text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
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What is the probability that Amazon will deliver some products by drone by May 2025? [Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by ma... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 25.9k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
[Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average S&P 500 return in the 2020s will be 9.40? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),
> The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average S&P 500 return in the 2020s will be 9.40? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),
> The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that KARI will launch a crewed mission by 2035? For the majority of time humans have been exploring space, there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Federation inherited the Soviet space program,... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that KARI will launch a crewed mission by 2035? For the majority of time humans have been exploring space, there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Federation inherited the Soviet space program,... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 25.9k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
[Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a total of 25.9k fatalities from terrorism in the world by 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-of-terrorism" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
[Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism) notes t... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average S&P 500 return in the 2020s will be 9.40? From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),
> The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?
Keyword: 8.74
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 8.74 Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel by 2027? In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that KARI will launch a crewed mission by 2035? For the majority of time humans have been exploring space, there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Federation inherited the Soviet space program,... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total population will be 1.398B in 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/UN-population-projection-medium-variant?country=~CHN" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's total... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total population will be 1.398B in 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/UN-population-projection-medium-variant?country=~CHN" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's total... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?
Keyword: 8.74
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that 8.74 Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel by 2027? In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolu... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China's total population will be 1.398B in 2025? <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/UN-population-projection-medium-variant?country=~CHN" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's total... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, what is the chance that there will be over 1,000 detonations by then? | 0.11 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2030? | 0.22 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2030? | 0.22 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, what is the chance that there will be over 100 detonations by then? | 0.39 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Conservative party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? | 0.66 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be at least one fatality in North Korea? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be atleast one fatality in India? | 0.15 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, what is the chance that Pakistan will have at least one fatality? | 0.33 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be at least one fatality in China? | 0.13 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that INC will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? | 0.03 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be at least one fatality in Israel? | 0.1 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be atleast one fatality in US, UK, or France? | 0.15 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be atleast one fatality in Russia? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kamala Harris will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | 0.95 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Donald Trump will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Mike Pence will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that life will be first discovered on Mars in the solar system before 2050? | 0.4 | Metaculus |
Before 2032, will Type III pan-coronavirus vaccine candidates be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada? | 0.7 | Metaculus |
Before 2032, will Type II pan-coronavirus vaccine candidates be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada? | 0.67 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2030? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that Europa will be the first location to discover life? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the US will enter a recession before 2024? | 0.2 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that it will be first discovered on Mercury? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that it will be first discovered on Earth's Moon? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that Titan will be the first location where it is discovered? | 0.07 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that Enceladus will be the first location where it is discovered? | 0.12 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that Ganymede will be the first location where it is discovered? | 0.03 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Orthomyxoviridae will cause the next pandemic? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that Venus will be the first location where it is discovered? | 0.03 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that it will be first discovered on Ceres? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, what is the chance that Europa will be the first location to discover life? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Coronaviridae will cause the next pandemic? | 0.19 | Metaculus |
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered? (SSSB) | 0.08 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, will there be atleast one fatality in India? | 0.15 | Metaculus |
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, what is the chance that there will be over 1,000 detonations by then? | 0.11 | Metaculus |
Before 2032, will Type III pan-coronavirus vaccine candidates be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada? | 0.7 | Metaculus |
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, and what is the chance that it will be Donald Trump? | 0.99 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a new microorganism, not in the 26 known HIVF, will cause the next pandemic? | 0.1 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Orthomyxoviridae will cause the next pandemic? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.95 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Donald Trump Jr. will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Mike Pence will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ted Cruz will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.02 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Pete Buttigieg will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Michelle Obama will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Stacy Abrams will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Ron DeSantis will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gavin Newsom will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that J. B. Pritzker will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Gavin Newsom will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Michelle Obama will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Nikki Haley will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected to be US President in 2024? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that K. Starmer will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.9 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Keir Starmer will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? | 0.19 | Metaculus |
Who is the favorite candidate to win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Keir Starmer) | 0.19 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that J. Hunt will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.05 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that L. Truss (Tories) will form the first government after the next UK election? | 0.01 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that N. Zahawi (Tories) will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.02 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that T. Tugendhat (Tories) will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.05 | Metaculus |
Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Angela Rayner) | 0.3 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that W. Streeting will form the first government after the next UK election? | 0.54 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that A. Burham (Labour) will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.51 | Metaculus |
Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting) | 0.06 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that R. Reeves (Labour) will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.54 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that S. Javid (Tories) will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.07 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that A. Rayner (Labour) will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.47 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that R. Sunak (Tories) will form the first government after the next UK election? | 0.1 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Liberal party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? | 0.34 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that P. Mordaunt will form the first government after the next UK election? | 0.09 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that L. Nandy (Labour) will lead the first government after the next UK election? | 0.53 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Green party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? | 0 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that K. Starmer (Labour) will form the first government after the next UK election? | 0.9 | Metaculus |
Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Lisa Nandy) | 0.1 | Metaculus |
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