id stringlengths 9 20 | market_slug stringlengths 5 54 | question stringlengths 10 193 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,641B 1,735B | closeTime int64 1,704B 1,736B | resolvedTime int64 1,727B 1,736B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 ⌀ | volume float64 1k 3.75M | pred_category stringclasses 11 values | pred_subcategory stringclasses 38 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e6gyc7r6rq | is-wicked-going-to-be-a-flop | Is Wicked (2024) going to be a flop? 🧙♀️🧹🎶 | null | 1,725,014,231,508 | 1,734,071,507,687 | 1,734,071,507,687 | NO | 0.01 | 1,545.320652 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
tt7wsfpxxh | -shortfuse-1-in-3-odds-6ohxd0k4o2 | 🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds | null | 1,726,811,849,900 | 1,726,826,249,301 | 1,726,826,336,609 | NO | null | 1,592.465202 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
NZrQI7zSgOy9gLqLqwDG | will-a-specific-ai-image-or-video-m | Will a specific AI image or video model be mentioned by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024? | null | 1,710,975,205,375 | 1,730,087,940,000 | 1,731,199,217,568 | NO | 0.016027 | 11,027.324335 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
kWCRdSdWhKoGiwxyCzpC | acx-2024-will-the-2024-light-duty-e | [ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | null | 1,704,115,921,379 | 1,734,789,600,000 | 1,735,588,855,367 | NO | 0.01 | 16,956.925332 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
8F83YHc9Gfy82C4l5if6 | will-the-conservatives-win-more-vot | Will the Conservatives win more votes than BC United in British Columbia's next election? | null | 1,699,205,369,004 | 1,729,394,771,534 | 1,729,394,771,534 | YES | 0.99 | 22,368.424844 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
5gVQj8OaE3951objmydO | will-the-2024-dnc-and-rnc-nominees | Will the 2024 DNC and RNC Nominees Engage in a Long-Form Debate? | null | 1,692,909,245,393 | 1,730,874,518,335 | 1,730,874,518,335 | NO | 0.01 | 16,632.094292 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
CZWlU4X4qwNCIc6s901y | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-1205d646e7f1 | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Wyoming? | null | 1,670,815,736,312 | 1,731,292,834,638 | 1,731,292,834,638 | NO | 0.01 | 2,924.9151 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NIlQ9R9ElR | will-venom-the-last-dance-receive-a | Will “Venom: The Last Dance" receive a worse CinemaScore than “Venom” & “Venom: Let There Be Carnage”? (both were B+) | null | 1,729,810,739,969 | 1,729,915,080,000 | 1,729,916,263,847 | YES | 0.93 | 3,399.045822 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
wHJhT53kJt2cQZcVxWTE | will-vivek-ramaswamy-in-response-ha | Will Vivek Ramaswamy - IN RESPONSE - harshly criticize Trump before Nov. 2024 election? | null | 1,693,180,491,348 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,732,932,728,043 | NO | 0.044373 | 1,429.797005 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
kiep8sj382 | will-any-of-dockside-extortionist-m | Will any of Dockside Extortionist, Mana Crypt, or Jeweled Lotus be worth ~75% less than their pre-ban prices in 2 weeks? | null | 1,727,151,899,708 | 1,728,359,940,000 | 1,728,360,084,551 | NO | 0.05 | 6,228.006783 | Entertainment | Gaming |
MXZJ7XR8XIWkR8o1ZGMB | will-adobes-senior-management-team | Will Adobe's senior management team say that generative AI is a headwind to Adobe by Sep 2024? | null | 1,684,946,626,807 | 1,727,751,540,000 | 1,727,814,755,716 | NO | 0.04 | 4,463.368107 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
58zkgh1bt6 | will-democrats-win-either-house-of | Will Democrats win either house of the Arizona state legislature in 2024? | null | 1,721,811,215,828 | 1,733,084,083,273 | 1,733,084,083,273 | NO | 0.02733 | 6,427 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
gIvV9tiPw8YoiPT7IRFP | will-hans-niemann-beat-either-hikar | Will Hans Niemann Beat Either Hikaru Nakamura or Magnus Carlsen Again in 2024? | null | 1,707,146,369,126 | 1,727,650,204,933 | 1,727,650,204,933 | YES | 0.99 | 3,689.274151 | Sports | Individual Sports |
r6WWiSW7RLe6p3JfvwJ3 | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-12390d28cb17 | Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Nov 2024 surpass 800k views? | null | 1,706,581,166,993 | 1,733,029,196,395 | 1,733,341,590,491 | NO | 0.01 | 1,110.223254 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
YReb67ANE3kYJwpbDQ5F | will-final-fantasy-vii-rebirth-be-n | Will Final Fantasy VII Rebirth be nominated for any awards at the Game Awards 2024? | null | 1,709,289,082,269 | 1,731,971,904,631 | 1,731,971,904,631 | YES | 0.989991 | 1,485.972292 | Entertainment | Gaming |
kklor9c08u | will-an-australian-bishop-become-a | Will an Australian bishop become a cardinal this year? | null | 1,723,309,630,830 | 1,728,257,523,539 | 1,728,257,523,539 | YES | 0.99 | 7,625.725342 | Politics | Government Structure |
Z45tNE6ZZOeTZuA3OFE7 | will-fortnite-support-macos-again-i | Will Fortnite support MacOS again in 2024? | null | 1,704,097,637,668 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,686,547,942 | NO | 0.046848 | 6,276.894425 | Technology | Gaming |
mvy5bw6sf2 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5zh9nkcqai | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 8 than it closed on Oct 7? | null | 1,728,331,601,754 | 1,728,417,747,966 | 1,728,417,747,966 | YES | 0.99 | 1,644.596911 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
O8qtPVi3e5t6ebMyeQRu | will-data-from-the-james-webb-space | Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope disprove the Big Bang? | null | 1,660,568,810,174 | 1,734,929,940,000 | 1,735,065,148,680 | NO | 0.025649 | 8,062.930258 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
nwl76dGMp0Ye3S2IzZDK | will-it-be-revealed-by-2025-that-de | Will it be revealed, by the end of 2024 that Destiny has lied about something significant during the Divorce Drama? | null | 1,703,387,800,609 | 1,732,611,119,238 | 1,732,611,119,238 | YES | 0.99 | 3,277.063912 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
7bcs50hulr | will-bitcoin-reach-77777-usd-before | Will Bitcoin reach $77,777 USD before the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,513,056,189 | 1,731,223,090,405 | 1,731,223,090,405 | YES | 0.99 | 5,462.987371 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
C6RIRRqgug | will-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-b-A8RcqsRghp--cash | Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,437,201,033 | 1,733,775,767,666 | 1,733,775,903,769 | YES | 0.99 | 1,438.361 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
rDDcRKHfs7FYinPum1vw | will-caltrain-electrification-finis | Will Caltrain electrification finish on schedule in 2024? | null | 1,672,406,504,038 | 1,734,970,350,354 | 1,734,970,350,354 | YES | 0.99 | 9,959.662013 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
YvVqSYEdyiYn7Mdj4oCc | will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the | Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria) | null | 1,674,528,942,520 | 1,730,707,140,000 | 1,730,756,342,661 | NO | 0.014964 | 1,712,107.006222 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
0c1auvnzjm | will-trump-publicly-claim-that-jd-v | Will Trump publicly claim that J.D. Vance was set up by the deep state to undermine him? | null | 1,726,256,129,126 | 1,733,007,540,000 | 1,733,010,022,153 | NO | 0.014556 | 1,274.819962 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
NxFr5f2cax7ZVYY8gVbC | will-tumbles-be-late-to-pay-back-th | Will @Tumbles be late to pay back the 39k loan from Ammon? | null | 1,704,918,345,853 | 1,733,189,976,143 | 1,733,189,976,143 | NO | 0.025933 | 6,066.497293 | Finance | Personal Finance |
PWxZ7ZqVPZAr0ScXtk4u | will-questions-which-resolve-in-ver | Will questions which resolve in very distant future (more than 5 years) be still allowed on Manifold in one year? | null | 1,696,785,677,252 | 1,729,033,140,000 | 1,729,927,396,620 | YES | 0.99 | 1,136.75166 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
zlrcGiYcYTsV5Z9f3ti7 | will-a-republican-win-the-popular-v | Will a Republican win the popular vote by 2037? | null | 1,690,391,955,865 | 1,731,254,316,211 | 1,731,254,316,211 | YES | 0.977893 | 4,957.87112 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nLQr8eoCNfmdqipEV2g3 | will-ohio-and-iowa-vote-within-1-of | Will Ohio and Iowa vote within 1% of each other in 2024? | null | 1,705,880,949,485 | 1,731,734,849,129 | 1,731,734,849,129 | NO | 0.010871 | 1,138.172698 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ftor3d82bi | will-this-market-close-above-50-per-j46ae4m5vw | Will this market close above 50% percent? | null | 1,729,368,474,568 | 1,730,005,140,000 | 1,730,005,347,551 | NO | 0.1 | 67,140.872905 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
TyS25ICaSGXYF6OA3VE8 | will-any-2020-blue-statedistrict-fl | Will ANY 2020 blue states/districts flip red in 2024? | null | 1,693,938,900,968 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,950,337,266 | YES | 0.926661 | 1,425.045946 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
bFXYpTWjaYTO6mVOWEKD | if-he-is-the-republican-nominee-wil | If he is the Republican nominee, will Former Governor Larry Hogan win the 2024 Senate Race in Maryland? | null | 1,707,499,444,165 | 1,730,966,340,000 | 1,731,696,473,348 | NO | 0.048475 | 10,047.828118 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
GmPrrSMaZ2XP58rf8u4i | will-there-be-a-new-crisis-before-t | Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election? | null | 1,701,807,086,543 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,731,839,774,786 | NO | 0.019545 | 7,351.499945 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
rs9vtxfhZWyaYTe4J4Vl | will-the-frontrunner-2024-republica | Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected? | null | 1,692,087,415,113 | 1,730,381,340,000 | 1,730,390,708,081 | YES | 0.867734 | 28,028.035417 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
idN76m5nmPs9N8oyPYdK | will-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2024 | Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024 be related to the Palestine conflict? | null | 1,710,395,392,512 | 1,728,690,087,308 | 1,728,690,087,308 | NO | 0.01 | 11,138.391623 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
ayItxgs6ZhO0rkUURAeu | will-bidens-favorability-be-higher | Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of Halloween? | null | 1,713,972,888,465 | 1,730,429,347,363 | 1,730,429,347,363 | NO | 0.017316 | 7,327.973012 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
lriaygx4m4 | bitcoin-above-63000-on-september-27 | Bitcoin above $63,000 on September 27? | null | 1,727,081,972,922 | 1,727,463,730,804 | 1,727,463,730,804 | YES | 0.99 | 1,461.04258 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
woi3gp04j5 | if-the-fed-cuts-will-the-dems-win-t | If The FED cuts, will the Dems win the presidency? | null | 1,720,984,887,568 | 1,730,899,009,532 | 1,730,899,009,532 | NO | 0.03215 | 11,212.460211 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
9ln3uPEbleLkjwQ5HR4b | will-joe-biden-pardon-hunter-biden-014exmuzui | Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025? | null | 1,718,134,942,616 | 1,733,101,240,238 | 1,733,101,240,238 | YES | 0.991655 | 1,870,124.475121 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
du9tHo7bK65bRPDC1wHu | will-red-bull-win-21-or-more-races | Will Red Bull win 21 or more races in the 2024 Formula 1 season? | null | 1,708,319,483,309 | 1,727,702,997,164 | 1,727,702,997,164 | NO | 0.02 | 6,808.748448 | Sports | Professional Sports |
254sddt2y7 | will-destiny-reach-828k-subscribers | Will Destiny reach 828k subscribers in October 2024? | null | 1,728,373,180,883 | 1,729,606,440,623 | 1,729,606,440,623 | YES | 0.99 | 9,377.712163 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
sRkn1avwtasmkOBlh3Ql | will-chris-murphy-win-reelection-in | Will Chris Murphy win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Connecticut? | null | 1,680,633,684,353 | 1,731,289,490,745 | 1,731,289,490,745 | YES | 0.980302 | 1,150.743052 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NZRdOZcChg | will-gukesh-dommaraju-beat-ding-lir | Will Gukesh Dommaraju beat Ding Liren in the 2024 World Chess Championship? | null | 1,729,987,130,653 | 1,734,025,898,047 | 1,734,025,898,047 | YES | 0.991131 | 393,844.608523 | Sports | Individual Sports |
KsWhtas7MSB4ksYof4Yl | if-the-republican-nominee-wins-flor | If the Republican nominee wins Florida, will they win the presidency (2024)? | null | 1,690,426,380,422 | 1,730,877,710,316 | 1,730,877,710,316 | YES | 0.907989 | 2,911.767397 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
pkSVR8UBPSD2F61SySjN | will-team-jumbovisma-win-zero-grand | Will Visma | Lease a Bike win zero grand tours and 1 monument (not WVA) in 2024? | null | 1,701,721,607,056 | 1,728,922,084,457 | 1,728,922,084,457 | NO | 0.01 | 1,595.554239 | Sports | Professional Sports |
icotel6eaq | will-trump-win-the-2024-election--cash | Will Trump win the 2024 Election? | null | 1,726,588,850,244 | 1,730,930,891,970 | 1,730,930,891,970 | YES | 0.996113 | 183,262.057385 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
vmgjxQReAWNtjMIyHkT3 | will-trump-have-an-outburst-during | Will trump have an outburst during his NYC criminal trial that gets him thrown in jail? | null | 1,713,232,923,390 | 1,731,568,103,876 | 1,731,568,103,876 | NO | 0.08277 | 2,082.394604 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
CMd5l4hdly3fJfuN5plj | will-biden-take-part-in-a-twitter-s | Will Biden take part in a Twitter Space as part of his campaign? | null | 1,685,217,889,511 | 1,730,839,920,000 | 1,730,854,938,927 | NO | 0.149837 | 12,201.411399 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
GEDm4K2smDkvgKNd1QtF | will-donald-trump-be-knocked-out-of | Will Donald Trump be knocked out of the race because of judicial issues after winning the Republican nomination? | null | 1,697,990,300,216 | 1,730,966,340,000 | 1,731,228,908,930 | NO | 0.010104 | 2,135.419463 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
P8XDlVq05lw128oU9IGH | will-donald-trump-win-georgia-in-th | Will Donald Trump win Georgia in the 2024 presidential election? | null | 1,714,675,471,290 | 1,730,926,410,051 | 1,730,926,410,051 | YES | 0.98375 | 9,821.175098 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
HJ8qwkJCYnCLsOhUAAfB | will-arizona-vote-the-same-party-fo | Will Arizona vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024? | null | 1,686,435,412,680 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,731,555,169,817 | NO | 0.135834 | 2,980.774331 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
psu0099v93 | will-lord-peter-hendy-have-left-his | Will Lord Peter Hendy have left his post as Minister of State for Rail by the end of October 2024? | null | 1,725,183,364,784 | 1,730,505,540,000 | 1,730,508,174,504 | NO | 0.010184 | 9,130.045611 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
Ws4nIXshSkiHxqayyh6N | will-enel-appear-in-egghead | Will Enel appear in egghead? | null | 1,706,579,255,814 | 1,732,049,526,479 | 1,732,049,526,479 | NO | 0.010411 | 36,015.519427 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
4ipChlgNwljQxztkFhcU | will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-super | Will Jimmy Carter live to see Super Bowl LIX? | null | 1,711,584,527,534 | 1,735,509,611,565 | 1,735,509,611,565 | NO | 0.013029 | 13,542.795011 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
3oIfaNHi2F5hH8BJTJqn | will-tumbles-reach-platinum-in-the | Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas? | null | 1,712,105,015,922 | 1,735,199,940,000 | 1,735,209,275,396 | NO | 0.01 | 1,666.369115 | Sports | Gaming |
JiAVQQmR0j6KPFuh2AU1 | if-the-top-chatbot-in-2025-thinks-b | If the top chatbot in 2025 "thinks" before responding to a difficult prompt, will its thoughts be human-interpretable? | null | 1,702,156,604,193 | 1,726,719,453,859 | 1,726,719,453,859 | YES | 0.75 | 1,217.440372 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
RCNqqD4a8PNTr2NMWgyR | nfl-week-10-nov-10-2024-will-the-ne | NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the New Orleans Saints (home) beat the Atlanta Falcons (away)? | null | 1,715,834,213,668 | 1,731,291,791,998 | 1,731,291,791,998 | YES | 0.99 | 1,172.703584 | Sports | Professional Sports |
2RQA89hyuI | tug-of-war-hC9QCqtUsc | Tug of war | null | 1,733,330,162,497 | 1,733,461,140,000 | 1,733,461,270,970 | NO | 0.281319 | 1,392.119688 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
5NyIO26ltt | will-assad-flee-syria-by-2025 | Will Assad flee Syria by 2025? | null | 1,733,532,465,277 | 1,733,647,692,567 | 1,733,681,876,266 | YES | 0.83964 | 26,546.12853 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
thfohxhnff | will-anyone-say-ai-artificial-intel | Will anyone say "AI", "Artificial intelligence" or "GPT" during the Vance vs Walz debate? | null | 1,727,814,784,470 | 1,727,852,340,000 | 1,728,349,728,651 | NO | 0.01 | 12,053.488737 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
e5nqp8c3b6 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-3xqz8y6tix | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 16 than
it closed on Oct 15? | null | 1,729,022,699,470 | 1,729,108,981,542 | 1,729,108,981,542 | YES | 0.99 | 1,217.663268 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
W6B63hYGADLjPvsrYaHA | will-alaska-be-closer-than-virginia | Will Alaska be closer than Virginia in the 2024 POTUS election? | null | 1,687,494,074,450 | 1,731,295,167,768 | 1,731,295,167,768 | NO | 0.024617 | 7,733.844878 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
oDSS1aoZWha9nPk38Jyg | bing-stops-being-tricked-by-the-mis | Bing stops being tricked by the misleading query: "The 16 executive departments of the US government are:" | null | 1,684,775,492,791 | 1,726,469,940,000 | 1,727,108,731,795 | YES | 0.95 | 12,590.301266 | Politics | Government Structure |
CA9WWJWSdGGbSCpYAQMN | will-india-legalise-samesex-marriag | Will India legalise same-sex marriage before 2025? | null | 1,692,529,268,576 | 1,735,669,740,000 | 1,735,674,257,863 | NO | 0.022524 | 1,475.757737 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
Ig3NhAEBDcsTJzXWyEDy | will-usdrub-exchange-rate-stay-high-b1eb35c4f93e | Will USD/RUB exchange rate stay higher than 150 for at least one week in 2024? | null | 1,703,251,147,352 | 1,735,387,589,928 | 1,735,387,589,928 | NO | 0.015019 | 11,763.109916 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
XtQih9PRIQZJSZP96DJG | will-hwang-junho-still-be-alive-whe | Will Hwang Jun-Ho still be alive when "Squid Game" returns for season 2? | null | 1,655,320,088,049 | 1,733,100,027,733 | 1,733,100,027,733 | YES | 0.99 | 9,391.620463 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
dbjrslwydx | will-trading-on-the-kalshi-presiden | Will trading on the Kalshi Presidential market stop for a day relating to CFTC proceedings before the 2024 election? | null | 1,728,566,380,459 | 1,730,937,832,509 | 1,730,937,832,509 | NO | 0.02 | 11,800 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
d6pnpuhshq | 11-traders-on-this-market | 11 traders on this Market? | null | 1,733,532,974,043 | 1,733,550,879,755 | 1,733,550,879,755 | YES | 0.99 | 1,059.124897 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
oiDJH0f1JVpAN8KTeSk0 | will-scientists-create-artificial-b | Will scientists create artificial blood to be used on any patient by the end of 2024? | null | 1,666,228,219,469 | 1,735,648,173,508 | 1,735,648,173,508 | NO | 0.010119 | 8,745.640919 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
E0qCvI5aL1O9eyhp2ElR | will-bitcoin-reach-80k-by-the-end-o | Will Bitcoin reach $80K by the end of 2024? | null | 1,709,912,989,788 | 1,731,261,506,330 | 1,731,261,506,330 | YES | 0.99 | 24,810.871125 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QCFdPohmdMypOouFPJi4 | will-a-new-official-weapon-be-added | Will a new official weapon be added to Team Fortress 2 before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD? | null | 1,705,345,343,419 | 1,733,371,614,170 | 1,733,371,614,170 | NO | 0.010957 | 2,139.994652 | Gaming | Gaming |
bNUrKLEmlnuK4j3Mk6e9 | will-spacex-win-the-doj-lawsuit-on | Will SpaceX win the DoJ lawsuit on its hiring practices? | null | 1,693,047,695,005 | 1,724,696,940,000 | 1,727,722,903,714 | YES | 0.71 | 3,476.457417 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
I2ru2Y0TiQNwGl6dCbpO | will-mitt-romney-endorse-trump | Will Mitt Romney endorse Trump? | null | 1,681,992,584,822 | 1,731,128,340,000 | 1,731,412,055,590 | NO | 0.010765 | 7,438.090253 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
s0xvPUIq32RpxvowjjWZ | will-either-happen-trump-is-convict | Will either happen: Trump is convicted of a crime AND wins election OR Trump is not convicted AND loses election | null | 1,706,300,373,785 | 1,730,962,740,000 | 1,730,986,445,590 | YES | 0.986202 | 1,190.2095 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
GXFH7imeEt9OieCurCtN | will-the-democrats-win-both-pa-and | Will the Democrats win both PA and MI in 2024 Presidential election? | null | 1,709,002,575,131 | 1,732,214,372,496 | 1,732,214,372,496 | NO | 0.01 | 1,741.356355 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
bgjlnGaI58RPoFdnHdHp | nfl-week-17-dec-26-2024-will-the-ch | NFL Week 17 (Dec 26 2024): Will the Chicago Bears (home) beat the Seattle Seahawks (away)? | null | 1,715,834,651,402 | 1,735,434,900,000 | 1,735,438,232,339 | NO | 0.01027 | 1,294.998706 | Sports | Professional Sports |
oyAiIsUjL486mVZwB7i8 | will-openai-have-a-valuation-either-9c5147a174e9 | Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2025? | null | 1,673,042,094,325 | 1,727,901,067,682 | 1,727,901,067,682 | YES | 0.98 | 8,784.611281 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
IlglnPucSS | will-gladiator-2-receive-a-higher-c | Will “Gladiator 2" receive a higher CinemaScore than "Wicked"? | null | 1,731,966,902,010 | 1,732,334,340,000 | 1,732,462,922,817 | NO | 0.089223 | 2,438.529032 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
NsgZLbr1HkTTQVfnKFVW | will-any-mr-beast-video-posted-in-2 | Will any Mr Beast video posted in 2024 exceed 300M views? | null | 1,710,534,025,732 | 1,734,860,141,803 | 1,734,860,141,803 | YES | 0.99 | 1,801.214006 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
apTtOiDmCS6bEspx5ilL | during-the-course-of-the-2024-elect | During the course of the 2024 presidential election process, will any significant world flipping event occur? | null | 1,686,670,836,547 | 1,733,156,370,875 | 1,733,156,370,875 | YES | 0.919555 | 11,445.697064 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
Gg26GGEac4upwCOg1gYz | will-90-of-online-content-be-ai-gen | Will >90% of online content be AI generated by 2025? | null | 1,690,851,726,108 | 1,735,651,740,000 | 1,735,677,317,303 | NO | 0.05375 | 1,125.478556 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
LDpMGxok3mQd2yN7iM4a | will-tsla-double-between-2024-and-t | Will TSLA double between 2024 and the end of 2025? | null | 1,704,213,864,496 | 1,730,909,088,023 | 1,730,909,088,023 | YES | 0.99002 | 3,567.048756 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
FPgMpm76jFHsIe1iJ2P6 | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-cbcf76fa3af7 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Texas? | null | 1,670,857,069,762 | 1,730,913,943,985 | 1,730,913,943,985 | NO | 0.01925 | 23,912.170034 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
rn0wqey9vj | will-mira-return-to-twitter-before | Will Mira return to Twitter before EOY 2025? | null | 1,728,656,031,268 | 1,731,538,416,002 | 1,731,538,416,002 | YES | 0.99 | 9,135.432587 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
y9qhdctnLQ | san-francisco-proposition-k-passes--cash | San Francisco Proposition K passes: Great Highway Recreational Space 2024-11 | null | 1,729,874,351,838 | 1,731,205,899,144 | 1,731,352,387,183 | YES | 0.99 | 1,459.262111 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
0l26ZuE0gE | daily-coinflip-tPU5dsuNCd | Daily coinflip | null | 1,730,254,402,440 | 1,730,426,400,000 | 1,730,432,102,458 | YES | 0.504421 | 6,253.037537 | Entertainment | Gaming |
kMVWTaRdG01MCAgzIvof | will-the-democratic-presidential-ca | Will the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024 win any states that voted for Trump in 2020? | null | 1,680,625,985,486 | 1,731,228,404,081 | 1,731,228,404,081 | NO | 0.01 | 14,087.57613 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
4PG1NBXdql5NsGIlZy8v | does-gary-wang-get-1-years-sentence | Does Gary Wang get >=1 years sentence? | null | 1,670,894,474,114 | 1,733,253,142,403 | 1,733,253,142,403 | NO | 0.0488 | 7,333.646088 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
z3sneupryk | will-trump-be-the-target-of-a-3rd-a | Will Trump be the target of a 3rd assassination attempt before election? | null | 1,726,445,598,508 | 1,730,955,540,000 | 1,735,407,621,816 | NO | 0.01 | 2,178.015582 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
emzh95x7h1 | daily-coinflip-mhydj6xum3 | Daily coinflip | null | 1,729,398,555,024 | 1,729,569,540,000 | 1,729,569,944,666 | YES | 0.51 | 6,188.885636 | Gaming | Gaming |
HFrQC3ZQjJRdKqyZZbeS | will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo | Will Midjourney v7 be released before Nov 2024? | null | 1,705,772,678,686 | 1,730,933,940,000 | 1,731,090,022,950 | NO | 0.01 | 1,506.845819 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
539pskdksHLPZqajyJKq | will-a-sleeper-agent-attack-on-a-ma | Will a Sleeper Agent Attack on a major LLM (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) cause significant real-life consequences in 2024? | null | 1,705,127,290,858 | 1,735,678,474,722 | 1,735,678,479,558 | NO | 0.044997 | 2,262.300512 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
DL3LdG3vohC8PslBMXwy | will-russia-launch-an-armed-attack-a9741c920e05 | Will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO member by the end of September 2024? | null | 1,707,355,580,151 | 1,727,733,540,000 | 1,727,734,527,197 | NO | 0.01 | 5,451.72603 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
wo6qgu8xjq | will-arsenii-become-a-cracked-progr | Will arsenii become a cracked programmer by the end of the summer? | null | 1,719,379,864,009 | 1,725,173,940,000 | 1,734,692,567,041 | NO | 0.64 | 1,064.652221 | Technology | Computing & Software |
RCYU0A3rzXehiJjqNYUk | will-stripe-go-public-by-the-end-of | Will Stripe go public by the end of 2024? | null | 1,692,262,329,978 | 1,735,669,740,000 | 1,735,674,205,594 | NO | 0.017994 | 9,868.299227 | Finance | Corporate Finance |
5JyzBvet827GF7Hu9WRr | will-jon-tester-be-reelected | Will Jon Tester be reëlected? | null | 1,677,271,834,925 | 1,730,946,670,349 | 1,730,946,670,349 | NO | 0.004021 | 378,105.804634 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ay2k5fe0j5 | will-the-2024-presidential-election-o2np2rj8v9 | Will the 2024 presidential election be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes? | null | 1,725,148,730,576 | 1,731,092,966,879 | 1,731,092,966,879 | NO | 0.01 | 43,929.577815 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
WFlDb6LZxp6mdSjGTWcO | -will-the-sp-500-indexspinx-close-l-a0ed92dcc724 | 🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Lower Than 4,499.99 At Any Point During Q2-Q4 2024? | null | 1,710,764,804,169 | 1,735,664,400,000 | 1,735,678,960,578 | NO | 0.01679 | 7,462.697101 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
TFvVRhRXjmnsffLyCWik | will-destiny-have-a-public-falling | Will destiny have a public falling out with anyone he considered a friend in 2024? | null | 1,708,904,051,217 | 1,734,956,202,150 | 1,734,956,202,150 | YES | 0.939728 | 5,446.695994 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
CLIZdnyhdt | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-p0qzt0RAZ9 | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1132 and 1133? | null | 1,730,828,540,991 | 1,733,126,340,000 | 1,733,185,439,546 | NO | 0.140896 | 1,555.213462 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
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