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Will bitcoin be higher than $65,850 at Sep 29th 5:20pm ET?
YES
Will JD Vance be the Vice Presidential candidate on Election Day 2024?
YES
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Oregon?
NO
Will Trump beat Biden in every New York Times/Sienna national poll before election day?
YES
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 3 than it closed on Dec 2?
YES
Will Xi Jinping visit the White House by the end of 2024?
NO
MLB Postseason 2024 ⚾️ 10/5 NLDS Game 1 Mets @ Phillies: Will there be a run scored in the 1st Inning?
YES
Will any major social platform integrate OpenAI’s metadata to visibly indicate AI-generated images in 2024?
YES
Will RFK Jr be removed from the ballot in North Carolina?
YES
3) The terms “large language model” and “LLM” will become less common.
NO
If @DrAllyLouks posts her X income, will she make more than $1000 this time?
NO
Will Joe Manchin be on a third-party presidential ticket in 2024?
NO
Will Joe Biden resign the US Presidency before the election November 5, 2024?
NO
Will Dade Phelan win in the November 5 Texas general election?
YES
Will one candidate win all 7 swing states?
YES
NFL Week 16 (Dec 22 2024): Will the Seattle Seahawks (home) beat the Minnesota Vikings (away)?
NO
Will Iran/proxies bomb major civilian infrastructure in Israel before November
NO
NFL Week 11 (Nov 17 2024): Will the Tennessee Titans (home) beat the Minnesota Vikings (away)?
NO
Will Kim Kardashian attend a Baltimore Ravens game in September 2024?
NO
Will 49ers win Superbowl 59
NO
Will Ilhan Omar win re-election to the House in 2024?
YES
Will Donald Trump be on the 2024 general election ballot in Hawaii?
YES
Will Wikileaks post a new leak before the election?
NO
Will Telegram founder Pavel Durov "jump bail" and leave France before October 1st?
NO
Will UFO/UAP be brought up by any candidate during televised debates Democratic or Republican prez primaries?
NO
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?
NO
Will NeurIPS have an acceptance rate of at least 25% in 2024?
YES
Will the U.S. have a Republican president before 2038?
YES
Is Lily Ashwood (@lilyofashwood on X) an AI?
NO
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released in October?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter outlive the current Pope?
NO
One month from today Will Kamala be above Donald Trump on Polymarket?
NO
Will the European Commission propose EU regulation banning all types of cages for egg-laying hens by Oct 31st 2024?
NO
Will Trump endorse DeSantis (for president)?
NO
A Tesla Supercharger in central NV comes online through 2024
YES
Will Bitcoin Hit $100,000 Before The End Of 2024?
YES
Will Gladiator 2 achieve a Tomatometer score of ≥70%?
YES
London Breed is re-elected Mayor of San Francisco in 2024
NO
Will anyone say "childless cat ladies" during the VP debate?
NO
Will October 2024 be the hottest October ever? [NCEI]
NO
Will Trump ever run as an independent in the 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100K USD before the end of 2025?
YES
Does Caroline Ellison get >=1 years sentence?
YES
Will the Raiders trade Davante Adams in 2024?
YES
Bounty market: will bounties be reenabled this week?
YES
Will Daniel Ricciardo finish ahead of Oliver Bearman in the 2024 WDC?
YES
Well the S&{P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 11 than it closed on Oct 4---(5751.07)?
YES
Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before Dec 1?
NO
Will Manifold reach 15,000 daily active users (7-day average) before Oct 1st?
NO
Will Taylor Swift make 3 or more Tweeter(X) posts in Sep 2024?
NO
⚾️ World Series Game 5 Dodgers @ Yankees: Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?
YES
Will any foreign bank loan Trump money to pay any of his civil judgements before the general election?
NO
Will California AI bill (SB-1047) be signed into law with the "kill switch" requirement?
NO
Will a fourth film receive a CinemaScore of D+ or worse in 2024?
NO
Bitcoin $75K in 2024?
YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
NO
Will Destiny get unbanned from Twitch before October 2024?
NO
Will a Democrat win Maine's second district in the 2024 POTUS election?
NO
Will "Joker: Folie à Deux" gross more during its second weekend than "Morbius"? (>$10,201,332)
NO
Will Donald Trump get 222 or more electoral votes in the 2024 election?
YES
Will Tucker Carlson interview Donald Trump or JD Vance before November 2024?
YES
Will Kamala Harris lose NC but win a different Trump 2020 state?
NO
Will major event occur that triggers the implementation of covid-like US lockdown before US Presidential Election 2024?
NO
Will Democrats win a majority in the Wisconsin State Assembly in 2024?
NO
Will a Republican win Arizona in the 2024 POTUS election?
YES
Will Democrats win more House seats in Pennsylvania than Republicans in 2024?
NO
Will the Nikkei 225 close today higher than its previous day close?
NO
[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
NO
Will Elon Musk donate at least $100 million to a Republican-aligned PAC or campaign in 2024?
YES
Will congressional hearings on UAPs and disclosure occur in November 2024?
YES
If the Republican nominee wins Michigan, will they win the presidency (2024)?
YES
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Kansas City Chiefs (home) beat the Los Angeles Chargers (away)?
YES
By the end of 2024, will any new 2024 seasonal TV anime have hit 1 million people who have listed it on MAL?
NO
Will RFK Jr. get above 5% in the 2024 Presidential election?
NO
Will the google trend "Border" reach a new peak before the 2024 election?
NO
Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?
NO
Will the NYT run a front-page headline questioning Trump's mental fitness before the election?
NO
Will Apple remain the largest company through October?
NO
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Nov 2024 surpass 4M views?
YES
Will Xi Jinping visit any country in Africa by the end of 2024?
YES
Will Georgia stay blue in 2024
NO
Will Acro Trip (TV) rate 7.00 or higher on MyAnimeList?
NO
Will Gary Gensler resign from his position before 2024 ends?
YES
Will Elon Musk and Nicolás Maduro schedule a fight before the end of 2024?
NO
Will Taylor Swift attend a campaign event for Joe Biden in 2024?
NO
Daily coinflip
NO
NFL Week 8 (Oct 27 2024): Will the Washington Commanders (home) beat the Chicago Bears (away)?
YES
[Metaculus] Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul... before October 31, 2024?
NO
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of Halloween?
YES
Will the Panama Canal be closed for at least 24 hours in 2024 due to a man-made disaster?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter die in 2024?
YES
Will Kamala Harris win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College?
NO
Will the Twins win 87 or more games in the 2024 MLB regular season?
NO
Will any sweepstakes market cross $10,000 in total volume in 2024?
YES
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Georgia be greater than in 2020 (0.3%)?
YES
Will Kamala Harris appear on the Joe Rogan podcast before the November 2024 election?
NO
Will Manifold think that Kamala would beat Trump in a game of chess if both have one month to prepare?
YES
Will World Chess Championship 2024 be a close match?
YES
SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?
NO
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
NO