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What is the chance that 1.01k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.01k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.37k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in Geosciences, atmospheric, and ocean sciences?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.07k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in microbiology and immunology?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 543 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in public health?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.01k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 543 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in public health?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 368 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in genetics and genomics?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 543 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in public health?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 317 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in the field of philosophy?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 317 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in the field of philosophy?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 368 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in genetics and genomics?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 368 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in genetics and genomics?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that 361 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in pharmacology and toxicology?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 361 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in pharmacology and toxicology?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.56k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.56k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that less than 50% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US will have a driver's license by 2047? It might be the case that new technologies such as driverless cars and ride-sharing apps could make it so that someday only a small share of people have driver's licenses, and given that driver's licenses are oft...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 361 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in pharmacology and toxicology?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that 1.56k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that 317 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in the field of philosophy?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74 in the following years? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedi...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that less than 50% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US will have a driver's license by 2047? It might be the case that new technologies such as driverless cars and ride-sharing apps could make it so that someday only a small share of people have driver's licenses, and given that driver's licenses are oft...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that less than 50% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US will have a driver's license by 2047? It might be the case that new technologies such as driverless cars and ride-sharing apps could make it so that someday only a small share of people have driver's licenses, and given that driver's licenses are oft...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74 in the following years? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedi...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74 in the following years? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedi...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.81 in the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 325.3 in the following months?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 325.3 in the following months?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.87% in the year 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.87% in the year 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.44% in the year 2027?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 325.3 in the following months?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 281 in the year 2024?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 291% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 291% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.81 in the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.44% in the year 2027?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 281 in the year 2024?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.81 in the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.44% in the year 2027?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334 in the year 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 282 in the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.87% in the year 2026?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 282 in the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 327 in the year 2026?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 282 in the year 2025?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 327 in the year 2026?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334 in the year 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 291% in the following years?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 281 in the year 2024?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334 in the year 2027?
0.5
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030? Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.1 months in prison before 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2057? *Related Questions on Metaculus:* * [When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/) * [When...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2057? *Related Questions on Metaculus:* * [When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/) * [When...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a 75% change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2057? *Related Questions on Metaculus:* * [When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/) * [When...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a 75% change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global market for perovskite solar cells will be 144 million dollars in 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 327 in the year 2026?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global market for perovskite solar cells will be 144 million dollars in 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030? Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.1 months in prison before 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030? Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.1 months in prison before 2030?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.555% on the following dates?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.555% on the following dates?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that there will be a 75% change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.555% on the following dates?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.33 on September 30, 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.33 on September 30, 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.510 on June 30, 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 4.62 on December 31, 2024?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first fully automated McDonald's will open in the United States by 2034?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first fully automated McDonald's will open in the United States by 2034?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 4.62 on December 31, 2024?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.33 on September 30, 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the global market for perovskite solar cells will be 144 million dollars in 2030?
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that England will win a FIFA men's or women's world cup by 2029? The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) and [FIFA Women's World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Women%27s_World_Cup) are international association football tournaments held in intervals of 4 years. Th...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that England will win a FIFA men's or women's world cup by 2029? The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) and [FIFA Women's World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Women%27s_World_Cup) are international association football tournaments held in intervals of 4 years. Th...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that the first fully automated McDonald's will open in the United States by 2034?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that England will win a FIFA men's or women's world cup by 2029? The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) and [FIFA Women's World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Women%27s_World_Cup) are international association football tournaments held in intervals of 4 years. Th...
0.25
Metaculus
What is the chance that North Korea will first put a person in space by 2057? [North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea), officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a country in East Asia. According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that North Korea will first put a person in space by 2057? [North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea), officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a country in East Asia. According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that North Korea will first put a person in space by 2057? [North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea), officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a country in East Asia. According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state...
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.510 on June 30, 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.510 on June 30, 2024?
0.75
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030? Keyword: 123 Percentage: 75% Reframed Question: What is the chance that Avraham Eisenberg will be sentenced to 123 months in prison before 2030? From the [Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/banking-and-finance/ar...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 4.62 on December 31, 2024?
0.5
Metaculus
What is the chance that the US Senate will confirm 64.9 federal judges in the following years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:* * [How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/) * [How many federal judges will the US S...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that the oldest living person will be 120 years old in 2100? [Life expectancy has doubled since 1900](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL). This rising average masks great individual variation. As of early 2023 the oldest living person is [Maria Branyas](ht...
0.25
Metaculus
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030? Keyword: 123 Percentage: 75% Reframed Question: What is the chance that Avraham Eisenberg will be sentenced to 123 months in prison before 2030? From the [Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/banking-and-finance/ar...
0.75
Metaculus
What is the chance that GPT-4 will have 1.62k parameters if it is announced before 2025? *Related Question on Metaculus:* * [How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of...
0.25
Metaculus