text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|
What is the chance that the US life expectancy at birth will exceed 78.8 by 2040? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hold 75% of 367.4M barrels of crude oil on the following dates? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will have a 37.4% share of high impact AI publications in 2027? [China has been at the forefront of AI research](https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/quantumblack/our-insights/the-next-frontier-for-ai-in-china-could-add-600-billion-to-its-economy) and has significant potential for c... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average NAEP long-term trend mathematics score for 9-year old students will be 241.3 in 2029? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 39.6k in 2025? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improved. N... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 45.5k in each year? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improv... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 45.5k in each year? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improv... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 39.6k in 2025? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improved. N... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 39.6k in 2025? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improved. N... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 45.5k in each year? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improv... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 47.8k space debris orbiting Earth in 2030? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improved. Note t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Andrew Tate will be sentenced to 66.5 months in prison before 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 47.8k space debris orbiting Earth in 2030? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improved. Note t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 68.6k in 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 68.6k in 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of ETH will be 10.0k USD on December 31, 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total quantity of space debris orbiting Earth will be 68.6k in 2035? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Andrew Tate will be sentenced to 66.5 months in prison before 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of ETH will be 10.0k USD on December 31, 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Andrew Tate will be sentenced to 66.5 months in prison before 2026? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the probability that the US government will assign a credence of 9.71×10−3 to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025? A recent [blog post](https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/02/05/us-takes-action-to-avert-human-existential-catastrophe-the-global-catastrophic-risk-management-act-2022/) from... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will announce GPT-5 by Jul 2024? On 14 March 2023, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/) announced their latest model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) family, GPT-4. In the [product announcement post for GPT-4](https://openai.com/product/gpt-4), OpenAI wrote:
> Following the r... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will not make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users by January 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the price of ETH will be 10.0k USD on December 31, 2027? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will not make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users by January 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a humanoid robot will be created by 2035 that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will announce GPT-5 by Jul 2024? On 14 March 2023, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/) announced their latest model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) family, GPT-4. In the [product announcement post for GPT-4](https://openai.com/product/gpt-4), OpenAI wrote:
> Following the r... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total supply of Ether on the Ethereum blockchain will be 75% of 118.9M on Dec 15, 2029 at 11:59pm? [Ethereum](https://ethereum.org/en/) is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform that enables the creation and execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). The p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a humanoid robot will be created by 2035 that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Chinese entity will develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU by Jun 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that a Chinese organization will train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16 by October 2024? During the Autumn of 2022, the Biden administration introduced comprehensive export controls targeting China's AI efforts. The restrictions cover high-end GPUs, electronic design ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that a Chinese organization will train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16 by October 2024? During the Autumn of 2022, the Biden administration introduced comprehensive export controls targeting China's AI efforts. The restrictions cover high-end GPUs, electronic design ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what is the chance that 35.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the energy transition metal index see the **parent question**: [What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal i... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what is the chance that 45.8% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the energy transition metal index see the **parent question**: [What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what is the chance that 35.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the energy transition metal index see the **parent question**: [What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal i... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 47.8k space debris orbiting Earth in 2030? *This question replaces a [previous version of the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13744/total-quantity-of-space-debris-by-year/) which was resolved as* ***Ambiguous*** *so that the ranges could be improved. Note t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total supply of Ether on the Ethereum blockchain will be 75% of 118.9M on Dec 15, 2029 at 11:59pm? [Ethereum](https://ethereum.org/en/) is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform that enables the creation and execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). The p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what is the chance that 35.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the energy transition metal index see the **parent question**: [What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal i... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will announce GPT-5 by Jul 2024? On 14 March 2023, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/) announced their latest model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) family, GPT-4. In the [product announcement post for GPT-4](https://openai.com/product/gpt-4), OpenAI wrote:
> Following the r... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Chinese entity will develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU by Jun 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a humanoid robot will be created by 2035 that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a Chinese entity will develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU by Jun 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 39.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given a change in the transition metal index? For background on the energy transition metal index see the **parent question**: [What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that OpenAI will not make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users by January 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 34.5% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (≤ 185k) For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the probability that the US government will assign a credence of 9.71×10−3 to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025? A recent [blog post](https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/02/05/us-takes-action-to-avert-human-existential-catastrophe-the-global-catastrophic-risk-management-act-2022/) from... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 37.4% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public charging s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 39.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given a change in the transition metal index? For background on the energy transition metal index see the **parent question**: [What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for th... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 37.4% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public charging s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the probability that the US government will assign a credence of 9.71×10−3 to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025? A recent [blog post](https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/02/05/us-takes-action-to-avert-human-existential-catastrophe-the-global-catastrophic-risk-management-act-2022/) from... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 63.0% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (> 185k) For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what is the chance that 45.8% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the energy transition metal index see the **parent question**: [What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal i... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 63.0% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (> 185k) For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total supply of Ether on the Ethereum blockchain will be 75% of 118.9M on Dec 15, 2029 at 11:59pm? [Ethereum](https://ethereum.org/en/) is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform that enables the creation and execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). The p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that a Chinese organization will train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16 by October 2024? During the Autumn of 2022, the Biden administration introduced comprehensive export controls targeting China's AI efforts. The restrictions cover high-end GPUs, electronic design ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 63.0% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (> 185k) For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public c... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 20.0% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per ga... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 20.0% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per ga... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 37.4% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public charging s... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 20.0% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per ga... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 75% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles if gas prices are ≤ $3.30? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average retail gasoline p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 61.2% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles if gas prices are greater than $3.30? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average reta... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 75% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles if gas prices are ≤ $3.30? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average retail gasoline p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 75% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles if gas prices are ≤ $3.30? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average retail gasoline p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on EV median range, what is the chance that 27.9% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on EV median range see the **parent question**: [What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand do... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on EV median range, what is the chance that 50.8% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on EV median range see the **parent question**: [What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand do... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on EV median range, what is the chance that 27.9% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on EV median range see the **parent question**: [What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand do... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on EV median range, what is the chance that 13.9% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (≤ 325) For background on EV median range see the **parent question**: [What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 tho... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on EV median range, what is the chance that 27.9% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on EV median range see the **parent question**: [What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand do... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 61.2% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles if gas prices are greater than $3.30? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average reta... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on gas prices, what is the chance that 61.2% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles if gas prices are greater than $3.30? For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [What will be the annual average reta... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on EV median range, what is the chance that 50.8% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? For background on EV median range see the **parent question**: [What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand do... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 58.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given the number of states adopting ZEV mandates? For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at l... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 58.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given the number of states adopting ZEV mandates? For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at l... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on EV median range, what is the chance that 13.9% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (≤ 325) For background on EV median range see the **parent question**: [What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 tho... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.44 share of lithium consumption in the United States in 2030 will be met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [Projections of increasing demand](https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary) for lithium have... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 52.0 percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given the number of states adopting ZEV mandates? For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rules that a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 52.0 percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given the number of states adopting ZEV mandates? For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rules that a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 14.5 US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025? [According to Plug In America](https://pluginamerica.org/policy/right-to-charge-policies-for-electric-vehicles/)
>Homeowners in apartments, condominiums, and even single-family houses in developments are sometimes restrict... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 17.4 number of US states will have building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025? A report from the [International Code Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Building_Code) (ICC) titled [Electric Vehicles and Building Codes: A Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 17.4 number of US states will have building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025? A report from the [International Code Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Building_Code) (ICC) titled [Electric Vehicles and Building Codes: A Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what is the chance that 34.9% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (≤ 14) For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rul... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 14.5 US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025? [According to Plug In America](https://pluginamerica.org/policy/right-to-charge-policies-for-electric-vehicles/)
>Homeowners in apartments, condominiums, and even single-family houses in developments are sometimes restrict... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that China will process 59.6% of lithium in 2030? The demand for [lithium-ion batteries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery) is projected to grow substantially as electric cars [gain in popularity](https:... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 14.5 US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025? [According to Plug In America](https://pluginamerica.org/policy/right-to-charge-policies-for-electric-vehicles/)
>Homeowners in apartments, condominiums, and even single-family houses in developments are sometimes restrict... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that China will process 59.6% of lithium in 2030? The demand for [lithium-ion batteries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery) is projected to grow substantially as electric cars [gain in popularity](https:... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 58.6% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given the number of states adopting ZEV mandates? For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at l... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Reframed Question: What is the chance that China will process 59.6% of lithium in 2030? The demand for [lithium-ion batteries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery) is projected to grow substantially as electric cars [gain in popularity](https:... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 34.5% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (≤ 185k) For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 17.4 number of US states will have building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025? A report from the [International Code Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Building_Code) (ICC) titled [Electric Vehicles and Building Codes: A Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductio... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what is the chance that 34.5% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (≤ 185k) For background on the number of level 2 or greater public charging stations see the **parent question**: [How many level 2 or greater public c... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.44 share of lithium consumption in the United States in 2030 will be met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [Projections of increasing demand](https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary) for lithium have... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what is the chance that 38.5% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be ZEVs? For background on the US sourcing requirements see the **parent question**: [Will the US eliminate or delay the critical mineral and battery component requirement f... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 1.44 share of lithium consumption in the United States in 2030 will be met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [Projections of increasing demand](https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary) for lithium have... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what is the chance that 38.5% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be ZEVs? For background on the US sourcing requirements see the **parent question**: [Will the US eliminate or delay the critical mineral and battery component requirement f... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 52.0 percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles, given the number of states adopting ZEV mandates? For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rules that a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what is the chance that 38.5% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be ZEVs? For background on the US sourcing requirements see the **parent question**: [Will the US eliminate or delay the critical mineral and battery component requirement f... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what is the chance that 34.9% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be zero-emission vehicles? (≤ 14) For background on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates see the **parent question**: [How many states will have legally enforceable rul... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what is the chance that 25.8% of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 will be ZEVs? (Not eliminated) For background on the US sourcing requirements see the **parent question**: [Will the US eliminate or delay the critical mineral and battery compon... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what is the chance that the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 will be 75% higher than the index for December 2020? For background on NEPA reform see the **parent question**: [Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before Januar... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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