event: will-half-life-3-be-announced-before-2026 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30? | Event: will-trump-release-a-new-russia-x-ukraine-peace-plan-by | Choice: yes | Confi... | no | 0.073642 | m-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-12-03-2025-neg0pt15 | Will Macy's (M) beat quarterly earnings? | 79,472,400 | 79,655,347 |
f1247e580408b8dd5faab7ebd174543dd20cd8ab | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xaf26bfb76e1f2925408f22f15749f815c78e873b773e516dfdef335d54188758 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 30? | Event: will-trump-release-a-new-russia-x-ukraine-peace-plan-by | Choice: yes | Confidence: 2.1140883851907666e-06
2. Question: Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%? | Event: will-polymarket-mindshare-hit-70 | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0.000027 | snow-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-12-03-2025-0pt31 | Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings? | 79,472,404 | 79,472,404 |
88e324a214ff2776ca1b496b3d2ecc56df510e0d | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x16319c2cb245207804b4481ffe84a3837676b3da0289f411f6811da00a1bc600 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%? | Event: will-polymarket-mindshare-hit-70 | Choice: no | Confidence: 5.663989083067125e-06
2. Question: Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%? | Event: will-polymarket-mindshare-hit-70 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.5355402008549988e-05
3. Question: Will Google Ge... | no | 0.000007 | unfi-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-12-02-2025-0pt4 | Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? | 79,472,437 | 79,740,338 |
04050ec909b6a557d3c1ef63f86dd7bbe9f1bb70 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x49adb758053de01a31fc1fe925cba7d509babd99a1e962b627f918f2b98bbc16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%? | Event: will-polymarket-mindshare-hit-70 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.5355402008549988e-05
2. Question: Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Event: gemini-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-november-30 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 0 | will-ventuals-launch-a-token-by | Will Ventuals launch a token by March 31 2026? | 79,478,020 | 79,478,020 |
fad8bd04c493b480cc49bc4fae88a4a1738590bb | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x236e6db60e9b11220b9918fa0d8515a6304229da735816d0f1832e71fc9d40a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Event: gemini-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-november-30 | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Con... | no | 0.000577 | 1-paid-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-november-28 | Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 28? | 79,479,883 | 79,479,883 |
6fcb9d0f0e9d5b0f7b73eccdc18b156ab2452d41 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x5066929058d9e416ec61d945ec9603c0d3eaf98df01ea0907658d7399225cf94 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Event: highest-grossing-movie-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.7631061483680097e-06
2. Question: Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Event: monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.280... | yes | 1 | rbrk-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-12-04-2025-neg0pt17 | Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings? | 79,479,912 | 79,479,912 |
6eaeb3af75d2b6e7aca79757ffddb6546b1fa25a | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x6f8e9c624239a3dc853a792c624228aefbd47a6c80f6b32507fbe9dbda8b5b88 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Event: monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.2802027103414794
2. Question: Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Questio... | no | 0 | will-ventuals-launch-a-token-by | Will Ventuals launch a token by June 30 2026? | 79,479,914 | 79,479,914 |
338390136b047ce0de17eaec91bfa0be46adce41 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xa5922b452220eccc497a9cf1e7778b19b8b89a0aa694302beee2c85acf366fbc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4498585399930575
3. Question: ... | no | 0.000003 | ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-march-31 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | 79,484,651 | 79,493,589 |
c0111461a5bc0832ebafee083a6b8135b3e509e7 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xf8ad779f49fc9051a44de57a22b2ffe8608b0a2a7de46f728cbd6bce81a5bc54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Event: us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.4498585399930575
2. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: no | Confi... | yes | 0.000011 | will-trump-meet-with-putin-again-by | Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? | 79,485,974 | 79,490,665 |
2eb9eb8f61664bea8f1e621598bc1161a4a12d13 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x6e267e6e6a3121fa4a9528c9d428ad6043e504a899dd33320f7cb487a5344d1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M? | Event: monad-public-sale-total-commitments-339 | Choice: no | Confidence: 3.372172620192171e-05
2. Question: Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Event: ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025 | Choice: no | ... | no | 0.000019 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-november | Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in November? | 79,486,970 | 79,486,970 |
68990f95326eef646449380595dd5b0e1906f261 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xb31b91d45d51290686752c7f2f5388c2bd7a08920ce6b97567e72279da5c78e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Event: ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-in-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 2.920290063339011e-06
2. Question: Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Event: time-2025-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.000004 | ai-bubble-burst-by | AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | 79,487,415 | 79,491,903 |
ce02b41da9e5fe1074de2b502d36fa21ac851247 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0x6e90b9f10d7349fd6e50692c92ed9d0c9f27e633341f60981695c432ea61b22f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Event: time-2025-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 4.476902890763782e-06
2. Question: Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: hpq-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-25-2025-0pt92 | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | no | 0 | cpb-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-12-09-2025-0pt73 | Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? | 79,489,245 | 79,489,245 |
62cee99d17f8f2cd727965cb5cf4f0e4bff47257 | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xcb0f95181d632f21e776b8f958c27ed1bd7119a22b54762258617f89913539a4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings? | Event: hpq-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-11-25-2025-0pt92 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 7.393296817386932e-05
2. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? | Event: will-zohran-mamdani-win-by-over-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.063906121916424e-05
3. Qu... | up | 0.052602 | trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-317 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | 79,490,946 | 79,490,946 |
efbc1ca05217a1946d85b657f13c1a376731a29f | 0x17e61b1f9556c0f885a4b022b9a1e9f654c06fcb | 0xed42624cfd6a33586c1feaafe1bc9f81cc2e27aaf9d6bbf5180f9e02ec07b773 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? | Event: will-zohran-mamdani-win-by-over-9 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 3.063906121916424e-05
2. Question: Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Event: 1-searched-person-on-google-this-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question:... | no | 0 | will-trump-talk-to-putin-by-november-30 | Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? | 79,491,608 | 79,497,383 |
6322459baf3336f6ea7180c9c0e6210673852c16 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xb867078adeeed8c7dc460e9a4900cedc5713a3fe6f52b95c2ce680d1ac9bd804 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship?
Event: pga-championship-winner-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | pga-championship-winner-2024 | Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | 57,174,456 | 57,174,456 |
f0fa2aa6204e3149768d20e3dad52d728ac800b1 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xc80b3b116eb80acb5b89b767d0ac0c9f37bffa8dd5cceb8bd91b896ee3db69a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup?
Event: fa-cup-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {... | yes | 1 | fa-cup-winner | Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | 57,385,133 | 57,385,133 |
489f9a88f417907ff8d06e3f730dc83093c1c840 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x8d75cdd4345f3b8233d5ee2e281d15b008f774bf0ef06b2e6bf431ed4dea951f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup?
... | yes | 1 | fa-cup-winner | Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | 57,385,140 | 57,385,140 |
01e0420cb03c4446bd5312d0a2d82b178f5e47f4 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x4cae5deb3d8ae9366f83f8802ae5df18e3ff5f1ac8320ceccc139a456842d477 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | french-open-mens-singles | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | 58,038,246 | 58,038,246 |
29f019577bde1a119eb829569a5cc87f7cd550c1 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x5e3f57f5d4995f35108380a0a05c3bb9ef1bc1510a2436ddf7c527d5d1b598f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | us-open-winner | Will Ludvig Aberg win the U.S. Open? | 58,300,110 | 58,300,110 |
17d2b5e2f40714c12976ac72c4e31cf8f66963db | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x0c9da719b70fd2cfb5877d17d267d36bb17cc012053a86d17b9e846488eec21e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | how-many-games-reach-ot-nba-finals | Will one game in the 2024 NBA Finals series reach overtime? | 58,354,800 | 58,354,800 |
cebd56acbbc5ba9c2ec31bb924eefb30261012be | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x054332f7e556bf009aca9f093a1f7ad7425cf7a5cc4b01fe3e04e20f1b62b3dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2023-24 | Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | 58,354,807 | 58,354,807 |
1040c86a30de43a317e92efa143acf6dd025afb5 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x0a41886a3be0238e8fcaac2bf6b508da3a7c484bb534819078141b6305b598e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | no | 0.098346 | euro-2024-group-b-winner | Will Spain win Group B? | 58,427,575 | 58,427,575 |
7fb3620f175c7715f1cd8302a5f14705a83bbfde | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x26534e91178e5c14d3fb81fda7f843c65188ddf2dfb4d34fa2d83bc3e6d72531 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-b-winner | Will Croatia win Group B? | 58,427,575 | 58,427,575 |
30e47a01bda842c3973c605ecc6c5a89165ff79d | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x3f2d19d18f03c1b8315da55a0d413bb0c2c6654b1234848e5ebb9f17fb119483 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | no | 1 | euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Will Albania win? | 58,427,575 | 58,427,575 |
a38f974c5dbf161a1c5db0401e305f49cb72eea9 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x09c1862a9286d6767741ac56845a88329224beed4b5cb4fa4e8204f9d961d2e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Will Czechia win? | 58,499,312 | 58,499,312 |
4ca50753af08c515f4c1c082013a67fc1bdec5d0 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x7f9b2accc2550776b5bfecca3b98454825e1c9a948464fa2245639e89ea904b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Will the match be a draw? | 58,499,312 | 58,499,312 |
c952dd02605891e99992115f0cdc9b887f744610 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x9b3857698148078f93fcb6fca9fed16f066bca5dcbca77d3767919e02c855b2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-f-winner | Will Czechia win Group F? | 58,499,312 | 58,499,312 |
77cff2b4c43cca612d40f44287db57770be5ccb1 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x6060eee47f094ca68941003911c5c442a210d2a86c89b0b96e29beb0463d05ef | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 0.999998 | nhl-champion-2024 | Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | 58,580,060 | 58,580,060 |
cddb07e581027ae06b1831f01ec6c72f454b6b0b | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x3af61e7e56c6385314d3ea3d32e3b0748be22af7d87f496bc069531b4024a397 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-a-winner | Will Switzerland win Group A? | 58,699,915 | 58,699,915 |
99b411a14adfd0fad2c409e072fc4f818c75d047 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xe7a9e7b004e86c399125cc929322b04129e6ab7d7b2a6796114bfa2694dd256d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | no | 1 | euro-2024-group-d-winner | Will Austria win Group D? | 58,699,915 | 58,699,915 |
fc0d7320504c50d597d91561b41a13e51c3376ce | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xeb5c0b240cc210c482ca20b1b9cf4d989a0c41a7f4c195348ecde4688c107f6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-group-e-winner | Will Slovakia win Group E? | 58,699,915 | 58,699,915 |
a0398e46f6f9c6f5238a6025a78d37616b3b9518 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x15ea42625b550355f307ceeea8aa53b07e8f4b795c7edb131775dff44eae13a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-switzerland-vs-italy | Will Italy win? | 58,763,575 | 58,763,575 |
2b1ff191f7ca2b20fadd9cfaf0fa9f819372c750 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xb6595909eed53c0e0ea58cd5e1aea5414dbd29d9b49320baea641fcb336a19c5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 0.877606 | euro-2024-germany-vs-denmark | Will Denmark Win? | 58,777,239 | 58,777,239 |
068301f1dbdcc56ce583c5231b5abd880422cd6d | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xce2c2b0aea1198337b37d0cd2816665413d56ee592d3fc3cd10160fab0b9f07f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-germany-vs-denmark | Will the match be a draw? | 58,777,239 | 58,777,239 |
6a275233fd0991f2550626b8aaa3636e22badf03 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x4056149eba85b5141fe5476e3e94496e3e58a243c9540a2d2e2908f95effe8b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | no | 1 | wimbledon-womens-champion | Will Coco Gauff win Wimbledon Women's? | 59,097,926 | 59,097,926 |
9ea601acce6070efc3ff3818ececfd35d4703c78 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xc1763e94a3dcc967b6bb9ce60c907a30ed2d57088554612579bf8a42aa1ae009 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | euro-2024-netherlands-vs-england | Will Netherlands win? | 59,215,418 | 59,215,418 |
77687196770e20decfe225c65fd4f6ae8c18c2b0 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x7d618dc4b715fd3189b3c65587dcea73fc3b1c9267b1069ebe91a380073105d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | when-will-biden-drop-out | Will Biden drop out on July 20? | 59,638,398 | 59,638,398 |
7a05411f77a9cc934ec5ae1b11c68f6a69e92a56 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x998c5449dec2c85221a766ca25d27244d7ebe1850997060846dec34971b6faa5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | no | 1 | tennis-winner-m | Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis? | 60,194,759 | 60,194,759 |
cdbe942315d0161fda48e9c89b28fd2a6ca6d5b3 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x4e3b47688fa0951355d077913909b76e3a17714860ed39068dceab7b21d00740 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | when-will-kamala-announce-vp-pick | Will Kamala announce VP pick Sunday? | 60,223,399 | 60,223,399 |
01f22935e224880f066ba857da546eff73d93af4 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x57f90c89879a5b5e69fad9c2a261fa6f44f3653001aa3a02446aed92aaff21bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | democratic-vp-nominee | Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? | 60,286,614 | 60,286,614 |
90b32105c217782737e632eea20745d7c3a02476 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x9d231a70f0194c485d2d50dc2b31d27c74b30e17ae9712f18c9ae6bdc7212e1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview | Will Trump say "Tesla" during Elon interview? | 60,531,873 | 60,531,873 |
1cc770b43c5d8fd437a84989ec24b7064c92f450 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xd49c3caa3dedf75e00dee9459227ac69823a62379dbadb31e77a9937a861b1ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 1-10 times this week? | 60,531,873 | 60,531,873 |
828c20db9938cb6a1cc69f222d49a4ad2042b766 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x20a9d8d3f176f7271226e7ed8f9e1e583257b5db0f1165caa77532ab313ab6fe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 36-40 times this week? | 60,686,729 | 60,686,729 |
c9a26eef77856d9a2b1d010ec292710ef20aece6 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x36130bfa137d1073be75b85c12f709fe9b041b5bed7939a30efd3dc7ebc336e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 1 | what-will-kamala-harris-say-during-friday-speech | Will Kamala Harris say "Context" during Friday speech? | 60,686,729 | 60,686,729 |
75feae691cdd98cc13ff228289290371f9f67de0 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x9e4bec543ffb0739a08f222e32d1a0a07468fe57173e78cb2872cbe7df22e900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2024 PGA Championship? | Event: pga-championship-winner-2024 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-c... | yes | 0.648129 | how-many-times-will-trump-tweet-this-week | Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? | 60,686,730 | 60,686,730 |
47d487d277d4a16247928feedc8dc55db9923388 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xc961c6deb0f713adb3d668849aa3c668bee9c1bb9415d65853836f44ed84aa57 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-ope... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-saturday-rally | Will Trump say "Fire" or "Fired" at his rally? | 60,723,369 | 60,723,369 |
c94a0c8875d605a02ffe2905dac4bbc6fa0e3cb9 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x9d91b92785f0ddb1bf6033ff2ac6de97a70ee44abe19782e1e5dd967af7fc4cd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester United win the FA Cup? | Event: fa-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Ludvig Aberg win the U.S. Open? | Event:... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Zelensky" during Wednesday speech? | 60,877,898 | 60,877,898 |
db8e228c4e813c01a86ffc674f5857ac91aadd58 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xafe3e68c8db5d7f0496834087b007faeb0afd1bff124ef181f72fc2335606081 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles? | Event: french-open-mens-singles | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ludvig Aberg win the U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will one game in the 2024 NBA Finals series re... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Iran" 3 or more times during Wednesday speech? | 60,877,898 | 60,877,898 |
6fd47e24f577a6db7a8fff5afe4fcb549026751e | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xf0cbe6f3432c49f097011968b583eb1bf03e751ab5d667b479381648fdcd89b9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ludvig Aberg win the U.S. Open? | Event: us-open-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will one game in the 2024 NBA Finals series reach overtime? | Event: how-many-games-reach-ot-nba-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA C... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech | Will Trump say "Putin" during Wednesday speech? | 60,877,898 | 60,877,898 |
5f33c3235f141a6d16b4d194402a7ff94fb158a9 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x1cd582d176314011b2b0f71ef85a2f042f06065a0a1bd19430a15d80b6d70ecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will one game in the 2024 NBA Finals series reach overtime? | Event: how-many-games-reach-ot-nba-finals | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spain win Group ... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Kamala Harris DNC speech 60-75 minutes? | 60,932,501 | 60,932,501 |
ece7f904c7b0aa4f87bb70bd6cd05b346973a4bc | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xfcebd42e5d8a18bc4ac058ae6581384ef459e2459161b7b9c8c5140aa7743108 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Dallas Mavericks be 2023-24 NBA Champions? | Event: nba-champion-2023-24 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spain win Group B? | Event: euro-2024-group-b-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09834638506600608
3. Question: Will Croatia win Group B? | Event: euro-2024-group-b... | no | 1 | how-long-will-kamala-harriss-dnc-speech-be | Kamala Harris DNC speech under 30 minutes? | 60,932,501 | 60,932,501 |
7dd998a6fd0004e1dd8fe8dbdac656106b6d7e67 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x0a909afe0d1e0fa858f0fad96100ff9aa64c114e15ff7f16d785db242aefe5e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spain win Group B? | Event: euro-2024-group-b-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 0.09834638506600608
2. Question: Will Croatia win Group B? | Event: euro-2024-group-b-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Albania win? | Event: euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Choice: no |... | no | 1 | 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Will Florida win the 2024 Little League World Series? | 61,046,113 | 61,046,113 |
35999aca24ab80005e066e03f3dfb4de66fa1cdf | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x99771b651c4abd9c1a58ee8fe89e978f42f2ed1c794b382272ab7e76f71c1e34 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Croatia win Group B? | Event: euro-2024-group-b-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Albania win? | Event: euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Czechia win? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | 2024-little-league-world-series-champion | Will Chinese Taipei win the 2024 Little League World Series? | 61,046,113 | 61,046,113 |
e9ee1094a58627a78c6ecae2730fcce4e8ed4e15 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xfc7d466fc938614ac0e1909868ed1c7a32c4743618f22c17ae5356f243833f8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Albania win? | Event: euro-2024-croatia-vs-albania | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Czechia win? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | epl-arsenal-vs-brighton | Will Arsenal beat Brighton? | 61,267,876 | 61,267,876 |
36c0f8c6d15486771d1e5855e063a0b7226b97b7 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xb1d986d7d0f3ad06f5d67750be77c3c576ae9744dcbd8abd6dfc676867d78517 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Czechia win? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Czechia win Group F? | Event: euro-2024-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confide... | no | 1 | us-open-winner-m | Will Jannik Sinner win the US Open? | 61,592,917 | 61,592,917 |
1a5a424dd429f8e6a732de43e78881a2c7d3c0ef | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0xac298790a14bd2bdf34e100cd933a00e1f0adbb7d23dc65b430879f699e36e71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match be a draw? | Event: euro-2024-georgia-vs-czechia | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Czechia win Group F? | Event: euro-2024-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | Event: nhl-champion-2024 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | epl-newcastle-vs-manchester-city | Will Manchester City beat Newcastle? | 62,388,769 | 62,388,769 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.