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What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, including the Hodge conjecture, will be solved by 2067? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, specifically the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, will be solved by 2064? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Cla... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems will be solved by 2041? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clay_Mathem... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the disbursement of $1.8 billion in grants for charging infrastructure before 2027, what is the chance that there will be 272k public charging stations in 2027? Over the past two and a half years, Congress authorized over $1 trillion in new resources to catalyze the US climate response and clean energy t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the disbursement of $1.8 billion in grants for charging infrastructure before 2027, what is the chance that there will be 95.7k public charging stations in 2027? (< $1.8B) Over the past two and a half years, Congress authorized over $1 trillion in new resources to catalyze the US climate response and cle... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 341,000 public charging stations in 2027, given the disbursement of $1.8 billion in grants for charging infrastructure before 2027? (≥ $1.8B) Over the past two and a half years, Congress authorized over $1 trillion in new resources to catalyze the US climate response and clean ener... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Conditional on the disbursement of $1.8 billion in grants for charging infrastructure before 2027, what is the chance that there will be 95.7k public charging stations in 2027? (< $1.8B) Over the past two and a half years, Congress authorized over $1 trillion in new resources to catalyze the US climate response and cle... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, specifically the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, will be solved by 2064? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Cla... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems (P versus NP) will be solved by 2095? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, specifically the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, will be solved by 2064? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Cla... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems (P versus NP) will be solved by 2095? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems (P versus NP) will be solved by 2095? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, including the Riemann Hypothesis, will be solved by 2094? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https:... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have an AI president by 2274? The concept of an AI head of state frequently appears in science fiction. So far, this has not occurred in any country. With advances in artificial intelligence, [some have speculated](https://futurism.com/could-an-ai-ever-be-elected-president... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have an AI president by 2274? The concept of an AI head of state frequently appears in science fiction. So far, this has not occurred in any country. With advances in artificial intelligence, [some have speculated](https://futurism.com/could-an-ai-ever-be-elected-president... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United States will have an AI president by 2274? The concept of an AI head of state frequently appears in science fiction. So far, this has not occurred in any country. With advances in artificial intelligence, [some have speculated](https://futurism.com/could-an-ai-ever-be-elected-president... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, including the Riemann Hypothesis, will be solved by 2094? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https:... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, including Yang–Mills existence and mass gap, will be solved by 2084? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Instit... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, including Yang–Mills existence and mass gap, will be solved by 2084? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Instit... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, including the Riemann Hypothesis, will be solved by 2094? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Institute](https:... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI will be 3.44 in the following years? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#individual-chapters) (ch. 4, “Private investment in AI by geographic area, 2013–21”), the United States led the world in private i... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI will be 3.44 in the following years? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#individual-chapters) (ch. 4, “Private investment in AI by geographic area, 2013–21”), the United States led the world in private i... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the remaining six Millennium Prize problems, including Yang–Mills existence and mass gap, will be solved by 2084? The [Millennium Prize problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are some of the hardest and most famous problems in mathematics. The [Clay Mathematics Instit... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI will be 3.01 in the following years (2026)? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#individual-chapters) (ch. 4, “Private investment in AI by geographic area, 2013–21”), the United States led the world in pr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2024)? (3.17)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2024) will be 3.17? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI will be 3.44 in the following years? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#individual-chapters) (ch. 4, “Private investment in AI by geographic area, 2013–21”), the United States led the world in private i... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI will be 3.01 in the following years (2026)? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#individual-chapters) (ch. 4, “Private investment in AI by geographic area, 2013–21”), the United States led the world in pr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2024)? (3.17)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2024) will be 3.17? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI will be 3.01 in the following years (2026)? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#individual-chapters) (ch. 4, “Private investment in AI by geographic area, 2013–21”), the United States led the world in pr... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2030)? (2.56)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2030) will be 2.56? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2024)? (3.17)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2024) will be 3.17? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a free and public AI will be able to write working programs of 50k or more lines of code by Sep 2026? The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has been growing at an impressive rate in recent years, and its impact on different industries and fields is becoming increasingly significant. On... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that anthropogenic methane emissions will be 9.14% higher in 2050 compared to current levels? Anthropogenic methane is methane that is directly emitted into the atmosphere due to human activities. Methane (CH4) is a [potent greenhouse gas](https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/methane-e... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that anthropogenic methane emissions will be 9.14% higher in 2050 compared to current levels? Anthropogenic methane is methane that is directly emitted into the atmosphere due to human activities. Methane (CH4) is a [potent greenhouse gas](https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/methane-e... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a runner will break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon by Jun 2029? In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge became the only person to successfully [run a marathon distance in less than 2 hours](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge) under *non-competitive conditions*. He was assisted by 41 p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that anthropogenic methane emissions will be 9.14% higher in 2050 compared to current levels? Anthropogenic methane is methane that is directly emitted into the atmosphere due to human activities. Methane (CH4) is a [potent greenhouse gas](https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/oil-gas-and-coal/methane-e... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2030)? (2.56)
Reframed Question: What is the chance that the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years (2030) will be 2.56? According to the [latest AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/#in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334.9 in the following months (Feb-24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a reliable and general household robot will be developed by 2034? The development of general-purpose robots capable of performing household chores has been a long-standing goal in the field of robotics. Such a robot would need to be versatile, adaptable, and capable of handling a wide range of t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) will be 2.48% in the United States in the following quarters (2025 Q1)? The US [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Economic_Analysis) (BEA) provides quarterly estimates of [gross domestic product](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a reliable and general household robot will be developed by 2034? The development of general-purpose robots capable of performing household chores has been a long-standing goal in the field of robotics. Such a robot would need to be versatile, adaptable, and capable of handling a wide range of t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a reliable and general household robot will be developed by 2034? The development of general-purpose robots capable of performing household chores has been a long-standing goal in the field of robotics. Such a robot would need to be versatile, adaptable, and capable of handling a wide range of t... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a runner will break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon by Jun 2029? In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge became the only person to successfully [run a marathon distance in less than 2 hours](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge) under *non-competitive conditions*. He was assisted by 41 p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334.9 in the following months (Feb-24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a runner will break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon by Jun 2029? In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge became the only person to successfully [run a marathon distance in less than 2 hours](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge) under *non-competitive conditions*. He was assisted by 41 p... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a free and public AI will be able to write working programs of 50k or more lines of code by Sep 2026? The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has been growing at an impressive rate in recent years, and its impact on different industries and fields is becoming increasingly significant. On... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a free and public AI will be able to write working programs of 50k or more lines of code by Sep 2026? The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has been growing at an impressive rate in recent years, and its impact on different industries and fields is becoming increasingly significant. On... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index will be 334.9 in the following months (Feb-24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) will be 2.48% in the United States in the following quarters (2025 Q1)? The US [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Economic_Analysis) (BEA) provides quarterly estimates of [gross domestic product](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Starlink will be spun out from SpaceX by Oct 2028? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) will be 2.48% in the United States in the following quarters (2025 Q1)? The US [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Economic_Analysis) (BEA) provides quarterly estimates of [gross domestic product](https... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Starlink will be spun out from SpaceX by Oct 2028? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest number of annual births in Japan through the year 2100 will be 730k? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.66M software developers in the US in the following years? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown exte... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest number of annual births in Japan through the year 2100 will be 730k? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years? (2024)
What is the chance that there will be 1.66M software developers in the US by 2024? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to th... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years? (2024)
What is the chance that there will be 1.66M software developers in the US by 2024? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to th... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.66M software developers in the US in the following years? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown exte... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.00M software developers in the US by 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.00M software developers in the US by 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.00M software developers in the US by 2026? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the advent ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.00M software developers in the US by 2028? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.00M software developers in the US by 2026? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the advent ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the lowest number of annual births in Japan through the year 2100 will be 730k? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.00M software developers in the US by 2026? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the advent ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.34M software developers in the US by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.66M software developers in the US in the following years? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown exte... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.34M software developers in the US by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.58 million software developers in the US by 2035? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Starlink will be spun out from SpaceX by Oct 2028? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.46M software developers in the US by 2032? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the advent ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.58 million software developers in the US by 2035? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.46M software developers in the US by 2032? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the advent ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.34M software developers in the US by 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 2.58 million software developers in the US by 2035? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to the changing number of software developers including, to an unknown extent, the ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.39M software developers in the US by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years? (2024)
What is the chance that there will be 1.66M software developers in the US by 2024? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the number of software developers in the US will change over time. Many factors will contribute to th... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.39M software developers in the US by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 1.39M software developers in the US by 2040? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be $152,000 in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be $152,000 in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be $152,000 in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 159k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 139k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 139k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 159k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 139k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 145k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 174k in the year 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 145k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 174k in the year 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 174k in the year 2030? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 159k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be 145k in the following years using May 2023 dollars? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be $163,000 in 2032 using May 2023 dollars? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the wages of software developers in the US will change over time, controlled for inflation using May 2023 dollar... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be $163,000 in 2032 using May 2023 dollars? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the wages of software developers in the US will change over time, controlled for inflation using May 2023 dollar... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Miegakure will not be released before January 2030? [Miegakure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miegakure) is a puzzle-platform video game by Marc ten Bosch set in a world with four spatial dimensions. While it has not yet been released, early versions of the game have won or been nominated for [n... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in 2040 will be 75% higher than May 2023 dollars? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States will be $163,000 in 2032 using May 2023 dollars? This question aims to quantify the extent to which the wages of software developers in the US will change over time, controlled for inflation using May 2023 dollar... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Miegakure will not be released before January 2030? [Miegakure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miegakure) is a puzzle-platform video game by Marc ten Bosch set in a world with four spatial dimensions. While it has not yet been released, early versions of the game have won or been nominated for [n... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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