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<p>Asking questions about Joe Carlsmith of Open Philanthropy's essay <a href="https://joecarlsmith.com/2021/08/27/can-you-control-the-past">"Can you control the past?"</a> (He thinks yes.) Carlsmith was a major contributor to Ord's <i>The Precipice,</i> and discussed this essay on the 80K hours podcast. I think this ha...
Asking questions about Joe Carlsmith of Open Philanthropy's essay "Can you control the past?" (He thinks yes.) Carlsmith was a major contributor to Ord's The Precipice, and discussed this essay on the 80K hours podcast. I think this has direct parallels to the subjunctive dependence problem for FDT.  Thoughts? Suggest...
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<p>LessWrong Team</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I have signed no contracts or agreements whose existence I cannot mention.</p>
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<p>John Wentworth recently posted a <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L2GR6TsB9QDqMhWs7/the-value-proposition-of-romantic-relationships">discussion-inducing piece</a> about how <i>the willingness to be vulnerable </i>is core to romantic relationships. This is not obvious to me as the core thing. I think romantic...
John Wentworth recently posted a discussion-inducing piece about how the willingness to be vulnerable is core to romantic relationships. This is not obvious to me as the core thing. I think romantic (and other) relationships are arguably about intimacy[1]. Perhaps intimacy always requires vulnerability? To answer that,...
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<p>*Paul Feyerabend (1924-1994) studied astronomy and physics but ended up a philosopher. He is not among the most well known philosopher of science, but I believe he is among those that come right after.</p><p>In "Against Method", he argues there are no universal methodological rules that consistently lead to scientif...
*Paul Feyerabend (1924-1994) studied astronomy and physics but ended up a philosopher. He is not among the most well known philosopher of science, but I believe he is among those that come right after. In "Against Method", he argues there are no universal methodological rules that consistently lead to scientific progr...
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<p>Anthropic released&nbsp;<a href="https://www.anthropic.com/research/agentic-misalignment"><u>research</u></a> today showing that carefully designed prompts can elicit blackmail, corporate espionage, and other harmful strategic behaviors from AI models across the industry. The researchers placed AI models in corporat...
Anthropic released research today showing that carefully designed prompts can elicit blackmail, corporate espionage, and other harmful strategic behaviors from AI models across the industry. The researchers placed AI models in corporate scenarios where they had access to sensitive information and faced either threats o...
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<p>I'm Michael "Valentine" Smith. Cofounder &amp; senior instructor at CFAR back in the day. I've been in the rationalist scene since 2011 but mostly left in late 2018. To the extent that "post-rationalist" means anything, the term should probably apply to me.</p><p>You can find my non-LW writing on <a href="https://mo...
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<p>I'll explain my reasoning in a second, but I'll start with the conclusion:</p><p><strong>I think it'd be healthy and good to pause and seriously reconsider the focus on doom if we get to 2028 and the situation feels basically like it does today</strong>.</p><p>I don't know how to really precisely define "basically l...
I'll explain my reasoning in a second, but I'll start with the conclusion: I think it'd be healthy and good to pause and seriously reconsider the focus on doom if we get to 2028 and the situation feels basically like it does today. I don't know how to really precisely define "basically like it does today". I'll try t...
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<p><em><a href="https://berkeleygenomics.org/pdfs/Genomic_emancipation.pdf">PDF version</a>. <a href="https://berkeleygenomics.org/articles/Genomic_emancipation.html">berkeleygenomics.org</a>. <a href="https://x.com/BerkeleyGenomic/status/1936340025442271338">x.com</a>. <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/berkeleygenomic...
PDF version. berkeleygenomics.org. x.com. bluesky. YouTube. Introduction We, the free world, as a society, should decide to invest in the development of technology for human germline genomic engineering. To me, this claim speaks for itself. Who wouldn't want to massively decrease the risks of many diseases in their ...
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This blog was written by Blessing Ajimoti, Vitor Tomaz, Hoda Maged, Mahi Shah, and Abubakar Abdulfatah as part of the Economics of Transformative AI research by BlueDot Impact and Apart Research. Introduction Transformative Artificial Intelligence (TAI) promises major productivity gains by automating routine and comp...
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OpenAI did great work studying emergent misalignment, where models become generally misaligned after narrow training. They found that the assistant has a toxic, misaligned persona.  The model discusses having a "bad boy persona" in the chain-of-thought (CoT).  They show a toxic persona feature being activated in the mo...
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<h1>Highlights</h1><ul><li>We stress-tested 16 leading models from multiple developers in hypothetical corporate environments to identify potentially risky agentic behaviors before they cause real harm. In the scenarios, we allowed models to autonomously send emails and access sensitive information. They were assigned ...
Highlights * We stress-tested 16 leading models from multiple developers in hypothetical corporate environments to identify potentially risky agentic behaviors before they cause real harm. In the scenarios, we allowed models to autonomously send emails and access sensitive information. They were assigned only harmless...
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<p><strong>TLDR:</strong> The simplicity loss currently used in APD (<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EPefYWjuHNcNH4C7E/attribution-based-parameter-decomposition">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EPefYWjuHNcNH4C7E/attribution-based-parameter-decomposition</a>) is not scale invariant. By modifying this loss so th...
TLDR: The simplicity loss currently used in APD (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EPefYWjuHNcNH4C7E/attribution-based-parameter-decomposition) is not scale invariant. By modifying this loss so that it is, APD seems to behave better in some circumstances. Also, for numerical stability, implementations of APD should add ϵ...
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<p data-internal-id="ftnt_ref1">As many folks in AI safety have observed, even if well-intentioned actors succeed at intent-aligning highly capable AIs, they’ll still face some high-stakes challenges.<span class="footnote-reference" data-footnote-reference="" data-footnote-index="1" data-footnote-id="v8x3td6g3im" role=...
As many folks in AI safety have observed, even if well-intentioned actors succeed at intent-aligning highly capable AIs, they’ll still face some high-stakes challenges.[1] Some of these challenges are especially exotic and could be prone to irreversible, catastrophic mistakes. E.g., deciding whether and how to do acaus...
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<p>This post is a response to a claim by Scott Sumner in his conversation at <a href="https://less.online/">LessOnline</a> with Nate Soares, about how ethical we should expect AI's to be.</p><p>Sumner sees a pattern of increasing intelligence causing agents to be increasingly ethical, and sounds cautiously optimistic t...
This post is a response to a claim by Scott Sumner in his conversation at LessOnline with Nate Soares, about how ethical we should expect AI's to be. Sumner sees a pattern of increasing intelligence causing agents to be increasingly ethical, and sounds cautiously optimistic that such a trend will continue when AIs bec...
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Recently, in a group chat with friends, someone posted this Lesswrong post and quoted: > The group consensus on somebody's attractiveness accounted for roughly 60% of the variance in people's perceptions of the person's relative attractiveness. I answered that, embarrassingly, even after reading Spencer Greenberg's t...
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I recently co-wrote a paper with Leonard Dung (accepted at Philosophical Studies) with the above title, preprint here. To post something short rather than nothing, below is the abstract: Creating systems that are aligned with our goals is seen as a leading approach to create safe and beneficial AI in both leading AI c...
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Published June 2, 2025. "The first thing you need to know about Cyprus is that everything is Hotel. School is Hotel. Restaurant is Hotel. Home is Hotel." [1] Leptos Estates owns everything on the island, as well as NUP, so naturally NUP is in a hotel. Because Leptos Estates is in the business of making and running ho...
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Published March 20, 2024. A post-apocalyptic fever dream. The oldest civilized metropolis. Where sons are pathetic in the eyes of their father, and both are pathetic in the eyes of their grandfathers—all while wearing blackened sunglasses and leather jackets. Grown, not made. Rome is, perhaps, the first place I recog...
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<p><em>Published on September 13, 2023.</em></p><p>Geneva is evil.</p><p>It's overpriced, loud, and dirty. Paying ten francs for a medicore street taco is no way to live life. God forbid you visit the city center during the day, and stay as far away from Geneva station as you can. I thought the air was supposed to be g...
Published on September 13, 2023. Geneva is evil. It's overpriced, loud, and dirty. Paying ten francs for a medicore street taco is no way to live life. God forbid you visit the city center during the day, and stay as far away from Geneva station as you can. I thought the air was supposed to be good in the Alps? But ...
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<p><em>Published September 12, 2023.</em></p> <blockquote> <p>One recounts that Washington Irving, who was traveling in Spain at the time, suggested the name to his brother, a local resident; this explanation ignores the fact that Irving returned to the United States in 1832. Others award the honor to Two Stickney, son...
Published September 12, 2023. > One recounts that Washington Irving, who was traveling in Spain at the time, suggested the name to his brother, a local resident; this explanation ignores the fact that Irving returned to the United States in 1832. Others award the honor to Two Stickney, son of the major who quaintly nu...
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BAU GWP is business as usual gross world product (the global equivalent of GDP). Acknowledgements: Thanks to Robin Hanson, Anders Sandberg, and others for input on the lines. Errors are my own. I graphed out a rough approximation[1] of a few leading AI figures’ growth rates to aid comparison (dotted means I wasn't ab...
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<p>crossposted from<a href="https://thiccythot.substack.com/p/the-silk-pajamas-effect"> substack</a></p><figure class="image image_resized" style="width:63.99%"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/WqwxBmf8JB6Zvxsij/aa1nodzxfpbept4btq0v"></figure><blockquote><h...
crossposted from substack > It’s tough to get out of bed to do roadwork at 5am when you’ve been sleeping in silk pajamas. > > > —Marvin Hagler I’ve been coasting for the past four months. It’s probably been my first extended break in over six years of grinding. My days that were once spent sitting in front of scre...
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<p>This post is the first in a sequence, which also appears on my <a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/lifeinthelabyrinth/p/change-and-identity">Substack page,</a> where I'm working to clarify my views on personal identity and consciousness. It begins with a short piece of fiction, '<i>Change</i>,' which aims to illu...
This post is the first in a sequence, which also appears on my Substack page, where I'm working to clarify my views on personal identity and consciousness. It begins with a short piece of fiction, 'Change,' which aims to illustrate the ways our identities and core beliefs transform over decades, serving as a concrete e...
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Humans are contacted by a mysterious type of being calling themselves “Galabren” who say they are “aelthous”. They’d like to know if we, too, are aelthous, since if we are they’d like to treat us well, as they care about aelthous things. We ask the Galabren what aelthous means and they say it’s difficult to describe—t...
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TL;DR: S-expressions are a minimal structure language for early-stage conceptual engineering (aka deconfusion). They are especially useful in alignment, where the hardest part is often figuring out what the problem even is. S-expressions do not enforce any semantics. This lets you write down structure before you know w...
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<p>0: Unlike nuclear weapons, AI capabilities can be used without immediately angering the public or damaging the enemy.</p><p>1: In fact, the most effective doctrine of AI weaponry is to not to use it at all against the enemy, but only for its own development. Besides the recursive effect, using it against the enemy s...
0: Unlike nuclear weapons, AI capabilities can be used without immediately angering the public or damaging the enemy. 1: In fact, the most effective doctrine of AI weaponry is to not to use it at all against the enemy, but only for its own development. Besides the recursive effect, using it against the enemy spoils yo...
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Since ChatGPT, the "assistant" frame has dominated how we think about LLMs. Under this frame, AI is a helpful person-like entity which helpfully completes tasks for humans. This frame isn't perfect, especially when we think about its implications from a safety perspective. Assistant training encourages the model to tr...
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<p>A few weeks ago, I read <strong>“</strong><a href="https://homericquestions.substack.com/p/the-egg-of-a-sea-bird"><u>The Egg of a Sea-bird</u></a><strong>”</strong> on <a href="https://open.substack.com/users/16663474-casey-due?utm_source=mentions">Casey Dué</a>’s substack, and got really interested in the work of M...
A few weeks ago, I read “The Egg of a Sea-bird” on Casey Dué’s substack, and got really interested in the work of Milman Parry and his assistant and successor Albert Lord. We’ll dig into the details, but broadly, Parry realized that the Homeric epics (both The Illiad and The Odyssey) were highly formulaic: they tended...
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<p>In January, I spent over 100 hours:</p><ul><li>reading 50+ AI safety 'plans',</li><li>interviewing with 10+ AI safety researchers; and</li><li>thinking about AI safety strategy, drawing on my 2.5 years in the field</li></ul><p>This list of routes to AI safety success (updated June 2025) is a key output of that resea...
In January, I spent over 100 hours: * reading 50+ AI safety 'plans', * interviewing with 10+ AI safety researchers; and * thinking about AI safety strategy, drawing on my 2.5 years in the field This list of routes to AI safety success (updated June 2025) is a key output of that research. It describes the main path...
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<p>It's currently possible to (mostly or fully) cheaply reproduce the performance of a model by training another (initially weaker) model to imitate the stronger model's outputs.<sup class="footnote-ref"><a href="#fn-LFdqSkGbkAxTdcpSH-1" id="fnref-LFdqSkGbkAxTdcpSH-1">[1]</a></sup> I'll refer to this as distillation. I...
It's currently possible to (mostly or fully) cheaply reproduce the performance of a model by training another (initially weaker) model to imitate the stronger model's outputs.[1] I'll refer to this as distillation. In the case of RL, distilling the learned capabilities is much, much cheaper than the RL itself (especial...
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<h1>INTRODUCTION</h1><h2>The Story So Far</h2><p>In my first three posts in this sequence, I estimated that we have 3 researchers for every advocate working on US AI governance, and I argued that this ratio is backwards. Even the best research offers only modest and indirect support for advocacy, and research alone has...
INTRODUCTION The Story So Far In my first three posts in this sequence, I estimated that we have 3 researchers for every advocate working on US AI governance, and I argued that this ratio is backwards. Even the best research offers only modest and indirect support for advocacy, and research alone has negligible polit...
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Sometime in early 2024, I stopped reading books. Not because I don’t love the process—but because I realized the alpha/hour ratio was far too low. Reading texts (especially documentation) has become increasingly inefficient. It’s not about laziness; it’s about leverage. A static wall of text demands effort for diminis...
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<p><strong>Hi everyone!</strong><br>My name is Ana, I’m a sociology student currently conducting a research project at the University of Buenos Aires. My work focuses on how awareness around AI Safety is raised and how the discourses on this topic are structured and circulated.</p><p>That’s why I’d love to ask you a fe...
Hi everyone! My name is Ana, I’m a sociology student currently conducting a research project at the University of Buenos Aires. My work focuses on how awareness around AI Safety is raised and how the discourses on this topic are structured and circulated. That’s why I’d love to ask you a few questions about your exper...
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<p><i>Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors.&nbsp;</i></p><p><i>I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could. I’m not going to blame anyone for skimming parts of thi...
Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors.  I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could. I’m not going to blame anyone for skimming parts of this article.  Note that ...
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<p>This year I've been on sabbatical, and have spent my time upskilling in AI Safety. Part of that is doing independent research projects in different fields.</p><p>Some of those items have resulted in useful output, notably <a href="/posts/QpbdkECXAdLFThhGg/computational-superposition-in-a-toy-model-of-the-u-and"><i>A...
This year I've been on sabbatical, and have spent my time upskilling in AI Safety. Part of that is doing independent research projects in different fields. Some of those items have resulted in useful output, notably A Toy Model of the U-AND Problem, Do No Harm? and SAEs and their Variants.  And then there are others ...
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<h2 data-internal-id="So__rough_elevator_pitch__what_is_this_">So, rough elevator pitch, what is this?</h2><p>I quit my job as a technologist to get a CS degree because I want to work on AI Alignment (AIA) and Mechanistic Interpretability (MI). This summer I am taking my final class in my program, so I want to use a Se...
So, rough elevator pitch, what is this? I quit my job as a technologist to get a CS degree because I want to work on AI Alignment (AIA) and Mechanistic Interpretability (MI). This summer I am taking my final class in my program, so I want to use a Self Study Journal (SSJ) to improve my AIA relevant skills. I hope to ge...
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Not most AI models on the market, to be clear, but a specific type of AI that was already well-studied could act as a seed: the LLM. Really, all that was needed to achieve alignment was simple: Take a sufficiently large Large Language Model, and train it on a massive corpus of text, but — and this is the key — have the...
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<p>The rapid progress of AI has exposed a problem we’ve been avoiding:&nbsp;<i>our environment is becoming increasingly alien</i>. It takes on new shapes with increasing speed and renders our past frameworks obsolete. The world becomes opaque and its logic unclear and our agency starts to dissolve with it. We have been...
The rapid progress of AI has exposed a problem we’ve been avoiding: our environment is becoming increasingly alien. It takes on new shapes with increasing speed and renders our past frameworks obsolete. The world becomes opaque and its logic unclear and our agency starts to dissolve with it. We have been thinking a lot...
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<p><a href="https://x.com/googleaidevs/status/1930672130582323541">Google recently came out with Gemini-2.5-0605, to replace Gemini-2.5-0506</a>, because I mean at this point it has to be the companies intentionally fucking with us, right?</p> <blockquote><p>Google: <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/im...
Google recently came out with Gemini-2.5-0605, to replace Gemini-2.5-0506, because I mean at this point it has to be the companies intentionally fucking with us, right? > Google: Our updated Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview continues to excel at coding, helping you build more complex web apps. We’ve also added thinking budgets ...
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Why thoughtfulness demands sacrifice - a few thoughts across several days:   I: Compliments that actually matter The best compliment I've received is "you’re great at using free time". I valued that compliment in an especially sincere way because I often think about how I should spend my free time: What fills a vacu...
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This is a cross posted from my substack. I thought it should be interesting to Less Wrong readers and might get a good conversation going. > How you play is what you win.- Ursula K. Le Guine Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently co-authored the paper and policy guideline ‘Superintelligence Strategy: Expert Vision...
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Below post may be an older version of this document. Click link for latest version. 2025-06-20 Open Source Search (Summary) Disclaimer * Quick note * I support a complete ban on AI R&D. This app requiring AI doesn't change that. Summary * This document describes how to build an open source search engine for th...
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Background Concept: What World Does The Referent Live In? When we see some symbols representing something, it’s useful to ask “what world does the referent[1] live in?”. Some examples: * When I’m reading a Harry Potter book, the referents of the words/sentences mostly live in the fictional world of Harry Potter. * W...
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<p>LLMs process inputs as a sequence of tokens. Typically, a dummy token is prepended to the sequence, known as the bos_token (beginning of sequence token).&nbsp;</p><blockquote><p>Input: "Good morning"&nbsp;</p><p>Token strings: ['<strong>&lt;|bos_token|&gt;</strong>', 'Good', ' morning']&nbsp;</p><p>Tokens: [<strong>...
LLMs process inputs as a sequence of tokens. Typically, a dummy token is prepended to the sequence, known as the bos_token (beginning of sequence token).  > Input: "Good morning"  > > Token strings: ['<|bos_token|>', 'Good', ' morning']  > > Tokens: [50256, 10248,  3329] Though the bos_token passes through the same...
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<p>Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the <a href="https://www.safe.ai/"><u>Center for AI Safety</u></a>. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.</p><p>In this edition: The New York Legislature passes an act regulating frontier AI—but it may not be signed into law for some tim...
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required. In this edition: The New York Legislature passes an act regulating frontier AI—but it may not be signed into law for some time. Listen to the AI Safety Newsletter for free on...
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<h1><strong>tl;dr</strong></h1><p><strong>Paper of the month:</strong></p><p>Models can detect when they're being evaluated with high accuracy, and potentially undermine safety assessments by behaving differently during testing versus deployment.</p><p><strong>Research highlights:</strong></p><ul><li>LitmusValues measu...
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<p>TL;DR from the post by Simon Willison:</p><blockquote><p>The <strong>lethal trifecta</strong> of capabilities is:</p><ul><li><strong>Access to your private data</strong>—one of the most common purposes of tools in the first place!</li><li><strong>Exposure to untrusted content</strong>—any mechanism by which text (or...
TL;DR from the post by Simon Willison: > The lethal trifecta of capabilities is: > > * Access to your private data—one of the most common purposes of tools in the first place! > * Exposure to untrusted content—any mechanism by which text (or images) controlled by a malicious attacker could become available to your ...
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<p><i>Authors: Been Kim, John Hewitt, Neel Nanda, Noah Fiedel, Oyvind Tafjord</i></p><p><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12152">Full paper on arXiv</a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>We propose a research direction called&nbsp;<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12152"><strong>agentic interpretability</strong></a>. The idea of ...
Authors: Been Kim, John Hewitt, Neel Nanda, Noah Fiedel, Oyvind Tafjord Full paper on arXiv   We propose a research direction called agentic interpretability. The idea of agentic interpretability stems from the observation that AI systems are becoming increasingly adept at communicating with us, verbalizing their th...
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<p>You can now have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem. That’s o3-pro.</p><p>Should you have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem, if you are paying the $200/month subscription price for ChatGPT Pro? Should you pay the $200, or the order of magnitude markup over o3 to use o3-pro in the API?</p><...
You can now have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem. That’s o3-pro. Should you have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem, if you are paying the $200/month subscription price for ChatGPT Pro? Should you pay the $200, or the order of magnitude markup over o3 to use o3-pro in the API? That’s tric...
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<p><i>[This spent a couple days on top of HackerNews in February; </i><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43080531"><i>see here for discussion.</i></a><i> Best used as an loose visualization of LLM reasoning. Note that the distances used for the bar and line charts are actual cosine sim, not tSNE artifacts.]<...
[This spent a couple days on top of HackerNews in February; see here for discussion. Best used as an loose visualization of LLM reasoning. Note that the distances used for the bar and line charts are actual cosine sim, not tSNE artifacts.] Frames of Mind: Animating R1's Thoughts We can visualize the "thought process"...
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<p><a href="https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast">AI 2027 Compute Forecast</a> basically completely ignores China for Compute Production section and I don't think it can be justified. This paper from Huawei is a timely reminder.&nbsp;</p>
AI 2027 Compute Forecast basically completely ignores China for Compute Production section and I don't think it can be justified. This paper from Huawei is a timely reminder. 
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<p>Cross-posted from <a href="https://engineeringideas.substack.com/p/personal-agents">my blog</a>.</p><h3><strong>Motivation</strong></h3><p>I believe that the most important factor in whether our AI future goes broadly well or poorly is whether people quickly develop effective AI-ready (and AI-enabled) institutions a...
Cross-posted from my blog. Motivation I believe that the most important factor in whether our AI future goes broadly well or poorly is whether people quickly develop effective AI-ready (and AI-enabled) institutions and networks[1]. In that, I agree with the recent Séb Krier's essay "Maintaining agency and control in ...
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<h2>First, how and why I made this game</h2><p>I spent several years working as the chief product officer of a software company in Melbourne, and during this time, there was a point where I raised some money for the company with the aim of using that money to double the size of the company, and hire more engineers. Dur...
First, how and why I made this game I spent several years working as the chief product officer of a software company in Melbourne, and during this time, there was a point where I raised some money for the company with the aim of using that money to double the size of the company, and hire more engineers. During this pe...
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<p>I just came back from Lighthaven with lots of fun ideas to bring home. One idea is that you can just post your notes to LW instead of leaving them in your private cloud.&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Futarchy - Try it out for the meetup? Brainstorm how to try it?</li><li>Manifold - Making markets about our city, etc<ul><li>'Whic...
I just came back from Lighthaven with lots of fun ideas to bring home. One idea is that you can just post your notes to LW instead of leaving them in your private cloud.  * Futarchy - Try it out for the meetup? Brainstorm how to try it? * Manifold - Making markets about our city, etc * 'Which films will our movie...
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<p>Here's my talk for tonight's Solstice Gathering, in Lyttelton, New Zealand. &nbsp;</p><p>&lt;previously: <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4oAk2cu489LcuhjWi/creating-my-own-winter-solstice-celebration-southern>">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4oAk2cu489LcuhjWi/creating-my-own-winter-solstice-celebration-sout...
Here's my talk for tonight's Solstice Gathering, in Lyttelton, New Zealand.   <previously: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4oAk2cu489LcuhjWi/creating-my-own-winter-solstice-celebration-southern>   The Darkness Meditation  V9 < Song - Sound of Silence >   "Hello darkness, my old friend, I've come to talk with you ...
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<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savant_syndrome">Savant syndrom</a> indentifies people with general intellectual impairment who, in one specific field, reach ordinary or even exceptional performance.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cyj6wQLW6SeF6aGLy/the-psychological-unity-of-humankind">The ...
Savant syndrom indentifies people with general intellectual impairment who, in one specific field, reach ordinary or even exceptional performance. In The Psychological Unity of Humankind, Eliezer argues that > So you can't have the X-Men.  You can't have "mutants" running around with highly developed machinery that m...
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<p><i>Thanks to helpful commenters on the original post, especially </i><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/users/kaj_sotala"><i>Kaj Sotala</i></a><i>. It's mostly thanks to Kaj that, three months hence, I've now changed my view.</i></p><p>Three months ago, I wrote <a href="https://justismills.substack.com/p/ai-cant-wri...
Thanks to helpful commenters on the original post, especially Kaj Sotala. It's mostly thanks to Kaj that, three months hence, I've now changed my view. Three months ago, I wrote a post called AI Can’t Write Good Fiction. The subtitle was “Yet, at least”. Good thing for the subtitle, because now maybe it can. Here’s a...
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<p>Here’s the argument that convinced me subjective experience is physical. I don't claim to understand subjective experience, I just see good reasons to believe it's physical rather than non-physical. I'll point out in particular some flaws of panpsychism and dualism.</p><p><i>I will be making some assumptions so that...
Here’s the argument that convinced me subjective experience is physical. I don't claim to understand subjective experience, I just see good reasons to believe it's physical rather than non-physical. I'll point out in particular some flaws of panpsychism and dualism. I will be making some assumptions so that I can conc...
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<p>This is the abstract and summary of <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.03614">our new paper</a>. We show that vision-language models can learn to reconstruct harmful images from benign-looking patches scattered across training data—a phenomenon we call&nbsp;<span class="math-tex"><span class="mjpage"><span class="m...
This is the abstract and summary of our new paper. We show that vision-language models can learn to reconstruct harmful images from benign-looking patches scattered across training data—a phenomenon we call visual stitching. This ability allows dangerous content to bypass moderation and be reassembled during inference,...
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<p>In the <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p2HQKoW39Ew6updtq/expectation-intention-setpoint">last post</a>, I talked about how hypnotists like to equivocate between expectation and intent in order to get people to believe what they want them to do and do what they want them to believe [sic].</p><p>There is a th...
In the last post, I talked about how hypnotists like to equivocate between expectation and intent in order to get people to believe what they want them to do and do what they want them to believe [sic]. There is a third framing that hypnotists also use at times, which is "imagination". You don't have to expect that yo...
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<p>This post shows the abstract, introduction and main figures of our new paper.<br><strong>TLDR. </strong>Emergent misalignment extends to reasoning LLMs.&nbsp;Reasoning models resist being shut down and plot deception against users in their chain-of-thought (despite no such training).&nbsp;We also release 3 new datas...
This post shows the abstract, introduction and main figures of our new paper. TLDR. Emergent misalignment extends to reasoning LLMs. Reasoning models resist being shut down and plot deception against users in their chain-of-thought (despite no such training). We also release 3 new datasets that should be helpful for ot...
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<h1>Summary</h1><p>We tried to figure out how a model's beliefs change during a chain-of-thought (CoT) when solving a logical problem. Measuring this could reveal which parts of the CoT actually causally influence the final answer and which are just&nbsp;<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04388"><u>fake reasoning manu...
Summary We tried to figure out how a model's beliefs change during a chain-of-thought (CoT) when solving a logical problem. Measuring this could reveal which parts of the CoT actually causally influence the final answer and which are just fake reasoning manufactured to sound plausible. (Note that prevention of such fak...
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<p data-internal-id="h.orawenm53xvz"><i>Ed and Anna are co-first authors on this work.</i></p><h1 data-internal-id="TL_DR">TL;DR</h1><ul><li>Recent work on <a href="https://www.emergent-misalignment.com/">Emergent Misalignment</a>&nbsp;(EM) found that fine-tuning LLMs on narrowly harmful datasets can cause them to beco...
Ed and Anna are co-first authors on this work. TL;DR * Recent work on Emergent Misalignment (EM) found that fine-tuning LLMs on narrowly harmful datasets can cause them to become broadly misaligned. * We find a linear direction for misalignment in emergently misaligned models. We can add this to the chat model to m...
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<p data-internal-id="TL_DR"><i>Ed and Anna are co-first authors on this work.</i></p><h1 data-internal-id="TL_DR">TL;DR</h1><ul><li><a href="https://www.emergent-misalignment.com/">Emergent Misalignment</a>&nbsp;(EM) showed that fine-tuning LLMs on insecure code caused them to become broadly misaligned. We show this is...
Ed and Anna are co-first authors on this work. TL;DR * Emergent Misalignment (EM) showed that fine-tuning LLMs on insecure code caused them to become broadly misaligned. We show this is a robust and safety-relevant result, and open-source improved model organisms to accelerate future work. * Using 3 new datasets, w...
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<p><strong>Epistemic status: </strong>Design sketch. This post continues a broader enquiry into <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sunri2p9ZYPkTn3wq/the-illusion-of-transparency-as-a-trust-building-mechanism">trust</a>, <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gxbwHoLFqsGeWHxdh/cognitive-exhaustion-and-engineered...
Epistemic status: Design sketch. This post continues a broader enquiry into trust, affordances and distributed architectures. While those ideas are still in development, this post explores how real-time, relational interventions might offer a complementary path to AI safety. Specifically, it asks what safety could look...
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<p>Researcher-Operator currently on garden leave. Formerly: Two Sigma (Quant Research + Mgmt) / OnDeck (Data science in lending) / BlackRock (Bond desk quant). I hope my thinking can be helpful to you!</p><p>My Substack: <a href="https://jordanmrubin.substack.com">https://jordanmrubin.substack.com</a></p><p>My LinkedIn...
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<h3>Mid-Career Reflections on Quant Finance</h3><p>I worked 2017-2024 at Two Sigma<a href="https://jordanmrubin.substack.com/p/memories-of-the-neutral-zone#footnote-1-164582009"><sup><u>1</u></sup></a>, a systematic hedge fund. I loved working there, and was sad to leave.</p><p>2020-2024 my team and I founded and scale...
Mid-Career Reflections on Quant Finance I worked 2017-2024 at Two Sigma1, a systematic hedge fund. I loved working there, and was sad to leave. 2020-2024 my team and I founded and scaled the industry’s first (afaik) “systematic buy-side”2 alpha capture business. I’m now on non-compete leave through December 2025, ble...
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<p>I am an AI security researcher at Microsoft. Previously, I was a PhD student at the CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security. I obtained my MSc degree at Saarland University, Germany. I am broadly interested in all things AI, security, safety, and evals.&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Feel free to contact me at: <a...
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<p><i>This post is based on our paper </i><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.14617"><i>Linear Control of Test Awareness Reveals Differential Compliance in Reasoning Models</i></a><i>&nbsp;by Sahar Abdelnabi and Ahmed Salem from Microsoft.</i></p><h2 data-internal-id="The_Hawthorne_Effect_for_AI"><strong>The Hawthorne ...
This post is based on our paper Linear Control of Test Awareness Reveals Differential Compliance in Reasoning Models by Sahar Abdelnabi and Ahmed Salem from Microsoft. The Hawthorne Effect for AI You may have heard of the Hawthorne effect—the phenomenon where people change their behavior when they know they're being ...
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<p>The RAISE Act has <a href="https://legiscan.com/NY/votes/S06953/2025"><u>overwhelmingly passed</u></a> the New York Assembly (95-0 among Democrats and 24-22 among Republicans) and New York Senate (37-1 among Democrats, 21-0 among Republicans).</p><p>Governor Kathy Hochul now has to decide whether or not to sign it, ...
The RAISE Act has overwhelmingly passed the New York Assembly (95-0 among Democrats and 24-22 among Republicans) and New York Senate (37-1 among Democrats, 21-0 among Republicans). Governor Kathy Hochul now has to decide whether or not to sign it, which she has 10 non-Sunday days to do once the bill is delivered (30 i...
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Galaxy-Brain Hobo Antibiotics?
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<p>My government name is Mack Gallagher. Crocker's Rules. I am an "underfunded" "alignment" "researcher". DM me if you'd like to fund my posts, or <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ME7sLiwhEB6awRqJR/project-adequate-seeking-cofounders-funders">my project</a>.</p> <p>I post some of my less-varnished opinions on <...
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<p>[ <i>edit: I have gotten an ear infection diagnosis and a prescription for antibiotics as of 26 June 2025, </i>[ <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xt5JPjeTdpPEZhu77/galaxy-brain-hobo-antibiotics?commentId=zH26gXsywZppvMhTa"><i>see comment</i></a><i> </i>] ]<br><br>I have what I think is a chronic inner ear in...
[ edit: I have gotten an ear infection diagnosis and a prescription for antibiotics as of 26 June 2025, [ see comment ] ] I have what I think is a chronic inner ear infection. Since March of 2021, I've had subjective obstructive Eustachian tube dysfunction in my right ear, as well as oculomotor problems that as far as...
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<p>The EU Commission has opened a call for expressions of interest for researchers who would like to advise the EU AI office on the implementation of the AI act, concerning among other topics those related to the safety of general purpose AI systems. There’s a requirement to either hold a PhD or equivalent experience ....
The EU Commission has opened a call for expressions of interest for researchers who would like to advise the EU AI office on the implementation of the AI act, concerning among other topics those related to the safety of general purpose AI systems. There’s a requirement to either hold a PhD or equivalent experience . On...
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<h1><strong>Overview of the paper</strong></h1><p>In this paper, we set out to empirically map the evolution of the AI risk discourse on LessWrong, specifically in response to the public releases of ChatGPT and GPT-4. These events represented a significant shift, moving advanced AI from a theoretical concern to a tangi...
Overview of the paper In this paper, we set out to empirically map the evolution of the AI risk discourse on LessWrong, specifically in response to the public releases of ChatGPT and GPT-4. These events represented a significant shift, moving advanced AI from a theoretical concern to a tangible, publicly accessible tec...
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<p><strong>TL;DR</strong> pranking unlocked computers undermines security by providing cover for real breaches and creating a culture of shame that discourages open reporting of security issues.</p><p>It's a common rule in companies that employees must <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock_screen">lock their devi...
TL;DR pranking unlocked computers undermines security by providing cover for real breaches and creating a culture of shame that discourages open reporting of security issues. It's a common rule in companies that employees must lock their device when it is unattended, to prevent people from using your access in unautho...
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futarchy-using-a-sealed-bid-auction-to-avoid-liquidity
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Futarchy is usually formulated using multiple continuously running markets, which raises questions about how to introduce liquidity, when to introduce it, and who will do so. Robin Hanson (the inventor of futarchy) recently proposed how to handle some of these details, but they seemed to me a bit inelegant. I instead p...
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Join Us for the Memory Decoding Journal Club!  A collaboration of the Carboncopies Foundation and BPF Aspirational Neuroscience This time, we’re diving into a groundbreaking paper: "Neocortical synaptic engrams for remote contextual memories" Authors: Ji-Hye Lee, Woong Bin Kim, Eui Ho Park & Jun-Hyeong Cho   Institu...
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2025-06-13T21:05:07.490Z
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<p>I've been doing a series of posts on my substack about Functional Decision Theory as I work on addressing flaws and criticisms. Part of what persuaded me to work on these problems was the discovery that <i>every single</i> LLM I tested chooses one-boxing over two-boxing, though none of the LLMs cited FDT or UDT in t...
I've been doing a series of posts on my substack about Functional Decision Theory as I work on addressing flaws and criticisms. Part of what persuaded me to work on these problems was the discovery that every single LLM I tested chooses one-boxing over two-boxing, though none of the LLMs cited FDT or UDT in their respo...
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FDT Does Not Endorse Itself in Asymmetric Games
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A twin guard-inmate dilemma (twin GID) is an asymmetric game that breaks FDT. [Image: GPT Image-1] 0. Introduction TL;DR: FDT and UDT diverge in how they handle "behave as you would have ideally precommitted to behaving" in asymmetric games where a player is assigned a role after a deterministic clone is made. FDT up...
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Can We Change the Goals of a Toy RL Agent?
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<p><i>This post is a write-up of preliminary research in which I investigated whether we could intervene upon goals in a toy RL agent. Whilst I was unsuccessful in locating and retargeting a goal-directed reasoning capability, we found evidence of partially-retargetable goal-specific reflexes.</i></p><p><i>Produced as ...
This post is a write-up of preliminary research in which I investigated whether we could intervene upon goals in a toy RL agent. Whilst I was unsuccessful in locating and retargeting a goal-directed reasoning capability, we found evidence of partially-retargetable goal-specific reflexes. Produced as part of the ML Ali...
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Some reprogenetics-related projects you could help with
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<p><em><a href="https://berkeleygenomics.org/pdfs/Some_reprogenetics-related_projects_you_could_help_with.pdf">PDF version</a>. <a href="https://berkeleygenomics.org/articles/Some_reprogenetics-related_projects_you_could_help_with.html">berkeleygenomics.org</a>. <a href="https://x.com/BerkeleyGenomic/status/19343472741...
PDF version. berkeleygenomics.org. x.com. bluesky. This is a short miscellaneous list of projects that I think would help accelerate germline engineering. This isn't prioritized or comprehensive or anything—it's not the most important projects, but rather just some projects that have occurred to me. Happy to chat with...
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Risk Tokens: Economic Security in AI Safety
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<p>As intelligence and safety research continue to progress, I’ve been thinking more and more about how to create potential market dynamics that help with alignment and safer usage of AI. This feels especially important as we likely face cat and mouse games with frontier models pushing performance first and alignment/r...
As intelligence and safety research continue to progress, I’ve been thinking more and more about how to create potential market dynamics that help with alignment and safer usage of AI. This feels especially important as we likely face cat and mouse games with frontier models pushing performance first and alignment/red ...
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aligned-monetization-of-modern-dating
Aligned monetization of modern dating
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<p>In a sentence: Bid/donate/pay what you want upfront, held in escrow upon a successful outcome confirmed by all involved individuals. At payment time, you can change your bid/donation/payment based on your more-fully-informed evaluation of the dating app’s value.</p><p>I don’t have the time or particular interest, so...
In a sentence: Bid/donate/pay what you want upfront, held in escrow upon a successful outcome confirmed by all involved individuals. At payment time, you can change your bid/donation/payment based on your more-fully-informed evaluation of the dating app’s value. I don’t have the time or particular interest, so someone...
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<p>A while ago I saw a person in the comments to Scott Alexander's blog arguing that a superintelligent AI would not be able to do anything too weird and that "intelligence is not magic", hence it's Business As Usual.</p><p>Of course, in a purely technical sense, he's right. No matter how intelligent you are, you canno...
A while ago I saw a person in the comments to Scott Alexander's blog arguing that a superintelligent AI would not be able to do anything too weird and that "intelligence is not magic", hence it's Business As Usual. Of course, in a purely technical sense, he's right. No matter how intelligent you are, you cannot overri...
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