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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004384 | [S1] is not all that hard. [S2] Right. [S1] Now, [LAUGHS] there are wrinkles in both of these stories. One is we're missing roughly 3 million workers or so, mostly | 12.04 | 3.462537 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004384.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004385 | [S1] from low-paid jobs, often women, often people without college degrees, and it's a little uncertain whether they will come back. And then productivity growth has just been not amazing, really. It's been around 3% or so. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So the big question that I pay most attention to is, inflation's going to come down, and then it's all about how hot can the economy run, given current capacity. And capacity is just a reflection of what's going to happen in the labor market. | 29.88 | 3.302834 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004385.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004386 | [S1] What's your take? [S2] The reason I like the way you framed this up, Felix, is I think many people's intuition goes wrong with inflation, especially now. [S1] Yeah. [S2] You've identified it, I think, quite clearly as a supply-side phenomenon. [S1] Yes. [S2] What goes wrong with people thinking about inflation is they're so used to thinking about demand that they don't | 18.12 | 3.262044 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004386.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004387 | [S1] ... think about supply. They think, "Oh, well, here's what we have to do. We have to give people more money so they can buy all the goods that are more expensive now." [S2] Yes. [S1] That turns out to be wrong. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Oh, no, here's what we've got to do. We have to cut taxes so that people will have more money because then they will be able to | 17.24 | 3.238592 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004387.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004388 | [S1] buy more. Well, that turns out to be wrong. Or finally you say, well, we gotta tax all these windfall profits by these companies who are making too much money, but that turns out to restrict supply, which can make the problem worse. [S2] Worse, yeah. [S1] So all these intuitions I think get us wrong, and what you're identifying is fundamentally these are supply considerations that have got to get navigated through. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And then there's a second element, before we get to your nice landing of 4%, is | 26.4 | 3.431833 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004388.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004389 | [S1] There is a sense in which these things can spiral. And I think there's like this wage price spiral dynamic that can break out and expectations can get out of hand. Now, to your point, actually, expectations don't look bad. [S2] Yeah, don't look bad, yes. [S1] They don't look like they're spiraling out of control. [S2] That's exactly right. [S1] So in a way, I kind of feel like we all should take a little chill pill for the next 12 months and try to figure out the supply side, try to figure out labor force participation. [S2] How do we get workers back? [S1] How do we get workers back? [S2] How do you think about immigration? | 29.24 | 3.392527 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004389.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004390 | [S1] How do we think about immigration? How do we think about housing supply? How do we think about all those kinds of longer-term solutions- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... and away from the political talking points which will lead you astray. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And then we're back to like a more normal world. [S2] Yeah, where we know how things work, what the Fed can and cannot do. [S1] My instinct is similar to yours, which is, I think we're gonna get there in 12 months, but it's to this more 4% level. And as you point out, then we have to make a set of choices if we wanna go back down to two. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Now, first off, there's nothing magic about two. | 29.96 | 3.332985 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004390.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004391 | [S1] Two things I think to keep in mind. One is inflation normally is a very slow phenomenon. [S2] Yeah. [S1] It comes on slowly. It takes quite a while for inflation to dissipate. And the current episode is really unusual in the sense that it's really only during the Korean War and the oil crisis of the 70s that we ever had these, "Oh my God, inflation's coming on and it's so fast." And that's how you know whether it's demand or supply side. | 29.96 | 3.446929 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004391.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004392 | [S1] If it's demand side, it's going to happen very slowly. If it's supply side, you see these spikes. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] And the other thing that I really love about what you just explained about the- | 10.52 | 3.392491 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004392.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004393 | [S1] Desired level of inflation is what's really costly about inflation is volatility. So that your price expectations are never really quite right because the higher the average inflation, the greater the volatility around that average. And really, when you think about terrible episodes of hyperinflation, if you could have 4%, but not much volatility, markets can easily deal with that. [S2] Yeah. [S1] I like the idea to say maybe we'll find out | 29.96 | 3.503083 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004393.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004394 | [S1] I do think that there's a risk of the Fed not getting it exactly right and producing a harder landing. The job of the Fed is just extraordinarily difficult. [S2] Right. [S1] And history is sort of gives mixed guidance. The Korea shock, actually, the Fed handled really well. It was a soft landing, it worked perfectly. And then the oil crisis of the '70s was the exact opposite in that it produced a very hard landing on employment-shot | 29.96 | 3.352265 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004394.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004395 | [S1] ... up, and it took a long time to get inflationary expectations in line with a much more stringent Fed policy. My sense is that the current situation is probably somewhere in between. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] We definitely don't have a problem where markets and the economy have just gotten used to fairly high levels of inflation. [S2] Right, exactly. [S1] So that makes me slightly more optimistic. The other thing that is really | 28.24 | 3.532595 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004395.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004396 | [S1] important for businesses to think about is the trade-off between investing in greater margins today versus investing in growth. [S2] Yeah. [S1] In one of my classes, I show participants a graph that says if you get 1% extra growth, | 20.72 | 3.401598 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004396.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004397 | [S1] What's the implication for the value of your firm? And then if you get 1% extra margin, what's the implication for the value of your firm? And what you see is that growth is so much better in terms of increasing the value of your company compared to an increase in margins. And we talk about this and it's a totally fascinating conversation. And then of course at the end you discover so much of that is just driven by extraordinary low interest rates. [S2] Right. [S1] When you discount | 29.88 | 3.550893 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004397.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004398 | [S1] ... discount the future, and the future is basically here because there's not really any discounting to do. Then growth trajectories look really promising, and investments that would raise your margins actually don't look so fabulous by comparison. [S2] Right. [S1] Say, if you're meta. | 19.08 | 3.420821 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004398.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004399 | [S1] for the last six months. [S2] [LAUGHS] Yes. [S1] When that happens on a macro scale, what do we see? We see rates rise, and we see these long-tailed growth companies with remarkable expectations come crashing down to earth because of exactly the mechanism you described. [S2] [LAUGHS] Yes. [S1] I think the other thing about this, Felix, that really strikes me is | 17.16 | 3.424193 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004399.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004400 | [S1] This is a time to stay very close to the data, more than ever before. [S2] Yeah. [S1] You want to be watching your customers, you want to be talking to your customers, you want to actually get a feel of things. So the more time you spend in the narrative of recession is coming, recession is not coming, inflation is spiking, the less likely you are to get your business right. [S2] Yeah. [S1] 'Cause the heterogeneity is just so great. So I'd love your advice about thinking harder, maybe about margins relative to growth, but then I also just think, | 28.6 | 3.422329 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004400.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004401 | [S1] generic answers are just so much less likely to obtain now than they were ever before. [S2] Yeah. I wanted to also ask you about crypto. [S1] Yeah. [S2] Of course, crypto has melted down alongside other parts of the market. | 14.92 | 3.52436 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004401.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004402 | [S1] And that means there is far less money available for cryptocurrencies. And we learn nothing fundamental. There's no information about the long-term potential of cryptocurrencies. All you're seeing is investors appetite for risk has changed. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Which do you think is true? [S2] I kind of view those | 20.72 | 3.544578 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004402.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004403 | [S1] ... as being somewhat compatible. [S2] Okay. [S1] [LAUGHS] [S2] So the answer is both? [S1] Well, I mean, I've been a long-term skeptic of crypto, and I think that's been reinforced. And just to put the numbers in perspective, currencies like Bitcoin are maybe down 60% from their highs. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] We've seen the decline of what was considered a stablecoin, which was supposed to be this thing that | 20.32 | 3.542598 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004403.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004404 | [S1] would be anchored and would be pegged and would be backed- [S2] To the dollar. [S1] ... to the dollar and would enable you to have the same faith and confidence. Those stablecoins raised lots of interesting questions, which is first, why do we need a stablecoin if cryptocurrencies are- [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] ... a currency? But let's put that aside. The one that exploded fantastically turned out not backed by US dollars, it was backed | 23.36 | 3.378444 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004404.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004405 | [S1] by this Luna currency. And once it broke- [S2] Uh-huh. [S1] ... it was staggering what happened. Literally hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth lost- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... in an instant. So, I don't think you can walk away from this thinking what you thought before. No matter how bullish you are on crypto, I think you have to reassess, first off, | 19.52 | 3.398242 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004405.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004406 | [S1] What these stable coins are, what kind of stable coins work. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Second, I think you have to reassess if you ever put forward an argument that it's a store of value or it's a medium of exchange that's great. I think you have to reassess. And then I think finally, | 12.88 | 3.378825 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004406.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004407 | [S1] It is what I think it's always been, which is it's a risky speculative asset. And so that's what you thought before. You've been vindicated by the evidence now, which is it moves like a risky asset. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] But the question still remains, unlike the blockchain, what problem are we solving? And is there a real problem that this is a solution to? And to me, that question remains still very ambiguous and unanswered. | 21.48 | 3.087606 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004407.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004408 | [S1] Yeah. I have one intuition that I think is more confirmed and then maybe a change that I see coming. The intuition is exactly your point about a store of value. [S2] Yeah. [S1] There's no reason to believe that you should think of cryptocurrencies as a store of value. And actually, to your earlier point, | 21 | 3.498379 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004408.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004409 | [S1] We have stores of value. [S2] Yeah, true. [S1] What exactly is gained by creating something new? I do think it'll be super interesting to see if this has increased the appetite for regulating some of these markets. Because some of the shady behavior that you saw in cryptocurrency undermines trust, which is particularly important in situations like these. And I'll be very interested, and I think I'll follow the debate very closely, whether even people who | 29.88 | 3.392709 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004409.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004410 | [S1] who put out cryptocurrencies now realize that you gain some of that trust by having a little more centralization than you advocated for it to begin with. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And probably also more regulation just to keep bad actors in check, just to make sure that people who invest in cryptocurrencies and who believe in cryptocurrencies, that they can do so | 24.64 | 3.429968 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004410.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004411 | [S1] And indeed, recent developments this last week with Coinbase and with Robinhood have been fascinating. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] So Coinbase made a disclosure that suggested that it was not exactly clear- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... during a bankruptcy where your crypto assets would go. Now, I think that got overplayed because a lot of brokerage accounts are like that, frankly. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] But, you know, it raises some real issues. But none of this is going away fast. So the other fascinating development to me is that Sam Bankman-Fried, who is a crypto gajillionaire, put in | 29.44 | 3.466989 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004411.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004412 | [S1] a 9% stake into Robinhood. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So they're not going away. [S2] Yeah. [S1] They're gonna fight back and they're gonna really try to insinuate themselves into more and more infrastructure so that it gets valued in their way. I mean, that's the game they have to play at this point. [S2] Yeah. Yeah. [S1] They can't go down easily. It's gonna be a really interesting situation. | 18.72 | 3.467327 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004412.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004413 | [S1] Yeah, super interesting. And as we said at the beginning, you always want to think about, am I learning anything really new here? [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Am I looking at something that feels different from the kinds of patterns that we know from the past? And then, most importantly, what are the implications for your company if you run a firm? What are the implications for you as an investor, professionally speaking, but also maybe personally? [S2] Yeah. | 29.24 | 3.426145 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004413.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004414 | [S1] How worried was I last March? [S2] Right. Exactly. [S1] Or last April. [S2] Right. [S1] And did I feel particularly poor? Did I feel confident about my future? And frankly, the answer is often, I felt okay. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And this really helps me to weather these kinds of storms, to just | 19.88 | 3.464961 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004414.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004415 | [S1] ... Take it in historical perspective. Look at your portfolio and say, "How did you feel last," whatever it happens to be, however the market moves. And I think the answer is mostly, "Is it painful that you lost a year's worth of gains in the market?" Yes, of course it is. Did you feel terrible about your life last March? No, probably not. [S2] [LAUGHS] Exactly. [S1] As a result, there isn't really a big reason to | 24.12 | 3.399954 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004415.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004417 | [S1] the more basic lending function in the economy and doing it better than traditional intermediaries have done it. And Upstart was really one of the highest flyers of all. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Ex-Googlers say they're gonna disrupt lending. This thing goes public last year, climbs as high as a market cap of 30, $40 billion, and then crashes to earth. | 20.92 | 3.455077 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004417.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004418 | [S1] off the loan onto a bank. So just to be clear, they're a platform. They are not historically thought to be somebody who takes risk. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] They are somebody who's supposed to just connect the borrower with the lender and then do that, but do it exceptionally well and better than anyone else can do it because of these algorithms. They look beyond FICO scores. And indeed, they promise that | 21.84 | 3.44782 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004418.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004419 | [S1] For example, for black and Hispanic borrowers, they promise that their algorithms give you 30 to 40% higher approval rates and considerably lower APRs. So they have like a real mission in what they do. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And then what happened this last week is the wheels came off. The stock fell by 60%. The stock is now down 90%. | 22.08 | 3.350405 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004419.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004420 | [S1] ... Turns out they took some stuff onto their balance sheet. [S2] Yeah. Yeah. [S1] So I'm curious what you made of this high flyer coming down to Earth. [S2] Generally speaking, I don't really like these buy now pay later services all that much. [S1] Mm-hmm. [S2] The part that makes sense to me is that | 19.56 | 3.348855 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004420.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004421 | [S1] Our way to allocate credit in the economy is unfair and is inefficient in many ways. So for instance, if you look at the 2008, 2009 meltdown in the housing market, credit histories, these famous FICO scores, literally had zero correlation with the probability that your house would be foreclosed. So is there room for improvement in how we allocate credit? Yes, absolutely. [S2] Yes, exactly right. [S1] Right. | 28.48 | 3.508968 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004421.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004422 | [S1] Why do I have mixed feelings about this? It's mostly from the borrower side, thinking about when is consumer credit a good thing and when is consumer credit actually not great. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And a system that constrains people from having access to credit may not be the worst thing on the planet. So say, should you borrow to buy a better car, as an example? There's two stories, I think. One is | 28.16 | 3.391004 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004422.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004423 | [S1] I need a car to get to work. And if I'm not mobile, I can't take a job that would represent a better opportunity. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] In that context, credit is really more of an investment. [S2] Right. [S1] That's the positive story. [S2] Absolutely. [S1] But if the story is just, I see a fancy new car and I don't really want a save for that car, I want it now, and credit allows me to easily live beyond my means, | 27.56 | 3.441188 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004423.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004424 | [S1] Then, of course, it's not great that people have access to credit. [S2] Right. [S1] Then, in fact, forcing people to save so that at some point in time, now I can afford that really fancy car. And now, if that's what I like to have, absolutely, you should buy your car. There's nothing wrong with it. But in that context, credit is actually highly problematic. And if you look at the buy now, pay later data, about 40% | 25.8 | 3.424995 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004424.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004425 | [S1] percent of people miss payments. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Which indicates it's just a way to live beyond your means. And that, to me, is highly problematic. And frankly, if some of that goes away, I'm not gonna be sad. [S2] Well, there is this problem, Felix, exactly as you said it, which is | 17.64 | 3.471484 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004425.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004427 | [S1] ... personal loans, and then the kind of consumer finance, like a firm kind of thing, buy now, pay later, it's not clear that they're going to be more likely to be those productive investments. [S2] Yes. [S1] They may well be more likely to be more like consumption spending. Now, just to be clear, there's nothing wrong for borrowing for consumption at certain parts of your life because you are out of income or you want to consume, you want a smoothier consumption over life. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] There's something to be said for that. The problem with these folks seems to be, one, | 26.92 | 3.508168 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004427.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004428 | [S1] they started to keep the loans, which was not really part of the deal of being a platform. And we've talked about this with Zillow. [S2] Yeah. [S1] All of a sudden, you find yourself taking a risk position. And the way this actually works is banks specify the FICO scores that they want, and then Upstart basically gives them a bundle of loans. Well, then guess what's probably left on the Upstart balance sheet? [S2] Yeah. [S1] The stuff that other people may not want. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And then there's the final thing that's fascinating to me, 'cause it goes back to our earlier discussion about the macro story, which is, | 29.8 | 3.378545 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004428.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004429 | [S1] It turns out their algorithms outperformed for the last couple of years. Meaning, they were over-predicting defaults and the actual performance was much better. Well, guess what? It, it turns out that when there's a lot of stimulus checks and there's forbearance on student loans, that people pay off these loans and they do better. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And so, all of a sudden, now it looks like their models are under-performing. | 25.4 | 3.311091 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004429.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004430 | [S1] And so, was the thing that we saw, that we thought we liked about Upstart, which is, "Oh, they're better than the plain FICO scores. They're better at figuring out who should get credit." Was that just an artifact of this weird time? [S2] Yeah. [S1] And that's what's causing, I think, a lot of concern, is you shift to taking risk and you shift | 18.8 | 3.439385 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004430.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004431 | [S1] to, "Wait a second, maybe this AIML thing isn't as easy as we thought it was going to be." And in fact, I went on Upstart and I got approved for a loan, I'm happy to say. [S2] [LAUGHS] Surprise, surprise. [LAUGHS] [S1] It is a fast approval. It's remarkably fast. [S2] Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. [S1] It is interesting just to think that maybe this was just a manifestation of a weird period, as opposed to something significant that they have that's super special. | 20.92 | 3.389349 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004431.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004432 | [S1] Yeah. In fairness to the company, we should probably say that it's about $600 million in their balance sheet at this moment. [S2] Right. [S1] And their explanation is that they're going into auto. There's a lot to learn. There's a lot of experimentation. And that, frankly, | 17.2 | 3.416393 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004432.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004433 | [S1] sort of makes sense to me. If you've never done auto loans, it will take a little while for your statistical models to get the idiosyncrasies right. And maybe during that period of time, it's hard to unload these loans. [S2] I agree. [S1] But of course it is extra risk because it means maybe auto isn't really amenable to an AIML model that is vastly superior to the way we give auto loans today. We just don't know. So the market | 29.32 | 3.402587 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004433.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004434 | [S1] A big chunk of what banking succeeds with is low-cost deposits. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] People always think about lending, and they don't think about the value that banks extract because they're able to provide a low-cost funding to a lot of different businesses. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] And so Upstart will never have that, or at least in its current manifestation, we'll never have that. | 19.32 | 3.310981 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004434.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004435 | [S1] Let me push back a little bit on the notion of what it means that some of the risk stays in their balance sheet. So- [S2] Yeah. [S1] One story is the story that you just told is like all the good risks get syndicated, banks are happy to invest, and I'm left with the terrible risk. [S2] Right. [S1] But of course, terrible | 19.04 | 3.410094 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004435.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004436 | [S1] As seen from the perspective of the banks. [S2] Yeah, absolutely. [S1] If in fact the model is a good model, the banks will have the risks that they understand and Upstart will have the risks that Upstart understands. And if their understanding is not a problem, then that is literally the way you would measure how they contribute value to the economy. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And I think the first thing that I would love to see as an investor is, | 24.96 | 3.463531 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004436.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004437 | [S1] Break out non-performing loans by the fraction of the loans that is syndicated so that I know, are you really doing better than the banks? [S2] That is fascinating. Yeah. [S1] Or is it just your story? [S2] Yeah. [S1] The risks that you can't get rid of are really terrible risks and we should be really worried about you. | 18.72 | 3.395665 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004437.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004438 | [S1] One last change that I would love to see is as credit becomes more available in the economy, it's just much better consumer education. [S2] Right. [S1] The easy point that we made before, that you should think of every expense as, is this really investment or is this consumption? And then you should think about credit in the context of consumption, really very differently from you think about credit in the context of investment. So investment, say, in education, they're | 29.88 | 3.395914 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004438.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004439 | [S1] just very, very different from investments in a fancier sneaker that you have seen somewhere online. And I guess there's two challenges here. One is people are not always thinking about this consumption versus investment criteria. [S2] Yeah. [S1] And then the second challenge is something more personal. Are you pretending | 22.64 | 3.345831 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004439.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004440 | [S1] Can I really afford it? [S2] Hmm. [S1] As credit becomes more available in the economy, which to a first degree might be a good thing, we really need to couple it with much better education so that everyone has a good sense of how to think about these personal decisions. | 16 | 3.233534 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004440.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004442 | [S1] Yes, it's actually related to the first topic, or maybe even to both topics that we talked about. [S2] Nice. [S1] I'd like to recommend the articles of a journalist at the Wall Street Journal. His name is Greg Ip. [S2] Oh, yeah. [S1] And he's the chief economics commentator at the Wall Street Journal. He is doing a fantastic job. He mostly writes for a column called Capital Account, so that's like a column I follow [LAUGHS] religiously, and then sometimes, you know, it's long | 29.88 | 3.426668 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004442.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004443 | [S1] ... essays on the weekend, but I appreciate so much what he's doing. On the one hand, you get the news, but that is not so special today. It's like even Google News is doing a reasonable job giving you the news. But then almost every time I learn something new, he really provides a way of thinking about things that is linked to underlying economics or underlying finance. [S2] Yep. [S1] And he would go out to analysts and he would say, "Okay, so here's like a prediction you made. Let me understand | 29.88 | 3.497488 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004443.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004444 | [S1] hand, where the prediction comes from, but then also tell me a little bit about what if you change this assumption? What if you change that assumption? Say, predictions of inflation, how do they change as we make different assumptions about what is happening in the auto market? So if you're interested in macro, if you're interested in where the economy is headed, I think there's really an amazing place to learn about the economy- [S2] Yeah. [S1] ... from a very thoughtful, very knowledgeable writer. Craig Ip. | 29.88 | 3.470411 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004444.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004445 | [S1] at the Walt Disney Journal. [S2] I totally second that. And he plays it straight down the middle. [S1] Yeah. [S2] In a time when it's hard to get a good clean take on things, and an educated take, and from- [S1] Yeah. [S2] ... somebody who's really good at educating, I think it's fantastic. It's a great call. [S1] Yeah, he's really fabulous. [S2] So mine is less elevated. You might recall, Felix, several years ago, I recommended a documentary on Netflix called The Staircase, which is this true crime | 24.48 | 3.317043 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004445.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004446 | [S1] ... Documentary, which is a brilliant piece of work about Michael Peterson who is accused of killing his wife by pushing her down a staircase. [S2] Oh, yes, I remember. [S1] And the question is whether it was accidental or whether it was murder. And the documentary was amazing because there was so much footage 'cause he allowed this documentary team from France to follow him everywhere. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So here comes the second round, which is HBO has released a fictionalized show of those same events. [S2] No, of the same events again? [S1] Exactly. And now at first you would say to yourself, | 29.88 | 3.355375 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004446.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004447 | [S1] ... yourself, this is completely unneeded and redundant because the documentary was so rich. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Why would you need it? And in fact, the first episode or two, I was like, "The documentary's better than this." And by the way, it stars, like, Toni Collette and Colin Firth and a lot of great people. [S2] Oh, wow. Okay. [S1] But by the next couple of episodes, it turns into, like, a little bit of a meditation on the documentary. So, was the documentary really fair? And what does it mean to be telling the story of this via a documentary? [S2] Yeah, yeah. [S1] So, | 27.32 | 3.462049 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004447.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004448 | [S1] It's really fantastic. Like the acting and everything would be great in and of itself, but then it's asking this question, which is, what does it mean to do a documentary? Should you believe what you saw in the documentary, really? Or is the fictional account more true than the documentary? And so I think it really makes you think about what the nature of fact and fiction is in a really interesting way. [S2] That's fantastic. [S1] If you haven't seen the actual original documentary, I totally recommend it still. But | 24.56 | 3.458172 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004448.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004449 | [S1] seeing it with this pairing of a fictionalized version of that same thing is really fascinating. Really, really fascinating. [S2] Yeah, that's fabulous. What a wonderful recommendation. [S1] Excellent. All right, good. [S2] So this is it. Thank you for listening. This was After Hours from the TED Audio Collective. | 15.12 | 3.082441 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1651783980_BV1m34y1T7h8_BV1m34y1T7h8_m4-dialogue_1004449.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1661811_BV1eY411s7a2_p24_BV1eY411s7a2_p24_m4-dialogue_0481880 | [S1] Snack badger. [S2] Let's ride our scooters. [S1] I want to eat popcorn first. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Let's fly the kite. | 25.72 | 2.802724 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1661811_BV1eY411s7a2_p24_BV1eY411s7a2_p24_m4-dialogue_0481880.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_1661811_BV1eY411s7a2_p41_BV1eY411s7a2_p41_m4-dialogue_0275056 | [S1] He jumps onto a boy's backpack. With the boy, the strawberry gets on the ferry. [S2] Ah, I like this place. [S1] So the strawberry stays. | 25.16 | 3.119412 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_1661811_BV1eY411s7a2_p41_BV1eY411s7a2_p41_m4-dialogue_0275056.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_m4-dialogue_0928414 | [S1] You know, I, I don't know, I would never rule anything out, but I, I, I have a very full life right now, and I think that, you know, with a very young daughter and, uh, you know, I have a lot that I wanna do still with my career, um, you know, I, I can't imagine that would be a, a possibility for a long time. [S2] But, you know, New York Mayor, wouldn't that be great? Local politics. [S1] [LAUGHS] | 24.04 | 3.035078 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_m4-dialogue_0928414.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_m4-dialogue_0928415 | [S1] You know, there is a responsible way, I think, to live our lives with technology, where we're also, where we also take care of ourselves. [S2] Right. [S1] Take care of our, our, our mental state. You know, give, give ourselves time and space to be clear in our mind so that we can focus on | 18.04 | 2.960848 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_BV1Rg411F7fs_p109_m4-dialogue_0928415.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098086 | [S1] You know, being a kid, just being a big, a big grown kid, and I loved to have fun. I loved to, to show love. I loved music, I loved art. I just loved being creative. And my mother always kept me in the presence of people. Like, it was times in the 70s where it would be a party in the living room and all the kids would be in the back and they would call me in the living room to come dance 'cause I could dance real good with the big girls. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] [LAUGHS] [S2] What was some of that music that your mother was playing? | 29 | 3.407429 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098086.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098087 | [S1] It was a song called, "I Ain't Gonna Bump No More with This Big Fat Woman." [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] That was, that was one of the songs I used to dance to the most. I ain't gonna bump no more with no big fat woman. [S2] [LAUGHS] And, and growing up in school, I mean, it, you were not a rapper first. You were into music. You sang in the choir. [S1] Yeah. [S2] You were, you were very much a child of the arts, even though, quote, unquote, you were in the LBC. | 26.12 | 2.881019 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098087.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098088 | [S1] Well, like I said, I'm a 70s baby, so in the 70s, we only had certain people to look up to and players, you know, play, I don't know if you understand what a player is, not a football player, a basketball player. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] But a player in the neighborhood had a certain conversation about himself. He'd never speak too loud, and when he spoke, you understood what he said because it was so smooth and so melodic. | 23.2 | 3.238636 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098088.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098089 | [S1] My team, Kashmir and Stampede, um, I wasn't a fan of it at all. I remember the first time they was like, "You know, Twitter people follow you." I'm like, "I don't want nobody following me." [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] It would be weird. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] 'Cause I didn't understand the dialect, you know? I'm like, and there's people be like, "Hey, Snoop, I'm following you." [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] I'm like, "What you mean you following me?" | 20.08 | 2.982315 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098089.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098090 | [S1] Yeah, it's, it really resonates. I mean, one of the ones you posted the other day was, was real simple, but, you know, it just said, find something you love, uh, and do it- [S2] Forever. [S1] ... do it forever. And that's all you said, but it, it was like, oh, he's not just, this isn't just a job. It's a reminder, like, you love this. And being on that journey with you, following you, I feel like your, your followers, even when you read the comments, it's, it's cool to see the way people respond to you and they're inspired by you. | 28.72 | 3.238213 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098090.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098091 | [S1] Do it until you can't do it no more. Then when you're done doing it, then you can look back and enjoy it because I don't get a chance to look at what Snoop Dogg has done. When I see documentaries or things of my past, I have to stop and watch because I'm so busy playing. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] I'm in the game right now, so I can't watch my stats or my highlights 'cause I got another game to play tomorrow. [S2] Amen. | 19.84 | 3.308557 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098091.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098092 | [S1] But at the same time, me and him, we agree to disagree. And then my daughter, she's a singer-songwriter, so I'm hard on her, telling her, "Look, baby, you gotta get it all the way together. And don't be mad when I tell you this, 'cause the public gonna be even meaner than I am." So it's just getting that understanding with the kids and being able to have a relationship with them to where they're my friends. [S2] Mm. [S1] They don't look at me as a mean old dad. They look at me as a cool father. And that's what a lot of | 24.2 | 3.24579 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098092.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098093 | [S1] ... highlight one of the, the top international experiences for you, culture wise. [S2] Performing at Live Aid and Paul McCartney, Bill Gates, David Beckham, and a host of other people that's billionaires was on the side of the stage rocking to my music. And there was one point I just stopped and looked at him and I'm like, "I can't believe y'all know Snoop Dogg." [S1] Bill, Bill Gates. [S2] The Bill Gates. [S1] Like this. [S2] Yeah. | 29.4 | 3.254887 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_BV1Rg411F7fs_p113_m4-dialogue_0098093.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552375 | [S1] Hi. That was nice. Oh, it's great to be here. This is amazing. [S2] Now, we were talking before, you've actually been here before. Is that right? [S1] Yes. | 9.04 | 2.836942 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552375.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552376 | [S1] Yeah. We're, we're a, we're a very forward-thinking company, apparently, having you here when you were 16. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Um, oh, so I want to thank you for being here, first of all, from all of us. Um, this is really an honor and a treat. Um, now you're in the middle of your tour, um, for speak now, and, um, I know that you've posted some videos to your channel, um, sort of outlining your tour and specifically your trip to Asia. Um, and I want to show a clip from, um, when you were in Singapore. Now you're in Chinatown, but the Chinatown of Singapore. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Is that right? | 27.28 | 2.964307 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552376.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552377 | [S1] Yes. Um, we started out the year going on tour and, uh, started off in Asia and then we were in Europe for two months. So it was like three months of major worldwide touring. So, um, Singapore was the first place that we went on the tour. [S2] Cool. All right, let's, let's roll that clip. [S1] I'm sort of fascinated by the waving cats because | 27.48 | 3.380445 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552377.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552378 | [S1] That'll do it. I think that you just said it. That's the essential ingredient is a cat. [S2] Um, now your, your YouTube channel is very popular. I know you have, um, over a half a million subscribers that get your vlogs when you, when you post them, which is really cool. Um, I was, I wanted to ask you off the bat, uh, how important is your channel and social media in general as a tool for expression, but also for connecting with your audience? [S1] I think we've all seen the effects of social media and how that can connect people. And, um, | 27.76 | 2.856684 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552378.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552379 | [S1] So, well, this isn't just our interview, right? This is also your fans interview, and you have some very rabid fans, the Swifties, right? I believe is how they call themselves. [S2] I know, I think it's so cute. They came up with that. [S1] They were very serious, by the way. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] They don't, they don't mess around. They, uh, they submitted 30,000 questions, um, to this interview. And, uh, and over, uh- [S2] There's so many questions. [S1] ... over 100,000 votes. [S2] They're so curious. [S1] Yeah. | 24.48 | 2.92268 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552379.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552380 | [S1] Yeah, so we only can do a few of them. And we also have some from Google, but, um, uh, the big, biggest topic by far was songwriting, 'cause I think that a lot of your fans have a big connection to, um, the stories that you tell in your songs. And so let's start with that topic. And this one comes from PandaBearLover13. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] I mean, a lot of the usernames are not meant to be read out loud, so we'll just have to, uh, for... This is from Florida. Uh, which comes first for you as a songwriter, the music or the lyrics? | 26.48 | 3.40132 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552380.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552381 | [S1] That's a song I wrote sitting on my bedroom floor because I liked a guy and my parents didn't want me to date him. And so I got this idea in my head, it just popped into my head, "You were Romeo, you were throwing pebbles." And my daddy said, "Stay away from Juliet." And I didn't know where in the song that was gonna fit, but I just started there and I built out from there. And, um, it's crazy how the fastest songs that I write end up being my favorites. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] Um, the ones that just happen in just a surge of idea, um, a surge of inspiration. | 29.88 | 3.365964 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552381.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552382 | [S1] ... inspiration. And it's usually something I'm going through at the time. It's very hard for me to, um, come up with just some random metaphor for a situation if I'm not going through it or haven't recently just gone through it. [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] But, um, | 14.52 | 3.315204 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552382.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552383 | [S1] Yeah. We had a lot of questions about, about the process from, um, budding songwriters, um, who submitted questions that are big fan of, fans of yours, um, from Buffalo and a bunch of different places. And, um, I mean, you know, we were wondering, is there, uh, one favorite part of the songwriting process that you have? I mean, is it when you get that idea or when you're sitting on the floor in the bedroom or, you know- [S2] Yes. [S1] ... when you're in the studio? | 22.92 | 3.364175 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552383.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552384 | [S1] I'll say a line and if it's that moment where you're just like, "That, that's the one, that's the line," I have to have about four or five of those lines in a song for me to put it on a record. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Like lines where I'm just like, "Yes." [S2] Mm-hmm. [S1] [LAUGHS] | 14.28 | 3.07524 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552384.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552385 | [S1] Um, so that's my favorite part, is then when the song goes into its phase of being recorded and then being put on an album, and when you're playing it for people for the first time, when it comes across those lines that you really feel are like, I don't know, like, zingers or like, say it really well. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Um, I love watching people's reactions if they, if they, if it comes across. Like, if they get those lines, I'm like, "Yes, I knew it." | 24.76 | 3.255161 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552385.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552386 | [S1] and proud enough of to give to my fans and, and say, "Here, you know, allow this into your life." It has to be like, it has to be two to two and a half years of writing. And that way you know you have your best stuff. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Because I'm so tough on myself. I drive myself insane writing records and, and albums because it's like, I'll write like 40 to 50 songs and then 13 or 14 make it. That's a lot of paring it down and making sure you're getting to the best stuff. [S2] Yeah. [S1] Um, | 29.4 | 3.142136 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552386.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552387 | [S1] So for me, it, it takes a while. And, um, I've been writing ever since I stopped writing the last album. And there's been a lot that's happened. And, um, I never really talk about my personal life, but I write about it. [S2] Yeah. [S1] So that's basically what the album is about, as always. [S2] Yeah. | 16.32 | 3.498627 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552387.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552388 | [S1] Ask them what they think. A lot of times, co-writing, you know, I write really well with people who don't even play instruments or sing, um, because, you know, a lot of times my best co-writers are just really great at giving advice. Like, "Do you think this chorus is too long?" "Yes." Like, "Thank you." [S2] Yeah. [S1] [LAUGHS] [S2] Uh, is there anybody you're working with right now that you could talk about? | 25 | 3.336447 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552388.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552389 | [S1] Yes. Um, you know, for me, since I write so much and I don't know what's gonna end up on the record, it's, um, I never wanna say, "Well, you know, wrote with this person," and, because then what if it doesn't make it on the record, but- [S2] Of course. [S1] Um, and then writing for some other people's projects, um, in which case I feel weird talking about it because it's like their project, so I wanna, well, you know. So yes, but- | 23.4 | 3.131018 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552389.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552390 | [S1] Um, this was a, a, a popular, uh, a lot of votes for this question. This is from Quadratic Formula in Michigan. It's appropriate for the Google. [S2] Wow. [S1] Um, do you sing your own songs in the shower? [S2] Ha. Yeah. [S1] Awesome. That's great. | 25.4 | 2.948236 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552390.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552391 | [S1] You know, like it's just, you're never, ever anywhere for more than two and a half seconds. So, you know, I've written songs in airport bathrooms on paper towels. I've written songs- [S2] What, what song was on a, on a bathroom towel at one point? [S1] Oh, it hasn't come out yet. [S2] Oh, okay. | 17.8 | 2.947881 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552391.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552392 | [S1] Yeah, the ideas, um, always end up in my phone because it has a great recording thing in there. And, um, you know, for me, it's like you just write wherever, whenever you can. And, um, that's been really fun for me because sometimes I'll walk into a hotel room and I'll be like, "I've been here. I wrote back to December here." [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Like it's, it's fun because you have these memories of writing songs all over the world. | 26.44 | 3.161352 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552392.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552393 | [S1] Not at that point in the relationship. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] Because at that point, they're thinking that, you know, I would never have any reason to write a bad song about them. And then it's when, you know, it, it, it, [LAUGHS] when they start to, you know, treat me in a way that wouldn't reflect well on them in a song, if I were to be honest about it. [S2] Oh, okay. Yeah. [S1] I've had a guy be like, | 24.36 | 2.867165 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552393.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552394 | [S1] You're not going to write about this, are you? I'm like, yeah, I am. [S2] I think that's interesting. That's a point in, in a relationship that you would have to have is, this is the part where I tell her not to write a song about me, you know? [S1] Well, and you'd think that they would decide that before asking me on the date or before we become a couple or before all this stuff happens. But it only occurs to, it only, well, him. It only occurred to him when, um, | 26.4 | 2.893852 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552394.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552395 | [S1] When it, when he, it occurred to him that it wouldn't be a good song. [S2] [LAUGHS] I see. Um, do you always write about, um, you know, people that you know? [S1] Yeah, um, because I feel like in a song, I, I love it when a song is a story and the story develops. And, uh, my favorite stories have really beautiful characters, and I feel like you can most accurately describe a character | 24 | 2.860825 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552395.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552397 | [S1] People get picked for different reasons, but it's, it's been crazy lately because a lot of people have been going for the costume route. [S2] Really? [S1] So we'll look out and like, my guitar player will like lean over to me and be like, "That girl is dressed like a chicken." And I, and like, I'm trying to find the meaning. [S2] [LAUGHS] [S1] I don't know why, but, you know, we'll look out and there's like a Santa Claus. | 27.92 | 3.277555 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552397.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552398 | [S1] And those, these are just the person had a Santa Claus outfit. [S2] Or like people who've like duct taped their entire body in neon duct tape. Or people who have just like made giant cupcakes around themselves and they're like, they're this big. Or people who have like dressed up from the mean video or something like that. But then there's just these ones where like the girl's dressed as like, there's like a clown and a starfish. [S1] [LAUGHS] [S2] And we're like, I don't know why, but I love it. [S1] [LAUGHS] | 28.08 | 2.984006 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552398.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552399 | [S1] Like, and so there's, there's been a lot of costume stuff going on lately on the tour. So if you look around and you see someone dressed up as a giant cow and you don't know why, we don't know why either. But it's, it's welcome. [S2] Now, um, this is, uh, I Love Swift One from Toronto, another Canada question. Um, has a fan ever made you cry? [S1] Yeah. Um, you know, for me, like, | 25.48 | 3.462231 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552399.mp3 | [
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bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552400 | [S1] And then you come through a year later and you're like, "Hey Lexi, how are you doing?" She's like, "I'm doing good." And then they, her parents update you and, and then you come by like a year and a half later and she's not there. So it's... [S2] Yeah. [S1] Yeah. [S2] Um, you have all these fans, uh, all over the world of all different ages and, and types and, uh, you know, when you were young, did you think there would be any other career paths that you were gonna take that, that you might not have ended up in this way? | 27.16 | 3.226744 | 24,000 | audio/en/bilibili_data_16653746_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_BV1Rg411F7fs_p116_m4-dialogue_0552400.mp3 | [
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