text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.54 | Manifold |
Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Francesca Gino be reinstated as a Professor at Harvard by Aug 1st 2024? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2030? | 0.34 | Manifold |
In 2030, will the broad consensus among experts be that DID forms as a result of childhood trauma? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT be mentioned in the 2024 US presidential debates? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Sundar Pichai remain Alphabet CEO by 2025 end? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Roblox announce an ML infra offering by end of Q2 2024? | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will pickleball become an Olympic sport by 2030 | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will renewable energy sources account for more than 50% of global electricity production by 2030? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2028? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2027? | 0.17 | Manifold |
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2026? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2050? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will the web environment integrity project be officially discontinued/abandoned by the end of 2024? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will the Manifold interface involve maps by the July 1, 2024? | 0.34 | Manifold |
In how many states will Joe Biden have been indicted by Nov 5, 2024 | 0.07 | Manifold |
In how many states will Donald Trump have been indicted by Nov 5, 2024 | 0.43 | Manifold |
In how many states will Joe Biden be indicted by Nov 5, 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the metaverse become a mainstream social platform by 2030? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 9800 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.83 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 9600 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 9400 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.86 | Manifold |
Will Manifold Reach 9200 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | 0.94 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027? | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will Dune 2 be released before 2024? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will LK-99's manufacturing process inspire a new room temperature superconducting material by 2025? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will BCI enable human-monke communication by 2034? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Rocketlab perform a static fire test of their new Neutron rocket by the end of 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will planet 9 be discovered before 2030? | 0.23 | Manifold |
full dive VR BCI consumer devices by 2030 | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will primates take over the Earth, á la Planet of the Apes, by 2080? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will the JetBlue, Spirit Airlines merger close by July 1, 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the noxacusis subreddit reach 400 members before 2025? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Justin Trudeau remarry before October 20, 2025? | 0.57 | Manifold |
If the Room-Temperature Superconductor is not real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
If the Room-Temperature Superconductor is real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 8000 unique traders? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Bronny James be drafted in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will Hungrybox lose a tournament set to an opponent for the first time before 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will any other Republican presidential candidate overtake Trump in the 538 primary polling average before 2024? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand's Men's national football team (the All Whites) qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will someone get canceled for a comment made on Manifold by the end of 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Midjourney can create correct text in images by June 1 2024 | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Manifold introduce some sort of calibration leaderboard/ranking system before 2024? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Manifold include info about subsidy value, amount bet, or APY range for each question in the Home feed by 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 6000 unique traders? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Donald Trump before the general elections in November 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Will the West Coast of the island of Hawai'i experience "Coral Bleaching Warning Level 2" before 2025? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030? | 0.51 | Manifold |
Will any US state lower the voting age below 18 by 2030? | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will a socialist be elected president by 2040? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the CDC create a Biosafety Level 5 Category before 2040? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will a pathogenic bacteria be designated a Biosafety Level 4 Organism by the CDC before 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI remain independent by EOY 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit) | 0.76 | Manifold |
Will there be parliamentary elections in 2024 in Poland? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will 2100 wipe out humanity by AI? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will Forest Fires Continue To Spread In Ontario by 2024? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will Tether trade for less than 0.8 USD before August 2024 on Kraken? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will ChatGPT remain the most popular service in its niche by 2024? | 0.85 | Manifold |
Will the Reimann Hypotheses be Resolved by the year 2035 | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will AH be employed by TL on the 31st December 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about AI extinction risks before 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will any Manifold market reach 10,000 traders by the end of 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will Germany lose its AAA rating before end of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Luis Wenus create a startup that reaches $10 million in market cap by 2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will any Boeing 747-400 still be in regular passenger service by 2030? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will George Russell finish in the top 5 drivers in the 2024 season? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine exist separately until 2030? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about UFOs before 2024? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will Python add `{:}`, `{,}` and maybe `(,)` in or before 3.15 (October 2026)? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will Spotify create a record label and release AI-generated songs by 2026? | 0.31 | Manifold |
How many humans will live in 2100? | 0.67 | Manifold |
Will the UK be in recession by Q2 2024? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will Anthropic be acquired by another company before the end of 2025? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Rust remain the most loved/admired programming language according to the 2024 StackOverflow Developer Survey? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Barbie gross $1.2 billion worldwide by the end of 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Cyberpunk 2077: Phantom Liberty reach an 85% on Metacritic by launch day? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Before 2030, will Trump spend 365 consecutive days outside the US? | 0.26 | Manifold |
London Breed is re-elected Mayor of San Francisco in 2024 | 0.29 | Manifold |
Will Humane release their AI pin by H1 2024 | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will RTAP materials similar to lk99 be reported by 2025 ? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will there be an arcology (self-sufficient habitat) constructed with capacity for 10,000+ residents by 2040? | 0.29 | Manifold |
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