text stringlengths 12 11.8k | prediction float64 0 1 | source stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Will Mr Modi still be the Prime Minister of India in 2025? | 0.9 | Manifold |
Will it be possible to convert mana into real money either on Manifold or any other platform by 2025? | 0.37 | Manifold |
If the 2024 Enhanced Games happen, will any athletes end up in the hospital? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will India's GDP cross $7 trillion by 2030? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will AI wipe out monkeys by 2030? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI provide access to GPT-4 weights to academic researchers not affiliated with OpenAI, by 2025? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 7: Steel Ball Run be animated before 2025? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Sam Altman have a manifold markets account before 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Sam Altman continue to be the CEO of OpenAI until the end of 2024? | 0.87 | Manifold |
Will Morena win Mexico's 2024 election by a margin of more than 10%? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will manifold get into legal trouble because they are not GPDR compliant before August 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will Dario Amodei be the CEO of Anthropic on September 6, 2024? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
Will Daniel Ricciardo drive for Red Bull Racing in 2025? | 0.33 | Manifold |
Before 2030 infectious agent created by humans at a non-governmental entity kills 5% of human population. | 0.08 | Manifold |
Will the world human population be <6 Billion on December 26, 2025? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will inflection AI have a model that is 10X the size of original GPT-4 at the end of Q1, 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will we mine an asteroid by 2034? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will humanoid robots win against the human soccer World Cup champions before 2037? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (2/3's majority requirement) | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (1% limit) | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (2% adjustment cap) | 0.55 | Manifold |
Will New Zealand implement conditional GST by 2024? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Glyphosate (Roundup) will be proven to reduce testosterone by interfering with the gut biome by 2030. | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will Tesla's market share of EVs sold in the US be above 50% in 2025? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will there be another 3x3 single (Rubik's Cube) below 3.47 seconds before 2024? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Nauru's GDP per capita (PPP) still be higher than Sudan's in 2028, according to the most recent estimate? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will Republicans win the popular vote in the 2024 US House Elections? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024 | 0.33 | Manifold |
Will the President of USA publicly deny Grusch's UFO allegations before 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will the Nancy Pelosi ETF outperform the inverse Jim Cramer ETF in 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will a Republican be elected to the United States Senate in 2024 in any state that Joe Biden won in 2020? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will Joe Manchin seek re-election to the United States Senate in 2024? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will LEMMiNO upload a public non-Q&A video to his main channel before July 25th 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Minecraft be beaten on a random seed in less than 7:45 before 2024? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will artificial general intelligence be achieved they the end of 2025 ? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Daniel Schmachtenberger go on Lex Fridman podcast by the end of 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will we see the release of most John F Kennedy assassination documents by EOY 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will at least 1% of all A/C units worldwide be replaced with energyless cooling alternatives by 2040? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin exceed ATH and reach 70,000$ before July 2025? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will there be an uplifted primate by 2060? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Manifold add clear and effective rules on market criteria in title vs description vs comments before 2024? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will we return to monke by 2100? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Destiny switch the primary microphone he uses while streaming at his desk before 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will handheld or desktop monitors become obsolete by the end of 2025? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2024? | 0.11 | Manifold |
Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the EU before 2027 | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Amazon release a version of Alexa with GPT4-level intelligence by the end of 2025? | 0.68 | Manifold |
Will BTC reach $1M before 2026? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Teslas allow showing YouTube or other movies/streaming on the main screen while driving before 2025 | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the US before 2027 | 0.67 | Manifold |
What will be the annual mean CO2 level in 2030? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030? | 0.21 | Manifold |
How many pageviews will Timelessmyths.com get in 2024? | 0.98 | Manifold |
Will Twitter/X buy Manifold before December 31st 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the Vinfast EV plant in North Carolina, USA produce vehicles by the end of 2026? | 0.66 | Manifold |
What will be the mean annual CO2 level in 2025? | 0.46 | Manifold |
What will be the mean annual CO2 level in 2024? | 0.47 | Manifold |
Will Cambridge Water 'run out of water' before 2030, conditional on major housebuilding in the area (>50,000 houses)? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will embryo selection be mentioned during a U.S. presidential debate before 2030? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will the Manifest conference reoccur in 2025? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will the Manifest conference reoccur in 2024? | 0.64 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI offer a higher-tier version of ChatGPT, priced above US$49, by 2025? | 0.71 | Manifold |
When will the Antarctic sea ice reach nearly zero before 2100? | 0.69 | Manifold |
When will the Antarctic sea ice reach a new minimum in 2024? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will the last Bitcoin be mined before 2140? | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will Wipeout AI humanity by 2030? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will autonomous lethal weapons platforms or "robot soldiers" be deployed in any conflict by end 2030? | 0.57 | Manifold |
Will autonomous lethal weapons platforms or "robot soldiers" be deployed in any conflict by end 2024? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will bitcoin price hit USD120,000 in 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2025? | 0.28 | Manifold |
Will jeff passan de transition before 2025 | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI release the source code and model weights of any of its legacy GPT-3 models before 2025? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will the Syrian civil war end before 2025? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will an open model with comparable results to GPT-4 on MMLU be released by the end of July 2024? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2024? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will there be a major data breach in 2024 affecting > 10 million people? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will a human land on the Sun by 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will NE-02 and ME-02 vote for the same party in the 2024 presidential election? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will Ranga Dias leave university of Rochester before 2025? | 0.5 | Manifold |
If AI destroys the world by 2035, will it be largely due to a company/lab based in the San Francisco Bay Area? | 0.65 | Manifold |
Will Ranga Dias have his Ph.D revoked before 2030? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will the government of Iceland collapse before 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will LEMMiNO upload a public video to his main channel before July 25th 2024? | 0.8 | Manifold |
Will Rational animations use AI voice narration in at least one of the videos on the channel before 2024 end? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will Beyond Meat go bankrupt in 2025? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will a presenter or guest say "spacious computing" on stage during a Keynote before 2024 ends? | 0.31 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo announce Splatoon 4 by the end of 2025? | 0.34 | Manifold |
Will Meta release automated deepfake scanning for all images/videos before 2025 | 0.59 | Manifold |
There will be a time where skz's concert tickets will be sold out in (59) SECONDS (before 2030) | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will we see any commercial solar cells with an efficiency >30% by the end of 2024? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Hunter Biden spend at least a year in jail/prison by 2030? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2030? | 0.17 | Manifold |
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