sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
fe75b92e090d7536702019bbcded2e46d72bc7a6 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x3174826e9a8e66abbe4648aa539158276507c7e5405a9d4d09ea40b3f26c0109 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Czechia win Group F? | Event: euro-2024-group-f-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | Event: nhl-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999982977976237
3. Question: Will Switzerland win Group A? | Event: euro-2024-group-a-w... | no | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-michigan-rally-oct-3 | Will Trump say "Tampon" during Michigan rally? | 62,601,572 | 62,601,572 |
86f619b5aef830f1099329c6919a5d22c3465697 | 0x18566a94b6983fe9d2537c0316aa0b6c89601964 | 0x4744e47b4b8582eaf308693c261386a4c7acdf162346cb65c1f62f0b07e966c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup? | Event: nhl-champion-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999982977976237
2. Question: Will Switzerland win Group A? | Event: euro-2024-group-a-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Austria win Group D? | Event: euro-2024-group-d-w... | yes | 1 | what-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-town-hall | Will Trump say "Kamala" 40 or more times during North Carolina town hall? | 62,647,396 | 62,647,396 |
f8b0e91b13b5659d8af53fb965b7fca5ccdc870c | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xcf6ee989453b44e532516119deeb5b581119bd0f09e065b4adec62ab280744d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League?
Event: champions-league-winner-2025
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | 68,975,772 | 68,975,772 |
8fe89aa3984fb359e247cf32ebffe7e3ffe92117 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xc0efde51bfbe5fcd309f4159edd90981f6f96e09be7a753e383741ec6ffd6052 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season?
Event: premier-league-2nd-place
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the ta... | yes | 1 | premier-league-2nd-place | Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | 71,463,958 | 71,463,958 |
9bbf2477f9272daa3223fcb91f9d8d9773655103 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x290cc280086fbd2b1df3c1a1654b3c2988b634ee5311ee7d7e6e9ab63aa33711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Will Vitinha be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | 72,229,951 | 72,229,951 |
866eadc3a0ddae12483cb590aed43eb504ae6089 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x5270539e0e8511afdc0acc52f6cf00281c93c980b2954d1bba353c6a2c2f2736 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Will João Neves be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | 72,229,951 | 72,229,951 |
864d0f13c0621cc8fe74c14c66c7b94473cc6796 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xc3d8db41106f234da1ee921bceb0c182a3bc0a2a83e8b516271dbddb532719d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Will Achraf Hakimi be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | 72,229,951 | 72,229,951 |
a57d587e0754bec57aea3b0ad71d47e71121c662 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x0f12b220b081a4077bec88a2cc77b025e174d319894dc5d266a27bdacec526e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-final-exact-score-338 | Will Portugal win 3-1? | 72,537,058 | 72,537,058 |
a6dbfd7caa2c466983bdd345a622cf7845de1b3e | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xc35632edf91069a4ff6302f83d8bd871d589077f37bab921ef743278cc085751 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-winner | Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? | 72,537,058 | 72,537,058 |
682693e0ad0910b6abecc2a87e9899a653ac6987 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x6bbe6f1dc4f8746922dce6548ef4a47138059d741d3f244c6000242a27930c15 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Will Bruno Fernandes be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | 72,573,339 | 72,573,339 |
f42f175109b6b0b4e18160779ac48539545e4325 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xad14874c4df52fa96ff603c44537630e4b96df4d3354de9aaf906b4df5bb6e8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,014,262 | 73,014,262 |
ec1604fabb0491c4a8821c204294d47b58b35c64 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x657758a013fdb2fb66b9b5ffad47b3bdd15974a0ad94080e0b4de751297a86b1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | 73,047,811 | 73,047,811 |
0e97e93d23d51d14285dd2eda80fabbf09193fc4 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xd7203736acfbc3f2712be49796c48baf4fb51766066797c56327927372b29072 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Urawa Red Diamonds win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,079,024 | 73,079,024 |
bc86f268624e79b27b923416185f39b8151e690c | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x58a6331f3d1d93ae204d90d5dfc0932b9a545a5cae5e3177b5ac25f32911eba8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,154,554 | 73,154,554 |
be78a514029f905a80f4feb7e1ce826e3f683ad6 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xc0e2be853273920befb2c6f33743e79e9502feacf7c2f4d1d049eab25f3e2344 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-palmeiras | Will Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras end in a draw? | 73,154,554 | 73,154,554 |
d771f6cf660a6f5a8b5adc6df01d7528fec60fb5 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x3dc9e9b25512d67561862dd7d199f6e9e49fd933141afb6ca576df099d27a711 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-bayern-munich | Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? | 73,195,207 | 73,195,207 |
b48f5c4bfbe901db8da7ab2fae38a376bc3ced30 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x6b72b7ed49926f26f0c0421798e1e39dd4ec88ec6ac80297a91588a2395e250e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | concacaf-gold-cup-guadeloupe-vs-guatemala | Will Guatemala beat Guadeloupe? | 73,195,207 | 73,195,207 |
d4ef97f41620b373000e6ff952515506fc222eeb | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x71e6fc7e1373fb34d1ee941a1c05c0fbb93feefe31f96b8b9f8b906d4dc53255 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-group-f-winner-714 | Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,236,558 | 73,236,558 |
61dfda4bae274a3b3dd42f2a47506a2ac76d5851 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x767ff3caaea87512574cc6843a60615852470988cdf5f859f8f26a72d9300161 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-urawa-vs-monterrey | Will Monterrey beat Urawa? | 73,236,558 | 73,236,558 |
8f5302c83f4092591f4226e380af3d5ee7a6d314 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x98fc32aea71cf9eed760dad59961d7794a9d3cee7263a0a9308f939cca19ba67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Sundowns FC win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,236,558 | 73,236,558 |
ef297f88fffe0be49a1ab2933bf8b264d0a0f0fb | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x937bd5640ba02b4aa66c64f9c12c116132e62651903a0ded4981b253b7e0da95 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,341,559 | 73,341,559 |
92beb2a5ee49a2067fbe730e843f46d7526c6ddf | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xf6f58ffd808919cc8e8d0e9e005faddade481ec72f26afd155f5ba7a6768b50f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | concacaf-2025-gold-cup-winner | Will Costa Rica win the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup? | 73,410,529 | 73,410,529 |
b513b1a985e435c71d8ae7b4724f82287c79b4df | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x1c5d7e11ab0e182f085c8482f73919015fa8b6ef57db054541239fe8567ab926 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | no | 0.999927 | concacaf-2025-gold-cup-winner | Will Guatemala win the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup? | 73,535,301 | 73,535,301 |
37056f1792f4d433a575bc31798e074b25a21525 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x6bbbd583052dad56f6a5237b6d31a9b659ec3b0bf2a3cce67e0572f75f8e4665 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-most-goals | Will Rodri score the most total goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,600,018 | 73,600,018 |
8264c1a8dc409433a0b6768838ac07749796b1ce | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x97d1ffdd8788fa14edaa4b10fbddc5bf8eb7164b9250e264c4e73d229b83dca7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | Will a club from Saudi Arabia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,600,018 | 73,600,018 |
0525291585f61e68af02b0ffa4122c2bc4184a12 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x00aba4cc8f81ff4a5a6bd9c7d14773a41caf264c0fe2a40400c36d3237f17a08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Kingsley Coman be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,624,288 | 73,624,288 |
18425f3d3665da75c7609b8c3c7384266ca4478e | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x2eff01f6a8a8d11803725eedeb0ad2d9418115481be5624c928214e21b80e028 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | no | 0.855196 | fifa-club-world-cup-most-goals | Will Harry Kane score the most total goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,624,288 | 73,624,288 |
ce188c03c081d49f4033fbf967ff313de603aa3a | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x9ff6904402ceae7026437f8b29258abde8c4f868bbec2906006c1c39c22ed5b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Marcos Leonardo be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,650,577 | 73,650,577 |
4bfbae9b40c652d574b43d6cb4f7a0e151971dd2 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xca5e7d62c222c023c1848e603ad39be244d8b3c2826a76d0443d14814c4c22e5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-what-country-will-the-champion-club-be-from | Will a club from Germany win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,650,577 | 73,650,577 |
d9a57f961abe2e1da1bc5926f67c3393d1a5bc84 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x04d13f114742f7c3e720f3c09a11940c9acae7d5097936653b4cd42d7cfc9f01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-exact-score | Will Mexico win 2–1? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
de3fc1c4621d284df27ce60951e085758e8f5535 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x2440860b9df5842d36c39858f7fe1d016bb378a349a902b073d3f9f41146d857 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | yes | 1 | gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-exact-score | Will Mexico win 3–2? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
31e4f678b57c5bd1484be186c5cb94952a57f29e | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x5d40df8c0c900987141102b66e2e5d77cac4757a35f8b47919602afcf92e5399 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Liam Lawson finish in 3rd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
e72b20ac5c4f56e2db66193dd75b8447a8a235bf | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x7345a27aa8ec1e95e8453c03cfab1d854e887357a22b6cc046489bc8b0b9ba11 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Event: champions-league-winner-2025 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Vitinha be na... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish in 3rd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
36997da2d3ddcf325f8b5814f41e0c604f719f21 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x7cd28a4000aca7a8facaa57a9cec23933c2ed3433501d0946a9d248cd7e4f86f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? | Event: premier-league-2nd-place | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Vitinha be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | Event: champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence:... | yes | 1 | gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-exact-score | Will Mexico win 4–1? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
46f4aef6c5d36501416d54a93baa3e4769531e49 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x84d8f7694e04537f044b65144c1e40f36588aadfaad4cdd6b9849f8d3678bd55 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Vitinha be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | Event: champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will João Neves be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | Event: champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Choice: yes... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Isack Hadjar finish in 3rd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
aa9b1cba2708a4589637bb565e636817edff3100 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x9bbe712c76703c5530dcf0d6682fa322438d0bc6c91887c4e93874e9ac3119d1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will João Neves be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | Event: champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Achraf Hakimi be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | Event: champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Choic... | yes | 1 | gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-exact-score | Will Mexico win 4–2? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
6eafe270a6cac02651aed5a8bf3aba3f33af96bc | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xcf7427fc3973bc556a0bc7bbbf00b95c394611327a66a5f41657b9f7a8cbbad2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Achraf Hakimi be named the Champions League Final man of the match? | Event: champions-league-final-man-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win 3-1? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-exact-score-338 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Po... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-3rd-place | Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish in 3rd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
bd2d92585cfab1e025e77d067f6324b62ebe66eb | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xf1381869705312857ec0ae6482156c4d3c37c8ddd3eef9f177d34863bee5e9be | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win 3-1? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-exact-score-338 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? | Event: uefa-nations-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Bruno Fernandes be named UEFA Nations League ... | yes | 1 | gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-exact-score | Will Mexico win 3–1? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
5ebbe5606593189d23e7f1a0938f4cceb9a32c99 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xf224fbf506ae27ed86aec644b70f442f35b382b5ff775bc0f51e1595fb591830 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? | Event: uefa-nations-league-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Bruno Fernandes be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | concacaf-2025-gold-cup-winner | Will Mexico win the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup? | 73,697,565 | 73,697,565 |
06756797fb8530f27b4fc1c9cf22ca5a3680abb0 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xd77ff869b615a90e5df9ddf643e351992753a373fcb2d46263f09ecddee22ad2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Bruno Fernandes be named UEFA Nations League Final Player of the Match? | Event: uefa-nations-league-final-player-of-the-match | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-most-goals | Will Vinicius Junior score the most total goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,819,156 | 73,819,156 |
4e1b896994c7518dbed9621573961c044467e484 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xda20954a27d3c0968839811fe67f8f26a068cc8756f1c35cc02d59c68bff1cb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 0.999543 | fifa-club-world-cup-most-goals | Will Kylian Mbappé score the most total goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,819,156 | 73,819,156 |
5f4bfb03180bb198e366734cd0c70fd9f453006e | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0xfa7f0e7da56ce356d6677995ce0cab55685436a3770df4039f582ad6830e8bbf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Benfica vs. Auckland City end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-benfica-vs-auckland-city | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Urawa Red Diamonds win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Palmeiras... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Vinícius Júnior be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,819,156 | 73,819,156 |
761319eec4ce54b66c608cbdb457ea4a3e48bb37 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x011687e24c69cb619c92edb305b70e8df0ade48ce52f95e83f26f9ae907a86dd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Urawa Red Diamonds win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter ... | yes | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-most-goals | Will Ousmane Dembélé score the most total goals in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,942,673 | 73,942,673 |
380696df36a542cb0276547cdb65fbf57da25b84 | 0x187365dee1866e49c87fba10734375615d5d37b6 | 0x2fa6415fb5a4d5647fc96408fc5536041d47a02e19ca042e9c944820dd19276f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Palmeiras win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-group-a-winner-632 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras end in a draw? | Event: fifa-club-world-cup-inter-miami-vs-palmeiras | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: ... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-top-goalscorer | Will Désiré Doué be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,942,673 | 73,942,673 |
0d24f48fe89b72a2bee1a0525b337cbe5e5556be | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x784d9e43e80a4c98ade1cf958ae1d43495e41911f3f6f2c730f2f32dfd1f685f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09?
Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | 64,087,708 | 64,087,708 |
d7ba58787ae0bd2733991b21a8c987e400cb2f39 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x03d1d0d81a286acf53b88bcb72129db10eb4d30ea6366a59821c48a24b97b9f7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09?
Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confi... | yes | 1 | epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | 64,098,087 | 64,098,087 |
804a04f2f8584c1fab4872ec7f0e7ad2d462eef3 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x9f23cc18798b41dacef58a53cc8744b7d73de0d5cfa78e8a1c73c9c11d53fd61 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw?
Event: epl-cry... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ful-2024-11-09 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | 64,098,087 | 64,098,087 |
c49b32da2398feebe43248fd87e42ea8e2a5cd8e | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xcbd1b88f39a7af0f69b16976a9527c97a75ee183b574752e729a9f64fef9b29f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Will Brighton win on 2024-11-09? | 64,098,087 | 64,098,087 |
40d35534a1c56bdb044c60588ffdc1d1d15d28f3 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x02ec657965262158c77881ea43715ddce265d9b40c37a1ae8d2be4ad9e40960a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | 64,138,241 | 64,138,241 |
0350c6538b13e65f3e6f9b6c481939e8edac3b5e | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x7953d53f92c20b3562a8f8f1f4adbd1af45db36ed808b477c8514d1088cbac37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Will Leicester win on 2024-11-10? | 64,138,241 | 64,138,241 |
96a0942a76fd2c80d172554c8153357e0c97a842 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xef1f7f0bd9c057126f18c712aecdd38189171e7ca1551ed94ad23db5b21592f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 64,138,241 | 64,138,241 |
a5a1cd2b40c73d1eda2659a1fc641b89cf1ef25e | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xf82498dda86c4063113f62aae4c69e4024d9bdd28726a9ea8ae397e45b767ada | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | 64,138,241 | 64,138,241 |
cd7071e5c93ff0b51af7f29b289ac255aa62f7f3 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x9c23593b309f27a4e05f059032d59c2a37f8bb10d126ac7e22014593a07fa9a6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | 64,350,634 | 64,350,634 |
1fed5fb28d9c7c66808d63dc00671d5b04a71003 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x7f0283796b1ad832d61fd74e2c27347227c75cbc56c7013e5cb0b7c76ee01912 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23? | 64,645,297 | 64,645,297 |
1215b7fe6b6411fd02d37e2d1f038067c708ec2d | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x8d3fc318619d9e7fc5dd0d1e70f6209624e56c619370e4b32ee3db547ee75659 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | las-vegas-grand-prix-winner | Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | 64,683,972 | 64,683,972 |
c7505d84ada149661866176f8b578aaf66f5cb91 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x6c9d0deb95dea7937d5e29fd0af0649fe304a916f462e34f0d720362773e4326 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-bou-2024-11-30 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-11-30? | 64,943,675 | 64,943,675 |
20493666db864b0521abac75d6ed40221f8102e5 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x8a4d0386b11227013777f7aca7579ab08b225fd6007096e58a0c3e719af874b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-new-2024-11-30 | Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-30? | 64,943,675 | 64,943,675 |
5b7b3a4a6665125611c9aeb40c074f234373206f | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xb28b55f7a70d0a5c5910c102b2fbf0d509baaed525968c796766358aeaf7e752 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-not-ips-2024-11-30 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-30? | 64,943,675 | 64,943,675 |
5c9a9b2c6d7839ce5fbd660adad23d094b808d95 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xd0431c4b3c5a1db97224afa0feec57cdba3abc880824d75398838748a680c658 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-lei-2024-11-30 | Will Brentford win on 2024-11-30? | 64,943,675 | 64,943,675 |
9eaa5f6f252635bc5b12e1b38181bb1d121d0fc5 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xeedf49438f58b8dbaad3c89ec97a6cd7be30c38b6757c52f812e3909512b949e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | 64,943,675 | 64,943,675 |
f64fd08a908e85bfc1187e1789a994484a16a19c | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xd2952122167b52b324a4019d29482f43a9c09229dca692be86e10972bcf05fbe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mun-eve-2024-12-01 | Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? | 64,964,267 | 64,964,267 |
3cfcc5b054869de51626cd0b28fa8756a1937eb1 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xa31fd909f90ad66b6a9339d4a3fddf299b4d720bcd318484bfb7898fa6f532e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-mac-not-2024-12-04 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04? | 65,096,868 | 65,096,868 |
e53ae73274eb0af23fd79b5b5cbeba24e33d6a78 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x7feafa3f1f156980a734def137e086071e02dee8a1567a53ea5e02597477e3f2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-bri-2024-12-05 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? | 65,140,129 | 65,140,129 |
a5e0a5c45b8edf388aea5bea25d4d9f1ce98e745 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xfd8167b6e1bd8189de282d81341af6028cdf6b51f3f04fa1a6bd62b38fd6b74f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-bou-tot-2024-12-05 | Will Bournemouth win on 2024-12-05? | 65,140,129 | 65,140,129 |
9a125de2253ac93d397d6e77efd39c9ce5c487a4 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x25ff2e6566b828d6842537ec0236f2c326db19ad085251b472565c62143e0a1f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-bre-new-2024-12-07 | Will Brentford win on 2024-12-07? | 65,216,070 | 65,216,070 |
92ce3e17f2c06dc6b305f8299e5a837b8c0f6591 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x9798b58cab1030a3b5d75ee291d5ac9598f5e53ee13f6ddd0bf525313ef593dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-sou-2024-12-07 | Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-07? | 65,216,070 | 65,216,070 |
4847fd22464d4688b5874231a896473472d382ea | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x53d67612608ce8063fd1504a60f3b43d763a82cc17e87c1d1200a96c50e53669 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-bri-2024-12-08 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? | 65,242,847 | 65,242,847 |
4d4df51902d3c423a47aba8cb0f17db806788d20 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xa6ed954e535c70952bce0c0bd35f2169f04793e6b5eb0178b527e4e75f68044f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-tot-che-2024-12-08 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? | 65,256,694 | 65,256,694 |
b57cbc56971600bf6463328132a30c275860708a | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xe2965468acccafbd769725ce0ff37ac6645a15c8b68df7f564127e2b676ed1fd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ars-2024-12-08 | Will Fulham win on 2024-12-08? | 65,256,694 | 65,256,694 |
e1886c7906eecfee6d3a7742110a3362fe4e4ad2 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x6852003f2ad09217506e8a2ba2670d4c2b81aea406bc24246f271d5e909f6d3c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-eve-2024-12-14 | Will Everton win on 2024-12-14? | 65,486,033 | 65,486,033 |
97eba42e897f21257f15ee0daa7a241c7490a33b | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x9975a9d4d61bf8b0cd5d0413c7d3462c53a06bab0101bf16347f88652f6e56c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-new-lei-2024-12-14 | Will Leicester win on 2024-12-14? | 65,486,033 | 65,486,033 |
a9c47360d20e746b7cacce46aca54528a4b97b85 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xe888d05077fdd912077d620789be754f6df2fb6ed0005f4569bfa6ab41d73635 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-cry-2024-12-15 | Will Brighton win on 2024-12-15? | 65,524,439 | 65,524,439 |
3ebf720723b854096cd7b54f4c976c94d45d3ecf | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xc9a08721fb6a91eb384db0bf5b77fb6401e32aa42f474f89b7dec1b633050637 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-sou-tot-2024-12-15 | Will Southampton win on 2024-12-15? | 65,537,169 | 65,537,169 |
84f175790b8bd6c1a10d183f973182533be598aa | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xd31fa45d4231da1c2f34f272cf341e007d475fb63e1e124009324fab78a94670 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-che-bre-2024-12-15 | Will Brentford win on 2024-12-15? | 65,537,169 | 65,537,169 |
d92e00a3e5c31e2d6a4c9a779af958bf8eb71ddf | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xa2610270667f42e7f7c006a28d6cfa01ac9e0214c481df706560cb6dc0de9c25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Everton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-wes-eve-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-1... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-mac-2024-12-21 | Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-21? | 65,761,442 | 65,761,442 |
7e916692a349c0f01dfe32cde6297064a6124389 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x2a2a1b786ba275d2c9efb6201ed053cd637b56873b1fc44f795c047a7fee5f17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-liv-ast-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ars-2024-12-21 | Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-21? | 65,780,733 | 65,780,733 |
5fd3f2c6df35228d48d5f2956998daa315642816 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x85fcec5cb5007bb00d3306c244b500011a04d4adf25e7044a59145d303986a26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Crystal Palace vs. Fulham end in a draw? | Event: epl-cry-ful-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11... | no | 1 | epl-eve-che-2024-12-22 | Will Everton vs. Chelsea end in a draw? | 65,802,489 | 65,802,489 |
f98edd7b367635404001525aa288937feb5d5d83 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x2e2b8f6ba0950fea736db76f8f6f6587406ca2d656e0cbdc0d86401b7d1af0bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2024-11-09? | Event: epl-bri-mac-2024-11-09 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Choice... | no | 1 | epl-bri-bre-2024-12-27 | Will Brighton vs. Brentford end in a draw? | 66,007,516 | 66,007,516 |
720ebcfd1cba3aefb949a48606471ea523e37978 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xd56cfc5903265518077b6acb045fbfdf266b04cd30d157d6e01efeeb2e78c2a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-che-ars-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | C... | yes | 1 | epl-ars-ips-2024-12-27 | Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-27? | 66,007,516 | 66,007,516 |
cf103e44c59b88d622328d1953c3a92df384afb1 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x3100d6cbb5a0600cdae4685b07af5090bcd87c4ffc1933bc4f4a47526258e5b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Leicester win on 2024-11-10? | Event: epl-mun-lei-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: epl-no... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-sou-2024-12-29 | Will Southampton win on 2024-12-29? | 66,076,418 | 66,076,418 |
ff56ccbd8d077e4a075e3493ebe8e47c9ed7f825 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xce25d36e1cb4fd1ac2c422131a799feb9c33ace13d4fa896aec1c02c1f3a39f1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Spurs vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-tot-ips-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike ... | no | 1 | epl-tot-wol-2024-12-29 | Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? | 66,076,418 | 66,076,418 |
e3a75cef0ab29c5af8ae3fb234492bb77d2d7239 | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0x795eab1e09861d76d7cd04f942cf9eb743b78870a3aa7d7ad8d513676f22609a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw? | Event: epl-not-new-2024-11-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Chelsea win ... | yes | 1 | epl-ips-che-2024-12-30 | Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30? | 66,124,048 | 66,124,048 |
5660f928a1b13ef84859fe06f030cc20183c1b5b | 0x1875d611c00b4e69e6b9198763edcfc7d1b0eb5e | 0xa09a74d8a172b8dbc90722aca024c89a954743b063a7ab75ccab589a32d23602 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23? | Event: epl-lei-che-2024-11-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Ve... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Will Ipswich win on 2025-01-05? | 66,355,442 | 66,355,442 |
dbd1734eec3f5add71e8db77f92617020157c7a7 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x5817e148183be3af45455699ed92fbf2ba4846525f94e6710ac454bc9dc9d002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04?
Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | 66,372,095 | 66,372,095 |
8269b30863cb68d96dcfe4f3b9a6a90d9e18ae3d | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0xd3b5e480ff00889945ceae1c891d6eee68c3880d66290c142f256a55cc0d94fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw?
Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | 66,372,101 | 66,372,101 |
d666a7a51659da28b3c8094197e898d96afcfa7d | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0xd971abf6d25fb08d4386846f314b57f33e09f3cf8a1327de3c731f6d29b837cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between ... | yes | 1 | december-2024-temperature-increase-c | Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | 66,543,322 | 66,543,322 |
b2d0baa5f40c0ecfc88023ac5d28e57000703868 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0xd344423e44d5b150bb24fc9b85915b7b45db55babd7e067c94dd354a0f8ff765 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | cotton-bowl-special | Will Jeremiah Smith NOT score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers throw an interception? | 66,563,516 | 66,563,516 |
c11eca3d46c84b38cd04486000377f1008696b9e | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x1b950c08a2155617b0065eb927825207323d20373f8e4daccd1ec914487f9a36 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 1 | how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-in-his-first-week-lower-options | Will Donald Trump issue 34-36 executive orders in his first week? | 67,554,534 | 67,554,534 |
76ecc77e34a04c3e30753037414445d8402e499c | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x8407ea19f9b4bdb1a1fb1d4b81218e4e8e0d6eabcf8729a98ad67576bdf5ef25 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-jan-24 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on January 24? | 67,554,550 | 67,554,550 |
342029a3e803b0a71901678549013a4fad4fbb17 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0xdc6e4ab179992dc1422776f36d77ee99fda0e67e6d3dabd43aad3a8fbd6c3a5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 0.342857 | of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Will Kai and Speed take 150-174 attempts to beat Fortnite? | 67,566,766 | 67,566,777 |
0894575bfa7514af27555536162e781d9aff7278 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x2e98f238cc986e01b16dcdd8a10d9ee20fdb9ed9c4f6d4ae2b18b673785743c3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Will Kai and Speed take 125-149 attempts to beat Fortnite? | 67,567,670 | 67,567,670 |
f7922118e84f8510a88b9f1dc0c97ef8464bb969 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x13d17317b5a94593a639b517975017617af8680abe8609c9fdf3162971943b80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 1 | of-attempts-for-kai-and-speed-to-beat-fortnite-2 | Will Kai and Speed take 50-74 attempts to beat Fortnite? | 67,571,211 | 67,571,211 |
ae8d7140aaccb14522ef27b811467e5cb74d2c3f | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x410b5ed650365f768e78b00663bc660d97030e932f95f4806dbac655d86a8687 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-5 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 5? | 67,599,746 | 67,599,746 |
80d8b261c993ad5d5eeff20a20bdaf8128871614 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x271ebb90229a2255dbab51e9f73b4d81619ac453fe4a54f0150c259a936d449d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-5 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 5? | 67,599,769 | 67,599,769 |
13ed67fa8e841c3f03e12f1c9920c22eee090b83 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0xf11c8514e43a75ea697190ddc6488eb6add613b7afe106f44201840813257200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 0.166667 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-5 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5? | 67,604,003 | 67,604,013 |
fb81cbe73f8429dc68e4c2cf9cbf2a5cfb5195ec | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x12246864fded8dc1339edd5dae08f29c854a7e7fdf80b775f7c44900fda2d807 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-jan-31-feb-7-higher-options | Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? | 67,666,947 | 67,666,947 |
c65ed7dfa1f02ebdab3cebe7552c24da8fa75e54 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x38b3f83975b123fd50d1de3cb58e32bc48bf35a5766d4dded790d8c25f1226e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-january | Will there be 100-150k jobs added in January 2025? | 67,666,950 | 67,666,950 |
fab0c29c1dc830bc986833a1314394507d4a1d9c | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x9c7c99d40b27e6f415ac96353b9396b9cdf82711ebaccd1fce99b0f5afbec243 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | la-liga-real-madrid-vs-atletico-madrid | Will Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid? | 67,709,062 | 67,709,062 |
5b06f59e5d64f2416b945106dd0bc1906e0f1647 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0xfff93d289ea6a004674c4153f29b175287754d18030d7d8eb90f6b7bee5d3c0f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 1 | superbowl-lix-exact-outcome | Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX? | 67,787,487 | 67,787,487 |
b9e2fcb16739ec47dbe3eb16df37e3655f9426a8 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x1d8821183636eb50838d5fb9bd7ee7b5a5d7c37a43eca8402a09d3a248a73717 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | super-bowl-lix-mvp | Will Saquon Barkley win Super Bowl LIX MVP? | 67,787,494 | 67,787,494 |
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