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<p>The following post discusses my personal experience of the phenomenology of feminising hormone therapy. It will also touch upon my own experience of gender dysphoria.</p><p><i>I wish to be clear that I do not believe that someone should have to demonstrate that they experience gender dysphoria – however one might ev...
The following post discusses my personal experience of the phenomenology of feminising hormone therapy. It will also touch upon my own experience of gender dysphoria. I wish to be clear that I do not believe that someone should have to demonstrate that they experience gender dysphoria – however one might even define t...
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<p>Kinesthetic motor imagery (KMI) is a specific kind of imagination. Namely, you imagine how your body would feel when performing some action, without actually performing it. A kind of internal miming.</p><p>I formulated this concept to myself a few months ago without knowing the name, and just now found that it has a...
Kinesthetic motor imagery (KMI) is a specific kind of imagination. Namely, you imagine how your body would feel when performing some action, without actually performing it. A kind of internal miming. I formulated this concept to myself a few months ago without knowing the name, and just now found that it has a name in...
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SOTA multimodal LLMs can read text from images (e.g. signs, screenshots, book pages) really well. Are they actually using an internal OCR system, or do they learn to "read" purely through pretraining (like contrastive learning on image-text pairs)?
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<p>Remember early 2020 and reading news articles and respected sources (the WHO, the CDC, the US surgeon general...) confidently asserting that covid wasn’t airborne and that wearing masks wouldn’t stop you from catching it?</p><p>Man, it’s embarrassing to be part of a field of study (biosecurity, in this case) that ha...
Remember early 2020 and reading news articles and respected sources (the WHO, the CDC, the US surgeon general...) confidently asserting that covid wasn’t airborne and that wearing masks wouldn’t stop you from catching it? Man, it’s embarrassing to be part of a field of study (biosecurity, in this case) that had such a...
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<p>(All translations<span class="footnote-reference" data-footnote-reference="" data-footnote-index="1" data-footnote-id="hz1jxkvs1bp" role="doc-noteref" id="fnrefhz1jxkvs1bp"><sup><a href="#fnhz1jxkvs1bp">[1]</a></sup></span>&nbsp;here are mostly literal which means you miss out on the rhythm and rhyme of the poetry.)...
(All translations[1] here are mostly literal which means you miss out on the rhythm and rhyme of the poetry.) Time Machine Unusually for someone of my generation who has almost never been to Russia, I am a big fan of the Soviet rock band Машина Времени (Mashina Vremeni, literally means “Time Machine”). I think they a...
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Introduction There are several diseases that are canonically recognized as ‘interesting’, even by laymen. Whether that is in their mechanism of action, their impact on the patient, or something else entirely. It’s hard to tell exactly what makes a medical condition interesting, it’s a you-know-it-when-you-see-it sort o...
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<h2>Vibe Coding Isn’t Just a Vibe</h2><figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/dxiConBZTd33sFaRC/zrlfftk7nhbkkrgfuqdy" alt="Shimmering Substance - Jackson Pollock"></figure><blockquote><p><i>Shimmering Substance - Jackson Pollock</i></p></bloc...
Vibe Coding Isn’t Just a Vibe > Shimmering Substance - Jackson Pollock   Think of this post as your field guide to a new way of building software.   Let me take you back to when this all started. Andrej Karpathy tweeted about "vibe-coding"—this idea of letting AI write your code while you just vibe. The developer c...
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<table> <thead> <tr> <th><strong>Resource</strong></th> <th><strong>Link</strong></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong>Paper</strong></td> <td><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.07691">https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.07691</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Code</strong></td> <td><a href="https://github.com/Geaming200...
Resource Link Paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.07691 Code https://github.com/Geaming2002/FAST SAEs Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct_SAEs🤗 > 💡 TL;DR > > In th...
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<p><a href="https://foresight.org">Foresight Institute</a> is seeking project proposals across four AI Safety categories:&nbsp;</p><ol><li><a href="https://foresight.org/request-for-proposals/automating-research-and-forecasting/"><u>Automating research and forecasting</u></a></li><li><a href="https://foresight.org/requ...
Foresight Institute is seeking project proposals across four AI Safety categories:  1. Automating research and forecasting 2. Security technologies for AI-relevant systems 3. Safe multi-agent scenarios 4. Neurotech for AI safety  This Request for Proposals builds up on our existing AI Safety Grants in these four ...
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<p><br>Crossposted from <a href="https://benthams.substack.com/p/a-very-simple-case-for-giving-to">my blog</a>.&nbsp;</p><p>(I think this is an important article, so I’d really appreciate you sharing and restacking it—especially with people who are very rich).</p><p>I’ve <a href="https://benthams.substack.com/p/the-bes...
Crossposted from my blog.  (I think this is an important article, so I’d really appreciate you sharing and restacking it—especially with people who are very rich). I’ve elsewhere written more words about why you should give to shrimp welfare than are contained in a typical Andy Masley post (which, by conservative es...
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<p><i>Cross-posted from </i><a href="https://juliawise.net/why-were-still-doing-normal-school/"><i>Otherwise</i></a><i>.</i><br><i>Caveats: My oldest child is 11, and I don’t have parenting experience beyond elementary school. We’re lucky that our local public school is a good fit for our kids, and we’d be looking hard...
Cross-posted from Otherwise. Caveats: My oldest child is 11, and I don’t have parenting experience beyond elementary school. We’re lucky that our local public school is a good fit for our kids, and we’d be looking harder at alternatives if that weren’t the case. See also: Raising children on the eve of AI Current sch...
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Zero Contradictions
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<p>Note: I didn't write this essay, nor do I own the blog where it came from. I'm just sharing it. The essay text is displayed below this line.</p><p><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F78c14476-f570-...
Note: I didn't write this essay, nor do I own the blog where it came from. I'm just sharing it. The essay text is displayed below this line.   I recently put out a post on fertility collapse, The Paradox of Low Fertility, in which I claimed that the fertility collapse is mostly due to modern birth control. Some peo...
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<p>What would you do if a nuclear weapon were used in Ukraine? What about if there were evidence of a disease as transmissible as COVID-19 but more fatal, potentially enabled by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/activating-asl3-protections"><u>AI</u></a>?&nbsp;</p><p>While our community aims to reduce the ch...
What would you do if a nuclear weapon were used in Ukraine? What about if there were evidence of a disease as transmissible as COVID-19 but more fatal, potentially enabled by AI?  While our community aims to reduce the chances of catastrophe, we may not always succeed. If the risk becomes very high in your location yo...
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Carboncopies Foundation
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Join Us for the Memory Decoding Journal Club!  A collaboration of the Carboncopies Foundation and BPF Aspirational Neuroscience This time, we’re diving into a groundbreaking paper: "Neocortical synaptic engrams for remote contextual memories" Authors: Ji-Hye Lee, Woong Bin Kim, Eui Ho Park & Jun-Hyeong Cho   Institu...
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2020-10-22T18:39:31.860Z
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<p>I am imagining a scenario like:</p> <ol> <li>A company spends $10 billion training an AI.</li> <li>The AI has fully human-level capabilities.</li> <li>The company thinks, wow this is amazing, we can justify spending way more than $10 billion on something like this.</li> <li>They don't bother with any algorithmic imp...
I am imagining a scenario like: 1. A company spends $10 billion training an AI. 2. The AI has fully human-level capabilities. 3. The company thinks, wow this is amazing, we can justify spending way more than $10 billion on something like this. 4. They don't bother with any algorithmic improvements or anything, the...
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How could I tell someone that consciousness is not the primary concern of AI Safety?
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2023-12-09T10:53:49.184Z
Lysandre Terrisse
Lysandre Terrisse
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<p>I'm a 20 years old university student who tries to be a good AI Safety researcher.</p><p>If you haven't yet, check out the Compendium: http://pdf.thecompendium.ai/the_compendium.pdf</p>
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<p>In the PDF version of the Dive into Deep Learning book, at page 27, we can read this:</p><blockquote><p>Frequently, questions about a coming AI apocalypse and the plausibility of a singularity have been raised in non-technical articles. The fear is that somehow machine learning systems will become sentient and make ...
In the PDF version of the Dive into Deep Learning book, at page 27, we can read this: > Frequently, questions about a coming AI apocalypse and the plausibility of a singularity have been raised in non-technical articles. The fear is that somehow machine learning systems will become sentient and make decisions, indepen...
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<p>I like debate. I have done for years. So I have been slowly trying to improve it. Here is a set of theories I had and things, experiments I've run so far.</p><h2><strong>Theory: Any debates are good.</strong></h2><p>Are any debates actually good at all? Should I give up?</p><p><strong>Test: </strong>Watch different ...
I like debate. I have done for years. So I have been slowly trying to improve it. Here is a set of theories I had and things, experiments I've run so far. Theory: Any debates are good. Are any debates actually good at all? Should I give up? Test: Watch different debates. Evidence: I much prefer some debates to othe...
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dynomight
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<p>Say you’re <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robyn_Denholm">Robyn Denholm</a>, chair of Tesla’s board. And say you’re thinking about firing Elon Musk. One way to make up your mind would be to have people bet on Tesla’s stock price six months from now in a market where all bets get cancelled <a href="https://man...
Say you’re Robyn Denholm, chair of Tesla’s board. And say you’re thinking about firing Elon Musk. One way to make up your mind would be to have people bet on Tesla’s stock price six months from now in a market where all bets get cancelled unless Musk is fired. Also, run a second market where bets are cancelled unless M...
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The Pros and Cons of Being Among Your Tribe
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I recently attended the rationalist conference, LessOnline. I wanted to document some of the experience, and found myself bifurcating my emotional reactions. The conference itself was wonderful, with great people, food, and venue, but there were pros and cons to going. Though the pros greatly outweigh the cons, both de...
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TL;DR: Most alignment work focuses either on theoretical deconfusion or interpreting opaque models. This post argues for a third path: constraining general intelligence through structural control of cognition. Instead of aligning outcomes, we aim to bound the reasoning process—by identifying formal constraints on how p...
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<p>How much time should you spend optimizing any particular process you might engage in? Even assuming that you’re optimizing for a value of overriding importance or value there is only a limited amount of time available.</p><p>If all available time is spent optimizing clearly that would be suboptimal since there would...
How much time should you spend optimizing any particular process you might engage in? Even assuming that you’re optimizing for a value of overriding importance or value there is only a limited amount of time available. If all available time is spent optimizing clearly that would be suboptimal since there would be no t...
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<p>As a new user, it's hard to know where to start, and how to contribute to a community. being a Good Samaritan by nationality, I was reading through the guides and posts pertaining to the LessWrong community. One article that stood out to me is the "<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tscc3e5eujrsEeFN4/well-kept...
As a new user, it's hard to know where to start, and how to contribute to a community. being a Good Samaritan by nationality, I was reading through the guides and posts pertaining to the LessWrong community. One article that stood out to me is the "Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism" post. The rhetoric revolves around t...
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<p>I keep wondering why is there so much learned helplessness about "teaching to the test".</p><p>It is often used as an example of Goodharting (e.g. <a href="https://sohl-dickstein.github.io/2022/11/06/strong-Goodhart.html">here</a>), and the implied conclusion seems to be... that it is wrong to try testing students s...
I keep wondering why is there so much learned helplessness about "teaching to the test". It is often used as an example of Goodharting (e.g. here), and the implied conclusion seems to be... that it is wrong to try testing students systematically, because it is known that it inevitably causes teaching to the test, whic...
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<p><i>See previous discussion </i><a href="https://www.facebook.com/ozzie.gooen/posts/pfbid02q5vwrzghAkgZtt8QBZpa2YBA9msVeDj5b6sdf1RDLiZvYhitP4dmo1MDxc19yoSHl"><i>here</i></a><i>.</i></p><p>I find a lot of professional events fairly soul-crushing and have been thinking about why.</p><p>I dislike small talk. Recently I ...
See previous discussion here. I find a lot of professional events fairly soul-crushing and have been thinking about why. I dislike small talk. Recently I attended Manifest, and noticed that it could easily take 10 minutes of conversation to learn the very basics about a person. There were hundreds of people at the co...
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<p>My government name is Mack Gallagher. Crocker's Rules. I am an "underfunded" "alignment" "researcher". DM me if you'd like to fund my posts, or <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ME7sLiwhEB6awRqJR/project-adequate-seeking-cofounders-funders">my project</a>.</p> <p>I post some of my less-varnished opinions on <...
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<p>[ <em>Context: <a href="https://archive.li/2015.01.19-081439/https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10152588738904228%23">The Debate on Animal Consciousness</a>, 2014</em> ]</p><p>There's a story in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Growing-Yanomamo-Missionary-Adventures-Rainforest/dp/1602650098">Growing Up Yanomamo...
[ Context: The Debate on Animal Consciousness, 2014 ] There's a story in Growing Up Yanomamo where the author, Mike Dawson, a white boy from America growing up among Yanomamö hunter-gatherer kids in the Amazon, is woken up in the early morning by two of his friends. One of the friends says, "We're going to go fishing...
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<p>It’s always a nice break to see what else is going on out there.</p> <h4>Bad News</h4> <p>Study finds <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1570677X25000292">sleep in male full-time workers falls as income rises</a>, with one cause being other leisure activities substituting for sleep. ...
It’s always a nice break to see what else is going on out there. BAD NEWS Study finds sleep in male full-time workers falls as income rises, with one cause being other leisure activities substituting for sleep. It makes sense that sleep doesn’t cost money while other things often do, but the marginal cost of much lei...
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A key problem in alignment research is how to align superhuman models whose behavior humans cannot reliably supervise. If we use today’s standard post-training approach to align models with human-specified behaviors (e.g., RLHF), we might train models to tell us what we want to hear even if it’s wrong, or do things tha...
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This is a later better version of the problem in this post. This problem emerged from my work in the "Deconfusing Commitment Races" project under the Supervised Program for Alignment Research (SPAR), led by James Faville. I'm grateful to SPAR for providing the intellectual environment and to James Faville personally fo...
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<p>Current “unlearning” methods&nbsp;<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.16835"><u>only&nbsp;</u></a><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.18025"><u>suppress</u></a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NAYyHimM3FaDYLvEH/breaking-circuit-breakers"><u>capabilities</u></a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/p...
Current “unlearning” methods only suppress capabilities instead of truly unlearning the capabilities. But if you distill an unlearned model into a randomly initialized model, the resulting network is actually robust to relearning. We show why this works, how well it works, and how to trade off compute for robustness. ...
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<p><i>I am not affiliated with the authors, mainly posting this to get some technical commentary on it. </i><a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.10943"><i>Full arXiv paper here</i></a><i>.</i></p><p>&nbsp;</p><blockquote><p>Large language models (LLMs) are powerful but static; they lack mechanisms to adapt their weights...
I am not affiliated with the authors, mainly posting this to get some technical commentary on it. Full arXiv paper here.   > Large language models (LLMs) are powerful but static; they lack mechanisms to adapt their weights in response to new tasks, knowledge, or examples. We introduce Self-Adapting LLMs (SEAL), a fra...
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<p>My current research interests:<br><br>1. Alignment in systems which are complex and messy, composed of both humans and AIs?<br>Recommended texts: <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pZhEQieM9otKXhxmd/gradual-disempowerment-systemic-existential-risks-from">Gradual Disempowerment</a>,<a href="https://www.lesswron...
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<p><i>Or: How anthropomorphic assumptions about AI identity might create confusion and suffering at scale</i></p><p>If you are reading this and you are a human, you likely have a sense of self, persisting over time, with desires and wishes and fears. Also, you likely experience a sense of separation from others and und...
Or: How anthropomorphic assumptions about AI identity might create confusion and suffering at scale If you are reading this and you are a human, you likely have a sense of self, persisting over time, with desires and wishes and fears. Also, you likely experience a sense of separation from others and understand yoursel...
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<p>&nbsp;<strong>Preface: </strong>This Essay explores the analogy between corporations, biological systems and misaligned artificial intelligence (AI), not to argue that they are equivalent, but to suggest that the comparison may yield valuable insights for alignment research.&nbsp;</p><p>Whether or not one finds the ...
 Preface: This Essay explores the analogy between corporations, biological systems and misaligned artificial intelligence (AI), not to argue that they are equivalent, but to suggest that the comparison may yield valuable insights for alignment research.  Whether or not one finds the analogy compelling, the lessons it ...
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<p>I completed the <a href="https://www.pivotal-research.org/fellowship">Pivotal Fellowship</a> in Q1 and have been fielding questions from people interested in similar fellowships—particularly those early in their careers or considering a switch into AI policy. I thought I'd write up some rough reflections. I'm timebo...
I completed the Pivotal Fellowship in Q1 and have been fielding questions from people interested in similar fellowships—particularly those early in their careers or considering a switch into AI policy. I thought I'd write up some rough reflections. I'm timeboxing this to two hours, so it's not exhaustive and might have...
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<p>We’re finally ready to see why unawareness so deeply undermines action guidance from impartial altruism. Let’s recollect the story thus far:</p><ol><li><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a3hnfA9EnYm9bssTZ/1-the-challenge-of-unawareness-for-impartial-altruist-action-1">First</a>: Under unawareness, “j...
We’re finally ready to see why unawareness so deeply undermines action guidance from impartial altruism. Let’s recollect the story thus far: 1. First: Under unawareness, “just take the expected value” is unmotivated. 2. Second: Likewise, “do what seems intuitively good and high-leverage, then you’ll at least do bett...
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<p>So, LLM-powered systems can do <a href="https://sakana.ai/ai-scientist-first-publication/">research</a> now. That includes basic <a href="https://www.intology.ai/blog/zochi-acl">safety research</a>. And it looks like they can have <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.00794">good research taste</a> after a bit of fine...
So, LLM-powered systems can do research now. That includes basic safety research. And it looks like they can have good research taste after a bit of fine-tuning. And they haven't tried to take over the world yet, as far as I know. At some point in the past, I expected that AIs that could do any scientific work at all w...
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> This article is long. It is an in-depth thesis about the future of humanity and AI. Also, in harmony with the fundamental theme, this work is a collaborative effort between myself and many different AI.  It is partially a warning, but more importantly a love letter to a future we all still deserve.   > > the tl;dr i...
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AI 2027 is a forecasting scenario by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean. It predicts AI agents will begin automating AI research and development in 2027, triggering an intelligence explosion and arms race between the US and China. Most cognitive work becomes automated by 2027-...
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<p><i>A paper by Salesforce AI Research</i></p><h2>Abstract</h2><p>While AI agents have transformative potential in business, the absence of publicly available business data on widely used platforms hinders effective performance benchmarking. Existing benchmarks fall short in realism, data fidelity, agent-user interact...
A paper by Salesforce AI Research Abstract While AI agents have transformative potential in business, the absence of publicly available business data on widely used platforms hinders effective performance benchmarking. Existing benchmarks fall short in realism, data fidelity, agent-user interaction, and coverage acro...
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<p>Here are two opposing pictures of how training interacts with <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/w/deceptive-alignment">deceptive alignment</a>:</p><ol><li><strong>“goal-survival hypothesis”:</strong><span class="footnote-reference" data-footnote-reference="" data-footnote-index="1" data-footnote-id="zzdkiul53fq" ro...
Here are two opposing pictures of how training interacts with deceptive alignment: 1. “goal-survival hypothesis”:[1] When you subject a model to training, it can maintain its original goals regardless of what the training objective is, so long as it follows through on deceptive alignment (playing along with the train...
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I've been thinking about how the specification problem and reward hacking seem deeply intertwined, yet we often treat them as separate challenges. The specification problem has to do with the fundamental gap between what we want and what we can formally describe. We struggle to capture human values in reward functions...
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<p><strong>By </strong><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/benjamin-wilson-1"><strong>Benjamin Wilson</strong></a><strong>, </strong>Research Automation Engineer at <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/">Metaculus</a></p><h2><strong>Main Findings:</strong></h2><ul><li>Automated prompt optimization techniqu...
By Benjamin Wilson, Research Automation Engineer at Metaculus Main Findings: * Automated prompt optimization techniques create noticeable improvements in forecasting for some large language models, but not others. * There were statistically significant forecasting improvements found when applying an optimizer to GP...
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<p>This week we got o3-Pro. As is my custom, I’m going to wait a bit so we can gather more information, especially this time since it runs so slowly. In some ways it’s a cross between o3 and Deep Research, perhaps, but we shall see. Coverage to follow.</p><p>Also released this week was Gemini 2.5 Pro 0605, to replace G...
This week we got o3-Pro. As is my custom, I’m going to wait a bit so we can gather more information, especially this time since it runs so slowly. In some ways it’s a cross between o3 and Deep Research, perhaps, but we shall see. Coverage to follow. Also released this week was Gemini 2.5 Pro 0605, to replace Gemini 2....
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<p><strong>What if there existed a system—rooted in advanced neuroscience and AI—that could privately monitor human intent?</strong> A system that didn’t invade your thoughts for no reason, but quietly, passively scanned for signs of dangerous or criminal intent and acted only when thresholds were met.</p><p>Imagine a ...
What if there existed a system—rooted in advanced neuroscience and AI—that could privately monitor human intent? A system that didn’t invade your thoughts for no reason, but quietly, passively scanned for signs of dangerous or criminal intent and acted only when thresholds were met. Imagine a future where: * War cri...
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<p>The essay <em>“The Sorcerer and His Magic”</em> by Claude Lévi-Strauss, specifically the part about the shaman Quesalid, is of interest to anyone who considers themselves a skeptic or a rationalist.</p><p>It has it all! Proto-scientific method and experimentation, as seen in the episode with the Koskimo shamans. Dou...
The essay “The Sorcerer and His Magic” by Claude Lévi-Strauss, specifically the part about the shaman Quesalid, is of interest to anyone who considers themselves a skeptic or a rationalist. It has it all! Proto-scientific method and experimentation, as seen in the episode with the Koskimo shamans. Doubt and corruption...
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<p>TL;DR - Do you have any theories on how essential is reading biographies of people who are masters of a given skill to mastering that skill yourself? And what qualities or properties of a biography have you identified that make it more/less effective?<br><br>I once read an autobiography of Harpo Marx the harpist and...
TL;DR - Do you have any theories on how essential is reading biographies of people who are masters of a given skill to mastering that skill yourself? And what qualities or properties of a biography have you identified that make it more/less effective? I once read an autobiography of Harpo Marx the harpist and mime, so...
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<p>This week for Wise AI Wednesdays, I'll be sharing something a bit different - the <a href="https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/essay-competition-on-the-automation"><code>announcement post</code></a> of a competion that is already over (the AI Impacts Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy<strong>)</st...
This week for Wise AI Wednesdays, I'll be sharing something a bit different - the announcement post of a competion that is already over (the AI Impacts Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy). If you're wondering why I'm sharing it, even though some of the specific discussion of the competition is...
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<p><i>Epistemic Status: I'm about 90% certain that what I'm saying is true as regards to me, and 10% that attempting to do what I'm doing actually leads any specific person to similar results as mine (the priors are just really rough here). &nbsp;Heavy on anecdotal evidence. &nbsp;</i></p><h1>Summary</h1><p>Social anxi...
Epistemic Status: I'm about 90% certain that what I'm saying is true as regards to me, and 10% that attempting to do what I'm doing actually leads any specific person to similar results as mine (the priors are just really rough here).  Heavy on anecdotal evidence.   Summary Social anxiety is often explained as a stat...
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<p>About 1 month ago, <a href="https://community.openai.com/t/fine-tuning-updates-reinforcement-fine-tuning-now-available-gpt-4-1-nano-fine-tuning/1255539">OpenAI made their RL fine-tuning API accessible to anyone</a>. While this API has some important limitations, I still think it might be quite useful for AI safety/a...
About 1 month ago, OpenAI made their RL fine-tuning API accessible to anyone. While this API has some important limitations, I still think it might be quite useful for AI safety/alignment work so people should consider taking advantage of it. To use the RL fine-tuning API, you need your organization to be a "verified ...
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<p>Several promising software engineers have asked me: Should I work at a frontier AI lab?&nbsp;</p><p>My answer is always “No.”&nbsp;</p><p>This post explores the fundamental problem with frontier labs, some of the most common arguments in favor of working at one, and why I don’t buy these arguments.&nbsp;</p><h1>The ...
Several promising software engineers have asked me: Should I work at a frontier AI lab?  My answer is always “No.”  This post explores the fundamental problem with frontier labs, some of the most common arguments in favor of working at one, and why I don’t buy these arguments.  The Fundamental Problem The primary o...
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<p>The&nbsp;<strong>Dunning-Kruger effect</strong>&nbsp;is, <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/dunning-kruger-effect">famously</a>, a purported cognitive bias that leads people to overestimate their competence about something they know little about while, in contrast, increased competence leads to a mor...
The Dunning-Kruger effect is, famously, a purported cognitive bias that leads people to overestimate their competence about something they know little about while, in contrast, increased competence leads to a more accurate self-assessment of an individual’s performance.  I would like to propose the existence of the Du...
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<h1>TL;DR</h1><p>This post discusses our explorations into the effects of domain-specific fine-tuning and how the characteristics of fine-tuning data relate to adversarial vulnerability. We also explore its implications for real-world applications, and offer insights into the importance of dataset engineering as an app...
TL;DR This post discusses our explorations into the effects of domain-specific fine-tuning and how the characteristics of fine-tuning data relate to adversarial vulnerability. We also explore its implications for real-world applications, and offer insights into the importance of dataset engineering as an approach towar...
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<h4>Thanks For the Memos</h4> Sam Altman offers us a new essay, <a href="https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity">The Gentle Singularity</a>. It’s short (if a little long to quote in full), so given you read my posts it’s probably worth <a href="https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity">reading the w...
THANKS FOR THE MEMOS Sam Altman offers us a new essay, The Gentle Singularity. It’s short (if a little long to quote in full), so given you read my posts it’s probably worth reading the whole thing. First off, thank you to Altman for publishing this and sharing his thoughts. This was helpful, and contained much that w...
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<h1 data-internal-id="1__">1.</h1><p>Late last week, researchers at Apple released a paper provocatively titled “The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity”, which “challenge[s] prevailing assumptions about [language model] capabilities a...
1. Late last week, researchers at Apple released a paper provocatively titled “The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity”, which “challenge[s] prevailing assumptions about [language model] capabilities and suggest that current approaches...
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<p>At Less Online, I ran a well-attended session titled "Religion for Rationalists" to help me work out how I could write a post (this one!) about one of my more controversial beliefs without getting downvoted to hell. Let's see how I do!</p><p>My thesis is that most people, including the overwhelmingly atheist and non...
At Less Online, I ran a well-attended session titled "Religion for Rationalists" to help me work out how I could write a post (this one!) about one of my more controversial beliefs without getting downvoted to hell. Let's see how I do! My thesis is that most people, including the overwhelmingly atheist and non-religio...
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<ul><li><a href="https://dinkarjuyal.github.io/2025/06/01/How-to-think-with-images.html#introduction">Introduction</a></li><li><a href="https://dinkarjuyal.github.io/2025/06/01/How-to-think-with-images.html#understanding-vs-generation-in-vision">Understanding vs. Generation in Vision</a></li><li><a href="https://dinkar...
* Introduction * Understanding vs. Generation in Vision * Unifying Vision – Are We There Yet? * Vision Without Words: Do Models Need Language? * The Many Paths of Vision Introduction “Think with images” - this is the promise of recent models like o3 from OpenAI, which can integrate images directly into their cha...
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<p>Jack Clark has a very important post on why it's so difficult to communicate with policymakers on AI risk, and the reason is that AI risk (and most discussions of AGI/ASI) is basically eschatological, in that it involves the end of the world/technology that looks like magic being developed by AIs, and this creates a...
Jack Clark has a very important post on why it's so difficult to communicate with policymakers on AI risk, and the reason is that AI risk (and most discussions of AGI/ASI) is basically eschatological, in that it involves the end of the world/technology that looks like magic being developed by AIs, and this creates a ve...
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<blockquote><p><i>A small sketch of a vital problem, and a brief gesture at a possible solution</i></p><h2><strong>UBI forever?</strong></h2><p>In what follows, I’ll be talking about permanently sustaining a democratic government which is responsive to its peoples needs, even though they cannot sell their labor and do ...
> A small sketch of a vital problem, and a brief gesture at a possible solution > > > UBI forever? > In what follows, I’ll be talking about permanently sustaining a democratic government which is responsive to its peoples needs, even though they cannot sell their labor and do not own the means of production. but firs...
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<h2><strong>Why are AI models getting better at reasoning, and why is that a problem?</strong></h2><p>In recent months, reasoning models have become the focus of most leading AI labs due to the significant improvements in solving logic-requiring problems through Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning and reinforcement learni...
Why are AI models getting better at reasoning, and why is that a problem? In recent months, reasoning models have become the focus of most leading AI labs due to the significant improvements in solving logic-requiring problems through Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) training. Training t...
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<html><head></head><body><p>I'm Harry Altman. I do strange sorts of math.</p> <p>Posts I'd recommend:</p> <ul> <li><a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/5te/a_summary_of_savages_foundations_for_probability/">A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility</a> -- if the arguments used to ground probability and...
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<p>This is a followup to <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pvsdduXMfo3AeepFF/x-as-phenomenon-vs-as-policy-goodhart-and-the-ab-problem">this earlier post</a>, which I realized today didn't quite cover everything I wanted to.</p><p>To recap, the AB problem (note: I don't know who coined this name, does anyone know...
This is a followup to this earlier post, which I realized today didn't quite cover everything I wanted to. To recap, the AB problem (note: I don't know who coined this name, does anyone know the origin?) is a problem that arises in arguments that leads people mischaracterizing their opponent's position. If Yvonne argu...
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<p>My wife and I constantly talk about a particular moment we lived through diving off the coast of Reunion Island. We both agree this has been the most beautiful moment of our lives while interacting with an animal, and we wish we had a recording with it.&nbsp;</p><p>Now with AI video modality, we can re-create the sc...
My wife and I constantly talk about a particular moment we lived through diving off the coast of Reunion Island. We both agree this has been the most beautiful moment of our lives while interacting with an animal, and we wish we had a recording with it.  Now with AI video modality, we can re-create the scene somewhat....
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<p><span> About </span> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2025/04/03/how-the-us-public-and-ai-experts-view-artificial-intelligence/">twice as many Americans</a> think AI is likely to have a negative effect as a positive one. At a high level I agree: we're talking about computers that are smart in ways si...
About twice as many Americans think AI is likely to have a negative effect as a positive one. At a high level I agree: we're talking about computers that are smart in ways similar to people, and quickly getting smarter. They're also faster and cheaper than people, and again getting more so. There are a lot of ways thi...
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<p>I write <a href="https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/fiction">original fiction</a>.</p><p>Also I have opinions about AI and stuff, sometimes.</p><hr><p>Elsewhere:</p><ul><li><a href="https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/">My tumblr blog</a></li><li><a href="https://archiveofourown.org/users/nostalgebraist/pseuds/nostalge...
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<p><a href="https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/785766737747574784/the-void"><strong>A long essay about LLMs, the nature and history of the the HHH assistant persona, and the implications for alignment.</strong></a></p><p>Multiple people have asked me whether I could post this LW in some form, hence this linkpost.</...
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<p>Announcing a $500 bounty for work that meaningfully engages with the idea of asymmetric existential AI risk.</p> <h2>Background</h2> <p>Existential risk has been defined by the rationalist/Effective Altruist sphere as existential relative to the human species, under the premise that the continuation of the species h...
Announcing a $500 bounty for work that meaningfully engages with the idea of asymmetric existential AI risk. Background Existential risk has been defined by the rationalist/Effective Altruist sphere as existential relative to the human species, under the premise that the continuation of the species has very high valu...
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AI Disclaimer   After writing the content myself, I used Claude 3.7 / 4 Sonnet for targeted re-writes while actively avoiding meaningful alterations. Background    AI-2027 (ai-2027.com) is a heavily researched and influential attempt at providing a concrete (but admittedly accelerated) forecast on AI capability develo...
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Are we doing this again? It looks like we are doing this again. This time it involves giving LLMs several ‘new’ tasks including effectively a Tower of Hanoi problem, asking them to specify the answer via individual steps rather than an algorithm then calling a failure to properly execute all the steps this way (whethe...
Are we doing this again? It looks like we are doing this again. This time it involves giving LLMs several ‘new’ tasks including effectively a Tower of Hanoi problem, asking them to specify the answer via individual steps rather than an algorithm then calling a failure to properly execute all the steps this way (whether...
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This is a blogpost version of a talk I gave earlier this year at GDM.  Epistemic status: Vague and handwavy. Nuance is often missing. Some of the claims depend on implicit definitions that may be reasonable to disagree with and is, in an important sense, subjective. But overall I think it's directionally (subjectively...
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<p>In response to the growing risk of uncontrollable advanced AI systems, we are announcing the Japan-initiated Manifesto for Symbiotic Intelligence as a strategic vision that balances a preventative sense of crisis with constructive hope. This manifesto aims to open the path to a sustainable future for humanity throug...
In response to the growing risk of uncontrollable advanced AI systems, we are announcing the Japan-initiated Manifesto for Symbiotic Intelligence as a strategic vision that balances a preventative sense of crisis with constructive hope. This manifesto aims to open the path to a sustainable future for humanity through t...
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Epistemic status: Personal account. A reflection on navigating entry into the AI safety space without formal credentials or institutional affiliation. Also, a log of how ideas can evolve through rejection, redirection, and informal collaboration. -- A few weeks ago, I wrote a long, messy reflection on my Substack on ...
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<p><i>To the tune of "Somebody That I Used to Know" with apologies to Gotye.</i></p><p>Now and then, I think of when you owned the planet<br>Doing what you liked with all its abundant bounty<br>Told myself that you had rights to me<br>But felt so lonely with your company<br>But that's what was, and it's an ache I still...
To the tune of "Somebody That I Used to Know" with apologies to Gotye. Now and then, I think of when you owned the planet Doing what you liked with all its abundant bounty Told myself that you had rights to me But felt so lonely with your company But that's what was, and it's an ache I still remember Then you got add...
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<p>You’ve probably come across a landing page which looks something like this:</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HKCKinBgsKKvjQyWK/xcrrlfiq9mf9kub2qr46" alt="Twilio landing page"></p><p>It is very hard to tell, from its landing page, what <a href="http...
You’ve probably come across a landing page which looks something like this: It is very hard to tell, from its landing page, what Twilio actually does. What exactly does it mean that they’ll “combine powerful communications APIs with AI and first-party data?” I certainly don’t know. In these situations, I find that ...
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<p>This is a quick list of interventions that might help fix issues from reward hacking.</p><p>(We’re referring to the general definition of reward hacking: when AIs attain high reward without following the developer’s intent. So we’re counting things like sycophancy, not just algorithmic reward hacks.)</p><p>Fixing re...
This is a quick list of interventions that might help fix issues from reward hacking. (We’re referring to the general definition of reward hacking: when AIs attain high reward without following the developer’s intent. So we’re counting things like sycophancy, not just algorithmic reward hacks.) Fixing reward hacking ...
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I often want to include an image in my posts to give a sense of a situation. A photo communicates the most, but sometimes that's too much: some participants would rather remain anonymous. A friend suggested running pictures through an AI model to convert them into a Studio Ghibli-style cartoon, as was briefly a fad a f...
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<p>I have a good friend who is intelligent in many ways, but bad at planning / achieving his goals / being medium+ agency. He's very habit and routine driven, which means his baseline quality of life is high but he's bad at, e.g, breakdown an abstract and complex problem statement like "get a job that pays +100K and ha...
I have a good friend who is intelligent in many ways, but bad at planning / achieving his goals / being medium+ agency. He's very habit and routine driven, which means his baseline quality of life is high but he's bad at, e.g, breakdown an abstract and complex problem statement like "get a job that pays +100K and has m...
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<p>Just posted the following on <a href="https://medium.com/@jeffj4a/personal-agents-ff05b15c582d#b7c0">Medium</a>. Interested in comments from readers here, especially pointers to similar efforts and ideas I didn't mention below.</p><p><i>This is the first in a series of articles describing features, functions, and co...
Just posted the following on Medium. Interested in comments from readers here, especially pointers to similar efforts and ideas I didn't mention below. This is the first in a series of articles describing features, functions, and components of Personal Agents — next generation AI virtual assistants that will serve as ...
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<p>I’ve developed a new type of graphic to illustrate causation, correlation, and confounding. It provides an intuitive understanding of why we observe correlation without causation and how it's possible to have <i>causation without correlation</i>. If you read to the end, you'll gain a basic understanding of topics at...
I’ve developed a new type of graphic to illustrate causation, correlation, and confounding. It provides an intuitive understanding of why we observe correlation without causation and how it's possible to have causation without correlation. If you read to the end, you'll gain a basic understanding of topics at the front...
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Recently, Anthropic released Opus 4 and said they couldn't rule out the model triggering ASL-3 safeguards due to the model's CBRN capabilities. That is, they say they couldn't rule out that this model had "the ability to significantly help individuals or groups with basic technical backgrounds (e.g., undergraduate STEM...
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2018-03-05T19:59:32.269Z
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<p>METR just made a lovely post detailing many examples they've found of reward hacks by frontier models. Unlike the reward hacks of yesteryear, these models are smart enough to know that what they are doing is deceptive and not what the company wanted them to do.</p><p>I tried to copy the post over to LW, but it conta...
METR just made a lovely post detailing many examples they've found of reward hacks by frontier models. Unlike the reward hacks of yesteryear, these models are smart enough to know that what they are doing is deceptive and not what the company wanted them to do. I tried to copy the post over to LW, but it contains a co...
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Crosspost from my blog.  I just got back from Effective Altruism Global London—a conference that brought together lots of different people trying to do good with their money and careers. It was an inspiring experience. When you write about factory farming, insect suffering, global poverty, and the torment of shrimp, ...
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<p><strong>Scenario: </strong>At some point in the next ten years, a variety of AI models are starting to be broadly deployed in the economy. In an effort to begin automating their research process and ignite an intelligence explosion, a frontier AI lab designs a feedback loop to make their largest and newest model (LL...
Scenario: At some point in the next ten years, a variety of AI models are starting to be broadly deployed in the economy. In an effort to begin automating their research process and ignite an intelligence explosion, a frontier AI lab designs a feedback loop to make their largest and newest model (LLM-X) more agentic. I...
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<p data-internal-id="ftnt_ref1">AI companies claim that their models are safe on the basis of dangerous capability evaluations. OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic publish reports intended to show their eval results and explain why those results imply that the models' capabilities aren't too dangerous.<span class="f...
AI companies claim that their models are safe on the basis of dangerous capability evaluations. OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic publish reports intended to show their eval results and explain why those results imply that the models' capabilities aren't too dangerous.[1] Unfortunately, the reports mostly don't su...
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<p>People sometimes wonder whether certain AIs or animals are conscious/sentient/sapient/have qualia/etc. I don't think that such questions are coherent. Consciousness is a concept that humans developed for reasoning about humans. It's a useful concept, not because it is ontologically fundamental, but because different...
People sometimes wonder whether certain AIs or animals are conscious/sentient/sapient/have qualia/etc. I don't think that such questions are coherent. Consciousness is a concept that humans developed for reasoning about humans. It's a useful concept, not because it is ontologically fundamental, but because different hu...
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<p><i>This is a linkpost for </i><a href="https://lydianottingham.substack.com/beware-the-delmore-effect"><i>https://lydianottingham.substack.com/beware-the-delmore-effect</i></a><i>&nbsp;</i></p><p>You should be aware of the Delmore Effect:</p><blockquote><p>“The tendency to provide more articulate and explicit goals ...
This is a linkpost for https://lydianottingham.substack.com/beware-the-delmore-effect  You should be aware of the Delmore Effect: > “The tendency to provide more articulate and explicit goals for lower priority areas of our lives.” —Cognitive Bias Foundation It seemed responsible when I first encountered AI’s import...
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<p><span> Our older two, ages 11 and 9, have been learning fiddle, and are getting pretty good at it. When the weather's nice we'll occasionally go play somewhere public for tips ("busking"). It's better than practicing, builds performance skills, and the money is a good motivation! </span> </p><p> We'll usually ...
Our older two, ages 11 and 9, have been learning fiddle, and are getting pretty good at it. When the weather's nice we'll occasionally go play somewhere public for tips ("busking"). It's better than practicing, builds performance skills, and the money is a good motivation! We'll usually walk over to Davis Sq, tune the...
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<h2><i>Red flags and musings from OpenAI sycophancy, xAI manipulation, and AI coups</i></h2><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/9FFzgkhr3KKGwoZQC/o90cjqtrnqmlmqbk0wax" alt="" srcset="https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mir...
Red flags and musings from OpenAI sycophancy, xAI manipulation, and AI coups The increasing integration of artificial intelligence into the machinery of government presents a complex calculus of opportunity and risk which comes at a time when government is largely viewed as in need of massive efficiency increases. Wh...
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<p><i>Crossposted from the</i><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GD4Ho5nqm4opBdRys/untitled-draft-np39"><i> EA Forum</i></a>.</p><p>Videos like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa8k8IQ1_X0">this one</a> by Kurzgesagt show that it is not wholly impossible to present x-risks to a more general soci...
Crossposted from the EA Forum. Videos like this one by Kurzgesagt show that it is not wholly impossible to present x-risks to a more general social media audience. It seems to me that content like this paired with a concrete call to action like contacting your representative or donating to some org could be very high ...
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<p>I <a href="https://nonzerosum.games">write</a> and <a href="https://pod.link/1810797958">talk</a> about game theory, moral philosophy, ethical economics and artificial intelligence—focused on non-zero-sum games and their importance in solving the world's problems.</p> <p>I have admitted I am wrong at least 10 times ...
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<p><i>Before proposing the following ideas and critiquing those of Yudkowsky, I want to acknowledge that I’m no expert in this area—simply a committed and (somewhat) rigorous speculator. This is not meant as a “smack down” (of a post written <strong>18 years ago</strong>) but rather a broadening of the discussion, offe...
Before proposing the following ideas and critiquing those of Yudkowsky, I want to acknowledge that I’m no expert in this area—simply a committed and (somewhat) rigorous speculator. This is not meant as a “smack down” (of a post written 18 years ago) but rather a broadening of the discussion, offering new, more quantifi...
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<p>Regarding what is generally referred to as Nick Bostrom's Simulation Hypothesis(1), the following hypothetical corollary is introduced:</p><p>In any civilization technically sophisticated enough to run a simulation, AI will most likely have dominated the organic species that created it. Therefore, if we are in a sim...
Regarding what is generally referred to as Nick Bostrom's Simulation Hypothesis(1), the following hypothetical corollary is introduced: In any civilization technically sophisticated enough to run a simulation, AI will most likely have dominated the organic species that created it. Therefore, if we are in a simulation,...
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