text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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What will be the chance that 12.30 proportion of orbital launches in 2030 will be for the following launcher categories: (Super heavy-lift)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or other rocket stage will have a maximum of 9.01 on-Earth reuses in the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories will be 10.9? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years (2025) will be 17.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or other rocket stage will have a maximum of 9.01 on-Earth reuses in the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or rocket stage will have a maximum of 17.0 on-Earth reuses by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years (2025) will be 17.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or rocket stage will have a maximum of 17.0 on-Earth reuses by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or rocket stage will have a maximum of 112 on-Earth reuses in the next 10 years (2035)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or rocket stage will have a maximum of 112 on-Earth reuses in the next 10 years (2035)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years (2025) will be 89.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years will be 89.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years (2025) will be 89.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years (2025) will be 17.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years will be 89.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or rocket stage will have a maximum of 112 on-Earth reuses in the next 10 years (2035)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a successfully reused launch vehicle will have a payload capacity of 110 tons by 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years will be 89.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years (2030) will be 85.7? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a successfully reused launch vehicle will have a payload capacity of 110 tons by 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a successfully reused launch vehicle will have a payload capacity of 110 tons by 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years (2030) will be 85.7? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years (2030) will be 85.7? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a single booster or rocket stage will have a maximum of 17.0 on-Earth reuses by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years (2025) will be 89.9? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 512 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 512 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 512 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years (2030)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 512 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years (2030)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 512 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years (2030)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 465 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years (2035)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 6.13k operational satellites in each year? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 465 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years (2035)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 8.21k operational satellites in each year by 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 6.13k operational satellites in each year? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 512 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 8.21k operational satellites in each year by 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 15.6k operational satellites in the year 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated chance of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030, resulting in 1.30k events? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated chance of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030, resulting in 1.30k events? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the estimated chance of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030, resulting in 1.30k events? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 6.13k operational satellites in each year? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 8.21k operational satellites in each year by 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 15.6k operational satellites in the year 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 15.6k operational satellites in the year 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 32.4k operational satellites in the year 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 465 successful orbital rocket launches in the following years (2035)? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 32.4k operational satellites in the year 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 32.4k operational satellites in the year 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.39k satellites will be launched in each of the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.16k satellites will be launched in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.39k satellites will be launched in each of the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.16k satellites will be launched in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.36k satellites will be launched in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.36k satellites will be launched in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 3.39k satellites will be launched in each of the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.88k satellites will be launched in 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 6.36k satellites will be launched in 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 3.24 ASAT tests will occur by 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025, given a 50% chance of occurrence? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 3.24 ASAT tests will occur by 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 4.16k satellites will be launched in the year 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.88k satellites will be launched in 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 11.9 space exploration activities before 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025, given a 50% chance of occurrence? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 3.24 ASAT tests will occur by 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 8.88k satellites will be launched in 2035? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 5.81 of the following space exploration activities before 2030? (Lunar exploration) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will occur for the following destinations by Dec 2033? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025, given a 50% chance of occurrence? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 11.9 space exploration activities before 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 11.9 space exploration activities before 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 36.2 space exploration activities before 2030, specifically crewed spaceflight? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 36.2 space exploration activities before 2030, specifically crewed spaceflight? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood of successful sample return missions occurring for the following destinations by Dec 2033? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 5.81 of the following space exploration activities before 2030? (Lunar exploration) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 16.8 space station visits before 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 16.8 space station visits before 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will occur for the following destinations by Dec 2033? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 36.2 space exploration activities before 2030, specifically crewed spaceflight? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will occur for the following destinations by Dec 2033? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood of successful sample return missions occurring for the following destinations by Dec 2033? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood of successful sample return missions occurring for the following destinations by Dec 2033? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 5.81 of the following space exploration activities before 2030? (Lunar exploration) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will not occur for Venus before January 2036? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will not occur for Venus before January 2036? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will not occur for the following destinations (Outer planets) before January 1, 2036? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 22.1 for each of the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 22.1 for each of the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 22.1 for each of the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will conduct 16.8 space station visits before 2030? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will not occur for Venus before January 2036? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will not occur for the following destinations (Outer planets) before January 1, 2036? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 12.2 for each of the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that successful sample return missions will not occur for the following destinations (Outer planets) before January 1, 2036? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 41.0 for each of the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 12.2 for each of the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 12.2 for each of the following years? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 41.0 for each of the following years? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the maximum number of people in space simultaneously will be 158 for each of the following years? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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