sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51bc45205f1f7966805480b422926d89d7a5d9ac | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x122ba4bb662dbc9a73e61ec15d7d261f80a5437e897f9739467d7b18db3460b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-january | Will egg prices be greater than $5 for January? | 67,858,365 | 67,858,365 |
5844fa3daca9e77837c4f4b2c72dc99b452937a3 | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x519d733af3a8047640ff6e65c5901bf0e60ce9bf3ca651a63e53e5b70a02914f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | yes | 1 | ucl-fey-mil-2025-02-12 | Will Feyenoord win on 2025-02-12? | 67,858,378 | 67,858,378 |
491a1ed14741657555b57b10318438ef0d59209e | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x5ab5c6e20ca40cb31b779daa04d6eac96b4050b0c05d9ee9f0883e118647c2cb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 1 | ucl-cel-bay-2025-02-12 | Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-12? | 67,858,386 | 67,858,386 |
b1982a3b158d6cb98e82d12bbe42c15831f5ca0c | 0x188befdb6d80d22eb4a54b5a49fb318ec1428ef3 | 0x81480ffeca5bb908bd880d9835fc495e52565b20c0aad87d64bc28da183c935c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? | Event: epl-bri-ars-2025-01-04 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Fulham vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | Event: epl-ful-ips-2025-01-05 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? ... | no | 1 | january-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or more in January? | 67,858,408 | 67,858,408 |
80de8ad84373e46fff99b9a4a8979883d03af21d | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x39f4444aab6f78ef8de5215b350e4e4eb22ae75a579870dafa1627dcd2ccc335 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET?
Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | 74,201,509 | 74,201,509 |
5b71326bbe138be651aa881a872432f785f5e3f6 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x449d50aa6474fce993013d27fd98846a436daf8cd7d03277547f8024ed60a82d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET?
Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et
Predict the user... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | 74,201,509 | 74,201,509 |
6f6990606cdfa451c676843b69d4c1891e5bdbdc | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x636eb8dfa8ed40b2ef5423a2930230d7783efccf594cf391249eb9e7a2d8ebb7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | 74,201,509 | 74,201,509 |
1d1367cf2066d6363a4db0c0f1d01a85503d1a27 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x7294cc6d355f9cf7b28d4f29faf781030da15f6313375811645126f2d2845511 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | 74,201,509 | 74,201,509 |
bd0344042c5b40ff1888e27832e017accfd4c7a3 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x79dcf0d36a9a8c7f30715ab604a85c412573710ec5a3c1363ed582db2a0fa7d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 0.444445 | bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | 74,201,509 | 74,284,370 |
621d2ebd6d4af3d6e81cb543dc6026deab0e5527 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x9025b045c56d0bea192df900628a60a107a2c1b23f3e54e41bc79ddfbf46fdd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-21-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 21 at 5PM ET? | 74,284,370 | 74,284,370 |
e452f71d0134ff9c69f5f3902ad8d6cb3e2f70fb | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0xfe91dac378cdb09a00b0313d6aad20966896c4f74717462d6f4994d90ff5b111 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | 74,284,370 | 74,284,370 |
e674155f712efddbc1a1f365cf342124da5d1085 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x57ef08f6c30ee5978509ff296175df5b784434eb5e3502762e90349bd015d940 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 0.99659 | ethereum-price-july-22-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on July 22 at 5PM ET? | 74,295,854 | 74,295,854 |
ed5b781b6757b7f4e9f8185e2d92a5f790752c05 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x3b2aee8b1ba4dedaf17fff2d08a8e626f8a121fe11409ccee7925570ca110b28 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-24-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $118K on July 24 at 5PM ET? | 74,373,008 | 74,373,008 |
a4b9b5d00fea667384c28cebf4131c0cbd02952e | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x1abad3c7acd664c1760d1b97b385db25b3c09921ac099b31e2b499860c54a821 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | solana-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on July 25? | 74,405,728 | 74,405,728 |
8dbeb9d3b1c603dac63b73238f80f5a0e0630e01 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x1b25a68c9f0120cf620f3df16ba35e5a26bd7d5f5ee688cdc5dc33e1c76dff12 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on July 25? | 74,405,728 | 74,405,728 |
5471896683dff813310f5c019bb22dfb7a9a9b0d | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0xec1160e02d239102f65f8f9788f0d5282377ca66b5faaf15afd0faba3f9f442c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 25? | 74,405,728 | 74,405,728 |
9dfaebb3456fa44853988c90a4c6a464f6ebd1d9 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x0c938f2c73fe75207041d3bdd8b6cc68f986113d4e9eeda2210b1ebabe8e9957 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on July 25? | 74,405,904 | 74,405,904 |
51b7218b39d0cf8fdb86fbd7ebfc9a2ae0dff911 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x28310cec5ab316cb37f28ceaeea482e07cfbb8c49695d47553c0fdb8b961eb52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-july-25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on July 25? | 74,405,904 | 74,405,904 |
498328e297e9f8a45be17549b10769cd65a0d188 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x44798db1aa559c01705b085a1391530d6c2aa41e43842ec64bec6acae6d0ba26 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-25-5pm-et-858 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on July 25 at 5PM ET? | 74,414,530 | 74,414,530 |
8b90191f50445479ec13e05e6afa4babca08e9cc | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0xc9f4516bbf2db930aadbaa39a401d093370d9c1403b4d54fb7175d58cbf46e39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-25-5pm-et-858 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 25 at 5PM ET? | 74,414,530 | 74,414,530 |
cd825b1d910b78a40d50c31c54d27675ee7bc720 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x0d62231b40d904b2f82254ccfdc1791e772cb500b8a95e75bff270a64a22472c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-25-5pm-et-125 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 25 at 5PM ET? | 74,414,580 | 74,414,580 |
230a791d0b9e9d653a4930d0ecb8936d49019430 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x09bf3b2ec484ba7159ce2bf6befde810889f2471343df47a2d0c4ebd08e68a39 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-july-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on July 26 at 5PM ET? | 74,454,564 | 74,454,564 |
29c4d0c9a31d44e0798edbe2119158479201072e | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x75816676dfaf12f385715006c0a2b891d20c7e6ee734bf2b7e2483596f02ec03 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 26 at 5PM ET? | 74,454,564 | 74,454,564 |
93e06be1c0dd5a0f6c7c0e6e56b9b07f05a4f8ca | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0x9e17e857249f9d7f41a9b965f57bb0ff1edf5b2ee2f40df7c669a7328682b1a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on July 26 at 5PM ET? | 74,454,564 | 74,454,564 |
d3fea3becd1bad2e9eac04f52e07416302c17895 | 0x18c11cda065295d04597a7ec0b9a05bba5847152 | 0xaca781e1fb0e4d73ba8fb9d413e42e34e275f8a7cf1277ed307ce8618d585365 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on July 19 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-19-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-26-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $116K on July 26 at 5PM ET? | 74,454,564 | 74,454,564 |
9e7f19c5ff7e7112470a775364fe459afe6c9219 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x42aa89685e83f5baae9fa2e3fee897b9bbc1705ba532850cb348db3255105d08 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | up | 0.452954 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | 75,031,506 | 75,031,506 |
a8fcde9d5a87278b278d2cd00f0ed75a530e1be9 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x3bddbe7db6244fce2e81f819b9ffc4b58a0efe7da138646cf395c567c487b444 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
Target market:
Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET
Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the targ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | 75,251,505 | 75,454,257 |
8a00a8880b1eac8a9f015dee6c974e10325a22f0 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xd15c3a217559b4edf44abdd9667513ecc69e965ac8d773147c5f88054505f810 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Bitcoi... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5AM ET | 75,271,300 | 75,271,300 |
288f19549d91ca821ff60e7a2b5d7ad687a3bd06 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xdd167516df2b96829f1a23e0964f63868fce0ecdd03a2a0df0509a8d5e659bfe | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9AM ET | 75,278,258 | 75,278,258 |
af99b22843763665345520c0958c53797e14d0ac | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xa2b5886808bd63598ff466e95a7db314b87ae1ad99c919e3f756b2dfe7c9d7df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10AM ET | 75,279,838 | 75,279,838 |
fd22668d28a54ac3f86bb3c2f25ff90b3f111cf0 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x530ffd10531eebd22ffa7dbf8dfedad0118b3d1cbad95c3627b7fdf7893a0c6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 3PM ET | 75,287,412 | 75,287,412 |
82cc02ac25d79adaf8ffd44c31e6210e90ff5e65 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xf93bcaeb54fb8e7c5fccfc6719322e4aef2a4bd47c15249810fccead363113ff | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-16-5pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 16, 5PM ET | 75,290,890 | 75,291,153 |
21aeb6b9a656ea5cbf724b2abc6c27ac4d617d61 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x6367ec28e7cf5e6e9bf3aae7a97b0793e131bb50d02d2ebfff432e8421c0e577 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5PM ET | 75,291,075 | 75,361,260 |
3aa5620c21e1fa2efb787270c6aad1c48afc1f1a | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xf562eb542b495874c162aeac862b3a1ce01d3cbd8d4049c45bbf7f907a94d9df | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-august-18-10am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 10AM ET | 75,361,073 | 75,454,260 |
9f7be0cbeb0b5b6ee07adb41755d3498263364bd | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xd426ce1a5a500cf75508b159879cbcf5198bc56614684d71e0c27a1dad2fbc2f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-18-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11AM ET | 75,363,350 | 75,454,263 |
2db18aa92f78735dcbf6dd743ed9a7ab671d702a | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x0b43f968149ee926f90612530ee1ce36b69219286ade29248b6235cb36e8af2a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-18-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4PM ET | 75,371,349 | 75,454,282 |
1b6ab518ca944b2f37262d91a5d48b23c4dc12ce | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x80b3e24fa4050db38755ecc06f59c08ae5d82ec38f061f345238cc8dc4b7912d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-august-19-5pm-et | XRP Up or Down - August 19, 5PM ET | 75,412,197 | 75,412,197 |
af50ae532d0585ecc131cacb2c051cede6bf186e | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xbce95ed0d32d8d3e742397ba5fb94643e2352a42a92c5a0bbe3a72876f244efb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-august-19-5pm-et | Solana Up or Down - August 19, 5PM ET | 75,412,252 | 75,412,252 |
483fb46d6cfc1c87114e8065ee41533bf6ddbdfd | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xa4adebb47f663f182855de8afae71a3e7250a54ad4d5b29de9a2ab1c8a67b0dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-20-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5PM ET | 75,454,225 | 75,454,225 |
9dd279c2f6e13d0f26600437b7834b389b854c86 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xadd828b1475de1f9671f5499253d228346f353fab764ba6ebe945133d80ea3eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5AM ET | 75,475,730 | 75,475,730 |
5cb881e7291006604923d4b66527db6bfb5b6d77 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x2bd48ae483e1d6d6da42e7f219aee9c06c99c30077631ec2d6456823d0985941 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6AM ET | 75,476,074 | 75,476,074 |
86c24f7d80e2379d823c646f9de1a585ae9b2cd6 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xbd29d50138990f7a5862cf5e60ff87f4f07622a7bff815dd98032dc606e29b37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-21-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6PM ET | 75,495,302 | 75,495,302 |
8242fc01f2083553f080e24efef40dcd0899ffe6 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x6be2a179b6ade281c26d5b68b8bc5ce6329bda56cde03d154f3dc351fc8e052a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 11AM ET | 75,523,226 | 75,560,867 |
15f0d4af0e496bf2832b353e89f8052e5f3954b7 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xc4b10f313f4ed595193c743eb14e95a76c29eff071c233e7234ea8ad7eb41592 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | up | 0.000085 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-22-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 5PM ET | 75,534,672 | 75,534,672 |
fadbe57b6b2dfd69e2658fdc00565a0c086d43d1 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x5f68dbf2f225975ed3558bfaf885f92612ae8cbde4b6a4ee384e6c50e2d2e6d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 10AM ET | 75,561,799 | 75,561,799 |
1c086dab0ee1e6eda9bea98080916d8dcddb3cbf | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xde576c5c4894bb0be9ecbe104b95eaaa12c61442b6f91bac681c2a39725110d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0.000192 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 3PM ET | 75,570,308 | 75,570,382 |
657522d7b3ad7f0b338bf496867f8de2634a4ad4 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x8d27650baa9419765af7ff4fc496102da34bb7bbf66a7cff07818c2a3e4517a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0.00039 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-23-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 7PM ET | 75,576,724 | 75,576,940 |
1a86583e3cdd1df89d16b84bbbfee14a6cd1ab28 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x5e1f1acad02468ab38ce6ac2148ec08b92346fcb22a2a32a0f30c16f90c98b6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-24-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 10AM ET | 75,600,674 | 75,601,631 |
484258a8b5834bc337a0f9bd290b2b54d8b1b4c8 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x9d9cb49bb5eb053870da3374a080447dd1b1c15125b0e62df32881ea8683b0ad | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-august-25-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2PM ET | 75,647,665 | 75,650,723 |
d5f80f92796e701df4268f1b672c4f01bd11e7f2 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x4fb1f4af5a40eb89e771b3e59478fff20d17d3916400363d4bae42c49b7c33bb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 6AM ET | 75,998,480 | 75,998,480 |
fe0866c875619808ee25e7ac91051e46a9cd984a | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xa7467e80e2dcb9786cde7fdf754d29172c7d0ea7935566e2da118593f9406a10 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | up | 0.00027 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-3-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 10AM ET | 76,006,621 | 76,006,621 |
70e47e2c23e094ae9d33e051584e5ef14de5c807 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x631036e8514cc69dc3d9f8327e48071d87d19fcaa3a1fa64e11272a74d2b850b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 11AM ET | 76,047,254 | 76,047,254 |
4a89786d5b81dbc7a441546276825af8e3e05703 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xdd630e611eb9ce9d244b24fb23d12c1266143670dddd18168605435e3adaa1c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 6PM ET | 76,060,528 | 76,160,829 |
c584dedae0a61257b55f612a7e547ac843741096 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x39e9c95b393f1e7c3e9c6f5fa30d78974f6c61b5cd08fa2d0787c6658d4f89e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-4-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7PM ET | 76,061,279 | 76,061,279 |
af27f97789f7a7b48f14c37e1aa9e742b579d5cf | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xe471597f3691fe01bc3667c1cb7349bc37a906971666861f16ca99ea4efbbe75 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11AM ET | 76,128,949 | 76,134,264 |
2187a86ffb87ec3de3f4b4101d11686fda875786 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x2da8e755d198e5934805e716b246a6df259c6d9dc755c14a5f1e2de4e1e6c007 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-10-5am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.45295404814004375
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 2PM ET | 76,135,224 | 76,160,829 |
aca4d464b03024bbb8e4db752d64279b86875ebb | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xef034421aa944029557e94790cab76818bde7abac2dc9ac6ee6528cc4a20990c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-15-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-6-3pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET | 76,135,931 | 76,136,617 |
19871ba3ace4cb4f906c682f4a49e46f9fead900 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x39f203c74a588a15eb47615d4aa9f41207d033ab8604c8cea8b306ce4fe4ff2e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-5am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-6am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6AM ET | 76,161,525 | 76,280,419 |
2c8dfdaffb2cf9d2a2c18394bb2a628712491b54 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xb30c2bb87559a99047e636bb0882012b9d0ca01e0282e39203a21c1423be230b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16,... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 7AM ET | 76,163,980 | 76,280,419 |
961d54bea08760506d35b0be33f8f0c0f89d2c21 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xa6f55826c3e9de7f019030849b459867327305473c388c7d4b78d4ccee1f30e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 16, ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 9AM ET | 76,167,360 | 76,280,419 |
e872421e8d8939996cc66729e929156cc9e69cd4 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xda87fa0c9bf82bcce928bae8a66f783f883d8dba65eabbfc5e627a7edac94fe3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 3PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-3pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 16, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5PM... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-7-10am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 10AM ET | 76,169,108 | 76,169,108 |
eefe0752bcb34935a4ba3147925ff7f35382a785 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0x2f94af8fc5a01cc6f56aaf6a1711a35f20cbf9f5687b1699252026b726e7fe98 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - August 16, 5PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 10... | down | 0.000032 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-8-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 9AM ET | 76,207,752 | 76,207,984 |
1f29c47a39e05d8cc6119efd53e0941666aeb775 | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xc7757c5fd837af7abd7e3841f8311cf8811e649f896a8fcffbb0d91223d2ca73 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 5PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-16-5pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-18-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-9-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4PM ET | 76,260,533 | 76,280,419 |
18aee9770e88de4100c2f678e2d33a0dc2a44fdc | 0x18d317d3e44e7563db166454941d87fa614bb84f | 0xfc85057f7f0809a74be39ac8778c6280fa8192a9ca2b973d29d90dab39a0d5b0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 10AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-august-18-10am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-august-18-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - August... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-september-9-5pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 5PM ET | 76,262,093 | 76,262,093 |
40f0d00bdc1698f48dc27853247c3c3d65c7ad5d | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x3a6acf2549df92049b1f788db939737de0739b7ba0bd043e55db5972e0ba2d74 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14?
Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | 77,690,434 | 77,690,434 |
0db400d0e6f092273c8c3248faf79828130c4c34 | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x7b7d436e6e9628f7b7acb9624e5e51939714937b40ea8fc7bd0944ab29910c7e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14?
Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output s... | yes | 1 | fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | 77,690,434 | 77,690,434 |
515267b9a2d55b348a0a2299e34fb73b14ef06cd | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0xb7b8e18465bd70eab1f584508c36d0ebc730b84cfbb4d1650f26ae5b56d2e5ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-1... | no | 1 | caf-alg-uga-2025-10-14 | Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | 77,690,434 | 77,690,434 |
a83b107ba889aa362ae3eb631c2f0bfd4ca828fc | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0xbb56299d0ebe4ce4516b0d1b1c4691726c13fc528cf32b6fb73e50f33701aa50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | no | 1 | fif-kor1-par-2025-10-14 | Will Korea Republic win on 2025-10-14? | 77,690,434 | 77,690,434 |
c4076819669f58a9076cd3e02d5357f40b5bd7ce | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x1b0179fd8e9ccdb5c2ace95000e7ab0a60208e4e1b40556d4f3d136c955f5a16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | gen.g | 1 | lol-al-gen-2025-10-16 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) | 77,800,297 | 77,800,297 |
27ec279be2622d80c3ba722e6e7aba22751904c2 | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x83eb68ba10e87fddbe9e49b88020ccec7f3b7d5e336374a817463bd91877099e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | yes | 0.000789 | bitcoin-above-on-october-16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 16? | 77,800,297 | 77,800,297 |
57b56bfdab8a2bf6eb98d5edc13925d550102a29 | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x9df713b6d337cfc8be298e7893ff2b4c75f079e19fa6084fbadec846569ad5b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | ctbc flying oyster | 0 | lol-hle1-cfo-2025-10-22 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) | 77,988,286 | 77,988,286 |
ef34e4914bfe95a6615b4eb1614748ec90fee38d | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x3dd21be714c7feafe4c8abb054799e36d6b88751f24ecfb3fe1e56f384e262a2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 22? | 77,993,842 | 77,993,842 |
5e0f432529020cc6838b34e0fa68d380db8a9036 | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x2cb00918cb386b2f4b44ce5f70f807f6d7f6e53fcf7a09be3d25ae3084d4ff50 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-october-22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 22? | 78,017,487 | 78,036,695 |
f58596408cb6bf9be0e85ce01522a0fd3999c9df | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x225d5bd8843d2cee5fc9a4d644b5967a547823aebc88ddf9172b688ee93c0836 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | no | 1 | ucl-asm-tot-2025-10-22 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-10-22? | 78,038,402 | 78,038,402 |
7082d2eb86067743f37eaac8e25ff897f0eb35d2 | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x101c88eb62b8f26175841cc73e390e796f13b5a4c239003e21ce28666cdd60a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | no | 1 | lib-lqu-pal-2025-10-23 | Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-23? | 78,093,655 | 78,093,655 |
697e57605b47054e7b542dcc0b9467dc20cf4418 | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0xac76ad792d5ea352b5103a630bb9beb3373dff81a8af816e42b6cb884b33364d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | yes | 0.2 | bitcoin-above-on-october-24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 24? | 78,099,599 | 78,108,340 |
aa210a251f68e4aee2adca01c35c6d8bc6925f1e | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x632a305bf510de8b9228345c572e03edb3424709f5bf67f0690b6f28b5864792 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | bra-sao-bah-2025-10-25 | Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-25? | 78,180,467 | 78,180,467 |
fa0b9b49fee7727ce66eccb7179fa6ab64128e1d | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x479546dc728e9e571556c34f1c52aa29b34a1503533c1af9cc41c4f652d945ca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-above-on-october-27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 27? | 78,232,413 | 78,234,581 |
b252332f9b79852706f5e6a71d7e84083b3329b7 | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x445eb5430cb025bf83c5cfbb392a72d4bea4b16eddedb8f51bc0135e7af9d8d2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | yes | 0.000446 | bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 28? | 78,239,644 | 78,246,091 |
7c901eff2819b92265789e442687c44cd1074fad | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0xd34662cab94afabc08dd225e4ae3f6e0465e659b0e2e9e72b1e7e65dc9846735 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | yes | 0.002103 | bitcoin-above-on-october-28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 28? | 78,279,215 | 78,279,215 |
54efadd22539120eac6ff8fcbbe8fb797552b96e | 0x191dbb22bcfff07b2157a1cd9eaec4a74c2f8a44 | 0x7345643255ede5a7d04fea557fc6e4aa2c038c9031f7920e9e1203785793ddc5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 14? | Event: bitcoin-above-on-october-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14? | Event: fif-nor-nzl-2025-10-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Algeria win on 2025-10-14? | Event... | yes | 1 | bra-bot-san-2025-10-26 | Will Santos FC win on 2025-10-26? | 78,324,957 | 78,324,957 |
72248bb96b41417b178aff2ad9a12c9cd51b4e2a | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x326a488d0460ffed23072e1cf7f3412ac44c123015f98f767493295d3a0b6d71 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS?
Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | 62,822,343 | 62,822,343 |
83894f08d86a8b5dc0ea732221fd34559c820f4b | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x87cba3577197cb942f3ae0c3226775cdee217d970407466220c9ff6fe0faecc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB?
Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "con... | yes | 1 | europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Will PAOK beat FCSB? | 62,822,348 | 62,822,348 |
1674f4bba5fd52b023644674b02e83e5d40e7975 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x16563483015c797937c0e1376ceb704aa0577799ca6a36c5fba01c2f4a26f4a0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg?
Event: europa-league-if-elfsbo... | yes | 1 | europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma | Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | 62,822,356 | 62,822,356 |
aa758f5ba5ecf76c5d13a728653794fab90212a0 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x451aa1ae87223b01908be509c4458fc488241f0071ec49cf2b20942c3010c349 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | europa-league-porto-vs-manchester-united | Will Porto beat Manchester United? | 62,822,387 | 62,822,387 |
431f3ed974b425bd112a2e164249a04c696eb1be | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | georgia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? | 64,044,363 | 64,044,363 |
83d3db214e12f408dcbf93537b47015e3b59c2e1 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x98bafdb1a843ad1ee3f10222f43c8b675940922b119c0e0364a219281306098f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | wisconsin-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election? | 64,044,368 | 64,044,368 |
e44f71f5069f0eff1208c5efaeda1d62e852fb7d | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x365aa7d66b1d98fbec772c5952d024e42002fbd5c8b20079efa1c6e14a2ea2c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | north-carolina-governor-election-winner | Will a Democrat win North Carolina Governor Election? | 64,044,371 | 64,044,371 |
4625183aed77bef0017666533658d5ded042d5ea | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x25e48d2f5c66a03982f233e67f8131159e884dc186e6a55cc2e413d07e74830c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | montana-us-senate-election-winner | Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election? | 64,044,380 | 64,044,380 |
d12c3344f05b37efb357bcdb4deb929f560271da | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x9b676d23387bb38b6265fdc0a3756631bf78d729867d32dd55acb9b1049d4e64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-december-2024 | No change in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? | 65,564,268 | 65,564,268 |
9e3016c2496b9536d1f91eb562fd4b2aa69aa7c2 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | when-will-satoshis-identity-be-proven | Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? | 66,657,083 | 66,657,083 |
8c9d84deaf502ce2f3fe5a99e7cb772f5dcf1665 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0xc4f606569acc4d2871bf0cae1b53d0a12dae9f289d2f1011b4ead72b066ac00a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | top-ai-model-on-january-31 | Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? | 67,410,842 | 67,410,842 |
ccdbd92b1f5fa795101e4544d47ebede43fc9ec4 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0xa04853f6baa8814ab3a94f49046e84de70a2714646f33b9fc37cdec3137560de | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | croatia-presidential-election | Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia? | 67,410,850 | 67,410,850 |
9f8c3a466676869c2fcb68f06ff2e444562b3897 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0xf1bc899c0b76482a9612746e6934cd26bb3f7d0cebb031507784510998641200 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | ecb-interest-rates-january-2025 | Will ECB lower interest rates by 25bps in January 2025? | 67,410,860 | 67,410,860 |
5547c9f97d6b6a84ff23ef638701186a582507f5 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x3fdf885d8c0a7d7e4c39e3578fb7c7221f160aec35cbaf81d5aff4f3d037134a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-next-friday | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7? | 67,836,703 | 67,836,703 |
7376f4f1478db4e10b5d3e7acbf7b70ada8f5a02 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0xd75113aabd84e9e8496079974d992ff779b27ba26d1788b2a6bbebc63a734259 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | super-bowl-lix-how-many-times-will-taylor-swift-be-shown-on-broadcast | Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 0 times? | 67,836,703 | 67,836,703 |
fdabef42d88788e30b872508a285728805db2c04 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x4df21c5fab6cc4b9b78aa241adb8f6ba66da0cdb66f1d44102c063e7d345981e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Lily Phillips has sex with 1000+ men in a day? | 68,601,328 | 68,601,328 |
0c9262b491105c2b8ab5655a1581053984185ab8 | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x6b790c67722d58142b1bac01a09b7e2241e98609c6516c4851b09fb5b88bf68f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-14 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 30°F or below on February 14? | 68,601,328 | 68,601,328 |
bbd516a7a8dfcfa69b4d85b41d18a92a39302bca | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0xafd524eb195251f56d98aa812df3215ab7881f607bab2aa690981a66db5d6a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-7-14-higher-options | Will Elon tweet less than 800 times Feb 7-14? | 68,601,328 | 68,601,328 |
25c3ab300bc404976c7cfe4a2cc2289b75b7e88e | 0x192c87314592d5c04cf464c65cfcee510a455230 | 0x59c7ebf281c4b842c3a2f23ef4939c96bd393aaacd6723eff2b6b623e4ca3b20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS? | Event: europa-league-fk-rfs-vs-galatasaray | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will PAOK beat FCSB? | Event: europa-league-paok-vs-fcsb | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Roma beat IF Elfsborg? | Event: europa-league-if-elfsborg-vs-roma ... | no | 1 | kanye-of-tweets-feb-28-march-7 | Will Kanye tweet 10-49 times Feb 28 - March 7? | 68,928,442 | 68,928,442 |
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