text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
What is the chance that 1.01k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.01k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.37k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in Geosciences, atmospheric, and ocean sciences? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.07k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in microbiology and immunology? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 543 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in public health? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.01k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 543 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in public health? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 368 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in genetics and genomics? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 543 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in public health? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 317 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in the field of philosophy? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 317 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in the field of philosophy? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 368 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in genetics and genomics? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 368 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in genetics and genomics? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 361 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in pharmacology and toxicology? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 361 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in pharmacology and toxicology? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.56k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.56k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 50% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US will have a driver's license by 2047? It might be the case that new technologies such as driverless cars and ride-sharing apps could make it so that someday only a small share of people have driver's licenses, and given that driver's licenses are oft... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 361 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in pharmacology and toxicology? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.56k doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 317 doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031, specifically in the field of philosophy? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74% in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74 in the following years? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 50% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US will have a driver's license by 2047? It might be the case that new technologies such as driverless cars and ride-sharing apps could make it so that someday only a small share of people have driver's licenses, and given that driver's licenses are oft... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that less than 50% of 20 to 24 year olds in the US will have a driver's license by 2047? It might be the case that new technologies such as driverless cars and ride-sharing apps could make it so that someday only a small share of people have driver's licenses, and given that driver's licenses are oft... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74 in the following years? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74 in the following years? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.81 in the year 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74% in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 3.74% in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 325.3 in the following months? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 325.3 in the following months? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.87% in the year 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.87% in the year 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.44% in the year 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 325.3 in the following months? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 281 in the year 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 291% in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 291% in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.81 in the year 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.44% in the year 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 281 in the year 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.81 in the year 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 2.44% in the year 2027? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334 in the year 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 282 in the year 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 4.87% in the year 2026? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 282 in the year 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 327 in the year 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 282 in the year 2025? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 327 in the year 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334 in the year 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 291% in the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 281 in the year 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334 in the year 2027? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.1 months in prison before 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2057? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/)
* [When... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2057? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/)
* [When... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 75% change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fusion reactor will reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones by 2057? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/)
* [When... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 75% change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global market for perovskite solar cells will be 144 million dollars in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 327 in the year 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global market for perovskite solar cells will be 144 million dollars in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.1 months in prison before 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to 305.1 months in prison before 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.555% on the following dates? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.555% on the following dates? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 75% change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.555% on the following dates? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.33 on September 30, 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.33 on September 30, 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.510 on June 30, 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 4.62 on December 31, 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first fully automated McDonald's will open in the United States by 2034? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first fully automated McDonald's will open in the United States by 2034? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 4.62 on December 31, 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.33 on September 30, 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the global market for perovskite solar cells will be 144 million dollars in 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that England will win a FIFA men's or women's world cup by 2029? The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) and [FIFA Women's World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Women%27s_World_Cup) are international association football tournaments held in intervals of 4 years.
Th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that England will win a FIFA men's or women's world cup by 2029? The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) and [FIFA Women's World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Women%27s_World_Cup) are international association football tournaments held in intervals of 4 years.
Th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first fully automated McDonald's will open in the United States by 2034? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that England will win a FIFA men's or women's world cup by 2029? The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) and [FIFA Women's World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Women%27s_World_Cup) are international association football tournaments held in intervals of 4 years.
Th... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will first put a person in space by 2057? [North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea), officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a country in East Asia. According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will first put a person in space by 2057? [North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea), officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a country in East Asia. According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that North Korea will first put a person in space by 2057? [North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea), officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a country in East Asia. According to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an "independent socialist state... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.510 on June 30, 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 5.510 on June 30, 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?
Keyword: 123
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Avraham Eisenberg will be sentenced to 123 months in prison before 2030? From the [Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/banking-and-finance/ar... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the upper limit of the federal funds target range will be 4.62 on December 31, 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US Senate will confirm 64.9 federal judges in the following years? *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/)
* [How many federal judges will the US S... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the oldest living person will be 120 years old in 2100? [Life expectancy has doubled since 1900](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL). This rising average masks great individual variation. As of early 2023 the oldest living person is [Maria Branyas](ht... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many months in prison will Avraham Eisenberg be sentenced to before 2030?
Keyword: 123
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that Avraham Eisenberg will be sentenced to 123 months in prison before 2030? From the [Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/banking-and-finance/ar... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that GPT-4 will have 1.62k parameters if it is announced before 2025? *Related Question on Metaculus:*
* [How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
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