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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165703 | [S1] be open about it and say, "This can only work if, in fact, there is incredible collaboration, even at the very top." That's a message that I love about the role of CEOs and what they can do for their business. [S2] It also has this virtue, which is, otherwise you run a runoff. [S1] Yeah. [S2] There's two candidates, or there's three or four candidates or whatever, and then, like, these people have to leave, basically. [S1] Yeah. [S2] Because you didn't win the runoff, and then you have to go somewhere else, and you lose somebody | 27.76 | 3.535485 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165703.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165704 | [S1] who's really fantastic. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And it's not really clear that's a dominant outcome. If you have two people who are spectacular, why put your chips on one? Why force one out and lose that talent? [S2] Yeah. [S1] So it's not a very common practice, but it does strike me as a really interesting way to send a message to the organization, as you said as well, that responsibility is joint, that we are in this together. I think that's also an interesting piece of this. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And of course, when it all flames out, | 26.44 | 2.827077 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165704.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165706 | [S1] Yes. So you saw the news. Now India is going to have a larger population than China, but maybe even more important than that, in all expectation, the Indian economy will grow more quickly than the Chinese economy. So expectations are around 5-7% or so. By 2027, in all likelihood, the Indian economy will be larger than, say, the Japanese economy or the German economy. [S2] Right. [S1] That alone is really interesting. Driven, I think, by three types of | 29.88 | 3.504228 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165706.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165707 | [S1] What is your view? [S2] I'm so glad you brought this up, 'cause I too am dying to talk to you about it, because as somebody who thinks about India and who loves India, it's sometimes hard to get that detachment. And in fact, Felix, we've rarely talked about India in the podcast. [S1] That's true, yeah. [S2] So, as you're suggesting, it's a little bit of a tale of two stories. So, the optimistic case is so spectacular. [S1] Mm-hmm. [S2] And relates to things you said, but it relates to something even, I think, deeper, which is we've had, historically, over the last decade, | 26.4 | 3.395428 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165707.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165708 | [S1] ... relatively strong reported growth. We have underlying demographics in India that are remarkable. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] So as we've talked about, there's much of the world that's aging and declining in population, and you have a remarkable demographic burst in India that could pay off in all kinds of ways. You have this remarkable effort that the government has pioneered on digitization, that | 24.48 | 3.416522 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165708.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165709 | [S1] is really something else. [S2] Yeah. [S1] They have created a digital platform for all citizens that's underlying this idea of Adahar, which is this unique number, but it goes to the payment system, it goes to the way they do tax collections now. So they've invested hugely in this thing. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] There's even more, which is there are more unicorns in India than anywhere else other than China and the US. So we have, for a long time, not seen entrepreneurial growth in India. And in the last five years, we've started to see these unicorns | 29.88 | 3.323637 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165709.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165710 | [S1] All of this is giving rise to just remarkable amounts of pride. And then you put into that context, Felix, all the things you said, more outsourcing, more potential for manufacturing. And you can get really, really excited about India. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And yet, and yet, and yet. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] And so it is complicated, 'cause India's complicated. So what is the complication? So the first complication is, so much of India's growth | 27.88 | 3.304609 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165710.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165711 | [S1] And much of the future is predicated on the idea of services. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And services have been a part of India's success in the last 15 years, especially technology companies like TCS and Infosys. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] But the reality remains, from an employment perspective, they are small fry. And | 17.16 | 3.199926 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165711.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165712 | [S1] One big issue that you just have to confront is, can a country of India's size succeed without manufacturing, without a relatively labor-intensive base? [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And for the last 15 years, people said, "Oh, we don't really need manufacturing." And the answer is, that's wrong. I think you need manufacturing going forward. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] You need manufacturing in the employment base to actually spread and distribute that wealth and to have it go beyond metropolises. And you just can't have 100, 200, 300 million people involved | 29.44 | 3.46589 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165712.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165713 | [S1] In tech services. It's, it's just not gonna happen, especially with educational levels being what they are. So the first big question mark is, can you do it without manufacturing? And the answer is probably no. But then maybe that's the promise. With China becoming more complicated, perhaps, from a manufacturing base, that's all the more reason- [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] ... Felix, to believe in India, because manufacturers will take off. And then the answer is, yeah. And yet, and yet, and yet. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] People have been talking about that. What that requires is remarkable infrastructure. | 28 | 3.401537 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165713.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165714 | [S1] Which India is, I think, still short on. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] So if you look at what happened in China, there had to be a remarkable growth in infrastructure to allow for that kind of manufacturing and to be the manufacturing base for the world, number one. And number two, | 14.44 | 3.258564 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165714.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165715 | [S1] That manufacturing base grew up at a time when global trade was growing, when everybody wanted to outsource manufacturing everywhere. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And I'm not sure the timing is the same. And then the final thing I'll say, Felix, is the big puzzle to me beneath all of this is you look at the aggregate data, it says what it says. But the really tough story here is in the corporate sector, | 22.52 | 3.396346 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165715.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165716 | [S1] And the answer to that is largely no. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] So you can think about TCS and maybe Infosys. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] But they're not innovating products in a tremendous way. They're not providing technology in the way we would think about. Their business model has remained the same, very successful. But we have not seen the emergence of a world-class Indian company that is taking on the rest of the world in a large way. The ones that we have seen, like Reliance, which is a remarkable story. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Like Adani, up until two months ago. [S2] [LAUGHS] | 29.44 | 3.331714 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165716.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165717 | [S1] ago. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Have focused on the domestic market and have focused on basically expanding horizontally and taking larger and larger chunks of the Indian market for themselves, as opposed to | 12.6 | 3.304732 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165717.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165718 | [S1] Globally thriving. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Tata and Tata Motors are probably one of the better examples of a globally innovative Indian company with JLR, but it has remained a puzzle why we have not seen, and including in manufacturing, [LAUGHS] that kind of large Indian company take the world by storm. | 19.52 | 3.489669 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165718.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165720 | [S1] The numbers are just striking. India has a workforce of about 400 million people. IT and IT services, which we talk about all the time, is two million people. It's literally nothing. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And I think the same is even true for manufacturing. In manufacturing, it's 35 million. So even if it doubles, it's going to be a long and complicated process to get there. [S2] Wow. | 23.56 | 3.418007 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165720.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165721 | [S1] We don't have that many global successes, Indian companies that we can point to. That's sort of also true for China when you think about it. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And then, of course, complicated in the case of China, every time they have a company that is globally successful, we kill it off. We killed off Huawei. [S2] Right. [S1] We are killing off TikTok. [S2] Well, but like BYD, they are producing world-class cars at like $11,000 a pop. [S1] Yeah. [S2] But I take your point. China also suffers from this problem. [S1] Yeah. | 28.92 | 3.542632 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165721.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165722 | [S1] And think about BYD on the list of subsidized car manufacturers in the US, they're not on that list. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So, there's something about mature markets not being quite as open. They're open to sort of the unknown companies that play somewhere in the value chain. I think that you can do relatively easily, but building a really amazing consumer-facing business, there's just not that many examples. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And maybe that's also | 28 | 3.491372 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165722.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165723 | [S1] Yeah, this is such a fascinating question, Felix, and I think you're right to emphasize urbanization. And the answer is, it could happen, but in a different way. So first off, a lot of urbanization has happened in India. [S2] Already, yes. [S1] Which you're more likely to see is urbanization into | 15.8 | 3.464684 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165723.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165725 | [S1] As I've thought about this problem, I think the China example is just completely misleading and elusive. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] So everybody wants to talk about China. Everybody in India wants to talk about China, and everybody wants to say, "How does India become China, and how does India do what China did?" And I've come to feel that China's path in the last 40 years is completely sui generis, will never be replicated again, | 24.84 | 3.23612 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165725.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165726 | [S1] and has very little instructive value for anyone else. It was just a very unique constellation of circumstances. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] 40, 50 years of oppression, highly agrarian economy, massive urbanization, during a period of time of relative globalization and openness. [S2] Yeah. [S1] You could do things there, and in a highly controlled regime, you can do things. But the reality is, that's not gonna happen again. | 25.88 | 3.208804 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165726.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165727 | [S1] anywhere. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] [LAUGHS] [S2] Yeah. [S1] What most of growth looks like, the good outcomes, they're like Indonesia. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And they're really good outcomes. [S2] Yeah. [S1] But we should stop thinking about China as a model because it isn't for anyone, and it's not really one for India either. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So that's just a way of saying, "Will India grow remarkably over the next 10 to 20 years?" I think so. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] We'll have anything | 22.88 | 3.214822 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165727.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165728 | [S1] of the scale and scope of China, you know, no. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] But that's okay. It can still be really remarkable. And you can bring a lot of people out of poverty just with solid five, 6% growth. And maybe that's what we should be thinking about as opposed to China. [S2] Yeah, let me maybe push back on two things. So one is | 20.64 | 3.37765 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165728.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165729 | [S1] You're exactly right about second and third and even fourth-tier cities as when it comes to labor force availability, you'd be totally okay because there will be lots of people who can work in smaller manufacturing centers. I think one thing you can learn from China is that the infrastructure demands on that kind of a growth model are, of course, radically different. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So Hong Kong had connections to the rest of the world. You needed to connect Shanghai and Tianjin and other cities like that to the rest of the world. | 29.88 | 3.547652 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165729.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165730 | [S1] ... of bringing manufacturer goods out of the country. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] India is sort of in the middle of the pack. It's not- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... a really terrible case where it's impossible to get anything done. It's not fabulous. It's not among the leading economies, but it's average. And if, in fact, the government is now serious about making additional investments in infrastructure, I think that can work really well. The second consideration is | 26.44 | 3.470125 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165730.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165731 | [S1] Say we have an economy where we're growing five, 6%, employment effects are largely elusive because we're growing in sectors that are just not very labor-intensive. One correlate, and again, I would look to China to sort of see the longer-term consequences of that, are extreme inequality. [S2] Uh-huh. [S1] And over time, | 21.56 | 3.526625 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165731.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165732 | [S1] extreme levels of inequality, as we have seen in the China case, then has really serious political repercussions. And maybe even worse in the case of India, because if you look at unemployment rates, one of the things that is really remarkable is the unemployed are really young. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So if you look at the | 22.12 | 3.33548 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165732.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165733 | [S1] 20 to 24 year olds. The unemployment rate officially stands at roughly 40%. The unemployed among the 25 to 30 year old group is roughly 12%. So there's this very peculiar preference of Indian companies to hire older workers. And if we can't get the kind of job, the kind of growth that pulls out a lot of people- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... you will have a situation where | 27.12 | 3.482937 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165733.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165734 | [S1] You're absolutely right, that when people look at things like average GDP per capita, it obscures all this. [S2] Yeah, it doesn't really mean much. [S1] It doesn't mean anything, right? And you're also right to point to the political issues that are involved with that. So young people, and especially young men who are underemployed, | 17.2 | 3.080834 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165734.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165735 | [S1] are really complicated and problematic from a political perspective. And we're already seeing things like that happen in India. And they can be mobilized in all kinds of ways that are quite problematic. So I think you're right to put your finger on that. That's why I think this moment and these next five years are so critical. So Tim Cook was recently in India, launching the stores there. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] There are plans to be building | 25.88 | 3.492077 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165735.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165736 | [S1] the next generation of iPhone in India. Now, I'm always loathe to kind of think about one story like that as being important. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] But, it will really matter if India can demonstrate the ability to do high precision manufacturing at scale. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] If they can pull that off. | 17.68 | 3.337367 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165736.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165737 | [S1] then that can really be something special. [S2] Yeah, yeah. [S1] But that's what this moment is about. I think that's where we're gonna f- learn a ton in the next five years. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And then the second thing that's gonna become important is you pointed to where the growth comes from. And part of where the growth comes from is | 16.64 | 3.28713 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165737.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165738 | [S1] You know, multinational firms who look at the Indian market as being appealing again. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And there was a moment 15, 20 years ago where India was a destination for multinational firms. [S2] Yes. [S1] That has kind of faded. And so that has to come back. Now, there are murmurings about that, but it has to come back in force. And when India becomes a real destination for multinational firms, | 21 | 3.234553 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165738.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165739 | [S1] And by the way, it has, for example, for Microsoft, there's a massive piece of R&D that gets done in India, which is super exciting and super interesting. But that would be the other thing I would look for, is to see when multinationals really start targeting India again. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Those two signs would tell me | 17.24 | 3.330967 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165739.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165740 | [S1] that there's something to believe in here, which is beyond just good, but like potentially great. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] When those two things happen, high precision manufacturing at scale and multinational firms really getting excited, then you can really go to the next level. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Which I think would be incredibly exciting. [S2] Yeah. Yeah. [S1] And it's just worth emphasizing how much | 20 | 3.297947 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165740.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165741 | [S1] Human welfare is on the line with these kinds of things. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] There are literally hundreds of millions of people who can be lifted out of pretty abject circumstances when these things go right or wrong, as they were in China, Felix, and as you know well. [S2] Yes. Yeah. [S1] And so it is a story that | 14.28 | 2.989945 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165741.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165742 | [S1] is just incredibly important for the world to see. And also politically important because in a world where some people are wondering about China, India becomes a natural counterweight to that. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] In a world where there are concerns about autocracy, there's a really interesting | 16.24 | 3.422143 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165742.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165743 | [S1] ... Schism in India about what Narendra Modi's doing. Is it autocratic? Is it not autocratic? What does it mean? And- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... should we be worried about it? So for all those reasons, India is just going to be a place that I think is going to be critical to watch in the next five years. And we'll know, I think, how it's going to play out in five years. So it's a super fun story to watch. | 18.16 | 3.341518 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165743.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165744 | [S1] So this is just one of the many reasons I love talking to you so much. In a short period of time, I'm learning all of these really interesting things and I have a new way of thinking about what might be happening in India over the next couple of years or so. And maybe the most important takeaway for me here is we should talk about companies in India much more often on the show than we have done in the past. [S2] Absolutely. And we got to do a podcast episode from India. [S1] [LAUGHS] | 29.32 | 3.134955 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1Ns4y137jx_BV1Ns4y137jx_m4-dialogue_0165744.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411534 | [S1] ... to remind people why they listen in the first place. [S2] Exactly. [S1] Maybe something slightly technical. [S2] Well, yeah. So you want to talk about the bond market, Felix? [S1] Oh, my God. What better topic than the bond market. [S2] [LAUGHS] This is like the worst thing to start a season with. [S1] I know, I know. [S2] But we have to test our listener's resolve to stand by us. [S1] Yes, yeah. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Can you imagine if you proposed a new podcast and you would say, "Our first episode is going to be about the bond market." [LAUGHS] [S2] It's like that Nick Lowe song, "You gotta be cruel to be kind." | 29.12 | 3.399095 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411534.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411535 | [S1] It's pretty crazy. So let's remember what's happened over the last year plus. Felix, actually about a year ago, we did our first episode about interest rates. [S2] We did. [S1] And it was when we were concerned and interested in what happened when the Federal Reserve started raising rates a lot, and then things started to break. | 17.48 | 3.510747 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411535.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411536 | [S1] You might remember, there was things going on in the UK. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And we talked a whole lot about what can happen when short-term interest rates rise a lot. And then, of course, Felix, in March and April, we talked about the banks, and we talked about SVB. [S2] And they were victims of those higher rates, right, which tank the value of their bonds. [S1] And made their deposits a little bit more mobile. And then, of course, that seemed to all get better. | 23.48 | 3.419395 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411536.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411537 | [S1] almost like a 15, 16 year high. [S2] Yeah. [S1] These are long-term rates for 10 year bonds. And so they have gone up from something like 3.5 to almost five. And by the way, it's not just the US, Felix. It's happening all around the world. So we see things happening in Germany, not as quite as precipitous. In Japan, you know, you might say, "Well, Japan has zero interest rates." Well, not anymore. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And that's a big change for them too. And so I wanted to just talk a little bit about | 27.52 | 3.473802 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411537.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411538 | [S1] What changes when those things change, and then why did it happen? And maybe try to figure out what happens next. So that's what I was hoping to talk a little bit about. [S2] Yeah, fantastic. I think it's such an important and interesting topic. Maybe at the outset, I'd like to acknowledge two things. [S1] [LAUGHS] Yes. [S2] Part of the confusion around bond markets is that | 21.2 | 3.401588 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411538.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411539 | [S1] the language is just so complicated and confusing. [S2] So bad. [S1] There's yields, there's our star, there is a term premia, and so on, and so on. And so I hope that we can shed a little bit of light on what's going on, perhaps in language that is a little more accessible than the typical conversation that we hear on Wall Street. And then the second thing that strikes me is | 25.4 | 3.272075 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411539.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411540 | [S1] Somehow bond markets are always a source of worry. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Remember when yield curves first inverted, so long-term interest rates were lowered and short-term interest rates was, "Oh my God, this is typically a sign of a recession." [S2] Right. [S1] And now we go back to normal and you might look at it and you might say, "Oh, actually, that just says | 21.72 | 3.457498 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411540.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411541 | [S1] The economy is basically in good shape. Maybe the soft landing that we hoped for for so long, maybe it's a real possibility. But no. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] As people now look at the rise in long-term rates, again, there's the sense that, "Oh my God, perhaps we're in some sort of trouble." So one question I have for you is, do you think people's response to the bond market | 26.4 | 3.333376 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411541.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411542 | [S1] says more about their sort of general attitude about the future, whether they're optimists or pessimists, or is it- [S2] Right. [S1] Can we make, say, technical sense out of the changes and then sometimes say, "No, actually, this is a reason to be really careful." And sometimes we say, "No, it might be costly. It might mean your investment strategy is not working very well for a short period of time, but it's not really a reason to be fundamentally worried." | 25.32 | 3.365992 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411542.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411543 | [S1] Yeah, I think that's a great way to begin. And by the way, on your confusing language part, let's not forget the most important confusion in bond markets, which is prices and yields. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So this is this weird world where when prices go down, | 12.88 | 3.415144 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411543.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411544 | [S1] ... returns or yields, expected returns go up. And so people find that so confusing. And so there's this, what is a bear market, what is a bull market? It's super confusing. So let's just fix ideas and we'll just talk about long-term rates. I think that's an easy way to talk about the world, and we'll also just talk about short-term rates. And then on your second point, I think, look, I have continued to believe for like the last 12 months, we are living through just incredibly confusing times. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And so | 24.4 | 3.390944 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411544.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411545 | [S1] So, I think there's really three possibilities for what has happened here. And they're kind of good news, kind of no news, and kind of bad news. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] So the good news version is exactly what you alluded to, which is we kind of expect long-term rates to help us understand future economic growth. [S2] Yep. [S1] And so, when long-term rates rise, and they have been depressed for actually a very long time, well, then we should think of that as being fundamentally positive. And the way to think about that is, well, | 29.76 | 3.184806 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411545.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411546 | [S1] If we expect future growth to be quite strong, then we should expect capital to be fairly productive over longer periods of time, and we should be willing to pay for the ability to borrow and deploy capital at those high rates. So if future growth is pretty good, you kind of think to yourself, "That's, should be associated with high rates." And conversely, what we've lived through for the last 10 or 15 years is very low long-term rates. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And as you said, | 28.12 | 3.485982 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411546.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411547 | [S1] That can be a way to think about either an impending recession or, man, we're just not growing as fast as we used to grow. So one story here, Felix, is the good news version, which is, hey, long-term rates are higher. Actually, there's not gonna be a recession. Future growth, think AI, think everything else, is gonna foster technological revolution, productivity growth, and we are off to the races, Felix. [S2] Yeah, so that's sort of the positive side of things, right? [S1] And I think it's totally plausible. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Just to be | 27.16 | 3.320737 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411547.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411548 | [S1] Just to be clear, it's totally plausible and it could be true. [S2] Yeah. [S1] I guess the reasons to be a little cautious about it is it happened very fast. [S2] Uh-huh. [S1] Why did it happen so fast? Why did it happen so violently? But look, the economy in many ways remains very, very strong and so maybe you can convince yourself that that's true. So I think that's the first way to kind of understand it. Does that resonate with | 18.56 | 3.46793 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411548.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411549 | [S1] with you at all? [S2] Yeah, that seems exactly right. And that's maybe the most intuitive way to think about it. And then, in addition, I think the other consideration that many people will have on their minds is what happens to inflation, because we worried about inflation so much. [S1] [LAUGHS] | 15.68 | 3.387642 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411549.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411550 | [S1] big factor. [S2] Exactly. [S1] We have bonds that are inflation protected and bonds that are not inflation protected, and so you can look at the difference in them. And it seems that markets basically believe that the biggest threat from inflation is maybe not passed entirely. We sometimes have these surprisingly strong reports. | 20.84 | 3.400291 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411550.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411551 | [S1] ... that reawaken some of the concerns. But basically, I don't think anyone thinks inflation is like an unsolvable, really big issue. [S2] Right. [S1] And so if inflation is not driving it, and as a result, Fed concerns about inflation are not driving it, that's at least one channel that doesn't seem to be as important for the explanation of long-term interest rates as you might think. [S2] And by the way, that's also good news. [S1] That's also good news, yes. [S2] So | 24.56 | 3.348948 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411551.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411552 | [S1] future expected inflation and what's going to happen over time. The second reason is because of forecasts and expectations of future growth. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And then there's a third possibility, which is somehow that when you give money to the government for longer periods of time, you are worried about other stuff. Maybe there's some larger uncertainty that you are worried about. And then in order to tie up your capital for that longer time, you demand a higher premium. | 26.8 | 3.472017 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411552.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411553 | [S1] So that is the third possible explanation of what's happening here, which is a little more disconcerting, I think. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So we got the good news version done. Let's do the kind of medium news. There's actually, by the way, a little bit of a no-news story, which is there are things going on at the Federal Reserve and at the Treasury Department that are just idiosyncratic and weird. | 19.76 | 3.316652 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411553.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411554 | [S1] ... the Treasury Department happens to be borrowing a lot of money right now. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And the Federal Reserve is engaged in this process of what's called quantitative tightening and selling down their balance sheet. So it's possible that there's just some weird idiosyncratic things going on in these markets, which is not that generally interesting, but could be driving things. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Now, of course, there's always an issue about, well, why aren't there more buyers or so on and so forth. But it is also just true that there's some technical things in markets that can drive these things. | 29.6 | 3.388653 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411554.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411555 | [S1] And we have government finances that are perhaps in more disarray than they've been in a long time. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And so now you have to admit the possibility of some event that is a little bit more complicated and problematic that makes people just not want to hold | 19.04 | 3.431007 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411555.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411556 | [S1] US government bonds anymore. And so they are really much more cautious. Now, what do I mean by that? These rates are not high relative to what Paul Volcker did in the 1970s and 1980s. [S2] [LAUGHS] Yes, yeah. [S1] We're not near breaking anything. And the answer is maybe, but maybe not. So debt-to-GDP back then was 40%. Today it's, let's say 120%. [S2] Yeah, yeah. [S1] Deficits were back then like 3-4% of GDP. | 25.76 | 3.465775 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411556.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411557 | [S1] Depending on the number and on the year, we're more like six, 7%. [S2] Yeah. Yeah. [S1] And when rates start to rise with that much debt, you have to start to think about weird outcomes, Felix. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] And I think that's the thing that I think is now a possibility that wasn't really a possibility in my lifetime. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Now you have to ask yourself, well, the US government has to finance itself, has to borrow at higher rates and higher rates, and those higher rates make it even harder and harder to service their debt because their interest costs go up and up. | 29.24 | 3.377641 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411557.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411558 | [S1] That's right, yeah. [S2] And those possibilities, I think, are now not dominant, but they're on the table in a way, Felix, that they haven't been in- [S1] In a very long time. [S2] In a- | 8.84 | 3.34178 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411558.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411559 | [S1] In a very long time. [S2] Yeah. [S1] For the last 30 years, I'm sure people have told you, Felix, like, "The US is on an unsustainable path. What's going to happen? It's all going to break," so on and so forth. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And that was something that I think that could be easily dismissed for a long time. And so now you have to put a little bit of probability, Felix, on something happening that is a little bit weirder. And moreover, just like we saw when short-term rates rose, sometimes things can just break. | 25.28 | 3.337731 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411559.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411560 | [S1] Like those UK pension plans. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Like SVB. Business models can just break. And especially in financial markets, these rates are used for everything. They're kind of used to borrow, they're used to invest. And so if somebody has taken a position that can go the wrong way, then things can break. So those are the two new things. I think there's two bad outcomes. Like something breaks or we're beginning this period where we have to worry about solvency in a way that we didn't have to ever worry about solvency. | 28.24 | 3.455277 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411560.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411561 | [S1] Yeah. And I think from these categories, of course, it's a very short step to thinking about government dysfunction in the US. [S2] Right. [S1] We now have two parties who are completely unwilling to rein in spending. In fact, when you think that the deficit essentially doubled | 20.24 | 3.478533 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411561.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411562 | [S1] This past year, on the back of a strong economy. [S2] Right. [S1] It's not as though we had a very, a big recession or anything like that. And it points, interestingly, I think, to big, important institutional differences that then also show up in bond markets. So for instance, across the EU, you have | 22.56 | 3.434496 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411562.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411563 | [S1] The old Maastricht Treaty that wanted to limit deficits at 3% of GDP. And they've now really been totally successful at doing it. [S2] Right. [S1] They made a big exception during COVID to allow the deficits to rise to 5%. But overall, you now see that these exceptions are passed. You see levels of deficit come down. In particular, which I find so interesting, | 24.48 | 3.474175 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411563.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411564 | [S1] ... promising trajectory, always a little slower than we would like, always a little less reliable than we would like. But, you know, it's like- [S2] Right. [S1] ... the general direction, at least- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... is the right one. And in the US, you see none of that. I think our spending is predicted to eclipse 6, 7, 8%. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And there's no obvious pathway how to fix it. [S2] Exactly. [S1] I love this expression. | 25.08 | 3.321204 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411564.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411565 | [S1] I don't know if it's original to him. Paul Krugman sometimes talks of the US government as an insurance company with an army attached to it. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] And that sounds exactly right. 75% of our spending is basically some kind of insurance programs. [S2] Right. [S1] And all of these programs are super valuable. They get rapidly more expensive over time. And that's the | 23.28 | 3.291538 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411565.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411566 | [S1] a fraction of the budget that is just not important. [S2] Yeah. [S1] I think that's the source of pessimism. If we can't even start a conversation about the parts of government spending that are the big problem, that we're unwilling to touch, that doesn't bode very well for the future. [S2] And add a | 18.32 | 3.196501 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411566.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411567 | [S1] One last dimension to this, Felix, which is, I think you're totally right to highlight political uncertainty within the United States, the ability to negotiate these kinds of things. But of course, government debt is bought often by other governments. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And we finance our debt with a fair amount of foreign investors. And of course, the Chinese Central Bank has been a big buyer. We have central banks around the world who are big buyers. | 22.4 | 3.44057 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411567.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411568 | [S1] Well, that political fragmentation and chaos you described in the US is perhaps also true globally. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] And so if you think that we are going to be able to finance our debt in the same way that we used to, I think that's wrong. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Indeed- [S2] Yeah, yeah. [S1] ... the PBOC made a statement in 2013 about limiting their investments, and the US has done a lot of things to make domestic financial institutions buy those treasuries. | 24.04 | 2.978555 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411568.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411569 | [S1] But even more immediate, I think, is that if you have a mortgage, say a 30-year mortgage, that has a low interest rates, the last thing you want to do is move. [S2] Exactly. [S1] And as a result, the supply of homes on the market has come down | 16.44 | 3.367586 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411569.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411570 | [S1] It's hard to exaggerate the number. So typically we have about 2 million homes that are available for sale. Now we have roughly a million homes, so 50% less. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And that, of course, drives up the prices of homes in addition to the mortgages that have become more expensive. So one of the really terrible things that you have to expect from longer-term rates is that, to the extent that homelessness, to the extent that a sense that | 29.28 | 3.471919 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411570.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411571 | [S1] ... the economy is not working for the average family, if those are real concerns, those concerns are going to be inflated as a result. [S2] Yeah. [S1] There is an interesting twist, though, because no one moves out, you spur the construction of new homes. So, preliminary estimates are that about | 20.96 | 3.409434 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411571.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411572 | [S1] Right. And I think there's two really interesting pieces of that at the household level. The first is, it's an artifact, of course, Felix, of these really weird last 10 years where people refinanced in 2020 and 2021 at incredibly low rates. [S2] Super low rates. [S1] And often for like 30-year fixed. So | 16.92 | 3.426994 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411572.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411573 | [S1] That can go on for a long time. [S2] Yeah, yeah. [S1] And in a way, it makes the whole job of fighting inflation with higher rates harder because people aren't feeling the pinch of it in the mortgage market. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Which is also a weird artifact of what's happening here. [S2] Yeah. Which is very different in the US and in the UK, for instance, right? Where most people have variable rates and- [S1] Exactly. [S2] ... the banking problems that ensue- [S1] Are totally different. [S2] Yeah. | 22.48 | 3.400798 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411573.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411574 | [S1] I think there's two other big things at the household level. First off, in addition to housing, of course, there are these kinds of bigger purchases that people often use debt for. So I'm thinking of cars and solar panels and [LAUGHS] lots of things that you might choose to finance. And that does get affected right away. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And so that stuff, the decision to put the new solar panels on your home, the decision to buy a car, you're hearing that on conference calls. You're hearing that hesitation that is starting to show up. | 28.16 | 3.309917 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411574.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411575 | [S1] I will just say, there is a flip to all this, which is kind of very good news, which is the kinds of returns you can now earn on relatively safe investments is very high. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So if you wanted to buy like an investment grade corporate bond fund, which is like a very high quality kind of thing to buy, you can earn like six plus percent. [S2] Yeah, kind of amazing. [S1] And that is a big deal. | 22.64 | 3.380078 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411575.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411576 | [S1] And that is a big deal. And I know Felix, you are interested in the insurance market. You know, things like annuities become really interesting again. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And insurance becomes super interesting. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So there are all these things that become more interesting than they ever were before, and especially for savers. And for savers who maybe didn't want to participate in the stock market, who were like, "Ah, I want out of that," that trade-off also becomes, I think, really important as well. | 23.84 | 3.362647 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411576.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411577 | [S1] Kind of over-correct. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So you had a bad year in the bond market for the last two years, and then all of a sudden, say, I give up. If anything, you want to do the opposite. [S2] Yeah. [S1] It has proven terribly unreliable, but that doesn't necessarily mean you want to abandon. And especially now, as rates are quite attractive. Again, assuming nothing cataclysmic happens. [S2] That's such good advice because one of the biggest dangers in investing is always that you overreact and don't think about just how unusual the situation has been that we've been in for the last couple of years. | 28.52 | 3.576327 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411577.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411578 | [S1] The overall numbers don't look so frightening, but they're highly concentrated in a few sectors of the economy. [S2] Exactly. [S1] And you worry about, so say, all this enthusiasm about the metaverse. Where's the metaverse now? All this enthusiasm about crypto, where is crypto now? If the enthusiasm around AI, | 20.4 | 3.501266 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411578.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411579 | [S1] Yeah, I think that's exactly right. The somewhat good news is corporate balance sheets are, relatively speaking, okay. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So there's not tons and tons of leverage on them, but there are industries where there are, and in particular, you want to just think through, like, you know, when the cost of capital goes up by 150 basis points or 1.5%, that makes investments on the margin harder to justify. And in particular, if you're exposed to demand, | 27.72 | 3.416803 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411579.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411580 | [S1] that is also a function of those interest rates. Like go back to solar panels or cars or whatever. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Then you're conceivably sandwiched between decreasing demand from these interest rates and then higher costs and a higher cost of capital. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So that I think is quite problematic. And of course, all of this is in part what we've been trying to engineer to dampen inflation, but it can happen faster and more violently than we had hoped. And that, I think, is the concern in some ways. | 25.64 | 3.461603 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411580.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411581 | [S1] Yeah. And it might undo some of the government efforts that take place at the same time, right? So we have all- [S2] Exactly. [S1] ... these subsidies to build a greener economy. And then at the same time, that creates a situation where interest rates are high and that discourages private investments in a green economy, which is exactly the opposite of what we want. [S2] And precisely because they're longer-term projects. Exactly right. [S1] Yeah. [S2] Okay. Do you think they made it through an entire episode about the bond market? | 25.76 | 3.340006 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411581.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411583 | [S1] So I was thinking about should I choose something that sort of matches the episode or should I choose something really upbeat that would make everyone happy? And I went with the first intuition. So I have a book that I would like to recommend. It's by Celeste Ng and it's called Our Missing Hearts. [S2] Wait, is it about the bond market? [S1] [LAUGHS] It's not about the bond market. It's a novel and | 27.92 | 3.433964 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411583.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411584 | [S1] The love in the family is in part what gets them in trouble in that kind of an environment. And so it speaks to the tensions between the private and the public. It asks these really hard questions that I find so difficult always to answer. It's like, what's your responsibility when you see things not headed in the right direction? Is it- [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] ... okay to be silent? You have to speak out. What's the cost of speaking out? | 27.12 | 3.45203 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411584.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411585 | [S1] And then it's also a story of how things that you do that at the moment you do them seem to have no significance whatsoever, that in the end turn out to be really critical. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] If you like thinking about this political, this economic moment in time, and if you like to read about it, | 21.56 | 3.400773 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411585.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411587 | [S1] It sounds wonderful. It doesn't sound like the beach read, but it sounds like maybe curling up by the fire during the winter or fall kind of a read. [S2] Yes. [S1] So I'm going to go for something considerably lighter, which is, I've previously recommended this TV show called Only Connect from the UK, but now the New York Times has a game that mirrors that same idea. [S2] Oh. [S1] Where you have to connect four things that are alike out of a grid of 16. [S2] It's so hard. Oh, my God. It's so difficult. [S1] I'm so glad you've tried it. | 27.4 | 3.192803 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411587.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411588 | [S1] I'm glad you've tried it. It's tough, right? [S2] It's tough. [S1] But it is so fun and so rewarding. [S2] Yeah. [S1] I think the whole New York Times Games Department is just killing it. Anyway, so Connections is a new game there, and it's based on that TV show that I've recommended in the past called Only Connect. [S2] And what I find so fabulous about Connect is in retrospect, it's almost impossible to understand how you didn't see the connection. [S1] [LAUGHS] Right. [S2] But then when you first look at the words, it's really hard to get. [S1] Yes. [S2] What a great recommendation. [S1] Yeah. | 29.68 | 3.357922 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411588.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411589 | [S1] Yeah, it makes your mind work in different ways, which is really, really fun. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Okay. Hopefully that made up for the whole episode on the bond market. What do you think? [S2] Absolutely. [S1] [LAUGHS] [S2] No question. [S1] Excellent. [S2] So this is it for tonight. Thank you everyone for listening. We're delighted to be back with you for this season. This was After Hours from the TED Audio Collective. | 19.32 | 2.984479 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_BV1ig4y1d7Wi_m4-dialogue_0411589.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004376 | [S1] Hello, everyone. You're listening to After Hours. I'm Felix. [S2] And I'm Mihir. It's just the two of us. [S1] You feel a little lonely? [S2] I feel okay. I feel good. [S1] [LAUGHS] Actually, all about how you feel today. So we have just seen amazing market volatility. How do you take that personally? Are you calm? Are you freaked out? What's your recipe for staying healthy and staying sane? [S2] [LAUGHS] Well, that recipe is different from | 25.44 | 2.888736 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004376.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004377 | [S1] Maybe what I actually do. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] But I think the right recipe is to try to cabin it off in your life and not pay that much attention to it. Because, you know, as I've gotten older, you worry and think about things that you can control. And you try to spend a little time- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... worrying and thinking about things you can control. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So I don't pay that much attention to it on an hourly basis at all. But I do think what is happening in the financial markets is completely fascinating. And in a way, I'm quite relieved to see so much excess get wrung out of the system. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And I feel like it's basically health | 29.76 | 3.262796 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004377.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004378 | [S1] ... healthy. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] That doesn't mean it's not painful for people, 'cause I think it is very, very painful. [S2] Yeah. Yeah. [S1] But it is also fascinating to see what is happening and the speed at which it happens. | 8.48 | 3.310221 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004378.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004379 | [S1] One way to think about that advice is kind of backwards in a way, right? Which is you should be positioned in markets so that you wouldn't be so disturbed by outcomes, in a way. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So that paying attention isn't that interesting because you're positioned in a way that is relatively calm and neutral and makes you comfortable. [S2] Yeah. [S1] But I agree. It is addictive and interesting and also can lead to a lot of anxiety. But- [S2] Yeah. [S1] Maybe, Felix, we should talk about it. What do you think? [S2] Yeah. | 24.84 | 3.277444 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004379.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004380 | [S1] Yeah, yeah. Let's do macro as one of our topics. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Where the economy is today, where do you think we're headed, short-term, long-term, I think that would be fascinating to talk about. [S2] Yeah, let's do that. | 11.84 | 3.384091 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004380.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004382 | [S1] You never wanted it. Your life is all of a sudden here. [S2] Yeah. [S1] I think it's a super interesting situation. So maybe let's start with inflation. So inflation came in at 8% or so. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Much, much higher than the Fed would like to see. If you look at the longer-term outlook, most signs point towards roughly 4%, driven by an easing up of the supply chain issues. Much hinges on what's happening in China, obviously. [S2] Right. [S1] What fraction of the Chinese economy | 29.88 | 3.456012 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004382.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004383 | [S1] Let's dampen down demand because the economy runs a little hot. Or actually, we don't really have to do much, which is, I guess, everybody's favorite scenario. And the rationale for thinking that this is not unrealistic is, if you look at the total capacity in the economy- [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] ... given the economy pre-pandemic, how much output can we produce? Actually, the level of output that we have today is a little less | 27.16 | 3.286055 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004383.mp3 | [
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