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ulju9npeh1
if-trump-wins-will-he-offer-rfk-a-p
If Trump wins, will he offer RFK Jr. a position in his administration?
null
1,724,265,684,341
1,732,134,370,126
1,732,134,370,126
YES
0.984634
16,942.845873
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
qpsvv8l1x6
will-the-mike-tyson-vs-jake-paul-fi
Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul fight happen on Nov 15 on Netflix as planned?
null
1,721,187,690,975
1,731,733,140,000
1,731,785,242,868
YES
0.99
1,643.921846
Sports
Professional Sports
yRTdxtWoyDaZN3ShQHSD
will-a-sequel-to-slay-the-spire-be
Will a sequel to "Slay the Spire" be announced in 2024?
null
1,705,960,571,451
1,712,782,028,854
1,729,025,952,311
YES
1
7,544.52955
Gaming
Video Games
cnSRfgHxJPEd2YBeShig
will-max-score-more-poles-than-pere-ad4b867424e2
Will Max Verstappen score more poles than Perez does P3+ in 2024?
null
1,712,873,720,851
1,732,485,155,381
1,732,485,155,381
YES
0.99
2,300.495579
Sports
Individual Sports
ri1wy42x63
will-supreme-court-justice-sonia-so
Will Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor retire before the presidential election in November?
null
1,719,587,101,565
1,730,784,051,995
1,730,784,051,995
NO
0.023065
6,423.106093
Politics
Public Policy & Social Issues
XMVqPb8XUKZG5QChhlai
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-66520e283b7c
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Nevada?
null
1,670,857,061,401
1,732,262,760,013
1,732,262,760,013
YES
0.99
3,180.592792
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
Cn8q6SscC6
will-the-killer-of-brian-thompson-b-A8RcqsRghp
Will the killer of Brian Thompson be arrested by the end of 2024?
null
1,733,344,763,637
1,733,775,767,666
1,733,775,767,666
YES
0.99
118,850.851918
Politics
Public Policy & Social Issues
SnL2y9jZ0eAZO6sYNovu
in-november-2024-presidential-elect
In November 2024 presidential election, will the major party candidates be Kamala Harris and Nikki Haley?
null
1,708,783,121,217
1,730,869,140,000
1,730,901,591,455
NO
0.013157
3,216.929891
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
p10g7bt445
will-trump-improve-his-margin-with-490adf7c6cf7--cash
Will Trump improve his margin with Black voters in 2024?
null
1,729,692,209,435
1,731,034,070,186
1,731,034,070,186
YES
0.989937
1,532.482975
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
y0xp4ber3j
will-the-sf-giants-make-the-playoff
Will the SF Giants make the playoffs this year?
null
1,724,365,621,208
1,727,013,120,186
1,727,013,120,186
NO
0.27
1,513.767929
Sports
Professional Sports
qpKHnXWIoKMlGM3vUxQI
argentina-will-officially-announce
Argentina will officially announce plans for dollarization by 11/20/24
null
1,705,429,536,017
1,733,029,140,000
1,733,162,763,904
NO
0.024972
6,636.794859
Politics
Public Policy & Social Issues
4z7z77E8fPWi7e46eU3B
will-the-democratic-party-do-better
Will the democratic party do better in Michigan than in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election?
null
1,709,158,831,822
1,731,131,940,000
1,731,359,163,074
NO
0.01
1,750.063348
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
X79bm4hJVhWl6KktsUOW
will-destiny-stop-taking-vyvanse-fo
Will Destiny stop taking Vyvanse for 2+ weeks in 2024?
null
1,702,844,810,010
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,686,347,022
NO
0.036779
3,951.563131
Politics
Public Policy & Social Issues
p2EsOhSEOg
donald-trump-meets-with-marine-le-p
Donald Trump meets with Marine Le Pen during his Paris trip
null
1,733,192,385,370
1,733,788,800,000
1,733,850,701,757
NO
0.024141
10,928.101732
Politics
Political Parties & Ideologies
ikS2mmaXe4GxW5rYQPk2
will-spacex-try-to-land-a-booster-a
Will SpaceX try to land a Booster at Boca Chica in 2024?
null
1,712,686,591,616
1,729,361,012,740
1,729,361,012,740
YES
0.99
27,050.312746
Technology
Tech Industry & Business
YVESqVgsquCfPAwXIGUH
will-gavin-newsom-be-the-democratic-bec70b181c88
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Nominee for president in 2024
null
1,696,890,066,132
1,733,073,081,276
1,733,073,081,276
NO
0.01
2,947.69461
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
MrocXF6CpxuOdTPY0Ghz
will-weed-marijuana-be-rescheduled
Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day?
null
1,714,499,723,283
1,730,832,684,020
1,730,832,684,020
NO
0.002317
43,554.494556
Politics
Public Policy & Social Issues
yWVqUTqVgoYIr498sasC
will-the-january-6th-case-against-t
Will the January 6th Case against Trump have a mistrial/hung jury before election day?
null
1,706,154,042,557
1,730,966,340,000
1,731,696,487,710
NO
0.011669
11,719.310257
Politics
Domestic Policy
OFUsr1P9ZeM2JMNjUHAe
will-ron-desantis-be-accused-of-sex
Will Ron DeSantis be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election?
null
1,669,973,059,333
1,730,851,140,000
1,730,851,808,819
NO
0.028894
10,832.961052
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
lq4gCg4nfuCK8MBfELv2
will-jimmy-carter-die-on-the-same-d
Will Jimmy Carter die on the same day of the year as any other United States president has?
null
1,709,225,054,095
1,735,522,737,958
1,735,522,737,958
NO
0.01
2,946.217758
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
9nqdg0RUEI
bitcoin-above-93k-on-thanksgiving
Bitcoin above $93K on Thanksgiving?
null
1,731,836,365,954
1,732,781,831,638
1,732,781,831,638
YES
0.993151
35,199.921703
Finance
Markets & Trading
9L99rPruI1LWEFyPXkJ0
will-linkin-park-release-a-new-albu
Will Linkin Park release a new album (post-Chester’s death) this decade?
null
1,711,753,153,735
1,734,184,896,165
1,734,184,896,165
YES
0.99
4,541.223589
Entertainment
Music & Audio
wfuxsvp0x8
given-trump-wins-all-7-swing-states
Given Trump wins all 7 swing states, will he flip another "Likely Dem" state or district?
null
1,729,106,771,735
1,731,736,740,000
1,731,737,930,737
NO
0.01
1,021.558957
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
pYoKR39TqotcAMvvcwTB
will-tsmc-be-said-by-anyone-in-a-pr
Will "TSMC" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
null
1,712,481,216,092
1,730,433,540,000
1,731,199,203,408
NO
0.010152
12,790.21393
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
HNhIf8mtH7nvr8PXbmYr
will-research-on-aiml-win-a-nobel-p
will research on AI/ML win a nobel prize by 2030?
null
1,696,962,492,531
1,728,477,162,148
1,728,477,162,148
YES
0.99
12,665.71455
Technology
Emerging Technologies
2p20jp89lp
will-the-email-open-rate-of-my-jimm
Will the email open rate of my "Jimmy Carter's 100th Birthday!" Manifold newsletter be ≥20% in two days?
null
1,727,822,027,434
1,728,025,140,000
1,728,026,609,720
YES
0.95
2,092.204109
Politics
Election & Campaigns
XP3aWZWeFflV2aF3nfsP
will-piastri-get-more-points-then-r
Will Piastri get more Points then Russel in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
null
1,713,794,072,182
1,733,669,767,051
1,733,669,768,553
YES
0.99
1,156.364783
Sports
Individual Sports
d7rjq6yni2
will-chrome-os-reach-250-market-sha
Will Chrome os reach 2.50% market share by the end of the year
null
1,728,498,791,550
1,735,077,600,000
1,735,114,306,283
NO
0.036153
8,680.139529
Technology
Computing & Software
FHEm2xIDE1ydcuBmN0YW
will-ai-be-able-to-correctly-plot-d
Will AI be able to correctly plot data in MS Paint before October 2024?
null
1,695,411,273,383
1,727,852,340,000
1,731,289,129,578
NO
0.114437
1,967.876281
Technology
Emerging Technologies
oNWvoOwKodHVryILbumw
will-trump-win-us-election-in-2024
will trump win us election in 2024
null
1,704,214,139,714
1,732,075,993,891
1,732,075,993,891
YES
0.99
10,117.665973
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
UDh8a3UdnK06k62EK0Nc
will-invocare-be-acquired-by-anothe
Will InvoCare be acquired by another company before the end of 2024?
null
1,683,130,143,624
1,733,452,304,391
1,733,452,304,391
YES
0.993127
2,502.106466
Finance
Corporate Finance
5jxhejocgz
will-the-nebraska-college-football
Will the Nebraska college football team go 7-0 in the 2024 season
null
1,725,942,055,005
1,726,890,499,523
1,726,890,499,523
NO
0.01
1,168.316112
Sports
Team Sports
Ul09FLKHT4PKvGIq1JDu
will-a-republican-win-arizona-for-p
Will a Republican win Arizona for President by 2050?
null
1,681,959,565,635
1,732,829,051,069
1,732,829,051,069
YES
0.989005
2,084.659504
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
ylIeL2goFZ1Wx3wQtCpy
will-the-2024-movie-civil-war-by-al
Will the 2024 movie Civil War by Alex Garland make $150 million at the worldwide box office?
null
1,702,622,944,352
1,733,515,688,166
1,733,515,688,166
NO
0.01
10,510.767909
Entertainment
Movies & Television
do3mHJfacRYKTh8FsQc8
will-the-election-be-sooner-or-late
Will the "2024 Election be Sooner or Later Than Planned"?
null
1,691,669,781,301
1,731,329,925,553
1,731,329,925,553
NO
0.011065
2,926.590847
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
8LuOVSom2pi6DasnIvKH
will-the-price-of-bitcoin-hit-90000
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $90,000 before 2025?
null
1,710,370,381,968
1,731,637,558,909
1,731,637,558,909
YES
0.992744
6,848.952517
Finance
Markets & Trading
tR9bMB0JZ3Az7CoD047q
will-a-third-party-candidate-win-20
Will a third party candidate win 2024 US presidential election?
null
1,699,564,063,996
1,731,193,011,640
1,731,193,011,640
NO
0.01
3,792.664205
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
dpTKFFqG1i5LTzlFcy7n
will-the-us-presidential-election-2
Will the US presidential election (2024) be postponed?
null
1,710,937,680,992
1,730,912,945,268
1,730,912,945,268
NO
0.013329
8,067.16453
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
n6yuZpm3vUoQKGNJYE9F
will-jakob-ingebrigtsen-win-two-gol
Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen win two gold medals in the 1500m/5000m double at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
null
1,697,747,472,047
1,723,521,540,000
1,735,632,344,841
NO
0.01006
1,472.234106
Sports
Individual Sports
GTr0OayuoeUBedTenmu9
vox-predictions-openai-will-release
Vox predictions: OpenAI will release ChatGPT-5 by the end of November 2024
null
1,704,456,748,701
1,733,007,540,000
1,733,465,709,032
NO
0.01
1,760.532855
Technology
Emerging Technologies
XiaVmWpyTVYSv9uGttXD
will-panfilo-finish-1-in-a-manifold
Will @Panfilo finish #1 in a Manifold Master League in 2024?
null
1,704,246,013,591
1,733,591,761,467
1,733,591,761,467
NO
0.013152
2,139.208551
Sports
Professional Sports
ifkc5y715m
will-reflection-llama-31-70b-be-pro
Will Reflection Llama 3.1 70B be proven to beat Llama 3.1 405B Instruct in GPQA by the end of September 2024?
null
1,725,813,602,527
1,727,704,740,000
1,727,705,157,105
NO
0.01
1,198.74619
Technology
Emerging Technologies
oNkhkEQ0gkGsyaXWMtMv
will-fernando-alonso-win-an-f1-race
Will Fernando Alonso win an F1 race in 2024?
null
1,708,500,288,184
1,733,644,740,000
1,733,680,136,342
NO
0.042988
1,223.27708
Sports
Individual Sports
e6jlnweinj
will-trump-reach-60-before-election
Will Trump reach 60% before election day?
null
1,724,357,423,728
1,729,575,263,510
1,729,575,263,510
YES
0.99
26,157.907941
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
VHqWEXUwhL2FuKyork2v
will-there-be-at-least-one-new-york-6f2cfc02452e
Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2024?
null
1,704,182,605,951
1,735,448,340,000
1,735,682,290,247
YES
0.965933
10,788.503837
Technology
Emerging Technologies
0mhzbvxcbd
will-microsoft-acquire-cursor-befor
Will Microsoft acquire Cursor before the end of 2024
null
1,725,106,294,574
1,735,689,291,156
1,735,689,291,156
NO
0.034872
6,398.406434
Technology
Tech Industry & Business
xPdhn4oIeR5jd7rRFlmM
will-intels-cpu-market-share-drop-b
Will Intels CPU market share drop below 60% by the end of 2024?
null
1,698,101,388,228
1,734,550,511,811
1,734,550,511,811
NO
0.060563
6,068.653149
Technology
Tech Industry & Business
BrSY28iomyQjnx626STG
will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?
null
1,708,221,466,430
1,732,122,505,770
1,732,122,505,770
YES
0.8
4,191.623755
Gaming
Gaming
dBd12ycgw5G1BOjoBJN8
will-caitlin-clark-score-50-points
Will Caitlin Clark score 50+ points in any game during her first WNBA season?
null
1,716,647,700,433
1,729,388,661,266
1,729,388,661,266
NO
0.01
9,530.936388
Sports
Professional Sports
zsdu0AQNpO
will-usyk-win-the-rematch-against-f
Will Usyk win the rematch against Fury?
null
1,731,614,593,902
1,734,929,940,000
1,735,280,244,743
YES
0.990405
1,836.767067
Sports
Individual Sports
VNzUuywR0KQI3Zw5Zmgk
will-trump-receive-at-least-60-mill
Will Trump receive at least 60 million votes?
null
1,659,571,109,134
1,731,695,066,255
1,731,695,066,255
YES
0.99
32,235.791696
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
ZPAnV0cFwgevbNt7eeIo
will-the-creators-of-any-iteration
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
null
1,664,791,313,131
1,728,479,443,470
1,728,479,443,470
YES
0.99
15,921.975271
Technology
Emerging Technologies
t092SglIU9
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-8QCSzgnd5S
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 13 than it closed on Nov 12?
null
1,731,445,254,134
1,731,531,766,933
1,731,531,766,933
YES
0.99
1,031.072175
Finance
Markets & Trading
wThdoESliXTez40sx5Sx
will-messi-be-named-most-valuable-p-37b4f9d4a473
Will Messi be named Most Valuable Player for the MLS 2024 season?
null
1,689,862,111,350
1,733,581,802,084
1,733,581,802,084
YES
0.331123
1,693.18947
Sports
Professional Sports
4be8r1648q
will-donald-agree-to-a-second-debat
Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?
null
1,726,045,803,438
1,730,831,340,000
1,730,861,211,552
NO
0.009648
956,630.418136
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
aa27gyuryx
will-the-trump-campaign-leaks-be-pu
Will the Trump campaign leaks be published?
null
1,723,660,951,637
1,727,460,622,487
1,727,460,622,487
YES
0.97
24,133.307257
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
7dLH4fcgRuzFNdLc7Nor
will-trump-say-desanctimonious-agai
Will Trump say DeSanctimonious again during the election?
null
1,705,887,586,836
1,730,879,940,000
1,730,941,762,701
NO
0.122956
2,062.291859
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
BKZ6eVVi5zXukkn4Sy77
2024-formula-1-season-will-fernando
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Fernando Alonso finish 6th or higher in the Drivers Championship?
null
1,700,757,539,915
1,733,685,742,480
1,733,685,742,480
NO
0.01
12,119.339721
Sports
Individual Sports
sqrl6z15ii
will-kamala-harris-and-pokimane-tal
Will Kamala Harris and Pokimane talk together publicly before the election?
null
1,723,082,818,333
1,730,997,337,787
1,730,997,337,787
NO
0.01
1,159.30628
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
Pu76Dviq4en3zPBAQXXu
will-china-be-competitive-in-the-ll
Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?
null
1,697,204,488,041
1,729,085,399,412
1,729,085,399,412
YES
0.87
286,105.839105
Technology
Emerging Technologies
9Sg9UNdS5p
will-bitcoin-hit-100k-in-2024
Will Bitcoin hit 100K in 2024?
null
1,731,375,415,869
1,733,520,228,003
1,733,520,228,003
YES
0.9945
43,494.663985
Finance
Markets & Trading
GtWHv5naojQn1TEicKSA
will-san-diego-state-be-in-the-pac1
Will San Diego State be in the Pac12 for the 2024 football season?
null
1,682,645,176,360
1,726,729,140,000
1,727,058,993,338
NO
0.01
1,617.31695
Sports
Team Sports
UhAcEsdcZE
will-one-presidential-candidate-dro
Will one presidential candidate drop below 30% odds then go on to win?
null
1,730,683,438,059
1,730,890,233,680
1,730,890,233,680
NO
0.057096
4,859.268565
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
s0kxja2fr6
will-i-get-into-a-fight-at-this-con
Will I get into a fight at this conference?
null
1,727,974,074,201
1,728,240,490,208
1,728,240,490,208
NO
0.05
27,983.481119
Politics
Public Policy & Social Issues
tf6c5f74ry
will-republicans-win-the-popular-vo-llm5g905qm--cash
Will Republicans win the popular vote but lose the election?
null
1,728,252,702,840
1,731,050,655,566
1,731,050,655,566
NO
0.009086
3,673.831796
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
oSwNzCwYDDir5JvOkYsC
will-methanesat-discover-a-major-me
Will MethaneSAT discover a major methane leak in 2024?
null
1,709,842,581,067
1,735,659,034,609
1,735,659,034,609
NO
0.01
4,814.367455
Technology
Emerging Technologies
8do4n9coq6
will-astro-bot-win-in-any-category
Will Astro Bot win in any category at the Game Awards 2024?
null
1,725,581,065,391
1,734,053,200,045
1,734,053,200,045
YES
0.989976
9,235
Gaming
individual sports
vHvVr634WmHXnTVcMFvb
will-manifold-mana-m-be-listed-on-a
Will Manifold MANA (Ṁ) be listed on a crypto exchange by 2025?
null
1,681,368,881,794
1,735,660,800,000
1,735,676,774,459
NO
0.024274
11,353.988856
Finance
Markets & Trading
dJdq7n9bEHDP1cLfLg9j
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-0440ccfa4c36
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Maine?
null
1,690,202,351,243
1,730,998,857,687
1,730,998,857,687
NO
0.010027
1,103.983179
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
NAN8c3DjTe0ipS5Mgjf4
will-a-convicted-felon-win-the-2024
Will a convicted felon win the 2024 presidential election?
null
1,702,621,977,381
1,730,966,340,000
1,731,604,041,524
YES
0.970773
10,246.646184
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
FX2qIsGGQnxfb1dC8Rv6
will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-alb-96b88624db6a
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in the second half of 2024?
null
1,706,581,330,206
1,735,626,600,000
1,735,665,538,077
NO
0.016857
9,633.333893
Entertainment
Music & Audio
6wg3vlrnmu
will-jake-paul-win-a-boxing-match-a--cash
Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025?
null
1,729,692,988,832
1,731,875,122,830
1,731,938,494,765
YES
0.996404
4,280.253782
Sports
Individual Sports
iJxmIrDNMBJBqDDzEMw6
will-538-correctly-predict-the-winn
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
null
1,686,002,152,483
1,730,947,034,549
1,730,947,034,549
NO
0.025416
3,702.172232
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
tn0w9skib1
will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1
Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least three weeks in 2024?
null
1,727,218,253,463
1,728,048,243,037
1,728,048,243,037
NO
0.02
10,950.036157
Finance
Markets & Trading
1p91gnmil9
will-richard-ngo-still-be-working-a
Will Richard Ngo still be working at OpenAI in 2025?
null
1,722,927,358,572
1,731,557,277,938
1,731,557,277,938
NO
0.014837
7,927.058633
Technology
Tech Industry & Business
zbbc6ylmhm
will-fox-news-call-the-2024-electio
Will Fox News call the 2024 election on election night?
null
1,723,797,017,744
1,730,875,939,925
1,730,875,939,925
YES
0.989244
26,482.572168
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
VIJNOO522N5m7bjHHlyy
-2024-ncaaf-will-either-michigan-or
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will either Michigan or Washington appear in the next National Championship game?
null
1,704,864,893,039
1,733,873,494,843
1,733,873,494,843
NO
0.01
2,395.335108
Sports
College Sports
iiialwbrn2
will-donald-trump-flip-a-state
Will Donald Trump flip a state?
null
1,728,249,333,186
1,730,782,740,000
1,730,898,011,867
YES
0.85
12,321.805832
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
fnupjwbc6n
will-hazel-upload-again-on-her-main
Will hazel upload again on her main channel before the end of the year?
null
1,722,926,198,758
1,727,809,608,669
1,727,809,608,669
YES
0.92
2,401
Entertainment
Celebrity & Pop Culture
lvz6iOofXKFkA7qGxJmh
will-shelley-moore-capito-endorse-m
Will Shelley Moore Capito endorse Mike Pence?
null
1,685,735,327,202
1,731,128,340,000
1,731,875,010,485
NO
0.00767
2,643.976083
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
aah2qhc0d2
will-israel-launch-an-attack-on-ira
Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024?
null
1,729,498,802,025
1,729,905,865,245
1,729,905,865,245
YES
0.99
12,822.682905
Geopolitics
Global Conflicts
wbqg81bf1w
trump-vote-share-in-butler-county-p
Trump vote share in Butler County, PA >= 70%?
null
1,728,517,799,298
1,731,092,665,209
1,731,092,665,209
NO
0.100095
2,100
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
JSdVEejrLehONfH5kIFp
will-openai-fundstartbuy-an-ai-chip
Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024?
null
1,703,616,617,825
1,735,681,316,900
1,735,681,322,917
NO
0.039679
32,985.836357
Technology
Tech Industry & Business
LI9At9nhLl
willw-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-dC5EE890L5
WillW the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 7 than it closed on Nov 6?
null
1,730,927,098,450
1,731,013,316,314
1,731,013,316,314
YES
0.99
1,088.381906
Finance
Markets & Trading
a37wijux9n
will-leyline-of-resonance-be-banned
Will Leyline of Resonance be banned in any official constructed MTG format by December 31st, 2024?
null
1,726,591,933,766
1,729,616,287,687
1,729,616,287,687
YES
0.99
3,709.908412
Entertainment
Gaming
pFH25WfpIObivtRor29r
9-some-of-the-hype-and-herd-mentali
9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024
null
1,703,511,673,629
1,734,453,664,214
1,734,453,664,214
NO
0.01
9,772.319962
Finance
Markets & Trading
Inu2gyy86R
will-trump-post-stop-the-count-in-t
Will Trump post “Stop the Count” in the days following the election?
null
1,730,746,703,750
1,731,225,540,000
1,731,277,795,487
NO
0.01
27,531.288538
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
DlCVBJZA5OUz0uN40sCc
do-lawmakers-still-make-laws
Do lawmakers still make laws? 🏛️👩‍⚖️👨‍⚖️
null
1,703,823,506,623
1,734,208,206,539
1,734,208,206,539
YES
0.972526
6,102.384183
Politics
Government Structure
XdYULuBu8ygCTPhQIi6c
will-trump-choose-marjorie-taylor-g
Will Trump choose Marjorie Taylor Green as a running mate in for the 2024 presidential election?
null
1,705,321,807,327
1,730,576,371,774
1,730,576,371,774
NO
0.01
1,430.380595
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
4l535of0dj
will-trump-win-michigan-in-the-2024--cash
Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election?
null
1,727,335,224,801
1,731,050,569,318
1,731,050,569,318
YES
0.9901
8,180.623811
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
wvt2bwYrWGX1xB8YRGzX
will-aapl-launch-its-own-modem-in-t
Will AAPL launch its own modem in the 2024 iPhone?
null
1,690,910,983,915
1,728,368,811,318
1,728,368,811,318
NO
0.11
1,036.765962
Technology
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
ZAalhnJj93DDs1ij3TD1
will-the-top-chatbot-in-2025-think
Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?
null
1,702,155,731,815
1,726,719,433,310
1,726,719,433,310
YES
0.9
7,112.082996
Technology
Emerging Technologies
83qt5j1yyf
will-kamala-lead-trump-in-both-538
Will Kamala lead Trump in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd?
null
1,726,347,283,422
1,726,927,706,788
1,726,927,706,788
YES
0.99
14,449.299328
Politics
Elections & Campaigns
kPDxFAh31lEpJELe1cXg
in-the-next-6-months-will-it-be-pub
In the next 6 months, will it be publicly confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike are working on a project together?
null
1,715,755,590,619
1,731,657,540,000
1,731,670,120,507
NO
0.01
22,064.76619
Technology
Tech Industry & Business
RUabTM4FfThaIog7UjJ6
will-sota-on-math-in-sep-2024-utili
Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?
null
1,664,378,957,758
1,727,755,140,000
1,727,821,057,418
NO
0.42
4,362.784921
Technology
Emerging Technologies
8pXRC6vbhwRfuPxltKaj
will-colorado-have-abortion-as-a-re
Will Colorado have abortion as a referendum question in 2024?
null
1,701,702,348,507
1,730,825,880,000
1,731,185,717,484
YES
0.977482
1,087.503991
Politics
Public Policy & Social Issues
xl4yrxopfy
-2024-ncaaf-will-florida-defeat-mis
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat Mississippi State?
null
1,726,919,463,223
1,726,947,093,054
1,726,947,093,054
YES
0.99
9,135.38554
Sports
Team Sports
UNy6qAOAAh
-2024-ncaaf-will-florida-defeat-lsu
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat LSU?
null
1,731,690,108,657
1,731,803,145,012
1,731,803,145,012
YES
0.99
9,230.309154
Sports
Team Sports
lgy7wtu9sz
will-llama-32-be-released-by-octobe
Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024?
null
1,722,750,607,947
1,728,953,914,577
1,728,953,914,577
NO
0.02
68,011.047496
Technology
Emerging Technologies
ybyp1sxjkl
will-nebraska-become-a-winnertakesa
Will Nebraska become a winner-takes-all state before the 2024 US election?
null
1,727,100,016,639
1,730,811,540,000
1,730,837,204,246
NO
0.01079
1,090
Politics
Elections & Campaigns