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What is the chance that the Identity and Democracy (ID) party will win 99.4 seats in the 2024 European parliamentary elections? *This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*
The [2024 European Parliament election](https://en.wikipedia.o... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Identity and Democracy (ID) party will win 99.4 seats in the 2024 European parliamentary elections? *This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*
The [2024 European Parliament election](https://en.wikipedia.o... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Identity and Democracy (ID) party will win 99.4 seats in the 2024 European parliamentary elections? *This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*
The [2024 European Parliament election](https://en.wikipedia.o... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States will be 6.00% in the year 2028? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first company with a market cap above $1 billion will be openly run by an AI CEO before 2100? Generative AI, like [Midjourney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midjourney#:~:text=Midjourney%20is%20a%20generative%20artificial,Stability%20AI's%20Stable%20Diffusion.) and [GPT-4](https://en.wikiped... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Vanza will be available for Cystic Fibrosis patients in England by Mar 2026? [Vanza](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/vertexs-triple-combination-cf-drug-meets-main-late-stage-trial-goals-2024-02-05/ ), a combination of vanzacaftor/tezacaftor/deutivacaftor, is a daily, ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Vanza will be available for Cystic Fibrosis patients in England by Mar 2026? [Vanza](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/vertexs-triple-combination-cf-drug-meets-main-late-stage-trial-goals-2024-02-05/ ), a combination of vanzacaftor/tezacaftor/deutivacaftor, is a daily, ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 53.0 percentage of Democrats and Republicans will vote-by-mail in 2024? According to the MIT Election Data and Science Lab publication, [How We Voted in 2022](https://electionlab.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2023-05/How-We-Voted-In-2022.pdf) The 2020 election cycle saw the biggest and most dramat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 53.0 percentage of Democrats and Republicans will vote-by-mail in 2024? According to the MIT Election Data and Science Lab publication, [How We Voted in 2022](https://electionlab.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2023-05/How-We-Voted-In-2022.pdf) The 2020 election cycle saw the biggest and most dramat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Vanza will be available for Cystic Fibrosis patients in England by Mar 2026? [Vanza](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/vertexs-triple-combination-cf-drug-meets-main-late-stage-trial-goals-2024-02-05/ ), a combination of vanzacaftor/tezacaftor/deutivacaftor, is a daily, ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that SpaceX will first successfully catch a Starship booster with the tower by Apr 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 53.0 percentage of Democrats and Republicans will vote-by-mail in 2024? According to the MIT Election Data and Science Lab publication, [How We Voted in 2022](https://electionlab.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2023-05/How-We-Voted-In-2022.pdf) The 2020 election cycle saw the biggest and most dramat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that SpaceX will first successfully catch a Starship booster with the tower by Apr 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 30.9% of Democrats and Republicans will vote-by-mail in 2024? (% Republicans Voting-by-Mail) According to the MIT Election Data and Science Lab publication, [How We Voted in 2022](https://electionlab.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2023-05/How-We-Voted-In-2022.pdf) The 2020 election cycle saw the bi... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fully-automated closed loop insulin delivery system for Type 1 diabetes will be approved by 2032? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the likelihood that SpaceX will first successfully catch a Starship booster with the tower by Apr 2025? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 25% in the following months (Oct-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [Consumer Price Index](https://... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fully-automated closed loop insulin delivery system for Type 1 diabetes will be approved by 2032? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 369k people will work in these AI-automatable jobs in the US in May 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 369k people will work in these AI-automatable jobs in the US in May 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 25% in the following months (Oct-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [Consumer Price Index](https://... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 369k people will work in these AI-automatable jobs in the US in May 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 50% in the following months (Nov-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the BJP will win 288 seats in the Lok Sabha in the 2024 Indian election? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 25% in the following months (Oct-24)? The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [Consumer Price Index](https://... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 620 measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a fully-automated closed loop insulin delivery system for Type 1 diabetes will be approved by 2032? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 50% in the following months (Nov-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the BJP will win 288 seats in the Lok Sabha in the 2024 Indian election? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 50% in the following months (Nov-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 620 measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the BJP will win 288 seats in the Lok Sabha in the 2024 Indian election? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation in the United States will be 50% in the following months (Dec-24)? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 620 measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) will be 85.21 for the listed dates? Oil is a commodity of critical importance to the world economy and is used as a raw chemical in the production of energy, materials such as plastics and coatings, fertiliser and fuel for vehicles._x000D_
_x000... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) will be 85.21 for the listed dates? Oil is a commodity of critical importance to the world economy and is used as a raw chemical in the production of energy, materials such as plastics and coatings, fertiliser and fuel for vehicles._x000D_
_x000... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) will be 85.21 for the listed dates? Oil is a commodity of critical importance to the world economy and is used as a raw chemical in the production of energy, materials such as plastics and coatings, fertiliser and fuel for vehicles._x000D_
_x000... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)?
Keyword: 2046
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024) will occur by 2046? "ITER" initially stood for "international... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for May 31, '24 will be 85.6? Oil is a commodity of critical importance to the world economy and is used as a raw chemical in the production of energy, materials such as plastics and coatings, fertiliser and fuel for vehicles.
Commodity future ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Jun. 29, '24) will be 77.1? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for May 31, '24 will be 85.6? Oil is a commodity of critical importance to the world economy and is used as a raw chemical in the production of energy, materials such as plastics and coatings, fertiliser and fuel for vehicles.
Commodity future ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for May 31, '24 will be 85.6? Oil is a commodity of critical importance to the world economy and is used as a raw chemical in the production of energy, materials such as plastics and coatings, fertiliser and fuel for vehicles.
Commodity future ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Apr. 30, '24) will be 85.21? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Apr. 30, '24) will be 85.21? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Jul. 31, '24) will be 75.8? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Jul. 31, '24) will be 75.8? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Apr. 30, '24) will be 85.21? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)?
Keyword: 2046
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024) will occur by 2046? "ITER" initially stood for "international... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Jun. 29, '24) will be 77.1? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Jun. 29, '24) will be 77.1? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Jul. 31, '24) will be 75.8? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Aug. 31, '24) will be 74.1? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)?
Keyword: 2046
Percentage: 75%
Reframed Question: What is the chance that deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024) will occur by 2046? "ITER" initially stood for "international... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Aug. 31, '24) will be 74.1? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Sep. 28, '24) will be 80.8? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Aug. 31, '24) will be 74.1? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Sep. 28, '24) will be 80.8? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Sep. 28, '24) will be 80.8? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) will be 92.4 for the listed dates (Oct. 31, '24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Nov. 30, '24) will be 85.8? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Nov. 30, '24) will be 85.8? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Dec. 29, '24) will be 75.9? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) will be 92.4 for the listed dates (Oct. 31, '24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024, given that 38.7% of accounts are likely to be closed? Discussions around cheating in the chess world have intensified over the past couple of years, especially regarding online cheating. While cheating over the board is challenging and requires clever ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024, given that 38.7% of accounts are likely to be closed? Discussions around cheating in the chess world have intensified over the past couple of years, especially regarding online cheating. While cheating over the board is challenging and requires clever ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) will be 92.4 for the listed dates (Oct. 31, '24)? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Dec. 29, '24) will be 75.9? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Nov. 30, '24) will be 85.8? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates (Dec. 29, '24) will be 75.9? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average vaccination rate in US counties that report at least five measles cases in 2024 will be 91.35? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average vaccination rate in US counties that report at least five measles cases in 2024 will be 91.35? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that these parties will win 1.020 percent of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024, given that 38.7% of accounts are likely to be closed? Discussions around cheating in the chess world have intensified over the past couple of years, especially regarding online cheating. While cheating over the board is challenging and requires clever ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average vaccination rate in US counties that report at least five measles cases in 2024 will be 91.35? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that these parties will win 1.020 percent of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the GPQA benchmark will be 77.3 before 2025? From [GPQA, Rein et al,](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022)
> We present GPQA, a challenging dataset of 448 multiple-choice questions written by domain experts in biology, physics, and chemistry. We ensure that the questions are high-... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the GPQA benchmark will be 77.3 before 2025? From [GPQA, Rein et al,](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022)
> We present GPQA, a challenging dataset of 448 multiple-choice questions written by domain experts in biology, physics, and chemistry. We ensure that the questions are high-... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the InterCode (Bash) benchmark will be 55.1 before 2025? See [InterCode](https://intercode-benchmark.github.io).
> InterCode is a benchmark for evaluating language models on the interactive coding task. Given a natural language request, an agent is asked to interact with a sof... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the GPQA benchmark will be 77.3 before 2025? From [GPQA, Rein et al,](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022)
> We present GPQA, a challenging dataset of 448 multiple-choice questions written by domain experts in biology, physics, and chemistry. We ensure that the questions are high-... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark will be 32.0 before 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the InterCode (Bash) benchmark will be 55.1 before 2025? See [InterCode](https://intercode-benchmark.github.io).
> InterCode is a benchmark for evaluating language models on the interactive coding task. Given a natural language request, an agent is asked to interact with a sof... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the WebArena benchmark will be 47.5 before 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark will be 32.0 before 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the InterCode (Bash) benchmark will be 55.1 before 2025? See [InterCode](https://intercode-benchmark.github.io).
> InterCode is a benchmark for evaluating language models on the interactive coding task. Given a natural language request, an agent is asked to interact with a sof... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the GAIA benchmark will be 58.8 before 2025? See [GAIA](https://huggingface.co/spaces/gaia-benchmark/leaderboard),
>GAIA is a benchmark which aims at evaluating next-generation LLMs (LLMs with augmented capabilities due to added tooling, efficient prompting, access to search, ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the WebArena benchmark will be 47.5 before 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the GAIA benchmark will be 58.8 before 2025? See [GAIA](https://huggingface.co/spaces/gaia-benchmark/leaderboard),
>GAIA is a benchmark which aims at evaluating next-generation LLMs (LLMs with augmented capabilities due to added tooling, efficient prompting, access to search, ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark will be 32.0 before 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the WebArena benchmark will be 47.5 before 2025? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined) will be 267.5 hours? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the best score on the GAIA benchmark will be 58.8 before 2025? See [GAIA](https://huggingface.co/spaces/gaia-benchmark/leaderboard),
>GAIA is a benchmark which aims at evaluating next-generation LLMs (LLMs with augmented capabilities due to added tooling, efficient prompting, access to search, ... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined) will be 267.5 hours? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the national kindergarten measles vaccination rate in the US will be 93.33% for the 2029-2030 school year? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined) will be 267.5 hours? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the national kindergarten measles vaccination rate in the US will be 93.33% for the 2029-2030 school year? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030 will be 216? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
Before 2026, what is the chance that 23.8 US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/states-are-racing-ahead-of-congress).
As o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030 will be 216? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030 will be 216? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the national kindergarten measles vaccination rate in the US will be 93.33% for the 2029-2030 school year? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
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