text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Before 2026, what is the chance that 23.8 US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/states-are-racing-ahead-of-congress).
As o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
On January 1, 2026, what is the chance that Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service will be available to the general public in 1.67 US states? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.or... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
On January 1, 2026, what is the chance that Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service will be available to the general public in 1.67 US states? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.or... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 75% increase in the number of U.S. law school graduates securing full-time, long-term positions that require passing the bar exam, compared to the class of 2022? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
Before 2026, what is the chance that 23.8 US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/states-are-racing-ahead-of-congress).
As o... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
On January 1, 2026, what is the chance that Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service will be available to the general public in 1.67 US states? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.or... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 75% increase in the number of U.S. law school graduates securing full-time, long-term positions that require passing the bar exam, compared to the class of 2022? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 75% increase in the number of U.S. law school graduates securing full-time, long-term positions that require passing the bar exam, compared to the class of 2022? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that GPT-5 will be available to the general public by Jan 2025? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
GPT-5, the highly anticipated next generation of OpenAI's powerful language model, is rumored to be released sometime in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that GPT-5 will be available to the general public by Jan 2025? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
GPT-5, the highly anticipated next generation of OpenAI's powerful language model, is rumored to be released sometime in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 61.5 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 53.1 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/)._x000D_
_x000D_
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](http... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 53.1 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/)._x000D_
_x000D_
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](http... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 53.1 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/)._x000D_
_x000D_
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](http... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 61.5 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 19.8% increase in the number of U.S. law school graduates securing full-time, long-term positions that require passing the bar exam, compared to the class of 2022? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be a 19.8% increase in the number of U.S. law school graduates securing full-time, long-term positions that require passing the bar exam, compared to the class of 2022? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that GPT-5 will be available to the general public by Jan 2025? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
GPT-5, the highly anticipated next generation of OpenAI's powerful language model, is rumored to be released sometime in... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 65.3 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 65.3 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 65.3 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 82.3 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 82.3 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 61.5 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 67.4 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 1.02 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 sea... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 67.4 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 1.02 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 sea... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 67.4 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Greens will win 2.27 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 sea... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark will be 82.3 in the following years? This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/).
Released in late 2023, the [Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://paperswith... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Greens will win 2.27 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 sea... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia will be 5.52% for the following months? After bottoming out at 3.5% and remaining stable for several months, Australia's unemployment rate has started experiencing significant fluctuations. The Janurary 2024 unemployment rate was reported as... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia will be 5.52% for the following months? After bottoming out at 3.5% and remaining stable for several months, Australia's unemployment rate has started experiencing significant fluctuations. The Janurary 2024 unemployment rate was reported as... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 1.02 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 sea... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the Greens will win 2.27 seats in the next UK general election? There are 650 seats in the UK's House of Commons. In the [2019 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election):
<ul><li>The Conservative Party won 365 seats</li>
<li>The Labour Party won 202 sea... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Python will still be the most popular programming language at the end of 2030 with an 84.9% chance? There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applicat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia will be 5.52% for the following months (April 2024)? After bottoming out at 3.5% and remaining stable for several months, Australia's unemployment rate has started experiencing significant fluctuations. The Janurary 2024 unemployment rate wa... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Python will still be the most popular programming language at the end of 2030 with an 84.9% chance? There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applicat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the DUP will win 75% of the seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia will be 5.52% for the following months? After bottoming out at 3.5% and remaining stable for several months, Australia's unemployment rate has started experiencing significant fluctuations. The Janurary 2024 unemployment rate was reported as... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the DUP will win 75% of the seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" will be 8.37 three days after it airs? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Sinn Féin will win 50% of seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Python will still be the most popular programming language at the end of 2030 with an 84.9% chance? There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applicat... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia will be 5.52% for the following months (April 2024)? After bottoming out at 3.5% and remaining stable for several months, Australia's unemployment rate has started experiencing significant fluctuations. The Janurary 2024 unemployment rate wa... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the DUP will win 75% of the seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" will be 8.37 three days after it airs? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" will be 8.37 three days after it airs? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Plaid Cymru will win 4.25 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia will be 5.52% for the following months (April 2024)? After bottoming out at 3.5% and remaining stable for several months, Australia's unemployment rate has started experiencing significant fluctuations. The Janurary 2024 unemployment rate wa... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Sinn Féin will win 50% of seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Sinn Féin will win 50% of seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SDLP will win 75% of seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SDLP will win 75% of seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Plaid Cymru will win 4.25 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that SDLP will win 75% of seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Plaid Cymru will win 4.25 seats in the next UK general election? | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that each party will win 50% of seats in the next UK general election? | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United Kingdom will apply to rejoin the EU by 2039? Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024 will be 232.2? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US Customs and Border Protection will report 201k southwest land border encounters for the month of April 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US Customs and Border Protection will report 201k southwest land border encounters for the month of April 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Solar Cycle 25 will end by Oct 2030? The end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sun... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Solar Cycle 25 will end by Oct 2030? The end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sun... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that US Customs and Border Protection will report 201k southwest land border encounters for the month of April 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024 will be 232.2? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United Kingdom will apply to rejoin the EU by 2039? Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024 will be 232.2? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the United Kingdom will apply to rejoin the EU by 2039? Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced ... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Solar Cycle 25 will end by Oct 2030? The end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sun... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Denmark will rank 50th in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030 with a GDP per capita (PPP) of 14.0? One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) "the market value of a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Denmark will rank 50th in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030 with a GDP per capita (PPP) of 14.0? One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) "the market value of a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a human with no biological feet will run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds by 2041? Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.
The current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed o... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that there will be 13.7 Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a human with no biological feet will run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds by 2041? Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.
The current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed o... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Denmark will rank 50th in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030 with a GDP per capita (PPP) of 14.0? One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) "the market value of a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that a human with no biological feet will run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds by 2041? Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.
The current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed o... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that outdoor air pollution will cause 75% of DALYs in 2030? Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/213614... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that outdoor air pollution will cause 75% of DALYs in 2030? Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/213614... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 80.6 proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035? According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promis... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP will first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year in 2053? Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sen... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by 2026? This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationa... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by 2026? This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationa... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by 2026? This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationa... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bitcoin will lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency by 2050? Bitcoin (BTC) is one of hundreds of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advanta... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that outdoor air pollution will cause 75% of DALYs in 2030? Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/213614... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bitcoin will lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency by 2050? Bitcoin (BTC) is one of hundreds of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advanta... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP will first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year in 2053? Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sen... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the world's real GDP will first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year in 2053? Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sen... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the probability that Amazon will deliver some products by drone by May 2025? [Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by ma... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that Bitcoin will lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency by 2050? Bitcoin (BTC) is one of hundreds of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advanta... | 0.75 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 80.6 proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035? According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promis... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the probability that Amazon will deliver some products by drone by May 2025? [Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by ma... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human head transplant will not occur before Sep 2047? Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that 80.6 proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035? According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promis... | 0.25 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human head transplant will not occur before Sep 2047? Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
What is the chance that the first human head transplant will not occur before Sep 2047? Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, a... | 0.5 | Metaculus |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.