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Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
0.57
Manifold
Will Parkinson's be curable by 2028
0.17
Manifold
Will a reusable orbital rocket booster be re-flown by a company other than SpaceX before 2025?
0.33
Manifold
Can Korean scientists get Nobel prize by 2035 ?
0.56
Manifold
Russia deploys tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine by end of 2024
0.1
Manifold
Will we see a recorded air temperature reading of 150 degrees before 2030?
0.41
Manifold
Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?
0.05
Manifold
Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
0.31
Manifold
Will the state of Louisiana legalize marijuana by the end of 2030?
0.39
Manifold
Conditional on Biden winning in 2024, is LK-99 real if and only if Eliezer Yudkowsky tweets the word rationalussy?
0.48
Manifold
Will Python's new No-GIL become officially supported before 2026?
0.71
Manifold
Will a superconductor beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2025?
0.07
Manifold
Will a unified theory of Quantum Gravity usurp the Standard Model before 2045?
0.77
Manifold
Will lawmakers gain access to a SCIF for UAP discussions before 2024?
0.5
Manifold
Will there be a single death due to meteorite before 2100?
0.2
Manifold
Will there be products utilizing room-tempature, ambient-pressure superconductors by the end of 2024?
0.29
Manifold
How many people worldwide will be living primarily underground in 2040?
0.68
Manifold
Will Moody’s Investors Service downgrade the US Credit Rating before 2025?
0.34
Manifold
What will be the population of Canada in the year 2030?
0.5
Manifold
Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models be priced at less than $1,500 by 2025?
0.3
Manifold
In 2024, will the majority of Redwood researchers think it would have been better if they had left Redwood in 2023?
0.31
Manifold
Will Vision Pro, and other Apple headset models be priced at less than $1,000 by 2025?
0.16
Manifold
Will universal basic income be introduced in the U.S. by 2030?
0.27
Manifold
Will humans land on the moon before 2027?
0.59
Manifold
Will room-temperature superconductors (such as LK-99) achieve commercial adoption by 2028?
0.4
Manifold
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
0.81
Manifold
Will Anduril Industries acquire Radiant Nuclear before 2024?
0.57
Manifold
Will Vivek Ramaswamy become the president of the United States in 2024?
0.06
Manifold
Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 5000 unique traders?
0.99
Manifold
Will Nvidia lower the MSRP of any of the currently released RTX 4000 series GPUs before August 1st, 2024?
0.46
Manifold
Will NR and NMN supplementation by proven to promote longevity-related outcomes in healthy adults by 2025?
0.56
Manifold
Will Mrbeast be a billionaire by 2025
0.46
Manifold
Will Ludwig Ahgren appear on Jet Lag before 2025?
0.25
Manifold
Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?
0.47
Manifold
Will the Crimean bridge (Kerch bridge) be attacked once again by Ukraine by 2024?
0.89
Manifold
Will human content generation be completely automated by the year 2034?
0.4
Manifold
Will AAPL launch its own modem in the 2024 iPhone?
0.54
Manifold
Will the first optical computer be sold on the consumer market before 2025?
0.23
Manifold
Will Zain lose a set to a Fox player before 2024?
0.51
Manifold
Will Google deprecate Flutter before 2025?
0.27
Manifold
Will rationalussy wipe out humanity by 2100?
0.21
Manifold
Will the current Prime Minister of Belgium be replaced before the end of 2024?
0.61
Manifold
Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be president of Spain's Partido Popular on 2024?
0.35
Manifold
Will the Ariane 6 rocket reach orbit before July 1st 2024?
0.58
Manifold
Will Pedro Sánchez still be Spain's Prime Minister in 2024?
0.64
Manifold
Will any European country have changed its capital before the end of 2024?
0.13
Manifold
Bitcoin will be back to 45000$ in next 365 days
0.3
Manifold
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered by the end of 2024?
0.4
Manifold
Will Bluesky survive past 2024?
0.53
Manifold
Will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved before 2030?
0.47
Manifold
Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?
0.13
Manifold
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room temp superconductivity in LK-99?
0.3
Manifold
Will ActivityPub and AT Protocol (Bluesky) be interoperable before 2025?
0.5
Manifold
Highest known critical temperature (in kelvin) of an ambient-pressure superconductor in 2030?
0.02
Manifold
Will an EPR2 nuclear reactor be running in France by 2036?
0.5
Manifold
Will Psychonauts 3 be announced before the end of 2026?
0.3
Manifold
Will the Netherlands win a World Cup by 2043?
0.33
Manifold
Will a nuclear reactor start operation before 2030 that transforms long-lived nuclear waste into shorter lived waste?
0.37
Manifold
KMM will be an archived project on Github by December 2025
0.97
Manifold
Will we have robot housekeepers by 2025?
0.52
Manifold
Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?
0.43
Manifold
Will global AR/VR headset sales exceed 75 million a year by 2030?
0.5
Manifold
Global peak oil consumption will be reached before the end of 2030.
0.68
Manifold
Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
0.59
Manifold
Will the Pfizer covid-19 vaccine get federally banned in the US by 2025
0.04
Manifold
Will a paper on room temp, ambient pressure Rationalussy superconductivity be released before 2025?
0.5
Manifold
Deltarune: Before 2030, will it be made explicitly canon that Kris is nonbinary?
0.74
Manifold
Will Manifold have 5000 USD or more in revenue for July 31st?
0.04
Manifold
Tetris: Will the fastest 40-line sprint be under 14 seconds by the end of 2025?
0.55
Manifold
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for president before Election Day 2028?
0.29
Manifold
Will Donald Trump win every contest in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primary?
0.27
Manifold
Will Mexico be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?
0.5
Manifold
Will Stripe cease operations by the end of 2028?
0.21
Manifold
Will Replit cease operations by 2028?
0.19
Manifold
Will >90% of online content be AI generated by 2025?
0.22
Manifold
Will Sri Lanka reach 4% GDP growth before 2025?
0.5
Manifold
Will installation of gas stoves in new construction homes be banned by the US Federal Government by 2030?
0.31
Manifold
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
0.3
Manifold
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?
0.75
Manifold
Will the US stock market increase ≥3x by the end of 2028?
0.07
Manifold
Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?
0.41
Manifold
Will the US Federally legalize cannabis by the end of 2024?
0.36
Manifold
Will the Communist Party of Austria (KPÖ) win any seat in the parliament by the end of 2024?
0.6
Manifold
By 2030, will New Zealand 🇳🇿 have officially announced a name change for international relations to include Aotearoa?
0.75
Manifold
Will worldcoin manage to get 2 billion people to scan their eyeballs by the end of 2030?
0.26
Manifold
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
0.33
Manifold
Will Elon Musk remain the CEO of Tesla when Q1 2024 results post?
0.81
Manifold
Will the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapse before the end of 2050?
0.48
Manifold
Will Apple sell more than 150k Vision Pro headsets in 2024?
0.68
Manifold
Will manifold be pinned as a scam site by 2025?
0.18
Manifold
Will Fortnite bring back Fishman as a NPC by the end of 2024?
0.57
Manifold
If LK-99 is confirmed to be a superconductor, will it produce more than 100 million USD by 2025?
0.77
Manifold
Will 'Oshi no Ko' Season Two be released in 2024?
0.83
Manifold
Will the Climate Clock officially hit zero before 2030?
0.82
Manifold
Will North Korea engage in an active military conflict before 2026?
0.12
Manifold
Will consumer electronics feature room temperature ambient pressure superconductors before 2025?
0.12
Manifold
Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029?
0.35
Manifold
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2050?
0.65
Manifold
Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2035?
0.66
Manifold
Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?
0.46
Manifold